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Some of these are hot takes, I admit it. But I think that the majority will pan out as being starts or sits just beyond the range of the fantasy production you would expect for those categories. You don't win the championship by being the most conservative team in the league, after all. Check out the drinkfive rankings here on the site as well for a more in-depth view at how I look at the relevant players this year. Any stats listed are according to my Half-PPR rankings as of Wednesday, September 22. Good luck and cheers!

RBs

Start Chase Edmonds (ranked RB20) - Edmonds is going up against a Jacksonville defensive unit in poor shape this week. He is in fact the 20th highest scoring RB in fantasy points so far this season (22.6 pts). His usage has been consistent in the receiving game with at least 4 receptions in each match so far, and he has notched at least 75 all-purpose yards in both weeks 1 and 2 as well. The Jags are currently allowing 25.1 points to opposing RBs and so it’s not tough at all for me to predict 81 yards and a TD for Edmonds this week - projecting a total of 16.1 in half-PPR. Nice game, Chase.

MORE STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell (if healthy)

Sit Ty’Son Williams (ranked RB24) - Williams is going up against the porous Lions defense that both Elijah Mitchell and Aaron Jones were able to pick apart over the first two weeks of the season. Sounds great on paper, but I have to be contrarian with this one. Both weeks he struggled in key situations (Week 1’s blown coverage to lead to the strip sack on Lamar Jackson, and Week 2’s goal-line fumble that was luckily recovered by teammate Devin Duvernay). With more time to learn the playbook, I have to imagine that the Ravens will continue to lean on Murray and Freeman and the snap count will shift accordingly. Projecting a disappointing 73 yards total with no TDs. 8.3 fantasy points.

MORE SITS: Devin Singletary, Jamaal Williams, J.D. McKissic

WRs

Start Ja’Marr Chase (ranked WR27) - Chase has flashed big play ability with good performances over weeks 1 and 2 for a total of 30.8 fantasy points which makes him the WR14 overall so far this season. Normally, going up against the Steelers defense would be a major problem for young receivers, but recent injuries to outstanding contributors like T.J. Watt and Joe Haden make it a little more palatable. We saw the Raiders make progress down the field through the air and I expect that the Bengals will also find some success there if key defensive players are not healthy enough to start this weekend. Projecting 67 yards and a TD on limited receptions for a total of 14.2 fantasy points.

MORE STARTS: Rondale Moore, Tim Patrick, Darnell Mooney

Sit DeVonta Smith (ranked WR 30) - Smith led all Eagles receivers in targets over the past two games, if that means anything. It’s certainly building some hype for the rookie receiver. He did have a great performance in week 1, putting up 16.1 fantasy points against Atlanta, but fell back to Earth in week 2 with only 16 yards on 2 receptions. Yikes. I continue to see Smith being chased as a WR3 or FLEX start against Dallas, but he is only the WR46 on the year in total fantasy points and a rookie to boot. And on the Eagles. Don’t do it. Projecting more yardage and receptions than last week but still a low output at 4.7 fantasy points.

MORE SITS: Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones, Brandin Cooks

Bit of a rough week going 1-2 on the drinkfive best bets last week. Let’s look to bounce back in week 3 with a little bit more knowledge and some great trends to take advantage of. Underdogs regressed a little bit in week 2, however on the season dogs are an impressive 21-11 ATS. It’s still early in the season but there is a trend worth noting that is gaining some legs in the sports betting community; home field advantage does not seem to be as much of an advantage. Home teams are 16-16 straight up and 13-19 ATS through the first two weeks. What is eye opening, and worth tracking, is that home favorites are only 5-13 heading into week 3. 11 of the 16 games in week 3 have home favorites. High performing dogs plus underperforming home favorites; it’s a contrarian’s wet dream!

Miami +4.5 at Las Vegas:

The line for this game has been all over the place this week as both teams had questions regarding their quarterbacks. As of writing this the line is up to 4.5 and I am jumping on what I think is a severe over reaction. Miami got shut out last week and the Raiders are 2-0 so immediately there is contrarian value. Even though this line has bounced around due to injury concerns it opened at 5.5 and, even with clarity on the starting QB situation for both teams, it's down to 4.5. Despite having a backup QB start and only 26% of the tickets the line has never come close to going back to the original open of 5.5. I also see this as an overreaction play. Miami was shutout last week while there is suddenly, and embarrassingly, MVP talk surrounding Derek Carr after the Raiders 2-0 start. If that doesn’t scream over reaction I don’t know what does. The icing on top is Gruden’s 31% ATS record after multiple straight up wins.

Green Bay +3.5 at San Francisco:

There is some recent history between the Packers and the 49ers out in San Francisco. This will be the fourth meeting in 3 years at Levi’s Stadium. In 2019 the 49ers took care of business, while last year the Packers got their revenge. This is a rare popular dog with 63% of the bets coming in on the Packers and the line movement reflects that after dropping from 4 to its current line of 3. Tracking the line, I have seen what appears to be sharp buyback at 3, which is why I am recommending this pick at 3.5. As of writing this the line is juiced -120 to the favorite so I think there is a good chance 3.5 shows back up. There are a couple of trends that help tip the scales for me in this one too. Shanahan is only 22% (2-7 ATS) in his first game at home after coming off a multi-game road trip and he is only 31% ATS as a favorite in the last 27 games. Ultimately it would not surprise me to see Green Bay win this one outright, so of course I am going to take the points. San Francisco is dealing with tons of injuries and has not had a particularly confident win yet this season. Green Bay may have let the Lions stick around a bit longer than anticipated, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers did what future Hall of Famers do and found a way to confidently win the game with what was given to him. 

Tampa Bay -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams:

Tampa Bay is the public play and I am jumping on the bandwagon. There is a pro system that I like to follow on this one too; that is the dog to favorite system. Tampa Bay opened up as a +1.5 point road dog, however this line has been flipped and now Tampa is the -1.5 favorite. The dog to favorite system can be tricky, but ultimately it boils down to line movement and the public rarely moves lines, sharps move lines. The line currently sits at 1.5 and honestly, I am going to wait until the weekend to see if there is some buy back on the Rams now that it has moved so much. Aside from the line movement the Buccaneers are playing great football and are enjoying a 10 game winning streak dating back to last season. The Rams have looked good being led by Matt Stafford this year, but ultimately, they don’t have a signature win yet. Wins against Chicago and Indianapolis aren’t enough for me to fade the GOAT and reigning Super Bowl Champs. 

There is a profitable 0-2 ATS trend worth considering this week with 5 teams starting the season 0-2 ATS. Over the last 5 seasons teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in week 3. Washington, New York Jets, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Atlanta all fit the trend this week. I could make an argument for Atlanta +3 at the New York Giants and Washington is clearly the sharp play at Buffalo after opening +9 and being bet down to +7/+7.5. Kansas City joining that list is honestly what makes the Chiefs Chargers game tough for me. KC has been bad ATS for longer than 2 games and ultimately, I do think the Chargers have value at 6.5, so do the books apparently who are not moving the line to the key number of 7 despite 71% of the bets and 79% of the money on the Chiefs. 

Two weeks in the books, and almost 1/3^rd of the pool has been eliminated. Cleveland gave me a little bit of a scare when they trailed the Texans briefly last Sunday. But, we managed to get both picks through again. Seattle and Pittsburgh caused the most casualties last week, with no huge upsets occurring. After watching the Thursday game this week, I think I may have made a strategical error in not locking in a Panthers pick while I could. I stayed away because I'm not a Sam Darnold believer yet. After watching the Panthers offense for the first time this year, I'm not sure I will be able to trust them to win against any opponent other than Houston playing a rookie backup QB.

The Denver Broncos are my top pick this week. After starting the first two weeks on the road against a couple of tomato cans they return for their home opener to face the hapless Jets. That Denver crowd should be fired up and loud after a 2-0 start and that defense will cause fits for rookie Zach Wilson. Teddy Bridgewater should have another good game as well against a week Jets secondary.

I like the Broncos so much I almost wanted to use them for both picks. But alas strange things can happen in the NFL, so I want to spread out my eggs a little bit. My second pick for the week is the Arizona Cardinals. After narrowly escaping the Vikings last week on a missed field goal at the end of the game the Cardinals travel to Jacksonville to feast on the winless Jags. The undefeated Cardinals are just too powerful on offense for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to hang.

Lots of good games this weekend should make for a fun Sunday!

Cheers! Drink Five!

            ENTRY #1                               ENTRY #2

            RAMS                                      BUCCANEERS

            BUCCANEERS                       BROWNS

            BRONCOS                              CARDINALS