Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Well, this week we have to sit tons of fantasy players from the Seahawks, Brocos, Cardinals and Bengals. You GET to sit your Rams and Browns...just think of it that way. Anyways, here's 10 things to look for while you become one with your couch on Sunday.

- The Bears and Packers are back at it. The oldest and most played (188 games!) rivalry in the NFL. History will take a back seat this weekend though, because all we care about is fantasy football. Look for Aaron Rodgers to bounce back from a poor game last week and find Randall Cobb for at least one TD. Jay Cutler will also continue to struggle against the Pack, he's 1-9 career against them and his favorite target is banged up.

- Make sure you keep an eye on the inactive list. For the second week in a row, Arian Foster will be a game-time decision. If he doesn't go, it'll be Alfred Blue again, but I think if Foster starts, he's going to be a very sketchy play. He seems to do this every year, and doesn't hit his stride until later...or he's done for the season.

- Steve Smith is playing his old team, the Carolina Panthers, whom he spent 13 years with. Their parting wasn't totally a happy one, and while I'm sure that they will reconcile in order to make a metric shitton of money after he retires, for now he wants nothing more than to crush them. Smith is having a bit of a resurgence this year, already with 18 rec for 290 yds and 1 td, he is a must start against his old team.

- Andrew Luck is leading the league in fantasy points this season, and it appears as if he's taken the step into the elite tier of QB's (most of whom are not playing their best to start the year). With 80.88 pts, he's even ahead of Eli Manning, who had 33.1 points on Thursday night. This week, expect the Colts to roll this week and Andrew Luck to continue to impress.

- The Dolphins and Raiders are playing in London this week, the first of three games to be held in London this year. Coach Philbin seems to be losing the locker room, and with a big road trip on their plate, this could be trouble for the Dolphins. Lucky for them, they play the hapless Raiders. This game is going to go to whoever is the least jet-lagged.

- The Steelers run game last week was damn impressive, and while the now-famous kick in the face wasn't by a RB, it totally represents what their run game has looked like lately. The combination of Bell and Blount will smoke the Bucs and I predict that they combine for over 200 yards as the Steelers roll easily. This is a classic start all your Steelers, sit all your Bucs kind of game.

- Cecil Shorts is back! Everybody drink five. The Jaguars, however, are not back. They have looked better this year, and rookie Blake Bortles does look promising, but they are going to get moon-pounded in San Diego. Hope for some garbage TD's for Shorts and drink five again.

- The Falcons are coming off of a moon-pounding of their own, at the expense of the Bucs last week. This also means that Atlanta has had an extra few days of rest and planning for the Vikings, who have a rookie QB of their own going, not to mention a few other distractions. I don't expect much fantasy production outside of Asiata from the Vikings, but plenty of points will be had by the Falcons.

- The 49ers will get a chance to redeem themselves from failing to win on opening night at their new stadium...but they will fail. The Eagles are an impressive 3-0 so far this year, and the 49ers have looked vulnerable. This will be the game that LeSean McCoy breaks out, even though the 49ers are one of the best against RB's.

- Sunday night's game is going to feature a 2-1 team that is playing at home that is a Vegas underdog to a team that is 1-2. I don't think this is the wrong call either. The Saints have struggled on the road at times, but Drew Brees is 3-0 as a Saint in Dallas, with 9 TD's. This is the game where Brees returns to form. I saw Brian Billick predict that Brees will break the single game yardage record of 540 yards. I don't know if that's even remotely possible, but it sure would be cool to see. Just as long as I don't have to play against him.

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Both of us said that Ryan would go over 21 points, and he did! 22.10 points total with 310 yards passing, 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to PIT. I think most people expected a little better out of Ryan, but without the services of Julio Jones, you should be very happy with the 22 points he did get.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is aMF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Dave said he'd stay under 14 points, I said he'd go over 14. Seriously, Dave? You bet against Demaryius Thomas and you drink the consequences! Thomas had a ho-hum 6 receptions for 123 yards and 1 TD in the Broncos win at San Diego. While Peyton Manning didn't exactly light the world on fire, he is pointed back in the right direction and faces the Bengals on Monday night in week 16.

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenomKeenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Dave went with the over here, and I stayed under. Floyd had a typical game of 7 targets and 3 receptions, but he could only turn that into 34 yards and did not find the end zone. Floyd might have some increased value for week 16 as there have been whispers that Keenan Allen will land on the IR. Either way, the matchup with the 49ers is not a tempting one. Dave drinks five!

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI –22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

We both said he'd go over 12 points, and while Bell had a decent game, he did not go over. His 62 yards on 15 carries and 4 receptions for 41 yards only nets him 10.30 points, which isn't bad for an RB2, but doesn't meet our projection, so we drink! Bell gets the Bears in Week 16, so fire him up against the most turbulent team in the league.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Both of us went with the trend here (Dave actually did with every one of them) and technically, we win! Vereen had 5 rushing yards, a TD and 12 yards receiving. He's clearly not in the mix enough to be fantasy worthy, and his 7.70 points keep him just below the line we had set. His 7 total touches in this game make him a must-sit, even with a decent matchup against the Jets.

Finally, we bet on a bomber for the next show. I bet that my guy, Donte Moncrief, would score over 8 points. He finished the game with 0 points on 4 targets. Good times, drink up, Dave!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Andrew Luck: Wk 13 vs WAS - 33.80 pts, Wk 14 @ CLE - 25.46 pts, Wk 15 vs HOU - 16.28 pts

It's the last week of fantasy football, so who cares about the little guys? We want to know about the best of the best, the guys who got us here! Luck has been trending down, technically. He's averaging just over 25 points per game on the season, and last week against a mediocre Houston defense, he only managed to get his team in the end zone twice on 13 possessions. This week he goes to Dallas, a team that needs this win a lot more than the Colts do. We'll set Luck's line at his average points for the season - 25 points.

Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 13 @ KC - 7.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF - 6.90 pts, Wk 15 @ SD - 5.30 pts

Sanders is another guy who you are generally starting if you have made it this far, but his numbers are starting to be alarming. Not only is he trending down, but he is consistently low while doing it. In fact, he's on a slow decent for the last 6 games. This may be proof that there actually isn't room for multiple receivers if the Broncos' passing game isn't firing on all cylinders. This is doubly true when the running game is working as well as it is right now. So, is this the Broncos finding another way to win that they're going to stick with, or are they going to bounce back somehow against the team that gives up the 2nd fewest points to opposing WR's. Sanders is averaging 12.5 per game this year and the Bengals give up about 17 pts per game to all WR's. Let's just set the line at our base we agreed upon last week of 10 points.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Wk 13 @ JAX - 9.40 pts, Wk 14 @TEN - 19.90 pts, Wk 15 vs WAS - 30.30 pts

Beckham is trending up, what a surprise. Let me take this moment to gush over his numbers. Over only 10 games, he has 71 receptions on 97 targets, catching 73.2% of the passes thrown his way. He has 972 yards and 9 touchdowns. This makes him the 2nd best player in terms of points per game (15.27). Beckham has been awesome this year, and while the Rams seem scary, their pass defense isn't that great. As long as Manning stays upright, Beckham should be ok. We'll set his target right as his average of 15 points.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts, Wk 14 vs PIT - 6.70 pts, Wk 15 @ CLE - 27.20 pts

Hill is a product of the work he gets, plain and simple. In 5 games with 15 or more carries, he has at least 15 points in all of those games. 1 point per touch is a damn nice average if you ask me. Hill is once again trending up after Giovani Bernard returned from injury, but was ineffective. It appears that Hill is slated to be the starter down the stretch, which should mean lots of work for him, but it's not guaranteed. 2 questions - Do you start him over Gio, and will he break his season average of 11 points?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 16 and we will recap the results next week.

Well, it's time we all moved on from super injury Sunday and get down to the business of setting up your week 9 lineups. This week, Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City and Seattle are all on bye. This is the only week of the year with 6 teams on bye, so this is as bad as it gets.

Tyrod Taylor should return to the lineup this week, and he deserves to return to yours as well, with a decent matchup against Miami, whom they beat up on earlier this season. This time they're playing at home and the Bills should rebound nicely after a bye week. Andrew Luck who is also at home this week, ought to take a seat for this week. After seeing what the Broncos did last week to Aaron Rodgers, you don't want to start Luck.

If you're in need of a flex play, Ryan Mathews should find some running room against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night (if he’s healthy). He's looked like a better fit for the Philly offense (and has the most rushing yards on the team), it's only a matter of time before Chip Kelly admits it. Melvin Gordon, despite lots of touches, continues to do nothing with them. Leave him on your bench this week in favor of Mathews or Matt Jones.

Don't worry about last week's disappearing act by James Jones - that Denver defense is just special. Even against the Panthers, I expect the Pack to return to form, including Jones. Brandon LaFell is starting to return to form, but he needs another week to work the kinks out, so keep him out of your lineup until next week.

Julius Thomas is a guy who has worked out most of his kinks, and after a bye week, should be a fine TE1 option. This is despite their matchup with the Jets. Start him over this week's hot pickup, Heath Miller. Even though Ben is back, I expect him to spread the ball out to his receivers more than having to dump it off to Miller.

Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

- Kirk Cousins was a top fantasy football QB over the last half of the 2015 season. Looks like he's trying to duplicate that effort again. At 349 passing yards per game with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio, Cousins is making it happen. For most fantasy leagues it's past the trade deadline, but if you're a Cousins owner you should be starting him until he proves otherwise.

- Thomas Rawls was on waiver wire lists everywhere last week. Finally healthy and ready to resume his role on the Seattle offense, he was picked up in most leagues where he was not already owned. It was assumed that he would slowly take carries away from rookie C.J. Prosise, but after Prosise suffered a scapula injury and Seattle dropped their black sheep former starting RB Christine Michael, Rawls is thrust once again into the spotlight (where he performed so well last season). I would expect more of the same this season.. Rawls may take a few lucky teams to the championship.

- Andrew Luck may not start this week as he's in the league's concussion protocol. What will this do the offensive gems from the Colts like Moncrief, Hilton and Allen? From my perspective, it gives them a bit of a hit. If Luck does miss Week 12, Scott Tolzein will start and his impact is not very clear (limited sample size) but it's a definite downgrade from Luck. On the plus side, this may actually be a boost to Frank Gore, who the Colts will likely lean on.

- A.J. Green went down early in the Bengals' game, clutching his leg in obvious pain. After what was feared to be a severely torn hamstring, the latest news is that it was just a strain (partial tear) which should only keep him sidelined for a few weeks instead of the rest of the season. But with all of the injuries to other Bengals' players as well - is it worth it to even bring him back in what could be a lost season? My fantasy teams would sure love to have him back out on the field!

- Stefon Diggs did not practice on Tuesday and that should be a concern to both his owners and also to those who may have or be picking up Adam Thielen from the waiver wire. He went for 65 yards and a touchdown this past week and has been productive in general but much more so when Stefon Diggs has been out (Week 5 vs. HOU - 127 yards and a touchdown). In other news, do the Vikings turn it back around at the end of the season? They play Detroit this week to determine the King in the North.

- David Johnson has 30 less receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins. Yep. That's a thing.

- Jordan Howard has been a welcome surprise from a Bears' offense that has otherwise been blown up from both injury and general lack of talent and coaching ability (that last one is questionable, but there is still a strong possibility that there are changes made there). He's rushed for over 100 yards on average these past 3 games. Now with Cutler and Miller out (in addition to Jeffery), will his production go up, or down? I think we'll see some kind of rotation there going forward which may not be a great thing for fantasy owners.

- LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb and the medical staff was unable to pop it back in for McCoy to go back out in the game last week - signs point to him starting this week but injuries like this one can sometimes cause players to be limited or held out. Mike Gillislee again becomes a good flex play regardless of whether or not McCoy plays in Week 12.

- Giovani Bernard tore his ACL at the end of the game last week, which puts Jeremy Hill in the forefront of a team that no longer has its major offensive assets available. What are the odds that Hill's fantasy production increases? Pretty good.

- Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles both suffered injuries last week (knee and ribs, respectively), which allowed for rookie RB Wendell Smallwood to step into the driver's seat. He performed fairly well, running for 48 yards and catching 4 passes for 31 yards. Smallwood will have a role this week regardless of whether or not Sproles suits up, as Mathews' MCL will likely leave him sidelined.

- Jay Cutler suffered a torn labrum in the game on Sunday, which may land him on IR. The Bears' quarterback situation does not lead to any fantasy relevance, but this will curb any thoughts of playing Bears' offensive options besides Jordan Howard.

- T.J. Yeldon went down with an ankle injury, which should cement Chris Ivory as the lead back in Jacksonville.. that should lead to more fantasy points, but it certainly wasn't a great omen when Ivory fumbled just after Yeldon exited the game. Yikes!