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Drinkfive contributor and creator of The Rookie Report Shawn Foss joins Jason and Dave on another episode of The Fantasy Finish Line to discuss the fantasy outlook of teams in the NFC/AFC South. What is the impact of Andrew Luck's retirement? Can Bruce Arians elevate fantasy values even higher in Tampa Bay? As we wrap up our divisional shows, we wish everyone out there luck with their final fantasy football drafts, but encourage them to tune in to the weekly show in order to brush up on the latest news, updates, and analysis on relevant players.

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Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 8/28/2019: 2019 Preseason, NFC/AFC South

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Last year, the NFC South were essentially the basement dwellers of the NFL, with none of the teams even reaching .500. There were 22 wins between all 4 teams, Tampa Bay didn't win a single game at home, Carolina had a tie (ugh, the worst). 5 of Atlanta's 6 wins came inside the division, where they went an astounding 5-1. None of the teams had a better point differential than -23! Of course, with all of that being said, Carolina still managed to win a playoff game and had an OK showing in Seattle, for one half. So, enough looking in the past, let's see what these teams have done to make things better!

Carolina Panthers (7-8-1):

Add/Re-sign -

Greg Olsen, TE - 3 year extension

Michael Oher, T, 2 year FA contract, Jonathan Martin, T, claimed from waivers

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, 2 year contract (was on the team in 2013)

Cam Newton, QB, 6 year extension

Devin Funchess, WR - 2nd round pick (#41 overall)

Jarrett Boykin, WR - one year contract

Departures -

DeAngelo Williams, RB - Released, now in PIT

Issues:

Last year, the Panthers were severely lacking at the wide receiver position. Their first round pick in 2014, Kelvin Benjamin, did stand out and show a lot of promise. Even with that, it's clear that this offseason, the plan was to get much better at that position. The Panthers will now feature guys on the outside at 6'4" and 6'5", and should easily pass the 3828 yards they had cumulatively last season.

Cam Newton and Greg Olsen, their most legitimate and consistent threat over the last few years, have been re-signed. Olsen, Funchess and Benjamin will help Cam improve from an off year last season where he was troubled by injury early, and again late in the season. A healthy Cam ought to get at least 4000 yards with an improved receiving core.

Jonathan Stewart is now the clear #1 in Carolina, and we all saw how well that worked out at the end of last year. Over the years, fantasy owners have been constantly burned by the two-headed attack that the Panthers have had, splitting carries between Williams and Stewart. Well, worry no more. Stewart is backed up by Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker, so there's really no stopping him from getting the ball 20-25 times per game. The Panthers are packed with good fantasy potential this season, with 4 and perhaps 5 for sure weekly starters.

New Orleans Saints (7-9):

Add/Re-Sign -

C.J. Spiller, RB - FA, 4 year contract

Mark Ingram, RB - 4 year extension

Departures -

Jimmy Graham, TE - Traded to SEA

Pierre Thomas, RB - Cut

Kenny Stills, WR - Traded to MIA

Issues:

It would appear that the Saints have several issues. Traditionally a pass-first team, they traded away two of their top receiving threats, Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. This has a lot of people scratching their head, trying to figure out what the Saints are thinking. Last year's play selection, the addition of C.J. Spiller and the new contract for Mark Ingram all point to this team shifting their focus to a run-first attitude. The early prediction is that Spiller and Ingram will split carries, which, I suppose, will result in the same guessing game that fantasy owners have been dealing with for years.

Drew Brees will continue to be Drew Brees, that is, he's the guy that's thrown for over 4300 yards the last 9 years in a row, and once again lead the league (tied) in passing yards. He may not approach 5000 yards again, but it's probably a sure thing that he has his 10th straight season over 4000 yards. He will probably be a top 5 fantasy QB and will make use of whoever is there at WR.

Speaking of the WR's, who's left? Marques Colston is past his prime, but will still enter the season as the top guy. Brandin Cooks and Nick Toon both showed promise, and they will likely take another step up in their development, with Drew Brees leading the way. Finally, the question most people have been asking about the Saints all offseason, how do you replace Jimmy Graham? Josh Hill will try, but Drew Brees can't perform miracles, so don't expect one. The only sure fantasy value on this team seems to start with Drew Brees. Brandin Cooks has a good shot at being a solid WR2/3, and it's pretty unclear as to who is going to be worth starting at RB, but they're both worth owning.

Atlanta Falcons (6-10):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jacob Tamme, TE - 2 year contract

Tony Moeaki, TE - 1 year contract

Antone Smith, RB - re-sign 1 year contract

Eric Weems, WR - re-sign 2 year contract

Tevin Coleman, RB - 3rd round pick, #73 overall

Departures -

Steven Jackson, RB - Released

Harry Douglans, WR - Released, now in TEN

Jacquizz Rogers, RB - Signed by Bears

Issues:

The Falcons were only able to win one game outside of their division in 2014, yet still had a chance in week 17 to make the playoffs. The NFL is kinda weird sometimes. So, the Falcons already have a few well established fantasy names on their team that you can count on for 2015. Starting with the WR's, Jones and White are going to continue to dominate the targets on the team. Jones has the potential to finish as a top WR, and White, while getting older, can definitely be a threat and fantasy relevant if he stays healthy. Eric Weems was re-signed as the third WR to replace Harry Douglas, but like Douglas, he won't be relevant unless one of the big two guys goes down.

Matt Ryan finished as the #7 fantasy QB last year, and with the same weapons as last year, he will likely remain in the top 10. They're still trying to find a replacement for Tony Gonzalez. They'll use Tamme and Moeaki this season, with Tamme in a primary role. They won't likely wind up as top 10 fantasy guys, however the potential is there in this offense for big production at that position.

The rushing game has been lacking in Atlanta for the last couple of seasons. This year, it's all about the youth movement. Second year RB Devonta Freeman may sit on top of depth charts, but expect third round pick Tevin Coleman to have a good chance at starting. I'm interested in seeing if they will make more use of Antone Smith, a guy who seemed magical every time he touched the ball last season. Overall, the Falcons have three guys you can count on for reliable fantasy production, and a few spots where you could get a couple of surprise performances.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jameis Winston, QB - First Overall pick in the 2015 draft

Donovan Smith, T - 34th overall pick, will protect Winson's blind side

Tim Wright, TE - Claimed off waivers

Henry Melton, Chris Conte, Major Wright - Lovie Smith is adding a bunch of guys that he used to coach on the Bears

Departures -

Josh McCown, QB - Went to Cleveland

Issues:

Last year the Bucs finished a dismal 2-10, they didn't win a single game at home, and they scored 133 fewer points than their opponents, the 4th worst in the league. So, with all of that in mind, the Bucs are putting their faith in Jameis Winston, their first overall draft pick and hopeful franchise QB. Winston is unlikely to break into the top 10 QB's in his first season (few ever do), but he might be worth keeping around as a backup and for bye weeks. His rushing ability will keep his fantasy floor high.

The Bucs current strength on offense definitely lies at the WR position. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are another tall duo on the outside, something that has become very popular lately in the NFL, and for good reason. Both Evans and Jackson went over 1000 yards each, with Evans scoring 12 times. I expect both of them to break 1000 again this year, but any production further down the depth chart is questionable at best.

Doug Martin has had a tumultuous few seasons in the NFL. He was a rookie phenom, but struggled and was also bit by the injury bug in the next two seasons. He's still in line for the starting job, but he has Bobby Rainey, Mike James and Charles Sims all breathing down his neck. This situation will get fleshed out through the preseason - it's anyone's guess at this point what will happen at RB for the Bucs. The Bucs will go with either Tim Wright or Austin Seferian-Jenkins at TE, but neither are really likely to bust out into relevance in Winston's first year. Overall, stick with the WR's on this team for fantasy relevance, and monitor the rest for waiver wire pickups or bench depth.

New Orleans Saints

What’s changed since last year? The Saints have remained pretty steady on offense, with a few minor changes. They acquired Jared Cook at TE, currently ADP 72 (TE7). Cook had his two best receiving yard totals the last two years and he’s moving into an offense that once made epic use of a tight end. He’s got some real potential to be a stand out at a position with very little depth across the league. In the backfield, Mark Ingram has left for Baltimore and the Saints picked up Latavius Murray (ADP 81, RB34) as a change of pace back alongside Alvin Kamara. Murray has at least 6 scores in each of the last 4 seasons and even though TDs aren’t a reliable stat, you can be pretty certain that he will be vulturing a few scores from Kamara.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There are two young WRs, both drafted in 2018, that I’m keeping an eye on this year on the Saints. Keith Kirkwood (no ADP) seems like he’s still stuck as the WR4. He had over 16 yards per reception last year and found the end zone twice, but he had only 13 catches in 8 games. Kirkwood will be fighting for snaps and is only relevant in the deepest leagues. The best breakout candidate is Tre’Quan Smith (ADP 189, WR65) and his value is perfect as a sleeper. You can take him at the end of a draft, so the investment is minimal. Smith put up a few big games last season, and he might find more action if there’s an injury on the Saints. Still, I’d rather have the 3^rd or 4^th option on a great offense as a bye week replacement over a 1^st or 2^nd option on a bad team.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I’m tempted to just recommend Tre’Quan Smith here, but honestly, his draft value is probably appropriate for the role that he’s slated for this season. I do think that Ted Ginn (ADP 255, WR85) is a better option as a sleeper. He’s likely to wind up available at the end of even the deepest drafts and is basically the WR2 on an outstanding offense. He was banged up last season, but had 53 catches on 70 targets the year before, so clearly Brees likes to look his way.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s two guys who I’d love to have on my team, though you’re very unlikely to land both of them. Alvin Kamara (ADP 2, RB2) is a stud and has gone before Barkley in most of the drafts that I’ve done so far this year. Kamara has finished as the 4^th highest scoring RB in each of the last 2 seasons and is the safest of the top tier RBs, in my opinion. Michael Thomas (ADP 12, WR3) is another stud who you can count on for gaudy numbers. His last two seasons he was 8^th in WR points in standard leagues and 6^th in points in PPR leagues. It would be nice to see him get into the end zone a bit more, but his 85% catch rate last season was just absurdly good and it’s hard to ask for improvement on that.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Based on his low ADP, Ted Ginn is likely to be an early season waiver pickup. They have three tough matchups to begin the season, vs Texans, @ Rams and @ Seahawks, so the Saints will need to make good use of all of their weapons if they want to win those games.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Saints traded away a bunch of their picks for 2019 and didn’t select anyone who will be fantasy relevant this season. I would be a terrible host, however, if I didn’t give Shawn a chance to discuss Devine Ozigbo.

Carolina Panthers

What’s changed since last year? The team has parted ways with WR Devin Funchess, who regressed in all statistical categories during a disappointing 2018 campaign. This clears the way for Curtis Samuel to be a regular starter opposite D.J. Moore. More on Samuel in a moment. The Panthers also acquired Chris Hogan, formerly of the Patriots. Hogan basically averages between 55 and 61 targets per year, and that’s over two different teams. I don’t expect much more than that from Hogan, unless there’s injuries ahead of him.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? D.J. Moore (ADP 67, WR28) nearly reached our breakout criteria last season, with 788 yards his rookie season. I think Moore can certainly improve on those numbers as the first option in the passing game this year, and he’s being drafted like someone who will start every week on most fantasy teams. I also like third year WR Curtis Samuel (ADP 97, WR40). He’s improved every year so far and with the departure of Funchess, he’s been moved up the depth chart and should start all season. Both of these guys are not going to go under the radar, so if you see them at good value, I suggest drafting them. Most defenses will be very concerned with stopping Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton, so there should be plenty of opportunity for the WRs to break loose.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? The fantasy relevance on the Panthers isn’t too deep, but I’d argue that Greg Olsen (ADP 144, TE15) is a worthy sleeper pick. Olsen needs to stay healthy to be relevant, of course, but when he is, his talent puts him just a hair behind the tier 1 TEs. If you’re drafting a TE at the end of the draft like this, you’re probably comfortable with streaming TEs. This is your insurance against any injury to Olsen. His ceiling is much higher than anyone being drafted near him, you just need to deal with his floor of “instantly broken foot”.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Last year’s RB revelation, Christian McCaffrey (ADP 3, RB3), is a lot of people’s top choice this season. In PPR, he finished 10^th in 2017 and 2^nd in 2018. He’s not missed a game in his career so far (this will be his third season), but his touches did nearly double last year to 327. Usually, RBs can go a couple of years with this kind of workload, so I feel confident that he can remain healthy AND will get a ton of touches this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? The Panthers DST (ADP 268, DST25) and kicker Graham Gano (ADP 295, K25) are both ranked rather low at their respective positions, but have been traditionally reliable and will definitely be streaming options throughout the season. TE Ian Thomas (ADP 311, TE33) is also a guy to keep an eye on, especially if you wind up drafting Greg Olsen’s broken foot. Thomas looked OK during his rookie season filling in for Olsen, and aside from a 7 game stretch in the middle of the season where he had just 1 catch, he was as good as any other streaming TE option.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Panthers do not have any rookies at skill positions that are going to be fantasy relevant this season. Will Grier has competed for the backup job behind Cam, but hasn’t impressed anyone. Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield will compete to be the backup to McCaffrey.

Atlanta Falcons

What’s changed since last year? The Falcons have had a dual backfield attack for the last couple of seasons, but Tevin Coleman has moved out west, leaving Devonta Freeman (ADP 31, RB16) as the main back and Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB56) as the change of pace guy. I suspect that this winds up as more of a Freeman dominated backfield, with Smith getting just 5-8 touches per game at most. The rest of the Falcons offense looks much like it did last season, which finished 6^th in total yards, despite (or maybe because of) being 29^th in average starting field position.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Well, he’s not going to surprise anyone, as he very nearly reached our breakout threshold last season, but Calvin Ridley (ADP 53, WR22) is a second year WR with all the tools to be a top 10 WR alongside Julio Jones. He’s the younger half of what is arguably one of the best WR combos in the league. With 92 targets last year and 10 TDs, he will certainly see a lot of passes thrown his way this season, though reproducing that touchdown total will be difficult. I like Ridley if he falls to you around the 60^th pick – just don’t reach for him expecting him to have double digit touchdowns again.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? I like Austin Hooper (ADP 127, TE12) as a guy who you can pick up way late in the draft and will probably be able to start most of the season. He’s had a solid few years, improving his stats every season as he goes along. Last year, he had 71 receptions on 88 targets – numbers that only a few TEs can count on. I expect him to get at least as much work with Dirk Koetter as the Falcons OC. Koetter is the guy who made OJ Howard a big name in fantasy, and made us all learn just who the heck Cameron Brate is. He even made Marcedes Lewis a pro-bowler back in 2010.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The same guy who you’ve tried to draft every year from the Atlanta Falcons. It’s Quintorris Lopez (Julio) Jones (ADP 14, WR4), of course! Julio, despite being panned for not making it to the end zone until week 8, finished the season with a league-high 1677 yards and had 8 TDs. He broke the 100 yard mark 10 times last season. And perhaps the best thing to look forward to – the Falcons don’t play outside until November 17^th in Charlotte, not a notorious bad weather city. Their only other outdoor games are in San Francisco and Tampa Bay, so I expect to see big things from the Falcons offense this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Since the Falcons offense trends towards high volume for a few guys, I would keep an eye on these two players for waiver pickups, especially if guys ahead of them go down. Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB 56) and Mohamed Sanu (ADP 175, WR61) are both likely to not produce enough on their own, but could find themselves with a lot of playing time if there’s injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. If you’re in a deeper league, it’s certainly possible that they are both drafted, so keep an eye out.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Falcons did not draft any fantasy relevant skill position players this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers...coming soon.

Whelp, just sat down Thursday morning to look over the slate of games coming up this week and holy
shit! I need to pick the Panthers who play tonight! Now, I generally try to avoid the Thursday night games
because they have proven to be quite chaotic, but I liked the way the Panthers played the Rams last week
and think that defense should have a field day with Jameis Winston in their house. Jameis must have wax
in his ears, because he has not heard the whispers from Bruce Arians as was apparent from his 3
interception, 55% completion percentage performance against the Niners.

Week 1 didn't really have any big upsets, so only 152 of the original 1499 entrants were taken down.
Shockingly, the biggest party pooper was the Cleveland shit Browns, that had 77 people drinking the
kool-aid, followed by 25 lost to the Bears opening night. Predictably the majority of the picks went to the
two biggest home favorites Seattle and Philadelphia. (apparently they all read this column)

The lock pick this week is the Patriots favored by 19 against the tanking Dolphins. I used them for one of
my picks and it just feels dirty. I am curious to see if they are the top pick this week as per usual with the
largest favorite or if people will think that is a waste of the Patriots to pick against Miami.