Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 is upon us. By now you should have your team drafted and it's all about picking the right guys to fill out the lineup and get off to that all-important 1-0 start. Before the bye weeks hit, the strategy should be pretty simple: Start your studs. Unfortunately, injuries may already be derailing that if you own(ed) Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, Mike Evans, Tre Mason, or any other player who is out or questionable for week one. Perhaps there is a rookie who could fill that void and help you get in the win column. Each week I'll break down the rookie matchups, listing which guys you should start, which ones are borderline options, and which ones you should keep planted on the pine. I'll also include a couple of sleepers each week for deep leagues who could also be cheap options for those who play daily or weekly fantasy games. So, without further ado...
(Note: Both quarterback projections are for 2 QB leagues. Both should be sitting in 1 QB format)
Rookies to Start:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Famous Jameis gets one of his easiest matchups of the year in week one. The Titans have been a mess for a couple of years now, and most of their offseason additions will help on the offensive side of the ball, not defense. The Titans did bring in long time Steelers D coordinator Dick LeBeau, and he's traditionally made life hell on rookie signal-callers with his aggressive blitz schemes, but I doubt he has the personnel to wreak the havoc he's used to. I'd project Winston for about 225 yards and 2 TDs, which should make him a solid start in 2QB leagues (don't start him if you only get one). This projection takes a minor hit if Mike Evans is a no-go.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Things have been kind of quiet on the Amari front through training camp. There was one great highlight of him burning Patrick Peterson in a preseason game on a comeback route, but otherwise there hasn't been much buzz. He's been flying a little under the radar. That changes on Sunday when the Raiders get to break out their new toy. Derek Carr will funnel Oakland's new #1 WR with targets, and I expect at least 7 catches in a stellar debut. He should be especially solid in PPR formats.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): The Falcons' defense wasn't very good against WRs a year ago, and there haven't been any substantial improvements made. J-Matt is number one in the pecking order, but he'll see a lot of Atlanta's top CB Desmond Trufant, and Zach Ertz's status is still up in the air. I'd expect a lot of volume to come Nelson's way. He has potential to be a solid WR2 in PPR leagues this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): Tampa Bay is back to running Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 defense, which is a bend-but-don't-break scheme featuring a lot of zone pass defense. If there's one thing Mariota showed in college, it's that he knows how to get the ball to guys in space, and there will be some soft spots in that zone. Unfortunately for Mariota, I'd expect a pretty conservative gameplan from Whisenhunt in the first start of his career. His running ability gives him top-15 QB potential this week, but I'd have to be pretty underwhelmed by my QB2 to roll the dice on Mariota. The Bucs allowed an NFL-low 78 rushing yards to opposing QBs last season.
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers have an imposing front 7 on paper, but they were just a middling defense vs. RBs a year ago. The Jaguars' offense is ascending, but the o-line still has a little work to do. Yeldon makes an intriguing flex option this week, but I'd be happy with 75 yards and a TD from him in his debut. If you think you have better options than that, play them. I will say, I do like Yeldon better this week than...
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Let's not kid ourselves, you likely drafted Melvin Gordon to play him. He's probably your RB2, but he's only a 2-down back. He will continue to give way to Danny Woodhead in passing situations, and there might be a lot of those this week. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest RB points last year, and yes they lost Ndamukong Suh, but they did replace him with Haloti Ngata, who was an integral part of the Ravens' defense last year. The Ravens allowed the fewest RB fantasy points. I'm not saying Ngata isn't a dropoff from Suh, just that he isn't as much of one as you might think. Temper your expectations for Gordon this week. Anything over 50 total yards would be a promising debut.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): The Eagles did give up 20 TDs to opposing RBs last season, but the front 7 was still stout, allowing just 3.5 ypc and just the 11th most fantasy points to RBs despite allowing them the 4th most TDs. Kyle Shanahan should improve the Falcons' running game, but week one could be a dicey one. I'd expect 12-15 touches for Coleman, and he has big play speed, but you'd basically be hoping he breaks a long one or finds pay dirt if you start him.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 1: @SD): After Joique Bell missed the entire preseason, I'd expect a decent sized role for Abdullah in week one. He should be solid flex option in PPR leagues, and I'd expect him to pull in 5+ receptions. The Lions know what a special playmaker AA can be, and they should look to get him involved. Don't go crazy here, we're still likely only talking about 10-12 touches, but there is upside in PPR formats.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Johnson was just cleared to resume practice Wednesday after suffering a concussion in the only game that he played in the preseason. Yes the Browns only have 2 running backs on the roster after trading away Terrance West, but I'd expect the bulk of the work to go to Isaiah Crowell. Johnson looks to be the 3rd down and receiving back for the Browns, but only 3 teams allowed fewer catches by RBs last season than the Jets, and new head coach Todd Bowles's Arizona team allowed just 3 more RB receptions than those Jets.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. NO): The Saints were among the worst in the NFL against RBs a season ago, and things didn't get better when they released Junior Galette and lost Curtis Lofton in the offseason. Unfortunately for Johnson, there's no real telling what his role in the offense will be. He looked to be the clear number 2 to Ellington early on in preseason, but the addition of Chris Johnson has muddled the picture somewhat, especially after CJ looked good in the final preseason game. This is a situation best left avoided for week 1.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 1: @Jax.): The Panthers still won't commit to Funchess as a starter despite the Kelvin Benjamin injury. They have him listed with the second team, and will likely employ a conservative gameplan against a Jags team that was sieve-like against the run last year. With that said, I think the Jacksonville defense quietly came together late last year and will bump up to the middle of the pack of NFL defenses this season. I expect Funchess to disappoint in week one. Unless you're in a pretty deep league, you should have better options this week.
WR Breshad Perriman, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): He seems unlikely to play this week, so that should make the decision easier on you, but after limited practice time in camp, he's a poor bet to produce even if he's in the lineup. It's not a good week for him to be hurt. This should be a pass-happy week for the Ravens as they try to keep pace with Denver.
WR Devante Parker, MIA (Wk. 1: @Was.): I love Parker's upside this year, and it's very encouraging from a health standpoint that DeVante played at all in the final preseason game, but I expect him to be eased into regular season action with Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings playing more snaps early on. I could regret this recommendation given who the 'Phins are playing, but I don't think Miami will need much help from Parker to vanquish the Redskins.
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND (Wk. 1: @Buf.): At this point, the Colts' wide receiver depth and gameplan are way too uncertain to play Dorsett. All indications are that he beat out Donte Moncrief for the 3rd WR spot (Moncrief is listed as the starting return man), but we still don't know for sure if the offseason talk of the Colts running more 3 & 4 WR sets and less 2 TE sets was just talk or not. There's a very real chance Dorsett puts up a goose egg.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): I know, the Ravens have to throw to somebody, why not Williams? While I think he's easily the best rookie TE in this class, at 21-years old, the sheer physicality of playing tight end in the NFL will take him some getting used to. There's a reason rookie tight ends typically don't produce in year one. Look for Crockett Gillmore to open the season at the number one TE, and for Williams to work his way into that role as the season progresses.
Deep League & DFS Sleepers:
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Things could get really ugly this year for the Redskins. They'll be playing from behind a lot. Alf Morris is essentially a zero in the passing game, and his yards per carry average is 1.25 yards lower with anyone other than RG3 under center. Add in that the coaching staff has been singing Jones's praises, and Morris is in the final year of his contract, and it adds up to the torch being passed to Jones before the end of the year. I think he'll have a big role before that happens, and it starts week one. Look for close to a 50-50 split of touches between Alf and Jones, and look for Jones to be more impressive with them.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): DGB has impressed thus far in camp and the preseason, and the Titans are carrying just 4 wide receivers on the roster into the opener (Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, Justin Hunter & DGB). Green-Beckham is easily the toughest cover of the group with his freakish size and athleticism, and I don't think anyone on the Bucs is big enough to cover him. He's the best bet of any Titans' pass catcher to score a TD in the opener.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps. Week one is always an unpredictable one for the rookies, so play it safe where you can, and go get a week one win. Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun...It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was full of explosive performances from some expected and some unexpected places. A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb and Jamaal Charles are supposed to blow up on a regular basis. Devonta Freeman, Joseph Randle and Rishard Matthews are not. Some rookies got into the act as well...Amari Cooper cleared the century mark again, as did Thomas Rawls and Karlos Williams on the ground. Williams also found the end zone for the 3rd consecutive week (the only player in the league to do so). Hopefully the big days in week 3 worked in your favor, but even if not, lets see what we can do about getting the right rookies in the lineup for week 4...
Rookies to Start:
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Williams finally got double-digit touches with LeSean McCoy hampered by a balky hammy, and he didn't disappoint, racking up over 100 yards with a TD on just 12 carries. He now boasts a ludicrous 7.75 ypc average for the season on 24 carries and should get the start against a defense that has allowed over 18 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. As long as McCoy sits, Karlos is a rock solid RB2 this week with RB1 upside.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Gordon hasn't had a role in the red zone, but he continues to run for respectable yardage totals and has his most favorable matchup of the season-to-date. The Browns are allowing about 5 yards per carry and a league-worst 158 rush yards per game so far. Gordon should even have a reasonable chance to break a long TD. Cleveland has given up 4 rushes of 20 or more yards so far, 2 of which went for 40+. Fire him up as an RB2 this week.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 4: @Chi.): In case you need any reason from me to know you should play Cooper this week, the Bears allow the 4th-most WR fantasy points per game in the league, and have allowed averages of 12.6 receptions, 153 yards, and 2.3 TDs per game to opposing WRs. I would expect Cooper to be good for at least half of that, and he could have WR1 upside in a cake matchup.
Borderline Rookies:
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 4: @Ind.): After last week, there's obviously reason for pause before firing up Yeldon considering that the Colts' high powered offense could have the Jags playing from behind again. With that said, Indy's defense has given us very little reason to trust their ability to stop the run, allowing 18 RB fantasy points per game and 4 RB scores in 3 games. I'd say there's a 50/50 shot that Yeldon gets his first TD this week. He's more flex play than RB2, but he could have a nicer day than expected.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 4: @SD): San Diego has been absolutely shredded by opposing run games the past 2 weeks, and Crowell was back to being inefficient last week against Oakland. The Chargers have allowed over 500 total yards and 5 TDs to opposing RBs in just 3 games, and the Browns did finally involve Duke in the passing game last week. I expect him to factor back in to the rush attempt mix a little bit this week as well. I have a feeling he comes up with a solid PPR-Flex game this week.
WR Ty Montgomery, GB (Wk. 4: @SF): The 49ers have been just as bad as the Bears in terms of WR fantasy points allowed. After Monday night, you'd expect there to be an increased focus from the defense to stop Randall Cobb, which should open things up for Montgomery and Jones. There is some risk here. Davante Adams might be able to play, which would kill Ty's value. Jeff Janis could run ahead of him due to the mental mistakes and silly penalties Montgomery committed against the Chiefs. Still, most signs point to him being the WR3 for GB this week, which should get him WR3 consideration in your lineup.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Car.): Last week wasn't particularly pretty for Jameis, and things don't get much easier this week. The Panthers' DBs have been a nightmare on opposing WRs, especially Josh Norman, and Jameis may struggle to get going this week. Duplicating last week's stat line is about all you can expect this week. Anything more would be a nice bonus.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): While it was a great sign to see Jones running ahead of Alfred Morris last week, this matchup doesn't set up particularly well for Jones, and Morris isn't exactly going to vanish either. The Eagles have allowed just 3.1 ypc, and have yet to allow a RB touchdown. The one place they've struggled is against RBs catching passes out of the backfield, but thus far, Chris Thompson has pretty much had that role to himself in the Redskins' backfield rotation. Jones is always a threat for a red zone TD, but I'd shy away this week if I have reasonable options.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 4: @Sea.): The Seahawks at home are just an opponent you don't want to play skill players against unless they are every week studs. When you have Matt Forte there, you leave him in and hope for the best. With Ameer Abdullah, a part-time player in a 3-back rotation? Not so much, even if he is the best talent of the trio. Seattle is yet to allow a TD to an opposing RB on the year. Abdullah should be avoided this week.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. StL.): The Rams defense looks daunting on paper, but they're vulnerable on the perimeter. Yes, Chris Johnson has looked good, but David has still been a factor in this offense. Unfortunately, it looks like Andre Ellington will be back this week. If for some reason Andre sits again, David has some value as a flex option, but his floor is scary low if he's fighting both CJ and AE for touches.
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 4: @Ari.): It was nice to see Gurley back on the field, even if the results weren't impressive. On the plus side, he did look healthy, but he gets a tough matchup this week. I believe he's close to being handed bellcow duties, but I don't think this is the week where it comes together. Arizona has been throttling teams so far, and if the Rams fall behind, I'd expect a fair amount of Benny Cunningham.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 4: @Was.): Agholor has been mostly invisible this season despite playing plenty of snaps. He was barely targeted at all last week, and if he were to put up even 4 catches and 50 yards this week in a plus matchup, it would be a pleasant surprise. You can do better.
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Dorsett found the end zone last weekend, but his volume hasn't been consistent enough to trust going forward. I still feel like the Colts want to get Andre Johnson more involved at some point (If Andre is still capable), and banking on another TD from a guy who is only going to see a few targets isn't often a recipe for success.
WRs Devin Smith & Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Mia.): The matchup seems ripe for the picking after Tyrod Taylor shredded the 'Fins on Sunday, but Eric Decker is likely to return this week and severely cut down on the snaps and targets this pair will see. If you had to pick one, Smith is the choice due to the threat of a long TD against a shaky secondary. With that said, I wouldn't want to play either in a season-long league.
WR Willie Snead, NO (Wk. 4: vs. Dal.): I like Snead a lot, but I'd like him a lot more if I was confident that Drew Brees was going to go back to being Drew Brees at some point. He's not quite the matchup nightmare that 6'6" Brandon Coleman is, but I would argue he's already got a better rapport with Brees and is the option the QB trusts more of the 2. The problem is that this offense just isn't very good right now. Even if Brees plays, I wouldn't feel good about playing Snead even in really deep leagues this week.
Deep League Sleepers & Cheap DFS Options:
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): It sounds like Marshawn Lynch should be fine and ready to roll for week 4, but keep an eye on the situation. If Lynch were to miss this one, it would be another plus matchup for a back that just put up over 100 yards in his first real action as a pro. The Lions have allowed over 130 ypg and 4 rushing TDs to RBs through 3 games. There are also some out there who feel that what we've seen so far is the beginning of the end for Beast Mode. If that's the case, Rawls would make a nice stash in case something happens, and should absolutely be owned in Dynasty formats. With Christine Michael and Robert Turbin gone, Rawls is the heir apparent in Seattle.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Oak.): Rumors have been rampant that the Bears are shopping Matt Forte, and if they move him, Langford would likely become the starter. He, like Rawls, is worth a speculative stash for the next few weeks in case Chicago does pull the trigger, but don't be surprised if the Bears look to get him more involved if they are actually planning a trade. The Raiders' run defense is nothing special, so Langford might surprise this week if he gets some work.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 4: @TB): Trust me, it's coming for Funchess. He still has just 4 catches through 3 games, but the Bucs are weak in the secondary. This should be another great opportunity for Funchess to make an impact if the Panthers let him. I wouldn't trust him in a season-long league, but he could be a pleasant surprise in DFS.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): The usage in the passing game still isn't where you'd like to see it to use him in regular leagues, but he has 2 return TDs in 3 games, and will be a solid WR3 in return yardage leagues before long. Detroit has allowed 22.3 points per game to opposing WRs, and after Doug Baldwin, very little of the WR target volume is spoken for. Lockett still has plenty of upside despite limited usage so far.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers 14 points per game allowed to opposing TEs is misleading. All 4 TDs they've given up to the tight end position occurred in week 1 against New England (3 to Gronk and 1 to Scott Chandler). They've been much better since then, but Williams will undoubtedly be a factor this week. He already set career bests last week with 3 catches on 7 targets for 44 yards. Most of that came in the second half after Crockett Gillmore went out with injury, and Gillmore isn't expected to play Thursday. Williams has sneaky TE1 upside based on volume alone.
That's it for week 4. If you have any questions or angry rants, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@shawn_foss). Hopefully this info helps you this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, we're coming off a week with plenty of surprises, plenty of injuries, and plenty of storylines. We may have seen the end of Peyton Manning's legendary career. We may have seen the beginning of the end of the Matt Forte era in Chicago. We also saw the Lions miraculously hold on to upset the Packers when GB's own holder blocked Mason Crosby's game-winning field goal try. In terms of the rookie crop, Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones were the heroes, while several others had respectable days as well. Let's take a look at what week 11 should have in store...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 11: @Bal.): The Ravens have been pretty good against opposing running backs, so this may be a week to fade Gurley in DFS games, but you certainly can't sit him in your year-long leagues. The Ravens have given up more than 81 rush yards to RBs in a game exactly twice this year. In those two games, they were absolutely gashed by Le'Veon Bell and Chris Johnson. Each gained over 120 yards and found the end zone. In their other 7 games, they've given up an average of 69 rushing yards per game and just one rushing score total. Don't be scared off by those numbers. Gurley has been a top-12 fantasy back in each of the past two games in poor on-paper matchups. He is the entire offense, especially with Case Keenum starting now, and he's still an RB1 until further notice.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): The biggest concern for Langford isn't the dangerous Denver defense, it's whether or not Matt Forte plays. If Forte is a go, that likely moves Langford to your bench. He's earned an increased workload when Forte returns, but with the Bears still clinging to their slim playoff hopes, I'd expect Forte to see the majority of touches if active. If Forte is out, however, I'd be willing to trust Langford again. The Broncos have been incredible against the pass, but there have been cracks in that defense against the run. Charcandrick West just put up a monster game against Denver on Sunday, and the Colts' RBs put up 21 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) on Denver the week before. Langford has been on an absolute roll, and he should be the focal point of the offense with Alshon doing battle with Aqib Talib on the outside. Langford should easily return RB2 value.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 11: @Det.): Amari's upside is impossible to sit this week. He also should be due for a TD this week if you buy into the whole 'he alternates games with and without a TD' thing. The Lions' pass defense has looked a little bit improved the past 2 weeks, allowing 27 total fantasy points to the Packers' and Chiefs' WRs in those weeks. They had allowed 26.2/per game in the previous 5 games. The Lions have had a better pass DVOA (Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistic, which measures defensive efficiency) against number 1 receivers than against number 2 guys, but they've been really burnable at home under the Ford Field roof. They've allowed at least 25 WR fantasy points in all 4 of their games there. Cooper should be fine this week, and is a safe WR2/3 in MoTown.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. GB): Diggs has shown his floor over the past two weeks, putting up lines of 3-42 and 2-46 with 10 rush yards. That is still a usable floor in deeper leagues, but you're typically looking for more from a starter. I expect the Vikings to have to throw a bit more this week, and Diggs should be noticeably more productive as a result. The Packers are one of the bottom-5 defenses in the league in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs. The floor remains 4-5 points in standard leagues, but I expect him to come in a bit closer to his ceiling this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Mariota goes from a dream matchup to a nightmare matchup, then back into the dream. The Jaguars have allowed 10 TD passes in their last 4 games to Hoyer, Tyrod, FitzMagic and Flacco after allowing 7 TDs in the first 5 games. Mariota's weapons will be limited with Justin Hunter done for the year and Kendall Wright likely out again, but Mariota will have QB1 upside with a pretty decent floor. The Jaguars have allowed 8 straight QBs to put up 15 or more fantasy points on them. It also appears that interim coach Mularkey is willing to let Mariota use his legs a bit, scheming in a few designed runs in week 10. That development only increases Mariota's value. He's a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week with upside for more.
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 11: @Phi.): The Eagles are 5th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, and Jameis has thrown 9 INTs 9 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the past 2 weeks. He has, however, kept his floor reasonable by scoring on the ground in 3 straight games. That floor should hold steady this week as Mike Evans should have his way with the Eagles' secondary. Philadelphia is the 3rd best team in the league in overall pass DVOA, but they are 31st in that stat against WR1s. They allow 100 yards per game to the top opposing WRs, and Evans has topped 125 in 3 of his last 4 games. Another big day from Evans should keep Jameis in the mid-to-high QB2 range even if he throws a pick or 2.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 11: @NE): Williams continues to defy the odds. His TD streak rolled on last week in a brutal matchup, and it's getting hard to bet against him doing it again. The Patriots run defense has allowed just 133 rushing yards total to RBs over the past 3 games, and Karlos will likely see about 6-10 touches in this game making him unlikely to find the end zone again this week. With that said, his results each week have defied logic. I mean, he has exactly 1 carry on the season from inside the opponent's 5-yard line, yet he's scored 7 TDs (5 rushing) in 6 games. He's sustaining the unsustainable. Feel free to trot him out there again if you want to roll the dice on him finding the end zone for a 7th straight game. Just know there's plenty of risk built in.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Justin Hunter has a fractured ankle and Kendall Wright is looks to be out again this week as well. That forces DGB into a starting role this week. His targets and production have been inconsistent so far, but his upside and the volume he's likely to see this week make him a WR3 option. Jacksonville has allowed 7 WR TDs in the past 4 games, and the only recievers who have logged a snap this year the Titans have healthy are Green-Beckham and Harry Douglas. I like DGB's chances of finding paydirt in a decent matchup.
Rookies to Sit:
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Yeldon was in a walking boot on Monday and was listed as questionable for this week. He shed the walking boot on Tuesday and said he expects to play despite the short week. Even if he does play Thursday, he's at best a low-upside flex option. The Titans' defense has really been coming together lately, and has allowed just 1 total RB touchdown in the past 4 games to go with just 71 rush yards per game in the past 3. The volume is still likely to be there for TJ, but I wouldn't expect more than 50-60 scoreless yards. Anything extra would be gravy.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Hopefully you aren't forced to play Gordon this week. The Chiefs have been strong against opposing RBs and Woodhead has consistently been the better fantasy back. If you throw out the one outlier game for the Chiefs' defense where the Bengals rushed for 4 TDs against them, KC has allowed just 10.4 RB points per game, which would be the best in the NFL. Considering Gordon hasn't topped 9 points all year or 5 points in the past 4 games, it's hard to expect much from Melvin this week.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Oak.): The Raiders' once stout RB defense has been crumbling lately. They've allowed 373 rushing yards and 3 TDs to opposing RBs in the past 2 games (mostly to Adrian Peterson and D'Angelo Williams), and they just lost Aldon Smith to suspension. The Smith news hurts their pass rush more than the run D, but it's a blow to the overall defense. None of that will matter against the Lions' rushing "attack." Detroit runs for just 67 yards a game, and Ameer Abdullah has just 6 carries in 2 games under new OC Jim Bob Cooter. There's no reason to play him this week.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Jones exploded last week, but don't chase last week's points here. There were actually some negative signs on Sunday as Alfred Morris out-touched Jones 18-14 and Jones played his lowest share of snaps in several weeks. There could be more strong weeks for Jones down the stretch, but this one probably won't be one of them. The Carolina RB defense has been much better since the return of inside linebacker Luke Kuechly. The Panthers allowed 67 fantasy points to RBs in the 3 games he missed, and just 83 in the 6 games he's played (a 9 points per game improvement). Add in that Washington figures to be playing from behind as a 7-point underdog, and it likely sets up for more Chris Thompson snaps. I'd avoid playing Jones this week.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Cobb was a healthy scratch in his first game after being activated from the IR, but Antonio Andrews might have done as much to help Cobb's playing time hopes as he could have done himself. Andrews rushed 11 times for 8 yards, reminding us that 'workhorse' is a title that likely shouldn't be associated with him. Cobb isn't a startable option this week, but if Andrews continues to struggle going forward, it will help Cobb see some touches sooner than later. He remains a deep league and dynasty stash.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Johnson is nearing the point where I almost don't have to mention him. He scored in double-digits in 4 of his first 5 games, but he's been a non-factor of late. He's scored just 5 points total in the past 4 games, and this week's big game with the Bengals isn't a spot where I'd expect that to change. He's firmly planted behind CJ2K and Ellington.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Crowder's decent PPR floor has remained in tact with DeSean Jackson back in action, and he even scored a TD in week 10, but this week could be a struggle. Panthers' slot corner Bene Benwikere has been struggling a bit lately, but seemed to get back on track against the Titans last week, and the Panthers are in the top-5 in the league in pass DVOA against non WR1 & 2's. Crowder has put up at least 4 catches and 40 yards in 7 straight games, and he might get to those numbers again, but I don't see upside for much more this week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Feel free to consider Lockett if return yardage is counted in your league, but if they aren't, Lockett showed a scary low floor Sunday with just one catch for 7 yards. He did post his best game of the season against these 49ers (5-79-1), and he could be a DFS tournament punt play, but he shouldn't be in your regular fantasy lineups this week.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. StL.): Don't chase last week's 4-40-1 line from Maxx. The Rams are a much stiffer defense than Jacksonville. The Rams have been beaten up by Jimmy Graham, Gary Barnidge, and the suddenly red hot Zach Miller, but in their other 6 games they allowed just 21 total TE points and zero touchdowns. Maxx is still running behind Crockett Gillmore. He's just a dynasty stash at this point.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Lynch has been battling through injuries all season, and the Seahawks are a 12-point favorite in this matchup. There is blowout potential here with the Seahawks desperate for a win. This could be a prime spot to get Lynch some rest if Seattle is able to get up by a couple scores early. They're going to need a healthy Marshawn down the stretch if they really want to mount a playoff push. With that in mind, there is a good chance for some extra Rawls work. In the first go-round, Lynch put up 122 yards on the 49ers and Rawls tallied 32 on 6 carries, and that game was closer than some expected (20-3 final). It's always risky to play someone in the hopes of a blowout, but this game sets up to be a decent spot for Rawls at least on paper.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Ajayi has been really solid in his first two pro games, putting up 89 yards on just 11 carries. He's become a great handcuff option for Lamar Miller owners, and could have his best game yet this week if he gets even a minor bump in touches. The Cowboys are in the bottom-6 in the NFL in run DVOA. The biggest hurdle to seeing increased work for Ajayi is the return of Tony Romo. If Romo is able to sustain drives more effectively than Matt Cassel was, Dallas can get back to the formula they used last year and control time of possession. That would limit the Dolphins' offensive opportunities, and Ajayi's as well. I'd expect there to be a little rust for Romo in his first game back though.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Mark Sanchez showed the ability to produce in this offense during an 8-game stretch as starter last season, and the Bucs haven't been good against opposing WRs. They've allowed over 200 yards to opposing WRs 5 times in 9 games. Agholor finally returned last week and matched his season high with 3 catches on 4 targets. He did that while running behind Josh Huff on the depth chart. I'd expect him to get back into the starting lineup before long. He did only catch one pass from Sanchez in week 10, but he was targeted on a downfield throw by him as well. Helping Nelson's outlook even more is the fact that the Bucs have struggled more with true outside WRs (Julio, Hurns, A-Rob, Odell, Rueben Randle, DeAndre Hopkins) than with slot guys, and Jordan Matthews spends most of his time in the slot. I expect Agholor to set a new career high in catches and possibly get loose for a deep catch.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Funchess is in pretty much the same boat he was in heading into week 10. His play has been improving over the past couple weeks, but his snaps and target volume are very limited. He made 2 nice catches for 41 yards in week 10 after a 3-71-1 line in week 9, and he gets another plus matchup this week. If the improved play continues, his role should continue to grow. He'll be a TD dart throw this week and a DFS tournament punt play. He'd be a better option for FanDuel than DraftKings since DK is a full PPR scoring system, and his catch number will likely be low.
WR Tre McBride, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): McBride will be active for the first time in his career this week, and he'll step right into the number 3 WR spot in a game against a bad pass defense. Harry Douglas has been wildly inefficient with his targets this year except for week 9, when he went 5-73 against the worst pass defense in the NFL (New Orleans). If Douglas struggles with his efficiency again early on Sunday, it could lead to increased looks for McBride.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 11: @Det.): Walford is a better than average TD dart throw again this week. He's scored in 3 of his last 4 games, and the Lions have allowed a TE touchdown in 7 of their 9 games this year (8 total TDs). No other Oakland tight end has scored a touchdown this season, so if one of them is going to score this week, it's very likely that it's Walford.
That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps with some tough lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Make sure and fit the suggestions to your roster and your league format, and feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or just want to yell at me about something (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Week 6 rolls along with some serious shake-ups in the league, including the demolition of the Giants' passing offense (Marshall and Beckham both out for the season and Shepard in a walking boot). We're still seeing some offensive weapons in fantasy that are remaining stagnant, and now is the time to consider cutting bait with them and moving on. Let's focus on the players that should provide your team with a boost this coming week - some of those guys include: Derek Carr, Mark Ingram, Elijah McGuire, Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper, Austin Hooper, and the Baltimore Ravens.