After the dust settled from Week 1's first 2017 NFL action, heavyweight fantasy players like David Johnson, Allen Robinson, and Danny Woodhead were injured for most (and in some cases, all) of the season. What happens with their targets now, and who can be picked up to offset issues on your team if you rostered one of those players? That and more on tonight's podcast. Plus beer!
Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line Ep3: Week 2 Preview / The Apocalypse
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Well, week 1 is already in the books and if you are in multiple leagues, I would guess you've been hit with an injury! Notable fantasy related injuries this week include David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and the focus of this post, Allen Robinson.
Now before we dive into who could pick up the slack on your fantasy team, let’s look at what we lost. After a monster 2015 (80/1400, 14TDs), Robinson put up disappointing numbers in 2016. 73 receptions, 883 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Many experts were expecting a bounce back year and I am sure many teams were drafting AROB as their WR2 in the 4th or 5th round. With a Jaguars team that is more focused on pounding the ball, I expect to see stacked boxes forcing Bortles to throw downfield.
So we've determined a clear void in targets, who is going to step up? The two players getting the most discussion are Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns.
Marqise Lee is expected to be the new WR1 on the Jags and has an opportunity to prove himself. Last year, Lee put up 63/851, 3TDs (He even threw a TD to Blake Bortles on Christmas Eve against the Titans). I was very excited about Lee as a prospect when he was drafted out of USC in 2014 but he has yet to get the spotlight and showcase his talents. He has always been buried on the depth chart and was mostly on the field for 3WR sets. Lee is not a go-up-and-get-it type of receiver, but he does handle the ball well in traffic and is a good deep threat.
Allen Hurns should be no stranger to fantasy owners. In 2015, Hurns went 64/1031, 5TDs, giving fantasy players two respectable WRs to have on the Jaguars (crazy, I know). Last year, Hurns put up 35/477, 3TDs (only played 11 games).
During the preseason this year, the Jags were shopping Hurns and he didn’t draw much interest. There was speculation that he was going to be the 4th or 5th receiver on the charts behind DeDe Westbrook (IR) and Keelan Cole (Rookie from D2 Kentucky-Wesleyan). Hurns has a history with Bortles and I expect them to have the best chemistry of the available players.
Overall this is a poor place to be for the Jags and as a desperate fantasy owner. Of the two, I would lean toward Hurns being a better fantasy asset for the weeks to come. He is a bigger body and has a slightly better track record then Lee. I expect Lee to be more of a possession receiver with his value going to PPR leagues. Hurns will be more of a TD target when defenses are stacking the box in the red zone.
WRs I would target this week before Hurns and Lee would be: Cooper Kupp (26% owned), Kenny Golladay (17% owned), and Kendall Wright (15% owned). Kupp being my favorite WR option of the week.
TLDR: Avoid the Jags WRs and look elsewhere for your WR replacement. Jags are a run first team and I expect their defense to keep them in more games this year so we will not get those glorious garbage points like in years past.
The rumor mill kicks into high gear in the NFL off-season, and one of the biggest items on the agenda this year was whether or not Blake Bortles would remain the starting quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles has only played 4 full seasons in the NFL and enjoyed a very successful 2015 (4,428 yards, 35/18 TD/INT ratio), but his productivity dropped in 2016 and his role as a game manager in 2017 didn't (for the most part) allow for many big offensive opportunities to be channeled through the QB position.
Jaguars are giving QB Blake Bortles a new three-year, $54 million deal, worth up to $66.5M with incentives, that includes $26.5M guaranteed, tying him to Jacksonville through the 2020 season, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 25, 2018
Jacksonville out of QB market.
What we know: The Jaguars have extended Blake Bortles for a 3-year $54M contract and may look to draft some more developmental talent at the position this year (and who wouldn't, with their current backup being an underwhelming Chad Henne?), but Bortles will be the clear-cut starter.
With Allen Robinson likely being re-signed to a new long-term contract (or franchise tagged if the two camps can't reach a deal by March 6th), and building on the pieces that have already worked well (defense/secondary, Leonard Fournette), Bortles has been given one more chance to prove that he deserves to be under center in Jacksonville and could be their franchise quarterback.
Looking forward: Bortles underwent surgery on his right (throwing hand) wrist back in January, hoping to fix an issue that had been affecting him for the whole 2017 season. While true that there were plenty of games in which Bortles was simply managing the team into victories, it's also clear that toward the end of the season the team needed to lean on the passing game more, and he showed up when needed - putting up 9 passing TDs over the all-important weeks 13-16.
He also had an impressive divisional playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a shootout, continuing to stay one step ahead of Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense throughout the game. The Jaguars made it to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2007 and the combination of a healthy Bortles & Robinson in addition to their existing pieces should lead them right back into the thick of it.
Here we go! For many leagues, this is the last week of the regular season. Make it or break it time! This week, there are a few newcomers to the rankings, and some guys that I expect to perform at a higher level than other fantasy football experts are: Philip Rivers, Tarik Cohen, Kenny Golladay, and Allen Robinson. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 13 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!