The preseason rolls on, and so do ankles, Achilles tendons and ACL's. This week has been set aside to discuss the running back position. The guys who carry the load, perhaps the most important position to deal with early in the draft (whether you take one or not). Listen to this week's podcast below, but while you do, check out our Running Back rankings, as well as the rest of the positions.
(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 8/25/15, The Preseason RB Show!)
We talked about some of the undervalued RB's, like Antone Smith, Danny Woodhead, Giovani Bernard and Chris Ivory. We also clue you in about who to avoid, overvalued guys like Rashad Jennings, Bishop Sankey, Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde. Finally, we break down one of the most impressive rookie RB classes in recent years.
Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live at http://www.mixlr.com/drinkfive on Tuesday nights at 9pm CT. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion!
Welcome to a new season of the Rookie Report. ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!? The NFL kickoff is less than an hour away as I write this, and I’m sure all us football junkies are getting jittery with anticipation (or maybe just drunk). For those of you unfamiliar with the Rookie Report, each week I’ll give a rundown of the rookies you should start for sure, borderline starting options, guys who should stay on the bench, and throw in some deep league sleepers. I’ll give my thoughts on their outlook for the week which you can hopefully use to effectively utilize your rookies. They are the hardest players in fantasy to predict.
Alright, that’s enough jibber-jabber. Let’s get to it. Since this is week 1, I’m going to start off by quickly laying out my top 10 fantasy rookies for this season. They aren’t necessarily the most talented players, just the ones who will have the best fantasy value this year.
Honorable Mention:Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE, Eric Ebron, TE, DET, Allen Robinson, WR, JAX, Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL, Andre Williams, RB, NYG
Alright, with that laid out, let’s move on to week number one…
Rookies to Start:
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl): Cooks is the one rookie that I would certainly recommend starting this week. It seems like Kenny Stills is unlikely to play, and the game could be a shootout. I think Cooks is ready to go off. In PPR leagues, he should be a solid WR3 or flex play. He might not score a TD, but I’d be shocked by anything less than 5 catches, and he has the wheels to take it to the house at any given time.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 1: @KC): Am I in love with Sankey in week one against a typically stout Chiefs’ front? No. Do I think he’s capable of a productive week? Absolutely. I’d probably lean against playing Sankey this week, but I think he’ll get a bigger share of the work than the preseason usage would suggest. I think Sankey sees 15+ touches in the opener, with 70-80 total yards.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (WK 1: @Chi.): Watkins has been banged up for much of the preseason, but he’ll be good to go on Sunday. The Bears’ boasted one of the worst defenses in the NFL a year ago, and they haven’t looked that much better in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect a breakout with E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball, but Watkins could have a nice debut. I’d expect somewhere in the range of 4-5 catches for around 60 yards, but wouldn’t be surprised if he does more.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers’ strength on defense is their front 7. Evans’s size is going to create problems for the secondary, especially if they double-team Vincent Jackson like most teams did last year. Evans is as good a bet as any Buccaneer to find the end zone in week one, but I wouldn’t expect a huge catch tally. The Bucs will be a run-first team.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 1: @TB): Benjamin’s value for week one really hinges on Cam Newton. Newton is listed as a game-time decision right now, but even if he plays I’d imagine the ribs will limit his effectiveness. If Cam doesn’t go, there’s no way you start Kelvin. If he does play, you’re pretty much hoping for a TD. Benjamin likely won’t go much over 50 yards against a pretty solid Tampa defense.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk 1: vs. Jax.): Matthews was a standout all August for the Eagles after a shaky preseason debut. There will be a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and this game looks like an easy Philly victory, but Matthews has been so efficient with his targets that it may only take 5 or 6 looks in his direction to have a productive week. He may be worth a shot in some deeper leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Carr may be starting for Oakland, but he shouldn’t be starting on your fantasy team. Rex Ryan loves to blitz, and Carr will be in a hostile environment. Carr played in a college offense that featured a lot of short passes and easy reads. The Jets defense will be anything but easy to read. I’d expect Carr to be rattled by the pressure and have a shaky first outing. Surely you can find 2 quarterbacks (If in a 2-QB league) that you should play ahead of him.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Although I’m very bullish on Hill for the season, I think week one is not the best place to utilize him. The Ravens’ defense is always pretty good, and at we still aren’t completely sure how the work will be split between Hill and Gio. Gio got the 1st team reps in goal line situations in the preseason, but averaged barely over 2.5 yards a carry for the preseason tilts. Hill will certainly see work in week one, but I want to be sure the touchdowns are coming his way before I start trotting him out there in the weekly lineup.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 1: @Det.): After the Hall of Fame game, Williams looked like he would share work with Rashad Jennings and be a really nice player this year, but that sentiment faded over the last few games of the preseason. He’ll still get some carries, maybe even a red zone tote or 2, but merely as a change of pace back for now. Jennings will be a 3-down back in the early going. Until that starts to shift, Williams should stay benched.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Jonathan Grimes, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): I list Grimes here because we haven’t seen Arian Foster play a single down of preseason football due to injury. Foster insists he feels “wonderful,” but I bet the Texans still intend to spell him more than the average bell cow running back and Grimes has been the most impressive of the backups. The Redskins defense was sieve –like last year, so Grimes could have a nice game with just a handful of carries.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Ray Rice is suspended for the first 2 games of the season, and Bernard Pierce has spent the majority of the preseason banged up. Taliaferro is a perfect fit for OC Gary Kubiak’s one-cut zone running scheme, so if he gets a chance to spell Pierce and looks good, they may ride the hot hand. Kubiak was the OC in Denver as they had a different RB break 1,000 yards every year back in the late ‘90’s-early ‘00’s. Remember Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Rueben Droughns? There are a couple of obstacles for the rook though. The Bengals’ defense should be stout up front with Geno Atkins back, and Justin Forsett is listed as the number 2 back headed into the weekend. Don’t be shocked if the rook does find some work however.
WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): ESPN’s Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold reported that the two primary players the Broncos will use to fill Wes Welker’s production are Emmanuel Sanders and Latimer. There was no mention of Andre Caldwell, who is currently listed above Latimer on the depth chart. I think that means we’ll see Latimer lined up outside in 3-WR sets with Sanders in the slot. It’s a huge boon for Latimer’s week one outlook in what should be a shootout with the Colts. There are always plenty of targets to go around with Peyton under center, and I think a line of 5-75-1 is very possible for Latimer in week one. There won’t be any questions after this week about whether or not he’s ahead of Caldwell in the pecking order.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Amaro gets a plus matchup in week one in an offense where he should be the second-best receiver on the team. I don’t expect the Jets to be explosive or for Amaro to pile up touchdowns, but he should see plenty of targets all year. In deep PPR leagues (14 or more teams), I think Amaro could be a nice play this week. He should see 6+ targets.
That’s all I’ve got for week one. Hopefully it helps you out. Now you can go ahead, kick back and enjoy the first weekend of NFL games that count since the Super Bowl. I’ll end the column with the same advice I always do: Trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a quiet one for several of the top rookies (byes were a factor in that), but there were some new rookie faces making waves this past weekend. Teddy Bridgewater, Bishop Sankey, Andre Williams, Mike Evans and Eric Ebron each made their first dalliance into an NFL end zone. Jerick McKinnon also burst onto the scene with over 150 yards. These are just the first of many standout performances to come from most of these guys. Let’s take a look at which rookies might standout in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sankey continued to perform with garbage time snaps last week, and coach Whisenhunt said this week he’ll see more carries, and he’ll see them earlier in the game. The Browns allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Sankey should be a decent RB2 this week. Double-digit points are likely.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The Panthers’ pass attack runs through Kelvin. The Bears allow over 24 points per game to opposing WRs, and I’d think Kelvin is a good bet for half that number. The only other relevant Panther WR is Cotchery. Feel safe firing up Benjamin as a WR2/3.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Cooks is always going to be a better PPR play than standard league, but even in a down game last week he pulled in 5 receptions and was on the field for 82% of the Saints’ snaps. He’s crushing Marques Colston in targets, and the Bucs allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs at 30.8. Cooks should be a solid WR3 even in standard leagues this week, and potential WR2 in PPR.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The potential is there for a really nice game out of Bortles. Pittsburgh has had an explosive offense so far, and a leaky defense. They’ve allowed a 7:1 TD-INT ratio so far and just got done letting Mike Glennon have a strong game against them in his first start of the year. Bortles should continue to get better each week as he gains more experience. I’d view Bortles as a mid-to-high QB2 this week. I’d trust him more than Tom Brady vs. Cincy.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 5: @NE): Hill is always a threat to score a TD, but the matchup this week may favor his teammate Gio Bernard. New England has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, but they’ve allowed them just 2 rushing TDs as opposed to 4 receiving scores. Gio is a bigger part of the passing game than Hill. I’d still expect 8-10 carries for Hill, more if the Pats play like they did last Monday, but Hill is a hope-for-a-TD flex play this week.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): With Ben Tate coming back from injury, it makes Crowell a dicey flex option. The Titans do allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, but it’ll likely take a TD for Crowell to be productive. I like his chances of getting that TD, though.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Zo-Bot found the end zone again in week 4, but he lost out on starter’s carries to Justin Forsett. Forsett is undersized and just a change-of-pace back, but until we start to see Taliaferro doing work early and often, it’ll be hard to trust him. The Colts give up a good amount of running back points (19.3/game), but a lot of it has been in the passing game. View Taliaferro as a low floor flex option.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): With Teddy likely to sit tonight, the Vikings will have to rely heavily on the ground game. That’s good news for McKinnon, but it’s better news for Matt Asiata. Asiata is still running as the lead back, and Green Bay will likely play from ahead. Asiata is the better back in the passing game despite his obviously inferior talent. McKinnon will see some work, and he could be a fun roll of the dice since the Packers do allow the 4th most RB fantasy points. He’s a high-risk, high-reward flex option.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. @Det.): Watkins definitely has the role to be a star, and Kyle Orton taking over at QB should actually help Watkins. He’s been the focal point of the offense and Orton is a more accurate passer than Manuel. With that said, the Lions’ defense has been fantastic. I’d expect 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards from Watkins, with the possibility for a little more.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The Steelers defense allows plenty of points to opposing WRs, and Robinson has the most talent amongst the Jacksonville WRs. His production has been a little inconsistent like most rookie WRs, but he’s a promising WR3 option this week. I’d look for 60+ yards.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Hurns’s outlook is a little less promising than Robinson’s. He’s reliant on the deep ball, and he might not get one in this game. His upside is greater than Robinson’s, but so is his risk. He’s just as likely (maybe more) to put up 2 or fewer points as he is to hit double-digits.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Adams seems to have moved ahead of Jarrett Boykin, but he’s yet to produce. He did have a long TD called back on a penalty against Chicago, and the Packers play more 3-WR sets than any team in the league. His breakout game is coming eventually. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): This one isn’t rocket science. Teddy’s unlikely to play this week, so he shouldn’t be in your lineup. Even if he plays, he’s a low-end QB2 at best. The Packers are just 13.3 points per game to opposing QBs, and that has come against Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler and Geno Smith. Take out Geno and that’s quite a gauntlet.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Tate should be back, and it appears he’s been passed on the depth chart by Crowell. Despite the good matchup, West won’t see enough work to be a productive option this week.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Foster should be a little healthier this week after limited touches a week ago, and the Cowboys’ defense has been much better than advertised. Blue will see limited touches, and I just don’t see enough upside for Blue to be a strong play. His only TD this season came on a blocked punt.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Despite Donald Brown’s struggles, Oliver isn’t a good bet to do damage this week. The Jets allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league by a significant margin. It looks like Donald Brown will still start this week, and there won’t be enough stats for even one productive RB in this matchup.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Hyde has yet to put up a reasonable yardage day, so he needs a TD to be productive. The Chiefs’ defense has been stout, allowing just 12.3 points per game to opposing RBs. I don’t expect a strong showing from Hyde this week. With just 2 byes this week, there are plenty of higher upside options you can play instead.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): Just making sure you’re aware that Evans is out for the next few weeks. Make other plans.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Lee has already struggled to get involved in the Jags’ offense since week 1. Ace Sanders returns from suspension this week and could steal some slot looks from Lee, who already has a minor role in the offense. There just isn’t enough upside to even consider Lee.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. StL.): I don’t love Matthews this week. The Rams have been getting gashed in the run game, and as a result, teams don’t have to throw. They’ve allowed under 190 yards per game through the air. Matthews has to compete with Maclin, Riley Cooper, Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy for targets. There just isn’t enough to go around this week to rely on Matthews.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 5: @SD): Jace’s time is coming, but it’s not quite here yet. His role is rapidly expanding, but the Chargers are allowing just 6 points per game to opposing TEs. I don’t see Amaro eclipsing that number. He’s safe to expect a few catches for about 30 yards from, but anything more would be a bonus.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Fauria is still out, which keeps Ebron on the radar, but with Calvin back closer to full strength, his targets should drop this week. The Bills have been decent against tight ends, and Ebron will just be too touchdown dependent for my taste this week.
Rookies on Byes this week: QB Derek Carr, OAK, RB Damien Williams, MIA, WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. vs. Atl.): Williams tallied over 60 yards and a score in garbage time in last Thursday’s win over the Redskins, and Atlanta allows the most RB points in the league. Their run defense is putrid. If the Falcons keep this game close, it’ll be more Jennings than Williams, but I love the upside Williams has this week. Atlanta couldn’t even contain Matt Asiata last week.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): With injuries to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera announced this week that Darrin Reaves is the starting RB right now. The Panthers haven’t consistently committed to the run game this year, and they’ve been predictable when they do with Cam staying in the pocket, but the Bears’ run defense isn’t very good. Reaves is an ok flex option in 12-team leagues.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): It’s hard to suggest playing Beckham in his debut game, but you should certainly keep an eye on his usage. He has incredible athleticism, and could find a big role in this offense as a dynamic playmaker. Make sure to pay attention.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 5: @Den.): Brown is still unlikely to be starting in many fantasy leagues, but he should be a sneaky flex/WR3 yet again this week. The Broncos allow the 2nd most passing yards in the league and the Cardinals have made Brown a part of the gameplan. When asked after the week 3 win over San Francisco if he was included in the gameplan because they didn’t know who he was, he responded “No one knows me.” I love that response, and I like Brown’s chances at a TD this week.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): This isn’t a great matchup, with New Orleans allowing less than 5 points per game to opposing TEs, but with Mike Evans out, ASJ should have a much more prominent role in the passing game. He has already passed Brandon Myers on the depth chart and played on every offensive snap last week. Glennon helped Tim Wright to some big games last year, and he could do the same this week. ASJ could be a sneaky good option this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you to fantasy victory. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Jamaal Charles and the game's other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider:
Ben Roethlisberger QB Pittsburgh – Big Ben and Antonio Brown have been hooking up like nobody’s business in the first few games of the 2014 season. That should continue in Week 5. This should be another big week for the Pittsburgh tandem as they hit the road to take on Jacksonville – a team that sits on the bottom against the pass. Rookie wide receiver Markus Wheaton has also begun to make his presence known giving Roethlisberger yet another speedy target. Roethlisberger is off to one of the best starts in his career already having 6 touchdown passes and nearly 1,100 passing yards in just four games. Ride with Ben as your QB1 this week and don’t look back.
Justin Forsett RB Baltimore – This week’s matchup at Indianapolis could be a decent one for Forsett. Although Bernard Pierce could be in the picture, Forsett has been the most productive and versatile runningback in Baltimore’s backfield. Last week Forsett averaged over 4.5 yards gaining 66 yards on 14 carries and also scored a touchdown against Carolina and is averaging just under 5 yards per carry in four games so far this year. Coach Harbaugh cannot ignore Forsett’s early season success and should move forward with him as his featured back whether Pierce plays or not. Forsett should get some scoring chances making him a good gamble as a RB2 this week.
Bishop Sankey RB Tennessee – Bishop Sankey is emerging as the clear cut featured runningback as most predicted he would after the first few games. Coach Ken Whisenhunt thought Sankey’s footwork wasn’t quite there a couple weeks ago but much changed a week later and the rookie back is now slated for more carries – and against a bad Cleveland run defense. Riding high after his first career touchdown last week against Indianapolis, Sankey will certainly have his sights on the endzone at home against Cleveland this week. Sankey should be looked at as a solid RB2 for Week 5.
Michael Floyd WR Arizona – It looks like Drew Stanton could be Arizona’s quarterback for the foreseeable future and though that will undoubtedly be a hit to Floyd’s overall value, he should still be a decent contributor when he takes to the road in a matchup against the high-flying Broncos. Stanton might not have Palmer’s accuracy but he does target Floyd enough to make things happen. In Week 3 Floyd got 9 targets and went off for 114 yards against a tough San Francisco defense. Stanton’s security blanket should be a good bet to top the 100-yard mark again this week and is a good bet to nab his first touchdown of the year. Maybe Palmer’s absence will pay off as Stanton probably won’t spread the ball around as much. Start Floyd with confidence as a WR2.
Roddy White WR Atlanta – White was targeted a whopping 14 times last week against Minnesota but only managed four catches. Still, it was good enough for 73 receiving yards and a touchdown grab. Though the catches don’t indicate it, the targets certainly show Matt Ryan has a renewed faith in his former number one receiver. I fully expect a shootout this week when Atlanta goes to New York to take on the Giants and White should find himself right in the middle of the action. Julio Jones has a funky ankle, which if still affected by game time could make White an even more enticing start. White enters Week 5 as a high end WR2 or low end WR1 – however you want to look at it.
Garrett Graham TE Houston – Garrett Graham was supposed to move into a bigger role with the departure of fellow tightend Owen Daniels. But a back issue has kept him out of the season opener and he hasn’t exactly taken off since his return. Still, Graham has all kinds of potential to shine in Week 5’s matchup against Dallas, a team that has given up the most points to tightends this season. Starting Graham is a stretch in leagues that start one tightend, but not the worst play in the world. In leagues that start two tightends Graham is definitely worth a shot as he should get a handful of catches, decent yards and is always an endzone threat.