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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, the opening week of the season was full of surprises and disappointments. It was a bad week to be a star tight end (the top 6 tight ends by ADP all failed to score more than 8 PPR points), it was a bad week to be a rookie running back (only two rookie backs played 10+ snaps), it was a bad week to be Marvin Harrison Jr. (1 catch for 4 yards), but it was a good week to be a kicker attempting long field goals (kickers league-wide made 21 out of 23 attempts from 50+ yards).

It was also a good week to be Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Daniels, Jalen McMillan, or Ladd McConkey, who all found the end zone. My biggest piece of advice after week 1 is to not overreact to surprising fantasy point totals. Focus on the player’s usage rather than how many points they scored because touchdowns can be fluky. A player like Alec Pierce isn’t going to score 2 long touchdowns every week on just 3 targets, so we shouldn’t overreact to his point total. Quality volume is the name of the game, and that’s the lens I’ll be using as we get into what to expect in week 2.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 2: vs NYG): Daniels’ passing performance was less than exciting if you started any of his pass catchers in week 1, but his usage was excellent if you started the rookie QB. He racked up 88 yards on 16 carries, including 8 designed rushing attempts, and found the end zone twice on the ground. Ladies & gentlemen, that’s over 20 fantasy points before you count any passing stats. Of course, he’s not going to run for 2 TDs every week, but his rushing production is going to give him a floor that puts him in the top-12 QBs more weeks than not. He should be treated as a QB1 every week, and especially this week against a bad Giants team that ranked 27^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA a season ago.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): One week into their NFL careers, Nabers is off to the best start of the big 3 WRs in the 2024 draft class. Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t set a high bar for him to clear after combining for just 15 yards last Sunday, but Nabers cleared it with ease, finishing with 5 catches for 66 yards on 7 targets, good for PPR WR32 for the week. He ran an absurd 50 routes, 10 more routes than any of his teammates, and although Wan’Dale Robinson led the team in targets, Nabers is the clear alpha WR1 on this team. An interesting tidbit about Nabers’ debut: He ran 7 routes on plays where he went in motion pre-snap and was targeted on 6 of those plays. He had just 1 target on the other 43 routes run. I’m sure it’s something the Giants are aware of and will look to do more of in week 2. The biggest plus for Nabers this week is that he gets to face off with arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington allowed the most WR points per game and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA a year ago, and in week 1 this year they allowed the 2^nd-most WR points and ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. This is a game where Nabers’ floor could be higher than his final line from last week. He did pop up on the injury report mid-week with a knee issue, so have a backup plan ready, but if Nabers is good to go, start him with confidence.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Week 1 for Harrison could only be labeled a massive disappointment. He earned just 3 targets in his debut despite leading the team with a 95% route participation rate, and he finished with just 1 catch for 4 yards. When asked about Marv’s lack of involvement, QB Kyler Murray said he trusts in OC Drew Petzing, and that it isn’t his job to force the ball to Harrison. That tells me that Harrison probably wasn’t the first read in many of the plays that Petzing called. I’d expect that to change a bit this week. The Cardinals didn’t draft Harrison where they did to not use him. Speaking of where Marv was drafted, you didn’t draft Harrison in the 2^nd round of your fantasy drafts to sit him on the bench. I know week 1 was painful, but I’d advise rolling with him again this week against a Rams’ defense that allowed the 7^th-most WR points in week 1. I understand if you’re not willing to do that, but the targets are going to come.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Worthy made a splashy debut last Thursday, finding the end zone twice and piling up 68 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches. The resulting top-10 finish for the week was great, but the underlying usage is what we were afraid of. Worthy’s long speed is going to be valuable to the Chiefs in opening up underneath routes for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, but it probably won’t result in a ton of targets for the rookie himself, so he’ll need to keep making splash plays to help your fantasy team. I think he will keep it up for week 2 at least. The Bengals allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the NFL last season, and corner Cam Taylor-Britt may have poked the bear this week when asked about Worthy, saying “He can run straight…He can’t do much else, so that’s about it.” That’s the kind of bulletin board material that often backfires on the person providing it. I like Worthy’s chances of making Taylor-Britt eat his words this week and hitting the boom side of his boom-or-bust profile.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): We entered week 1 not really knowing what to expect from the Buffalo receiver rotation, but coming out of week 1, it looks like Keon Coleman is the WR1. Coleman led the team with a 90% route participation rate (no other WR was above 70%), and he had a team-high 5 targets that he turned into 4 catches for 51 yards. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but week 2 could see a better performance against a Miami defense that allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game last year and struggles against Josh Allen. Since the start of the 2022 season, Josh Allen has played 40 games against teams that are not the Miami Dolphins (playoffs included). In those games, he’s thrown for 300+ yards 10 times, and 350+ yards twice. In that same time frame, he’s played the Dolphins 5 times. He’s topped 300 yards against them in all 5 and put up 350+ yards in 3 of them. I don’t necessarily expect quite that many passing yards this year with a whole new WR group, but this feels like a week where the passing game could boom, and Coleman could be a big beneficiary of that. I’d treat him as an upside WR3.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 2: @ Bal.): At first glance, Bowers’ final stat line of 6-58-0 doesn’t jump off the page at you, but with so many of the top tight ends underperforming in week 1, it was good for a top-5 finish for the week, and the underlying usage was phenomenal. Bowers was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks, and he earned a team-high 7 targets against the Chargers. I mentioned last week that Bowers led Georgia in receiving every year he was there, and it looks like he’ll waste no time pushing for a similar role in the NFL. I don’t expect him to overtake Davante Adams and lead the team in targets, but he should be #2. The defensive matchup this week is a tough one. The Ravens ranked 1^st in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. They had a hard time slowing Patrick Mahomes in week 1 but should fare better against Gardner Minshew. Even in this tough matchup though, I think Bowers is a top-10 TE play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): Caleb’s debut performance did not go according to plan. He missed some throws he should make; his vaunted receiving weapons didn’t help him out very much, he finished with a pathetic 3.2 yards per attempt, and to make matters worse, he lost Rome Odunze to injury in the process. The Bears’ defense managed to bail Williams out and help the team to a win, but Caleb needs to play better. I expect improvement this week against a Houston defense that allowed the 11^th-most QB points per game last season and had the 6^th-lowest pressure rate in the league last week, but without Odunze I have a hard time viewing Caleb as more than a lower-end QB2 in this one. On the plus side, there should be passing volume with the Bears nearly a touchdown underdog.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): Until a couple of 4^th quarter drives last Sunday, Nix was having an even worse week than Caleb. As I expected, he struggled with Mike McDonald’s complex coverage disguises and threw two costly interceptions. Bo managed to put together a solid TD drive in the final minutes to make the final score look close and finish as the QB16 for the week, but he had just 3.3 fantasy points entering that final drive. There are things to like here – Bo showed that he can provide rushing production even though the Broncos aren’t calling designed runs for him (5-35-1 on the ground on 5 scrambles), and Sean Payton was willing to let him drop back and throw more than 40 times in his first game. Unfortunately, his matchup isn’t any easier this week. The Steelers dominated Kirk Cousins in week 1, generating the 8^th-highest pressure rate in the league and holding Cousins to the 5^th-lowest QB score of the week. If Nix doesn’t find the end zone with his legs again, he’ll have a hard time matching his week 1 output. I’d treat Nix as a fringe QB2 this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): Irving was the most impressive of the rookie backs last week, putting up 76 scrimmage yards on 11 touches while most other rookie backs didn’t play even 10 snaps. 8 of those 11 touches occurred in the second half while the Bucs were up by multiple scores. I wouldn’t count on that happening again this week against Detroit, where the Bucs are a touchdown underdog. Starter Rachaad White has been wildly inefficient as a runner (3.6 ypc last season, 2.1 ypc in week 1), leading to speculation that Irving may eventually steal some of his workload, but the Bucs love what White provides in the passing game. Rachaad was 2^nd on the team in the opener with 6 catches and 75 receiving yards. I don’t expect a drastic shift in rushing workload in week 2, and the Lions are a stout run defense anyway. They ranked first in run defense DVOA a year ago and allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and they limited the Rams’ backfield to the 7^th-fewest fantasy points in week 1. Don’t expect a repeat of week 1 for Bucky in this matchup. It’ll be a win if he breaks 30 scrimmage yards.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 2: @ Car.): McConkey’s usage looked pretty much how we expected it to in week 1. He was 3^rd among Chargers’ WRs in route participation rate, playing mostly in the slot, but he was their most-targeted pass catcher, putting up 5-39-1 on 7 targets. The problem for McConkey is his 5.3-yard aDOT. With that kind of usage in the short part of the field, he’s going to either need volume or a touchdown to turn in a quality fantasy day, and I’m just not convinced they’ll need to throw much to beat the Panthers. The Chargers want to run the ball as much as they can, and the Panthers are going to have a hard time giving them compelling reasons to throw it. If you trust the Panthers to keep this game competitive, McConkey is a reasonable WR3 option. If you expect a blowout, you’re praying for a touchdown if you start him.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Thomas finished his debut as a top-20 PPR WR, but I’m not counting on a repeat performance in week 2. Thomas’ fantasy day was buoyed by a touchdown catch, but my concern for the Jaguars’ pass catchers is that the team seems to be more run-heavy this year than in previous years. They ran 50 offensive plays in week 1, and 26 of them were rushing plays, including 12 for Tank Bigsby. That run-heavy approach could’ve been matchup related – the Jaguars were up by 2 scores early in the game, and running the ball limits how many possessions the explosive Dolphins’ offense gets – but it’s still a little troubling. T-Law didn’t throw fewer than 29 pass attempts in any game last season, so 21 in the opener isn’t a great sign. Thomas’ 4 targets last Sunday actually tied for the team lead. The Browns were an elite pass defense last year, so I tend to trust that they’re better than they looked in week 1 against Dallas. I’d err on the side of sitting Thomas this week in a bad matchup so we can get a better idea of whether the Jags’ low passing volume is a trend or just a week 1 fluke.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 2: @ GB): I’m not sure any single player left more fantasy points on the field in week 1 than Mitchell. The rookie pulled in just 1 catch for 2 yards on 5 targets in the opener, but he and Anthony Richardson just missed connecting on deep targets that could’ve gone for TDs not once, not twice, but thrice. It’s a great sign that Richardson likes to push the ball down the field, but it’s not a great sign that Richardson has had more success doing it when he’s throwing to Alec Pierce rather than Mitchell. Josh Downs returned to practice Wednesday, and if he’s active this week, Mitchell will likely be relegated to competing for WR3 snaps with Pierce. Given how Pierce performed in week 1, I’m not sure Mitchell would get any more than a 50/50 split, if he even gets that. Green Bay isn’t a great pass defense, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA a year ago, but they didn’t let opponents take the top off. The Packers allowed just 3 completions of 40+ yards all season. If Downs plays, I’d keep Mitchell parked on the bench. If Downs sits, Mitchell becomes a volatile WR4 option.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): McMillan pulled in just 1 of his 3 targets last week, but he made it count, securing a 32-yard touchdown to start the 4^th quarter. His other two targets both also looked like they might go for touchdowns if Jalen had managed to haul them in, so he narrowly missed out on a massive day. It was promising to see he’ll be used as a full-time receiver in this offense (he was in a route on 88% of the team passing dropbacks), but 3 targets on 30 routes and a high aDOT screams boom-or-bust. He’ll be a low-volume WR3 behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while that resulted in a nice TD catch in week one against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, it’s not guaranteed to happen again in Detroit. The Lions allowed a league-high 69 completions of 20+ yards last season, but they also went out and signed Carlton Davis and drafted Terrion Arnold to improve their starting CB spots. Cooper Kupp still had a field day against them last week, but they’re certainly better than the Commanders. McMillan is a boom-or-bust WR4 option in Detroit on Sunday.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Legette’s usage in week 1 was promising. His 59% route participation was lower than you’d like for a fantasy starter, but he led the team in catches and targets, and saw an impressive 37% share of the air yards for the week. All of that usage only led to 7.5 PPR points though, and the Chargers look like a much-improved defense in 2024 under Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. The Chargers ranked 27^th in pass defense DVOA a season ago, and ranked 8^th in week 1. Of course, that could be because they faced Gardner Minshew, but I’m not sure Bryce Young is a tougher QB to defend at this point. Legette is probably in line for similar usage this week, which makes him a WR4/5 option.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): McCaffrey was 2^nd on the Commanders behind Terry McLaurin in week 1 with a 71% route participation rate, but his upside is capped by Jayden Daniels’ unwillingness to push the ball down the field (could be a scheme issue rather than QB issue), and his penchant for scrambling. Daniels dropped back 34 times in week 1, and attempted just 24 passes, and the 3 passes that went in McCaffrey’s direction totaled negative-2 air yards. He finished with 3 catches for 18 yards on those targets. McCaffrey gets a favorable matchup this week against a Giants’ defense that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game last year, but the Washington passing game is a work in progress, and I don’t expect a breakout game for the rookie this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Tracy was one of just two rookie running backs to play 10+ snaps in week 1, but his 14 snaps amounted to just 3 touches and 7 yards. The Giants get a much better matchup this week against a bad Commanders’ defense, but I wouldn’t have enough trust in Tracy to plug him into lineups.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): There was a lot of excitement about Davis potentially playing the ‘Latavius Murray role’ in the offense behind James Cook, where he would see goal line opportunities in addition to change-of-pace work. Instead, he played just 6 snaps and served as the 3^rd-string running back behind both Cook and Ty Johnson, and the only Bill to handle a rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line was Cook. Davis still has some work to do before you can plug him into the lineup.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Like Ray Davis above, Benson opened the season one spot lower on the depth chart than we were hoping for, handling RB3 duties behind workhorse James Conner and Emari Demercado. Demercado played more in passing situations, while Benson spelled Conner on early downs. Even if he had all the backup work behind Conner, he likely still wouldn’t be getting enough work to be a viable fantasy starter. Demercado and Benson combined for just 6 touches in week 1.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Steele’s role in week 1 played out pretty much as I expected it to. He was merely an early down change of pace back when Isiah Pacheco needed a breather. The rookie played just 4 snaps and handled 2 rushing attempts while Samaje Perine played 8 snaps in passing situations. A couple carries isn’t enough for fantasy relevance, even against a mediocre Bengals run defense (they ranked 28^th in run defense DVOA a season ago).

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 2: @ Min.): Guerendo served as the RB2 for the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive on Monday night, but it’s not a role that makes him fantasy relevant, even if CMC misses another game or two. Jordan Mason was fantastic as the fill-in RB1 last week, piling up 147 yards and a TD, and his change-of-pace back was Deebo Samuel. Whenever CMC is out, the 49ers lean more heavily on Deebo out of the backfield. Samuel carried the ball 8 times on Monday night while Guerendo was limited to just 3 snaps.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): Corum’s time will come. He’ll eventually work his way into the RB2 role behind Kyren Williams, but for now he’s running behind Ronnie Rivers as well. Corum didn’t play a single snap in week 1 and will be limited to kick return duties for the time being. Don’t get impatient if you drafted Corum but know that he probably won’t play a very meaningful role in these first few weeks.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Allen logged 8 snaps in week 1, but many of those came late in the game after the Jets had fallen behind and pulled Aaron Rodgers from the game. This backfield wholly belongs to Breece Hall, and Allen is just hoping for scraps. The Titans are a tough matchup for running backs even when they do get opportunities. I don’t expect Allen to get many of them.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Lloyd was inactive in week 1 with a hamstring injury, and there’s a good chance that even if he’s good to play this week, he may serve as the RB3 behind Josh Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson. This Colts’ defense got dismantled by Joe Mixon in week 1, and Jordan Love is out with injury, so the Packers will likely lean on the ground game. If all 3 Packer backs are active, I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Lloyd. Josh Jacobs did pop up with an injury as well this week, but it doesn’t sound serious. I’d expect him to be in line for his usual workload.

RBs Audric Estime & Blake Watson, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): I was going to talk about Estime playing just 3 snaps in the opener, but if you missed the news, he was placed on IR on Wednesday and will miss at least the next 4 games. That means Blake Watson will step up into the RB3 role going forward, but I don’t expect him to find substantial playing time. Jaleel McLaughlin was terribly inefficient in week 1, tallying just 28 total yards on 15 touches, but he was hardly the only inefficient Bronco in the opener. I wouldn’t expect a drastic change in playing time in the backfield for week 2. Watson could be worth a stash in deep PPR leagues though in case that inefficiency continues.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Polk didn’t start in week 1, but he played essentially a starter’s share of the snaps. He was in a route on 62% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but that led to just 1 target that he caught for 6 yards. The New England passing offense is going to be conservative as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, and the Seahawks’ defense looked stellar in week 1 – they ranked 2^nd in pass defense DVOA for the week. I wouldn’t count on Polk breaking through this week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 2: @ Den.): It’s still unclear whether Wilson will make his NFL debut this week (he’s getting in limited practices as of Wednesday), but he’d be a lackluster fantasy option even if we knew he was being inserted right into the starting lineup. With Justin Fields at QB, the Steelers attempted just 23 passes in week 1, and half of the targets went to George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Wilson would be splitting the other half with the running backs, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and the backup tight ends (we all know how Arthur Smith likes his backup tight ends). Wait until we see what Roman’s usage looks like before starting him.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): The Rams’ WR room took a big hit in week one when Puka Nacua suffered an injury that will land him on IR and sideline him for at least 4 weeks. Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the available playing time, but Whittington could see a bump as well. He technically only played 2 offensive snaps in the opener, but he did have a goal-line TD run get called back due to penalty. One goal-line rushing attempt isn’t enough reason to start him this week, but you could see his role grow during Puka’s absence. Whittington put up gaudy numbers during the preseason when the 1^st and 2^nd stringers were sitting and impressed the coaches.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): If you missed the news, Odunze sprained his MCL last weekend and is considered week-to-week. He’s almost certain to miss this week’s tilt with the Texans.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Corley didn’t run a single route in week 1, and there’s not much reason to expect a drastic change in week 2. If anything, the competition for playing time will get tougher after a strong opener by Allen Lazard and with Mike Williams getting healthier. There’s no reason to fire up Corley.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 2: @ KC): The Bengals were without Tee Higgins in week 1 and Burton still didn’t come close to cracking the WR rotation. He played behind all of Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, and Charlie Jones, and ran just 1 route in week 1. Tee Higgins looks to be on the wrong side of questionable again this week, but Burton likely isn’t going to pick up much playing time as a result.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Sanders was on the field a lot in week 1, running a route on 69% of the Panthers’ passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just once, and he was 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on that target. Even though he’s playing starter’s snaps, this is a broken passing game where he’s an afterthought in the target pecking order for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If Sinnott is going to play a major role in the Commanders offense this season, it’s going to happen later in the season than we’d like. He played behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates in week 1, running just 3 target-less routes. There’s upside here, especially with the Commanders’ scheme focusing on short passes for Jayden Daniels, but you’re going to have to be patient and wait for his playing time to come up.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Wright was a healthy scratch in week 1, but that almost certainly won’t be the case in week 2 with Raheem Mostert already ruled out for Thursday night’s game and De’Von Achane questionable as well. Jeff Wilson Jr. served as the RB3 in the opener, and he has more experience in this offense, but Wright’s big-play ability makes him the more enticing fantasy option. We know the Dolphins love game-breaking speed, and Wright has plenty of it. If Achane plays, look for Wright to only log a handful of touches, but there’s a chance he could break any one of them for a big play. If Achane sits, I’d expect Wilson to get the start, but would expect Mike McDaniel to be willing the ride the hot hand if Wright gets it going. If Achane sits, I’d see Wright as an upside RB3 option this week.

Update: De’Von Achane is active for Thursday night

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): The Broncos passing game was an ugly slog of short passes, but a lot of those short passes found their way to Vele, and he did a great job of hauling in the targets that came his way. The rookie had 8 targets with just a 2-yard average target depth, but he did catch all 8 passes for 39 yards and finish the week as a top-30 PPR WR. It’s clear Bo Nix and Sean Payton like Vele, and Denver’s pass-heavy approach should make him a viable PPR WR3 in a lot of weeks.  The Steelers do boast a strong pass defense, so I wouldn’t be too aggressive about getting Vele into the lineup this week, but he should probably be rostered in most 12-team PPR leagues.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Johnson’s week 1 usage was a big surprise after the Giants’ listed Daniel Bellinger as their starting tight end on their final depth chart. Johnson was in a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks while Bellinger was in a route on just 16%. Johnson is the starting tight end. This week isn’t a great matchup to plug Johnson in – the Commanders get shredded by wide receivers but allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game a year ago – but he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially 2-TE or TE premium leagues. Johnson is an impressive athlete and had an 18% air yardage share in week 1 on his 4 targets. You’d prefer he had a better QB throwing him the ball, but there are some spike weeks in Johnson’s future with his physical traits and playing time.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Spann-Ford is really only a name you need to be familiar with in the deepest of TE-premium leagues. Cowboys’ starter Jake Ferguson suffered a sprained MCL late in Dallas’ opening win against the Browns, and it was the UDFA rookie Spann-Ford that was 2^nd on the team in tight end routes run, and not 2023 2^nd-round pick Luke Schoonmaker. Both will likely factor in while Ferguson is sidelined (a sprained MCL should keep him out for a few weeks), but if I had to pick one to target, I’d rather add Schoonmaker than Spann-Ford. It's likely the rookie saw extended snaps in the opener due to the lopsided score. Schoonmaker is a better athlete, has more sure hands (PFF credited Brevyn with 9 drops in 2023 despite catching just 25 passes), and more pro experience. I’d treat Schoonmaker as a streaming TE2 option and Spann-Ford as a stash to watch this week if you need immediate TE help in deep leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first 11 weeks of the season have put you in a good position as we head into the closing stretch of the fantasy regular season, because byes are going to make two of the next three weeks pretty hairy. It starts this week, with 6 teams on byes in week 12 that include 2 of the top-5 QBs, 4 of the top-13 RBs, 4 of the top-14 WRs, and 3 of the top-12 TEs in points per game. If your teams aren’t impacted in week 12, consider yourself extremely lucky, though I’m guessing that means you’ll be impacted in week 14.

With so many byes this week, you may have to dig a little deeper to fill starting spots than usual, so you’re going to see some rookies below with more favorable recommendations than they’d normally get with a full slate of games, and quite a few more rookie deep league sleepers than usual. I’m going to harp on it a lot, but when there are this many byes, the standards of what guys you should be considering get lowered.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 11…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): After a few down weeks for Jayden Daniels, it’s now Bo Nix who is the safest weekly fantasy start among the rookie QBs. Nix has rattled off 5 top-12 finishes in his last 7 games, including weekly finishes as the QB2, QB3, QB8 and QB9 in that span. He finished as a mid-range QB2 in both games where he failed to crack the top-12, so the floor has been solid as well. This week he faces a Vegas defense that has allowed the 8^th-most QB points per game and ranks 26^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat. The Raiders have given up multiple passing scores and 23+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced, including to Bo Nix in week 5. With Joe Burrow and Josh Allen on byes this week, Nix is a top-10 QB play for me.

RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): There’s no reason to overthink this one. Tracy has a clear lead back role and is about to face a Tampa defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The switch to Tommy DeVito shouldn’t be a problem for Tracy. It could mean they lean harder on the run game, but DeVito also has shown to be more willing to throw to running backs than Daniel Jones when he’s had chances to play. Jones targeted RBs on 18.3% of his passes in 2023, and on 14.5% in 2024. For DeVito, that rate in 2023 was 23.2%. More targets against the Bucs would be a huge boost to Tracy, as Tampa allows the 3^rd-most RB receptions per game and the most RB receiving yards per game. You also don’t need to worry about Tracy ceding that receiving work to Devin Singletary. Tracy has logged route participation rates of 55% or higher in 3 of the 4 games he’s started when Singletary has been active. It’s Tracy’s backfield. With 6 teams on byes, the rookie is a solid RB2 this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): The QB changes for the Giants this week, but I don’t think it’s any worse than a lateral move for Nabers. Daniel Jones was providing arguably the worst QB play in the NFL, and Head Coach Brian Daboll has already been gushing about Tommy DeVito’s ability to make anticipation throws, telling Nabers to “get your head around, because he will throw it before you break.” Nabers has been a WR3 or better in every single game he’s played this year, but in recent weeks he’s sort of hovered around the WR2/3 borderline. I’d expect his floor to remain in that range, but the hope is that DeVito brings back some of that top-10 upside that Nabers showed earlier this year. You know he’s going to continue to see 30% of the targets, and the Bucs allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. Nabers should continue to be started with confidence.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Bowers is coming off his best performance of the season, and is easily pacing to post the best rookie tight end season since Mike Ditka’s 12-TD rookie campaign back in the 60s. The matchup here isn’t a great one – Denver allows the 12^th-fewest TE points per game – but Bowers racked up 13-126-1 last weekend against a Miami team that entered the week allowing the 8^th-fewest. Bowers has earned 10+ targets in 4 of his past 6 games, and he’s an easy call as a top-3 option at tight end this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Daniels has been slipping in recent weeks. He still ranks as the QB6 by total points, but he’s finished as the QB24 or worse in 3 of the last 5 games. On paper, Dallas looks like a great matchup to right the ship – the Cowboys allow the 5^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA – but Dallas’ defense has been badly hampered by injuries and is getting healthier. Micah Parsons returned last week after a 6-week absence, and Marshawn Kneeland and DaRon Bland could both be active this week. Kneeland, like Parsons, was hurt in week 4, and Bland would be making his season debut. The Cowboys have allowed 25+ points to an opposing QB 4 times this year. 3 of them were with Parsons & Kneeland sidelined. They’ve held 3 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced with Parsons active below 13 points. With that said, the Dallas defense remains really bad against the run, and they’ve especially struggled with mobile QBs. The 5 QBs that have scored 20+ fantasy points against Dallas this year have averaged 10.1 fantasy points against them from just rushing production, and that includes 0.5 points from Jared Goff. Daniels should have success running the ball, and I think he finds his way back into the ranks of the QB1s this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): Irving has finished as a top-18 PPR back in 4 of his last 5 games, and now gets to face a Giants’ defense that has allowed 773 rushing yards in their last 4 contests. Irving has posted those performances in a stretch where Tampa has played mostly from behind, which tends to favor Rachaad White. During the current Tampa 4-game losing streak, White has run 31 more receiving routes than Irving, but carried the ball 9 fewer times. This week, Tampa is favored by 5.5-points and should be playing from ahead for a change. That should slant this backfield in Irving’s favor for the week, and against a terrible Giants’ run defense, he should have no trouble putting together an RB2 finish. It’s worth mentioning though that the Bucs have talked about wanting to get Sean Tucker involved again, but I think we likely won’t see Tucker for more than a couple plays unless we get into garbage time late.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): In all honesty, I could probably move McConkey up to the section above, and you probably wouldn’t bat an eye. Touchdowns and ceiling weeks haven’t been easy to come by for the rookie – he has just one top-12 fantasy finish all year – but he’s been a top-30 finisher in 5 of his last 7 games, and this week sets up really nicely for him against a Ravens’ team that is significantly better defending the run than the pass. Baltimore allows the most WR fantasy points per game, and they play man-to-man coverage at the 12^th-highest rate in the NFL. No WR has been better against man coverage than McConkey this year. Per PFF, he’s averaging 0.82 PPR points per route run against man coverage, the best rate in the league this year (minimum 50 routes run), and he ranks 5^th in yards per route run against man coverage with 4.02. With all the byes this week, it’s hard to see him as anything less than a solid WR2 play.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Rostering Harrison has been much more of a roller coaster ride than it should be for a player who has a 42% air yardage share for the season and has been above a 20% target share in 8 of his last 9 games (he left the other game early with a concussion). In the 8 games where he’s seen over a 20% target share, he’s finished as a top-25 PPR WR 5 times, and he’s finished outside the top-45 3 times. There hasn’t been much of a middle ground. With all of the byes this week, I find it hard to believe he’ll finish outside the top-45 WRs in week 12, especially against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and they’re in the top half of the league in man coverage rate. Harrison has done his best work against man coverage – per PFF, he ranks in the top-10 receivers in the league in fantasy points per route run vs. man coverage (minimum 25 routes), and he earns a target on a third of his routes against man-to-man defenses. I’d treat him as a fringe WR2 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Odunze gets the benefit of the doubt this week because of the bye-pocalypse. The Bears’ passing game looked competent for the first time in weeks last Sunday now that Thomas Brown is calling the plays, and since week 8 Rome has a 26% target share and 40% air yardage share, both team highs. They’ve finally started to run the passing game through him a bit more, and the Vikings allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I wouldn’t view Odunze as anything more than a WR3 option given how inconsistent the Bears’ passing game and Odunze’s production have been, but if you’ve got the fortitude to start him, there’s a solid chance it’ll pay dividends.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): In all honesty, Worthy probably isn’t a great option this week, but if you’re impacted by byes, there aren’t a lot of players who offer a higher ceiling than Worthy. The likeliest way this game plays out is that the Chiefs lean on a returning Isiah Pacheco and the run game and easily beat a Carolina team that they’re favored to beat by double-digits, but part of me believes Mahomes and the Chiefs are itching for an opportunity to finally have an offensive explosion, and Carolina may offer the perfect matchup to do it. The Panthers rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in run defense DVOA, and Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this year. We know Mahomes and the Chiefs have a 40-point game in them, and if that happens, the chances are pretty good that Xavier Worthy scores one of the TDs. Worthy’s targets have been down since DeAndre Hopkins joined the team, but he turned 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt into a top-20 finish against a strong Buffalo defense last weekend. A similar workload against a bad Panthers’ defense could be on tap this week. I see Worthy as a boom-or-bust WR3/4 play this week. If you believe the Chiefs’ offense explodes, he’s probably worth rolling the dice on.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): Obviously, you probably don’t want to start Maye in single QB formats against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but don’t let that defense scare you off of him if you’re considering him for a QB2 spot. Miami was dominant against QBs early in the year, but they’ve been much more vulnerable in recent weeks and now rank 16^th in pass defense DVOA. In their last 4 contests, Miami has allowed nearly 280 passing yards per game and gave up multiple TD passes 3 times, including to Gardner Minshew last weekend. There are going to be rookie mistakes with Maye – he’s thrown 6 INTs in 5 full games played – but we know he’s going to be aggressive and make plays as well, and he provides a boost with his legs that can offset some of the mistakes (Maye averages 41 rushing yards per game in his 6 starts). I’d view Maye as a mid-range QB2 this week in a matchup that isn’t quite as tough as it seems on paper.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): The switch to Thomas Brown at OC proved to be a fruitful one for Caleb for at least one week. The Bears’ offense looked much sharper than they had in weeks under Shane Waldron, and Caleb was more decisive and willing to take off and run when he didn’t get the looks he wanted in the passing game. Caleb finished with his 2^nd-highest completion percentage of the season, 231 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards, but was just the QB21 for the week due to lack of touchdowns. I’m hopeful the positive strides continue this week, but the Vikings’ defense is a different animal than Green Bay’s. Minnesota ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, allows the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, and allows the fewest QB rushing yards per game. In fact, no QB they’ve faced has run for 20+ yards against them. Caleb is going to have to win throwing the ball against the best pass defense in the league. With only 26 teams in action, Caleb is of course in consideration for superflex spots if you’re in a pinch, but I wouldn’t consider him as a fill-in QB1 this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Sean Payton loves to mess with us on a weekly basis, doesn’t he? The Broncos’ head coach had teased bigger workloads for Estime multiple times earlier this season without following through, so it was a surprise when Estime handled 14 of the team’s 17 RB carries in week 10 despite Payton talking him up that week. When Payton continued to talk him up into week 11, it was only natural to believe that his large workload would continue, but Payton pulled the rug out from under us last Sunday. Estime was one of the most added players in fantasy leagues last week, and is one of the most dropped players this week after finishing with just 25 yards on 9 touches against Atlanta. 9 touches may sound like a decent workload, but 7 of those touches came in 2^nd half garbage time after Denver had opened up a 28-6 lead. Javonte Williams served as the clear lead back, and Estime handled mop up duty. This week’s matchup is another one that the Broncos could win comfortably – they’re 5.5-point road favorites in Vegas – and the Raiders allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but you’re taking a huge risk if you’re relying on Estime in lineups this week. I know there are a lot of byes this week and you may be desperate for RB help, but with Payton in charge, Estime could see 20 touches or he could see 3. If I had to pick a Denver back to start this week, I’m picking Javonte.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 12: @ Sea.): Benson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in each of his last two games, but Arizona has had a strange habit of playing in lopsided games this year, and most of Trey’s playing time has come in garbage time. He’s logged 4 games this year with at least 9 touches, and all 4 of those games were decided by 20+ points. Just 14 of his 54 touches for the season have come in situations where the margin on the scoreboard was less than 14 points. I bring this up because the Cardinals are 1-point underdogs in Seattle. If this game is as close as Vegas thinks it’ll be, Benson likely will be limited to just a few touches. Seattle isn’t a daunting matchup for running backs, allowing the 11^th-most RB points per game, but starting Benson is a bet on this game being more lopsided than it should be on paper.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Legette has been serving as the Panthers’ de facto WR1 since the Diontae Johnson trade, and while that’s a good thing for him in general, it’s not great when you’re facing the Chiefs because it means a head-to-head matchup with Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has allowed just 5.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage this season, and he’s a big part of the reason why Kansas City allows the 3^rd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers. Legette only has one top-24 fantasy finish this season, and in this tough matchup it’s likely he will finish below his normal production. I’d view him as a WR4 option this week at best.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): It’s always difficult to trust a player in your lineup the week after he puts up a goose egg. In his first 3 games played, Pearsall finished as the PPR WR46, WR35, and then WR12 before being blanked last Sunday on 2 targets. I don’t expect Pearsall to get shut out again, but he’s comfortably behind all of Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, CMC, and George Kittle in the team target pecking order, and that’s going to make him hit-or-miss on a weekly basis. This week he faces the Packers, who allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander in this contest, so Pearsall gets a small bump, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make me comfortable starting him when he could be limited to just a few touches.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Franklin found the end zone last weekend and has seen his route participation rate increase in each of the last 3 weeks, but he’s still limited to a part-time role, he’s not earning targets at a high rate, and Sean Payton could pull the rug out from under us at any moment and cut his involvement in half. Franklin hasn’t earned higher than a 10% target share since week 7, and even with the TD last weekend, he finished as the PPR WR40 for the week. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, do play man-to-man coverage at a significantly higher rate than the Falcons do, and Franklin does his best work against man coverage, but the Raiders are still only playing man-to-man at a league average rate. I wouldn’t want to trust Franklin this week, even in deeper leagues.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): Noah Fant is questionable again this week, so the door is open for another Barner start in Seattle, but I would look for other options this week, even if you’re desperate for a fill in. The Cardinals allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all year to catch for 40+ yards (George Kittle and Will Dissly), and only Kittle to reach the end zone. Barner’s average target has been just 3.3 yards downfield in his two games as starter, so you’re banking on a TD or a bunch of targets to get a respectable performance if you start him.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Wright has seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert in this backfield, but there’s a chance that’s due to a groin injury Mostert has been dealing with. Wright has out-snapped Mostert in each of the last two games, but so far it hasn’t resulted in a large workload, as he’s logged just 6 touches in each of those contests. The last time he handled more than 6 touches in a game was back in week 5 when he tallied 13 carries for 86 yards against these same Patriots he’s facing this week. In that game, De’Von Achane suffered an early concussion and Wright split the backfield work with Mostert. I wouldn’t expect a repeat here. Tyler Huntley was at QB in that game, and the Dolphins called a run-heavy gameplan. I’d be surprised if Wright gets to double-digit touches this time around, and I wouldn’t view him as anything more than a desperation option. 

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): Steele has now been held under 20% of the offensive snaps in 7 straight games, and Kansas City is expected to welcome back Isiah Pacheco this week. It’s possible Steele doesn’t lose additional snaps with Pacheco’s return since he offers a different skill set than the other KC backs, but he’s not playable now, and he won’t be playable with Pacheco back.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Corum was allowed to play for one glorious 2^nd quarter drive last weekend where he rushed for 21 yards on 4 carries and pulled in a 7-yard reception as well, but he spent pretty much the entire rest of the game on the sideline. He had just 1 rush attempt for zero yards outside of that drive. He continues to be nothing more than a change of pace back for Kyren Williams, and the Rams don’t like to change pace a whole lot. Philly allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, so I wouldn’t count on a surprising spike game on limited touches here.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): Guerendo has played just 5 offensive snaps and touched the ball just once in the two games with Christian McCaffrey back on the field. He’s off the fantasy radar until there’s another injury in this backfield.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Vidal has now been a healthy scratch in two straight games with Gus Edwards back. He’s not on the fantasy radar in non-dynasty formats.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): The Patriots got Kendrick Bourne back into the mix in week 11 and Polk operated as the team’s WR5. He was in a route on nearly a third of the team dropbacks but wasn’t targeted. He’s now earned just 2 targets in the last 3 games. You can’t have any confidence in plugging him into lineups.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Mitchell was under a 20% route participation rate for the 2^nd time in the last 3 weeks last weekend (also for just the 2^nd time in the last 8 games), and he turned that limited playing time into 1-33 on two targets. He was tripped up a yard short of a touchdown on that one catch. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game Anthony Richardson has started this season, and is a distant WR4 on the depth chart at the moment. Detroit allows the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Mitchell isn’t going to be the receiver to take advantage of that matchup.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Washington was in a route on 37% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 11, his 2^nd highest route participation rate of the season, and equal with Odell Beckham Jr.’s rate for the week as well, but he finished with just 18 yards on 4 touches. He’s still too deep down the pecking order in this offense to be considered for fantasy lineups.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): McCaffrey was in a route on just 31% of the team passing dropbacks last week against the Eagles. It was his lowest route participation rate of the season. He hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps in any game since week 5, and he’s totaled just 2 catches in his last 5 games.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Whittington has run just one route in the last two weeks since returning from injury. He’s being used almost exclusively on special teams at this point.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Stover remains at least modestly involved in the offense – he logged right around a 30% route participation rate in week 11, even with Nico Collins back – but he’s still yet to reach 3 targets or 4 PPR points in any game this season. He remains a Dalton Schultz injury away from relevance.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Sinnott remains the TE3 in Washington. He ran just a handful of targetless routes in week 11 while John Bates was targeted 3 times against Philly. Sinnott was the second TE off the board in the draft in April, but he continues to be a non-factor as a rookie.

Rookies on Byes in week 12: RB Ray Davis, BUF, RB Braelon Allen, WR Keon Coleman, BUF, WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX, WR Mason Tipton, NO, WR Jermaine Burton, CIN, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Laube has spent his rookie season mostly languishing as a healthy scratch on game days. He’s been active just 3 times this season, and played only one offensive snap in those 3 games – a snap where he fumbled the ball away. He may finally get his second touch of the season this week with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison both battling injuries. Both players missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Ameer Abdullah has been the 3^rd RB for much of the season, and will undoubtedly see an expanded role if both players are out, but there really aren’t any Vegas running backs left who are built to run between the tackles. Between Abdullah, Laube, and the team’s two practice squad RBs (newly signed Chris Collier and rookie Sincere McCormick), Vegas has 4 backs who all weigh 210 pounds or less. Because of that, I don’t expect either practice squad player to leapfrog Laube into a big role. I think we’re going to see Abdullah play something like two-thirds of the snaps, and Laube fill in the rest of the time. The Broncos rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 4^th-most RB receptions and 5^th-most RB receiving yards per game, so that’s the place the Raiders backs should be able to do damage, and both Abdullah and Laube are capable in that area. I’m not sure I’d want to count on more than 5-6 PPR points out of Laube this week, but if White and Mattison both miss this game, he’s likely to be at least modestly involved. He’s still just a desperation option in deep PPR leagues this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): I mention Brooks here more as a stash for future weeks than as a guy to plug in for week 12. Brooks is expected to finally be activated this week and see his first NFL action, but he enters a backfield that has largely been dominated by Chuba Hubbard, so he’ll be fighting for RB2 work alongside Miles Sanders. There is a sliver of hope for Brooks this week as the Panthers figure to play from behind as 10.5-point underdogs, and Brooks’ clearest path to playing time is in the passing game. For the season, Chuba Hubbard has played 72% of the offensive snaps, but he’s played just 34% of the long down & distance snaps and has ceded much of that work to Sanders. If Brooks can take over that Sanders role, he could have some receiving upside in a game where the Panthers should be forced to throw a lot. It’s worth nothing though, that the Chiefs have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB receptions and 6^th-fewest RB receiving yards this year. Brooks is only worth a look out of desperation, but better weeks could be ahead with Tampa in week 13 and Dallas in week 15.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in back-to-back games and seems to have established himself as Denver’s clear WR2. The potential return of Josh Reynolds this week could throw a wrench into things, but Vele again feels like a reasonable WR3/4 option in PPR leagues against a Vegas team that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA and has been more vulnerable in the slot than on the perimeter. Slot corner Nate Hobbs has allowed the most fantasy points per route run into his coverage among the Raiders’ starting corners, and that’s who Vele should face most often. There’s always risk in trusting a Sean Payton skill player that isn’t named Courtland Sutton, but Vele has shown a nice floor in recent performances.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Coker’s outlook this week is really going to depend on how Adam Thielen is used upon his return. Thielen is expected to be active this week, and in his tenure with the Panthers he’s been used primarily as a slot receiver…the same role that Jalen Coker has been playing for the last couple months. Per Mike Clay from ESPN, the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot, but the 3^rd-fewest to receivers on the perimeter, so it’s kind of a big deal which guy will play in the slot. If Thielen is held out for another week, then we know Coker has sneaky WR3 upside in this matchup as the primary slot guy. If Thielen returns, pay close attention to the reporting on how these players will be used. I find it hard to believe that David Moore will remain a starter in 3-wide sets with Thielen back, which means one of Thielen or Coker will be lined up on the outside. The one who stays in the slot has a chance at a strong fantasy performance.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): McMillian has been kind of a forgotten man in Tampa since he’s been sidelined and hasn’t played since week 8, and now his return to the lineup will be overshadowed by Mike Evans returning the same week. With that said, I expect McMillan to play a full-time role this week and push Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett back to the bench. Mike Evans will undoubtedly be the WR1 this week, but the Bucs are a pass-first team, and the Giants rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA. McMillan still hasn’t caught for more than 35 yards in a game this season, so the ceiling probably isn’t huge here, but in a week with so many byes, McMillan has some appeal if you’re desperate for a fill-in WR. I’d expect Evans to get some extra defensive attention, which could open up opportunities for splash plays for McMillan, who has a 14-yard aDOT for the season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): You might not realize it, but Ja’Tavion has finished as a top-15 PPR tight end in 4 of his last 5 games and has become an integral part of the Panthers’ passing attack, and this week he faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t bump Sanders up to a top-12 play this week, but he’s certainly a serviceable option if your seeking a spot-starter this week because your tight end is on a bye. It’s worth noting that Tommy Tremble is off the injury report this week and is expected to return, and the Panthers have stubbornly treated Tremble as the starter when he’s been healthy. I’d like to believe that Sanders has shown enough over the last month that he should remain the full-time tight end with Tremble back, but we’ve seen Sanders play second-fiddle to Tremble as recently as week 8. Keep an eye on team reports this week to see if the team hints at Sanders being ‘the guy’ at tight end moving forward.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Just like Sanders above, Johnson gets a favorable matchup this week that makes him worth considering if you need a fill-in TE streamer. It’s hard to say with certainty how the switch to Tommy DeVito will impact Theo, but DeVito targeted tight ends on 17.3% of his throws last year, and much of that was with rookie Daniel Bellinger as his starting tight end, so I think similar usage to what we’ve seen with Daniel Jones is a reasonable expectation for the new rookie. Johnson has reached at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games and 4 of his last 5, and Tampa allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game. The passing game will still run through Malik Nabers, but Johnson should see at least a few targets come his way as well. Starting Theo probably shouldn’t be the goal this week, but if you’re struggling to find a spot starter, he probably won’t kill you.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 12: @ Was.): Jake Ferguson left Monday night’s game early with a concussion, and it seems unlikely he’ll get cleared in time to play this weekend. Luke Schoonmaker is the TE2 in Dallas, but both Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford were heavily involved after the injury. Brevyn finished with just a 39% route participation rate, but he hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets as Cooper Rush threw the ball an absurd 55 times. The passing volume should be high again this week as Dallas is a 10.5-point underdog in DC. Washington allows the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, so this is a middling matchup for tight ends. I wouldn’t consider Spann-Ford as a TE1, but if you’re in a pickle for a bye week fill-in for a TE2 or flex spot in TE premium formats, there is some upside here for a player who is rostered in just 2% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper. He’s more likely to be available on the wire in the deepest leagues than Ja’Tavion or Theo.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. What I’m thankful for this holiday weekend is that there are no byes for my fantasy teams to account for. We’ve got 6 of them next week to work around, so enjoy this reprieve from the bye weeks while it’s here. Because all 32 teams are in action, the bar to clear to be worthy of a starting lineup spot this week is higher than it’s been in recent weeks, so I want to warn you that I’m going to sound like a broken record referencing that fact throughout the column. There are several rookies who fall on the wrong side of the borderline this week that probably wouldn’t if there were a few byes. Keep in mind as you read through the list of wide receivers I’d lean toward sitting this week that being listed under that header just means I don’t see them as top-36 options at the position this week. If you’re in deeper leagues with more than 3 wide receiver slots or multiple flex spots, several of them can be useful.

This week is a unique one when it comes to the NFL schedule. Thanks to 3 games on Thanksgiving and a Black Friday game, there are 8 different start times for NFL games this week (9 if you count 3:05 CT and 3:25 CT on Sunday as separate start times). If you have any players that are questionable this week that you’re planning to start, you need to be hyper aware of their start time and the start time of the replacement options. Make sure you don’t wind up in a position where your backup plan plays earlier than the questionable starter, and keep your Thursday/Friday starters out of the flex spots wherever possible. With all of that in mind, let’s talk about this week’s rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Like it or not, Bo Nix is a weekly top-12 QB play. He’s finished in the top-12 in 3 straight games and in 6 of his last 8, and nothing about this week’s matchup should scare you away from expecting similar production this week. The Browns have allowed multiple TD passes in 6 of their last 7 games, and 270+ passing yards in 3 of the last 4. They also allow the 9^th-most QB rushing yards per game. They play man-to-man defense at one of the highest rates in the league, which should allow for some opportunities for Nix to run. I’d treat Bo as a top-10 QB this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 13: @ Car.): There may have been a long overdue changing of the guard in the Bucs backfield in week 12. Both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White finished last week’s game with the same 12 rushing attempts, but it was Bucky who served as the clear lead back. It was the first time all season that Irving ran more receiving routes than White in a game where both played, and it was by a sizable margin (19 routes to 11). Bucky also out-targeted White 6-to-1, and while the rushing attempts were equal, more than half of Rachaad’s rushing attempts came in 4^th quarter garbage time. Bucky dominated the work while the game was still in doubt, with even Sean Tucker mixing in ahead of Rachaad. Irving has been the more efficient back all season, and it seems as though the Bucs have finally redistributed the backfield work accordingly. White isn’t going to go away entirely, but Bucky should continue to lead the way against a Carolina defense that allows the most RB points per game and ranks dead last in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Irving has been a top-24 PPR back in 7 of the last 9 games, and his increased workload in this matchup means he’s probably a top-12 play this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): We haven’t seen top-5 upside from Nabers in weeks, but we also haven’t seen him finish as worse than a WR3 in any game this season. He’s finished right around the WR2/3 borderline for 4 straight weeks, and as we saw last week, a new QB didn’t change that. I would expect similar results this week with Drew Lock likely to start. Nabers could get some squeaky wheel treatment after he complained about not getting any targets until late in the first half last week, so he could see even higher volume than usual. Dallas allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and I don’t expect them to offer enough resistance to keep Nabers out of the top-24 receivers this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 13: @ KC): Bowers is coming off a down game in week 12, finishing with just 4 catches for 38 yards, but he earned 10 targets in the process. He’s not going to have many games with that kind of production when he gets 10 targets. Unfortunately, Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone in that game, so the Raiders go back to Aidan O’Connell at QB, but O’Connell shouldn’t put much of a dent into Bowers’ upside. Brock has earned a 23.7% target share from O’Connell for the season, and in the one game that Aidan played from start to finish, he posted 9-71 on 10 targets against the Steelers. Kansas City allows the 5^th-most TE points per game, and they’ve struggled to slow down tight ends who serve as an offensive focal point. George Kittle, Cade Otton, Mike Gesicki, and Isaiah Likely all posted 75+ yards against KC. Bowers put up 5-58 in the first meeting, and I’d expect even more this time around. Bowers remains a top-5 TE option this week in a decent matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Daniels seemingly righted the ship last weekend, finishing as the overall QB1 for the week after being outside the top-20 at the position in weeks 10 & 11, but some of the underlying issues in the passing game still remained. Prior to a long TD to Terry McLaurin in the final 30 seconds, Daniels had thrown for just 183 yards and 1 TD. If that pass falls incomplete, it would’ve been the lowest passing yardage total of the season for Daniels despite the fact that he matched his season-high with 38 pass attempts. Without that late TD, he still would’ve had a top-12 finish for the week thanks to a fantastic rushing day, but the passing struggles are worrying as he faces a Titans’ defense that has only allowed 250+ passing yards in a game once all year. That’s not to say the Titans are invulnerable – they’ve given up multiple QB scores in 6 of 7 games and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 7^th-most QB rush yards per game and 4 QB rushing scores on the year. Daniels’ rushing upside in this matchup means he probably finishes among the top-10 QBs for the week, but the passing struggles give me at least a little bit of pause before calling him an auto-start. He has a QB1 overall ceiling, as we saw last week, but a lower floor than Bo Nix.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): Tracy’s production was hurt last week with Tommy DeVito at QB as the Giants struggled to get much going offensively until late in the game. The team did lean on the run game when they could, and Tracy finished with a respectable 70 scrimmage yards and 4 catches, but he also lost a 3^rd quarter fumble and was benched for the following drive, a drive that ended with a 1-yard Devin Singletary TD. This week, it looks like Drew Lock will be under center for New York, which could prove to be an upgrade for the offense. Any improvement would mean more TD upside for Tracy, but the thing I’m most excited about for Tyrone this week is the matchup. Dallas ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. They’ve given up at least 140 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and Tracy should get the bulk of the rushing work. He let you down last week, but I like Tracy’s chances to get back to the RB2 ranks in this one.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): This recommendation is entirely dependent on the status of Breece Hall this week. Hall developed knee soreness during the bye week, and his status for Sunday is genuinely up in the air. With the Jets sitting at 3-8, there’s no need to rush Breece back if the soreness lingers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a multi-week absence. Braelon will serve as RB1 if Hall sits, and Seattle has been just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 17^th-most RB points per game and rank 14^th in run defense DVOA. Hall has averaged 14 rushes and 5.5 targets per game this season. I’m not sure Allen takes on that full workload – fellow rookie Isaiah Davis and 2^nd-year pro Izzy Abanikanda could take a bigger share of the workload than Allen has been getting as RB2 – but I would treat Allen as a fringe RB2 this week if he starts, even with no byes. If your choice is between Allen and a back that plays on Thursday or Friday, and we don’t have clarity on Breece Hall yet, play the Thursday/Friday player. If Hall isn’t out, Allen won’t be worth the wait. Braelon has scored 5+ fantasy points just once in the last 7 games.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 13: @ Atl.): McConkey has been a rock-solid weekly fantasy starter, finishing as a top-30 PPR WR in 6 of his last 8 games, but if you’ve read this column before, you know McConkey does his best work against man coverage – he averages nearly two and a half times as many fantasy points per route run vs man-to-man as he does vs zone – and Atlanta plays man-to-man at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. The Falcons’ pass defense is bad. They rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, so McConkey should be just fine in fantasy lineups as a fringe WR2 option, but be aware that Quentin Johnston has been the most productive Chargers’ WR vs zone coverage.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Hou.): It appears that Trevor Lawrence is going to play this week, but we saw ahead of the bye that Thomas can produce with Mac Jones under center as well, tallying 5-82 against the Lions with Mac at QB. We saw a dip in Thomas’ production for a couple weeks due to a chest injury and the adjustment to Jones, but he’s still the PPR WR14 on the year and he faces a Houston defense that allows the 6^th-most WR points per game. It’s likely he faces shadow coverage from Derek Stingley in this one. Stingley has been solid this season, but far from unbeatable. If Lawrence returns, Thomas should be a solid WR3 with upside for more. If It’s Mac Jones again, I’d downgrade him a bit.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 13: @ Min.): Harrison has been one of the most maddening players to roster in fantasy football this season. We’ve seen tantalizing upside, but we’ve also seen a scheme that doesn’t always make him the focal point of the passing game. Far too often, he’s been out-targeted by Trey McBride. Still, Harrison Jr. is the clear WR1 and about to face a defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game and was picked apart by the Bears last weekend. Harrison was held below a 20% target share last weekend for the first time since week 1 (not counting his concussion game). I expect the ball to come his way a bit more this week, and in this matchup I’d treat him as a volatile WR2/3 option.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Maye has sneaky QB1 potential facing a Colts’ defense that allows the 13^th-most QB points per game and has been shaky vs. the pass in recent weeks, but I’d view him as more of a mid-to-high end QB2 rather than a QB1. The Colts have allowed 260+ passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and Maye has finished as the QB18 or better in every full game he’s played, but many of those weeks included byes for other teams, so there were fewer QBs Maye had to beat out to finish that high. All 32 teams are in action this week. There may be a little bit of extra rushing upside for Maye this week as well. The Colts haven’t faced many mobile QBs this year, but they’ve allowed 40+ rushing yards to 3 of them – Malik Willis, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 13: @ Det.): We’re now two weeks into the OC Thomas Brown era in Chicago, and the results so far have been two of the most efficient performances we’ve seen from Caleb since early October. Things seem to be back on track for the rookie and this offense as a whole, but they run into a buzzsaw this week in Detroit. The Lions’ defense has been playing as well as any unit in the league in recent weeks. Detroit has allowed just 4 QB touchdowns since their bye in week 5, and a total of just 1 touchdown to opposing QBs in their last 4 games. They’ve also held 3 straight opponents below 250 passing yards. I wouldn’t write off Caleb’s ability to keep up his recent strong play, but in this matchup, I still would treat him as just a mid-range QB2.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 13: @ Min.): Benson finished as a top-24 PPR back in both week 9 and week 10, but last weekend was a reminder that he just isn’t involved enough in competitive games. Benson has logged at least 9 touches in 4 games this season, and every one of those games was decided by 20+ points. Arizona is a 3.5-point underdog this week against a Minnesota team that hasn’t been quite as dominant in recent outings as they were early in the year. If the Cards keep this game competitive, Benson will likely be limited to just a few touches. Even if it does turn into a blowout, the Vikings allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. I’m not sure 10 touches makes Benson even an RB3 against that defense.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): There’s no way you can reliably start Estime given the recent RB usage in Denver. Over the last 3 weeks, Estime has seen his snap share go from 45% to 22% to 8% last weekend. It’s possible he suddenly gets a bunch of work again this week, but the Browns allow the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and there are no byes this week. That’s the kind of bet I’d only make if Estime had a good matchup, and I was desperate for a fill-in.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Davis has been as boom-or-bust as can be for a backup running back this season. He’s scored 11+ PPR points in 3 of his last 8 games, but he’s scored fewer than 3 points in each of the other 5. The 49ers have been a dicey run defense, ranking 21^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most RB points per game, but Davis hasn’t reached a 25% snap share in a game since week 6. He’s just not getting on the field enough to be counted on in a week with no byes.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 13: @ Det.): Odunze has been much bigger part of the Bears’ passing game over the past month or so than he was early in the year. He’s earned a 24% target share since week 8, averaging 7.8 targets in that span and posting 3 top-40 PPR finishes in spite of scoring zero TDs in those games. I expect his increased usage to continue going forward, but Detroit’s defense has been on a heater for the past several weeks. The Lions have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game for the season, but their recent hot streak has moved them all the way up to 1^st in pass defense DVOA, and the last time they allowed two pass catchers to put up 40+ receiving yards against them in the same game was week 7 against the Vikings. If that pattern holds, how good do you feel about Odunze being the one Bears’ WR to top 40 yards? Odunze is still in play as a WR4 option this week, but he’d have to snap the Lions’ hot streak to pay off on Thursday.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): The Diontae Johnson trade and Bryce Young’s recent improved play have made Legette a viable weekly WR3/4 option, but I’d view him as more of a WR4 than WR3 in this one. The Bucs are certainly a burnable defense – they rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game – but they play zone coverage at a top-5 rate, and Legette is much better vs. man-to-man. Legette averages more than twice as many fantasy points per route run vs man coverage as he does vs. zone. We know he’s been on the field for close to 100% of the team passing dropbacks in the last 3 weeks, and his recent production makes him a reasonable fantasy start in this good matchup, but his struggles vs. zone are just enough for me to lean against starting him this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Worthy’s production all but vanished in the first two games with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster (he totaled just 1.1 PPR points in those two contests), but he’s seemingly found an equilibrium since, finishing as the PPR WR19 and WR35 in the last two weeks. Xavier is worthy of consideration this week (pardon the pun), but his volume (11 targets and 2 rushes in the last 2 weeks) is low enough that he remains a volatile weekly option. He’s at his best when he hits splash plays – he’s finished as a top-24 receiver 3 times, and he had a catch for 30+ yards in all 3 of those games – but the Raiders don’t allow many splash plays. They’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards and the 2^nd-fewest of 40+. If Worthy doesn’t hit a big play, he’s likely finishing the week as no better than a WR3, and likely worse than that since all 32 teams are in action.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Coleman hasn’t suited up since week 9, but he’s practicing in a limited capacity this week and should be able to return on Sunday. He might not immediately play a full complement of snaps though, and he faces a 49ers’ defense that gets Charvarius Ward back this week and has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. We saw Coleman have a mini-breakout with PPR WR12 and WR16 finishes in weeks 7 & 8, but he was limited to just 1-21 on 2 targets in week 9. His bread and butter all season has been splash plays, and the 49ers have allowed the 3^rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. There’s upside here – a player with Coleman’s skills playing with Josh Allen always has upside – but I think he’s just a volatile WR4 who is a better option in non-PPR formats.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Vele has established himself as Denver’s clear WR2 behind Courtland Sutton in recent weeks, but his Achilles’ heel remains man-to-man coverage. Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in 3 straight games - a top-20 WR in two of them – but for the season he’s totaled just 4 catches for 22 yards against man coverage, and the Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. I wouldn’t write off Vele completely this week, but I’d view his as more of a PPR WR4 option than WR3 in this one.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 13: @ Car.): McMillan led the Bucs’ receivers in routes run in his return to the lineup last weekend, but he was targeted just twice and finished the game with 1 catch for 11 yards. With Mike Evans back in the mix, it’s going to be harder for McMillan to make an impact on the perimeter, as the running backs and Cade Otton will likely remain heavily involved in the passing game. The Panthers rank just 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Most teams attack them on the ground first. I wouldn’t treat McMillan as anything more than a WR5 option this week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 13: @ Buf.): Even if I told you to start Pearsall, I can’t imagine you’d listen after he put up back-to-back zeros in his last two games. The expected return of Brock Purdy should help this week, but Buffalo allows the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. He’ll likely see just 4-5 targets or so in this one as the team WR3, so if you start him, you’re betting on him producing with those limited opportunities. He has some big play potential, but it’s tough to roll those dice with no byes to fill in for this week.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Coker was inactive in week 12, and he’s not practicing ahead of week 13 as of Wednesday. There’s no reason for the Panthers to rush him back after David Moore put up 6-81-1 last weekend, and it’s hard to envision any of Moore, Adam Thielen, or Xavier Legette going to the bench to make room for Coker to play a full-time role this week. If Coker plays, look for him to play a smaller snap share than we’re used to, which makes it hard to start him even against a Tampa defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 13: @ Dal.): Theo has put up at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in 6 of the last 7 games, but he’s reached 40 yards in only 2 of them, and 10 PPR points in just 1. Dallas is just a middling TE defense, allowing the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, but we haven’t really seen much of a ceiling here. I don’t think Johnson’s outlook changes much if Drew Lock is under center…he’s a mid-range TE2 with around a 6-point PPR floor no matter who starts.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 13: @ NYJ): Barner has filled in well enough while Noah Fant has been sidelined the last few weeks, but he isn’t seeing the kind of workload that can make him a fantasy starter. Fant is practicing in full as of Wednesday, but if for some reason Noah is held out again, Barner has totaled just 42 air yards on 14 targets in the last 3 weeks, hasn’t finished higher than the PPR TE19 in any of those games, and the Jets have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points per game. He’s a fringe TE2 if Fant sits.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): It’s hard to imagine that Sanders gets cleared to play this week after being carted off with a scary neck injury late in the first half last Sunday, but the only update we’ve gotten so far is that the injury isn’t serious. He was on track to have a solid game against the Chiefs, racking up 3-49 on 3 targets in that first half. If he’s somehow able to suit up this week, I’d view him as at least a mid-range TE2 against a Bucs’ defense that allows the 5^th-most TE points per game. Sanders had finished as a top-15 TE in 4 of 5 games prior to last week, and seemed to be on his way there again before the injury. I would expect Sanders will be out this week, but he’s playable if not.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 13: @ GB): Wright has handled at least 5 touches in all but two games this season, but he’s only topped 4 PPR points once, and that was in a game where De’Von Achane was sidelined. Wright tallied 7 carries last Sunday against New England, but 6 of them came in garbage time after the ‘Phins had opened up a 24-0 lead. With all 32 teams in action this week, a change-of-pace back (who doesn’t catch passes) like Wright doesn’t merit real consideration.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 13: @ NO): Corum was limited to his usual pittance of snaps in week 12. He was on the field for just 10% of the offensive plays against Philly and touched the ball just once. The Saints are a great matchup if Corum had any kind of workload to speak of, but he doesn’t.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Brooks finally made his NFL debut last weekend, but was limited to just a handful of snaps and 2 rushing attempts as Chuba Hubbard dominated the backfield work as usual. This week’s opponent, the Bucs, are much more giving to running backs than the Chiefs – they allow the 9^th-most RB points per game while KC allows the fewest – but it’s clear the Panthers are going to bring Brooks along slowly. I think 4-5 touches is a reasonable expectation here for Brooks, barring injury for Hubbard.

RBs Sincere McCormick & Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 13: @ KC): I was hopeful for Dylan Laube to play a meaningful role last week with both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sidelined, but he didn’t log a single offensive snap against the Broncos. Instead, fellow rookie Sincere McCormick was elevated from the practice squad to serve as the RB2 behind Ameer Abdullah, but he didn’t play much either. Abdullah handled nearly 90% of the snaps and McCormick got the scraps. It’s worth nothing that McCormick did manage to put up 33 yards on 5 rushes (Abdullah rushed just 8 times), and the team has talked up getting him more involved going forward, but it’s hard to envision him putting up a useful fantasy performance on an RB2 workload against KC. The Chiefs allow the fewest RB points per game. Alexander Mattison is expected to return this week – he got in a limited practice to start the week, so it’s possible McCormick just splits the RB2 work with Abdullah. Laube isn’t in consideration, and at best, McCormick is a TD dart throw.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 13: vs. LV): The last time Carson Steele scored 3 or more PPR points was week 3, and Andy Reid has said that, barring a setback, Isiah Pacheco will be active against the Raiders. Steele’s already small role is likely shrinking further.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Franklin might have a little extra upside this week since he’s proven to be better vs. man coverage than zone (he averages more than twice as many fantasy points per route run vs. man as he does vs. zone), and the Browns play a lot of man-to-man, but the rookie hasn’t earned more than 4 targets in a game in any of his last 5 contests, and he’s topped 20 receiving yards in just one of them. You can’t reasonably rely on him for more than a couple of targets each week.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 13 : vs. Pit.): The Bengals have tried to make Jermaine Burton happen in the last few weeks, but just have not had success doing so. He got extended run in 2 games that Tee Higgins missed, and then was still in a route on 25% of the team dropbacks in week 11 (his highest mark in any game that Higgins has played), but all of that playing time has resulted in 3 catches for 60 yards on 12 targets. His only path to usefulness is catching a deep ball or a TD, and the Steelers rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Burton’s not a good bet this week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): McCaffrey continues to play about the same amount as Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown, which is to say, not much. He’s been under a 40% route participation rate in 4 of the past 5 games, and he’s been alternating goose eggs with 1-catch performances for the last 7 games. If the pattern holds, he’s due for a zero this week. If it doesn’t, the upside here is still just 1-2 catches. 

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 13 : vs. Ind.): Polk is routinely logging route participation rates in the mid 30’s, and he’s been held below 3 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games, including goose eggs in 3 of the last 5. His season has been entirely downhill since his game-winning TD against Miami was ruled out of bounds. Before long we may see fellow rookie Javon Baker pass him on the depth chart. Baker set a season-high with a 17% route participation rate in week 12.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 13: @ GB): Washington is getting on the field just enough that he should be on our radar, but he’s averaged just 19 scrimmage yards per game over the last 3 weeks. There isn’t a good reason to start him with all of the firepower ahead of him in the pecking order.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Corley remains a distant 4th on the WR depth chart in an offense where 90% of the WR targets over the last month have gone to two players – Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. There’s no reason to roll the dice on the 1-2 targets Corley will get this week.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 13: @ NO): After Demarcus Robinson was arrested on suspicion of DUI this week, I thought there was a chance for Whittington to get back into the WR3 mix here if the team held Robinson out of action, but Sean McVay announced that he expects Robinson to be active in week 13. Whittington can continue being ignored. 

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 13: @ Jax.): Stover posted the best game of his career last Sunday, finishing as the TE11 for the week, but over 80% of his fantasy points were scored on the first play from scrimmage – a 19-yard TD catch. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks while Dalton Schultz logged a 75% rate. Stover is a TD dart throw who scored a TD last week. The Jaguars are a good TE matchup, but it’s a low-percentage bet that Stover finds the end zone again.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 13 : @ Atl.): JK Dobbins left Monday night’s contest with a  sprained knee ligament, and he’s already been ruled out for week 13. Vidal has been a healthy scratch in every week where both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were active, but he was the clear RB2 during the 4 games that Gus Edwards missed this season. That will likely be the case again with Dobbins out, but it’s worth noting that Gus is a less well-rounded player than Dobbins, so that RB2 role could be larger than it was earlier in the season, and it’s not impossible (though not terribly likely) that he takes over a lead back role. I don’t know that you can start him anywhere this week – Vidal scored fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of the 4 games Gus missed and the Falcons allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game – but he’s worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case his role is bigger than we think. He could be a difference maker in a week 15 fantasy playoff matchup when he faces the Bucs.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 13: @ NE): Josh Downs is dealing with an injury and seems like a longshot to play this week. If he sits, that means Mitchell gets to play a full complement of snaps. Yes, Mitchell has more upside when Joe Flacco is at QB, but if we get the version of A-Rich that showed up against the Jets in week 11, Adonai is a swing-for-the-fences option in deep leagues. The Patriots allow the 10^th-most WR points per game, and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. If Downs sits, I expect Mitchell to see at least 4-5 targets, and New England is vulnerable to splash plays – they’ve allowed the 6^th-most completions of 20+ yards this season.

WR Johnny Wilson, PHI (Wk. 13: @ Bal.): With DeVonta Smith sidelined last week, Wilson was in a route on 69% of the team’s passing dropbacks, and while he was targeted just once, that target was in the end zone. Smith isn’t practicing yet this week and seems likely to miss Sunday’s game as well. That would mean Wilson will be on the field quite a bit against the team that allows the most WR points per game. The Eagles were largely in control for most of last Sunday’s game and they were able to lean on the run. That might not be the case in Baltimore. I don’t think Wilson will see more than a few targets, but he’s an interesting ‘anytime TD’ dart throw this week.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Jake Ferguson has already been ruled out for this week, and while that means Luke Schoonmaker will serve as the TE1 on Turkey Day, Spann-Ford has played a significant amount behind him and finished as the PPR TE15 and TE24 over the last two weeks. The Giants have allowed the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game this season, but they rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve largely limited tight ends because teams have been able to pick them apart with wide receivers. With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas’ primary passing weapons have been CeeDee Lamb and the tight ends, so I don’t expect them to go completely away from Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford this week. There isn’t a big ceiling here, but don’t be surprised if Brevyn puts up 5-6 PPR points and finishes as a top-24 TE again.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.