Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The 3rd year wide receiver theory has been a staple for fantasy football fans year after year. The theory is based on the idea that wide receivers take at least 2 years to fully develop at the NFL level. Players like Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Sidney Rice all had breakout years in their 3rd season. Players and coaches alike all agree that this is no fluke due to the learning curve associated at the wide receiver position between college and the pros. The 2014 season promises to be one of the best wide receiver break-out seasons, if tradition holds true. The 2012 wide receiver draft class was stacked with talent. That leads us to our list of 3rd year wide receivers to keep an eye and target for your upcoming draft.

Alshon Jeffery, CHI

Jeffery's sophomore year flew in the face of the 3rd year theory. He combined with Brandon Marshall to create the best wide receiver duo in the league under the first year of Marc Trestman's tenure as head coach. The Bears offense is only going to improve with more practice and time in the same system. Last season Alshon Jeffery showed off a skill set including crisp route running, strong hands and a highlight reel circus catches. While his 2nd season was his break out season, the 3rd year theory is still very much alive for Jeffery. He now has 2 season of experience under his belt and a full off-season of training to build on in 2014. Alshon Jeffery won't make it out of the third round in most leagues.

Michael Floyd, ARI

2013 Stats: 65 Rec. 1,041 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Projections: 80 Rec. 1,200 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 48th Overall/ 62nd ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Floyd is the perfect candidate for the 3rd year theory. He made great strides last year while breaking the 1,000 yard mark, but fantasy owners would like to see a guy get in the end zone a little bit more. At the beginning of the 2014 regular season Larry Fitzgerald will be 31 years old and entering his 11th season. Fitzgerald didn't have a bad year last season, especially with 10 TD's, but his age is a concern. Michael Floyd stepping up last season just set the table for a break out 2014 season. Carson Palmer is going to lean heavily on the younger wide receiver after a successful 2013. As of right now Michael Floyd is an amazing value pick with an ADP of 62nd. That probably won't hold up as he continues to impress throughout the preseason, but I still expect him to be a value pick in the 5th round.

Kendall Wright, TEN

2013 Stats: 94 Rec. 1,079 Yds. 2 TD's
2014 Projections: 90 Rec. 1,100 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 69th Overall/ 86th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Wright is another 3rd year wide receiver who showed break out talent in his 2nd year. Where I expect to see Kendall Wright achieve official break out status is in the end zone this year. His 94 receptions last year make him an obvious choice in PPR leagues, but no matter what format you draft in you are going to want to pay attention to him. At 5'10" he is a little shorter than you would want in a wide receiver but he makes up for it by catching everything. Tennessee has no other clear cut star offensive weapon except for Kendall Wright. He is currently ranked 69th overall and early drafters are getting a lot of value with his 86th ADP.

Rueben Randle, NYG

2013 Stats: 41 Rec. 611 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Projections: 65 Rec. 900 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 92nd Overall/ 124th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Randle was most likely everyone's least favorite waiver pickup last season after having a strong 3 games in October before finishing the season in lackluster fashion. This season Randle is on my radar as the Giants look to find a replacement for Hakeem Nicks. Randle is a tall, well-built wide receiver with all the tools to break out in 2014. He is going to see more play time this season as the #2 on the Giants offense and I expect him to be Eli's favorite receiver in the red zone. Don't let the shaky 2013 Giant offense scare you. We saw this once before and they bounced back to a Super Bowl win. Randle is currently ranked 92nd overall with an ADP of 124th. I believe his money spot in value is somewhere in-between those two numbers right now, but that could change as we see more of him in the preseason.

Jarret Boykin, GB

2013 Stats: 49 Rec. 681 Yds. 3 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 133rd Overall/ 170th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Boykin had a handful of impressive games last season. He is the first guy on this list to not be a number one or number two receiver for his team, but don't let that stop you from drafting some great value on your team this year. The Green Bay offense is built around Aaron Rodgers and he likes to distribute the ball to keep defenses guessing. You will have to keep an eye on the Packers at camp to see what is going on with the number three position, but I feel that Jarrett Boykin earned his opportunity last season. Boykin is a great addition to any team especially with his current rank to ADP differential.

Rod Streater, OK

2013 Stats: 60 Rec. 888 Yds. 4 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 163rd Overall/ 237th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Streater is currently listed on the Oakland depth chart as the number two receiver with Andre Holmes. The situation in Oakland is interesting and fantasy players are going to want to keep an eye on things on the left coast if you plan on drafting a Raider. Holmes and Streater are likely to be the guys in my opinion. Streater is primed for a break out year as he has shown good improvement in each of his previous two seasons. The Raiders also upgraded their quarterback position by signing Matt Schaub. Streater is currently ranked 163rd with an ADP of 237th. You can take a flier on Streater late if you have the adequate depth at your other positions, but chances are he will go undrafted in many leagues. I recommend you keep an eye on him as one of your waiver wire targets. He could prove very valuable once we all see what Oakland's offense is going to look like.

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 3 Preview: The Replacements

QUARTERBACK

Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) – Big Ben will be out for the season after undergoing surgery on his elbow this week. This elevates Mason Rudolph to a permanent starting position for the Steelers offense which has been struggling over the first two weeks of the season. Strangely, Rudolph was able to spark the offense against Seattle more than Ben had earlier in the game. Whispers that this elbow issue had been going on with Roethlisberger since before the season even started would make some sense of that. The Steelers just traded for a new safety to bolster their secondary and Rudolph and the offense are being undervalued right now. They all make for good ‘buy’ targets.

Drew Brees (thumb) – Brees had thumb surgery today, and according to Ed Werder from ESPN the target date for a return will be Week 10, after the Saints bye. Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter in New Orleans and immediately puts a damper on the offense there. Michael Thomas still received plenty of targets with Teddy under center, but surprisingly Alvin Kamara (13 for 45 on the ground, 1-of-3 for 15 yards receiving) did not. This will lower Kamara’s ceiling and push Latavius Murray off the radar. One interesting note, Sean Payton today was very ambiguous when asked about the starting QB going forward – maybe we’ll see Taysom Hill take over, or possibly even QBBC?

Cam Newton (foot) – This could be the end of an era for the Panthers’ QB. He looks beat up, is apparently nursing a foot (left, same as in preseason), and hasn’t been able to throw the ball downfield consistently and accurately since his shoulder issues. If Cam can’t run, and can’t throw.. it makes sense that someone else should step up in Carolina. But Christian McCaffrey can’t also be the Quarterback. Newton’s primary backup is Kyle Allen and they also drafted rookie QB Will Grier in the third-round this year, but neither seems primed to be a difference-maker or take the mantle from Cam. It just looks rough out there in Charlotte. (update via Ian Rappaport: Cam is in a walking boot)

Jets QBs are unusable (Sam Darnold w/ Mono out until Week 5 at the earliest, Trevor Siemian (leg), only Luke Falk left so no hope for Jets fans until October. This also decreases the fantasy viability of Jamison Crowder based on his usage in Week 2. It does look like Robby Anderson (4-of-6 for 81 yards) and Le’Veon Bell (21 for 68 on the ground, 10 for 61 in the air) will still be forced the ball, so while Falk being under center is certainly not a long-term positive change for them, both players should still be considered for your starting lineup.)

RUNNING BACK

James Conner (knee) – All signs point to Conner playing against the 49ers this week, but we’ll likely see a little more of Jaylen Samuels. Of course, the Steelers tend to just pepper the starting RB with carries as long as they’re playing so I ultimately wouldn’t start anyone but Conner as long as he’s active and starting.

Damien Williams (knee) – and LeSean McCoy (ankle). It could be Darwin Thompson time somewhat soon. He will certainly be getting more snaps in the coming weeks with both starting RBs on the Chiefs already showing up on the injury list.

Josh Jacobs (groin) – Interesting that Jacobs isn’t being used in the passing game (zero targets last week) currently, but that may be completely because of his injury. Something to monitor, but if he’s only rushing and getting no passes in the backfield, his value is slightly depressed (and so will you be while watching the game!)

Devin Singletary (hamstring) – Devin played well last week (6 rushes for 57 yards and 1 TD) but was ruled out late in the game with a hamstring injury. Clearly the best RB in Buffalo right now, this is another situation to monitor. Frank Gore (19 for 68 and 1TD on the ground, 2 receptions for 15 yards) is still chugging along and is startable this week, especially if Singletary is limited or out.

Marlon Mack (calf) missed practice Wednesday – Nyheim Hines gets a boost if Mack can’t go.

WIDE RECEIVER

Alshon Jeffery (calf) – The Eagles canceled practice on Wednesday since their entire team is injured. At this point, it’s not likely that Jeffery plays in Week 3 and that may work in Nelson Agholor’s favor (8-of-11 for 107 yards and 1 TD). Agholor and Ertz (8-of-16 for 72 yards) are going to have a fantasy field day in Week 3 against the Lions. Lock n’ load!

DeSean Jackson (groin) – Jackson is getting old. He’s been injured in every game so far, and Tom Pelissero from NFL.com reports that he will not play in weeks 3 or 4.

Michael Gallup (knee) – Gallup has been killin’ it on the Cowboys (6-of-8 for 68 yards last week after 7-of-7 for 168 yards in week 1) and would surely have been an excellent play against the hapless Dolphins this week, but he’s dealing with a meniscus tear that will sideline him for 2-4 weeks. Perhaps Devin Smith will take some of those targets, and Jason Witten will be getting a few extra as well.

Tyrell Williams (hip) – It’s a hip pointer! Not horrible news, but still questionable for Week 3. He’ll also be going up against Xavier Rhodes this week, so it was already a bad matchup. May be a player to avoid starting against the Vikings, knowing that he has a bit of an injury going into the week. Darren Waller might be sucking up even more targets than usual.

Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) – Didn’t practice, probably won’t matter anyway with Bridgewater in.

TIGHT END

David Njoku (concussion, wrist) – Not only did Njoku suffer a concussion during the crazy fall to the head/neck that happened at the beginning of Monday Night Football in Week 2, he has also been confirmed to have broken his wrist. This will leave Njoku on the sidelines for several weeks, and early speculation from beat reporters has him coming back in Week 8 – one week after the Browns’ bye. At least he’ll have enough time to get over his concussion, yipes!