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Trends are a topic that I like to get into once the football season has had enough time to let them develop properly. Looking back on the past few weeks can tell us a lot about the future fantasy production of players, in some cases. I've selected 2 players each from QB/RB/WR positions to take a look at what direction I think they are headed in for the last half of the season. Those players trending up can also be seen as good targets to try and acquire before the trade deadline in your league(s). Percentage owned is taken from Yahoo as of 10/24/18.

QB

Russell Wilson (92% owned, #22 QB, 104.52 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 @ARI (19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 8.98 pts)

Week 5 LAR (13/21, 198 yds, 3 TDs, 19.92 pts)

Week 6 @OAK (17/23, 222 yds, 3 TDs, 21.88 pts)

• A rough start for the former QB1 in fantasy, but just rested through a bye week and now with Doug Baldwin healthy and performing (6/8, 91 yds in Week 6), Tyler Lockett locked in as the WR2, and a 3-headed rushing attack that is starting to come together, we could see Wilson come back to life in the 2^nd half of the season. In Week 8 he goes up against a Detroit passing defense that has allowed 8 TDs over the past 3 games. Russell Wilson should continue to pick up speed over the next few weeks and come close to his initial value as a top QB to own and start in fantasy.

Mitchell Trubisky (66% owned, #8 QB, 142.26 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 TB (19/26, 354 yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 43.46 pts)

Week 6 @MIA (22/31, 316 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 28.34 pts)

Week 7 NE (26/50, 333 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 33.42 pts)

• Trubisky has been an exceptional fantasy QB over the last 3 games that he has played, no question about it. The real question is whether or not these point totals are sustainable and if we should be worried about the rising trend of interceptions juxtaposed with the falling TDs. Both TB (#1) and NE (#7) are in the top 10 worst passing defenses in the league. He faces the Jets in Week 8, a middle of the road passing defense. I'm concerned about the trend above of less TDs and more INTs, but Trubisky is locked-in as a starting QB now in fantasy until he proves otherwise. He is definitely a SELL for me though, if you have another good option it may be worth it to find a trade partner before he comes back down to Earth.

RB

David Johnson (100% owned, #11 RB, 82.10 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @SF (18/55 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/16 rec/yds, 19.10 pts)

Week 6 @MIN (18/54 rush/yds, 1 TD, 2/15 rec/yds, 10.90 pts)

Week 7 DEN (14/39 rush/yds, 3/31 rec/yds, 7.00 pts)

• At first glance, #11 RB isn’t so bad, but it is for David Johnson. Drafted top 3 for the past few years, Johnson enjoyed much success with former coach Bruce Arians calling the shots in Arizona. Johnson also had a seasoned QB under center. He may be able to break the top 10 and start performing at a high level again with the firing of OC Mike McCoy and switch to one of Arians’ pupils, Byron Leftwich, taking over offensive play calling duties. David Johnson faces a porous opponent Week 8 in the 49ers, who are currently the 7^th worst rushing defense, allowing just under 100 yards and 1 TD per game on average. Things should turn around immediately for Johnson and get even better after the Cardinals' bye week. This is likely the lowest that David Johnson's value will be for the next few years.

Latavius Murray (79% owned, #24 RB, 60.70 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @PHI (11/42 rush/yds, 2/14 rec/yds, 5.6 pts)

Week 6 ARI (24/155 rush/yds, 1 TD, 1/3 rec/yds, 21.80 pts)

Week 7 @NYJ (15/69 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/14 rec/yds, 20.30 pts)

• The latest news on Dalvin Cook is that he will be out through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. That means Murray has at least two more weeks to lead the backfield, and he has been impressing with good consistency over the past couple of games. Week 8’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have been great against the run (no one has gone over 80 yards against them) but Murray will still have some opportunities at the goal-line to collect fantasy points and then faces up against a generous Lions’ rushing defense. With bye weeks and injuries hitting now over the middle of the season, Murray is an excellent play until Cook gets healthy enough to return.

WR

Emmanuel Sanders (96% owned, #3 WR, 94.72 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @NYJ (9/72 rec/yds, 7.20 pts)

Week 6 LAR (7/115 rec/yds, 1 TD, 17.50 pts)

Week 7 @ARI (6/102 rec/yds, 1 TD, 21.32 pts)

• Sanders was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 7, and he has clearly been the best WR on the Broncos this season. In fact, he is sitting right at #3 among all WRs in fantasy points so far in standard leagues. There was some concern over his ankle injury late in the game against the Cardinals, but he has since been removed from the injury report and should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 8 who are giving up a ton of yards to opposing receivers. Sanders should continue to feast!

Jordy Nelson (71% owned, #37 WR, 52.30 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 CLE (5/48 rec/yds, 1 TD, 12.80 pts)

Week 5 @LAC (4/43 rec/yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts)

Week 6 SEA (2/6 rec/yds, 0.60 pts)

• Nelson has had a big game this season (Week 3: 6/173 rec/yds) and scored 3 TDs so far, but his role has been chaotic at best on the Raiders – certainly an accurate reflection of the state of the team in general. With former WR1 Amari Cooper having been traded to the Cowboys, Jordy Nelson should immediately take over that position and his share of targets should increase. In weeks 3 (23.3 pts) and 4 (12.8 pts) Nelson had 8 targets each and his highest fantasy totals of the season. We can use this as a measuring stick to determine that his fantasy production going forward should be between 10 and 20 points per game in a standard league Grab him off the wire or try and buy him low if possible.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

8 Straight Games of 100+ Receiving Yards

I've been keeping track of a couple of streaks here in the column lately, and both of them were extended on Sunday. First off, Adam Thielen matched Calvin Johnson's mark of 8 straight games with 100 receiving yards. It's also the new record for the start of a season. Thielen is the top scoring WR in fantasy this year (without ever hitting the 20 point mark), but his streak still comes up well short of Calvin Johnson's in one noticeable aspect. Megatron had 329 more yards during his streak, which is 35% more than Thielen. Also on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes continued his streak of 300 yard passing games, making it 7 in a row. He's still a couple games short of Drew Brees' record of 9 games, which he's done twice. Mahomes now leads the NFL with 2526 Passing Yards and 26 TDs. He's throwing a TD every 9.1% of his pass attempts and is leading all fantasy QBs by over 3 points per game.

3 Straight Games with 2 TDs

James Conner continues to be a marvel for the Steelers and now sits atop the crowded tier 2 RBs in fantasy points. Todd Gurley still has 41% more points than Conner, more on that in a moment. Conner's two TDs on Sunday made it three games in a row with two TDs, which is a first in franchise history. Quite a remarkable feat on a team like the Steelers, who have seen their share of hall of fame running backs. Conner is averaging 29.5 points per game over that stretch, which has prompted a lot of "Le'Veon who?" talk this year. Personally, I don't think the fighting is necessary or helpful. It may not be good from a fantasy perspective, but imagine the embarrassment of riches the Steelers will have at their disposal for the second half of the season when Bell finally reports.

15 TDs on the Season

Todd Gurley already has 15 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in only 8 games. It could have been 16, and would have been nice for my fantasy team, but I applaud Gurley on his smart move. In the middle of a play, he was well aware that the only way to lose the game was to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Maybe Ty Montgomery can learn something from Gurley. Thus, the Rams are now 8-0, in part because their players are more aware of the game situation than their opponents. Maybe the Steelers and Browns can learn something too! Back to Gurley, he has more TDs than any other player had last season (Gurley had 19), and more than all but 8 players' season totals going back to 2012. He already has passed everyone's total from 2015. Gurley may have passed on a touchdown on Sunday, but he's still going to have a good shot at the single season record of 31.

2550 Career Points

I certainly wind up with a lot of entries about kickers for as much as I like to poke fun at them. This time though, it's definitely out of respect for a future hall of famer. Adam Vinatieri, who told his family not to travel to Oakland because he wasn't even sure if he'd play this week, now owns the career scoring record with 2550 total points. He's made 829 of his 846 extra point attempts, seen the extra point move back to no longer be a gimme, and still maintained a 94.4% conversion rate. He's made 573 field goals on 679 attempts and has been kicking since before South Park was a television show. Congrats to Adam Vinatieri, the most prolific kicker in a game that, by its name, you would think would have a lot more to do with kicking.

8 Top D/STs all Under 50% Owned

Through Sunday's games, the weekly leaders at D/ST once again prove that relying on one team every week is not likely to work, but then again, it's hard to tell what will. Of the top 8 D/STs, Washington & Carolina are the most owned at 45%. Only one of those teams is owned in our drinkfive league. It feels counter-intuitive when you have teams like the Rams, Texans and Bears that you don't want to let go, but streaming defenses is the way to go. The top 4 point scoring teams all matched up against teams that gave up the 12th most points, or more. Pay attention to matchups and the waiver wire and don't miss out on these points that wind up sitting on the waiver wire. Or, we could just get rid of the randomness of a kicker and defense from fantasy football altogether.

Big news out of New England with an uncharacteristic move to bring in some much-needed wide receiver depth. The Patriots, who are typically very stingy trading draft capital, shocked many by giving up a 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft to Atlanta in exchange for Mohamed Sanu.

To me, this seems like a win/win for both sides. New England gets a veteran receiver who has put up consistent fantasy numbers while on the Falcons (at least 600yds and 4 TDs last three years), and Atlanta gets a high draft pick for a WR3. Considering the value of the draft pick you can almost guarantee Sanu will be a valuable part of this offense. He looks to be thrust into the WR2 position behind Edelman, though Sanu brings the big body (6’1” 211#) New England has been missing.

Another benefit for New England is that Sanu’s health has been great for most of his career. In the last three seasons with Atlanta, Sanu only missed 2 games, and he started all 16 last year. Considering the Patriots' issues with Josh Gordon not being 100%, Phillip Dorsett missing multiple games, N’keal Harry being on IR up to this point, and taking a shot at AB only to have that blow up, this move is safe and looks to be just what the best team in football needs. With all of that in mind, he is also a competent passer (7/8, 233 yds 4 TD). The Patriots have a keeper here!

Webster's defines a trend as: "the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change". Here at drinkfive.com, we generally like trends that show 3 weeks of an uptick or regression of player's usage, effectiveness or general point scoring. Check out the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to hear a more in-depth discussion about all of these players. All fantasy point totals are based on Yahoo standard scoring, unless otherwise indicated.

Aaron Rodgers, Wk 5 @ DAL 9.42, Wk 6 vs DET 19.32, Wk 7 vs OAK 43.76.

This year, Aaron Rodgers has not quite looked like himself. For the first 6 weeks, he only had one game above 20 points. His utterly dominant performance in Week 7 seems to indicate that he’s gotten back on track. Over the past three weeks, he’s gone from his lowest total (mainly due to Aaron Jones’ huge game in Dallas) up to arguably his best game of his career last week against Oakland. The Packers offense did look pretty terrible to start the season, and personally I felt that it was the fault of the play calling. It seems like this has improved, and some of Rodgers’ passing numbers are looking pretty good. He has 12.5 yards per completion, his best since 2014 when he was an All-pro. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt is also the highest it’s been since 2014 (the Pack went 12-4 that season). As long as his receiving group doesn’t just completely fall apart (he’ll eventually get Davante Adams back), he should continue to creep up the QB list – he’s currently the QB7 in fantasy football.

David Montgomery, Wk 4 vs MIN 6.70, Wk 5 @ OAK 9.60, Wk 7 vs NO -0.10.

Montgomery was quite a hyped back coming into the season, and he’s still owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, but the Bears run game has disappeared. Montgomery’s carries have gone from a season high of 21 in Wk 4 down to 11 and then just 2 carries last week. The Bears have totally abandoned the run game, and have been heavily criticized by the Chicago media because of it. Aside from a random score in Week 5, he has belonged firmly on your bench, which is not befitting of a player who has this kind of ownership share in leagues. The Bears upcoming games are vs LAC, @PHI and vs DET. The Chargers and Lions are both giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs, but I have no faith in the team to run the ball consistently. Not knowing what to expect from this situation, I suggest just staying away from it – don’t be tempted by good matchups or thinking that outside pressure will change the way they call plays.

Chase Edmonds, Wk 5 @ CIN 14.60, Wk 6 vs ATL 12.70, Wk 7 @ NYG 33.00.

Edmonds has been very impressive the last 3 weeks, and coincidentally (or not), the Cardinals have won all 3 of those games. David Johnson was limited last week with a back injury (he should ask Jalen Ramsey about his guy…), but now he’s missing practice with an ankle injury, so I expect to see more Edmonds in Week 8. Edmonds snap percentage had been varying from about 10-40% with Johnson in, but with him out, he was in on 94% of offensive snaps last week. Sure, the Cardinals signed Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, but they’re just guys to fill out the roster. Edmonds has 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and will be full steam ahead, even against a tough New Orleans team, who will find the Cardinals a much tougher opponent than the one they faced last week.

John Brown, Wk 4 vs NE 6.90, Wk 5 @TEN 7.50, Wk 7 vs MIA 14.30.

The Bills offense has been a bit shaky, but John Brown has remained steady. He’s got 5 catches per game during this stretch, and his yardage has gone up in each game, from 69 to 75 to 83 last week with a TD tacked on. Brown is on the field for 80+% of snaps every game, with two of the last three going above 90%. He led the team in targets the last 2 weeks and is just 1 behind Cole Beasley for the team lead in targets for the season. He has a significant lead on receiving yards on the team this year. Brown should continue to trend in the right direction as he has great matchups coming up. His next 3 games are vs PHI, vs WAS and @CLE. The Eagles and Redskins are both in the top 10 giving up points to WRs, and Cleveland is 19th. Brown is the WR22 in standard scoring this year, keep him in your lineup for the time being.

Larry Fitzgerald, Wk 5 @CIN 5.80, Wk 6 vs ATL 6.90, Wk 7 @NYG 1.20.

Fitz started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games and 2 TDs in his first 3, but has not done a lot since then. His yardage high is just 69 during the last 5 weeks, and that came against a really soft Atlanta defense. Last week against the Giants, who are just as soft, he managed just one catch for 12 yards, though that probably had more to do with the way the game was going and how well the Cardinals were running the ball. Regardless, he often trails the RBs in receiving yardage and it’s possible that his age is finally catching up with him. He has to play in New Orleans this week and then plays the 49ers twice in the following three weeks. These are all bad matchups for him and he should probably be on your bench, or the trading block, if you can drum up any interest.