Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

22 Rush Yards, Team Leader

Alex Smith led the Washington Redskins with a whopping 22 yards rushing, all on one scramble in the 2nd quarter. The Redskins came into the game with the 8th best rushing attack in the league, fronted by a resurgent Adrian Peterson. The Falcons came into the game as one of the league's worst rush defenses (20th in Yards, 30th in TDs), so Peterson's whopping 1.9 yards per attempt were a big disappointment. Smith did manage to find Maurice Harris in a big way. Harris's 10 catches for 124 yards is better than he's ever gotten in an single year. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan, usually a very average QB outdoors, really stepped it up with 29 fantasy points, the third best QB total of the week. Even Julio Jones finally found the end zone, his first time this season. Jones is 2nd in yardage, while managing just 11th in fantasy points. Only he and Keenan Allen make the top 30 of fantasy WRs with 1 TD reception.

151.9 QB Rating

This week's QB rating leader isn't Mahomes or the aforementioned Ryan, who had an excellent day. It's not even Drew Brees, though his 137.0 rating was impressive. No, I'm talking about the one and only Nick Mullens, a guy that NONE of you (or us) had heard about before Thursday night. The undrafted free agent couldn't ask for a better or less caring opponent than the current iteration of the Oakland Raiders. Mullens averaged 14.6 yards per pass attempt, had a better than a 72% completion rate and threw for 3 TDs on only 22 attempts. Along the way, Mullens proved the George Kittle is a top TE, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Kittle has the 2nd most points overall at his position, thanks to a few of his peers having a bye week. Regardless of that, it's an impressive spot for a guy whose ADP was 129, basically Mr. Irrelevant in a lot of drafts. Word is that Mullens will start again next week against the Giants, an easy matchup. The following week the 49ers play the Bucs, I could easily see Mullens earning the starting job for the rest of the season, if he can keep playing like he did on Thursday night.

996 Rushing Yards

Tom Brady seems obsessed with getting to 1000 rushing yards, and was within one yard on Sunday night, prompting everyone to assume he was going to sneak for a TD. Instead, the Packers got a surprising, but ultimately futile, fourth-down goal-line stand. In the end, Brady wasn't going to hold any milestones, due to his ultimate rushing nemesis: taking a knee at the end of games. Three kneel-downs have left him at 996 career rushing yards. In his career, with a lead and less than 2 minutes to go, Brady has 135 rushing attempts for a net of -115 yards. By comparison, famous non-runner Peyton Manning has -104 yards in 137 carries in the same game situation. Peyton even managed to leave Denver with a net of -55 yards. I'm getting off track, but maybe that's because the Patriots and Packers left me with nothing to talk about fantasy-wise. A matchup between two of the best QBs in history left us with a combined 3 passing TDs and 553 passing yards between them. No, I'm not counting Julian Edelman's 37 yard toss to James White.

8 Consecutive 300 Yard Passing Games

At the risk of becoming a Patrick Mahomes/Adam Thielen/Todd Gurley column, I'm going to squeeze in a quick update on all three players in one blurb. First off, the good - Patrick Mahomes threw for 375 yards and another 3 TDs, extending his league lead in both categories. His interceptions now stand at 7 in the last 5 games. He's thrown at least one in each of those games, and that's a streak I'm sure he's eager to end. He is now just one game from tying Drew Brees' all time record of 9 straight games with 300 passing yards. Next week he faces the Cardinals, who are 7th in the league giving up passing yards, so matching Brees on this record won't be easy. Next, the bad - Adam Thielen, who went into the day tied with Calvin Johnson for 8 straight 100 yard receiving games. Thielen managed just 22 yards on 4 catches, though he found the end zone for the 6th straight game, saving his day for fantasy owners, but ending his streak. Finally the ugly, and I mean the Rams who finally lost a game. OK, ugly is a bit of a stretch, but Todd Gurley did put up his worst game of the season - just 13.90 points (also a stretch to call ugly). The silver lining for Gurley owners is that he is now far more likely to be playing for real in week 16, since the Rams no longer have control of home field in the playoffs.

2 of the Top 5 WRs Owned in Less than 2% of Yahoo Leagues

OK, this title is a mouthful, but what I'm getting at is that Adam Humphries (2% owned) and Curtis Samuel (1% owned) both finished in the top 5 points at WR this week (and for once, I don't expect anyone on Monday night to ruin those numbers). Humphries led his team in receiving, catching all 8 of his targets and finding the end zone twice. Amazingly for the Bucs, Mike Evans caught just one of his 10 targets. Sometimes it's a little Fitzmagic, sometimes it's a bit Fitztragic. Your mileage may vary. What I'm getting at is that RBs are just astoundingly more reliable this year. To find a player who's similarly available in Yahoo leagues, you must go to the RB18 of the week, Kapri Bibbs, owned in 3% of leagues, who managed 9.5 points on 4 touches. A look at the top 18 WRs would also include Cordarrelle Patterson (5%), Maurice Harris (0%), and Josh Doctson (8%). I suppose the right move here is to trade your unreliable WRs for some solid RBs before your league's trade deadline.

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford (fractured back) – Just checking in, Matt. It’s been 4 weeks since he’s been out there and since then the over-performing Jeff Driskel was sent to IR. The Lions are 3-8-1 and eliminated from the playoffs, so what’s the reason that Stafford is still around? Really, I feel like the Lions are just afraid to slap an IR tag on Stafford because that officially means that they are done. Does anyone think that Stafford will make more starts this year? I don’t.

Daniel Jones(moderate high-ankle sprain) – While you can recover from a more common lateral ankle sprain in less than a week, the usual recovery time for a high-ankle sprain can take as long as 6 weeks. A milder variety may take a couple of weeks if everything is going well and it seems like that’s what Jones has been diagnosed with here. As the Giants are currently 2-10, they are certainly in no danger of making the playoffs and the organization will want to take it easy with their future QB. All of this means that for the next few weeks, the man under center for the Giants will be none other than Eli Manning. What will the reintroduction of Manning do for the offense? It will likely bring with it more check downs to Barkley, lots of shorter passes, and a veteran presence that is able to mitigate some of the turnovers that the Giants were experiencing with Jones. That said, Manning was also turning over the ball at the beginning of the year, throwing 2 passing TDs but also 2 interceptions and responsible for 2 fumbles, all in just 2 games. Ultimately, I’m looking at Barkley and Engram as slightly upgraded and the rest as being an unpredictable mess. Best of luck with it!

Baker Mayfield (hand) – Mayfield smashed his throwing hand against Pittsburgh pass rusher Bud Dupree’s facemask on a long bomb downfield against the Steelers in Week 13. He went for X-Rays (which came back negative) and returned to finish the game with a glove on. As of Wednesday’s practice, his hand was heavily taped and he did not throw any passes. When he spoke to the media he revealed that he hasn’t thrown a pass since last Sunday, after the game. While it doesn’t yet seem like Mayfield will miss Week 14’s matchup against the Bengals – keep an eye out to make sure that Mayfield is a full participant in practice later this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) – Cook was forced to leave Monday Night Football after suffering an injury to his shoulder. This is an extremely high-profile injury because Cook was second in points among all running backs, to only Christian McCaffrey. We’re hearing a few things here. First, this was apparently not a shoulder injury at all, but rather an aggravation oh his pre-existing chest injury and a possible issue with his clavicle. Cook says, “I’ll be out there on Sunday”, and that may be true – but there is a strong possibility that he is either held out or limited, with rookie Alexander Mattison absorbing more snaps in Cook’s absence. The Vikings’ upcoming opponents Detroit (Week 14) and Green Bay (Week 16) both have bottom of the barrel defenses against the run. Whoever leads the backfield on Minnesota will certainly be a RB1/2. Watch this situation closely and I hope you were able to land Mattison if you are also a Cook owner. If for some reason he is still available out there on the wire, scoop him up!

Matt Breida (ankle) – Breida is practicing Wednesday and should play against New Orleans this weekend. Raheem Mostert was a monster against the Ravens last week, putting up 146 yards on 19 carries. With Tevin Coleman’s usage waning, this could mean a shakeup in the depth chart with Breida and Mostert on top for the rest of the season. Maybe. We need more time to flesh out this situation, but one thing is for sure – Mostert will continue to be utilized in this 3-headed run game after that performance.

Jordan Howard (shoulder) – The Eagles play on Monday Night Football this week, so Howard has a little extra time to get right. He hasn’t yet been cleared for contact but is expected to practice this week. In the meantime, Miles Sanders has taken over the bellcow role on the Eagles and gets a lot of work in the passing game, making him a solid RB2 for as long as this kind of volume stays consistent. If Howard was to come back, both would simply be FLEX plays and hard to count on.

James Conner(shoulder) – Pittsburgh has won 6 of their last 7 games heading into this weekend and will be doing everything they can to try and get their lead running back on the field against Arizona. For the first time in weeks, Conner put in a limited practice on Wednesday which raises hopes for him to practice in full Thursday or Friday and resume his normal role in the offense. That would be great for Conner owners, but if he is unable overcome his current limitations, Benny Snell Jr. will be a great RB2/3 in a matchup against the Cardinals, who have allowed the 10^th most fantasy points to RBs this season, at 23. Snell is averaging about 18 attempts for 80 yards and .5 TDs in relief of Conner. He does not have a role in the passing game, however, that will belong almost completely to Jaylen Samuel.

Damien/Darrel Williams (ribs/hamstring) – Looks like Damien has a better shot at suiting up for this week’s dance with the Patriots than Darrel does, but both have yet to practice so far this week. The Chiefs backfield is getting pretty messy lately, with rookie Darwin Thompson putting up 44 yards and 1 TD on 11 carries, and former Chief Spencer Ware also getting signed (likely as a direct answer to the injuries that we’re seeing weekly). Darwin is an interesting play if neither of the Williams’ boys end up healthy this weekend, but it’s just as likely that a rotation of backs removes predictable fantasy value from any of these guys.

Kalen Ballage (leg) – With Ballage off to IR, the Dolphins claimed Zach Zenner off waivers and they also have 2^nd year Patrick Laird and rookie Myles Gaskin. It may seem tempting to bet on a horse here, but my suggestion is to avoid the situation entirely.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julio Jones (shoulder) – Jones was a game-time decision last week but did not end up suiting up to close out the Thanksgiving football games. Instead, 2^nd year WR Russell Gage filled in and ended up with 5 receptions for 52 yards and 1 TD. He has been involved in the passing game even before Julio’s injury, ever since Sanu was traded to the Patriots. An interesting flex play or bench stash, he may not factor in heavily this week as Jones is already practicing in a limited fashion. Coach Dan Quinn expects him to play with no issues against the Panthers… who, by the way, have been giving up huge game to opposing WRs lately.

John Ross (clavicle) – Ross is back, and with Dalton under center. The Bengals are showing signs of life, believe it or not. It’s been an interesting story for him this year, as the injury he suffered in Week 4’s loss against the Steelers was almost life-threatening. Apparently, the sternoclavicular joint in Ross’ chest was just an inch away from puncturing an artery. He has made a full recovery, though, and the field-spreading speedster will most likely be back out there against the Browns on Sunday. As to whether it’s a smart move or not to start him in his first game back after being on IR for most of the season? Nah. Probably not. But hey, sometimes we don’t have the luxury of very many choices, and this is definitely a choice.

T.Y. Hilton (calf) – Hilton’s calf injury is lingering and at this point even he is thinking about shutting it down for the season. “If I can, I can.” He said. “If I can’t, then might just shut it down.” Rough stuff for the Colts, who are in desperate need of playmakers after losing Ebron (IR) and Mack (hand) recently as well. Marlon Mack is back at practice this week, though, and is aiming to play in Week 14’s game against the Bucs. I don’t see Hilton suiting up this week, or anytime soon, and in the meantime, there is always Zach Pascal, who will be a boom or bust replacement for Hilton. Last week against the Titans he exploded for 109 yards on 7 receptions. There just aren’t that many targets out there on the offense. Pretty much Pascal, Doyle, and whatever RB may be hanging around the line of scrimmage.

Adam Thielen (hamstring) – Bad news for Thielen: it looks like his injured (and then aggravated) hamstring is not getting any better. There are whispers of this being related to the same hamstring injury that he had several years ago, as well. He was practicing last week before being ruled out for the game, and this week he is not practicing so far. I think it’s likely that some sort of regression occurred, and he may be shut down for a few weeks. If that’s the case, there’s not a very good substitute on this team for Thielen’s production. Bisi Johnson hasn’t had a game above 43 yards all year and there is no one else to speak of in their WR corps. Those targets usually end up being absorbed by Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr., and the RBs.

Taylor Gabriel (concussion) – Gabriel remains in the league’s concussion protocol, and since he’s been out Anthony Miller has seen a resurgence since his poor early performance in the season. With over 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games, and a great performance which included 9 receptions for 140 yards against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, Miller is due for a TD. Remember last year? He’s looking like that same guy finally. Quite an interesting play this week against Dallas. Allen Robinson has also been performing well for the Bears… is this Trubisky late-season magic? Or just some talented receivers hitting their stride? Who cares, I’m taking the points.

TIGHT ENDS

TJ Hockenson (ankle) – Moved to IR, Hockensen started off the year with a bang, but quickly regressed to mediocre TE status when he realized that he was just a rookie tight end and they usually take a few years to develop to that level in the NFL. The Lions are now left at the position with former Steeler Jesse James catching passes from the 3^rd string QB, David Blough. Yikes.

Austin Hooper (knee) – Hooper has been out since Nov. 10 against the Saints, but he practiced on Wednesday in a limited capacity and has a chance to suit up in Week 14 against the Panthers. Hopefully you kept Hooper on your roster because the TE position is thin this year, and Hooper is an immediate top-5 start if he’s healthy, regardless of matchup. Another one to watch this week.

Greg Olsen (concussion)–Suffering a gnarly concussion in the Panthers Week 13 loss to the Redskins, Olsen may be out for a week or two. His backup, Ian Thomas, is a very talented 2^nd year TE that can put up numbers in fantasy. Filling in for Olsen, he quickly had 4 receptions for 24 yards. Does your TE depth have you down? Thomas may just be the answer to your prayers!