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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7^th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2^nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12^th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25^th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4^th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…

Rookies to Start:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5^th fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7^th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13^th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8^th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9^th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.

RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5^th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3^rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3^rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.

TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's semifinals week! Hopefully you had a bye and were able to avoid having to deal with the bizarre week 14 results to get to your semis. If you had any Rams, Kenny Golladay, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, or went up against Derrick Henry or George Kittle...hopefully you still found a way to claw your way to victory. Here's hoping week 15 gets back to normal a little bit. The lineup decisions this week are just as critical, so I'm still going to do my best to give you sound advice on what rookies can help you through to the championship. Note that the comments on Justin Jackson and Darrel Williams were written Thursday. Check the @drinkfive twitter feed for receipts on that. Let's dive in...

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Of course you don't need my help on what to do with Saquon in season-long leagues, but I have a few tidbits for you DFS players. This isn't an ideal matchup for Barkley, so he might not be the chalk play in DFS, but the Titans have shown cracks in their run defense of late. 3 of their 4 worst performances against opposing RBs have come in the past 4 games, and Saquon has posted 4 straight 100-yard rushing performances.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The Browns have been coughing up the 7th-most running back points per game (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring format), and they rank 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay had a disappointing performance in week 14 against San Francisco, but still finished as the RB17 for the week with 15.1 PPR points. He's scored 8 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and has the kind of week-winning upside that you can't leave on your bench.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): The Broncos have been solid against RBs, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has been remarkably consistent since taking over as the lead back in Cleveland. He's posted 14+ PPR points in 6 of his 7 starts, and found the end zone in all 6 of those as well (5 straight games with a score). His receiving usage is also trending in the right direction, and the Broncos rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Chubb is a solid RB2 this week.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): This is fully contingent on James Conner missing another week...if Conner plays, you sit Samuels. If Samuels starts, he should be heavily involved in the passing game against a defense that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs, and is just a middle of the pack defense against RBs overall. The possible absence of Ryan Switzer should make Samuels an even bigger part of the short passing game. He'll be a top-20 option if Conner is out again. Keep a close eye on the injury report on this one.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 15: @KC): Jackson disappointed many fantasy owners in week 14 after playing second fiddle to Austin Ekeler and managing a paltry 12 rushing yards on 7 carries. Ekeler is out of the way this week, and Jackson is poised for a breakout game against a Chiefs' defense that is coughing up the 2nd-most PPR points per game to RBs. The Chiefs' biggest problem has been limiting receiving production from the position. Only 2 teams have allowed more than the 85 receptions to RBs that KC has given up, and no one has given up more than the 831 receiving yards KC has surrendered to them. Jackson has the receiving skills to capitalize. He's caught 5-of-5 targets on the year for 61 yards, and while that's a small sample size, he caught 79 passes over his final two college seasons at Northwestern. Justin should be a surefire top-20 RB this week with week-winning upside. If you have him, you should probably be starting him. (Update: Jackson posted 16-58-1 on the ground and 3-27 receiving for 17.5 PPR points Thursday night)

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): Moore's production has been a little uneven, but his usage has not. He's been targeted at least 8 times in 4 straight games and this week faces the defense that allows the most points per game to WRs. The Panthers will likely be throwing as a 6-point underdog, and Moore should be a high-floor WR3 in a game where the Panthers' season is pretty much on the line.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): The Bucs have been playing improved defense of late, allowing just 13 points per game to opposing QBs over their past 5 games, but 4 of those contests were at home. The road hasn't been nearly as kind to Tampa. Eli Manning is the only QB that has failed to top 20 points when hosting the Bucs. Jackson has a solid rushing floor that should give him a good chance to keep Eli on that island. Jackson is a low-end QB1 option with upside if he can ever have a productive passing game to go with his rushing.

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Mayfield has been in a mini-slump for fantasy purposes with just 1 TD pass in each of the last 2 games after posting multiple scores in the 5 games prior. The Broncos have been solid against QBs, allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game and allowing only 3 QBs all year to reach 20 points, but they've been struggling of late. Since their bye in week 10, the Broncos have given up an average of 355 passing yards per game and won't have their star slot corner Chris Harris Jr. in this one. Mayfield is still a dicey QB1 option, but he should be solid as a QB2 or superflex.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Detroit has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA. Allen has posted some impressive numbers as a runner in the past 3 weeks, helping him finish as the QB4, QB2, and QB15. He ran for at least 99 yards in each game, but I'm not sure he keeps it up this week. No team has allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the 62 Detroit has given up. They've faced Cam Newton (2 rush yards), Russell Wilson (15 yards) Dak Prescott (2 yards) and Mitch Trubisky (18 yards). Allen will likely need to increase his passing production to be useful in fantasy this week. I'm not sure he'll do that. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs just once all year, and is yet to throw for 250 yards in a game. He's shown enough upside in the past 3 weeks to be considered a low-end QB1 option in deeper leagues, but I would be really hesitant to pull the trigger this week.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Keep an eye on the injury status of Matt Breida if you're thinking of playing Wilson. Breida has to sit for Wilson to be a viable option. Wilson has handled 47 touches in the past 2 weeks with Breida sidelined, and Seattle's defense is solid but unspectacular against opposing RBs. They allow the 11th-most RB points per game. As long as Breida is out again, Wilson should be a solid flex option with a strong floor. His receiving production dipped last week, but that was because the 49ers played with a lead for most of the game. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that in week 15.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Michel's workload has remained solid even with the return of Rex Burkhead. He's had 37 carries in the past 2 games with Burkhead back, but my concern is that his receiving usage has been non-existent. His targets in the last 3 weeks have been 2, 1, and zero. This week he faces a Steelers defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 7th in run defense DVOA. New England is favored on the road, so the game script should be positive, and the game has one of the higher over/unders of the week at 52, so there should be scoring opportunities for Michel. The lack of passing game usage still has me concerned enough to not claim Michel is an automatic start in this tougher matchup. He's still a viable option, just temper your expectations.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Speaking of guys who don't get much receiving work, Gus Edwards has one target all year, and is now dealing with a bit of a challenge for work from Kenneth Dixon. Dixon posted 59 yards on 8 rushes last week and vultured a TD from Edwards at the goal line. Edwards still appears to be the lead back, but the 16 carries he handled last week were the fewest he's seen since taking over as the starter. That usage still puts him in the flex conversation against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, and allows 21.1 points per game to opposing RB1s. Dixon's increasing usage worries me a bit, but if you're a gambler Edwards could pay off big.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Philly should lean on the run a bit more going forward since it looks like Carson Wentz will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury. Corey Clement went on IR this week, thinning out the Eagles' backfield a little more, so Adams should continue to get plenty of work. The biggest concern here is game script. The Rams are an 11-point favorite, and outside of week 11 when he was targeted 6 times, Adams has just 2 targets all year. If the Eagles can keep this game tight, Adams could do good things. The Rams rank just 24th in run defense DVOA. Adams has value as an RB3/flex option this week, but he's risky.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Pettis popped up on the injury report with a foot injury on Friday, but I'd still expect him to play this week. The 49ers have been dealing with a bunch of WR injuries, which have opened the door for Pettis to play a bunch. He's been targeted 7 times in 3 straight games, posting a line of 12-255-4 in those games. Marquise Goodwin also popped up on the injury report Friday. If Pettis plays and Goodwin doesn't, Pettis would be the de facto WR1. The Seahawks allow the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR1s. Even if Goodwin plays, Pettis is an intriguing WR3 option who has shown a clear connection with Nick Mullens.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Sutton was a big letdown last week in his first game without Emmanuel Sanders on the field, but he should be in a good spot for a bounce back this week. Browns allow the 10th-most WR points per game, and almost half of the points they allow go to the opposing team's WR1 (19 out of 39.5). Sutton is a WR3/flex option in leagues with 12 or more teams.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Foster has quickly emerged as the best fantasy WR option in Buffalo. That's not really saying much, but he's cleared 90 receiving yards in 3 of his past 4 games and had a season-high 8 targets last week. With Zay Jones only in the slot about half the time, Jones should share the attention of Lions top corner Darius Slay with Foster. Even with Slay, the Lions pass defense has been no bueno. Detroit ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, 24th on throws to the opposing WR1 and 30th on throws to the WR2. Foster could be in line for another strong game, especially if the Lions are able to keep Josh Allen from running on them.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): The Saints are one of the toughest matchups possible to a tight end, but Thomas has been targeted 16 times in the past 2 weeks and the TE position has been a bit of a wasteland this season. I'd play him over any other rookie TE and would start him over other borderline guys CJ Uzomah, Cameron Brate, and Austin Hooper.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Darnold's return to action went about as well as expected last week. He posted 170 yards with one score and one pick. He hasn't shown enough upside to be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Darnold has topped 230 yards passing just twice in 10 starts, has thrown for multiple TDs in just 3 of them, and has thrown 15 interceptions on the year. Houston allows the 11th-fewest QB points per game and is tied for 8th in the league with 13 interceptions. I'm not sure I'd trust Darnold as a desperation QB2.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 15: @SF): Penny's role is to split the scraps that Chris Carson leaves behind with Mike Davis. That isn't a role you can trust in the fantasy playoffs. The 49ers allow just 7.4 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. There is some upside for a cheap DFS tournament play, but he won't be in any of my lineups.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Freeman is no more than a TD dart throw at this point, and Cleveland allows less than 6 points per game to opposing RB2s. He's scored just 2 TDs in his past 7 games, and reached 40 rushing yards just once in that span.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Hines has scored more than 7 points just twice in the past 8 games, and the Cowboys allow just 6 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. Hines isn't a smart bet if you're taking a chance in a DFS tournament or a really deep league.

RB Darrel Williams, KC (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): I'd be excited to see what Williams can do tonight with Spencer Ware sidelined, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs will give him the opportunity after they signed the Charknado, Charcandrick West last week. West is a player that has played for Andy Reid and the Chiefs in the past and will likely leapfrog Williams on the depth chart. Damien Williams will be the number one back for KC Thursday, and it will likely be West serving as his primary backup. Darrel Williams was stuck behind Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice at LSU, yet he still managed to post better receiving numbers and more yards per carry than Guice last year. Keep an eye on his usage against the Chargers, but there's no reason to put him in your starting lineup in any format. (Update: Darrel Williams posted 2-13 on the ground and 2-19-1 receiving for 11.2 PPR points)

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have actually been one of the better WR defenses in the league, and they've really only been burned by WR1s. Ridley has been a boom or bust option weekly, with fewer than 10 points or more than 16 in each and every game this year. He's scored a TD in just two of the past 9 games, and this is looking like a bust week again. Julio should be a fantastic option, but Ridley is a risky flex in deep leagues at best. The Cardinals allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Callaway gets a reasonable matchup this week with the Broncos allowing the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR2s, but he isn't getting enough run lately to take advantage. Callaway has run 17 or fewer routes in 3 of his past 4 games and didn't make it to 3 targets in 2 of them. The Browns will benefit from not having to face Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, but Callaway plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. I'd stay away this week.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Hamilton could be fun in a Saturday-only DFS slate, but I'd be hard-pressed to play him in the fantasy playoffs. He had a nice game a week ago, but he has just a one-game track record and the Browns allow just 11 points per game to the slot. Sutton is a much better play than Hamilton this week.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Gallup's role has been much more defined since the Amari Cooper trade and his usage has actually increased with Coop on board, but his production hasn't really followed suit. He's averaged nearly 7 targets per game over the past 4, but averaging just 3 catches and 32 yards in that span. The Colts allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game. This isn't a week to take a chance on Gallup.

WRs Equanimeous St. Brown & Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 15: @Chi.): The Bears boast the best overall defense in the league, and Randall Cobb has regained his spot as the WR2 in Green Bay. Cobb played 44 snaps in week 14 compared to 34 for St. Brown and 30 for Valdes-Scantling. This was actually the first time that St. Brown out-snapped Valdes-Scantling all year. If you really want to roll the dice on one of these two guys, my choice would be MVS, but I wouldn't recommend using either.

WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): This is a great matchup for Smith, but he's been a ghost most weeks lately. Smith has posted 3 goose eggs in his last 4 games (10-157-1 in the other). He's an intereting cheap DFS option, but it would take a massive leap of faith knowing you could very easily get a zero from him. The Panthers do rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR2.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 15: @Cin.): The Bengals are actually favored in this game, so the Raiders should be throwing, but Ateman hasn't topped 50 yards in a game all year and has had more than 5 targets just once in the last 4 games. The Bengals aren't a good defense, but Ateman is just too risky to trust this week.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Don't get cute here. Ryan Switzer is questionable this week, and that could lead to additional playing time for Washington, but we've seen him play increased snaps before. It hasn't resulted in increased production. Washington hasn't topped 25 receiving yards in any game this year. You'd be crazy to count on him having the best week of his season in your fantasy playoffs.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Goedert nearly had his best game of the season last week. He had a long receiving TD wiped out by a bogus offensive pass interference penalty and was still the TE8 for the week. The QB change to Nick Foles changes things for this offense though. We don't have much to go off of since Goedert has only played with Foles for two games...the first two of his career. Goedert's role has grown since then. There is a bigger sample size to look at last season with Foles. Philly's TE2 last year, Trey Burton, totaled just 4-36 on 8 targets in the 6 Foles starts last season. Goedert remains a TD dart throw, but one that I don't feel great about with Wentz sidelined.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): The return of Ryan Griffin makes the Texans' TE usage even messier than it was before. All 3 TEs were able to get involved last weekend, with Akins and Thomas combining for 6-71 while Griffin posted a 5-80 line. The matchup this weekend isn't nearly as giving to TEs. The Jets allow the 5th-fewest TE points per game and rank 11th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. I'd steer clear of the whole trio this week.

TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If I had any faith that the Ravens would use one of these guys as their primary TE, I'd feel good about playing them in this matchup. After seeing Maxx Williams score an unexpected TD last week, I don't feel good about predicting anything with this TE group. The Bucs rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, but your guess is as good as mine on which TE will benefit from that. I can't trust any of them in the fantasy playoffs this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Rosen's rookie year could be kindly called forgettable so far. He's reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in his last 8 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 2 weeks, but I like his chances for a surprising week. I expect him to reach double-digits for the 3rd time in 9 games. Atlanta has allowed at least 14.8 QB points in every game after week 1, and they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Rosen would be a sneaky play if you're in a tough spot at QB2. He should have one of his best games of the season.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have spent much of this season playing from behind and have surrendered plenty of points to opposing RBs. They've been down enough that the number 2 backs frequently get in on the act, allowing 10.6 PPR points per game to the opposing RB2s. The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. Smith had his best game since week 9 last Sunday, and I think there is a pretty good chance he tops what he did last week in this one. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Miller is mostly a TD dart throw, but he may be a pretty good dart throw this week. The Packers allow the 4th-most WR points per game, and the 5th-most points per game out of the slot where Miller plays 67% of his snaps. He's had just 10 targets and totaled 6-67 in the last 4 games, but he's found the end zone twice in those games. He's scored in 6 of the 12 games he's played. If you're desperate, you could do worse than a coin flip bet for a TD against a bad defense.

WR DeAndre Carter, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Carter isn't a well-known name, but he's probably my favorite sleeper for the 2-game Saturday DFS slate. Keke Coutee has been ruled out for this game, and Carter is expected to be cleared to play. No team allows more points per game to opposing slot WRs than the Jets. Carter shouldn't be considered in season-long leagues, but he has a bunch of upside in a strong matchup if you're looking for a bargain basement WR in DFS.

WR Trent Sherfield, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Sherfield posted 5-77 on 7 targets out of the blue last week. He's clearly going to be involved going forward with Christian Kirk on IR. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and the Cardinals should be throwing as 8.5-point underdogs. He's too risky to try in season-long leagues, but is another name to know as a cheap DFS option this week.

TE Anthony Firkser, TEN (Wk. 15: @NYG): Firkser isn't technically a rookie after spending last year on a practice squad, but I wanted to mention him since casual fans don't know who he is. Firkser finally gives Ryan Fitzpatrick company as a Harvard alum playing in the NFL. He's managed to haul in at least 3 catches in 4 straight games, and topped 40 receiving yards in 3 of them. Jonnu Smith, who was starting ahead of Firkser was put on IR earlier this week. This should be the first game all year where Firkser is the unquestioned TE1, and the Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. Firkser is a low-end fantasy TE1 this week.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Herndon's production has been down over the past couple weeks and Darnold's return last week didn't do anything to help, but this week's matchup is a good one. The Texans allow the 9th-most TE points per game on the year, and in the past 5 games they've given up 65+ yards and a score to the position 4 times. Herndon is more of a TE2 than TE1 for fantasy, but I like his chances to post his best game in weeks.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): Arnold was a surprising healthy scratch last Sunday. I'm not sure if it was a disciplinary thing or what happened, but the matchup this week is juicy if he's active. The Panthers allow the 3rd-most TE points per game and Ben Watson hasn't exactly been a factor in the Saints' passing attack. If Arnold is active, he could be worth a swing in DFS tournaments.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you into your league championship. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, please feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure not to start anyone inactive. You'd hate to put up an unnecessary goose egg with your season on the line. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

38.1 Fantasy Points

Good things do indeed come in small packages, as proven last night by Kyler Murray. His 38.1-point performance last night vaulted him to the top of the overall points list for all fantasy players this year. His per-game average is still a few points behind Russell Wilson, who has already had his bye week, but Kyler defeated Russell last night, so let’s focus on him today. Kyler’s consistency is remarkable – his lowest scoring week this season is a healthy 23.12 points, which is a floor that not even Wilson can match. The Cardinals now have a 5-2 record in the toughest division in football. He has at least 2 TDs in every game, and in 5 games he has 3 TDs. He’s putting up some great rushing numbers as well, with 437 total rushing yards he has the 11^th most rushing yards in the entire league. Murray has made great progress since last season, and his future is very bright. As he gets better, his interception rate will drop, his completion percentage will go up, and he will be a frequent participant in the playoffs, both in fantasy football and real football.

51.4 Points in 2 Games

Yesterday was the Jeff Wilson show again for the San Francisco 49ers. Wilson found the end zone 3 times and is the RB1 on the week with 31 fantasy points. In 2 games, this season, Weeks 3 and 7, he has 51.4 points. In the other 3 games he appeared in this season, he has a whopping 5.4 points total. It’s enough to give you whiplash. This just kind of shows that the best RB on the 49ers in the last few years seems to be whoever the backup is. Another player who’s going to give your fantasy team whiplash, though not quite as badly, is Tyler Lockett. Yesterday he put up the biggest single-game total that we’ve seen in fantasy football this year. 15 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 3 TDs for a grand total of 45.5 points is truly an amazing performance. Weeks 3 and 7 were also Lockett’s good weeks, where he put up a total of 78 points. His two games between those weeks combined for just 11.3 points. Lockett, unlike Wilson, is at least an every-week starter that has to stay in your lineup for his absolutely absurd ceiling.

1 NFL Victory

Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been quite remarkable since he was called in to start Week 2 with just a few minutes' heads up. Sunday, he finally notched his first win and Herbert led all QBs with 38.48 fantasy points. This year, Herbert has 3 games over 300 passing yards and has at least 3 passing TDs each of the last 3 weeks. He’s now averaging just a hair under 30 points in each of his last 3 games. His schedule going forward isn’t too bad through week 16, with only 2 opponents not in the bottom half giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs. It also seems like regardless of Tyrod Taylor’s status, Herbert will remain the starter going forward. As for Herbert’s opponent yesterday, it seems that Minshew Mania has dwindled down to a golf clap at best after his paltry 14 for 27 performance netting just 173 yards passing. The Jaguars 1-6 record is going to have them thinking long and hard about the future of the team through their upcoming bye week. The only bright spot on the team has been rookie UDFA James Robinson, who is the RB6 on the season.

5 Go Ahead 4^th Quarter TDs

Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow combined for 5 go-ahead touchdowns in the 4^th quarter on Sunday, an NFL record. Both of the young QBs are playing very well this year for their respective teams. The two teams combined for 34 total points in the 4^th quarter, with a missed XP at the very end looming very large for the sports bettors out there. With his first 30+ point performance of his career, Joe Burrow moves up to the QB10 spot on the season. He broke the 400-yard mark for the first time, and also helped his own cause by scrambling for a TD to start the scoring on Sunday. Burrow also threw 3 TDs to 3 different players. On the other side, Baker Mayfield also cracked 30 fantasy points, but he sits as the QB21 on the year and is just an interesting streaming option for now. The Browns will continue to focus on running the ball first – they’re still 5^th in the league in rushing attempts. The impressive 5-2 Browns will host the Raiders next week, but will not have the services of resurgent WR Odell Beckham Jr, who is out for the season with an ACL tear.

24 Fantasy Points on Defense

For the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have the top D/ST score in the league. A gaudy stat line of 1 kick return TD, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered and 1 defensive TD contributed to their 24-point total on Sunday. This doubled up the 12 points that Patrick Mahomes put up this week. Not that Mahomes had a bad game, he just didn’t need to do much with his defense doing all the work. We also saw rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire find the end zone for the first time since Week 1. He’s clearly seeing Le’Veon Bell filling his entire rearview mirror. Side note – isn’t it awesome to see football in the snow? I freaking love it and the chaos that can sometimes ensue in it during a football game. Finally, you can add Denver to the list of teams (that include the Jets, Giants, and …Team) to fade when streaming a D/ST.