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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 18
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 17
David Biggs's Week 17 Rankings
David Biggs's Week 16 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 16
The Rookie Report: Week 16 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 15
David Biggs's Week 15 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 15 Starts & Sits
The Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits
David Biggs's Week 14 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 14
The Rookie Report: Week 13 Starts & Sits
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 13
David Biggs's Week 13 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Statistically (in)Significant: Week 7
24
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 7

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

 

43 FG In a Row

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri broke the NFL record and has now made 43 of his last 43 attempts, going back to early in the 2015 season. In fact, Vinatieri started off last season 0/2 and hasn't missed since then. Over this span, he's made 9-50+ yarders, kicked a FG in the last 16 straight games and has an average of 41 yards per attempt during the streak. The oldest player in the NFL is playing better than anyone at his position ever has. If any kicker belongs in the Hall of Fame, it's definitely Vinatieri.

 

6-6 Tie

Those of us who kept watching compelling, yet bad, football on Sunday night were rewarded with a game full of bad. Missed field goals, stepping out of bounds just shy of the goal line, penalties and more penalties - it had all the bad football that one could want. This was the lowest scoring overtime tie in NFL history and the defensive player of the game definitely goes to the goalposts.

 

24 Penalties

It wound up being an ugly game in Jacksonville, and the Raiders and Jaguars combined to get 24 penalties for 239 yards and three ejections. To be fair, this whole week featured some awful football. There were 39 turnovers in the 13 games that were played on Sunday, missed kicks all over the place and a 6-6 tie to cap it all off. Don't even get me started on the orangest game of the year, the equally hard to watch Bengals-Browns game.

 

214 Rush Yards

Jay Ajayi was fantastic yet again, putting up 214 yards on 29 carries and became just the 4th player in NFL history to have back-to-back games of 200+ rushing yards. He now leads the league with 6.3 yards per attempt and has already vaulted himself into the top 10 RB's this seasons. Ajayi does have the last two games to thank for that, but his role on the team indicates that won't be a fluke (though 200+ yards is more than anyone can ask for). He plays the Jets after a bye this week, look for him to keep going strong when they return.

 

6 Quarterbacks

So far this season, the Browns have had six different guys play quarterback for them. Kevin Hogan is the most recent player this season to take the mantle of Browns QB. Going 12/24 for 100 yards passing and 2 INT, he fits right in with the Browns this season. He did put a little spark into the offense, however, by rushing for 104 yards and a TD. The Browns are probably hoping that McCown can return asap, but don't expect much to get better in Cleveland, as far as football is concerned.

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 3
24
September

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 3

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

2 Records to Start the Season

 

Last week, we checked in on Patrick Mahomes and Michael Thomas's blistering starts. This week, they both continued their record making/breaking pace. Mahomes now has 13 TD to start the season, the most by anyone ever. He's averaging over 30 points per game, leading all non-magical quarterbacks. He'll get Denver in week 4, his toughest match so far, but certainly one where he can keep up his pace. Meanwhile, Thomas added another 10 receptions to his season total, bringing it to 38. All of this on just 40 targets - he's almost having a perfect season. He's still on pace for over 200 receptions, a ridiculous number, but I'm just a sucker for ridiculous early season extrapolation.

 

565 Field Goals Made

 

Kickers rarely make this column, but I'm generally OK with making an exception for future hall-of-famers. Adam Vinatieri went 3 for 3 in Philly on Sunday to tie Morten Anderson's all time record of 565 field goals made. Congrats to Adam, for completing this in just your 23rd season. Yea, Adam was kicking field goals way back during Clinton's first term in office. Anderson played even longer - he was drafted before I was born, and kicked his last FG after my 26th birthday. Vinatieri will probably pass Anderson's record for most points, as he's only 33 behind him now. Will a kicker make this column twice in one year?

 

Over 40 Fantasy Points

 

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have now faced off something like 20 times, and Sunday might have been the highest scoring affair of all of them. Both QBs managed to top 40 fantasy points in a game, combined for 770 passing yards and 10 total TDs. The Saints have been coming from behind in every game this year, and it's resulted in some huge fantasy production. Not only the afore mentioned Brees and Michael Thomas, but Alvin Kamara is living up to his draft stock and has the 2nd most points among RBs. For the Falcons, this is Matt Ryan's best game since 2016, and the first time that he's thrown 5 passing TDs in one game. Three of those went to Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley, who put up a 7 for 146 line and will be the waiver wire darling of the week. He was only 22% owned in Yahoo leagues going into Sunday's games, so look for him in your league this week.

 

5th Most Points in Week 3

 

One of the best performances of the week belongs to a guy owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. He's responsible for the biggest upset of the season so far, and the destroyer of survivor pools. That's right, it's Josh Allen, Buffalo's rookie QB. Allen was an efficient 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and no picks, while running in two on his own. I'm not saying you go out and pick him up, but it was enough to beat the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 16.5 points. This is now two straight weeks of just 3 points for the Vikings DST, which has to now go face the Rams on a short week. This is probably the time to move on and stream another team. It still remains to be seen if the Vikings are really this bad, or if they just got caught looking ahead to the next game.

 

3 of the top 10 TEs

 

Using the drinkfive fantasy league as a measuring stick (standard scoring, 10 teams), only 3 of the top 10 TEs this week are even on teams. This week's top 10 TE list is dominated by guys owned in 2% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Dallas Goedert led the way with a measly 13.3 points, and was only one of three guys to hit double digits. Both OJ Howard and Jesse James have a shot at that tonight, bringing a little stability to a position that has some of the worst production it's seen in years. At this point, I feel that playing a TE is just a dart throw and a hope that he will find the end zone. Streaming a TE this season seems more relevant than ever, and I would definitely go that route if you are not getting the production you want out of the TE slot.

 

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4
01
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 4

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

7 QBs over 30 Points

 

No tricks, no BS – there’s even an 8th guy who may reach this level tonight. So far this week, there are 7 QBs that put up at least 30 points in standard scoring, led by usual suspect Mitchell Trubisky. OK, maybe he’s never even come close to these heights. Heck, his 43.46 points this season is more than he put up in the first three weeks combined. Now, I’m not sure that everyone should rush out to place claims on Trubes, but he did finally show what the Bears offensive ceiling is, and it’s actually impressive. He even broke the modern Bears QB record with 6 TD passes – nobody even had 5 of them since Sid Luckman threw for 7 back in 1943. On the other side of the ball Sunday, we saw the end of the 2018 installment of Fitzmagic – this guy’s fun, but I suspect we might have seen the last Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well as a starting QB (barring injury). Jameis Winston is ready to lick his fingers and eat some W’s (just….gross) when they return to action in Week 6. Farewell, Bucs – we hardly knew ye.

 

158.3 Passer Rating

 

Last Thursday, we were treated to real football. Part of that real football game was the most perfect passing performance, statistically speaking, we’ve ever seen. Jared Goff’s performance was the 70th time that a QB posted a perfect passer rating. It was perhaps the best perfect game ever, featuring both the most passing attempts (33) and passing yards (465) of any perfect passer rating game in history. Goff added 5 TDs to finish with a cool 39.3 fantasy points. Goff is definitely trending up and is now a top-4 QB in fantasy through one quarter of the season. The Rams WRs were the big winners here – each of their top 3 guys, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all put up over 16 points – 100+ yards and 1+ TDs each. The fantasy value on the Rams is overflowing and you should get in on it now before getting priced out of the market for trade value.

 

567 Made Field Goals

 

As promised last week, Adam Vinatieri has earned his way back into the discussion with his record breaking performance on Sunday. Vinatieri was 2/2 on FG kicks and has now passed Morten Anderson for sole possession of the all-time record for FGs made. A deeper dive into his stats (a list of all his made FGs is available here) shows that he also has 56 more made FGs in the playoffs, including a whopping 14 in 2006 alone. He’s made 40 FGs of 50+ yards. He’s made 12 FGs in overtime, including his one on Sunday. 160 of those FGs were kicks that gave his team the lead. He even has one passing TD to his name. Vinatieri deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer, and it’s been fun watching his career – heck, him playing even pre-dates my interest in the NFL. In tribute, 13 other kickers also put up 10 or more points in a week filled with offense.

 

240 Yards from Scrimmage

 

The anemic Cowboys offense got a shot of 50cc’s of pure Zeke on Sunday against the Lions. Ezekiel Elliot set a career high mark with 240 yards from scrimmage. He added 1 receiving TD, bringing his fantasy total up to an even 30 points. Those 30 are good for only 9th most points this week – offense is increasing everywhere. Sunday, Zeke touched the ball a whopping 29 times, a trend that has to continue if Dallas wishes to win any more games this year. Their offense has looked so bad in the first 3 games of the season, that pushing more than 50% of the offense (Sunday was 29 touches for Zeke, 23 for the rest of the team) is the only path to victory. This is unsustainable over the course of 16 games, but it will result in tons of fantasy production for Zeke. He has 51% of the team’s touches and is the 4th best fantasy RB so far this season. I expect him to continue with his 100 yards and/or 1 TD M.O. most of the season, but he is vulnerable to a dud game because of the team that’s around him.

 

1st Regular Season Td

 

Titans WR Corey Davis finally recorded his first regular season touchdown. After finding the end zone twice in the postseason last year, Davis finally got one that counts on the regular stat sheet. Davis had a hell of a game, grabbing 9 receptions on 15 targets for 161 yards and the game winning TD in overtime. Davis had a whopping 15 points on the season going into the week, and put up 22.1. With the sudden departure (not a Leftovers reference) of Rishard Matthews last week, Davis is in line to continue getting a heavy workload. It helps that his QB Marcus Mariota seems healthy, so this connection should continue to grow. Next up is the Bills, so the 3-1 Titans should keep rolling.

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8
29
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

8 Straight Games of 100+ Receiving Yards

 

I've been keeping track of a couple of streaks here in the column lately, and both of them were extended on Sunday. First off, Adam Thielen matched Calvin Johnson's mark of 8 straight games with 100 receiving yards. It's also the new record for the start of a season. Thielen is the top scoring WR in fantasy this year (without ever hitting the 20 point mark), but his streak still comes up well short of Calvin Johnson's in one noticeable aspect. Megatron had 329 more yards during his streak, which is 35% more than Thielen. Also on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes continued his streak of 300 yard passing games, making it 7 in a row. He's still a couple games short of Drew Brees' record of 9 games, which he's done twice. Mahomes now leads the NFL with 2526 Passing Yards and 26 TDs. He's throwing a TD every 9.1% of his pass attempts and is leading all fantasy QBs by over 3 points per game.

 

3 Straight Games with 2 TDs

 

James Conner continues to be a marvel for the Steelers and now sits atop the crowded tier 2 RBs in fantasy points. Todd Gurley still has 41% more points than Conner, more on that in a moment. Conner's two TDs on Sunday made it three games in a row with two TDs, which is a first in franchise history. Quite a remarkable feat on a team like the Steelers, who have seen their share of hall of fame running backs. Conner is averaging 29.5 points per game over that stretch, which has prompted a lot of "Le'Veon who?" talk this year. Personally, I don't think the fighting is necessary or helpful. It may not be good from a fantasy perspective, but imagine the embarrassment of riches the Steelers will have at their disposal for the second half of the season when Bell finally reports.

 

15 TDs on the Season

 

Todd Gurley already has 15 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in only 8 games. It could have been 16, and would have been nice for my fantasy team, but I applaud Gurley on his smart move. In the middle of a play, he was well aware that the only way to lose the game was to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Maybe Ty Montgomery can learn something from Gurley. Thus, the Rams are now 8-0, in part because their players are more aware of the game situation than their opponents. Maybe the Steelers and Browns can learn something too! Back to Gurley, he has more TDs than any other player had last season (Gurley had 19), and more than all but 8 players' season totals going back to 2012. He already has passed everyone's total from 2015. Gurley may have passed on a touchdown on Sunday, but he's still going to have a good shot at the single season record of 31.

 

2550 Career Points

 

I certainly wind up with a lot of entries about kickers for as much as I like to poke fun at them. This time though, it's definitely out of respect for a future hall of famer. Adam Vinatieri, who told his family not to travel to Oakland because he wasn't even sure if he'd play this week, now owns the career scoring record with 2550 total points. He's made 829 of his 846 extra point attempts, seen the extra point move back to no longer be a gimme, and still maintained a 94.4% conversion rate. He's made 573 field goals on 679 attempts and has been kicking since before South Park was a television show. Congrats to Adam Vinatieri, the most prolific kicker in a game that, by its name, you would think would have a lot more to do with kicking.

 

8 Top D/STs all Under 50% Owned

 

Through Sunday's games, the weekly leaders at D/ST once again prove that relying on one team every week is not likely to work, but then again, it's hard to tell what will. Of the top 8 D/STs, Washington & Carolina are the most owned at 45%. Only one of those teams is owned in our drinkfive league. It feels counter-intuitive when you have teams like the Rams, Texans and Bears that you don't want to let go, but streaming defenses is the way to go. The top 4 point scoring teams all matched up against teams that gave up the 12th most points, or more. Pay attention to matchups and the waiver wire and don't miss out on these points that wind up sitting on the waiver wire. Or, we could just get rid of the randomness of a kicker and defense from fantasy football altogether.

 

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