Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

8/19/14, Draft Prep, AFC/NFC South, Memorial Day

This week we lined up four delicious beers and took them down in order of hoppiness. We started with a Two Brother’s Domain DuPage, and then there was the Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA. After that, perhaps in honor of the Doctor’s return this week, we went all timey-wimey. We had a Dogfish Head 90 Minute IPA and finished it off in style with their 120 Minute IPA.

Enough gushing over the beers we got to have during the show, let’s get down to football. We didn’t have a whole lot to discuss regarding Week 2’s preseason games because we wanted to continue with covering all of the fantasy players in the league. This week, we covered the NFC and AFC south and basically anyone who is relevant in that division.

Finally, we touched on the newest episode of “The Leftovers”. The season is really heating up with only 2 episodes left. Make sure you don’t miss any of Dave’s reviews, here’s his latest one.

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

The AFC South division includes the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. The Colts had a great season in 2014 but this year will capitalize even further with the acquisition of some well-known veteran players. How will that affect the fantasy production of the players who performed well last year like T.Y. Hilton and Dan Herron? Tune in to find out! On this week's podcast, we go through the off-season moves of each of those teams and break down their fantasy implications. Which guys will capitalize and which will suffer?

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 8/5/15, AFC South Spotlight)

That wraps up our trip through every division in the NFL, next week (8/11/15) it's on to the draft strategy show where we'll talk about a few of the many strategies that you can use in 2015 to win the championship game in your league. It's still the off-season, but we're really looking forward to kicking off the 2015 season with some draft shows - getting specific with strategies and honest advice on who the top performers at each position will be (and who will bust!). Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live at http://www.mixlr.com/drinkfive on Tuesday nights at 9pm CT. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion!

The AFC south had 2 of the top 3 picks in this year’s draft, meaning that half of the division was really, really bad last year. The Colts did manage to make it to the AFC championship game, going through the Bengals and Broncos before a “deflating” loss in New England. This year, everyone looks to improve their team, and the Houston Texans are going to be featured on this season’s Hard Knocks, starting August 11^th.

Check our breakdown of the AFC South

Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/4/15, AFC South Spotlight: 2015 Fantasy Preview

Indianapolis Colts (11-5):

Add/Re-sign –

Frank Gore, RB – Signed as a FA, 8.5mil in guarantees, big things are expected.

Andre Johnson, WR – Signed as a FA, 3 year, 21 mil contract.

Andrew Luck, QB – Club exercised his 5^th year option, no brainer of the century.

Phillip Dorsett, WR – Drafted 1^st round, 29^th overall in a position they already have depth.

Josh Robinson, RB – Drafted in the 6^th round, gets lots of MJD comparisons.

Departures –

Trent Richardson, RB – Good riddance! The ploddingist of the plodders has gone where RB’s go to die.

Reggie Wayne, WR – A former Colts superstar is left on the outside looking in, and still looking for a new team.

Issues:

The Colts are second only to the Packers in recovering from losing the best QB in franchise history. In 2011, they chanted “Suck for Luck”. This year they are Super Bowl contenders, and the favorites in some minds in the AFC. The main reason for this is Andrew Luck, a guy who has improved in each season so far in his young Career. Last season he threw for over 4700 yards and 40 TD’s (league leader), rushed for 3 TD’s and lead his team to their third straight 11-5 regular season.

So, we know that Luck is going to be great, but who’s going to be the beneficiary of his arm? Last year, T.Y. Hilton lead the team in receiving, netting over 1300 yards on 82 receptions. I expect a similar output from him this season, despite the fact that the WR core is now stacked in Indy. The additions of Andre Johnsonand Phillip Dorsett, along with Donte Moncreif, Griff Whalen and Duron Carter means that Luck is going to have plenty of secondary targets to choose from. It’s hard to predict who else will be fantasy relevant, but I suspect that Andre Johnson will rise to the top and Phillip Dorsett will be given a huge chance to contribute.

Running Back has been the weak link of the Colts offense for a while now. They have finally put the worst trade of 2013 behind them and Trent Richardson has moved on to Oakland. In his place, they have given Frank Gore, a 31-year-old RB who has been under 1000 yards only once in the last 10 years, a bunch of guaranteed money. Gore has only Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind him, so it’s clear that the Colts plan on giving him at least as much work in previous seasons, so expect around 275 carries from a healthy Frank Gore. He has had his role in the passing game in San Fran reduced in the last few seasons, but he’s been a big feature in the years before that. Pay attention during preseason to how much Luck throws to him out of the backfield. Gore has an ADP of 13 (overall 28) and could reasonably live up to that spot. I’m skeptical that rookie Josh Robinson has fantasy value in his first year based on the value that the Colts are placing on Gore.

Tight End might be the most “toss-up” position on the team, though it seems that Dwayne Allen will be taking the primary role, over Coby Fleener. Allen is a more complete player and is entering the season as the #1 TE on the team. I don’t expect anything more than a ceiling of low-top 10 for Allen, as there are just too many fast targets for Luck to hit and not enough work at the TE position. If Allen can put up the same TD’s as last season, he will find his way into the top 10 (12 last year).

Houston Texans (9-7):

Add/Re-sign –

Ryan Mallett, QB – Signed to extension, will compete for starting job.

Brian Hoyer, QB – Signed from Cleveland, will compete for starting Job.

Vince Wilfork, NT – As if they needed more help on their D-line.

Chris Polk, RB – Suddenly in the mix with the Foster injury.

Cecil Shorts, WR – Drink five! He was a FA, signed a 2 year, $6 mil contract.

Jaelen Strong, WR – Third round pick by the Texans.

Departures –

Andre Johnson, WR – Released by the team, signed by their toughest division opponents.

Case Keenum, QB – Traded to StL, they’re starting over at QB this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – The smartest man in the NFL never gets to stay somewhere for very long, it seems. Traded to the Jets.

Issues:

The Texans will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series this season, which to me, traditionally means a couple of things. First, any drama on the team will be exaggerated ten-fold. Secondly, these players are likely to be over-valued come draft time. Most people are not exposed to EVERYONE, so the players they are exposed to a lot will have an artificially inflated value. Finally, HBO will stress the biggest positional competition, which is QB this season, so that means more drama, more “at home” scenes and more uncomfortable cut scenes.

QB is definitely a position that is up in the air on this team. Everyone knows that QB is the most important position on the offense, and everyone knows that the Texans don’t have one yet. This puts far too much pressure on their running game and defense to be perfect. This year, it looks like camp will feature a competition between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Hoyer started with the first team reps, but Mallett has also been taking reps with the starters. This battle won’t likely be decided until after the third preseason game has concluded. Even once a QB is chosen, I wouldn’t consider either to be a starter in any 10-12 man leagues.

The RB position, once secured by Arian Foster, is now up for grabs. Foster suffered a groin injury on 8/3 and it will require surgery and he will likely be on the IR/designated to return list to begin the season, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until week 10. This leaves a huge, warrior-poet sized hole in our season of Hard Knocks AND the Texans backfield. Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk will battle in camp to get the starter’s role. Blue will be the favorite to get the job, as he’s filled in for Foster in the past already, but it may end up being RBBC once the season starts. I’m just sad that we’re losing the guy who has tweets that warn us of the dangers of bacteria in your gums, confessions of stolen towels from Trump hotels and his disinterest in Seinfeld. Look at the news over the next few days, the Texans will be shopping for a free agent to add to this RB group.

The WR position has changed a bit in Houston, mostly since Andre Johnson will not be there for the first time in 12 years. Filling his shoes will be DeAndre Hopkins, the clear cut #1 WR on the team. Hopkins is known for catching nearly every catchable ball thrown his way. Hopkins has what it takes to be an elite WR in this league, he just needs a QB to get him the ball. Hopkins has an ADP of 13 (WR) and 29 overall. With even adequate QB play, he can live up to those numbers. Meanwhile, Cecil Shorts will be lining up opposite him. His adp is all the way down at 72 (WR) and 186 (overall), basically undraftable. I’m all for taking a flyer on him and making everyone drink five at the end of the draft, but don’t expect a ton of fantasy production out of Jaelen Strong or Cecil Shorts unless the QB gets a big improvement.

At TE, the Texans have Garrett Graham, (not Jimmy’s little brother). Graham has had a few spots of good play, but hasn’t been used enough to really be noticed, especially when he was behind Owen Daniels. It looks like Graham is going to move into the first string spot at TE, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he will translate into a top 10 fantasy TE. There’s just too many questions at the QB position to answer it at this time.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):

Add/Re-sign –

Julius Thomas, TE – The new juice got a 5 year contract as a free agent from Jacksonville.

Bernard Pierce, RB – Claimed off waivers from Baltimore.

T.J. Yeldon, RB – 2^nd round pick (36^th overall).

Rashad Greene, WR – 5^th round pick, 139^th overall.

Departures –

Cecil Shorts, WR – Left for Texas.

Ace Sanders, WR – Released in mid-July.

Issues:

As is tradition, the Jaguars lost their first round pick to injury – Dante Fowler tore his ACL just days after being drafted. The Jaguars did have a great draft, despite the injury, picking up T.J. Yeldon in the 2^nd and Guard A.J. Cann in the third, a guy who will probably start in week 1. With some added protection and tools for Blake Bortles, I expect him to begin the process of getting better. Bortles left a lot to be desired, but he was a constant presence on a team that hasn’t had a real QB since David Gerrard. Bortles is basically the same size as Ben Roethlisberger, and big QB’s have been having a lot of success in the league lately. Bortles has the potential to be an impact player for Jacksonville, but he needs a lot of work to get there. Bortles may be a relevant QB2 in leagues that start 2 QB’s, but even that’s a stretch, for now.

At WR, the situation is rather muddy. I hate to say it, but the departure of Cecil Shorts is likely to go unnoticed in Jacksonville. They have lots of young guys, but nobody who seems to want to step up into the main role. Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Rashad Greene & company are all going to see some of their targets go to Julius Thomas, easily the most talented pass catcher on the team (even if his greatest talent is having played with Peyton Manning). There isn’t much here other than bench depth. If someone goes down, it’s possible that another player gets a big enough role that he’s worth starting in a WR3 role, but I just don’t see the garbage time points that Jacksonville has been known for in the past. They are a team that is slowly improving, and as a result, is less likely to be getting blown out week after week.

The only place where the Jags are relatively loaded would be at RB. Rookie T.J. Yeldon is sitting on top of the depth chart and should get a decent amount of carries. Toby Gerhart will resume his backup role, one that he did well with in Minnesota (though it means zero fantasy production). Denard Robinson should continue to be a wild card and third down back and have limited PPR production value, though that increases if Yeldon can’t get on the field. This rbbc will irritate fantasy owners for sure, but there may be just enough value here for people to keep coming back.

As for the TE position, I feel that Julius Thomas is still a guy who can be in the top 10 TE’s at the end of the year easily. His ADP is 10 for TE’s and 99 overall, so I see some good value here. Be patient and scoop up Thomas late, or let someone else reach for him.

Tennessee Titans (2-14):

Add/Re-sign -

Marcus Mariota (QB, Rookie)

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Rookie)

Brian Orakpo (OL, from WAS)

Dick LeBeau (Assistant Head Coach, from PIT)

Hakeem Nicks (WR, from IND)

Harry Douglas (WR, from ATL)

David Cobb (RB, Rookie)

Departures:

Jake Locker (QB, FA)

Shonn Greene (RB, FA)

Nate Washington (WR, to HOU)

Outlook:

The Titans needed a reboot pretty badly after a terrible 2-14 season in 2014. So that’s what they did. And their offseason moves have been heralded by many as being among the best in the league. Starting from under center, The Titans drafted mobile QB Marcus Mariota at #2 overall to be the new franchise QB in Tennessee. Good riddance Jake Locker! Move over, Zach Mettenberger. Mariota will take the helm of this team in 2015 and with a huge amount of rope as well. As far as how he’ll perform from a fantasy perspective, comparisons to the athleticism and rushing ability of Colin Kaepernick have been made, but Mariota is a more skilled passer out of the box. We expect there to be some stumbling out of the gate, but Mariota should be a serviceable QB2 with a high ceiling going forward. He’ll be very interesting to watch, but unfortunately the rest of the team around him is not good enough to warrant drafting him yet in standard leagues.

Kendall Wright fell off the map last year (not entirely his fault, mostly due to inconsistent QB play) after putting up some impressive stats in his 2^nd year (94 receptions for 1079 yards and 2 TDs). Maybe he doesn’t gel very well with Ken Whisenhunt’s offensive scheme? Regardless, Wright is the #1 option for the Titans and will likely finish with an improved, but still mediocre stat line this year. His ADP is in the 15^th round and he’s likely off the radar in redraft leagues, though there is value there still in PPR and dynasty leagues as a WR4/5. After Justin Hunter’s arrest for felony assault, it looks like the #2 spot in Tennessee comes down to a battle between newcomer Dorial Green-Beckham and former Falcon Harry Douglas. Although Green-Beckham is the better raw talent, I’m betting that the veteran Douglas gets the start from day 1. The 6’5”, 237 lb (reported to camp at a stunning 246 lbs) rookie could be an outstanding receiver in the NFL eventually – but for now he is still a project. Lest I forget, Hakeem Nicks is now on the Titans. Eh, his production has declined for four years straight and Tennessee is not exactly the place where you go to revive a dying career. Not expecting much relevance from Nicks.

After the wheels fell off of Shonn Greene, the Titans parted ways with him and look to use a committee at RB in 2015, made up of Bishop Sankey, David Cobb and Dexter McCluster. In his 2^nd year, Sankey has been getting the first team reps at Titans’ camp but is looking as mediocre as he did last year (152 rushes for 569 yards and 2 TDs). The magic 8-ball says that all of these running backs will be involved in the offense, making it a frustrating experience for fantasy footballers everywhere. I do think that RB David Cobb may have a bright future in the league, but that is more of a far-off glimmer at this point. Stats from this rag tag group of backs will be disappointing, at best.

Tight end Delanie Walker has enjoyed two fairly productive years in 2013 and 2014 (most recently putting up 63 receptions for 890 yards and 4 TDs) and his ADP is somewhere between the 11^th and 12^th rounds in standard drafts. With a new QB and only scattered receiving talent on the field otherwise, Walker’s role should only improve in 2015. Many experts have him ranked at the tail end of the top 10 TEs for the upcoming season and I have to agree. He’ll be receiving a lot of dump-off passes from Mariota. Anthony Fasano seems like a great guy, but he’s not fantasy relevant.

Houston Texans

What’s changed since last year? The Texans didn’t sign any offensive players of note in free agency, they fired their GM Brian Gaine, Lamar Miller tore his ACL and MCL in the preseason, and they acquired RB Duke Johnson from the Browns.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There has been quite a bit of noise about 2^nd year WR Keke Coutee breaking out this year after a good showing in some games last year, but he has had trouble staying healthy and it looks like he won’t play early in the season after an ankle injury in early August. 4^th year WR Will Fuller has also had trouble staying healthy and went down with an ACL last year but appears to be fully recovered now and is my choice for a breakout. He did have 7 TDs in 2017 but has maxed out at only 635 yards so I think this year may be his best yet.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Duke Johnson (ADP79, RB34) is a good example of a sleeper pick right now, although his ADP has risen substantially since Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. Especially in PPR leagues, Johnson could end up outperforming his ADP by miles if the Texans don’t end up picking up another RB to start. Either way, he’ll have the opportunity to succeed in this offense.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Deshaun Watson (ADP 40, QB2) is routinely taken off draft boards quickly, DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 5, WR1) is an easy decision to make here. Hopkins is an otherworldly talent who will almost certainly catch 100+ passes for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. Boom.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? 2^nd year TE Jordan Thomas (ADP 373, TE41) could find his way into being a TE2 on a team that craves some more options in the passing game, and UDFA RB Damarea Crockett (ADP 303, RB78) figures to find a way into the lineup throughout the year barring some major moves from the Texans. Duke Johnson has not missed an NFL game, however, so Crockett’s path to playing time probably doesn’t happen that way.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Of note, the Texans picked TE Kahale Warring (3^rd round, #86 overall) for depth at the position – analysis reveals that Warring needs a lot of help with his blocking but is a skilled route runner. He will likely not provide a fantasy impact in 2019. [Editor's Note: Warring is now a candidate for IR, looks like he certainly won't be making any immediate impact in fantasy]

Indianapolis Colts

What’s changed since last year? #1 with a bullet, Andrew Luck has retired, leaving most NFL analysts, fans, players, and coaches in shock. Yowza. This clearly impacts the Colts’ offense negatively in general and we’ll likely see ripples of this in fantasy for years to come. They added Devin Funchess after losing Dontrelle Inman and Ryan Grant and added Spencer Ware.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? 2^nd year WR Deon Cain (ADP 342, WR114) has been killing it in the preseason, so let’s go with him. He tore his ACL in early August last year which is why his name may have faded from memory, but he’ll be a week 1 starter for the Colts and has been showing great chemistry with Jacoby Brissett (who is now the starting QB there). Roll the dice on this kid in a deep draft, why not?

Who is a sleeper you can draft? At this point almost all the Colts are still being drafted above their ADP when you factor in the effects of Luck’s retirement. Perhaps Nyheim Hines (ADP 185, RB58) could help out as a safety valve for the new QB and improve on the yardage (425) and TD (2) numbers he had last year...

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Marlon Mack (ADP 38, RB21) is being drafted earlier than T.Y. Hilton (ADP 41, WR15), Hilton has more value and a higher upside (5 1000+ yard receiving seasons while Mack has not yet reached 1000 yards rushing). I’m calling Hilton the stud on this team, and the Colts may be playing from behind more than they have the lead this season. Chuck it, Jacoby!

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? While everyone is drafting Eric Ebron (ADP 90, TE8) as a top 10 TE, they may be forgetting about Jack Doyle (ADP 203, TE21) a little too soon. Doyle finished the 2017 season as the TE8, with 80 receptions, without Andrew Luck. He didn’t participate in the offseason program at all, due to hip/kidney surgeries, but is now recovered and chomping at the bit to provide some fantasy production to your team. Could he cause Ebron to bust in 2019? Maybe.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Parris Campbell (ADP 205, WR70) has missed the last 15 team practices in training camp and preseason due to a lingering hamstring injury. He may play against the Bengals this week, but it looks like he’ll start out the year as the WR4 on the Colts, behind Hilton, Funchess, and Cain. He’s still very much a weapon that the Colts will use but is not likely to be relevant this year without a top QB at the helm.

Tennessee Titans

What’s changed since last year? Congrats on the new gig as backup QB in Nashville, Ryan Tannehill! The Titans also added WR Adam Humphries and drafted rookie WR A.J. Brown.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? So, the narrative says that 3^rd year WR Corey Davis (ADP 94, WR37) should be the breakout player on the Titans this year. And I agree, he should. 2018 basically doubled his stats from the previous year, and at 65 receptions for 891 yards, he doesn’t have far to go to eclipse that 1000 mark. The trouble is really the offense in general but he is currently on a trajectory to be an every week fantasy starter.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Without hesitation, Delanie Walker (ADP 114, TE11). True, he’s getting older (35 as of August 12^th, happy birthday Delanie!), but he strung together 4 straight seasons of 100+ targets and 800+ yards before he was injured in game 1 of 2018. He’s still the starting TE of the Titans and still Mariota’s favorite redzone target. His ADP has been rising recently but he has been no worse than the TE 5 over the past three years. This guy could help you win your league at his current valuation. Former Patriots’ RB Dion Lewis (ADP 129, RB46) is also a possible sleeper, if incumbent starter Derrick Henry is unable to live up to expectations.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Derrick Henry (ADP 36, RB19) is as close as we get to a stud on the Titans now (not counting Walker since consensus is lower on him after coming back from injury), but he’s not quite there. Last year, Henry rushed for 1000+ yards and 12 TDs though – so if he can match those numbers this season, he’ll be drafted as a stud RB in 2020. What are the odds?

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Adam Humphries (ADP 224, WR74) is not currently being drafted in most leagues, and has been getting some buzz in the preseason, even receiving more targets than Davis in the preseason. Last year he had 76 receptions for 816 yards and 5 TDs playing slot receivers for the Bucs. That said – there may not be enough targets to spread around in Tennessee - maybe he just signed with the Titans for the $36 million and a cool place to Netflix and chill.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The only rookie that the Titans took on the offensive side of the ball during the 2019 draft was WR A.J. Brown (ADP 207, WR71). He was drafted #51 overall in the 2^nd round and has all the pieces to be a #1 WR on any NFL team. Unfortunately, he was drafted by the Titans. In Tennessee, Brown has to deal with unpredictable QB play, a struggling offensive line, a middling number of targets available for the playmakers, and a depth chart that currently has both Davis and Walker in front of him as primary options in the passing game. From all the tape I’ve seen of him, it’s likely that Brown will be great – but it’s not likely that it’s in 2019.

Jacksonville Jaguars

[Editor's Note: Jaguars information will be available shortly]