Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back for the 2021 NFL season! This year's survivor pool has 1274 entries with two of those entries being my own. I already got one in the bag after that nail-biter on Thursday night. Normally I'd prefer to avoid Thursday games, but the first game of the season with Tommy touchdowns with weeks to prepare, I couldn't resist. However, that game was not my top choice for the week.

My top choice for this first week is the Los Angeles Rams over the Chicago Bears in the opening of the brand new SoFi stadium on Sunday night. The Bears defense should be solid as always and may slow down Matthew Stafford, but I can't imagine an Andy Dalton lead offense producing enough points against an Aaron Donald-led defense to get a win. I'm sure all the Bears fans will be rooting for a quick, merciful death for Dalton so they can transition immediately to rookie Justin Fields. I expect the stadium to be loud as Rams fans were already in midseason drunken fighting mode the first preseason game and now they will see real footballing!

Call me crazy, but I want to avoid picking the 49ers over the Lions in Jarred Goff's debut. I wanted to stick to home teams this opening week and get a feel for the teams since everything is held pretty close to the vest these days in the preseason.

Cheers! And happy footballing!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Offensive Plays

The Cincinnati Bengals had only 42 plays (excluding 4^th down) on offense against the Steelers on Sunday and showed me that perhaps quantity isn’t everything. On last week’s podcast, I stressed that the Bengals just need to throw the ball a lot more in order to get their offense going. After all, their strength is really in the receiving core they have built. So, Joe Burrow throwing 18 passes is not what I would have considered a ticket to victory. It would appear, however, that efficiency is everything. Burrow’s final stat line of 14/18 for 172 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT) was plenty for victory, compared to Ben Roethlisberger going 38/58 for 318 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. That’s right, Ben threw the ball an astonishing 40 times more than his opponent. Hell, he targeted Najee Harris 19 times – that’s more than Burrow’s total attempts! So, I still think that the Bengals need to throw the ball in order to have success this year – and I’m sort of backed up in the stats with 3 TDs through the air, but I certainly got a big lesson in how important it is to be efficient on the football field.

66 Yard Field Goal

Usually, kickers are buried at the bottom of my column, but this week they certainly deserve a more prominent position. First of all, congrats to Justin Tucker, who finally broke the NFL record for the longest made field goal at 66 yards. As the best kicker in history, (sorry, Adam Vinatieri), it feels like it was only inevitable that Tucker would eventually break this record – it was just a matter of being given a chance. Jacksonville taught us all a lesson this week about why you don’t necessarily attempt field goals that long. At the end of the first half on Sunday, Matt Prater lined up to attempt a 68-yard field goal, which fell short and was returned 109 yards by Jamal Agnew of the Jags for a touchdown as time expired in the half. Apparently, it’s really hard to stop a guy on a return when you have a kicker, a holder, and 9 linemen on the field – rather than your normal kicking team. Agnew wasn’t touched once he crossed his own 40-yard line. It was an eventful day for kickers across the league. 10 kickers finished with 10+ fantasy points, and we were treated to a night cap of Mason Crosby kicking a 51-yard field goal to cap yet another Aaron Rodgers comeback.

7 Players with Rush Attempts

The San Fransisco 49ers are currently on the hunt for a starting RB. Trey Sermon was the starter in name last night, and did receive 10 carries, but that wasn’t even quite half of the 21 carries attempted by the team in the game. Six other players carried the ball for the 49ers, none of them doing so very effectively. Overall, the team had 21 carries for 67 yards, good for just 3.2 ypc. At least they did find the end zone twice. The 49ers need a featured back to make their offense run correctly, and they have been decimated by injury this year, so unless someone can step up into the role, it’s going to be a long year in San Fransisco. Hell, they had more players attempt a rush than catch a pass. I’m not sure the last time that happened, but it feels like some 1940’s football right there. The Packers had the opposite true – targeting 9 different players (technically…) while only two players had rushing attempts. That technicality? Well, I’m sure that Aaron Rodgers didn’t mean to target himself when he caught a pass off a deflection for 4 yards.

47 Total Yards

The Bears offense reached new lows on Sunday against a Cleveland Browns defense that feasted on rookie QB Justin Fields. The Bears total yardage – basically a net total, gains minus losses, was 47 for the entire team. Fields had 68 total passing yards, and lost 67 yards over the course of the 9 sacks that he had. No player on the Bears had more than 2 receptions. The Browns were able to run the ball 42 times, while the Bears attempted a combined 33 passes and rushes. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both outgained the Bears with their rushing yardage totals, and then Hunt did it again through the air with 74 more yards. Odell Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup, and also outgained the entire Chicago offense. Throughout the league, we had a number of plays that outgained the entire Bears offense on a single snap of the ball. Justin Tucker’s 66-yard record breaking FG, Mason Crosby’s game winning FG (51 yards), Antonio Gibson’s 73-yard touchdown reception, Jamal Angew’s 109-yard return TD, and many other field goals and other big plays. The point I’m trying to make here is that the Bears gained just 47 more yards of offense than I did on Sunday, and I barely left the couch.

12 QBs over 20 Fantasy Points

Time for a quick QB roundup. Josh Allen led the way this week, scoring 5 total touchdowns in the second straight game where his team put up 35+ points on their opponent – this time it was on the Washington defense that was very respected last year. Speaking of Football Teams, capital F, capital T, Taylor Heinicke just put up his second straight game above 20 fantasy points. It’s looking like he could take the starting job for the entire season, and he’s only owned in 27% of Fleaflicker leagues, so hit that wire! Landing just outside this top 12 was Kyler Murray, putting up just 19.54 points in Jacksonville – though he still keeps the season lead among all QBs with 89.2 fantasy points through three games. Justin Herbert finally has a signature win in his young career, and had a huge fantasy day. Leading a late TD drive, Herbert put up 4 total TDs and broke the 30-point mark. Elsewhere at QB, Sam Darnold is averaging 21.6 ppg, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 16.22 points per game, and Tom Brady has 4 carries for 20 yards. Nice.

The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.