Well we are 5 weeks into gambling season, and results have been bleak. All we can do is forget the past and use that second mortgage wisely going forward to hit the jackpot! This week we are going with a QB/WR stack with two of the top dogs this year, making a play based on historical precedence and otherwise taking value where available. Good luck Gamblers!
QB - Andy Dalton, CIN - $7,600 at BUF: Dalton is averaging over 300 yards and 2 TDs per game so far this year and he is matched up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in week 6. Great play for a decent price.
RB - Arian Foster, HOU - $8,500 at JAC: It looks like Foster is finally healthy and gets a tasty match up against a Jaguars team that just allowed Doug Martin to run all over them while scoring 3 TDs in the process.
RB - LeGarrette Blount, NE - $6,500 at IND: Looking back on recent Patriots and Colts games there seems to be one constant and that is Blount putting up monster performances. The stars seem aligned on this one as Dion Lewis popped up on the injury report mid-week and is questionable to play which would put Blount in line for more touches.
WR - A.J. Green, CIN - $8,100 at BUF: Stack play with Dalton to raise the point ceiling using one of the best receivers in the league.
WR - Emmanuel Sanders, DEN - $7,900 at CLE: Not sure what's going on with the Denver offense, but with Demaryius Thomas bunged up and a non-existent running game I like the odds of Sanders coming away with a big game.
WR - Kendall Wright, TEN - $5,800 vs. MIA: Wright recently expressed frustration with his involvement in the offense which should be well received as he is the best play maker they have. Look for big play potential here as the Dolphins are allowing the 4th worst average yards per reception in the league.
TE - Antonio Gates, SD - $5,500 at GB: Gates was dominant in his first game back from suspension posting over 90 yards and 2 TDs. San Diego will need to score to keep up with the Packers which means he should get plenty of opportunity to score.
K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE - $5,100 at IND: Rolling with the kicker that scores the most points week in and week out.
DEF - Broncos, DEN - $5,000 at CLE: Decent match up for a white hot defense.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14 Fantasy Points
Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.
7 Wins in a Row
The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season). Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.
27 Carries
A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore. The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?
1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards
The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards. The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.
604 Points
The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.