Welcome back to the Rookie Report. Another exciting week of NFL action is in the books, and it was comeback city. The Bills, Browns, Giants and Panthers all put up comeback victories and the Rams and Bucs nearly did the same. Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham Jr. were all big parts of their teams’ wins, and several other rookies made big contributions in week 5 as well. Will week 6 be more of the same?
Let’s talk about what to expect this weekend…
Rookies to Start:
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 6: @Oak.): Oliver exploded on to the scene last week with over 160 total yards and a TD against the number one run defense in the league. The Raiders are not close to number one. In fact, they allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Oliver is a top-15 RB play this week and a must-start.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Giants have been committed to the run game since they started turning their season around, and with Rashad Jennings likely out this week, Williams will assume the lead back role in a matchup against a less than daunting Eagles’ defense. The BC product should be a low level RB2 this week. I’d prefer Oliver to Williams this week, but both have solid upside.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Kelvin is going to be heavily involved as usual, and is pretty much a must-start every week because of his role in the offense. With that said, the Bengals’ defense is tough and should be eager to wash away the memory of last week’s game against New England. Kelvin is still a high ceiling option, but he’s got a lower floor this week than usual.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): The Titans aren’t as good a matchup as you’d think for Bortles, but it’s a better matchup than Pittsburgh, especially if the Jags’ run game is more effective this week. I see Bortles as a mid-range QB2 in 12 team leagues.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Bengals’ entire team should rebound this week, and they should lean even more heavily on the run game than usual this week with A.J. Green dealing with a toe injury. The Panthers allow the 6th most points to opposing RBs at just over 20 per game, so there’s a chance for both Gio and Hill to be good this week. Hill still likely needs a TD to provide good value, but he’s a pretty decent flex option this week.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): I’m getting the impression that Ken Whisenhunt must hate Bishop Sankey. After vowing to use Bishop more this week, he still finished with just 8 carries in a game the Titans led until the final minutes. With the miserable Jags up next, Sankey has a great shot to finally break out, or he could see less than 10 touches again. Play him at your own risk.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 6: @TB): Lorenzo has a plus matchup this week with Tampa, but the Ravens have been sticking to the committee approach, and Forsett remains the top option due to his prowess in the passing game. There is still a decent role for Taliaferro, and head coach John Harbaugh said this week he wants to give Taliaferro more carries, but until he takes more of a lead role he’s just a flex option.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): If Evans plays, the matchup isn’t as tough as you might think. The Ravens have allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to opposing WRs through 5 games. Vincent Jackson is limited in practice this week with an injury of his own. Evans is capable of 80+ yards if he suits up. Glennon has given this passing offense new life.
WRs Allen Robinson & Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee might both be out this week. Robinson remains a higher floor option than Hurns and is likely to haul in at least 5 catches, but Hurns has more upside. Both players have a shot at a decent week, and are WR3/flex options.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the most WR points in the league, and Beckham should play more snaps this week after his strong outing a week ago. Despite that, Rueben Randle is seeing 10 targets a game and Larry Donnell should be more involved this week after getting shut down against Atlanta. There’s still a ton of upside, but there’s certainly risk. I think he could steal some of Victor Cruz’s work if Cruz keeps dropping passes.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 6: @Min.): Megatron will either be limited again or out altogether this week, and the Lions will need Ebron to step up in passing game. He’s still a matchup nightmare, and the tight ends gave the Vikes fits last season. I think Ebron is a good bet for a TD and could be worth a streaming play.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions allow the fewest points to opposing QBs in the league. Teddy’s been good so far, but with Megatron, Joique and Reggie Bush all battling injuries, this likely won’t be a blowout and won’t have much garbage time passing for Minny. I expect a bump in the road this week for Teddy. He’s a really low end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. SD): Don’t even think about playing Carr. The Raiders’ offense has been a total dumpster fire so far, and with Tony Sparano now in charge they are likely to run the ball more often, further limiting Carr’s upside.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrence West, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): With Ben Tate back from injury, West and Crowell are limited to change of pace work, and there isn’t enough to go around to make either of them a trustworthy flex play. I think Crowell is a guy to hold on to in case of another Tate injury, but for now you have to keep him benched.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Arian Foster is back in business for now, putting up his best game of the season in week 5 against Dallas. Until he gets hurt again, Blue won’t see enough work to be a viable flex option.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Reaves seems like the best bet to play this week out of he, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but this matchup is imposing. I wouldn’t have faith in a big game out of Reaves. The Panthers just haven’t committed to the run so far.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions run D has been stout all year, allowing less than 3 yards a carry, and McKinnon is still playing second fiddle to Matt Asiata. He’s too much of a risk to trust this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 6: @StL.): Frank Gore’s resurgence over the past couple weeks is really hampering Hyde’s upside. His role should increase later in the season when the team tries to keep Gore fresh headed into the postseason. For now, his change of pace role makes him too much of a risk to trust. Believe it or not, the Rams are in the top 10 in the league at limiting opposing RB points.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Okay, benching Watkins after his 2nd best yardage game of the season probably sounds crazy. I don’t think it is. While it’s true that Orton at QB helps Sammy’s numbers, he draws Darrelle Revis this week, and the Pats defense allows the 3rd fewest WR points in the NFL. There’s very serious bust potential for Watkins this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): It might bite you in the ass to sit Matthews this week if he finds the end zone, but the Eagles continue to target Riley Cooper more than they should. Add in the solid defense the G-Men have been playing against the pass, and I just don’t want to rely on Matthews in anything but the deepest PPR leagues.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): The Redskins’ defense isn’t particularly good, but since Palmer went down, Brown hasn’t been much of a factor. He shouldn’t be a consideration unless Palmer is back under center, and even then only as a roll of the dice flex option.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): With Mike Evans possibly back this week, ASJ loses a lot of the appeal he had last week. He only caught one pass for 11 yards last week. The Ravens allow less than 5 points a game to tight ends. I doubt ASJ gets to 5 this week.
Rookies on Bye: WR Brandin Cooks, NO
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Jake Locker’s injury situation bears watching this week. There has been talk in the media this week that the Titans may turn to Mettenberger soon, and it could even be this week if Locker isn’t able to play. Mett led the NFL in passing yards in the preseason, and would face a soft Jaguars’ defense in his first start. He’d be at least a low end QB2 if he gets the nod.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Johnson was impressive in his first NFL action, rattling off a Jags’ season best 20-yard run against Pittsburgh. Head coach Gus Bradley said this week that the running back position will be an open competition going forward, and they’d ideally like a 2-man rotation. Bradley openly praised Johnson this week, and he could have first crack at being part of the backfield tandem. He’s a roll of the dice flex play in deeper leagues that could pay off big this week. He should be comfortable playing with his college QB Blake Bortles.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Thompson shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup this week against the Jets’ stout run D, but with Montee Ball out for multiple weeks the backfield workload bears watching. CJ Anderson was inactive last week and Ronnie Hillman is still just a change of pace guy. Anderson is expected to get the bulk of the carries, but keep an eye on the situation.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 6: @Mia.): I have a gut feeling that this is the week Davante finds the end zone. He’s playing a ton of snaps as the WR3 in Green Bay, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds a big game. I like his chances this week with Brent Grimes covering either Jordy or Randall Cobb.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): The Jets are desperately in need of playmakers right now, and Amaro has the talent to be just that. It’s only a matter of time before they fully unleash him. The Jets should be playing from behind all day this week, so they should be throwing a bunch. I like Amaro in 2-TE leagues.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully you find something useful in there for your fantasy teams and are able to pick up a W in week 6. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 was a fantastic one for countless rookie WRs: Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, John Brown, Martavis Bryant, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin. Do I need to go on? This crop is quickly making a name for itself as one of the best rookie WR classes of all-time. Will it continue? I think it will. Week 9 will be a rough one for many teams with a whopping 6 teams on byes this week. With that in mind, there will be a few more names listed as borderline this week, so make sure to read a little deeper on those guys and see if they are a fit for your lineup this week. Every league is different, so I have to trust that you know your team better than I do. If I say a guy is a borderline starter at WR, and you have 3 top-10 WRs and him, don’t play him. Alright, let’s dive into week 9’s rookie matchups….
Rookies to Start:
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): The ‘Skins D is a tough matchup on paper, but it’s mainly because they’ve been keeping RBs out of the end zone, giving up just 2 TDs all year to them. McKinnon is still a good bet to pile up yards. DeMarco Murray did dismantle Washington a week ago, and some of his holes to run through were massive. McKinnon did put up a huge day against the very stout Bills’ run defense a couple weeks ago too. He’s still a safe RB2.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 9: @Mia.): Oliver will get at least one more week as the Chargers’ feature back with reports that Ryan Mathews won’t return until after their week 10 bye. Oliver wasn’t great last week, but he did manage 63 yards in his worst start of the year. The matchup with the ‘Phins isn’t an easy one, but it should be easier than last week’s. The Broncos were ready for a run-focused attack, and they shut it down. Expect a bounce-back and a solid start from Oliver this week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Don’t be worried about the matchup with Saints’ corner Keenan Lewis after Lewis shut down Jordy Nelson last week. KB is a locked-in every week starter, and he just tallied nearly 100 yards against Richard Sherman last week. Expect another strong day.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 9: @Car.): On the other side of the Thursday night game, Brandin Cooks should be a safe option as well. The Saints finally started getting him the ball further downfield and it paid off big time. With the short week, there isn’t always time to install a whole new game plan, so Cooks should see similar work this week. The Panthers’ D is very burnable. Fire up Cooks as a WR3.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): With Cruz sidelined for the season, Beckham played on every offensive snap for the G-Men in week 7, and they used him all over the field. I’d expect that usage to continue, and production should continue to follow. You know the Colts can score, so the Giants should certainly be throwing enough to set up a very productive game for Odell. He has 3 TDs in 3 career games thus far.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Bryant has broken out in a big way over the past 2 weeks, and he’s done it as a part-time player. The part-time thing is about to change. Bryant is exactly the kind of player the Steelers need opposite Antonio Brown to keep defenses honest. He’s a big, fast, dynamic downfield receiver, and he’s really hard to cover in the red zone. I expect the Steelers to continue to get him involved, and the matchup this week is a good one. The Ravens have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, and they just lost their top CB Jimmy Smith for the year last week. I love Bryant as a WR3 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Teddy has a primo matchup this week, but he’s still only a starting option in 2 QB leagues. He does make a solid QB 2 option this week though. Washington has allowed a 17:3 TD-INT ration so far and the 2nd most QB fantasy points per game. With that said, Teddy failed to capitalize on a plus matchup with the Bucs last week, and the Washington D looked rejuvenated against Dallas on Monday night. There’s serious upside here, but also some risk. 225 yards and 2 TDs would be a positive day.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): There’s a chance that Hill moves to must-start status if Gio Bernard is unable to go this week (he missed practice Wed. with a hip injury), but I’m assuming Bernard will play. The Jaguars have been better of late, but this still has serious blowout potential. Even if Bernard starts, I like the chances that Hill sees more work than usual. He’s a solid bet for a TD, and that makes him a real flex option.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): The Colts defense is not stellar against fantasy RBs, but they give up a lot of that damage in the passing game, where Williams is a non-factor. It looks like Rashad Jennings is likely to sit again, so there should be a healthy number of carries. I’d look for him to be in the neighborhood of 60-70 yards, but he’ll need to find the end zone to make you happy. He’s just a flex option.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Crowell is a dicey flex play this week, but one with plenty of upside. Head coach Mike Pettine said that the plan is to get Crowell more touches going forward, but also said he has trouble trusting him in tight games due to ball security issues. If the game stays close, it could be all Ben Tate in this one. If Cleveland is able to get out in front, Crowell could see extensive work. If he gets 10+ carries, I’d expect him to shine. I think he should approach that number.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Taliaferro has vanquished Bernard Pierce for the number 2 RB spot in Baltimore, and that has value since he’ll get goal line work. He should be a legitimate threat for a TD this week against a mediocre Pittsburgh run defense, but he could be light on yards with Forsett around. There is a slight chance that Forsett isn’t able to play this week, and if that happens, Taliaferro bumps up to being a solid starting option.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Evans has been remarkably consistent for a rookie. He’s caught exactly 4 passes in each of the last 5 games (he caught 5 in week 1), and he’s topped 50 yards in each of the last 4 games. He should put up similar numbers again this week. Having V-Jax around certainly limits his ceiling a bit.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Robinson gets listed as borderline because he faces the best defense in the league at limiting WR fantasy points, but the arrow is pointing way up for Robinson. He’s led the Jags’ WRs in snaps for each of the last 3 weeks and he has 4+ receptions in every game since week 2, 60+ yards in 5 of the last 7 games, and a TD in each of the last 2. He’s certainly worthy of WR3/flex consideration despite the matchup.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 9: @NYG): If you haven’t heard of Moncrief yet, you’re not paying attention. He’s a freak athlete who is quickly climbing past Hakeem Nicks on the Colts’ depth chart, and should start opposite T.Y. Hilton in Indy for a long time (after Reggie Wayne leaves). With Wayne out last week, Moncrief had a line of 7-112-1 on just 40 snaps. If Wayne sits again this week, Moncrief should be in your lineup. If Reggie plays, view him as more of a volatile WR3 option.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Brown surprised in a big way in week 8 at the expense of teammate Michael Floyd, but a repeat is unlikely this week. Brown is still a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week, but I’d expect the Cards to try to do more to get the ball to Michael Floyd this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. SD): The matchup isn’t great this week and Landry had a weak game against Jacksonville, but I expect this game to stay competitive a bit longer than last week’s affair. As a result, Landry should have a better performance than last week, but it would be tough to bank on much more than 5 grabs and 50 yards.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Matthews continues to see a healthy number of targets and catches, but it isn’t equating to big yards or TDs. He has 4+ catches in each of his last 5 games, but needs to start seeing more downfield targets. Maclin dominates this passing game too much to rely on Jordan. The matchup is a good one this week with the Texans allowing 24.6 WR points per game, so you could do worse that Matthews at WR3 in PPR leagues, but he’s a low-end option.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 9: @KC): Jace has a higher floor most weeks than the other rookie TEs simply because he is more heavily targeted. He has 26 catches over his past 5 games, and Mike Vick has a history of leaning on his tight ends. I would expect Amaro’s numbers to see a slight uptick with Vick in there. He should be a reasonable streaming TE option.
TE Crockett Gillmore, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): With a weak TE pool this year made weaker by 6 bye weeks, Gillmore has some streamer appeal with a decent matchup. Pittsburgh allows 9 points per game to opposing TEs, and Gillmore should see just about all of the TE targets. He needs a TD to be productive, but he could get one.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): The Bengals have allowed a 9:8 TD-INT ratio so far this season, and Bortles has been hemorrhaging turnovers so far this year. The team has set a goal of less than 8 picks over the final 8 games, and I think he starts off behind the pace he needs to hit that goal. He will likely be throwing a lot, so there is upside, but I would have a hard time starting him even in a 2QB league.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 9: @Sea.): Don’t get cute here. This is a brutal matchup. Carr is one of the worst QB plays of the week. If he were starting, I’d have rather played Colt McCoy vs. Minnesota that Carr here.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 9: @SF): Mason had a strong game in St. Louis the first time they met the 49ers, but I’d expect they’ll be more prepared for him this time around. He’ll see some work since obviously Fisher likes him in this matchup, but I would expect about 40 or 50 scoreless yards. There are better options available.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): Despite a pretty strong week 8 showing, Blue should still be firmly on the bench unless something happens to Arian Foster. He’s an important handcuff, but not much more right now.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Denard Robinson was great again last week, cementing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville. Storm will do battle with Toby Gerhart for the change of pace work and has no place in your lineup or even on your roster in standard leagues.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Hurns got a little bit more involved last week than he had been in the few weeks prior, but the Bengals allow the fewest WR fantasy points and Hurns hasn’t topped 50 yards or scored a TD in any of his last 4 games.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Jenkins has been playing plenty of snaps, and has been getting better with 5.8 and 6.6 points in his last 2 games, but the Browns’ D is better against TEs than you’d think. Jenkins is still a raw player and isn’t really reliable yet. I’d rather play Gillmore this week.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 9: @Cle.): The Bucs brass have been very high on Sims, and it looks like he should be active for the first time this week, a week that Doug Martin might not be able to play. I’d expect Tampa to ease Sims in, but he should work in a committee with Bobby Rainey this week if Martin is out. Sims will be a factor in the passing game right away. He should be owned in all leagues, and could have a surprising debut this week in a plus matchup.
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Grice is worth a stash in deeper leagues with Stepfan Taylor out with injury. Grice will see the change of pace work behind Andre Ellington and has the skills to be dangerous in the passing game. He could have big value if anything happens to Andre.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 9: vs. Oak.): Richardson hasn’t exactly made an impact on the stat sheet yet, but he did break a 47-yard kick return in last week’s win for the Seahawks, and I have a hunch he breaks a big play against a poor Raiders’ D. He’s not a guy you’re going to play, but could be a really cheap daily league option.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough bye week lineup decisions. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.