Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Russell Wilson: Wk 7 @ STL - 37.12 pts, Wk 8 @ CAR - 14.46 pts, Wk 9 vs Oak - 10.26 pts

Wilson has been up and down all year, which way does he go?

Last week, Dave and I both stated that Wilson would resume his proper fantasy output and score over 18 points. He did just that, putting up 21.58 points in a rout of the Giants last week. His passing performance left much to be desired, but 107 yards rushing and a late score on the ground saved his fantasy day in a big way.

Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 7 vs SF - 10.10 pts, Wk 8 vs SD - 30.60 pts, Wk 9 @ NE - 15.10 pts

Sanders averaged 9.8 pts per game first 5 games, 18.6 per game in the last 3. Which one do we see going forward?

Dave and I both said he will continue to do well, scoring 15 points or more. In Week 10, Sanders had 8 rec for 67 yards and 2 TD, adding in a 5 yd rush, good for 19.20 points. Sanders now has 6 TD on the year and is clearly a perfect replacement for Eric Decker in the Denver offense. Sanders is officially a stud!

Kelvin Benjamin: Wk 7 @ GB - 12.10 pts, Wk 8 vs SEA - 9.40 pts, Wk 9 vs NO - 1.80 pts

Benjamin has the 16th most fantasy points this season, but will he rebound from this slump?

We also agreed that Benjamin would stay relevant and put up 8 or more points. Benjamin was having another terrible performance on Monday night football, with 1 catch for 13 yards going into the 4^th quarter, but then scored twice and put up a 3 for 70 with 2 TD line, good for 19.00 points. Is this comforting as a fantasy owner? No, but then again, why do you care how they score the points, as long as it’s before the clock hits 0:00.

Alfred Morris: Wk 7 vs TEN - 5.40 pts, Wk 8 @ DAL - 14.50 pts, Wk 9 @ MIN - 22.90

Morris averaged 10.1 pts per game, first 6 games, and 14.3 pts per game last 3. He had a really rough stretch against SEA, ARI and TEN in there.

Morris was on bye Week 10, so we will follow up on this next week, but we both say he will score a solid 14 points or more.

Branden Oliver: Wk 7 vs KC - 7.80 pts, Wk 8 @ DEN - 6.30 pts, Wk 9 @ MIA - 2.60 pts

Oliver scored just 16.7 pts in the last 3 weeks after putting up 48.6 points in the previous two weeks. With Mathews coming back off the bye, is Oliver relevant anymore?

Oliver was also on bye Week 10 and both Dave and I see him continuing to fall into obscurity, especially with Ryan Mathews expected to return to the lineup against Oakland on Sunday.

Zach Ertz: Wk 6 vs NYG - 10.70 pts, Wk 8 @ ARI - 4.80 pts, Wk 9 @ HOU - 0.40 pts

Ertz is a great red zone target that isn't utilized. Will this change with Sanchez in?

This was the one prediction that we split on last week. Dave said Ertz will stay under 5 points, and I said he’d go higher. Looks like I’m drinking for this one – Ertz finished the game with 1 catch for only 17 yards. Clearly, no, Sanchez doesn’t change anything as it appears that Celek is his preferred TE.

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 10 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Cam Newton: Wk 8 vs Sea – 6.24 pts, Wk 9 vs NO – 13.34 pts, Wk 10 @ PHI – 15.84 pts

Newton is really a test of this trend theory. Everyone sees his play as being awful, but he’s actually trending up from his season low of 6.24 against the Seahawks. Newton also gets a bye coming up in Week 12, so is he going to stumble, or put it together for the rest of the season?

Julio Jones: Wk 7 @ BAL – 5.60 pts, Wk 8 vs DET – 5.80 pts, Wk 10 @ TB – 11.90 pts

Jones has really struggled this year compared to where his draft position was, making him a top 5 WR (preseason). Jones is still serviceable this season, but has just as many single digit games as he does double digit, which means he’s probably not as reliable as you’d like. Is this a product of Matt Ryan or Julio, and will he return to greatness or be cursed to NFC South obscurity?

DeAndre Hopkins: Wk 7 @ PIT – 8.80 pts, Wk 8 @ TEN – 9.50 pts, Wk 9 vs PHI – 17.50 pts

Hopkins is stepping up (trying to anyway) as the number one guy in Houston. He’s trending up and has 3 100+ yard games under his belt this year and is averaging about 10 targets per game over the last 3 games. Will Hopkins continue his upward trend, or will the new QB in Houston ruin his party?

Le’Veon Bell: Wk 8 vs IND – 14.80 pts, Wk 9 vs Bal – 11.80 pts, Wk 10 @ NYJ – 6.90 pts

Bell has scored double digit points in every single week except for Week 10 now as the Steelers appear to have all but abandoned the run game. Now, these numbers aren’t disastrous, but he’s moved out of RB1 territory. Bell has only 21 carries over the last two weeks, after 24 the week before, two of those games being blowouts for the Steelers. With the passing game working so well lately, will Bell continue to be the odd man out on the Steelers?

Ahmad Bradshaw: Wk 7 vs CIN – 18.80 pts, Wk 8 @ PIT – 14.70 pts, Wk 9 @ NYG – 7.90 pts

Bradshaw is trending down, which was a surprise to me. He has 8 total TD’s this year, so he’s been putting up points and is clearly worth a start the rest of the year, right? With matchups against NE, Jax, Was, Cle, Hou and Dal to finish the year, it’s a mixture of good and bad run defenses. Bradshaw seems a bit too TD dependent, but can you really sit the top back on one of the best teams in the league?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 11 and we will recap the results next week.