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Normally, being just a week away from the last week of the season, playoff positions are solidified and we need to take into account that teams may be benching star players.

Not this year though! While some teams have clinched a berth, it seems that every playoff seed is still up for grabs and this is just another week!

Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – SAN FRANCISCO over Houston – Playing the Texans defense should take Trey Lance back to is Division 1-AA comfort zone.

15 – NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville – This was the AFC Championship game just a couple years ago…just think about that for a sec.

14 – Tampa Bay over NEW YORK JETS – There’s nothing to say about this one, you know what it will be.

13 – BUFFALO over Atlanta – A home game against the Falcons is a nice reward for the Bills after a solid win last week.

12 – INDIANAPOLIS over Las Vegas – The Raiders would have a chance in this one if it were played in the first half of the season.

11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – An AFC West divisional matchup isn’t really that exciting now the Chiefs have gone back to to their division dominating ways.

10 – GREEN BAY over Minnesota – Kirk Cousins was steadfast in his opinion to stay unvaccinated…and now it’s going to cost his team.

9 – DALLAS over Arizona – Injuries haven’t helped, but it almost seems that the Cardinals just aren’t ready to be legit contenders.

8 – Los Angeles Rams over BALTIMORE – This is just going to be a “what if” season for Baltimore.

7 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – In what will probably be Big Ben’s last home game in Pittsburgh, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BEN ROETHLISBERGER WILL THROW FOR OVER 400 YARDS.

6 – CHICAGO over New York Giants – The Giants only viable option is Saquon Barkley and it seems like coming back to the scene of his torn ACL is on his mind too much.

5 – TENNESSEE over Miami – Yes, the Dolphins have won seven straight, but I can’t see them making it to eight straight.

4 – CINCINNATI over Kansas City – Call it a hunch but I can see the Bengals pulling this one out and gaining momentum for what could be a late January rematch.

3 – SEATTLE over Detroit – There is a reason this game is quietly tucked away in the farthest corner of the league.

2 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Do yourself a favor – instead of watching this one, honor John Madden by watch an early 90’s Eagles/’Skins game with Madden on the call.

1 – Carolina over NEW ORLEANS – Looking at this Saints offense, I don’t think “enjoying retirement” is the only reason Drew Brees won’t come back.

Extra football! We get extra football!!

Unfortunately, the extra week will include a decent amount of games where we will see starters for a quarter or two. Obviously this will add a degree of difficulty for us as we make our picks – the Packers are obviously far superior to the Lions…but are their backups?

Before we get into it, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!

Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over New  York Jets –  The Bills get lucky with a home game against the Jets when the division is on the line.

15 – TAMPA BAY over Carolina – >>Insert obligatory Antonio Brown comment here (though the less said about him the better)

14 – ARIZONA over Seattle – Think it’s safe to say this is an end of an era game for the Seahawks – welcome to rebuilding. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that BOTH RUSSELL WILSON AND PETE CARROLL WILL BE OUT OF SEATTLE THIS OFF-SEASON.

13 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – The 9ers have been playing pretty solid lately, unfortunately for them the Rams are playing for the division title.

12 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – Not only do the Colts get an easy path to clinch a playoff spot, they also get to leave the cold temps in Indy and head to Florida to do so!

11 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Just one more game, Bears fans…just one more game.

10 – New England over Miami – After such a long winning streak, its odd to think that the Dolphins are far away from contending…but that’s what it seems like.

9 – Kansas City over DENVER – The Broncos have been getting a lot of “just wait ‘til next year” talk…I don’t see it.

8 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Yes there is a glimmer of playoff hope for the Steelers, but I think they left everything on the field last week.

7 – Tennessee over HOUSTON – This one may be one of those games we talked about depending on who Tennessee plays, but I still just cant see a Texans win.

6 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – David Banner mentioned watching the Falcons play the Saints in one of his songs…that’s about as excited as I can get on this one.

5 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – Just seems like another last week of the season game the Cowboys blow in Philly.

4 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – Really think the Bengals could play 22 backups and could beat the Browns right now.

3 – Los Angeles Chargers over LAS VEGAS – Yes, there is a part of me that is picking the Chargers thinking that it will help the Raiders win…seems to be how my Raider picks have been going lately.

2 – NEW  YORK GIANTS over Washington – Normally, picking the Giants to win is a solid choice for the one-point line…except when…

1 – DETROIT over Green Bay – …you think the Lions will beat the Packers. Green Bay has already locked up home-field in the playoffs, so the Lions get to play backups.

The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.