Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Following the NFL during the offseason can be a long and tedious pursuit, interrupted by brief moments of excitement when your team signs someone. Now that most of the moves have been made, there’s little left to do but wait for training camp and preseason to start. With our downtime, we’re looking at each team, one division at a time, to look at the fantasy impact of each relevant player on each team and how their value has changed with the team’s changes. This time around, it’s the NFC North.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 6/9/15, NFC North Spotlight) 

Green Bay Packers:

Add/Re-sign –

Randall Cobb, (4 years for $40 mil)

Scott Tolzien, (1 year, $1.35 Mil)

Kyle Sebetic, Safety, from the Giants (their ONLY FA signing this offseason)

Ty Montgomery WR, (3^rd round draft pick)

Departures –

Jarrett Boykin, (Panthers)

Matt Flynn, (Patriots)

DuJuan Harris, (Vikings)

Brandon Bostick, (Vikings via waivers)

Issues:

The Packers never seem to add many, if any, impactful players through free agency. Nearly their entire roster is built on draft picks (I believe at one point last year, their only player they didn’t draft was Julius Peppers). The Pack had a trip to the Super Bowl already booked, but Russell Wilson had other plans for them.

Fantasy-wise, there isn’t a whole lot changing on the Packers. The only notable departure is Jarrett Boykin, who was only a WR3 of questionable weekly output last year. Expect Rodgers, Cobb and Nelson to all return to the top 10 of their positions (maybe top 15 for the WR’s, but Nelson and Cobb did finish 2^nd and 6^th last year, respectively). Look for Davante Adams to pick up the WR3 work, and I wouldn’t expect much production out of the TE position, as is tradition in Green Bay lately.

Eddie Lacy is once again a first round talent, and despite his slow start to last season, still finished 6^th overall for points, finding the end zone a satisfying 13 times. Last year, the top 4 fantasy players on the Packers were probably better than any 4 you could find on any other team. In standard scoring, Rodgers & Nelson finished 2^nd and Cobb and Lacy finished 6^th. That is reminiscent of the Broncos from the 2013. While that team did have a slight drop-off, they did not disappoint when it came time to tally up the points at the end of the year. I expect that Green Bay will be able to repeat their success of last year.

Detroit Lions:

Add/Re-sign –

Jeremy Ross WR, (re-sign)

Lance Moore WR, (signed to 1 year contract)

Ameer Abdullah RB, (2^nd round pick)

Haloti Ngata DT, (acquired in trade from Baltimore)

Departures –

Reggie Bush, (cut, now on SF)

Ndamukong Suh, (left as a FA, signed with Miami)

Issues:

The Lions made the playoffs last year, but were the victim of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo making ridiculous highlight reel plays (which they fell victim to the following week). It’s hard to say that they have made enough moves to help even improve their team, let alone pass the Packers for the division in 2015.

Matt Stafford will still be a solid QB1, Calvin Johnson will feel like a steal when he’s not the first WR off the board in your draft (he’s still WR1 talent) and Golden Tate should probably wind up starting every week. Tate had 99 catches last year, with Megatron (71 rec) missing only 3 games (though he was a decoy in a few he did play).

The RB situation is still sketchy, though removing Bush at least removes one of the more knee-jerk options that were available. Joique Bell, Theo Riddick (3^rd downs) and Ameer Abdullah will probably split most carries to start the season, with the stronger back, if one emerges, getting a larger percentage of the carries as the season goes on. This is going to change a lot, but with a pass first team like the Lions, I wouldn’t waste too high of a draft pick on one of their rotating RB’s. The one exception to this is if Bell keeps sliding into the doghouse. If so, go for Abdullah, but remember, temper your expectations on rookies!

Their TE’s Pettigrew, Ebron and Fauria can be fun, but none are THE guy, so stay away from them as every week starters. Their D/ST should still be strong, adding Ngata and losing Suh, but I prefer streaming D’s anyways, so don’t draft them high.

Minnesota Vikings

Add/Re-sign –

Matt Asiata RB, (re-sign 1 year)

Shaun Hill QB, (2 year 6.5 mil, #2 guy now)

Mike Wallace WR, (via trade with Miami)

Du Juan Harris RB, (FA via GB)

Brandon Bostick TE, (waiver via GB)

MyCole Pruitt (TE) and Stefon Diggs (WR) are their highest offensive (fantasy) draft picks, from the 5^th round

Departures –

Christian Ponder, (OAK)

Greg Jennings, (released, signed by Miami)

Issues:

The story of the Vikings early in 2015 is all about the return of Adrian Peterson. I know I wouldn’t want to line up opposite Purple Jesus after he’s been kept out of football for an entire year. He’s probably in the best shape and health of his life and will make an immediate impact on this team, greater than all of their signings combined.

Last year’s rookie QB, Teddy Bridgewater, will have a few more tools at his disposal and should take another step from last year. His rookie campaign was average – throwing more TD’s than INT’s does show promise going forward. Bridgewater won’t enter August as a QB 1 or 2, but could easily finish the year as a strong QB2, possibly approaching or exceeding the Andy Dalton Line.

AP is clearly the only RB to bother with on the team. I don’t even think I’d entertain a handcuff in this case, as superhumans don’t tend to get hurt like us mortals. Their WR core is much more of a toss-up. Between Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and the field, I really have no good feel for who will emerge as the consistent WR on their team. It could wind up looking like the Seahawks where none of them are viable fantasy options, due to a conservative passing game and spreading the ball around when they do throw it. Kyle Rudolph at TE might end up being the best receiver on the team stats-wise.

Chicago Bears

Add/Re-sign –

John Fox, (head coach) and Ryan Pace, (GM)

Zach Miller TE, (1 year extension, played well in 2014 preseason, hurt in the preseason)

Jimmy Clausen QB, (1 year extension)

Jacquizz Rodgers RB, (1 year, from Atlanta)

Kevin White WR, (1^st round, 9^th overall)

Eddie Royal WR, (Reunited with Cutler)

Departures –

Mark Trestman (good riddance!)

Brandon Marshall (even gooder riddance!)

Issues:

The Bears have many issues they’re carrying over from 2014, but they will look like a different team in 2015. Any time a new regime takes control, they give everything a make-over, especially when the previous season was a disappointing (too light?) 5-11.

Jay Cutler has been on the team for 6 years now, and he still feels like he needs to somehow win over Chicago fans to feel comfortable. If it hasn’t happened by now, it’s not happening. Cutler is the best QB the Bears have the opportunity to start this year, and probably next year too, so just get used to it and hope he doesn’t lead the league in INT’s again. Fewer passes should help Cutler, as in 2015 he had his most pass attempts since he joined the Bears in 2009.

The Bears instantly addressed the departure of Brandon Marshall in the draft, picking Kevin White from West Virginia 9^th overall. He should be able to have a near immediate impact and could be going in redraft leagues as a WR3/WR4, but we’ll see how he fits in a few preseason games first. Alshon Jeffery immediately moves into a WR1/WR2 position, and Marquess Wilson has some fantasy value as well.

It remains to be seen if Martellus Bennett is going to throw more tantrums for whatever reason. If he settles down, he could be a TE1 in a league where the drop off after the first 5 or so TE’s is very steep. If not, Zach Miller might emerge as an option, since Cutler does seem to like throwing to the TE. Matt Forte will continue to carry the load for Chicago, and even though he felt overvalued last year, he finished 4^th overall for RB scoring. Is he the new Frank Gore (a guy who should be dropping off, but never does)?

TNF: 9/24/15: Washington Redskins vs. N.Y. Giants
Well, chalk up one for the N.Y. Giants, they cut their losing streak at the expense of the Redskins, 32-21. I guess Eli can talk about his 1st win of the season while Big Bro. Peyton talks about # 3 so far. I'm sure it's been some quite dinners at the folks house these last few weeks. In their previous losses against Dallas & Atlanta, the Giants fell apart in the 4th Qtr & loss. This time they were dominant in the 4th and held on to the victory. The Giants scored in almost every way possible, beginning with Jennings blocking Tress Way's punt for a safety on the Redskins opening series. Andre Williams scored on a 1yd run, Josh Brown kicked 3 FGs and Beckham toasted Bashaud Breeland to settle matters. For Washington, Rashad Ross returned the kickoff 101yds for the final score. Gruden still sticking to his "no QB controversy" every chance he gets, so then, you know it is. This is Washington's 5th straight lost to the Giants. Things just might be looking up for the Giants with Dallas being 2-0 who now have major folks out and Philly is 0-2. The Redskins, well, today, they were just here. Nuff said about that. E. Manning threw for 279yds & 2 TDs, R. Jennings had 11 carries for 32yds & R. Randle had 7 receptions for 116yds & 1 TD. K. Cousins threw for 316yds, 1 TD & 2 ints. M. Jones had 11 carries for 38yds & 1 fumble, J. Reed finished up with 6 receptions for 96yds. I heard that RGIII made up to #2 spot. I'm just saying.

TNF: 10/8/15 Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

AARP member Matt Hasselbeck saves the day for the Colts. He teamed up with 34 year old Andre Johnson and hit him for 2 TDs. They tried to give it away but Matt & Andre had taken an extra swig of Geritol and were ready to go. Johnson's 2yd score in the 4th Qtr put them ahead to stay. A. Johnson was released by the Texans in March after 12 seasons with them, he tallied up 6 catches for 77yds & 2 TDs. Hey, it's 25yr old guys who can't do that on a daily basis. Sure it might be he his last year, but he looks like he's going out with a bang. They won 27-20. With 2:08 left in the 2nd Qtr, Nick Novak hit a 36yd FG to finally put the Texan on the score board. The Texans would get the ball one more time in the 2nd QTR with maybe 1 min left.  Hoyer kept moving it down the field, no sooner than I said it, it happened.  Hoyer threw a pretty Hail Mary pass into the end zone with 0 seconds left on the clock and Jaelen Strong caught it.  He was as open as a convict giving testimony to get time off his sentence, LOL.  There were 3-4 Colts around him but they were busy knocking each other around while Strong caught the pass and after the 1pt kick, we had a game 13-10 going into the half. I kept telling Indy that Hoyer was going to throw it. Ryan Mallett wasn't cutting the mustard so they sat him down, early. Oh yeah-Hasselbeck was so ill he couldn’t even speak at meetings Wednesday night, so the injured Andrew Luck spoke for him. Luck was saying that Matt said, "this is your team man, I'm just happy I could help." Yeah right. Luck better be glad Matt is 40 or he would give him a run for the money, just my thoughts. He went to the emergency room on Monday and was discovered to have a really bad bacterial infection. Hasselbeck is 40 and prior to this season, he hadn’t started and won a game in the NFL since 2012. Yet here he is, taking over for Andrew Luck amid a disappointing 0-2 start, leading the Colts to consecutive victories in the division. Same ole story with the Texans, though they tried, they could not win. Mallett, who started for the Texans had the wind knocked out of him on an illegal hit midway through the 2nd Qtr & was replaced by Hoyer. Nuff said about this one. M. Hasselbeck threw for 213yds & 2 TDs. F. Gore had 22 carries for 98yds & 1 TD. T. Hilton, who, 2 years ago that he would be the best receiver to every play in the NFL, had 5 receptions for 88yds. You got a long way to go man. B. Hoyer, threw for 312yds, 2 TDs & 1 int. He received a game ball along with A. Johnson of the Colts for their work today. No rushing yds worth writing, where you at A. Foster? 41yds, that's ridiculous. D. Hopkins had 11 receptions for 169yds. Could you please help out Hilton.

Arizona Cardinal: 4-1

Minnesota Vikings

What’s changed since last year? The core of the Vikings will remain the same this season, with just a few minor changes. Latavius Murray is gone, he’s on the Saints now. That leaves Dalvin Cook as the main running back, though rookie Alexander Mattison (3^rd round) is someone who could see a decent share of carries this season, but more on him and fellow rookie Irv Smith Jr. in a moment. The most important change for the Vikings this year will come if Dalvin Cook can stay healthy all year. He’s only played 14 games in his first two seasons and he needs to stay on the field to be worthy of his ADP 20 (RB11) current draft spot.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There’s not much here as the main core of the Vikings is already well established, but you could keep an eye out for WR Chad Beebe, an UDFA from last year. He’s gotten a lot of hype during practice for making some big catches, but wasn’t heard from in the first preseason game. He also returns punts and holds for the kicker (during practice), so he’s at least making himself valuable for special teams. That being said, he’s not even listed on fantasypros’ ADP list, so no, there are not really any breakout candidates on the Vikings this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? The main fantasy names on the Vikings – Diggs, Thielen and Cook, are all being drafted in the first 4 rounds, so sleepers they are not. I do propose that Kirk Cousins is a sleeper with an ADP of 144 (QB19). Cousins has the talent to be a top 10 guy (the 2^nd highest paid QB this year) and you could essentially just draft him at the very end of a draft and get reasonable production from the QB slot while adding more depth to your other positions. You like that?

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There are potentially 3 fantasy studs on this team, but the one I like the most is Adam Thielen (ADP 26, WR11). Thielen had 142 targets in 2017 and 153 in 2018, showing that he has ridiculous volume coming to him, regardless of who’s at QB. His catch rate went from 64.1% in 2017 to 73.9% in 2018 and his TDs went from 4 to 9 over the same time period. He’s clearly got a good rapport with Cousins and I feel that if he and Cousins are healthy, a WR10 finish is basically his floor for this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? If you’re into streaming QBs, keep an eye out for Kirk Cousins, as his draft spot currently could leave him undrafted in some 10 team leagues. Alexander Mattison is also a guy who could wind up on the waiver wire early in the season. He’s a great handcuff for Dalvin Cook and might just be used in a 2 RB system anyways, similar to the rotation they had with Murray/Cook last year.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Two offensive rookies, Alexander Mattison (ADP 153, RB52) and Irv Smith Jr (ADP 240, TE281) are the guys to check out this year. Mattison was drafted in the third round and he’s not quite relevant at his draft value, however, he is likely to get a decent share of carries this year based on Dalvin Cook’s injury history. He’s certainly going to be involved in the offense and not just taken out of moth balls once Cook gets hurt. Irv Smith Jr was drafted in the 2^nd round and was a bit of a surprise, considering the Vikings have Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph did sign a big contract this year, but the team has an out in 2020 and just has to eat the rest of his signing bonus against their cap. Smith should be slowly introduced into the offense and will be relevant in dynasty drafts, but is unlikely to be involved in redraft leagues this season.

Chicago Bears

What’s changed since last year? The RB group in Chicago has had a shake-up – Jordan Howard was unceremoniously dumped on the Philadelphia Eagles for a sixth-round pick. The Bears then acquired Mike Davis, formerly of the Seahawks muddled backfield. Then, to cap it off, they drafted David Montgomery with their first available pick in the 2019 draft (third round). Montgomery showed some flash and we’ll get to him more in a bit. For now, it looks like the QB, WR and TE groups are the same as last year, while the RBs have received a decent upgrade.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Last year’s rookie WR, Anthony Miller, appeared in 15 games, had catches in 12 of those games, but scored a whopping 7 TDs. He saw the bulk of his work in the middle of the season – he only had 4 catches over his last 5 games. Miller is definitely a guy who can benefit from a larger number of targets and might wind up being fantasy relevant this year. He’s definitely trusted by Mitch Trubisky to get the ball into the end zone.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Anthony Miller is also the sleeper that has some good draft value. His current ADP of 141 (WR53) is far below his consensus ranking of 113 (WR45), so he can be drafted in the late rounds and has some great potential to make it to WR3 status this season. Allen Robinson also has a discrepancy between his ranking and ADP. His ADP is listed at 75 overall (WR31), but he’s ranked 61. If you can grab Allen Robinson in the 8^th round of your draft, that’s a good value for a #1 WR on a team that will likely want to throw the ball more than the 512 times they did last year. Other Bears like Montgomery (ADP 42, RB22), Tarik Cohen (ADP 69, RB31) and Trubisky (ADP 152, QB21) will be fantasy relevant, but are probably right about where they should be on the draft boards.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Bears will have an improved offense, but honestly, they don’t have any studs on this offense. I wouldn’t even recommend the DST as a “stud”, considering that they have a new coordinator this season and that last year’s league-leading 36 turnovers will be hard to replicate.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Taylor Gabriel (ADP 293) is not being drafted anywhere and will be available during the first few weeks of the season. He current is listed as a starting WR on the team’s depth chart, so if he has early success, he may be able to hold off Anthony Miller from overtaking him. I also think that Cordarrelle Patterson could wind up as a heck of a gadget player, but is probably only worth owning in leagues that give points for return yards.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? David Montgomery is the rookie to know on the Bears in 2019. The team traded up with the Patriots to acquire him, and he was widely regarded as the 2^nd best RB talent in the draft. In his first action (week 1’s preseason game vs the Panthers), he had 3 carries for 16 yards and 1 TD, 3 catches for 30 yards in very limited play. Montgomery’s draft stock will continue to rise as the preseason goes on and he’s shown more and more with the first team. Currently, his ADP of 42 matches his consensus rank of 48, (he’s risen 10 spots in each category since last week) but when you consider he’s just the RB22, I think that’s probably good value considering his upside. If he winds up with a similar rookie year as say, Kareem Hunt (whom scouts have compared Montgomery to, and was drafted around the same spot), he could have over 300 touches and finish as a top 5 RB.

Detroit Lions

What’s changed since last year? The Lions offense may not wind up looking a lot different in terms of results, but at least there’s several new names on the jerseys. Golden Tate was traded mid-way through last season and they signed Danny Amendola to take his place. They also got rid of 3^rd down back Theo Riddick, paving the way for Kerryon Johnson to be the guy, and possibly turn into a proper three down back. Finally, the Lions have changed their OC – Darrell Bevell is going to be calling plays this year. Known for his great running teams from Seattle, Bevell should provide a positive jolt to the offense. Of course, Bevell is also the guy who called a pass from the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX .

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Third year WR Kenny Golladay (ADP 46, WR18), while technically not a breakout candidate (he had 70 receptions for 1063 yards last year and 5 TDs) could take another step forward and has a ceiling of being a top 10 guy. The third year with Matt Stafford will help him out, as well as having two other decent receivers to draw attention away from him.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I have two guys in mind for sleepers on the Lions, based on their current draft positions. Danny Amendola (ADP 306, WR104) is available at the end of the draft or as a waiver pickup. He will play in the slot for the Lions and will be trying to fill the Golden Tate role. Tate had over 90 receptions each year he was in Detroit (he was extrapolated to have over 90 in the year he was traded). In a PPR league, Amendola is someone who could easily wind up as a WR3 just based on volume alone. I also like the value of T.J. Hockenson (ADP 143, TE13), especially given the scarcity at TE. He’s a rookie, so we’ll get to him in a moment.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Gone are the days of Megatron in Detroit, and with him the last stud fantasy player that the Lions have had. There are no players I recommend drafting that are definitely going to become studs. Kerryon Johnson comes the closest, however I see his ceiling as maybe a top 15 guy at best.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? As I mentioned earlier, Danny Amendola will likely be available as a waiver pickup early in the season, but he’s likely to be snatched up quickly in PPR leagues, so if you like him, take him at the end of your draft instead. Another waiver possibility will be (the ageless?) C.J. Anderson. Anderson was nothing short of a fantasy stud in the last two games of 2018, filling in for Todd Gurley. 150 yards from scrimmage and a TD (each game) are hard to ignore, and probably got more than a few people a surprise championship to finish out 2018.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? With the 8^th overall pick in the 2019 draft, the Lions took tight end T.J. Hockenson from Iowa (now known as tight end U). Hockenson’s scouting report is glowing and he has a very high ceiling in the NFL. I do worry that the Lions have a history of drafting TEs high and not knowing what to do with them, but there’s a new regime in Detroit (new HC last year, new OC this year), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they’re getting this right. Hockenson is currently being drafted as the 13^th TE, but he could wind up as a top 5 guy easily, given the depth of the position.

Green Bay Packers

What’s changed since last year? The biggest change in Green Bay is the play caller. Out with Mike McCarthy and in with Matt LaFleur. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers was going to win that power struggle against McCarthy and I expect the Packers offense to be better this season. The Pack also parted ways with Randall Cobb, thus clearing the way for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be the #2 WR behind Davante Adams. Aaron Jones (ADP 28, RB15) is also, supposedly, going to be the lead back this season, not really splitting with Jamaal Williams. There is a new coach, but I’m not sold on this increased usage and think that he’s being drafted too high right now.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The Packers have a WR core full of young guys just itching to break out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP 112, WR44) leads the pack and is the most likely to reach the 1000 yard milestone this year. Equanimeous St. Brown (ADP 290, WR97) probably has the best measurables of the group, but is currently banged up and questionable for week 1. Geronimo Allison (ADP 118, WR 46) is in his 4^th season on the Packers and he is no secret in drafts. He had good numbers last year, but was only able to play 5 games. If we extrapolate his numbers, he winds up just shy of 1000 yards with 6 TDs. Filling out this group is Jake Kumerow (ADP 375, WR128) who has made some big plays during in preseason, but didn’t get a lot of playing time last year. Of these four guys, I think that Valdes-Scantling has the best chance to break out and be big deal in fantasy.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I would argue that Valdes-Scantling and Allison are not sleepers since they are being taken in almost all drafts. With them taken out of the picture, I would recommend Equanimeous St. Brown as a sleeper you can nab at the end of the draft. This offense is led by Aaron Rodgers which means they’re going to throw the ball nearly 600 times, and that’s a ton of targets available, allowing for several WRs to thrive.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? This one’s easy – Davante Adams (ADP 8, WR2). Last season, Adams finished as the 3^rd WR in PPR scoring. His worst game was 16.1 points – if he had scored his floor all season long, he would have still be the WR12 on the season. He’s a hell of a wide out and don’t hesitate to grab him, PPR or not. Aaron Rodgers (ADP 48, QB3) gets an honorable mention here, but I don’t endorse taking a QB that early in single QB leagues.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I could see Jake Kumerow being a waiver pickup later in the year, especially if injuries crop up in the WR group. Kumerow is probably the odd man out to start the season, but will stay on the roster and will see more action as other players wind up having to sit at different points of the season. Jimmy Graham (ADP 165, TE19) is a guy with a big name who fell off the fantasy radar the last few seasons. He’s in a good spot for a comeback player of the year type season, but isn’t currently being drafted. As we keep saying, with the positional scarcity at TE, anyone is a viable option, really.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? New TE Jace Sternberger is the only skill player that the Packers drafted who has a chance at being fantasy relevant this season. Sternberger was a 3^rd round pick this year and is not currently listed in Fantasypros’ ADP list. He will need to pass Jimmy Graham on the depth chart, because the Packers are unlikely to run a lot of two tight end formations.