Peterman completed 6-of-14 passes for 66 yards with five interceptions. Wow, Buffalo. Nice work. In this episode, we'll be touching on the Bills' and NFL fantasy players going forward as well as the other highs and lows of Week 11 and what they mean to your fantasy squad.
Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line Ep13: Not So Good, Nathan!
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Another year another prayer to strike it rich in the NFL survivor pool. While not all possible entries can be accounted for yet, it looks like this years pool will have at least 900 entries. Multiply that by the $22 entry fee and you have a top prize of $19,800! I've decided this year to “Diversify my bonds” as the Wu-Tang financial analysts would say, and bought two entries. Each week I will give you my two picks with a short explanation.
And of course, it will be two picks the entire season because I will not get one wrong.
Let me start off with my lock pick that I would choose if only given one option. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 9 point favorites on the road against Deshone Kizer and the Cleveland Browns. A rookie quarterback on a 1-15 team playing a Super Bowl contender in the Steelers spells an easy victory. I was honestly surprised that Cleveland would throw Kizer to the wolves week 1, I'd have let Kessler absorb some punishment early so the kid could survive a season. But maybe Cleveland wants to test him early so they can draft Darnold next year when they go 1-15 again.
The Buffalo Bills are my second pick. Not hard to figure out my early season strategy, pick the two biggest favorites of the week and relax. While I actually respect Josh McCown as a professional quarterback, I just think the rest of the team is so devoid of talent that they don't stand a chance. There is also a bonus upside in this pick allowing me to use my Bills pick early. After a few white flag looking trades in the off-season, it appeared they might be in rebuild mode and likely will finish below 500.
This might be a common theme this year picking against the Browns and Jets, until I have reason to expect otherwise.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
36 Fantasy Points, Week 10's Leader
This year's fantasy football juggernaut is perhaps as unexpected as anything in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky (yes, he gets to be called by his full name) tops the Week 10 leader board with 36 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that future HoF'er Nick Mullens keeps his total under 36 tonight. This is the second time this season that Trubisky is the highest points scorer in a week. He also achieved this back in week 4, when he set the high water mark for any player this season at 43.46 points. Trubisky is the only QB to lead the league in points in a given week twice this season. The QB group that led the league just once is Patrick Mahomes (Wk 7), Drew Brees (Wk 3), Ben Roethlisberger (Wk 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Wk 1). That's pretty impressive company to beat, considering that a Bears quarterback and high fantasy ceiling have never been discussed together, ever. The only other player to lead the league in two different weeks in fantasy is James Conner, who did so in weeks 5 and 8.
249 Passing Yards
With just 249 passing yards on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes came one game short of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive 300-yard passing games. Mahomes' streak ended at 8 games, but don't worry, he's still the league leader for passing yards and touchdowns and has a 9.0 touchdown percentage. His numbers were down this week against the Cardinals, but it didn't take a lot to beat them. His best stat from this game is that he did not throw an interception, which he had done in each of the last 5 weeks. Mahomes is still on track to throw over 5000 yards and could still get to 50 touchdowns at his current pace. This is perhaps the most impressive resume for MVP in a season with a few really top notch contenders. Mahomes will have a chance to separate himself if the Chiefs can beat the Rams this Monday in Mexico City - apparently the only good MNF matchup that we're allowed to have this season. I wonder how the crowd will react to the monstrosity that is the Booger-mobile. This is the last streak I was tracking in 2018, so let me know if there's something else out there I should be watching for.
501 Yards on Offense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers accumulated a whopping 501 offensive yards against the Redskins on Sunday - a team that normally gives up just 324 yards per game. Given those stats, one would assume that Fitzmagic is back in full force - Ryan Fitzpatrick did have over 400 passing yards for the fourth time this year. Of course, we don't bring up stats like this because things went according to plan. The Bucs managed just 3 points, helped along the way by 4 turnovers (three of them to end long drives) and two missed field goals. Give credit, I guess, to the Washington Redskins, who are now 6-3 and are probably going to be hosting a playoff game. I don't even need to guess - just look at the remaining schedule for the Redskins, which features just two teams that have winning records. A final, weird note about the Redskins is that this team has not experienced a single lead change this year. They have either led all game or trailed after the first score, showing that this team is literally devoid of excitement.
21 TD in 6 Games
I'm willing to bet you haven't heard much about Andrew Luck's health since he attempted 121 passes in just 5 days back at the end of in weeks 4 and 5. There's a good reason, and it's that everything finally seems OK with @CaptAndrewLuck (that twitter feed is a must-follow). Andrew Luck has at least 3 TDs in the last 6 games and 21 total over that period of time. He's the 5th best QB over the last 4 weeks in fantasy and has the Colts on a 3-game winning streak. The Colts are just 4-5, but they have a good ground game, haven't given up a sack in the last 4 games and Luck is on track to throw for the most TDs in his career - all of them apparently going to tight ends. Also, nice game, Eric Ebron and your three TDs. Not a nice game, all of us who switched over to Jack Doyle once he returned from injury. The Colts could sneak into the AFC wildcard picture, or even the division picture, with two games against the Titans left to go.
50% More Offensive Touchdowns
The Bills can use this tag line when advertising their team for the rest of the season. They went into Sunday with just 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, and increased that total by 50% with an additional 4 against the Jets. Heck, they even added a bonus defensive TD to make it a lucky 13 on the season. This was just the second game this season that the Bills did not have a turnover - the other was their Week 3 shellacking of the Vikings. The Bills also put up 451 yards of offense - their previous high water mark was just 333 - a 35% improvement! The new and improved Matt Barkley led Buffalo Bills (please, please do not give us any more Nathan Peterman) will have a bye this week before playing the Jags in week 12 and oh who cares, it's the Bills and they still stink. This is more of an indictment on the Jets, who have multiple turnovers in 8 of 10 games this year and somehow managed to lose the two games where they did not turn the ball over.
What’s changed since last year? With superstar TE Rob Gronkowski retired (for now, anyway) along with the departure of former Colts TE Dwayne Allen, the Patriots needed depth at the Tight End position and signed former Bronco Matt LaCosse, and the aging Ben Watson (who played with the Pats / Brady from 2004-2009). While not much has changed with the RBs besides adding third-round rookie Damien Harris to push Sony Michel, the Pats are throwing WRs against the wall this year to see what sticks. New additions include N’Keal Harry (rookie), Jakobi Meyers (UDFA), former Redskin Maurice Harris, and former Bear/Saint Cameron Meredith.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? Beat reporters have continued to espouse praise on UDFA Jakobi Meyers, but it’s too early to put a stamp on him as anything other than camp hype. The most likely breakout WR on the team currently is a toss-up between Phillip Dorsett (5th year) or Maurice Harris (4th year). Dorsett plays more outside snaps than Harris, but Harris has drawn the attention of coaches as of late due to his big body (6’3”, 205 lbs). I think it’s likely that Dorsett has the edge currently due to his speed and draft pedigree (4.33 40-time, 2015 1st rounder).
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Again, I like Phillip Dorsett here, he is currently not being drafted in fantasy leagues with an aggregate ADP of 300 (WR100), but if you follow the money he was given a $500K bonus this offseason, which is more than Inman, Thomas, Harris, Davis, and Meyers, and with Josh Gordon out of the lineup, Dorsett was playing at a WR3/4 pace with 60% more targets than he had otherwise. Contingent on a few variables, Dorsett could be a steal in the last round of your fantasy draft.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? With the departure of Rob Gronkowski, it’s a little tougher to find the every-game studs on this offense, but that title here clearly lies between Julian Edelman (ADP 43, WR16) and Sony Michel (ADP 52, RB25). Edelman finished as a WR2 or better in 75% of his games last year and should continue to be Brady’s favorite target. Michel has been great, but there are concerns with his knee, third-round rookie Damien Harris, and the other RBs (James White, Rex Burkhead, etc) taking away work. Bottom line: Edelman will still be very attractive in PPR leagues but looking at their overall possible fantasy values for 2019 I’d go Michel by a hair.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I can see UDFA Damien Harris being drafted (currently 12th round ADP in standard leagues), but then dropped when Sony Michel dominates the short yardage and goal-line work on the field. Injuries happen often at the RB position though, and if Michel’s knee acts up or he gets injured in another way on the field, Harris should be the guy that gets the nod. Similarly, if Julian Edelman is unable to play all 16 games, Maurice Harris will be a popular one.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? N’Keal Harry was the #32 pick overall in the 2019 NFL rookie draft but is still having some mental issues in camp (not surprising in Belichick’s offense). UDFA Jakobi Meyers is enjoying a ton of hype right now but the WR corps are crowded this year and the veterans will likely retain the starting slots as we get closer to the regular season. Damien Harris was drafted early to get some work, but the only likely regular rookie starter for the Patriots this year is Harry – he was drafted to play right away.
What’s changed since last year? The Dolphins tried to be a good team over the past several years – they really did! But after little to no success, they are finally entering a rebuilding phase. Jettisoning Ryan Tannehill, Miami picked up both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen to head up the offense, and recently acquired Allen Hurns from the Cowboys. They drafted some RB depth in Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin, and picked up Dwayne Allen to help out at TE.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? Former Chief Albert Wilson (WR69) may fit the breakout WR role this year, as he was on his way to doing just that in 2018 before going down with a season-ending hip injury. In the 7 games he played last year, he recorded the best YAC per reception (13.3) of any WR with at least 35 targets. The 2nd best was 7.9, which shows just how elusive and high-level he was playing at. He’s also #1 over the last 2 seasons for forced missed tackle per reception rate out of any receivers with a minimum of 25 receptions. He was trending toward a stat line of 50+ receptions for 800+ yards and 8+ TDs before going down.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Jakeem Grant (WR138) is a name to remember as a sleeper, he’s a 4th year WR for the Dolphins that started as primarily a KR/PR specialist with breakaway speed, but they asked him to learn to be an outside receiver in 2017. He suffered an Achilles injury which ended his 2018 season, but not before becoming the 2nd person (after Andre Roberts) in NFL history to catch a TD pass and return both a kick and a punt for TDs.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Dolphins offense does not contain any studs (which I would qualify as an approximately top-20 player at their respective position), but the closest would likely be Kenyan Drake (RB26), who scored 9 TDs last year and excels as a pass-catching RB. The issue there is the possibility of Kalen Ballage (RB45) cutting into his workload, and the uncertainty of a new coaching staff’s choices with their playmakers.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Kenny Stills (WR62) could be a monster if we get a lot of deep balls in games coming from behind this year. His ADP has him being drafted in the 19th round, which means that quite a few leagues will still have him on the waiver wire. Here is a guy who has demonstrated solid WR2/3 seasons in the past and he could have one again. Fitzmagic, anyone?
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Both Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin were drafted for RB depth and shouldn’t provide real fantasy value this season – but watch out for UDFA Preston Williams, a 6’4”, 211 lb. receiver who has already been impressing this preseason. Note: he was forced out of his college career at Tennessee due to a domestic violence arrest.
What’s changed since last year? The Bills need to continue building around 2nd year QB Josh Allen, and they did that in the offseason by signing WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley, TE Tyler Kroft, and RBs Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon. They also drafted third-round rookie RB Devin Singletary, to add some youth to the RB room.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? A true 3rd year breakout candidate, Zay Jones (ADP200, WR66) was picked by the Bills in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft, and has steadily improved his production since then. More than doubling his output from his rookie year, 2018 (and new QB Josh Allen) saw Jones’ stats rise to 56 receptions for 652 yards and 7 TDs. Adding John Brown should help take some pressure off of Jones and allow for him to emerge as the #1 WR for an up and coming Bills team and a WR 2/3 in fantasy.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? This really shouldn’t be the case, as John Brown (ADP 167, WR59) has had terrific seasons in the past with the Cardinals, and more than a few good games with the Ravens (before Lamar Jackson took over for Flacco and passing went out the window), but Brown can and should excel as a deep threat on the Bills with QB Josh Allen. His current ADP leaves him as undrafted in some leagues, but he has plenty of spark left, especially with Allen’s deep ball being one of the best in the league.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? No studs to find here just yet, the highest drafted player in standard leagues on the Bills is LeSean McCoy (ADP 101, RB40). Younger talent is developing but needs more time to marinate!
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Look no further than the Bills’ RBs: LeSean McCoy had only 3.2 YPC last year, and Frank Gore just turned 36. Happy Birthday, Frank.. time to consider retirement, maybe? Third-round pick Devin Singletary (ADP 142, RB53) crushed it in College last year (FAU, 33 TDs, over 2000 yards from scrimmage), and he has the goods to push for the starting job in Buffalo. He was clearly drafted to take over the reins. There is certainly a scenario where the aging McCoy and Gore keep the job, but I think Singletary has a good chance to finish the season as the starting Bills RB.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Already mentioned was Devin Singletary, and fellow rookie Dawson Knox could provide some value at TE, but is not a recommendation for anything but dynasty leagues at this point.
What’s changed since last year? Well.. let’s start with Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder as the most impactful offseason adds – the Jets also brought in Ty Montgomery and Ryan Griffin for offensive depth (and in Giffin’s case, at least some games as the starter while Chris Herndon is suspended for 4 games).
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? He’s had some good years already, but in 2019, 4th year WR Robby Anderson (ADP 74, WR29) may be primed to be a top 10-15 receiver in the league. Robby is not a smart man based on his constant brush-ins with the law, but he is one of the best downfield receivers out there. In fact, he was the #2 WR in the entire league over weeks 14-16, only behind DeAndre Hopkins. Over that span, he put up an average of 20+ fantasy points per game. Adding in Le’Veon Bell as an additional threat should only give Anderson more opportunities to get open in this offense.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Take a look at Jamison Crowder (ADP 213, WR71). Crowder has showcased his talents in the slot while on the Redskins (averaged 100+ targets and 66+ receptions over the 2016 and 2017 seasons), and now steps into the Jarvis Landry role with Adam Gase as the new head coach of the Jets. If he can avoid major injuries, Crowder will find a lot of success in this surging Jets’ offense pairing up with Sam Darnold. In 2017, Crowder was the WR41 in standard and WR33 in PPR leagues. He is a great speculative pickup in the late rounds of this year’s draft for a WR4/5.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? No question here, Le’Veon Bell (ADP 7, RB6) will dominate touches in the backfield – the Jets are paying him to do so, and he still has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Chris Herndon (ADP 201, TE23) is suspended for 4 games to start the season because of his DUI arrest last June. Because of this, he likely won’t be drafted in most fantasy leagues without deep rosters, but he is definitely someone to look at acquiring in late rounds or before his suspension ends. In 2018, Herndon finished at the TE15 in standard leagues as a rookie and he played several games in TE1 territory.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Jets drafted Trevon Wesco as TE depth, but he will not likely have any fantasy relevance. Quinnen Williams was the #3 overall pick but won’t be much help to the offense as a Defensive Lineman!