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The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4
03
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

300 Yards

Julio Jones became the 6th player ever to hit the 300-yard mark in a single game, putting up the monster stat line of 12 rec, 300 rec yds, and 1 TD. Everyone who panicked after week three's 16-yard performance can direct their fears elsewhere (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick come to mind). Jones will be fine going forward, namely because his QB is the best so far in 2016. Matt Ryan currently leads the league in passing yards (1473), passing TD's (11), has only 2 INT's and even has 2-2 pt conversions. His 109.62 fantasy points are 20% higher than the second highest scoring QB, Drew Brees.

 

0 Points        

The Patriots were shut out for the first time at home since 1993, which predates the Belichick era. The last time the team was shut out was in Miami in 2006. Of course, most people would agree that the lack of points comes from a distinct lack of Tom Brady. Brady's suspension is over now and he'll be eager to get going after leading the league in touchdowns last season. It's time for the Tom Brady Middle Finger tour, you almost feel bad for the Cleveland Browns.

 

152.5 QB Rating

Ben Roethlisberger put up a 152.5 QB rating against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ben's 300 yards, 5 TD performance will certainly put a dent in those numbers. This is the 8th game of his career where he finished with a QB rating over 150 - he has 3 games with a perfect score of 158.3. The Steelers struggled last week, but with the return of Le'Veon Bell, expect full steam ahead with the best QB-RB-WR punch in the league.

 

19 Points

No kicker has put up 20 points yet this season. Mike Nugent and Dustin Hopkins both share the top spot with 19 points. Why bring this up, you ask? Throwing darts at a wall is as good an option as any when it comes to picking a kicker week to week. Nobody is that consistent - AHEM, Stephen Gostkowski and your zero points. Well, this column is called Statistically Insignificant, after all. This stat is pretty useless. The third best kicker this season is only owned in 11% of leagues - there's a stat you can use. Now go pick him up, or throw a dart at the wall, I don't care - it's a kicker!

 

77.60 Points

DeMarco Murray has 77.60 points already this season, helped along by his 5 touchdowns. He's first among non-QB's, and 8th overall among all players. He's got the number 2 guy, Melvin Gordon, beat by 10 points. Stand up if you had these two guys leading the league after 4 weeks, even above the stud WR's. Of course, one person did have them - my opponent this week, damn you ReDraft!

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Week 3: Fantasy Injury Impact
18
September

Week 3: Fantasy Injury Impact

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 3 Preview: The Replacements

 

QUARTERBACK

usa today 13225984.0Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) – Big Ben will be out for the season after undergoing surgery on his elbow this week. This elevates Mason Rudolph to a permanent starting position for the Steelers offense which has been struggling over the first two weeks of the season. Strangely, Rudolph was able to spark the offense against Seattle more than Ben had earlier in the game. Whispers that this elbow issue had been going on with Roethlisberger since before the season even started would make some sense of that. The Steelers just traded for a new safety to bolster their secondary and Rudolph and the offense are being undervalued right now. They all make for good ‘buy’ targets.

Drew Brees (thumb) – Brees had thumb surgery today, and according to Ed Werder from ESPN the target date for a return will be Week 10, after the Saints bye. Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter in New Orleans and immediately puts a damper on the offense there. Michael Thomas still received plenty of targets with Teddy under center, but surprisingly Alvin Kamara (13 for 45 on the ground, 1-of-3 for 15 yards receiving) did not. This will lower Kamara’s ceiling and push Latavius Murray off the radar. One interesting note, Sean Payton today was very ambiguous when asked about the starting QB going forward – maybe we’ll see Taysom Hill take over, or possibly even QBBC?

Cam Newton (foot) – This could be the end of an era for the Panthers’ QB. He looks beat up, is apparently nursing a foot (left, same as in preseason), and hasn’t been able to throw the ball downfield consistently and accurately since his shoulder issues. If Cam can’t run, and can’t throw.. it makes sense that someone else should step up in Carolina. But Christian McCaffrey can’t also be the Quarterback. Newton’s primary backup is Kyle Allen and they also drafted rookie QB Will Grier in the third-round this year, but neither seems primed to be a difference-maker or take the mantle from Cam. It just looks rough out there in Charlotte. (update via Ian Rappaport: Cam is in a walking boot)

Jets QBs are unusable (Sam Darnold w/ Mono out until Week 5 at the earliest, Trevor Siemian (leg), only Luke Falk left so no hope for Jets fans until October. This also decreases the fantasy viability of Jamison Crowder based on his usage in Week 2. It does look like Robby Anderson (4-of-6 for 81 yards) and Le’Veon Bell (21 for 68 on the ground, 10 for 61 in the air) will still be forced the ball, so while Falk being under center is certainly not a long-term positive change for them, both players should still be considered for your starting lineup.)


RUNNING BACK

josh jacobsJames Conner (knee) – All signs point to Conner playing against the 49ers this week, but we’ll likely see a little more of Jaylen Samuels. Of course, the Steelers tend to just pepper the starting RB with carries as long as they’re playing so I ultimately wouldn’t start anyone but Conner as long as he’s active and starting.

Damien Williams (knee) – and LeSean McCoy (ankle). It could be Darwin Thompson time somewhat soon. He will certainly be getting more snaps in the coming weeks with both starting RBs on the Chiefs already showing up on the injury list.

Josh Jacobs (groin) – Interesting that Jacobs isn’t being used in the passing game (zero targets last week) currently, but that may be completely because of his injury. Something to monitor, but if he’s only rushing and getting no passes in the backfield, his value is slightly depressed (and so will you be while watching the game!)

Devin Singletary (hamstring) – Devin played well last week (6 rushes for 57 yards and 1 TD) but was ruled out late in the game with a hamstring injury. Clearly the best RB in Buffalo right now, this is another situation to monitor. Frank Gore (19 for 68 and 1TD on the ground, 2 receptions for 15 yards) is still chugging along and is startable this week, especially if Singletary is limited or out.

Marlon Mack (calf) missed practice Wednesday – Nyheim Hines gets a boost if Mack can’t go.


WIDE RECEIVER

Alshon Jeffery (calf) – The Eagles canceled practice on Wednesday since their entire team is injured. At this point, it’s not likely that Jeffery plays in Week 3 and that may work in Nelson Agholor’s favor (8-of-11 for 107 yards and 1 TD). Agholor and Ertz (8-of-16 for 72 yards) are going to have a fantasy field day in Week 3 against the Lions. Lock n’ load!

DeSean Jackson (groin) – Jackson is getting old. He’s been injured in every game so far, and Tom Pelissero from NFL.com reports that he will not play in weeks 3 or 4.

Michael Gallup (knee) – Gallup has been killin’ it on the Cowboys (6-of-8 for 68 yards last week after 7-of-7 for 168 yards in week 1) and would surely have been an excellent play against the hapless Dolphins this week, but he’s dealing with a meniscus tear that will sideline him for 2-4 weeks. Perhaps Devin Smith will take some of those targets, and Jason Witten will be getting a few extra as well.

Tyrell Williams (hip) – It’s a hip pointer! Not horrible news, but still questionable for Week 3. He’ll also be going up against Xavier Rhodes this week, so it was already a bad matchup. May be a player to avoid starting against the Vikings, knowing that he has a bit of an injury going into the week. Darren Waller might be sucking up even more targets than usual.

Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) – Didn’t practice, probably won’t matter anyway with Bridgewater in.


TIGHT END

David Njoku (concussion, wrist) – Not only did Njoku suffer a concussion during the crazy fall to the head/neck that happened at the beginning of Monday Night Football in Week 2, he has also been confirmed to have broken his wrist. This will leave Njoku on the sidelines for several weeks, and early speculation from beat reporters has him coming back in Week 8 – one week after the Browns’ bye. At least he’ll have enough time to get over his concussion, yipes!

 

- Nick Foles (broken left clavicle) – My understanding is that Foles underwent surgery with a plate and screws, which will allow for an earlier return... six to eight weeks, like the injury to Aaron Rodger’s throwing shoulder in 2017. The good news for Foles was that this injury was to his non-throwing shoulder, which should limit the amount of time spent on the sideline. In the meantime, Gardner Minshew (3% owned, Yahoo leagues) will serve as his replacement with Josh Dobbs as the backup. Minshew was just drafted this year in round 6 (178th overall) and put on a good show against the Chiefs (22/25, 275 yards, 2 TD) and could end up being a QB2 in Superflex leagues. We’ll certainly find out what he’s made of this week against Houston.
- Tevin Coleman (high-ankle sprain) – Coleman was injured in the first play of the game. Typical. He won’t be going on IR and is expected to miss at least a few games. In the meantime, the 49ers will use Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert (10% owned) in a greater capacity from week-to-week. We know who Breida is from last year, able to handle a little bit of everything he’s called upon to do and putting up 153 rushes for 814 yards and 3 TDs (5.3 YPC) and 27 receptions for 261 yards and 2 TDs. That said, everyone is still sleeping on Mostert – he has averaged 6.7 YPC over his career, had 9 carries for 40 yards in Week 1, and a 15-yard TD that was canceled due to a flag. Breida always seems to be on the verge of coming out of the game, so Mostert should be on fantasy rosters everywhere.
- Joe Mixon (sprained right ankle) – Mixon did not participate in practice on Wednesday. Looks like he’s headed for a game-time decision on Sunday. If he doesn’t play, Giovani Bernard (36% owned) has been, and will be a great fill-in starter. He’s had practice at this role and does just fine. With Rodney Anderson going to IR and Mixon starting off the season injured, Bernard’s fantasy production will just go up from here.
- Derrius Guice (meniscus sprain/tear) – Guice injured his other, non-ACL knee in Week 1. Guy can’t catch a break. The team is still trying to figure out whether he will need surgery. Adrian Peterson (53% owned) will be starting at RB once again for the foreseeable future and , but the guy we need to talk about here is Chris Thompson (36% owned) who caught 7-of-10 targets for 68 yards in Week 1. He needs to be owned as a bench stash in PPR leagues at the very least. There is no one else on the depth chart worth discussing right now, so Thompson should be in line for enough playing time to be fantasy relevant this year.
- Tyreek Hill (sternoclavicular joint) – Looks like 4-6 weeks out for Hill, but it could be more if rehabilitation doesn’t go as expected. No worries for Patrick Mahomes, though, as he can just fill-in-the-blanks at this point with whatever healthy receivers are on the squad, plus Travis Kelce. At this point, Sammy Watkins is the #1 WR (9 -of-11 targets for 198 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1) and it doesn’t look like that will be changing anytime soon. Apparently fully healthy for the first time since his rookie year in 2014, Watkins should be an every-week WR1 in the Chiefs offense. Congrats to those of you who snagged him in your drafts! With Hill out an extended time, Mecole Hardman (27% owned) was targeted heavily on waiver wires this week and we’ll surely see what he can do against the Raiders. Keep in mind he didn’t catch any passes in week 1 – temper expectations. Demarcus Robinson (1% owned) is my pick for the under-the-radar guy that gets a boost from this whole situation, not Hardman.
- Hunter Henry (tibial plateau fracture) – The good news is that this shouldn’t require surgery, the injury is to the left knee (as opposed to the right knee ACL tear from last year), and there are some new techniques to inject calcium into the fracture area to enhance healing and speed up his return. It’s not likely, though, that he’ll return before 4-6 weeks of recovery. Virgil Green (1% owned) is the next man up, but he has never been fantasy relevant. No, it’s more likely that we either see the return of Antonio Gates, or the Chargers simply redistribute Henry’s targets to Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, mostly. Williams is notably also out with a knee injury and questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Lions. Ouch, Chargers.
- Sterling Shepard (Concussion) – Cody Latimer, Bennie Fowler, and T.J. Jones would make up the Giants’ receiving core if Shepard can’t be cleared in time for week 2’s matchup vs. the Bills. Just more targets for Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley, I suppose.
- Devin Funchess (broken collarbone) – Say what you will about Funchess, but he was still involved in this offense with 5 targets in week 1. With Funchess out until at least week 10, Parris Campbell (5% owned) should be forced to step up and we should see even more passes to the TE tandem of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle.
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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 5
09
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 5

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

0-4 vs the Chargers

 

Eli Manning is now 0-4 against the team that he shunned on draft day, way back in 2004. Sure, he probably made the right call, considering the Giants have two Super Bowl rings to the Charger's zero since that draft, but karma's a bitch. The Giants lost all 4 of their wide receivers on Sunday, with Odell Beckham Jr. and Dwayne Harris out for the season. We'll see what happens going forward with Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard, but the Giants are really hurting now and have an 0-5 record to show for all their struggles. For now, the Giants are a fantasy wasteland, best avoided until they can get some things figured out.

 

73 Seconds to Win the Game

 

When Aaron Rodgers has the ball in his hands at the end of a game, it just feels like a TD is inevitable. Perhaps the biggest mistake the Cowboys made in their own late fourth quarter touchdown drive was leaving too much time on the clock for Rodgers. This game delivered on its marquee matchup status, with 5 lead changes in the fourth quarter and a ridiculous end of game lateral play that worked a lot better than most - and resulted in the Packers D/ST gaining two fumble recoveries in the same play. Can we get an official scorekeeper explanation on this? As a commissioner, I sure can't explain it to people in my league. Sorry, @Shawn_Foss.

 

125.8 Passer Rating

 

Alex Smith has a 125.8 passer rating for the 2017 season, through 5 games. This leads the league, and it's not even very close. Brady is second with 112 - but Brady is closer to Deshaun Watson at 7 than he is to Alex Smith. Smith is also leads the league in completion percentage (76.6), yards per attempt (8.8), game winning drives (3) and has zero interceptions so far. In fact, he has zero turnovers at all and over 100 rushing yards already! All this maybe makes this last stat a little more impressive - he's only second overall in fantasy points this season, now just 0.32 points behind a guy who didn't even start in Week 1.

 

5 (more) Passing TD's

 

Deshaun Watson scored another 5 TD's last night, and has 10 in the last two games (9 passing, 1 rushing). He has now put up over 70 points in the last two weeks, with those games basically splitting that total. This has catapulted him into the top fantasy spot after 5 weeks, and with his 30.8 point average over the last three weeks, he's not just in the QB1 discussion, he's near the top of it. The Texans get Cleveland next week, followed by a bye week and a pretty easy looking schedule with a couple of tough road games sprinkled in. Watson has made a whole bunch of guys fantasy relevant in Houston, including Will Fuller and D'onta Foreman, not to mention the re-emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as a solid WR1.

 

5 Interceptions

 

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's on Sunday, yes F-I-V-E. Two of those went as a pick-six and perhaps the better story here is that the Jaguars DST has 12 or more points in 4 of their 5 games this season. Yesterday's 28 points matches their Week 1 total, and a home game against the Rams and a road game in Indy means you fire them up for a couple more weeks before their bye. It also is likely to mean you find a way to keep them through your bye week. On the other side, you've got the Steelers juggernaut offense that is just....not. Roethlisberger knows it's basically on him to figure this out and improve so as to not squander the great talent they have surrounded him with. Matchups in KC and Detroit over the next three weeks do not give a good outlook that he gets it turned around quickly.

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 13
06
December

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 13

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

  

15 Games With 300+ Passing Yards

 

Justin Herbert just completed his 15th career game with at least 300 passing yards on Sunday against the Bengals. He’s only started 27 games in his career, and has more starts with 300+ yards than starts without reaching 300 yards. Herbert finished this week with 26.28 points as the QB3, and is the QB2 on the season (QB4 by points per game). His floor is great, never dipping below 12 points this year, and he’s topped the 30 point mark 4 times - in each of those 4 games, he has finished as the QB1 or 2 on the week. Outside of fantasy, he has 5 game winning drives complimenting his 5-4th quarter comebacks this season. This is a really great showing this year for a guy drafted as the QB8 (59th overall), right behind Russell Wilson, who is the QB24 on the year.

 

86 Receptions

 

Jaylen Waddle is currently on pace to break the rookie receptions record. He currently is averaging 6.6 catches per game and is on pace to smash the current record of 101, set by Anquan Boldin back in 2003. Thanks to the 17 game season, he’s on pace for a whopping 112 total receptions, but even if there were only 16 games, he would be on just enough of a pace to break it. Waddle is the WR15 on the year, helped along by much more consistent play over the last 5 weeks, where he’s averaged 7.6 receptions per game and helped his team to a 5-0 record during that time. Waddle won’t challenge for the rookie yardage record - his pace of 1,110 for the year is far from the record of 1,473, set by Bill Groman back in 1960 in only 14 games. 

 

35.1 Fantasy Points

 

For the first time this season, a tight end leads all fantasy players in total points for the week. George Kittle put together a massive 34.4 fantasy points in half PPR. He had 9 receptions on 12 targets for 181 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. He tacked on a 5 yard rush for that little bit extra. Last week, Kittle had 1 catch for 13 yards, totaling 1.8 fantasy points. Kittle owners are sure to have whiplash from the point swing, so please be careful. Kittle got 30% of his total receiving yards on the season in week 13 (and 40% of his touchdowns, but he only has 5 total). Amazingly, Kittle has two games with higher yardage totals, and two with higher reception totals, but it’s his first career game with two touchdowns. 

 

12.2 Fantasy Points Per Game

 

Through 12 games this season, Nick Folk is averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game and is the #45 point scorer in all of fantasy football. That’s a better per-game average than DJ Moore, David Montgomery, Saquon Barkley, and the aforementioned Jaylen Waddle. Folk would be the RB11 and the WR12 on the season (if he played those positions and still kicked…it’s a stretch, work with me here). Folk has 7 games with double digit points this season. He’s only missed 3 field goal attempts on the year, all of them from 53 yards or longer. Tonight Folk has to kick in some sketchy conditions - it’s supposed to be very windy, and of course cold because it’s December, in Buffalo.

 

5 of the Top 10 Quarterbacks

 

Volatility is once again the name of the game at the QB position in week 13. Half of the top 10 QBs this week were not rostered in the drinkfive.com league, and those 5 QBs combine for an average ownership rate of just 39.2% in Fleaflicker leagues (thanks to Gardner Minshew for keeping that number low). This is the 4th time since week 8 that we have seen 5 out of the top 10 QBs not commonly rostered. This week saw a performance from Taysom Hill, which in hindsight, should have been obvious that it was coming. Even if he threw 4 INTs and ran for 100 yards (an NFL first), he’s still a good fantasy QB. Zach Wilson and Jared Goff both had their best games since Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger, the most rostered player in this group at 65%, had a stellar 4th quarter with 2 TD passes and a 2-point conversion on his way to beating the Ratbirds….errr, Ravens.. 

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