Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was an exciting one, and one that went much more according to plan than week 3. Fitzmagic may have died for good, Corey Davis finally had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for, and Patrick Mahomes saw his legend grow after an incredible left-handed throw helped the Chiefs to a come from behind win on Monday night. It was an exciting week for some rookies as well. Keke Coutee burst onto the scene with a 100-yard day in his NFL debut, Nick Chubb found the end zone twice, and Sony Michel posted 100 rushing yards for the first time. It wasn’t as fruitful a day for the rookie QBs, as all 4 came away with L’s in week 4. Baker Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times, and he still probably played better than Josh Allen. The fun continues this week, so let’s take a look at what to expect in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 5: @Car.): Barkley has shown himself to be a locked-in RB1 every week regardless of opponent. He’s not an ideal DFS option this week facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest RB points per game (all scores and ranks are in PPR format), but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues. His usage gives him too much weekly upside to bench him.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): The Patriots are a 10-point favorite this week at home against the Colts, and the Rex Burkhead injury has clarified the team’s backfield roles. Michel has taken the reins of the early down work, and James White will serve as the 3rd-down receiving back moving forward. That makes both backs extremely valuable moving forward. In week 4, Michel handled 25 carries despite playing just 33 offensive snaps. He’s the focal point of the run game, and the Pats should get to do a bunch of running again this week. Sony has a chance at a big game.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Regression is likely coming for Ridley, but with 6 TDs in his last 3 games, you have to ride the hot streak while it lasts. That’s especially true with the Falcons traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers’ defense that is bleeding the 3rd-most WR points per game to opponents. Keep rolling with Ridley for now. He may be here to stay.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Rosen is an intriguing option in 2QB leagues this week facing a less than stellar 49ers’ secondary. The rookie looked at least competent in his first NFL start, and the 49ers have allowed the 8th-most QB fantasy points per game and rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA statistic. San Francisco has also allowed at least 20 QB points and 2 passing TDs each and every week. Rosen has potential for a much better showing than what he did a week ago.
RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Freeman and Lindsay both have shown themselves to be weekly borderline RB2 options regardless of game script, and this week should be no different. The Jets have allowed 30+ RB points in back-to-back weeks, and are not a defense to run away from with this duo. Freeman is the better option in standard leagues, and Lindsay is the better option in PPR formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 5: vs. GB): It’s going to be hard to fully rely on Kerryon until the Lions give him the keys to the backfield. His efficiency has been off the charts. He’s averaged more than 5 yards per carry in each of the last 3 games, but he’s averaged just 11 attempts per game. If his efficiency drops a bit, the weekly floor is concerning. Kerryon played just 20 snaps last week out of 54 team offensive snaps. That’s just not enough playing time to treat Johnson as an every-week starter.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Hines’s role as the top receiving back in Indy seems pretty secure after the way he played in week 4. If Marlon Mack returns this week, I still think Hines gets a decent number of targets. The game script certainly will play in his favor with the Pats favored by 10. He’s going to be a valuable PPR flex option going forward.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Will Fuller is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. If Fuller isn’t able to go, Coutee is a solid flex or WR3 in deeper leagues. He came on the scene in a big way last Sunday, putting up 11-109 on 15 targets in his season debut. The Cowboys do a good job of slowing down the game, but they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. It may feel like point chasing to use Coutee this week, but the opportunity should be there if Fuller sits.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): For all the excitement Mayfield brought in his first NFL action in leading the Browns to their first win in more than a year, he came crashing back to earth a bit in his first start. Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times against a lackluster Raiders’ team, and gets a tougher matchup with the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed just one passing score total in the 3 games that they didn’t square off against the Bengals. You might not have a choice in deeper 2QB leagues, but I’d probably lean against Baker this week in most formats.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): The Broncos are not the shut down pass defense they once were, but they’re not exactly a defense to target either. Darnold has put up 3 consecutive shaky performances since his strong debut, and I don’t feel confident that this is the week he gets it going again. He’s a desperation QB2 at best.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): We got to see the good Josh Allen against the Vikings 2 weeks ago, and the bad against the Packers last Sunday…and it was very bad. The Titans are a decent pass defense that has been improving as the season has gone on, but the Vikings weren’t exactly slouches on that side of the ball. Allen’s Jekyll & Hyde act makes him a boom-or-bust QB2 option. There is too much QB production out there this season to take on that weekly risk in a matchup like this one.
RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Game script is likely to be negative for the Colts in this one, and Wilkins hasn’t produced much in the opportunities he’s received thus far. Hines is a much better option at this point.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Even with Chris Carson sidelined in week 4, Penny played second fiddle to Mike Davis, who was extremely impressive in a win over the Cardinals. The Rams are stingy versus the run, and Penny may be the number 3 back moving forward if Carson returns. This is a player to avoid for now.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Chubb’s 2 long TD runs last Sunday were exciting to see and may have earned him more playing time moving forward, but he played just 3 snaps. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, so I would steer clear even if you believe the playing time will go up. Don’t chase last week’s points.
RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Walton did see a bit more work behind Gio Bernard in week 4, but even with Mixon out he’s no more than a change-of-pace back. He shouldn’t be in your lineups at this point.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): The Jets rank 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA, and QB Case Keenum’s play has been spotty at best. Sutton is no more than a DFS tournament dart throw this week, even though he’s been outplaying Demaryius Thomas lately.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Kirk is averaging 5 catches per game over the past 3 weeks, but he also averaged 7 yards per catch or fewer in 2 of them. The QB switch to Rosen is likely good for him overall, but his current usage really isn’t helpful in fantasy leagues. A line of 5-30 isn’t going to be much benefit in anything but the deepest of leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Callaway has seen plenty of opportunity over the past few weeks, but he hasn’t turned it into production and has made several mistakes on the field. Hue Jackson has talked about dialing back Callaway’s playing time this week. It may just be a motivation tactic, but I think he’ll make good on it Sunday. I’m staying away from Callaway this week, especially against a solid Ravens’ defense.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I’m hopeful the Panthers made an effort to come up with ways to get DJ more involved over the bye week, but I need to see it before I believe it, especially facing a Giants’ defense that has allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 5: @Hou.): The Texans’ defense against WRs is trending in the wrong direction (22.6, 27.9, 42.4. and 67.4 PPR points allowed in the first 4 games), and Gallup is trending in the right direction (1,2,4, and 5 targets in the first 4 games), but he’s still not seeing enough action to be worth a roll of the dice here. Gallup has totaled just 5-76-0 in 4 weeks.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): With Alshon back Goedert just wasn’t a featured part of the offense in week 4. He was targeted just twice in Carson Wentz’s 37 passing attempts. It seems that at least for now Zach Ertz is back in charge of the TE passing looks in the Eagles’ offense. Goedert should stay on your bench for now.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Hurst’s likely return this week makes an already murky TE situation even more confusing for Baltimore. There are already 3 tight ends playing a decent number of snaps, and adding a 4th won’t add much clarity. We need to wait at least a week to see how things play out.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): The Giants are allowing the 5th-fewest TE points per game, and Thomas has yet to clear 20 receiving yards in a game. He has been targeted in the red zone 3 times, but the Giants are yet to allow a TD to a tight end. I don’t expect Thomas to be the one to break through this week.
Rookies on bye: RB Ronald Jones III, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): If Devonta Freeman is active this week, scratch everything that I write here about Smith this week, but Ito has been useful in the deepest of leagues while Freeman has been out. He’s averaged 8 touches and 43 yards per game over the last 3 weeks, and should make an intriguing fill-in for really deep leagues and DFS tournaments if Devonta winds up sidelined again. This game has the makings of a shootout, so there will be plenty of fantasy numbers to go around.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have been shredded by WRs thus far, and have lost 3 safeties to injury this season. Washington has been playing a ton of snaps. The targets are bound to come eventually. He’s an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments this weekend with this game having the highest over/under number of the week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 5: @Det.): Randall Cobb wasn’t close to playing last week. Geronimo Allison was concussed last Sunday against Buffalo. Davante Adams will match up against Darius “Big Play” Slay. If Allison is out, There will be opportunity for one of Green Bay’s rookie WRs. Valdes-Scantling is the most likely beneficiary after playing 54 snaps in Cobb’s absence in week 4. We haven’t seen enough production to trust him in season-long leagues, but he’s a very interesting DFS dart throw for tournaments this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): This is as good a week as any to try Gesicki in DFS tournaments. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and have allowed a TD to the position in 3 out of 4 games. Game script should keep the Dolphins throwing with Cincy favored by nearly a touchdown.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make certain not to start anyone who is sitting the week out. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Week 4 is here and it's time to start dealing with more injuries and now bye weeks! The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins will be taking an early break this season, so there's plenty of fantasy players to be replaced. Rookies like Calvin Ridley and Sony Michel will find their way into many lineups this week. Good luck in Week 4 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it about halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to kick your playoff push for the fantasy playoffs into high gear. This week is going to challenge many fantasy teams with SIX NFL teams on a bye, and among them several peak fantasy performers. With that in mind, there are going to be some unexpected rookies who are going to push themselves into the usable range in shallower leagues. There were also some trades this week that may have opened up new opportunities for a couple rookies. Before I dive into the week 9 breakdown, I did want to mention one rookie who is sitting out this week on bye. Eagles' rookie Josh Adams is well worth a pickup after providing a solid rushing effort last week in a wide open backfield. He has a chance to be a top-30 back down the stretch if his performance continues. Now let's look at the outlook for the rest of the rooks...
Rookies to Start:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Royce Freeman is likely going to be sidelined this week and Lindsay has done well to establish himself as a weekly RB2 even with Freeman healthy. The Texans aren't an inviting matchup, ranking 1st in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, but there's no reason to sit Lindsay in a week with so many top options on byes.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Chubb also will likely be a beneficiary of all of the byes this week. Saquon, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon and David Johnson are all off this week, and Kansas City allows more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. The Browns' offense has been sputtering lately, and things are in flux with the coaching changes, but Chubb should be a solid RB2 in a plus matchup this week. The only fear is that game script may get away from him with the Browns a 10-point underdog.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): KC's been sharp against the pass in the last 2 weeks, but they've still allowed the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Mayfield has been less than stellar over the past couple weeks, but he's recorded at least 1 touchdown in every start he's made this year, and the coaching changes may provide a boost to Mayfield and the offense. With 6 QBs out this week, Mayfield makes for a reasonable QB2 option.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In 2-QB leagues, just about everyone is in play this week. Darnold strikes me as more of a desperation option, but there is some reason for optimism. His yardage totals have been low (more than 210 passing yards just twice in 8 games), but the Dolphins have coughed up multiple TDs in 4 of the past 5 contests, and have given up 14 total passing TDs in those weeks. They also rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. There are worse fill-in options this week for 2-QB formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): You're almost certainly going to play Kerryon if you have him given how he's played lately, especially with the byes and with the Lions likely to employ a more balanced approach with Golden Tate shipped off to Philly. The issue for Kerryon this week is the matchup, and the possible return of Theo Riddick. Minnesota has allowed just one team's RB group to top 60 rushing yards in the past 4 weeks, and they rank 10th in run defense DVOA. Theo may cut into his passing game work. This makes Johnson a risky RB2 for week 9.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 9: vs. GB): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Michel. He got in a limited practice on Saturday before not playing on Monday night, so there is a decent chance he plays this week. It's a solid matchup if he's able to suit up with Green Bay ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. He's a worthy flex or RB2 option if he's able to play. The Pats are unlikely to hold him back if they played Cordarrelle Patterson in his stead on Monday.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ridley may even be in play for you as a WR2 if you're hard up due to byes. He's been quiet lately after his early season TD barrage, being held to under 50 receiving yards in each of the past 3 contests with zero scores, but he was the 2nd-most targeted Falcon last week after Julio Jones. This week is a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a middling Washington WR defense. There's risk here that he continues to stay in the 3-40-0 range, but I like his chances for a bounceback game.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk.9: vs. TB): This will be as good a week as any to take a risk on DJ Moore. The Bucs allow the 2nd most WR points per game, and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Moore's role has been rapidly increasing. Over the past 4 games he's tallied 18 catches for 237 yards, and 4 rushes for 75, and he set a season-high with 129 scrimmage yards in week 8. There's a chance he duplicates that feat in a great matchup.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): With Demaryius Thomas gone, the WR2 role in Denver is wide open for Sutton to take over. That role didn't exactly work out well for DT, but the Texans rank 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the number 2 WR. He's more of an upside play than a safe option this week, but the drop off in target competition should give him a higher floor moving forward.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. KC): If Freeman manages to play, he'll likely take a back seat to Phillip Lindsay and be eased back into action. Since the Texans rank 1st in run defense DVOA, this probably isn't the best spot to take a chance on a limited Freeman.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ito has upside as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but this isn't a great matchup. Washington has allowed just 90 total rushing yards and zero total TDs to running backs in the past 3 weeks, and they faced Zeke, Saquon, and McCaffrey in that stretch. Ito isn't on that level. I'd look elsewhere for RB help this week.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk.9: @Sea.): Ok, so you weren't actually considering playing Jackson this week, but he's definitely worth watching for those of you playing in dynasty leagues if Melvin Gordon is out again. Rookie scouting guru Matt Waldman compared Jackson with Jamaal Charles in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and this may be the first real look we get at him. He was ultra-productive in college at Northwestern. If he impresses, he may be worth a stash in deeper dynasty formats.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Keke's status is still up in the air this week as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and his overall outlook took a hit with the trade for Demaryius Thomas. Coutee will still have WR3 upside when healthy, but I'd probably steer clear this week. The Broncos' best corner Chris Harris Jr patrols the slot, and the Broncos rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs who aren't their team's #1 or 2.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk.9: vs. Ten.): Gallup seemed to be making strides when he posted his best game of the year before the bye (3-81-1)...then thee Cowboys went out and traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper's role as the team's WR1 should be obvious after the team spent a first round pick to acquire him. The rest of the WR group already was tough to figure out, and now there are less snaps and targets to divvy up between them. Keep Gallup parked on the bench until we see him emerge with Amari around.
WR Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Ratley had just one catch in week 8, and it's likely that Rashard Higgins will return this week and push Ratley back to the bench.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Andrews continues to be the most involved TE in the Ravens' passing game, but it isn't resulting in fantasy success. Hurst did post his first career TD last Sunday after head coach John Harbaugh talked about getting him more involved, but it came in garbage time with Lamar Jackson at QB. Neither player is doing enough to trust this week.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Don't be fooled by the 2 touchdowns from last week, tight ends don't get featured in this offense. Thomas had just 4 catches all season prior to week 8, and in his 'breakout' 2-TD game he was asked to block on nearly two-thirds of the snaps he played. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance.
Rookies on Bye: QB Josh Rosen, ARI, RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB Josh Adams, PHI, RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND, RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, RB Mark Walton, CIN, WR Christian Kirk, ARI, WR DJ Chark, JAX, TE Dallas Goedert, PHI
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Trenton Cannon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins are favored to win this game, and they've allowed the 9th-most RB receiving yards on the year. Cannon wasn't overly productive last week, but he will continue to play the 3rd-down role at least until Eli McGuire returns from IR. He's only an option in deep PPR leagues this week. Make sure that McGuire isn't returning this week before pulling the trigger.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): I'm still on the Tre'Quan train despite limited results over the past 2 weeks. Drew Brees likely won't be limited to 120 passing yards again in a game with the highest over/under of the week, and Smith is running as the Saints' WR2. He'll be hard to trust in anything but deeper leagues and DFS tournaments, but there is still big upside here.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Miller has been targeted 7 times in each of the last 2 weeks, and it seems there's a good chance A-Rob misses another game this week. The rookie has caught just 5 of those 14 targets for 72 yards and a score, but he's likely to avoid the coverage of Tre'Davious White since White rarely goes into the slot. Miller is a better option than teammate Taylor Gabriel this week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk.9: @NE): Despite the return to action of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in week 8, Valdes-Scantling still played ahead of them. It may just be the Packers easing the injured guys back in, but if it continues here MVS has some decent upside. This tilt has shootout potential with the 2nd-highest O/U of the week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Callaway finally had a game where he caught more than half of his targets, pulling in 5-of-6 opportunities and finding the end zonein week 8. The yardage was limited, but it was still a good sign to see his efficiency improve. The Browns will likely be throwing a lot this week, and the Chiefs are a good matchup for WRs. I'm not ready to fully trust Callaway, but he's an interesting upside play this week, especially as a cheap DFS tournament option.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): We haven't seen much of Hamilton yet, but with Demaryius shipped off to Houston he should step into the WR3 role that resulted in a few productive weeks for Courtland Sutton. DaeSean is an intriguing stash for deeper dynasty leagues to see how his role shakes out without DT.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): There isn't a lot of yardage upside with Herndon, but he's a better than average TD dart throw this week. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, and the Dolphins have allowed 5 scores to the position in the last 3 contests.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your toughest lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. It could be a messy week with so many byes, so make sure to keep an extra close eye on the injury report this week to make sure all of your players suit up, and to look for unexpected opportunity that can benefit your team. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it to the double-digit weeks, which means we're in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. Week 9 saw the surprising debut of Nick Mullens, and an apocalyptic performance by Sam Darnold against the Dolphins. DJ Moore's purported breakout didn't quite go according to plan, but Calvin Ridley found his way back into the end zone and Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued his mid-season surge. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 10, and which rookies could help you improve your playoff positioning this week.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Of course you're starting Barkley in season-long leagues, but he should be a chalky play in DFS cash games this week as well. The 49ers should let him have a solid receiving day since only 4 teams have allowed more RB receptions and only 4 have allowed more RB receiving TDs on the year. Barkley has been the engine of the Giants' offense, and he's a strong RB1 this week once again.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Duke Johnson is the more popular name after last weekend's 9-catch, 2-score game, but Chubb still notched more than 20 carries and faces a Falcons' defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. There's room in this matchup for both Chubb and Duke to be solid RB2s.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Ridley got back into the end zone last week, and he's a reasonable WR3 option this week. The Browns aren't a great matchup, ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game (all point totals and ranks are based on PPR scoring). This isn't a matchup to run away from. Ridley should be a solid WR3, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you had 3 really solid options to play over him and sat him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game on the year. They've allowed 6 of 7 QBs faced to reach 300 passing yards, and 6 of 7 to reach at least 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in 3 consecutive games. Mayfield should be a high floor QB2 this week with some appeal as a back-end QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Sony should be active this week, but the Pats could ease him back in after the success Cordarrelle Patterson had at running back against Green Bay. The Titans are a tough matchup, allowing the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to sit him if it looks like he'll get his usual role back. Sony tallied at least 92 rushing yards and a TD in each of the 3 full games he played.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): The Lions' offense really sputtered in their first game after dealing away Golden Tate. It was a tough matchup against a strong Vikings' defense, but things don't get much easier for Kerryon and company this week in Chicago. Johnson still has some upside, but the Bears are allowing the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Theo Riddick's return has put a damper on KJ's receiving opportunities. Kerryon should be viewed as an upside flex play this weekend.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Valdes-Scantling has been running as the number 2 WR for the Packers, even with Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back on the field, and Allison suffered a season-ending groin injury last Sunday night. I'm not quite ready to go all-in on MVS due to his reliance on big plays to post fantasy production, but he's managed to reach double-digit scoring in 4 straight games. The number 2 WR in any Aaron Rodgers offense is a fantasy threat. The Dolphins are allowing just the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but MVS should be a boom-or-bust WR3 option.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Cardinals will undoubtedly be throwing a lot in this one as 17(!)-point underdogs to Kansas City. Kirk has been the most consistent fantasy WR in Arizona, averaging just under 13 PPR points per game in his past 6 contests. There's always some risk in this low-floor offense, especially now that there is a new coordinator who may try to get DJ and Fitz more involved, but Kirk's upside makes him a decent WR3 option in deeper PPR formats.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Moore was a big letdown in a great matchup last Sunday, but he may have been limited by Carolina playing from way ahead most of the day. I wouldn't expect the same result in the Steel City. Pittsburgh isn't as tantalizing a matchup as Tampa, but it's not far behind. The Steelers allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I don't know if this will come up in the game, but the Steelers also have allowed 10 yards per carry to WRs on the 4 attempts they've faced, and Moore is averaging 17 yards per rush on 7 carries. I'd expect a carry or 2 for DJ again. If you were burned by Moore last week, you may hesitate to roll the dice again, but I would be willing to go back to that well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Nick Mullens, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG.): Mullens technically isn't a rookie after spending all of 2017 on the 49ers practice squad, but I'll make an exception and include him after his breakout NFL debut last Thursday. I'd be surprised if Mullens manages to replicate his performance this week. The Giants allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in 5 games out of 8, and a total of just 5 TD passes in those 5 games. There is some appeal in deeper 2-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS tournament option, but he carries a ton of risk.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Darnold fell flat on his face in a plus matchup last week, and gets a much tougher one this Sunday. The Bills have allowed 10 fantasy points or fewer to 4 of the last 7 QBs they've faced, and they've allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to just one of them. Darnold isn't worth the risk even in 2QB leagues this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): There is some deep league PPR upside for Hines, but Jacksonville allows just the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has given up the 2nd-fewest RB receptions. Wilkins is stuck behind Marlon Mack on early downs. Mack's big performances late have made Wilkins useless for fantasy purposes.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Even if Chris Carson sits, Penny just isn't getting enough opportunities to be a useful option. Mike Davis is going to see the lion's share of the work if Carson is out.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Tre'Quan has struggled to breakout as the Saints' WR2, and New Orleans added Dez Bryant this week. Smith may still work as the number 2 guy this week, and there's always big potential as the WR2 in this offense, but he's got no more than 3 catches in a game and has only topped 44 yards once. If you're considering using him, keep a close eye on the expected playing time for Dez this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I was tempted to call Gallup a sleeper this week, but it's hard to get too excited about his upside in this offense even if he's the WR2. Philly has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Gallup has averaged 3 catches for 66 yards in the past 2 games. There's some upside if you want to roll the dice on him as a DFS punt option, but I probably wouldn't consider him for much more than that.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Goedert is basically a TD dart throw this week against a defense that has allowed just 2 tight end scores on the year. He's posted a total of 10-111-2 over the past 5 games.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Herndon's role has been growing, but he faces a tough matchup this week. The Bills rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, and have allowed an average of 2-26 per game over the past 5 games and gave up 2 scores to the position in that span. You're basically praying for a TD if you play him.
Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Chiefs have been improving steadily against the pass, so Rosen is probably no more than a QB2 in the deepest of leagues, but Rosen has had an extra week to get ready for this game and the new offensive coordinator had an extra week to get David Johnson more involved. As improved as they are, Kansas City has still allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. Rosen has a reasonable chance to post his best fantasy game of the year.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Tevin Coleman seems to have a firm grasp on the receiving work out of the backfield, but Ito continues to play a significant role as a runner. He's an intriguing flex option this week against a Browns' team that has allowed a league-high 12 RB rushing scores and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. He's a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): This might not be the best week to run Adams out there in lineups with the Cowboys ranking 4th in run defense DVOA. Josh's recent success has come as a runner, not as a receiver. Still, his 9-61 rushing day before last week's bye should at least earn him a bigger role moving forward in a wide-open backfield. He's worthy of a stash this week, and decent desperation option in deep leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Callaway's efficiency has been improving in the last couple weeks, and this is a prime matchup with the Falcons allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game. Antonio remains an upside option in deeper leagues.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Chark seemed to be ascending in this offense before the bye, posting 4 catches in back-to-back games. The matchup this week isn't enticing with the Colts ranking in the top-10 in the league at limiting WR points, but Chark is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues. He's got size and speed to burn, so his upside goes way up if the Jaguars start to utilize him downfield.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tough lineup decisions involving the rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play any players who wind up being inactive. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.