Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

6 Receptions

Sunday in Seattle, Derrick Henry had a career-high 6 receptions, his previous high-water mark was only 4 receptions. He now has 9 catches in two games this year – his career-high in a season are 19 catches in 2020.  Perhaps, however, I am burying the lead, much like Henry buried the Seahawks defense in the second half of the game. Henry finished yesterday’s game with an absolutely gaudy (albeit overtime aided) stat line. 35 carries for 182 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, 6 receptions on 6 targets for 55 receiving yards. This gave Henry a final fantasy total of 44.7 points, a single-game total that’s nearly 10 points higher than any other player in the NFL this season. Congrats on the win, everybody who has Derrick Henry on their team. Henry holds the lead in fantasy points among all non-QB players, and also leads the league in rushing yards, carries, rushing TDs, and touches. He’s picked right up on the pace he had last season and even has expanded on his receiving game, making it possible for him to be the #1 RB in all of fantasy football this year, even with a healthy Christian McCaffrey around.

2.01 Christian McCaffreys

Or would it be McCafferies? It’s not important. Just geeking out on Henry’s amazing 44.7-point performance, which just more than twice as many points as the second-best RB of the week, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey does lead the league in yards from scrimmage with 324 already (170 rushing, 154 receiving) – only one other RB, Kenyan Drake, has over 100 receiving yards through two games. Among other players who scored nearly half as many points as Derrick Henry were Tony Pollard, Cordarrelle Patterson, and J.D. McKissic – none of whom are rostered in our drinkfive.com league. Now, this is mostly me calling out our league, since both Pollard (75% owned) and McKissic (58% owned) should really be rostered. Cordarrelle Patterson was definitely a surprise to fantasy players this week, finishing with 21.4 fantasy points and scoring both on the ground and through the air, the first time he’s done that since his rookie season in 2013.

50.84 Fantasy Points

Through two weeks, the QB5 on the season is Daniel Jones, and he’s still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues. Jones is third in rushing yards among QBs, has 2 rushing scores, and perhaps most importantly, has just one fumble and zero interceptions on the season. Jones is taking clear steps forward in improving his game, at least as far as fantasy football goes. I suppose that fans of the actual New York Football Giants might have differing opinions. Elsewhere at the QB position, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins both find themselves in the top 10 of fantasy points, outscoring guys who were drafted way ahead of them like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Ryan Tannehill. As of the time I’m writing this, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in his Week 2 game yet, so it’s not really fair to pile on to his 3.32 point performance to open the season (though to be fair to me, that’s a really small target to try and pile on to).

4 Receiving Touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski is the early league leader in receiving touchdowns, nabbing two in each of his first two games. He’s also got 12 receptions through those two games, and he’s never finished a season above 5.6 receptions per game. It’s hard to say that this is a renaissance for Gronk, since nearly everyone expects his production to fall off at some point due to all the wear and tear he’s had through the years. I will, however, keep rolling him out at TE until he shows me that he’s going to slow down. Currently, he’s the TE2, but only behind Travis Kelce by 0.1 points, making them essentially both TE1’s on the year. They are way ahead of Darren Waller’s impressive 30.5 points on the year, who is in turn way ahead of the rest of the pack, which is in the low 20’s (pending T.J. Hockenson’s performance tonight).

12 Kickers with Double-digit Points

I avoided them last week, but you can’t dodge a kicker forever, so let’s see how they’re doing. This week was excellent for kickers, with a cool dozen players scoring 10 points or more, so great news, right? Surely, you started one of those kickers. Well, maybe not. In our drinkfive.com league, only 3 of those 12 kickers were rostered for last weeks’ games. 7 of those kickers were owned in 12% of Fleaflicker leagues or less, proving once again that this is probably the hardest position to predict on a week-to-week basis. Week 2’s leader, Graham Gano, is a name that has been around forever, yet he is on only 12% of teams, while going a perfect 5/5 on FGs and 2/2 on XPs for 23.2 total fantasy points. Remember folks, don’t just go for the guys who have big names, go for the guys who are on teams that cannot score touchdowns! Like Gano or the K3 on the week, Nick Folk of the Patriots. Of course, Folk missed an extra point, so his job is likely in jeopardy with a coach like Belichick.

Bring out your dead! It's one of the worst weeks in recent memory in the NFL for injuries (please don't count them on me), so let's have a not-so-quick roundup of all of the fantasy relevant guys who we need to monitor going in to Week 6.

Quarterbacks

• Russell Wilson - Wilson’s injury on Thursday night prevented him from completing the game. He has a torn tendon as well as a fracture/dislocation of his middle finger on his throwing hand. He had surgery to repair it and is expected to be out until Week 10 at the earliest. Seattle has a bye in Week 9. In relief, Geno Smith immediately led the Seahawks on a 98 yard scoring drive, so that was encouraging. The Seahawks fantasy players remain startable, but get a bit of a downgrade across the board. Geno Smith should be picked up in superflex leagues as bye weeks are going to start hitting everybody.

• Daniel Jones - Jones suffered a concussion and was visibly woozy/dazed/stumbling on the field after the play. He was later carted off the field and Mike Glennon finished the game. Glennon finished the game with enough passing action to encourage you to start Kadarius Toney, and possibly Sterling Shepard if he returns. Jones did not practice today but is apparently “on track with everything” according to head coach Joe Judge. Jones returning is a bump for Toney, Booker and Shepard, the only likely fantasy starters on the Giants.

• Trey Lance - Lance suffered a sprained knee on Sunday. So far, his timeline is very murky because the 49ers have a bye this week, so are not required to report any injury statuses. Jimmy G could return based on Lance’s play as a passer this year so far, so this situation is clear as mud. Pay attention to who’s practicing with the ones next week to see who the starter will be in Week 7.

• Tom Brady - Oh if wishing could make it true. But seriously, Tom Brady hurt his thumb and has a quick turnaround on Thursday night. All reports indicate that he’s not 100% but will be starting tomorrow. Right now that offense is working at nearly peak efficiency, so even 75% of Tom Brady should result in plenty of fantasy production from the normal guys.

Running Backs

• Saquon Barkley - Barkley had a sprained ankle that swelled up pretty quick and was on display for TV on Sunday. Nice camera work, guys. He apparently dodged any major injury and we do not have a timetable for his return. Since this is the case, you should go into Week 6 assuming that he will not play and it will be Devontae Booker in his place, who scored 2 TDs in relief in Week 5.

• Damien Harris - Harris exited Sunday’s game twice with a chest injury. He also fumbled on the goal line, but was still given work, showing just how much Belichick thinks of the other RBs on his roster. Harris did not practice today but is day to day at the moment, so he will probably be fine to go on Sunday since he avoided a significant injury. Keep an eye on his practice status, and he’s an RB2/Flex option if he starts on Sunday against the Cowboys.

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire - CEH has been put on the IR list already with an MCL sprain, so he’s out for at least 3 weeks. Darrel Williams should be the main RB in his place, getting almost all of the work going forward. Jerick McKinnon is also available for the Chiefs, but he only has 4 total touches on the season, so he is firmly a backup to Williams for now.

• Christian McCaffrey - CMC was practicing last week and came down to a game time decision and ultimately he did not play on Sunday. This week was his originally targeted return time, so I like his chances to return in Week 6 against the Vikings. He practiced again today. If he goes, he’s going to get his normal workload. If he doesn’t, then you can safely roll Chuba Hubbard out there for one more week. Keep an eye on the inactives ahead of gametime before making the final decision on this one. 

• Chris Carson - Carson missed Week 5 with a neck injury, but avoided the IR which should mean that he’s back soon. He did not practice today, but Pete Carroll said that the plan is for him to return to practice tomorrow. With Russell Wilson out for a while, it’s a great spot for the Seattle RBs to get even more carries than normal. If Carson cannot go, it’ll be Alex Collins for another week - he received 15 carries last week and has Flex value against the Steelers on Sunday night.

• Joe Mixon / Samaje Perine - These two split carries in Sunday’s game 12/15 with more of a 60/30 snap percentage split. However, after the game, Perine was placed on the covid list and that sets up Mixon to have a full workload on this Sunday against the lowly Lions. If you have Mixon, it should be back to normal for him. Perine is droppable in most leagues.

• Dalvin Cook - Cook missed the game in Week 5, and Alexander Mattison proved once again to be the best backup RB in fantasy football. Cook did practice all week before being ruled out, so even though he practiced today, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be starting this week. The Vikings are on bye in Week 7, so it might be that they hold him out through the bye week just to be sure.

Wide Receivers

• Tyreek Hill - Hill was reported to have a knee injury which turned out to be a quad contusion. He is not practicing today, and obviously a leg injury on this speedster is something that needs to be treated seriously. Keep an eye on his status through the week. If he does not practice, I do not expect him to play on Sunday. Their matchup against Washington is juicy though - they’re giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs, so I would start him if he is going to play. If he does not, Mecole Hardman, who was second on the team with 12 targets last week, should be the main beneficiary. Travis Kelce will be heavily involved as usual and Darrel Williams should see plenty of targets. It’ll be up to one of the many other targets on the team to step up - 6 other players saw 2 or fewer targets on Sunday. Perhaps a place for Josh Gordon to step up? Unlikely, but it’s fun to feed into the hype.

• Kenny Golladay - Here’s our token Giants entry for this position as well. They really got battered on Sunday. Golladay suffered a hyperextended knee, and he was finally getting warmed up this season on the Giants too. He’s expected to miss at least week 6, but was not placed on the IR. Kadarius Toney is the new hotness on the team, and Sterling Shepard could be coming back with Darius Slayton, this muddling the target share for the Giants. Daniel Jones’ status is also an issue for the WRs.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster - You know an injury is serious when the team immediately signs whoever is on the top of the free agent pile - this time it was Anthony Miller. Juju is going to have shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of 2021. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool will continue to operate as the 1-2 on that offense. Juju was not contributing much this year, and was not fantasy relevant anymore, anyways.

• A.J. Brown / Julio Jones - A.J. Brown returned last week and was on the field for 64% of snaps. He didn’t have any setbacks, so he should be back above 80% next week. Julio missed his second straight game last week and it was a hamstring injury, the typical kind of injury he’s had all his career. He is practicing today, so he might be back, but I’m not enthusiastic about starting him immediately once he returns. For now this team is all Derrick Henry and there’s not enough production for two starting WRs anyways.

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).

The Carolina Panthers have officially traded star running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, according to a recent tweet by Adam Schefter and announced during a rare Thursday Night Football matchup that was actually high-scoring and entertaining! In return for CMC the Panthers will receive 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in 2023, and a fifth-rounder in 2024.

Stunner: Panthers are trading Pro-Bowl RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for draft picks, sources tell ESPN.

McCaffrey returns to the Bay Area, where he attended Stanford. pic.twitter.com/R474r3eSkv

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 21, 2022

After losing starting running back Elijah Mitchell in the opening game against the Chicago Bears with a sprained MCL, the 49ers have struggled to fill the position and often employ a rotation of players. This move certainly signifies a strong push for the team to go deep into the playoffs and will be looked at positively by fantasy football team managers as the 49ers have far more talent on the roster with the likes of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

It remains to be seen how quickly Christian McCaffrey will be phased into the offense, but I'm guessing immediately. Sometimes a star player moving to a new offensive scheme and playbook can develop slowly, but all signs point to the fires burning hot here with CMC the uncontested lead back for the 49ers - one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. Look out, NFC West. Look out NFC.