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09
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 1

Guess who’s back! Back again! Um…well…it’s me!

More so than that, it’s football!

Even MORE so than that, it’s football stadium’s across the country filled with fans again!

2020 gave us one of the more memorable seasons to say the least, for all of the wrong reasons. But, let’s try and forget another Tom Brady Super Bowl (see what I did there?)

I don’t know about you, but seven months is LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Chicago – Dalton or Fields…Fields or Dalton…yeah…wouldn’t matter either way this week.

15 – TENNESSEE over Arizona – The Titans were sneaky dangerous last year…now with Julio in the mix they are just dangerous!

14 – TAMPA BAY over Dallas – The season starts where last season ended – in Tampa…with the Bucs winning.

13 – BUFFALO over Pittsburgh – A win over a solid Steelers team would further confirm the Bills’ spot towards the top of the league.

12 – KANSAS CITY over Cleveland – I see the Browns continuing to take steps in the right direction this season. Unfortunately they drew a road game against the Chiefs to start the season.

11 – San Francisco over DETROIT – My Week 1 Bold Prediction last year was that the Jaguars would only win one game…NAILED IT! In keep with the theme of predictable mediocrity, while it won’t be as bad, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE LIONS WILL END THE SEASON ‘ON THE CLOCK” WITH THE WORST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE.

10 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – Foxboro hosts the first of what I’m sure will be many Saban Bowls with Mac vs Tua – Mac wins round 1 since he’s at home.

9 – Green Bay over NEW ORLEANS – The reigning MVP will have a lot to prove after a circus of an off-season.

8 – CAROLINA over New York Jets – Sam Darnold’s mentality is simple – “yeah it makes sense that the Jets ditched me for Zach Wilson…but at least now I have CMC behind me!”

7 – Seattle over INDIANAPOLIS – The pre-season was spent dealing with injuries for the Colts – no way they are ready for the Seahawks.

6 – Minnesota over CINCINNATI – Joe Burrow can be a top quarterback in this league…once the Bengals are actually able to protect him for more than 1.7 seconds in the pocket. Drafting a guy who can’t catch a ball because the NFL ball doesn’t have white lines like it does in college won’t help.

5 – Baltimore over LAS VEGAS – REALLY wanted to say the Raiders would win the first game in Vegas with fans…but I have a responsibility to be unbiased…unfortunately.

4 – ATLANTA over Philadelphia – Remember when this would have been an elite matchup? Yeah, not so much now.

3 – Jacksonville over HOUSTON – It was very thoughtful of the league to ease Trevor Lawrence into the league by making his first game against a team similar to one he would have gone against in a Clemson practice last year.

2 – NEW YORK GIANTS - Denver – This is a make or break year for Daniel Jones – I think he makes it.

1 – WASHINGTON over Los Angeles Chargers – Dear Lord I can’t wait to not have to say Washington Football Team!

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30
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 4

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Well, here we are, the week with the game that everyone circled as soon as the schedule was announced back in the spring…The Return! I think we are all looking forward to see the reception the scorned city will give. Cheers? Boos? Tears? We’ll all find out in prime time…on Monday when the Raiders return to Los Angeles after playing nearly 15 season there a few decades ago.

What? … … … is there a more relevant and timely return this week?

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over Houston – Deshaun Watson isn’t walking through that door anytime soon…and it probably wouldn’t help anyway.

15 – CINCINNATI over Jacksonville – After this week, Trevor Lawrence will have lost as many games in four weeks in the NFL as he did in his entire time in college…AND high school!

14 – Tennessee over NEW YORK JETS – No AJ Brown, possibly no Julio Jones…but if you still have Derrick Henry, the Jets won’t be a problem.

13 – GREEN BAY over Pittsburgh – Safe to say the Steelers front office is realizing that this era is coming to an end. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE STEELERS WILL FINISH UNDER .500.

12 – Baltimore over DENVER – Can’t play the bottom of the league’s barrel every week, Denver.

11 – Tampa Bay over NEW ENGLAND – I wonder if Gronk is sad that no one outside of his family is talking about HIS return to Gillette Stadium.

10 – NEW ORLEANS over New York Giants – I really want to think that this will be a good game…but then I remember…the Giants.

9 – DALLAS over Carolina – This will definitely be a game where the Panthers miss Christian McCaffrey.

8 – MIAMI over Indianapolis - The Colts should be better than they are. If they turn it around this year, it won’t start this week.

7 – Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO – It’s hard for me to think Seattle will lose three games in a row. After last week, it’s pretty easy for me to think that the 9ers can blow a game again.

6 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – These two teams are just going to be fun to watch! If you are a bettor, take the over!

5 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Yes it’s a “road” game, but SoFi Stadium is expected to be 75% Raiders fans on Monday Night.

4 – Kansas City over PHILADELPHIA – It might sound crazy, but then again maybe it doesn’t. If you wanted to pick the Eagles to win this game, I wouldn’t be mad at you!

3 – MINNESOTA over Cleveland – If Dalvin Cook is ready to go, you can bump this up a few lines if you want.

2 – Washington over ATLANTA – I have nothing entertaining to say here…which is pretty fitting for this matchup I think.

1 – CHICAGO over Detroit – It’s a no-lose situation for Bears fans. If you win, hey you won a football game! If not, then it’s hard to see Matt Nagy on the sidelines for Week 5 let alone a new Arlington Heights stadium!

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03
October

NFL Survivor Pool: Week 4

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Week three was relatively safe for everyone in the pool, with all the big favorites taking care of business. About 15% of the league were resurrected by Saint Justin Tucker's NFL record 66 yard field goal as time expired, but who could root against that kick? The Chiefs loss against the Chargers knocked out 18 for the highest number of the week bringing the total survivors down to 1064. Already 199 people have moved on this week with that actually exciting Thursday night game, where the Bengals pulled out a comeback win with a game-ending field goal. That may have been the best spot all year to play Cincinnati and they almost punished you for it. After watching my first Jaguars game, I don't see a winless season in their future.

I decided to use my two picks on the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week opening at -16.5 against the quarterbackless Houston Texans. Buffalo looks to be rolling now ever since their week one slip up against the Steelers. Houston has no chance against any of the better teams in the league until they upgrade their QB.

The Titans are my second choice for the week. There is no need for concern about them not having any wide receivers, they are playing the Jets. The Titans will get plenty of receptions on defense to make up for the absence of Brown and Jones. Zach Wilson must be ecstatic for Justin Fields' start for the Bears so he is no longer the biggest embarrassment at QB so far. Titans defense and a heavy dose of Derick Henry should be all it takes.

Good luck everyone! And Drink Five!

ENTRY #1 ENTRY #2

RAMS BUCCANEERS

BUCCANEERS BROWNS

BRONCOS CARDINALS

BILLS TITANS

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06
October

NFL Week 5 Early Line Betting Tips

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

It is crazy how fast the NFL season goes once you get into it. We are headed into week 5, the last week before bye weeks start. We also have our first London game of the year! I think I speak for every American when I whole heartedly apologize to our British brothers and sisters for sending them the Jets and Falcons. Short note, that game kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern time Sunday morning. Set your alarms, but more importantly set those fantasy lineups.

Two more wins for the official drinkfive picks brings our season record to 8-4. Seattle rolled in San Francisco and won outright as a road dog and we double dipped with the Ravens in Denver as a dog, or short favorite, and on the money line. Minnesota was a disappointing loss and my hat goes off to the Cleveland Browns holding that offense to 7 points on their own field. Aside from our official picks I had a lot of fun, and wins, with teasers last weekend, so I wanted to start with a little teaser blurb and point on some teams this week to consider throwing in a teaser play.

A teaser is similar to a parlay in the sense that you need more than one win to win the bet. Unlike a parlay though a teaser does change the spread and total. Traditionally teasers are done in 6-point increments. Dogs gain an extra 6 points and favorites subtract 6 points from their number; likewise, with totals. There at a few rules you should always follow when playing teasers. First, never cross the zero! You lose value when you cross the zero with a favorite because you are “giving up” a whole point when the number crosses the zero. The second rule is to cross two key numbers. This works for both favorite and dog teasers. Crossing two key numbers present the best value and highlights a significant advantage to the bettor.

Teaser Teams for Week 5 Include:

Seattle +2.5 to +8.5

Washington +1.5 to +7.5

Minnesota -8.5 to -2.5

Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5

Baltimore -6.5 to -0.5

Buffalo +2.5 to +8.5

Two team teasers pay out roughly -110 to -120 odds so they are similar to a single straight up bet, but you are getting the extra 6 points one way or the other so you’re decreasing the risk. I recommend only focusing on two team teasers to limit the risk associated with needing multiple things to go right.

New York Jets +3.5 vs Atlanta

That’s right, I will be setting my alarm for an early morning sweat on the Jets in the London game. Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and the line was bet down to 3.5 almost immediately before being bet down further to 3 by mid-week. Now that its rested at 3 I have seen some books bump back up to the 3.5 and I think that is the key number to take if you’re riding with me on the Jets here. This is an ugly game with two bad teams and while the bets are virtually split the Jets are taking in a massive 78% of the money, which signals sharp action. Jets are also a short dog with a line move in their favor, a system that hits at 62% over the last two seasons.

New York Giants +7 at Dallas

Oh man this one is tough to swallow, but its simply too high a number given the situation. First of all, this is a divisional matchup and I am strong believer that division dogs are the best dogs to take. I will repeat this a lot, but teams are built to win their divisions which means they are built to play best against teams in their division. Beyond that they have familiarity because they play each other every season, twice a season. Danny Dimes is also an ATS machine when he’s on the road going 11-4 ATS (73%) for his career. That improves to 10-2 ATS (82%) as a road dog. As of right now this number has been locked at 7, which is a line move in favor of the Giant in spite of only having 22% of the bets. That being said I am going to hold off on locking this in right now until I can see if I can get a 7.5. If it never moves back I will be jumping on it officially at 7 on game day or before it moves lower.

Buffalo +3 at Kansas City

Aside from just being an incredible treat and matchup, this game is strength vs strength. Mahomes is playing out of his mind, even by his standards, with 14 TD passes already on this young season. Behind that phenomenal play the Chiefs have the top DVOA offense in the league. In comes Buffalo, and immediately people are going to be excited about Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, however the Buffalo defense going against the top offensive weapon in the league should be the most polarizing aspect of this game. Buffalo’s defense is #1 in DVOA and it isn’t even close. When you break down the analytics Buffalo has a historic defense though the first 4 weeks. They stop the run (2nd best in the league) and they are the best at defending the pass. Like I said this is strength vs strength and outside of betting I am genuinely excited to watch this game on Sunday night. From a betting perspective this is a Bills play all the way. They are short road dog, 19-6 ATS, a prime-time dog, 7-5 ATS, and Josh Allen is 14-6-2 (70%) as a dog. It gets slightly better with Josh Allen going 11-4-1 (73%) in games with a line of 3 or less. Buffalo has the fire power against a weaker defense to get the lead early, and they have the defense to hold onto it. I am taking the points and putting a little on the money line.