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(Editor's note: This was completed before the start of Thursday Night Football, but posted shortly after kickoff.)

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! There are now just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. You should have a good picture of where you stand in the playoff chase. Week 11 is the last week of the season with more than 2 teams on a bye (Tampa and Carolina in week 13 are the only byes left after this week). This may be the last week that you’re scrounging for a fill-in in your lineups, and with how productive the rookie crop has been this year there’s likely to be someone listed below that can help you. So far this season, the rookie class accounts for 2 of the top-14 QBs, 5 of the top-20 RBs, and 6 of the top-30 WRs. Which of those players are going to be useful in week 11? Let’s dive in and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Herbert hit a bit of a speed bump last week against the Dolphins, but I’d expect him to get back on track against the Jets this week. Against the lowly Jets, a blowout is always a possibility (the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite this week), but the Jets have given up big fantasy days in blowout losses to Kyler Murray, Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes this year. The Chargers also don’t play in a lot of blowout games. They’ve played just 1 game that was decided by more than 8 points this season, so this might not get too out of hand. The Jets rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and even including last week’s clunker Herbert has at least 2 touchdowns in 6 straight games and 260+ passing yards in 7 of his 8 starts. He’s back to being a safe low-end QB1 this week. 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): Swift has clearly established himself as the Lions’ lead back in recent weeks. He’s led the backfield in snaps for 5 straight weeks since the team’s bye and was on the field for a whopping 73% of the snaps in week 10 despite the Lions playing from ahead for most of the game. Detroit usually deploys Adrian Peterson a lot more in that scenario, but things seem to have changed. Swift has been making the most of his opportunity, finishing as a top-16 RB in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and a top-5 back in two of them. This week he gets to face off with Carolina, who allows the 4^th-most running back points per game and could be without starting QB Teddy Bridgewater this week. If Teddy sits, the Lions are more likely to play from ahead and could give Swift more rushing work. In any case, Swift should be a strong RB2 this week with top-5 upside once again. There is some concern about Swift’s availability for this week as it was announced Thursday that he went into the concussion protocol, so watch the injury updates closely. If he’s unable to play, Kerryon Johnson could be a sneaky upside play this week. He’s more likely to pick up Swift’s receiving work than Adrian Peterson.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): JD McKissic continues to play an outsized portion of the snaps and see an absurd number of targets each week (15(!) in week 10), but Gibson continues to make do with his limited early-down role. He did actually see his second and third 3^rd-down touches of the year last Sunday in the loss to Detroit. The key for Gibson is that the game has to stay competitive. When Washington falls behind and gets into a pass-happy mode, McKissic plays the bulk of the snaps. The Football Team isn’t very good, so that’s happened often. This week, Washington is actually favored by a point & a half. That could bode well for Gibson if the game plays out that way. The Bengals rank just 21^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most rushing yards in the league. Expect Gibson to play a bit more in this game than he has in recent weeks, and with a lot of top backs banged up around the league he should be a safe RB2 in a reasonable matchup.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 11: @LV): Keep an eye on the injury report for CEH. He was held out of practice on Thursday unexpectedly, but if that proves to not be a significant issue, I actually like Edwards-Helaire as an RB2 this week. He’s been playing about twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell since the veteran was acquired, and the Raiders' offense is good enough to keep this game competitive into the second half. Las Vegas has a piss-poor run defense, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 5^th-most running back points per game. This looks like a perfect spot for the rookie to get back on track after 3 straight floor games. He totaled 80 scrimmage yards on 13 touches in the first meeting with the Raiders in a game where the Chiefs just didn’t look like themselves. I expect they’ll look much better this time around, and that Edwards-Helaire will be part of the reason why. It’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to trust him even if he’s healthy, but I expect a strong outing from CEH on Sunday.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): I talked last week in this space about Claypool turning the corner and starting to see a significant target share even in weeks when Diontae Johnson stayed on the field, and that continued in week 10. Claypool finished with 4-56-2 on 10 targets against the Bengals in a game that the Steelers led most of the way. This week’s game script should be similar with Pittsburgh a 10-point favorite. Claypool has 32 targets over the last 3 weeks, so anything short of 8 in this one would be a disappointment even if the Steelers play from ahead. With the big-play ability Claypool has shown, 8+ targets against a defense allowing the 9^th-most WR points per game isn’t something you can leave on the bench.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Jefferson flashed again in a big way on Monday night, possibly helping Kirk Cousins break his Monday night curse along the way. Jefferson posted 8 catches and 135 yards as Kirk Cousins got his first win as a starter on Monday Night Football in his 10^th try. It also continued a strange pattern with Jefferson, who has put up blowup games every third game. In team games 3, 6, and 9, Jefferson has had at least 9 targets and 135 yards receiving in each one, averaging 8-159-1 on 10 targets in those games. In the team’s other 6 games, he hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any of them and has only reached 50 receiving yards twice. I’m not going to read too much into this trend just yet. I think it’s mostly coincidence, but I thought it was interesting to note. This week’s matchup with the Cowboys is a good one. Dallas allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game, and while Minnesota may play from ahead and lean on the run game, I’d have a hard time leaving Jefferson’s upside on the bench in such a favorable matchup. He’s a solid WR3 this week with the upside for a lot more.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Tua has looked sharp in his last two starts, but hasn’t reached QB1 levels as he finished as the QB16 and QB15 in those two games. Denver isn’t a pushover defense, but they also aren’t a very daunting one either. The Broncos rank 12^th in pass defense DVOA but allow the 14^th-most QB points per game. They gave up 3 passing scores in 2 of their last 3 games, and the only reason they held Derek Carr in check last weekend was that the Raiders ran all over them in a blowout win. I don’t expect this game to be as lopsided. Tua probably finishes somewhere in that high-to-mid QB2 range again. He’s worth consideration if you’re missing your starter in a 1-QB league, and he’s a solid QB2 in superflex and 2-QB formats.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Burrow finished last week with his 2^nd-lowest fantasy scoring game of the season in a daunting matchup with the Steelers, and this week he gets another matchup that looks tough on paper. Despite their poor record, Washington ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11^th-fewest QB points per game. When you dig a little deeper, it looks like Washington’s numbers were built in a 3-game stretch where they got to face off with Daniel Jones (twice) and Andy Dalton, and gave up fewer than 15 QB points in each game. In the 3 games around that stretch, they gave up 23+ points to Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson. I think Burrow is closer to that second group than the first one. I’d still tread a little carefully here with Burrow and view him more as a QB2 than a QB1 in what is still not a plus-matchup.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I’m not going to pretend that you might sit James Robinson if you have him, but it’s worth noting that you should temper your expectations for him this week and probably shouldn’t be targeting him in DFS formats. The Steelers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Pittsburgh is also a 10-point favorite, so game script could be working against Robinson. Throughout the season Robinson has had a pretty safe built-in floor with his receiving usage, averaging about 4 catches and 32 receiving yards per game, but that hasn’t carried over to Luton’s starts. In the last two weeks with Minshew out, Robinson has just 2 catches for 3 yards on 7 targets. The Steelers allow a league-low 3 running back catches per game. Robinson is likely going to have to earn his points on the ground this week, and as a 2-score underdog, it could be a more uphill fight than we’re used to. Robinson will be a low-floor RB2 against the Steelers.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Ahmed had an impressive day last Sunday putting up 85 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He seems to have a pretty firm grasp on the early-down role until Myles Gaskin returns from injury, and the matchup this week isn’t much tougher than the one he just faced. Denver allows the 14^th-most RB points per game, and in the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed 2 pairs of teammates to run for over 150 combined yards against them (Devontae Booker/Josh Jacobs last week, and Justin Jackson/Troymaine Pope in week 8). There’s plenty of upside for Ahmed to run the ball well again in this one. He doesn’t get much receiving usage – just 1 target in the last 2 games, so the cap that puts on his ceiling makes him more of a flex play than a solid RB2.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): It’s been a precipitous fall from grace for Jonathan Taylor over the last few weeks, at least among fantasy players. Since the Colts’ bye in week 7, Taylor has played less than 35% of the snaps in each game and seen that share drop each week since that bye. He did find the end zone once in those games, but also lost a fumble and averaged just 34 scrimmage yards per game. With the way that Frank Reich uses his running backs, there’s always a chance that Taylor gets the hot hand and gets some extended usage, but it’s hard to count on that given the way he’s played in recent weeks. The matchup with Green Bay is a good one. The Packers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but this could be more of a Nyheim Hines week as Green Bay gives up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yardage per game. Even in his diminished role, Taylor has averaged 8 carries and 2 catches per game since the bye, so you could talk yourself into using him if you’re desperate for a running back.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been quite right in the last few weeks, with 3 of their 4 lowest team point totals coming in the last 3 games, and the return of Mark Ingram isn’t going to benefit Dobbins. In Ingram’s first game back, Dobbins handled just 6 touches and gained 14 scrimmage yards. He averaged 15 touches per game in the 2 games Ingram missed. The matchup this week is favorable with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most RB points per game, but it’s uncertain that Dobbins will see enough work to take advantage. The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite, so game script should be in their favor, but given the workload split in Baltimore, Dobbins is no more than a desperation flex option in deeper leagues.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Higgins continued his impressive rookie campaign last week with a 7-115-1 line against the Steelers. It was his 6^th-straight game with 60+ yards and his best fantasy day of the season. He’s very likely to reach that 60-yard minimum again this week, but this probably won’t be a ceiling week for him. Washington allows the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, largely on their ability to limit wide receiver touchdowns. They’ve given up just 5 TDs to the position all year and are the only defense in the league that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard day to an opposing wideout. You know what kind of floor you get with Higgins, and he should be fine as a WR3, but if you have another option with more upside this might be a week to consider them. Higgins missed practice with an illness late in the week, so there is even more uncertainty thrown in. Make sure to monitor his status if you plan to play him.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 11: @Min.): Lamb actually managed to post a solid day against Pittsburgh going into the bye with Garrett Gilbert under center. It sounds like Andy Dalton will be back at QB this week, but it’s unclear if that will be an upgrade or not. Lamb has the highest target share of any receiver on the team when Dalton is in (22.3%), but he’s turned 19 targets from Dalton into just 9 catches for 85 yards. The Vikings are a plus matchup for receivers, allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, but with the inconsistency of this offense since Dak’s season ended I’d view Lamb as a volatile WR3 option.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): Pittman was one of the stars of the Colts’ victory last Thursday, posting his first career 100-yard game. He looks to be fully recovered from his compartment leg syndrome and may be pulling ahead of TY Hilton for the team’s WR1 role. I’d still expect the Packers’ top corner Jaire Alexander to be matched up on Hilton, which should mean Pittman is in line for another decent day. The Packers have the offensive firepower to keep the Colts throwing, and while Green Bay does a decent job of limiting WR production (they allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game), they rank just a middling 16^th in pass-defense DVOA and have been burned by Keelan Cole and Richie James in recent weeks. Those guys may be closer stylistically to Hilton, but I’d still view Pittman as an upside WR3 in this matchup.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Jeudy came back down to earth a little bit last week after his breakout week 9 performance, but he still posted his 3^rd straight game with double-digit PPR points and more than 65 receiving yards. He’ll face a tough individual matchup this week against Byron Jones, but he’s been peppered with targets in recent weeks (32 total in the last 3 games). I’d be a little nervous for him if Lock is out and Brett Rypien starts. In Rypien’s one previous start, Jeudy was targeted just 4 times, but it’s a small enough sample that I wouldn’t overreact to it. The week before that game when Rypien came on in relief of Jeff Driskel, he targeted Jeudy 3 times in just 9 attempts. Jeudy is a reasonable WR3 or flex option this week, but don’t expect a ceiling game against Jones.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Reagor was on the field for a season-high 88% of the offensive snaps last week and targeted a season-high 7 times in that game despite Alshon Jeffery’s return. He’s now seen 13 targets in 2 games since returning and is basically neck & neck with Travis Fulgham for WR1 status on the team. This week he faces off with a Cleveland defense that allows the 6^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. He does draw the toughest individual matchup with Denzel Ward, but against this defense, he’s still got room to post a nice day if he sees another 7+ targets. Carson Wentz has been up & down this year, so there is some volatility here, but if you believe Reagor’s WR1 role is for real, he’s an upside WR4 this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Luton came back down to earth a bit in his second NFL start against Green Bay. The Jaguars hung around in the game, but the rookie finished as the QB22 with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He gets an even tougher matchup this week. Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-fewest QB points per game. Luton should get Laviska Shenault back this week, but that likely won’t be enough help to push him into being a useful option against the Steelers. He’s probably not worth considering even as a QB2.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Week after week I’ve been listing Kelley as a borderline option as part of the backfield committee in LA, and week after week he fails to produce a quality stat line. His ceiling games have been around 10 PPR points, and that just isn’t the kind of upside you’re hoping for from him. He hasn’t found the end zone since week 1, and at the moment this backfield looks like the Kalen Ballage show. Kelley played just 27% of the offensive snaps last week while Ballage played the other 73%. The matchup this week is good. The Jets are the worst team in the league and allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but we’ve been burned by Kelley time and again. I wouldn’t want to use him even in this plus matchup unless I was pretty desperate. This probably means he’s going to have his best game of the season.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Carlos Hyde will be active tonight, and will likely slot in as the lead back for Seattle on early downs with Chris Carson sidelined again and Alex Collins back on the practice squad. Travis Homer will be out tonight as well, so Dallas will serve as the 3^rd-down back against a Cardinals team that doesn’t give up a lot of receptions to the opposing backfields (just 4.4 per game). Only Raheem Mostert, Ezekiel Elliott, and Mike Davis have caught more than 3 passes in a game from the running back position against Arizona. With Hyde back, and Bo Scarbrough active as the 3^rd-string running back, it’s hard to imagine Dallas getting any opportunities at the goal line. Without a touchdown or a significant number of catches, there isn’t much upside for Dallas.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 11: @TB): Akers has started to become a bigger part of the backfield committee for the Rams, but the role he’s carved out doesn’t have a lot of fantasy upside. For starters, he has struggled in pass protection and as a result, hasn’t been getting many opportunities in passing situations. He has just 1 target in the last 2 games. He also isn’t getting the ball at the goal line. The Rams ran for 3 short scores last week, and it was Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson doing the scoring. The increased playing time is a good sign for Akers, but until he cleans up the pass blocking or starts run the ball effectively enough to make it hard for Sean McVay to keep him off the field, he’s not going to be seeing the high-value touches. Against a Tampa defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA, you don’t want to bet on Akers producing in that limited role.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Jake Luton, the Jacksonville passing game as a whole is going to be shaky this week. The Steelers have been vulnerable to wide receivers, allowing the 11^th-most points per game to the position, but the guys who have made them pay have been bigger perimeter wide receivers. The 4 highest point totals they’ve allowed to receivers this year were put up by Darius Slayton, AJ Brown, Travis Fulgham, and Tee Higgins. Shenault is not that kind of receiver. If he finds his way to 60 yards and a score in this one it would be a wildly successful game for him.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Ruggs is a guy that I always view as a boom-or-bust kind of player, but he has consistently busted since his breakout performance against the Chiefs back in week 5. He totaled 118 yards and a touchdown in that game but has a total of just 7 catches for 74 yards on 14 targets in the 4 games since. Are the Chiefs the opponent to get him booming again? I probably wouldn’t bet on it. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Ruggs’ 2 catches of 40+ yards in the first meeting make up half of the 40+ yard completions Kansas City has allowed all year. Keep him sidelined. His teammate Bryan Edwards took a step forward last week, playing 20 snaps in his first extended action since week 3. I wouldn’t consider him this week, but if his snap share keeps trending in the right direction, he should be a better weekly fantasy play than Ruggs before long.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Duvernay’s time may be coming, but the recent resurgence of Willie Snead in the slot for the Ravens hurts Duvernay’s upside. He’d be best suited to stretching the seam from the slot, and Snead seems to have that role pretty well locked down right now. Duvernay has moved ahead of Miles Boykin on the depth chart and played at least 40% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks (a season-high 55% last weekend), but until that starts turning into more consistent targets he’s going to be a low-floor dart throw for fantasy. He’s been targeted just 6 times in those last 3 games. The Titans are burnable. They allow the 4^th-most WR points per game and Duvernay has splash play abilities, so if you want to take a swing in a DFS tournament be my guest. He only costs the minimum on DraftKings, but this passing game is too volatile for me to roll the dice on Duvernay right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): There is some potential upside for Cephus this week with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola both missing practice on Thursday, but it’s been clear in the past couple of weeks that the Marvins – Hall & Jones – are the ones who will benefit most from their absence. The Lions’ QB Matt Stafford will be playing through a torn ligament in his throwing hand, which throws a little additional uncertainty into how effective the Detroit passing game will be, and there’s always a chance that they call up Mohamed Sanu from the practice squad and that he siphons snaps from Cephus. Add in the fact that Carolina allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, and a possible expanded role for the rookie just isn’t all that exciting in this one. If you’re scrounging this far down the WR ranks, I’d take a swing on a higher ceiling than Cephus has this week.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Peoples-Jones did play a handful more snaps last week than he did in week 10, even hauling in a couple of catches for 16 yards, but he’s still playing as the WR4 in this offense…an offense that ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive plays a week ago now that Nick Chubb is back. There isn’t a reason to start DPJ in any formats this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): After posting a goose egg last week, you probably don’t need me to tell you to sit Bryant. It’s ugly enough at tight end this week that a lot of folks playing on ESPN are using Taysom Hill as a tight end streamer, so you may be looking pretty far down the ranks for help. The Eagles do allow the 6^th-most tight end points per game, but as I mentioned under Peoples-Jones, with Nick Chubb back last week the Browns ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive snaps in a close game. With Austin Hooper back, Bryant’s snap share is down to just over 50%, so he’ll likely be limited to less than 20 routes run. You’re counting on a TD if you play him, and if you don’t get one another goose egg is entirely possible.

Rookies on Byes: RB Zack Moss, BUF, RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (also out with broken collarbone), WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, WR Darnell Mooney, CHI, WR Gabriel Davis, BUF, WR Austin Mack, NYG, TE Cole Kmet, CHI

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (WK. 11: @LAC): It’s undoubtedly a trap to suggest playing any Adam Gase running back, but I actually like Perine’s chances at a decent day in this one. Frank Gore continues to see more rushing work than the rookie, but the Jets have talked breathlessly about wanting to get Perine more involved. This would be a good week to do it. The Chargers have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game, but more importantly, have allowed more than 6 catches per game to the position, and Perine has 2 catches in each of the last 4 games while Gore has 8 catches all season. Perine is mostly a desperation flex play in season-long leagues, but he costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings and I’ve got a feeling he’s going to outplay that cost.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): McFarland missed last week’s game with an illness, but should be good to go for week 11. Prior to his absence, he had played more snaps than Benny Snell in week 10 and seemed to be starting to carve out a bigger role for himself. The key to this matchup for McFarland will be garbage time, and how much of it there will be. I kind of suggested playing this game last week with AJ Dillon against these same Jaguars, and that didn’t work out so well, but it’s worth noting that McFarland could see some extended run if the Steelers get far enough out in front. He has more big-play speed than Snell, so he has a better chance of cashing that garbage time work into fantasy points. I wouldn’t look at him as anything more than a cheap DFS tournament play though.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): After seeing 10 targets in back-to-back games now that he plays primarily in the slot, I might be doing Hamler a disservice to call him a ‘deep-league sleeper’. If Drew Lock misses this game as expected, Hamler could lose a little bit of that mojo, but since he’s in the slot he’ll mostly avoid top corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Instead, he’ll face off with Nik Needham, which should result in some extra looks going Hamler’s way. The Dolphins allow the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Hamler should be in a pretty good spot to take advantage of a reasonable matchup. His price tag could be a steal at $3,600 on DraftKings, and he should be a decent flex option for deeper leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 11: @LAC): Since returning from injury Mims has played a significant role in the Jets’ offense. He’s been on the field for 96% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks and seen 6 targets per game since his return. He’s played one game with Joe Flacco at QB, and in that game, he turned 8 targets into 4 catches and 62 yards. This week he faces a Chargers’ defense that does a pretty good job limiting wideouts, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position, but it’ll be Breshad Perriman who gets the toughest matchup, squaring off with Casey Heyward. Slot man Jamison Crowder will be the Jet with the most favorable matchup, but Flacco showed a willingness to take deep shots in his last start, and I’d expect Mims to be the guy who benefits if that happens again this week. He’s shown a built-in floor with at least 40 yards in each game he’s played, but he’s got an upside this week well beyond his $3,300 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Freddy Swain, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Keep a close eye on the status of Tyler Lockett for Thursday night before considering Swain. If Lockett is out the rookie has some sneaky upside for DFS tournaments, especially the Thursday showdown slate where he costs just $1,200 on DraftKings. Swain has been consistently playing around 30-35% of the offensive snaps with everybody healthy. It hasn’t really translated to targets, but he did manage to post 3-37 on 4 targets last Sunday. If Lockett misses the game or is limited, both Swain and David Moore would be in line for bigger roles against a defense that allows the 8^th-most points per game to opposing WRs. There would be upside for both, but Swain’s lower price tag will make him an intriguing option.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. It’s been a long, strange trip this season, but hopefully you’ve made it to this point with a postseason berth secured, or at least a chance to earn one this week. We had our first Wednesday Afternoon Football in recent memory a couple days ago, and week 13 brings us two Monday games, a Tuesday night game, and two of the latest byes we’ve seen in years (Tampa & Carolina). If the Vegas betting lines are on point, it’s also going to have a LOT of uneven scores. 7 of the week’s 15 games have point spreads of more than 6 points. A week with a lot of lopsided games can be tricky to navigate when setting fantasy lineups, but there should be some exploitable matchups as a result. Which rookies does that apply to? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): You already know what to do with Robinson. You can’t sit him. He’s given rock solid production week in and week out, and there is nothing about the matchup this week to scare you off of that. In Mike Glennon’s first start Robinson played all but one snap, and he was a popular passing game option as well with 6 targets and 5 catches. Minnesota ranks a middling 16^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and they’ve given up over 100 rushing yards in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, Robinson has 80% of the Jaguars team rushing yards. He should be safe for 70+ rushing yards and a handful of catches once again, and he’s always a threat to put the ball in the end zone.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Taylor’s trip to the COVID/reserve list came at a pretty inopportune time as he just seemed to be getting back on track. I don’t think the week off is going to derail his momentum. He seems to have separated himself from Jordan Wilkins again for the early down work, and this week’s matchup is a great one for him. The Texans allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, but more importantly they allow the most running back rushing yards in the league. Nyheim Hines will of course mix in a fair amount as usual, but I’m going to make a bold claim that Taylor runs for over 100 yards and finds the end zone in this one. I think he’ll run with a little extra juice after the week off.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): This week’s attack could feature a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for Minnesota as they’re favored to win by 10 points, but you know the kind of upside that Jefferson brings to the table. Jacksonville boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. They rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. Jefferson has been more consistent in recent weeks after having some boom-or-bust performances in the early part of the season. He’s averaged 5 catches for 89 yards on 8 targets over the past 4 games, and found the end zone 3 times in that span. The potential limited volume in an easy win this week makes him more of a WR2 than a WR1 against the Jags.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Claypool gets a difficult matchup on paper, but his usage has been very reliable over the past few weeks and Washington has been vulnerable to big plays, an area where Claypool has had success this year. The Football Team has given up more 40+ yard completions this year (9) than every team in the league except the Chargers (10). Pittsburgh hasn’t made a living on the deep ball this year, with only 8 completions of 30+ yards on the season, but 5 of those 8 went to Claypool. Washington has allowed the 2^nd fewest WR points per game and ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but Claypool has had 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and his splash play prowess gives him additional upside in this one. The absence of James Conner should result in even more passing volume for this offense despite a likely positive game script. Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 51 passes last week with Conner sidelined. Claypool’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling this week even though it looks like a tough spot. Fire him up as a WR2 this Monday.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): This week isn’t a great one to bet on a ceiling game out of Herbert. The Patriots have struggled against the pass on paper, ranking 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also slow the game down when they can and limit play volume on the other side. New England ranks 29^th in pace in the first half of games (seconds per offensive play run), and 31^st in pace when they have a lead. They’ve allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 6 of their 11 games, and 2 or fewer total TDs to the opposing QB in 8 of 11. They also haven’t allowed any QB they’ve faced to throw 35 or more pass attempts. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 6 of his 10 starts. The rookie should be a solid high-end QB2 and passable low-end QB1 this week, but it’s not crazy to consider sitting him this week in 1-QB leagues if you have a replacement you really like this weekend. Lower volume could cap his upside.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Reports out of Miami on Saturday make it sound like Tua is trending toward starting this week, and he should be a reasonable QB2 if that proves to be the case on Sunday. The last time we saw Tua in action, he was lifted for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to a shaky performance against the Broncos when he was sacked 6 times. The Bengals aren’t anywhere near as daunting of a defense. They rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have just 13 sacks total in 11 games this season. Cincy has limited fantasy production out of Alex Smith and the combo of Daniel Jones & Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, but had allowed 2+ total TDs to 8 QBs in a row before those two games. Tua also has the benefit of a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back. I expect a solid performance in a plus matchup.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Dobbins will return from the COVID list this week, and it comes at just the right time. Dallas is burnable opponent, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 6^th-most RB points per game. We saw on Wednesday how uninspiring a healthy dose of Gus Edwards can be (10 yards and a TD on 9 carries vs. Pittsburgh). The Ravens get both Dobbins and Mark Ingram back this week, but in the last two games both were healthy for, Dobbins saw 20 carries and 4 targets to Ingram’s 7 and 2. The game script should be very positive in this game assuming Lamar Jackson is able to play. Baltimore was favored by a TD with Lamar’s status still uncertain. I’d look for 15 or so touches from Dobbins this week, and a strong likelihood he finishes the week as an RB2.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production has been wildly uneven since the team signed Le’Veon Bell. He’s put up fantasy point totals of 12.8, 4.6, 10.9, 20.2, and 4.4 in the 5 games with Bell active. He did, however, play his highest snap share yet with Bell on the roster in week 12, and he’s found the end zone 4 times in those last 5 games. Denver is a defense that is easier to attack on the ground than through the air, especially since AJ Bouye returned from IR in week 7. The Broncos have allowed 18.5 or more QB points in 8 games this year. Bouye was inactive for 5 of them and left one of the other 3 with injury. Denver ranks just 19^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game. There is risk with CEH every week, but this is a week that I would bet on him returning RB2 value. Make sure he suits up before pulling the trigger. He was questionable with an illness as of Saturday.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Gibson has been on fire lately, finishing as a top-8 fantasy back in 4 of his last 5 games (and the RB17 in the other). He found the end zone 8 times in those 5 games, with at least 1 score in each, but I’m here to dump a little cold water on the rookie this week. Gibson’s hot streak has coincided with an easier stretch of the schedule where Washington has played from ahead regularly. 3 of their 4 wins on the season came during the stretch, and Gibson still hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a team loss. His passing game usage has kept him fantasy viable in most of his down weeks, but he still gives way to JD McKissic on a lot of 3^rd downs when they’re trailing. In the team’s 7 losses, Gibson averages playing just 46% of the snaps gaining just 66 scrimmage yards, and Washington is an 8-point underdog against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are one of the toughest RB matchups in the league. They allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. They also should limit Gibson’s receiving output. No team in the league allows fewer RB catches and receiving yards than the Steelers do. I know it would be hard to sit Gibson this week given the output you’ve gotten from him recently, but if he doesn’t find the end zone for the 6^th straight game, you may be cursing his name Monday.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Keep an eye on the health updates with Swift. Editor's Note: Swift is inactive for Week 13. Obviously it’ll be tough to sit him if he plays, but there were reports that his snaps would be limited if he’s able to go and he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday. The matchup isn’t a great one with the Bears ranking 5^th in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 8^th-most RB rushing yards per game. Swift has topped 95 scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 5 games and was heavily involved in the passing game with at least 4 targets each week in that span. I wouldn’t expect him to be nearly as involved this week if he is able to play. I’d view him more as a desperation flex, and would probably lean against playing him if he’s active.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Pittman has come into his own as the Colts’ WR1 in recent weeks, averaging nearly 7 targets per game in his last 4, and this week faces a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. He had a bit of a down game last week with just 2 catches for 28 yards against the Titans, but he was targeted 9 times in that game. The volume should be there again this week. Phillip Rivers has thrown the ball 36 or more times in 5 of his last 6 games, and Pittman gets the best opportunity to take advantage of this defense against Phillip Gaines thanks to Bradley Roby’s PED suspension. Gaines has allowed a team-worst 18.3 yards per completion on throws into his coverage, and allowed a 60% completion rate. Roby was injured earlier this year 3 snaps into a game against Green Bay in week 7 and missed the following game as well. The opposing WR1s in those two games were Davante Adams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). I’m not saying Pittman is going to have that kind of day, but I’d be shocked if he has another 2-28 kind of performance. He’s a great value in DFS tournaments at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and a WR3 with big upside this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Jeudy had a predictably terrible fantasy day last week with zero catches with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton throwing the ball. Hinton completed just one pass all day. Drew Lock should be back under center in this one, and that should be a big help to all of the receiving weapons. Keep an eye on the injury report as Jeudy is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s got a healthy amount of upside. The entire passing game struggled in the first meeting with Kansas City, including Jeudy who posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. In the 4 games since that meeting (not including last week), Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 76 receiving yards per week. He gets a tough individual matchup this week with Bashaud Breeland, but the Broncos should be throwing a lot this week and that volume will keep Jeudy in play as an upside WR3 if he’s able to take the field.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Aiyuk should return from his stint on the COVID/reserve list this week, and he was performing well before being placed on it. The rookie had topped 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games he played in, but Deebo Samuel wasn’t active for any of them. His return should make the target breakdown tougher to predict with both active. Samuel commanded 13 targets in an upset win last weekend while Aiyuk was out, and having the duo out there together this week will probably limit the ceiling for each. The Bills have a formidable secondary with Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White each allowing right around 8 yards per target. Neither corner is allowing even 3 yards after catch per completion into their coverage. Aiyuk averages 5 yards after catch per reception. Samuel averages 13. Kyle Shanahan is creative enough that he’ll be able to scheme the ball to these guys in positions to make plays, but only Seattle has managed to get two receivers to 10 fantasy points against Buffalo in the Bills’ last 8 games. If only one 49er gets to 10, there is a chance it’s Aiyuk who has the solid game, but my money would be on Samuel after what we saw from him last week. Aiyuk is on the flex radar Sunday.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Lamb should be a floor flex play once again this week in another tough matchup. He’ll draw coverage from Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 6.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys are probably going to play from behind and will have to throw, and Lamb has 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games. He’s got the raw talent to have a big game unexpectedly, but if you’re playing him you just hope he gets in the end zone or clears 10 PPR points.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Higgins did manage to post a 5-44-1 line on 5 targets in Brandon Allen’s first start last weekend, but that’s pretty much what a successful week is going to look like for him with Burrow out. Tyler Boyd did lead the Bengals in targets last week and he gets the best individual matchup of the Cincy receivers this week, facing Nik Needham in the slot. Higgins will match up mostly with Xavien Howard, who has been tough but given up some big plays. He’s allowed just a 46% completion rate into his coverage, but has given up 15 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns on the year. Higgins is always a threat to find the end zone, and that keeps him in the flex discussion, but you’ll probably need him to score to provide a useful fantasy day.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Mooney and Mitch Trubisky seemed to have a connection early in the year even with Mooney playing limited snaps, and Trubisky continued to look his way in his return to the starting QB role. In the first two weeks of the season, Mooney turned 6 Trubisky targets into 6 catches for 74 yards and a TD. The efficiency wasn’t nearly as high last week against Green Bay, but Trubisky threw Mooney’s way 9 times in the loss. It resulted in 3 catches for 34 yards. The game script should be a bit more positive this week for Chicago, so passing volume could be down, but against Detroit’s rag-tag secondary the efficiency should be better. The Lions rank just 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Mooney has been a dicey flex option most weeks, only reaching 60 receiving yards in 1 game this year, so he’s more of a desperation option this week, but I do like his chances of having one of his better games of the year.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): There was a lot of talk of Hurts getting to play a bit more last week with the way Carson Wentz has been struggling, but that didn’t really come to fruition on Monday night with Hurts playing just 2 snaps. He did make a crisp throw to Alshon Jeffery on one of those snaps, but it looks like he’ll have to supplant Wentz as the starter to have any fantasy value. For his part, Wentz didn’t really do anything to inspire confidence in his ability to get the job done against the Seahawks, but Philly has so much invested in their QB that it would take an awful lot for them to bench him. Keep an eye on the situation, but for now Hurts is no more than a stash for 2-QB formats with more value in dynasty leagues than redraft.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers defense allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and has been getting healthier, and Moss is still splitting snaps with Devin Singletary. He’s been playing slightly more than his backfield counterpart, but he’s only reached 60% of the offensive snaps once all year and Cam Akers is the only running back to score 11+ fantasy points against the 49ers while playing less than 66% of the snaps. In fact, Frank Gore is the only non-Ram to run for more than 60 yards against San Francisco all year, and that was back in week 2. If Moss falls into the end zone in this one he’d return at least flex value, but I’d probably avoid making that bet. Josh Allen is as likely (actually more likely) to get the goal line rushing opportunities as Moss.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The return of Austin Ekeler puts a pretty solid cap on Josh Kelley’s opportunity going forward. It was nice to see Kelley get into the end zone to vulture a TD from Ekeler last weekend, but it’s entirely possible that he goes to the bench for Kalen Ballage when Ballage gets healthy, which could happen as soon as this week. Kelley has played less than 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and Ekeler and Ballage haven’t both been active at the same time in any of them. There is more chance of Kelley’s playing time going down than up if this backfield is healthy.

RB Anthony McFarland Jr., PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): With James Conner out after testing positive for Covid-19, this seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Steelers to get McFarland more involved and see what the rookie can do. He did play his highest snap count of the year on Wednesday against the Ravens, but that was still just 19% of the offensive snaps and he ended the day with just 4 touches and 26 scrimmage yards. The Washington defense he faces this week allows fewer RB points per game than Baltimore. You can’t roll him out there in any leagues this week even though Conner is expected to be out again.

RB DeeJay Dalls, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): With Chris Carson back in action Dallas didn’t play a single offensive snap last week. I don’t foresee a big playing time spike this week that would result in him being a playable fantasy option. The Giants allow the 14^th-most RB points per game, but Dallas isn’t the one who will be scoring those points for Seattle.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): In case you missed the news Saturday, Ahmed is listed as doubtful and isn’t expected to play in this game. Even if he were surprisingly able to suit up, Myles Gaskin has been activated off injured reserve and will function as the lead back. Ahmed would only see change-of-pace work or garbage time work if he ends up active on Sunday.

WRs Laviska Shenault & Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): Collin Johnson announced himself with some authority last weekend, posting 4-96-1 on a team-high 8 targets. We’ve seen throughout his career that Glennon likes big targets on the outside, and the 6’6” Johnson fits the bill. Unfortunately for him, the return of DJ Chark and Chris Conley this week will force him back to a backup role. The 80% snap share he played in week 12 was his highest of the season by nearly 50%. I would expect DJ Chark to be the guy Glennon looks to most often in week 13. Laviska Shenault has some upside in a plus matchup (the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game), but Viska hasn’t been anything more than a floor flex play most of this season. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just 3 times all year and found the end zone just once. He’s not the kind of player you want to bet on having a big game in a week where you may need it most. I’d prefer both DJ Chark and Keelan Cole to Shenault this week.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): As I mentioned with Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to take anything away from last week’s game with Kendall Hinton at QB. Burn the tape and throw it away and pretend it never happened when looking at Denver pass catchers. Prior to last week Hamler had been putting up reasonable performances, but still comfortably behind Jeudy’s production. In the 3 games before facing the Saints, KJ totaled 14 catches for 160 yards and 1 rush for 15. Much like the rest of the Denver offense, Hamler wasn’t great in the first meeting with Kansas City as he posted just 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 targets and a rush for 10. I like his chances to exceed those numbers this time around, but he gets a tough individual matchup. Kansas City’s slot corner L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 4.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and Hamler is unlikely to see as many targets as Jeudy or fellow teammate Tim Patrick. I’d leave Hamler benched this week unless Jeudy winds up inactive.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): Things are trending in the wrong direction for Reagor to be able to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. He was shaping up to have WR1 usage for this team for a few weeks there, playing 73, 88, and 93% of the offensive snaps in the three games prior to week 12, but last week he lost snap share to Alshon Jeffery. Reagor played just 61% of the snaps in week 12. The Eagles are also likely to get Zach Ertz back from IR this week, and that could siphon targets away from the rest of the passing game. Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game before going down with injury, and while he wasn’t particularly efficient with those targets, Carson Wentz still looks to him as a safety blanket. Reagor has been averaging about 6 targets per game and 31.5 receiving yards per game over the last 4 contests, and any volume coming away from that will make him pretty unusable for fantasy purposes. The opponent this week, Green Bay, allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, so it isn’t a plus matchup for Reagor. There’s a chance that getting Ertz back as an underneath weapon helps open up the deep passing game more and helps Reagor, but I’d rather see that before I trust it’s going to happen. The Eagles’ passing game as a whole has been a mess this year.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): I’ve tried to predict potential breakout games for Duvernay a couple times this year without much luck, so I’m not going to do that this week. Dallas is a great matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position. They’ve also been burned for big plays, allowing 8 catches of 40+ yards on the season (only Washington and the Chargers have allowed more), but Duvernay hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this year. The addition of Dez Bryant has resulted in more target competition for Duvernay, making his breakout game even more unlikely. Bryant has been targeted 7 times in the last two weeks. Duvernay has been active for all 11 games and has just 23 targets for the season.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 13: @NYJ): The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most WR points per game, and you still can’t trust either of these rookie wide receivers to help your fantasy squad this week. Ruggs has reached double-digit fantasy points just once all year, and hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any game. Is there a chance he hits a big play and has a good game? Sure, but if he doesn’t, I hope you enjoy your 2-25 on 4 targets line. Bryan Edwards played just 30% of the snaps last week in a blowout loss where the Raiders were throwing all game. He’s well behind Nelson Agholor and Ruggs for playing time right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Kenny Golladay is on track to miss yet another game this week, but Danny Amendola seems to be on track to return. Golladay missed the first meeting with the Bears, a game where Cephus saw 10 targets come his way, but his role has pretty much evaporated since then. Quintez has been no more than the team’s part-time WR3 with Kenny out, and has seen exactly 2 targets in each of the last 4 games. He’ll need more volume than that to be useful, and you can’t count on him getting it this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 13: @Ten.): This is a decent matchup for a tight end with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most TE points per game, but Bryant has been a non-factor as a receiver since Austin Hooper returned to the lineup. Bryant has just 1 catch on two targets over the last 3 games combined despite playing more than 55% of the offensive snaps in each game. He’s more of a run blocker than a receiving threat right now, and isn’t likely to help you this week in any formats.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Kmet has seen his snap share increase in 4 straight games – he even played 30 more offensive snaps than Jimmy Graham last week – but Graham is still the tight end seeing the targets and receiving yards. Kmet has just 3 catches for 17 yards on 7 targets over the last 4 games. Graham has posted 11-100-1 on 19 targets in that same span. The changing of the guard hasn’t happened yet, and Detroit allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Akers hasn’t reached the point where he’s a good weekly fantasy option just yet, but he’s at least part of the rotation again. In weeks 5, 6 and 7, Akers played a total of 17 offensive snaps. Since then he’s averaged 17 per game, and his play has improved as Darrell Henderson’s has faded. Henderson has just 24 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last 2 weeks while Akers has 101 yards on 14 carries. He’s their only back that has given them any kind of spark in the running game in recent weeks, and it’s bound to lead to more opportunities for the rookie. It’s not great that 31% of his scrimmage yards from the past 4 weeks came from one play, but he’s trending in the right direction. It would take some serious balls to play him in a less than ideal matchup this week (Arizona allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and this is still a 3-man committee backfield), but he shouldn’t be sitting out there on the waiver wire in most leagues. He remains available in 65% of ESPN leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Mims is currently one of the most overlooked weekly WR options in fantasy football. I get that the Jets are a terrible team, but there has been fantasy production to take advantage of here. Mims is available in 91% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and all he’s done since getting activated in week 7 is average 6.6 targets and 57 yards per game. In the past 3 games those numbers are at 7.7 and 66. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s coming. This week he gets a favorable matchup against struggling rookie corner Damon Arnette. Arnette has allowed a team-worst 75% completion percentage on throws into his coverage, and while he hasn’t been tested deep very much, Mims has the wheels to burn him if the Jets test it out. Mims ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine while Arnette ran 4.56. The Jets as usual should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch, and I like Mims’ chances of posting his best fantasy game of the season.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers are not an easy matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position, but we saw again last week that Davis typically produces when John Brown is out of the lineup. Davis has caught for 50+ yards 4 times this season, and 3 of them came in the 4 games where Brown played less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps (3 games Brown missed and one that he left early with injury). Davis has also played at least 95% of the offensive snaps in all 3 games Brown missed. Jason Verrett isn’t an easy matchup on the outside, but #1 receiver Stefon Diggs will be dealing with Richard Sherman on the other side. Davis isn’t much more than an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments or a deep league flex option, but 50+ yards is probably a reasonable expectation.

WR Isaiah Coulter, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Editor's Note: Coulter is inactive for this week's matchup. Coulter has been gifted a huge opportunity thanks to the positive PED test and suspension of Will Fuller this week. Coulter is expected to step into Fuller’s spot in the lineup at least until Randall Cobb returns from IR (it’s unclear how the lineup will look when Cobb returns since both Cobb and Keke Coutee are best suited to the slot), and any full time role with Deshaun Watson as your QB warrants a look from fantasy players. Coulter is a bit raw after playing at the FCS level for Rhode Island, but he has the tools and traits to develop into a decent NFL receiver. He’s got speed, running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. That isn’t Will Fuller fast, but it’s fast enough. He also steps into an offense with a lot of passing volume, and one where most of the receiving volume goes to the wide receivers. The Texans are 5^th in the league in passing yards with Watson averaging 291 yards per game, and 70% of their receiving yards have gone to the receivers. With that situation, Coulter is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he shouldn’t be plugged in anywhere this week. His fantasy ceiling will only come if he’s able to replace Fuller’s deep threat role, and the Colts have allowed just 4 completions of 40+ yards all year. This isn’t a week to hope for a big play from Isaiah. He should be monitored though.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Trautman isn’t a name that most people know, but he’s actually led the Saints in tight end snaps in each of the past 3 games, likely because he’s a better run blocker than Jared Cook & Josh Hill and the team has been run-heavy with Taysom Hill at QB. There haven’t been a ton of targets for the rookie (he’s had one catch on one target in each of Hill’s two starts, including 1-19 against these Falcons), but matchups don’t get better for tight ends than this one. Atlanta allows a league-high thirteen TE points per game. I wouldn’t play him in season-long leagues, but he’s a decent dart throw for DFS tournaments. He’ll cost the minimum for normal DraftKings tournaments, and just $400 on the Showdown slate for the Saints-Falcons game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. There are a lot of rookies with fluid injury situations this week, and COVID could strike a player at any time, so make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.

First of all, how is it not the playoffs yet? This extended season suddenly feels very weird. That being said, let's have a look at players who are trending up or down over the last 3 weeks (or longer). We like to look at trends to try and identify if a player is on the right or wrong track, OR if they’re close to turning things around.

Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR) - Week 10 @ SF, 11.82; Week 12 @ GB, 22.98; Week 13 vs JAC, 24.00: Stafford had a rough stretch this year in weeks 9 and 10 where he threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs each game and put up his two lowest fantasy point totals of the season. The Rams then had a bye week and it seems like Stafford worked a few things out, because he’s thrown 3 touchdowns in each of the two games he’s had since the bye. While it does feel like he’s turned a corner, I would be very cautious with starting him against the Cardinals, especially if you have to win this week to make the playoffs. If you’re already in, then hold on to Stafford, because his schedule for the playoffs is very nice, playing Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore, all in the top half of fantasy points against to opposing QBs.

Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) - Week 10 vs PHI, 5.9; Week 12 vs LAC, 18.6, Week 13 @ KC, 26.8: Williams has been one of the most talked about rookie RBs this season due to his seemingly untapped potential. Williams has also been one of the best RBs after contact this season, and finally the Broncos have let him loose. He has had his best two fantasy weeks since the Broncos bye in Week 11. With  Melvin Gordon is out, he’s also seeing a huge amount of touches - 29 last week! He had 178 yards from scrimmage, 6 receptions and scored a TD against the Chiefs, good for 26.8 points and the RB1 spot in Week 13. Coming up, the Broncos will probably get Gordon back this week, but the RB split should now be in favor of Williams. Three of his next 4 matchups are against teams giving up top 6 points to opposing RBs. Williams is on a true trend up and will probably be a high draft pick next year.

James Robinson (RB-JAC) - Week 11 vs SF, 10.8; Week 12 vs ATL, 11.0, Week 13 @ LAR, 2.0: While this isn’t a textbook example of the trend we’re looking for, it’s clear that Robinson’s production had been sliding downward after a really nice stretch earlier in the season. This last week he only had 9 touches in a game that, while a blowout, he should have had lots more work. It appears that Robinson could be in the doghouse. There were reports that during the game, Carlos Hyde needed a breather and Robinson was not put in for him. Robinson has a rough matchup this week against Tennessee, so sitting him wouldn't be a bad move. His next two games are great matchups, so firing him up if he gets more work in Week 14 is the right move. Then he faces the Patriots in the fantasy championship, which is never a fun matchup for anyone.

Russell Gage (WR-ATL) - Week 11 vs NE, 7.40, Week 12 @ JAC, 15.20, Week 13 vs TB, 16.50: The Falcons passing game finally seems to have a focal point, and it’s Russell Gage. Gage has 22 receptions in the last 3 games to go with 27 targets (he had 26 targets in the other 5 games he played in this year). Anyone getting 9 targets per week is going to be on everyone’s fantasy radar, and it helps that he’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games. Gage should continue to get peppered with targets as opposing defenses are forced to focus on Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.

Chase Claypool (WR-PIT) - Week 11 @ LAC, 11.90, Week 12 @ CIN, 9.70, Week 13 vs BAL, 6.40: It’s possible that Claypool is banged up - the rumor is that he has a foot injury, though he practiced yesterday and hasn’t missed any games recently. Regardless, Claypool has not had a very good season, only going over 100 yards and scoring 1 TD all season (that was the same game. He only has 2 other games with double digit points. Claypool’s targets have gone from 9 to 8 to 3 over the last 3 weeks, and last week he played only 63% of offensive snaps, his lowest total since week 5 (and second lowest total for the season). Claypool has only 10 receptions and 3 rushes (for 3 yards) over the last 3 weeks, so he’s not getting the work that you want to see from a guy who was drafted as a WR3 (26th WR taken). Claypool has fantastic matchups for the next 2 weeks, and the 2 after that are still favorable, so it’s going to be tough to keep him on the bench, despite his poor performance recently.