Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!

 

Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

 

5) Rashard Higgins (CLE) - 3% owned - Higgins was signed off the Browns practice squad last week and made an immediate impact catching 7 of 11 targets for 95 yards. It was recently announced that Corey Coleman has a broken hand which means Higgins should continue to see opportunities going forward making him worth a flier.

 

4) Miami DST (MIA) - 5% owned - Miami will travel to play against the lowly New York Jets this week which means there is a good chance they won't get scored on much and should come away with a turnover or two. The Jets have already turned the ball over 4 times to start this season.

 

3) Marqise Lee (JAX) - 34% owned - Lee is the beneficiary of Allen Robinson's season-ending ACL injury and he should see a healthy amount of targets as the Jaguars primary receiver.

 

2) Allen Hurns (JAX) - 26% owned - Despite being the number two option in Jacksonville I like Hurns a notch above Marqise Lee due to his big-play ability although in PPR formats they are closer in value.

 

1) Chris Thompson (WAS) - 30% owned - Thompson has been on a tear to start the season rushing 6 times for 81 yards and 2 TDs and adding 7 catches on 12 targets for another 81 yards and a score. He is a must grab in PPR formats and is looking to have value in standard if given additional touches going forward.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve got another week of data on this rookie crop, so we’re starting to get a better idea of who these guys are. Hopefully all of your teams are off to 2-0 starts, but obviously not everyone’s is. The key if you’ve started 0-2 is not to panic (unless you’re the Bengals). Be patient with your stud players. I’m looking at you owners of OBJ, Le’Veon Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Kirk Cousins, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Eifert. Speaking of Tyler Eifert & the Bengals, they did in fact panic after an 0-2 start, and have replaced their offensive coordinator with former Dolphins’ OC Bill Lazor. Hopefully this can jump-start the offense and help Eifert and Joe Mixon get going. Of course Mixon needs to get on the field more for that to happen. Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect in week 3…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 3: @LAC): You have to play Kareem Hunt. He’s the number one scoring running back so far by a wide margin, and this week he faces a defense that just allowed 122 yards rushing to Jay Ajayi last weekend. Hunt is decidedly a different style runner than Ajayi, but he should have success running in this matchup. TD regression is coming at some point for Hunt, but he should be a locked in RB1 in your lineups right now.

 

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. NO): McCaffrey hasn’t gotten off to the start that most fantasy owners had hoped he would, ranking as the RB27 in PPR leagues so far. His usage has been strong, but he hasn’t made any of the spectacular plays we were used to from him at Stanford. Things should get better this week. New Orleans hasn’t shown they can cover anyone. They’ve allowed 92.5 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, and CMC should see extra passing game targets with Greg Olsen out. This game is a real opportunity for McCaffrey to blow up. He should be at least a solid RB2 with week-winning upside if things go his way.

 

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): Cook managed a surprisingly solid 5.3 yards per carry against a normally stout Steelers front despite having Case Keenum under center. The Steelers were without Stephon Tuitt on their defensive line, but it was impressive from Cook nonetheless. His fantasy totals weren’t inspiring since he saw just 12 carries in a lopsided loss and he was vultured at the goal line by CJ Ham, but his performance showed that he can succeed against good defenses. Tampa isn’t quite as stingy as Pittsburgh typically is, and it sounds like there is a good chance that Sam Bradford will return in this one. Even if Bradford is out, Cook should put up RB2 numbers.

 

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Fournette faces a tough matchup this week, so he’s more of a volume RB2, but with a score each week so far he should be in your lineup. The Ravens allowed the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points last year, and the 11^th-fewest so far in 2017, but Fournette has seen 40 carries and 8 targets already. As long as the volume keeps up, and it should, Leonard should be able to post a respectable line again.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Kizer is a borderline option in 2-QB leagues this week, and is an interesting DFS tournament play with a meager $5,000 cost on DraftKings. The Colts have allowed over 300 passing yards in each of their first two games with top corner Vontae Davis sidelined, to Jared Goff and Carson Palmer. If Davis is out again, Kizer makes for an interesting play now that he has found a trusted possession receiver in Rashard Higgins. The Colts have stifled the running game, allowing just 2.73 yards per carry and have forced teams to throw instead. The throwing has worked out pretty well for those teams. I don’t know that I’d expect 300 passing yards out of Kizer, but I think he’ll post his best yardage total to date, and his rushing skill gives him an added boost. He’s worth considering if you are struggling for a second QB this week.

 

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 3: @Ten.): Carson put the Seahawks on his back in week 2, and may have earned the starting RB job in the process. The Titans’ run defense isn’t an easy matchup this week. They allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points in the league last year, and although they are off to a slower start in 2017 they held the Jacksonville running backs to 3.3 yards per carry. In addition to the tough matchup, there is always the chance that Rawls plays more as he gets healthier, and Carson was barely used in the passing game with Prosise around to handle 3^rd down work. I see Carson as a risky flex play this week, but one with big upside if the game script is in Seattle’s favor.

 

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Dalvin Cook above, the Steelers’ defense has been pretty stout against opposing runners, but they have been susceptible to receiving yards out of the backfield. Pittsburgh allowed the 4^th-most RB receiving yardage and the 13^th-most receptions to the position a year ago. This is a matchup that already favors Cohen over his backfield mate Jordan Howard, and Howard is battling a shoulder injury that had him in a sling after their last game. The rookie’s usage has been outstanding through 2 weeks, with 12 rush attempts and 16 catches on 21 targets. He should be a strong PPR flex option once again.

 

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 3: @SF): Kupp saw the same 6 targets in week 2 that he did in week 1, but he did quite a bit less with them. I got ahead of myself by calling him a ‘Rookie to Start’ last week. He gets another solid matchup this week, but I won’t make the mistake of going all in on him this time. The 49ers have been improved against WRs so far compared to 2016, but they’ve still been in the bottom half of the league against the position. Kupp should see another 6-7 targets, which puts him firmly on the flex radar again, especially in PPR leagues. Give him a slight bump up if both 49ers safties are out.

 

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Golladay is going to remain a boom-or-bust option for the time being, and he’s shown both extremes through 2 weeks. Atlanta has a talented secondary and has allowed just 4 completions of 20+ yards so far this season, but they did struggle to contain Green Bay’s wide receivers late in their win over the Packers. What you do with Golladay depends on what your other options are, but he’s a volatile flex play for deeper leagues.

 

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 3: @Phi.): He’s in the concussion protocol at the moment, so there’s a chance he doesn’t play this week, but most updates I’ve seen are suggesting he’ll be able to go. He’ll likely need a TD to return real value as a streaming TE, and the Eagles had allowed just 4 TE touchdowns in their last 17 games before being shredded by Zeus last Sunday. Engram has some appeal as a streamer in deeper PPR leagues, as 4-40 seems like something he can keep putting up, especially if Brandon Marshall continues to struggle. The Giants’ protection issues are making it hard for Eli to throw anything down the field, so Engram will continue to make his living on shorter catches. Engram is a borderline top-15 option this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Even against New England’s defense, which has allowed 362 passing yards per game so far, Watson would be a shaky QB2 option. He salvaged his fantasy day last week with a 50-yard TD run, but plays like that are pretty fluky, and Bill Belichick knows how to gamplan for rookie QBs. In the last 10 games the Patriots have played against a rookie QB, New England is 9-1 and has allowed just 8 total TDs to those rookie signal callers.

 

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 3: @GB): While it was nice to see Mixon actually outperform Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard in week 2, the timeshare continues to hamper his upside. He could be worth a dart throw in GPP daily tournaments after seeing what Atlanta’s backs did to Green Bay (145 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs), but the Cincy offense hasn’t been anywhere near as effective as Atlanta’s. The Bengals did swap offensive coordinators this week, promoting QB coach Bill Lazor to the OC position. Hopefully Lazor will start to get Mixon more involved, but in his initial media session after getting the promotion, he didn’t really clarify what his plans were for the RB position. He said that he hadn’t done a 3-back committee before, “but that’s where we’ve been so far.” I’ll need to see Lazor actually increase Mixon’s role in a game before I trust him in season-long leagues.

 

RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Foreman saw a decent workload last week, but week 3 may be a different story. Houston was able to pound the ball on the ground thanks to the stagnant Bengals’ offense keeping the game close. The Texans are likely to be playing from much further behind this week going to New England. If Houston is in catch-up mode, it should be mostly Lamar Miller and a little Tyler Ervin sprinkled in. Foreman offers nothing in the passing game. If you play D’Onta, you’re counting on a TD that is unlikely to come.

 

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): This outlook could change if Rob Kelly has a setback or winds up missing the game Sunday, but if Kelley plays you’d have to expect ‘Fat Rob’ to start. The Raiders are vulnerable against the run, so Perine becomes a flex play option if Kelley sits. He’s a worse option in PPR leagues than in standard, since he offers little in the passing game. Oakland allowed the 9th-most RB points last season, and the 6^th-most rushing yards, and they just allowed the lowly Jets’ running backs to post 95 yards on 21 carries (4.5 ypc). If Kelley is a go, Perine likely won’t see enough work to be started.

 

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): The Browns may look like a good matchup on paper, but Mack is still working well behind Frank Gore, and a Brissett-led offense is unlikely to make this game a blowout win where he’ll get garbage time run. Gore out-touched Mack 14-7 last week and out-gained him 46-8. Outside of a 24-yard carry in week one, Mack has a total of 15 carries for negative-3 yards.

 

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but even though the Jets have claimed that this will be a 3-man committee going forward, Elijah McGuire is not someone you should be considering for your fantasy lineup. The offense is a mess for the Jets so far, and a 6^th-round rookie RB isn’t going to be the guy to jump start it.

 

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): This is an easy decision now that Davis has been ruled out with a hamstring issue. I likely would have recommended you to sit him against the Legion of Boom even if he were going to play.

 

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 3: @Chi.): JJSS played 51% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps in week 2, but saw just 4 targets and gained only 16 yards. The TD was nice, but it’s not something to expect every week based on his usage up to this point. He has received 2-of-8 red zone targets that Ben has dished out so far, so he may find some stray TDs here or there, but the weekly chances aren’t great and he won’t put up enough yardage to buoy his point totals whether it’s in a season-long league or DFS. The Steelers are also likely to lean on the run game in this one as a 7.5-point road favorite. Steer clear.

 

WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 3: @GB): Ross finally got on the field last week, but was given just one touch, a rushing attempt. Green Bay’s secondary is beatable, allowing the most WR points in the NFL a year ago, but Cincinnati’s offense just hasn’t gotten anything going on offense to make you think they’ll take full advantage here. Ross hasn’t been involved enough so far to use anywhere. Hopefully Lazor gets him more involved, but you should avoid Ross for now.

 

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The last thing Zay Jones needed after opening the season with a 3-39 line on 10 targets in the first two weeks was a meeting with Denver’s corners. That’s exactly what he’ll get this week. There’s no reason to use Zay in any format against the best CB group in the league.

 

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 3: @Ind.): The Colts have allowed 60+ yards per week to TEs so far, but have also allowed just 3 receptions per week to them. Njoku is still only playing about half of the offensive snaps and is splitting work with Seth DeValve, who seems the more likely Browns’ TE to get hit with a deep ball after posting a 49-yard catch last week. Njoku is a TD dart throw this week, and there are better options available. He won’t see enough volume to be a punt play in DFS tournaments either.

 

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 3: @Min.): Howard ran just 11 pass routes last week despite playing more snaps than Cameron Brate, who ran 22 pass routes. He played more because the game script called for a lot of running, and Howard is the superior blocker. The volume simply isn’t going to be there for Howard early on this year if they are going to use him as blocker this much.

 

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 3: @SF): Everett has made a big impact every time the ball is thrown his way, posting 4 catches for 134 yards on just 4 targets so far, but he’s still being more than doubled in snap count by teammate Tyler Higbee, and he’s battling through a thigh injury. To make matters worse for him, the 49ers have been much improved so far against tight ends this year, holding Greg Olsen to 2-18 and Jimmy Graham to 1-1. That’s right…3 catches for 19 yards between two of the best tight ends in the game. There will be better spots to take a shot on Everett.

 

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Kittle rarely leaves the field, but he’s seen just 8 targets through 2 games and is dealing with a couple of injuries. He also faces a Rams’ defense that ranked 6^th against tight ends last year, and hasn’t allowed a TD to the position yet this year. There’s not enough upside to try him in DFS, and too much downside to try him in season-long leagues.

 

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 3: @Car.): Kamara is probably a better option for DFS tournaments than for season-long leagues this week. The Panthers ranked 7^th last year in limiting RB fantasy points, and 5^th so far this year, but they allowed the 3rd-most RB catches in ’16 and are tied for 4th-most allowed so far this year. Kamara is the best receiving back the Saints have, and they are a 5.5-point underdog on the road. I’d expect Alvin to get a lot of run, and likely catch 6+ passes. He’s been targeted 13 times in the first 2 weeks.

 

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): With Corey Davis sidelined by a hamstring issue, I’d expect Taywan Taylor to be the guy who benefits the most in terms of playing time. In week 2, it was Jonnu Smith who benefitted from Davis’s injury, playing 37 offensive snaps and scoring his first career TD, but the Titans were playing from ahead all day. I’d expect Taywan to play a bunch this week. Some are speculating that it will be Eric Decker in the slot and Taywan outside since Decker played there a lot in New York, but Taywan spent more time in the slot in camp while Davis was out. The reason this matters is because the Seahawks’ weak link in the secondary is slot corner Jeremy Lane. Whoever gets to face off with him will be the best matchup the Titans have in the passing game. If that guy is Taywan, he would be in line for a strong day. He’s a sneaky DFS tournament punt play.

 

WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Samuel saw his first targets of the year in week 2, and with Olsen hurt, it’s likely he becomes a bigger part of the offense. The Saints’ pass defense has been abysmal, and Samuel has a trait that Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin lack…speed. There’s a real chance he gets behind the defense for a big play or two. With just 3 targets on the year, he’s probably not to be trusted as anything more than a DFS punt play, but he costs just the minimum in DraftKings and has some nice upside.

 

TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): As spelled out in the Taywan Taylor description above, I’m not really on Jonnu for this week. Sure, he could find another TD, but Seattle is stingy to tight ends. I list him here because I think he’s a great dynasty league stash at this point. Delanie Walker is 33 years old, and has just one more year left on his contract. Jonnu is quickly earning the coaching staff’s trust with offensive snap percentages of 38% and 54% in the first two weeks. He’s also looked every bit the part of Walker’s heir apparent. I think he has a chance to be a really good player, and is in an ascending offense with Mariota, Derrick Henry, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor around. Stash him if you can.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report all week and check back before kickoffs to see if there are any surprise inactives. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

 

11/11, 5 TD in the Red Zone

 

Thursday night's game provided us with tons of big numbers (thank you Gurley, Watkins, Hyde, Garcon) but the most impressive numbers that I saw are Jared Goff's red zone passing stats. Through three games, he's a perfect 11/11 passing in the red zone for 82 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Rams barely eeked out a win in San Francisco, but they're now 2-1 behind impressive performances from lots of young players, not to mention the head coach. Goff has already matched his TD total from last season,  but only in 3 games instead of 7. With just one pick on the year, he's looking like one of the most improved rookies from last year, and the Rams are in a good position in a very winnable division.

 

2 Pick Sixes...in 10 Years!

 

Aaron Rodgers threw only his second pick six of his career on Sunday (thanks, pro-football reference.com for confirming and being generally awesome). Now in his 10th year of being the starter in Green Bay, Rodgers has always been known for throwing very few interceptions. Let's just put this stat into perspective, shall we? In today's game of lots of passing, Jameis Winston has three to his name. Derek Carr has 4 and Blake Bortles already has 11. All of these guys started playing in 2014 or later, which was 5 years after Rodgers threw his first pick-six. Brees, Palmer, Rivers and Manning all lead the active players with more than 20 each in their career. Of course, the king of the pick six is Rodger's predecessor, who threw 31 in his career.

 

24 Players Scored More than 20 Points

 

This was a fantastic weekend for football, and it really felt like big fantasy points were back too. 24 players scored at least 20 points in standard scoring. Granted, there were some outliers like Marcedes Lewis and a bunch of QB's that are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. I'm talking about guys like Russell Wilson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Howard and T.Y. Hilton, who were all drafted high and finally delivered with big points this season. This week's 58:30 TD:INT ratio also was a great way to get unstuck from the muck that was Weeks 1 & 2. Even Odell Beckham Jr. got going, and got weird. He could have even joined this group if he had 1 more yard.

 

3 Receiving Touchdowns

 

Marcedes Lewis, you know, the guy who's been on the Jaguars since George W. Bush was in Office, caught 3 touchdowns Sunday morning (afternoon?) in London. This equals his total since the 2014 season started and is now about 10% of his career total. These aren't metric touchdowns either, they count for 6 points no matter how many meters or yards the touchdown actually is. On the other side, the Ravens #1 expert consensus ranked D/ST did what can only be described as crapping the bed. They managed zero sacks, picks and fumbles on their way to a -4 point fantasy finish. Blake Bortles sends his regards.

 

2.2 Points Per Touch

 

Here at drinkfive.com, we think that considering a player's potential starts with just how many points they can score when they touch the ball. A good player approaches 1.0. A great player averages just over than for their career. This season, still young, has Chris Thompson up to 2.2 points per touch. He has 350 yards from scrimmage on 27 total touches with 4 touchdowns. He's also racking up the long plays this year, with a long run of 61 yards and a long reception of 74 yards. I don't expect Thompson's touches to go up astronomically, but he could see an increase to maybe 12 per game, from the 9 he's currently getting. At his pace, that's like him scoring another touchdown. Last week was the time to pick him up in most leagues, but still look to see if he's in yours!

 

Bonus stat:

61 Yards

 

I like to pick on kickers from time to time in this column. I also like to give them props, when appropriate (but not as much as I like picking on them). But I digress, congrats to rookie kicker Jake Elliott who kicked two field goals in the last minute of the game, one to tie and one to take the lead. They were from 46 to tie and an incredible 61 yards for the win. Bravo young man, you no longer need to buy drinks in Philly, as long as you don't miss next week.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an explosive first 2 weeks of the NFL season, but for the rookies it’s been a pretty disappointing start. Saquon Barkley has lived up to his considerable hype despite the Giants’ offensive line woes, but beyond him only Phillip Lindsay, Will Dissly, and Sam Darnold have shown consistent production so far. Two of those players are guys you probably hadn’t heard of before week 1, and the another one is a QB2 at best for fantasy purposes, which isn’t that useful for most leagues. There have been flashes from some of the more heralded rookies. Dante Pettis, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley have all made big plays, but need more consistent opportunities. Week 3 is yet another week where there aren’t many rookies I trust to start. There will come a point where more of them are productive, but in the meantime I’ll keep trying to identify some good guys to stash or take a shot on in DFS. Let’s dig into what to expect for week 3…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Barkley is still an every week starter despite poor o-line play and substandard overall offensive play. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in the run game, but his usage in the passing game is going to make him a PPR star quickly. The Texans haven’t proven to be a matchup to avoid yet, and their pass rush with JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney should actually be a boost to Barkley’s upside this week catching dump off passes.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Lindsay has started his career with 2 consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards. He’ll be hard pressed to make it 3 against a formidable Ravens’ defense that has allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points in the league so far, but the success he’s had so far at least has him in the conversation for a flex spot this week in spite of the matchup.

 

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): His goal line usage gives him value, but his lack of consistent playing time has turned him into a TD-dependent flex option until things change. Freeman was out-snapped by both Devontae Booker and Lindsay last week. Some of that was due to a negative game script, but it’s still a little troubling.

 

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Jarvis Landry is questionable and on a short week this week and Josh Gordon has been shipped off to New England. That leaves Callaway as potentially the number 1 receiver this week in Cleveland. He already saw his playing time jump from 17% of the snaps to 81% with Gordon out in week 2. There’s no reason to think that will drop this week. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, and should be an intriguing flex option this week in deeper leagues. He’s looking at a huge role and reasonable matchup. Bump him up a little if Landry isn’t able to play.

 

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Tight end has been a bit of a wasteland after a few elite options so far this season. Injuries to Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen haven’t helped. One surprising bright spot has been Dissly. He had a huge performance in week 1, and seemed to be following it with a pedestrian performance in week 2 until a late TD catch. Garbage time points still count, and he’ll remain the Seahawks’ leading TE. The Cowboys have allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to tight ends in the league in the first 2 weeks, so the matchup is a decent one. There are worse streamers out there than Dissly for this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Cle.): The Browns’ defense has been pretty solid against 2 pretty solid offenses. Darnold has been better than expected through his first 2 starts, but he’ll be a low-end QB2 this week at best.

 

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 3: @Min.): Allen was less than stellar in his first pro start, and this week he gets to face another quality defense on the road with his best offensive weapon either out or limited (Shady McCoy). The Vikings have limited two quality QBs, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, to an average of 12.5 fantasy points apiece. Allen is much worse than that duo, with much worse talent around him.

 

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: vs. NE): The Lions running game woes have continued into this season despite investing offseason resources in Kerryon and LeGarrette Blount. Kerryon has been seeing a respectable number of touches, but the production just hasn’t been there. He needs to start scoring touchdowns to really take off, but that will be tough on this team. Detroit has run 18 plays in the red zone this season. 17 of them were passes. The Lions’ defensive woes are real, and the Patriots will be playing angry after their letdown last weekend. I expect Detroit to be playing from behind again and abandoning the run early. It’s not a great spot to use Johnson.

 

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Carlos Hyde had an inefficient performance in week 2 despite finding the end zone. He tallied just 43 yards on 16 carries. With a few more performances like that, Chubb’s role is sure to grow, but I don’t see a big shift in the backfield split this week. It also doesn’t help that the Jets are an uninviting matchup for backs. I’d avoid starting Chubb this week.

 

RBs Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 3: @Phi.): The backfield roles are very up in the air after the return of Marlon Mack. Everyone played about the same amount in week 2, and I’d expect Mack to start getting more work going forward. Hines will still get some opportunities in the passing game, and Wilkins will probably still handle some carries this week, but you can’t count on enough usage for either one of them to start them with any confidence. We’ll need to see how things trend with all 3 backs healthy for another week or 2.

 

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ito may be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but this is a bad week to roll the dice on him in DFS tournaments. The Saints have allowed just 4 running back receptions and the 3^rd-fewest RB points total through 2 weeks. Smith will get some usage behind Tevin Coleman as long as Freeman is out, but I’m not too optimistic for him in week 3.

 

RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 3: @Car.): Walton is a player to keep an eye on this week with Joe Mixon sidelined for a bit, but I’m not ready to buy into him as a stash just yet. He should dress this week after being a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, but Gio Bernard saw the vast majority of the work in games Mixon missed last year, and I’d expect the same this year until the team shows me different. They did also sign Thomas Rawls this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much of a factor.

 

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Sutton is trending in the right direction in terms of how many snaps he’s playing, but his production has been inconsistent. He’s going to have some weeks where his point totals spike, but as long as Demaryius and Manny Sanders are around he’s going to stay inconsistent. The matchup this week is against the formidable Ravens defense, so I wouldn’t bank on this being one of those spike weeks for Sutton.

 

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Kirk was used quite a bit more in week 2 than he was in week 1 (5 targets after just 2 in week 1), but it’s hard to even consider using him until the Cardinals’ offense starts playing better. I don’t see that happening until Josh Rosen is under center. If the offense continues to sputter, that could happen sooner than expected.

 

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Miller certainly has shown some upside in the first 2 weeks, but to really make good on his promise he’s going to have to pass Taylor Gabriel on the depth chart, and he’s going to need some better play from Mitch Trubisky. As for week 3, the Bears are favored by nearly a touchdown and should lean on Jordan Howard’s running a bit more than they have so far. The passing volume won’t be high enough to take a chance on Miller.

 

Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Gallup is dealing with low snap and target counts, and an offense that leans on the rushing attack and slowing down the pace of the game. Until the passing attack starts to play at a higher level and Gallup starts playing more, he needs to be avoided in fantasy lineups.

 

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): He’s seen just 2 targets in the first 2 weeks, and the Raiders have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points in the league through 2 weeks.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 3: @Det.): The Lions have allowed over 170 rushing yards in each of the first 2 weeks. The usage split between Michel and Rex Burkhead is still a bit of a question mark going forward, but I like Michel’s chances of being heavily involved. The matchup is a great one, and he’ll be a sneaky DFS tournament play this week as long as Burkhead doesn’t get workhorse carries.

 

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Coach Pete Carroll stated that Chris Carson remains the starter after not playing him at all in the 4^th quarter on Monday night, but it looks like the window is opening for Penny to take on a bigger role. Carroll also expressed a desire to run the ball more this week, so there could be more carries to go around for everyone. Penny is also a better receiver than Carson, and Dallas has allowed a 45-yard receiver in each of the first 2 weeks. There’s a chance for Penny to make a nice impact in the passing game as well. I wouldn’t trust him in season-long leagues, but there is some DFS tournament upside here.

 

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ridley got much more involved in week 2, seeing 3 more targets than Mohammed Sanu and scoring his first career TD. His increased usage also coincided with the Falcons finally seeming to exorcise some of their red zone demons. New Orleans has allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to wide receivers in the league through 2 weeks. It’s a great week to consider Ridley in DFS tournaments, or to take a shot on him as a flex in deeper leagues.

 

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 3: @KC): Pettis’s status really depends on whether or not Marquise Goodwin is able to play this week. The matchup is a juicy one. The Chiefs have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points in the league so far, and Pettis will play major snaps if Goodwin sits again. He’ll be a dart throw in DFS if Goodwin plays, but I’d expect 6+ targets if Marquise is out again. Against this defense, that kind of work gives him WR3 upside.

 

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 3: @TB): Washington did score his first TD last week, but caught just 1-of-5 targets for 14 yards in the process. That doesn’t sound like a promising performance, but he played 66-of-82 snaps in what is typically one of the more prolific passing offenses in the league. If that snap count repeats itself this week, there’s a ton of upside in a solid matchup against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 7^th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far. Given his increased role, Washington is a decent low-cost option in DFS tournaments.

 

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Moore is shaping up to be a good buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues and deeper redraft leagues. He’s only played 17 snaps in each of the first two weeks, but head coach Ron Rivera has been saying that they need to use him more moving forward. He managed to post a 51-yard TD catch last week. I wouldn’t take a chance on him this week, but I would consider putting an offer into the Moore owner in your league to see if you can get him at a discount.

 

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The Ravens’ tight end split has been a bit frustrating so far. They’ve pretty much split the targets evenly between Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams and Andrews, but this matchup is a good one for the position. Denver has been notorious for being stingy to wide receivers and vulnerable to tight ends. The Broncos allowed the 4^th-most TE points in 2017, and have coughed up the 6^th-most so far this year including a big game from Will Dissly. Andrews already found the end zone once last week and has 3 catches in each game so far. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the rest of the week to make sure you aren’t starting any players who end up sitting. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.