Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

158.3 Passer Rating

The NFL’s all-time leader in passer rating, Aaron Rodgers (with 103.2 for his career) finally posted his very first game with a perfect passer rating on Sunday. Rodgers went 25/31 for 429 yards and 5 TDs, adding another TD on the ground in perhaps the best game of his career. This was good for 43.76 fantasy points, which is 10 more than the next closest player this week. Perhaps Rodgers has finally figured out the new system that has been implemented in Green Bay this year. While they have done fantastic in the win-loss column, they definitely have not looked like the juggernaut offense that we all expected from a team led by Aaron Rodgers, until this week. This game was domination from start to finish, with Rodgers throwing for a TD in every quarter, and also spreading the love. All 5 TDs went to 5 different players. Honorable mention goes to Marquez Valdes-Scanting, who averaged 66.5 yards per reception (2 catches for 133 yards and 1 TD).

576 Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson, after fooling us all with only 6 rushing yards in Week 1, just posted his third game out of the last 6 where we went over 100 rushing yards. This is a historic pace and projects to 1,316 yards over 16 games. If Jackson can keep this up, he will crush the single-season record by Mike Vick, which is 1,039 yards back in 2006. Jackson also continued his fantasy dominance, leading the league with 180.6 total fantasy points in 7 games. When you consider that he has not thrown for a TD in the last two games, this is just amazing. Not bad for a guy who was drafted 106^th overall on average (QB14). He’s the kind of player that allows for league dominance when you can find that kind of value. To further put Jackson’s rushing dominance in perspective, he’s on pace to break Vick’s career total of 6,109 rushing yards in only 111 games, versus Vick’s career 143 games. That’s two full seasons worth of games.

9% of Yahoo Leagues

This week’s leading RB scorer was Chase Edmonds, who was started in only 9% of Yahoo leagues on Sunday. Currently, he’s owned in 48% of leagues, which includes a 14% jump from yesterday. To me, this means that 14% of Yahoo leagues probably do not operate with a waiver system, which is bizarre to me, but I digress. Edmonds was able to dominate the Giants non-existent rushing defense, scoring 3 TDs all from at least 20 yards or more. Edmonds will definitely be the #1 waiver wire pickup this week, and deservedly so. It looks like David Johnson might wind up sitting a week or two, considering he spent almost all of Week 7 on the sideline and the Cardinals were able to win with only 104 passing yards. Edmonds’ 33 points basically doubled up the rest of his entire team combined, which was led by Kyler Murray’s whopping 6.96 points. On a side note, Murray joined Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan in the formerly high-floor group falling back to earth. At least Murray doesn’t have an injury he’s nursing.

1 of the Top 10 Fantasy Performers

Only one of the top 10 fantasy performances turned in this week was by a player owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. To give some context, there are 23 players owned in 100% of leagues and another 15 owned in 99% of leagues. This is usually a stat that I like to track early in the season to find out who’s performing that we weren’t expecting. To see this kind of disparity halfway in the fantasy season means that we’re probably flat out ignoring some players. And I think we are – guys like Matt Stafford (58% owned) who is the QB8 in points per game, Jacoby Brissett (48% owned) who is QB10 in the same category and Kirk Cousins (64% owned), who is averaging 26 points per game the last 3 weeks. Throw in big performances by Latavius Murray and Marvin Jones and you have an average ownership of just 75% across the top 10 fantasy performers in Week 7. This is probably just a fluky week, but I think it’s time to take notice of a few of the QBs that fantasy players seem to insist on not rolling out there.

104 Rush Yards Per Game

The NFL’s rushing yards leader is currently Dalvin Cook, with 725 yards across 7 games. There’s only been one 200+ yard performance this season (Leonard Fournette, 225 yards, Week 4), so we’re lacking the gaudy totals that we have seen in previous years. But, none of that really matters to fantasy players as long as your guys are finding the end zone as well, which is what Cook is doing. Cook has scored 8 TDs on the season, which is tied with Aaron Jones for the league lead. Cook has also managed to have an amazing points floor, never scoring below 11.4 points on the season. Only Ezekiel Elliott can claim such a double-digit elite status. Even super fantasy RB Christian McCaffrey (who still leads Cook in points despite having his bye week already) cannot claim such a floor. Cook and McCaffrey sit alone in tier 1, about 30 points above the tier two guys, who all have 107-111 points. Cook’s ADP of RB10 this season makes him one of the few second round “steals” that are pretty rare any year.

Webster's defines a trend as: "the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change". Here at drinkfive.com, we generally like trends that show 3 weeks of an uptick or regression of player's usage, effectiveness or general point scoring. Check out the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to hear a more in-depth discussion about all of these players. All fantasy point totals are based on Yahoo standard scoring, unless otherwise indicated.

Aaron Rodgers, Wk 5 @ DAL 9.42, Wk 6 vs DET 19.32, Wk 7 vs OAK 43.76.

This year, Aaron Rodgers has not quite looked like himself. For the first 6 weeks, he only had one game above 20 points. His utterly dominant performance in Week 7 seems to indicate that he’s gotten back on track. Over the past three weeks, he’s gone from his lowest total (mainly due to Aaron Jones’ huge game in Dallas) up to arguably his best game of his career last week against Oakland. The Packers offense did look pretty terrible to start the season, and personally I felt that it was the fault of the play calling. It seems like this has improved, and some of Rodgers’ passing numbers are looking pretty good. He has 12.5 yards per completion, his best since 2014 when he was an All-pro. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt is also the highest it’s been since 2014 (the Pack went 12-4 that season). As long as his receiving group doesn’t just completely fall apart (he’ll eventually get Davante Adams back), he should continue to creep up the QB list – he’s currently the QB7 in fantasy football.

David Montgomery, Wk 4 vs MIN 6.70, Wk 5 @ OAK 9.60, Wk 7 vs NO -0.10.

Montgomery was quite a hyped back coming into the season, and he’s still owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, but the Bears run game has disappeared. Montgomery’s carries have gone from a season high of 21 in Wk 4 down to 11 and then just 2 carries last week. The Bears have totally abandoned the run game, and have been heavily criticized by the Chicago media because of it. Aside from a random score in Week 5, he has belonged firmly on your bench, which is not befitting of a player who has this kind of ownership share in leagues. The Bears upcoming games are vs LAC, @PHI and vs DET. The Chargers and Lions are both giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs, but I have no faith in the team to run the ball consistently. Not knowing what to expect from this situation, I suggest just staying away from it – don’t be tempted by good matchups or thinking that outside pressure will change the way they call plays.

Chase Edmonds, Wk 5 @ CIN 14.60, Wk 6 vs ATL 12.70, Wk 7 @ NYG 33.00.

Edmonds has been very impressive the last 3 weeks, and coincidentally (or not), the Cardinals have won all 3 of those games. David Johnson was limited last week with a back injury (he should ask Jalen Ramsey about his guy…), but now he’s missing practice with an ankle injury, so I expect to see more Edmonds in Week 8. Edmonds snap percentage had been varying from about 10-40% with Johnson in, but with him out, he was in on 94% of offensive snaps last week. Sure, the Cardinals signed Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, but they’re just guys to fill out the roster. Edmonds has 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and will be full steam ahead, even against a tough New Orleans team, who will find the Cardinals a much tougher opponent than the one they faced last week.

John Brown, Wk 4 vs NE 6.90, Wk 5 @TEN 7.50, Wk 7 vs MIA 14.30.

The Bills offense has been a bit shaky, but John Brown has remained steady. He’s got 5 catches per game during this stretch, and his yardage has gone up in each game, from 69 to 75 to 83 last week with a TD tacked on. Brown is on the field for 80+% of snaps every game, with two of the last three going above 90%. He led the team in targets the last 2 weeks and is just 1 behind Cole Beasley for the team lead in targets for the season. He has a significant lead on receiving yards on the team this year. Brown should continue to trend in the right direction as he has great matchups coming up. His next 3 games are vs PHI, vs WAS and @CLE. The Eagles and Redskins are both in the top 10 giving up points to WRs, and Cleveland is 19th. Brown is the WR22 in standard scoring this year, keep him in your lineup for the time being.

Larry Fitzgerald, Wk 5 @CIN 5.80, Wk 6 vs ATL 6.90, Wk 7 @NYG 1.20.

Fitz started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games and 2 TDs in his first 3, but has not done a lot since then. His yardage high is just 69 during the last 5 weeks, and that came against a really soft Atlanta defense. Last week against the Giants, who are just as soft, he managed just one catch for 12 yards, though that probably had more to do with the way the game was going and how well the Cardinals were running the ball. Regardless, he often trails the RBs in receiving yardage and it’s possible that his age is finally catching up with him. He has to play in New Orleans this week and then plays the 49ers twice in the following three weeks. These are all bad matchups for him and he should probably be on your bench, or the trading block, if you can drum up any interest.

Some of these are hot takes, I admit it. But I think that the majority will pan out as being starts or sits just beyond the range of the fantasy production you would expect for those categories. You don't win the championship by being the most conservative team in the league, after all. Check out the drinkfive rankings here on the site as well for a more in-depth view at how I look at the relevant players this year. Any stats listed are according to my Half-PPR rankings as of Wednesday, September 22. Good luck and cheers!

RBs

Start Chase Edmonds (ranked RB20) - Edmonds is going up against a Jacksonville defensive unit in poor shape this week. He is in fact the 20th highest scoring RB in fantasy points so far this season (22.6 pts). His usage has been consistent in the receiving game with at least 4 receptions in each match so far, and he has notched at least 75 all-purpose yards in both weeks 1 and 2 as well. The Jags are currently allowing 25.1 points to opposing RBs and so it’s not tough at all for me to predict 81 yards and a TD for Edmonds this week - projecting a total of 16.1 in half-PPR. Nice game, Chase.

MORE STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell (if healthy)

Sit Ty’Son Williams (ranked RB24) - Williams is going up against the porous Lions defense that both Elijah Mitchell and Aaron Jones were able to pick apart over the first two weeks of the season. Sounds great on paper, but I have to be contrarian with this one. Both weeks he struggled in key situations (Week 1’s blown coverage to lead to the strip sack on Lamar Jackson, and Week 2’s goal-line fumble that was luckily recovered by teammate Devin Duvernay). With more time to learn the playbook, I have to imagine that the Ravens will continue to lean on Murray and Freeman and the snap count will shift accordingly. Projecting a disappointing 73 yards total with no TDs. 8.3 fantasy points.

MORE SITS: Devin Singletary, Jamaal Williams, J.D. McKissic

WRs

Start Ja’Marr Chase (ranked WR27) - Chase has flashed big play ability with good performances over weeks 1 and 2 for a total of 30.8 fantasy points which makes him the WR14 overall so far this season. Normally, going up against the Steelers defense would be a major problem for young receivers, but recent injuries to outstanding contributors like T.J. Watt and Joe Haden make it a little more palatable. We saw the Raiders make progress down the field through the air and I expect that the Bengals will also find some success there if key defensive players are not healthy enough to start this weekend. Projecting 67 yards and a TD on limited receptions for a total of 14.2 fantasy points.

MORE STARTS: Rondale Moore, Tim Patrick, Darnell Mooney

Sit DeVonta Smith (ranked WR 30) - Smith led all Eagles receivers in targets over the past two games, if that means anything. It’s certainly building some hype for the rookie receiver. He did have a great performance in week 1, putting up 16.1 fantasy points against Atlanta, but fell back to Earth in week 2 with only 16 yards on 2 receptions. Yikes. I continue to see Smith being chased as a WR3 or FLEX start against Dallas, but he is only the WR46 on the year in total fantasy points and a rookie to boot. And on the Eagles. Don’t do it. Projecting more yardage and receptions than last week but still a low output at 4.7 fantasy points.

MORE SITS: Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones, Brandin Cooks