Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

You saw it out there - it was a massacre. Weeks like this happen from time to time during an NFL season, but the sheer number of injuries to prominent fantasy players in one week was enough to make team manager cry. And I'm betting quite a few people out there that had guys like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey drowned their fantasy football sorrows with a few glasses of whiskey. Regardless, the show must go on and I'm here to provide a guide to those players that you may want to get on your active roster in a hurry. Here's hoping that week 3 doesn't put even more people on the injured reserve!

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Matt Ryan, Michael Gallup, A.J. Green, Chris Herndon, Dalton Schultz, and the Arizona Cardinals (DST). 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Los Angeles Rams

What’s changed since last year? The Rams don’t have any big changes (or even minor ones) on offense to speak of. They let CJ Anderson walk as a free agent (now on the Lions) and they acquired Blake Bortles as a backup QB. Aside from that, what would you expect from a team that won the NFC Championship last season? There’s nothing broken, so don’t try to fix it! Cooper Kupp is on track to return and, had he stuck around all year (extrapolated stats), he would have had 80 catches, 1100+ yards and 12 TDs. This would have made him the WR8 in standard scoring, right between Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Not bad company, and a good piece to have returning to your team.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? So, Cooper Kupp is a third year WR, but obviously he’s broken out. Last season saw Josh Reynolds fill in for him, and as a 3^rd year WR, he stands poised to step-up, if only he could get past any of the big 3 WRs on the Rams. Kupp, along with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have a stranglehold on the position, and without an injury to someone, it will be difficult for Reynolds to actually show what he’s got. I then turn my eyes over to Gerald Everett, 3^rd year TE whom I think will be incorporated into the offense more this season. His receptions more than doubled last year from his rookie season, and he’s still not being drafted (ADP 276, TE31). Everett saw 50 targets last year and if that number can creep closer to the 70-80 mark, then he’s going to be a great low end TE-1 option this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? When you take the team that went to the Super Bowl last year and don’t make any changes, your opponents would literally have to be asleep for you to get some real value on them. I will mention that right now, Cooks (ADP 40, WR15, Woods (ADP 41, WR16) and Kupp (ADP 48, WR21) are all on the positive side of draft value right now, but none of them are a steal.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? In the spirit of this question, there isn’t really anyone on the Rams who are a genuine stud, considering Todd Gurley is not the player he once was. Of the three main WRs I mentioned, I think that Cooper Kupp has the best potential to become a top-10 WR, and he’s the “cheapest” of the three, so grab him in the 5^th round if he’s available.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? My breakout candidate, Gerald Everett, is unlikely to be drafted in most redraft leagues and will be available for those of you who are planning on streaming TEs this season. If he has a big first couple of games, then he’s likely to wind up sticking on someone’s roster for quite a while, so keep an eye out for him early.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Third round pick Darrell Henderson is currently on most people’s radar as the successor to Todd Gurley on the Rams. His current ADP of 86 and ranking of 113 shows me that his value is currently upside down and he should be avoided in drafts. The only reason to take him might be as a late round handcuff for Gurley, and that’s if you can get him at a more reasonable spot in the late 11^th or 12^th rounds. Henderson will come along, but let’s not ship Todd Gurley out of town just yet.

Seattle Seahawks

What’s changed since last year? The Seahawks let free agent RB Mike Davis walk, which should aid in clearing up their muddy backfield from last season. Chris Carson (ADP 51, RB21) has a clear path to the #1 spot, with Rashaad Penny (ADP 81, RB33) getting an increased role – I expect this to be a RBBC offense in no time. I also don’t expect either guy to really run away with a bulk of the carries, unless the other one is out with injury. The Seahawks also added one of the most hyped WRs in the draft, DK Metcalf, whom we’ll touch on in a moment. Needless to say, this should provide a boost to the passing game.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? For me, the guy to watch in Seattle is David Moore. Sure, they drafted a new WR, but Moore averaged over 17 yards per reception last season and is now in his third year in the offense. He should have a more active role with Doug Baldwin out of the picture and has a chance to really shine early before Metcalf can establish himself in the offense. His ADP of 286 tells me that he’s basically being ignored by drafters, so he’s available as a flyer at the end of deeper drafts.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? There’s no sleeper recommendations to draft on the Seahawks. Their main players, Lockett, Carson, Wilson and Penny are all being drafted around their rankings, and everyone else worthy of a flier will be available on the waiver wire.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s no sure-fire studs on this team. Russell Wilson is the only one who comes closest, and he’s being drafted towards the end of the 9^th round currently. I’m worried that he’s only cracked 4000 yards in two different seasons, and has never eclipsed 35 passing TDs. He does run the ball a lot, though he ran the ball only 67 times last season, a career low, and had no TDs on the ground. His redeeming stat is that he’s never missed a game in his career. I guess I just gave you all the reasons why their best player is still not a fantasy stud.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? I’ve mentioned him a few times now, but David Moore is going to be the hot waiver wire pickup from the Seahawks. Keep an eye out for him early, though if DK Metcalf has a hot start, it’s likely to keep Moore buried on the depth chart. You can also watch for Nick Vannett at TE, the most likely candidate from a really sad bunch of fantasy TEs on the team.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Seahawks spent their second round pick on DK Metcalf, a guy who perhaps had the most hype before the draft and then saw his stock really fall during the days leading into the draft. He was finally taken on the second day and is currently listed as a starting WR on their depth chart. His ADP of 112 (WR43) and Rank of 151 really have me hesitant to recommend taking him, as I really don’t see any value in picking him. I do expect him to be fantasy relevant, considering he’s replacing Doug Baldwin.

San Francisco 49ers

What’s changed since last year? Lots have changed for the 49ers! Jimmy Garoppolo is back, one year after tearing his ACL in late September 2018. Based on the QB play that the 49ers got out of Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard last season, having Garoppolo back could rocket their offense to a top 10 spot in the league. The 49ers also acquired Tevin Coleman, who is slated to be the starting RB. This is an offense that showed some huge signs last year and is finally ready to move forward with healthy, first option starters at QB and RB.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Dante Pettis is a 2^nd year guy who is most poised to have a big break-out season, though his hype is starting to be real all over the internet. His ADP is currently 80 and his consensus ranking is 77, so as a mid-rounder, he has a very high ceiling. Since he really has no rapport with Garoppolo, there is the reality that he does have a low floor, but signs so far in camp have been very positive for Pettis. He’s very likely to keep Marquise Goodwin at bay and will at least start the season ahead of the two rookie WRs that the 49ers drafted.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Nobody on the 49ers really has proper sleeper value, though I like where you can get Deebo Samuel (ADP 191, WR60) and Jalen Hurd (No ADP) – both rookies. They’re flyers in deep drafts and will definitely be drafted in dynasty formats.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? George Kittle, if you’re not reaching for him, could be your ticket to the fantasy postseason. His ADP of 29 (TE2) and rank of 23 even shows that he’s got a bit of value and I’d endorse taking him pretty much anywhere in the third round, if there’s no one else you like available right there (he’s ranked right next to Antonio Brown, I know who I feel more confident in).

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Since Garoppolo has been out for basically an entire season, the WR core for the 49ers is rather up in the air. Marquise Goodwin (ADP 219, WR67) as well as the rookies Samuel and Hurd are all guys who should be available on the waiver wire. Whoever does start to click with Garoppolo is likely to be gone, perhaps before the season even starts, so keep a close eye on these three guys.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The aforementioned Deebo Samuel, 2^nd round pick, and Jalen Hurd, 3^rd rounder, both will be looking to make their way onto the field this season. Samuel made a highlight reel worthy 45-yard catch over a defender in the first preseason game to set up a TD. Of course, Jalen Hurd would not be outdone and found the end zone twice in the same game. The future is looking good for this rookie combo and they should both find plenty of playing time in what looks like it will be a WR rotation. Once one or both of them gets established, they will certainly be fantasy relevant.

Arizona Cardinals

What’s changed since last year? Is everything a valid answer? Because nearly everything is different for the Arizona Cardinals. They have a new coach, Kliff Kingsbury, a new QB, Kyler Murray, and a hot rookie WR, Andy Isabella. They also got rid of JJ Nelson. The only recognizable parts of the offense are Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, though some people with deeper teams already have their eyes on Christian Kirk as well. Most importantly, the play caller and the signal caller are both new and this offense should look completely different than last year’s.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Christian Kirk is a 2^nd year WR who was drafted in the 2^nd round in 2018. He seems to be a pick to click for many pundits. He had 68 targets last season in 12 games, so over a full season with a bit of a boost, it’s completely reasonable to expect him to get at least 100 targets. The Cardinals were 29^th in the league in pass attempts, a number that’s bound to get a lot better with Kingsbury’s air raid offense. Kirk has an ADP of 77 (WR32) and is a very solid mid round pick up as the first WR off your bench, with potential to be a WR2.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? This is basically a brand new offense this season, so there’s not a lot of options yet. Johnson, Fitz, Kirk and Murray are all being drafted at or near their expected value. There’s nobody I would recommend drafting from the Cardinals as a sleeper.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s about to be a David Johnson renaissance in the desert. Johnson is currently at ADP 5 (RB5), Rank 5 and is basically being placed just outside the tier 1 RBs, but still ahead of any other position players on the board. I know you aren’t going to get great value for Johnson, but his production in a brand new offense that should know how to use an extremely talented and versatile player is too good to pass up. Johnson will be a stud this year, and considering the RB position is top-heavy, he’s the last man on the top that’s worth that early first round pick.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Andy Isabella has an ADP and rank of over 200, so he’s likely to be available on the waiver wire early in the season. Look for him to hook up with fellow rookie Kyler Murray as they try to develop a rapport for when the team needs to eventually replace Larry Fitzgerald. I would also keep an eye on Ricky Seals-Jones at TE since that position is so hard to pin down a top 10 guy there.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Well, just the first overall pick in the 2019 draft, Kyler Murray. Murray should be starting in week 1 and has already looked good in his first preseason game. He went an efficient 6 of 7 passing for 44 yards before exiting early, as is tradition in week 1 of the preseason. Murray will be the starter all year, and like most rookie starters at QB, is very unlikely to finish as a top 10 guy, but will be relevant as a streaming and backup option, as well as in 2-QB leagues. Andy Isabella was taken in the 2^nd round by the Cardinals, because when you get yourself a Lamborghini, you find some sweet accessories to go along with it. Isabella has a tougher road to regular playing time, but he should find his way on the field for a significant amount of targets this season and will be fantasy relevant by the middle of the year.

Here's three games with interesting fantasy matchups that you can use to help make your lineup decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Let’s try this one more time, shall we. Last week I predicted that the Saints would be giving up a lot of points to the Cowboys, and the entire game featured one touchdown and 5 field goals. I do, however, have more faith in the new Bucs offense than the new-ish Cowboys one. Tampa has scored 96 points in the last 10 quarters of football. Jameis Winston only has one turnover during that time and WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are putting up huge numbers. Of course you’re starting them, but I think you need to get Jameis Winston in your lineup as well, since the Saints are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs.

I also think that Ronald Jones is a guy you can fire up. His snap % has gone from 12 to 31 to 49 in the last 3 weeks and he had 20 touches in last week’s game. On the other side, Tampa is in the top 10 giving up points to opposing QBs and WRs, but with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I’m still only starting Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals -  Two teams and 8 games between them and nary a win in sight. The Cards did sniff it in Week 1 with a tie, but these guys are a combined 0-7-1. Both teams lost by 3 scores last week, and at this point it’s just about pride. Let’s start with the Cardinals RB David Johnson, who has a spectacular matchup this week – basically guaranteed double digit points in a standard league. How can I say this? Well in 4 games, the Bengals have had 7 RBs score at least 13 points against them, again, standard scoring. Those 7 RBs are basically averaging 100 yards and a TD each. This should open things up for Kyler Murray and he will likely find Larry Fitzgerald early and often. Fitz will be boosted by the absence of Christian Kirk. Andy Isabella will see more work, but it’ll be on the outside, according the Kliff Kingsbury.

Regardless, the Cardinals run far more 4-WR sets than the rest of the league and there will be a lot of mouths to feed on offense, so I only like Fitzgerald and Johnson as solid fantasy starts, but they should be tremendous against the crappy Bengals. I also like Tyler Eifert for the Bengals, as the Cardinals have given up an absurd about of points to opposing tight ends. The Cardinals are giving up over 19 points per game to opposing TEs, while the next closest team is giving up only 12. This is historically bad, start Eifert!

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Traditionally, this is a defensive struggle, but that’s not likely on Sunday. The Ravens have given up over 500 yards of offense the last two weeks. The Steelers finally figured out their offense as led by Mason Rudolph, and the name of the game is efficiency. The Steelers are in the top 10 for most points against at WR and RB while Baltimore is in the top 11 of each of those stats. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to yards given up. The Steelers gave up 85 points in the first 3 weeks and the Ravens have given up 73 in just the last two! This is shaping up to be a solid fantasy matchup for both sides.

For the Steelers, I like James Conner of course, though his available may be up in the air, so keep an eye on injury reports. Jaylen Samuels proved very valuable and could have a huge role if Conner doesn’t play. Both Conner and Samuels had 8 targets and 10 carries, so they’ve both got value as starters, especially in a PPR league. Juju has to get involved sooner or later, so keep him in this week because it’s clear that the Steelers still love him. I also like Diontae Johnson if you’ve got bye week or injury troubles. 6 targets and 6 catches in an offense with lots of short passes is a good sign, especially in a PPR league.

For the Ravens, I like Lamar Jackson to continue to dominate, and hell, he’s the #1 fantasy player so far this year, so of course you’re starting him. Even when the team is losing, he finds a way to put up those garbage points. Last week, Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown did not put up the big numbers you want to see, but they both had lots of targets and that will continue all year long. Start them both along with Mark Ingram and don’t be surprised if both teams put up over 30 points in this division matchup.