Week 1

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09
September

Fantasy Football Week 1 Preview: Under the Radar

Football is back, and with it comes the return of the weekly articles that drinkfive has always tried to provide on a timely basis. With 'Under the Radar' I hope to help raise some awareness of players that could make a leap in performance but are likely still available for cheap or even free on your league's waiver wire. Thanks to FantasyPros player cards, you can take a quick look at all of these guys just by clicking on the icon next to their names. Please leave any questions/comments below and remember to have fun in week 1 and wreak havoc in your leagues this year!

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/8/15: Week 1 Preview)

tom brady ben roethlisberger thursday 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT

Steelers @ Patriots

Tom Brady’s triumphant return after defeating the evil Roger Goodell? Maybe. The Patriots started slowly last season and will likely do the same thing this year with a depleted secondary, banged up wide receivers and rag tag group of running backs. Under the Radar: DeAngelo Williams, Markus Wheaton, Dion Lewis, Brandon Bolden, Danny Amendola

SUNDAY MORNING

Colts @ Bills

The Colts have built up their offense with proven veterans like Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in an effort to get to the big game now, rather than waiting to draft and develop talent around Andrew Luck. Might work for them! The Bills have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, and some great offensive weapons in guys like Watkins, McCoy and Harvin but their QB situation with Tyrod Taylor under center is extremely volatile. The Colts defense is a good play here in week 1, as is any defense going up against the new guy. Under the Radar: Phillip Dorsett, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams, Charles Clay

Browns @ Jets

Not the most exciting match-up in NFL history; both teams lost the battle for relevancy pretty early on in 2014. Both teams have very solid defenses and equally unstable situations at quarterback with re-tooled receivers. Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick are less than interesting, but that doesn’t mean that the game is without standouts at their positions. Under the Radar: Eric Decker, Brian Hartline, Duke Johnson, Chris Ivory

Panthers @ Jaguars

Standout rookie Kelvin Benjamin is gone for the season, leaving Newton and the Panthers with Jonathan Stewart, Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen. That’s not enough on paper to get where they were last year, so without a superman season from Newton, they’re in trouble. The Jaguars are looking better each year, growing a good defense and turning some unfortunate seasons into good draft picks like Allen Robinson. Under the Radar: Cameron Artis-Payne, Corey Brown, T.J. Yeldon, Allen Hurns

Packers @ Bears

Sorry Bears, rebuilding really hurts the fantasy value of your players. The Packers win this one, hands down, even without Jordy Nelson. Does Alshon Jeffery get a chance to play? That news may not come out until game day, unfortunately. Under the Radar: James Jones, Richard Rodgers, Jeremy Langford, Eddie Royal

cecil shorts week 1 texans 2015

Chiefs @Texans

The Chiefs upgraded at wide receiver by picking up Jeremy Maclin and ditching Dwayne Bowe. Their other skill positions are filled to the brim with talent with names like Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce. The Texans have a killer defense that only gets better with Jadeveon Clowney included and one of the best upcoming WRs in DeAndre Hopkins. What they don’t have right now is a quarterback or a running back. Under the Radar: Knile Davis, Cecil Shorts, Jaelen Strong, Garrett Graham

Dolphins @ Redskins

The Dolphins are making strides this season both defensively and offensively. They’ve picked up wide receiver depth and talent as well as strengthening the defense with Suh and bringing on Jordan Cameron. Tannehill has improved every year and looks to keep on going with his new tools. The Redskins are struggling mightily at the quarterback position and it looks as though they have finally decided to ditch RG3 in favor of Kirk Cousins. For better or for worse, it’s a new era in Washington. Under the Radar: Jonas Gray, Kenny Stills, Jordan Reed, Matt Jones

Seahawks @ Rams

The Seahawks got better? Nuts.. Adding Jimmy Graham and Fred Jackson has increased the offensive power of this defensive juggernaut. Teams should be very afraid this year. Kam Chancellor may hold out for some or all of the season, but that’s not enough to push the Seahawks from being Super Bowl favorites. The Rams have some talent to develop in Todd Gurley but he looks like he’ll come along slowly. Their new QB, Nick Foles, is a big question mark in the Rams offense.. will he mesh with #1 WR Brian Quick? Under the Radar: Tyler Lockett, Kenny Britt, Tre Mason

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Lions @ Chargers

Megatron and Tate should find all the success in the world this year in Detroit’s offense, especially with newcomer Abdullah adding a threat to the backfield. The Chargers’ offense is a little lacking in 2015 with aging TE Gates suspended for 4 games and Keenan Allen regressing from his rookie season. New acquisition Stevie Johnson should provide a spark as well as Danny Woodhead, who is healthy once again. Under the Radar: Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Eric Ebron

Saints @ Cardinals

Drew Brees and the Saints had a losing season last year, and it’s not likely that will continue to happen. Even though he lost some important offensive tools in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, Brees has always had the ability to spread the ball around. The Cardinals will need Carson Palmer to stay healthy this season in order to make it to the playoffs, but if he can last the duration of 2015 that could mean big things for this offense. A weak point is at RB, and it’s unclear who will come out on top this year (Ellington, Johnson or Johnson). Under the Radar: Brandon Coleman, C.J. Spiller, John Brown, Jaron Brown

Ravens @ Broncos

Marc Trestman’s offense gets a good test in week 1 against the Denver Broncos – all signs point to Forsett continuing to be productive here and Steve Smith will likely shine early in the season as he has done throughout his career. The major issue here is the lack of depth at wide receiver. Look for Kamar Aiken to surprise if he can play up to the task at hand. Not much has changed for the Broncos except slightly more of a focus on the running game, with the aging Peyton Manning under center. Don’t get me wrong, Manning will still play lights out football but the Broncos will try to be more conservative to keep him healthy all season. Under the Radar: Kamar Aiken, Ronnie Hillman, Owen Daniels

Bengals @ Raiders

The Bengals will look to capitalize on what successes they have already had and keep pushing the running game with Jeremy Hill. The WR2 spot still has yet to be consistently filled and a lot of those targets will fall to TE Tyler Eifert. The Raiders have a new/young offense including guys Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray led by Derek Carr, who could take another step forward this season. Watch out for this team in 2015. Under the Radar: Michael Crabtree, Mychal Rivera, Tyler Eifert

Titans @ Buccaneers

Marcus Mariota is going to lead the Titans to a more successful season than in 2014. The big question is how much more successful? Without a lot of developed weapons, probably not that much more. Kendall Wright could shine here in PPR leagues with the volume of targets that he is slated to receive, but the rest of the team is a toss-up. The Bucs also have a rookie QB in Jameis Winston but they have more established tools on offense (Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, etc). The Bucs should enjoy more early success because of this. Under the Radar: Delanie Walker, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Terrance West

SUNDAY NIGHT

Giants @ Cowboys

The Cowboys jump into the 2015 season with a great passing attack, but a very jumbled backfield. Neither Joseph Randle nor Darren McFadden seem to be the guy that will lead them out of chaos, so it’s more likely that this situation will just be a rotating carousel of running backs depending on who is performing better from week-to-week. The Giants look to improve on their record from last year and should be able to do just that, though they have a similarly muddy looking backfield with Jennings and Williams. Best to focus on the pass with these two teams until their running situations become more fleshed out. Under the Radar: Reuben Randle, Shane Vereen, Terrance Williams, Christine Michael

MONDAY NIGHT

Eagles @ Falcons

We could talk about the Eagles forever – the combination of explosive talent and fast-paced play running that Chip Kelly has bottled right now in Philadelphia could catapult the Eagles to the top of the charts pretty quickly. Bradford’s health and Murray’s production will ultimately determine whether or not this team makes it in the post-season. The Falcons have a comfortable passing attack and one of the best NFL receivers in Julio Jones, but they have major issues at the running back position. It looks like Tevin Coleman will start off the season with the job, but can he really make it his? Under the Radar: Jacob Tamme, Ryan Mathews, Leonard Hankerson

Vikings @ 49ers

The Vikings have impressed in the preseason (which doesn’t mean a whole lot) with good performances from Teddy Bridgewater and Co. The return of Adrian Peterson definitely adds an air of confidence for the team, and their defense has been looking like a cohesive unit lately. Looks like the battle of the NFC North might end up between Green Bay and Minnesota this year. San Francisco has lost a ton of players on offense and defense and I’m not sure that they can successfully recover this year. One bright spot is the addition of Torrey Smith, and the sure-handed Anquan Boldin is still kickin’. Nope, things do not bode well for the 49ers in 2015. Under the Radar: Reggie Bush, Charles Johnson, Vernon Davis

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10
September

Week 1 FanDuel (DFS) Lineup Advice

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Now that the yearly fantasy drafts are wrapped up it’s time for the degenerate gamblers in us all to turn our attention to our daily fantasy picks for week 1. I believe the early weeks in the season provide a perfect opportunity to pad your account with some easy money. Whether it’s Fanduel, or any other daily fantasy site, they are limited in the way they increase salaries for certain players without current year statistics backing it up. Good for you and me because we can grab some obvious value players in the early weeks before their salaries start to level off with their production. In my week 1 lineup I have a handful of such players.

Sam Bradford, PHI - $7,500 at ATL

I almost always try to find the best value pick at quarterback on Fanduel. Passing touchdowns are only worth 4 points as opposed to 6 points for rushing and receiving so I like to save cap space at quarterback when I can. There is plenty to like about Sam Bradford in week 1. He has had a productive preseason and his talents fit very well in Chip Kelly’s offense. The Atlanta defense gave up the most passing yards last season. Philadelphia was second worst in passing defense last season so this game is shaping up to be a shootout. Lastly Sam Bradford’s injury concerns have very little merit in daily fantasy, unless he goes down early on Sunday (knock on wood).

Jeremy Hill, CIN - $8,600 at OAK

Jeremy Hill made his debut last season in week 9 and Giovani Bernard never stood a chance. Hill is the Bengals feature running back and received all the goal line work in the dress rehearsal game. This is a plus for week 1 as Oakland gave up 17 rushing touchdowns last season. He is toward the top of the cap for RB’s this week but this is prime example of why saving money on QB pays off.

Christopher Ivory, NYJ - $6,400 vs. CLE

Chris Ivory has risen to the top of the depth chart for the Jets to start the season. He is a beast with the rock and will likely see plenty of opportunity as Ryan Fitzpatrick was forced into the starting role. The Jets have a fantastic matchup this week against the Browns who ranked dead last in run defense last season. His hit against the cap is minimal for the amount of work we can expect to see and the favorable matchup.

Julio Jones, ATL - $9,000 vs. PHI

Very rarely will I recommend spending top dollar on any player. This week I am making that rare exception when it comes to Julio Jones. The Falcons/Eagles game has the highest projected point’s total (55) of any other game in Week 1. Atlanta prefers to get work done through the air and the matchup is perfect against the Eagles pass defense that finished 2^nd to last in 2014. Spend the cap space and gain yourself a clear cut elite WR1.

Jarvis Landry, MIA - $6,900 at WAS

Landry happens to be one of my favorite WR2’s heading into the season. He is entering into his second season as the clear #1 in Miami. Tannehill looks Landry’s way early and often making him a PPR favorite week in and week out. Week 1 in particular is a favorable matchup as the Redskins gave up the most passing touchdowns (35) last season.

Davante Adams, GB - $5,500 at CHI

We haven’t been able to see much Adams this preseason. The packers were devastated by the loss of Nelson and Cobb had an injury scare too so Green Bay saw fit to protect their receivers. That being said I like his value this week. He is the #2 wide receiver on a high powered passing offense with one of the best quarterbacks throwing to him. His value is increased this week more than some based on the favorable matchup against the Bears. The Bears defense was bad last season and with coaching changes and scheme changes I don’t see the improvement necessary to prevent the Packers from embarrassing them once again.

Martellus Bennett, CHI - $6,200 vs. GB

Bennett is the small shining light at the end of the long dark tunnel that is the Chicago Bears fantasy value this season. Bennett’s athleticism makes him a good option at TE but week 1 in particular has advantages. The Bears have injury concerns at wide receiver and Bennett’s role was increased in game 3 of the preseason. He is a favorable target in the end zone for Jay Cutler. Finally, he historically plays his best ball in September. Last season his September stat line was 29 rec. 295 yards and 4 TD’s; in 2013 he was 20/225/3. If there was any time to bet on Bennett it is week 1.

Cody Parkey, PHI - $5,000 at ATL

I follow two basic rules when finding value for a kicker in daily fantasy leagues. I look at the odds boards to see what games have high point’s projections and I particularly look for favorable games that are in domes. Cody Parkey is a fantastic find for week 1 that exceeds expectations for both of my criteria. No matter what other advice you may listen to or ignore this is the piece of advice you will want to take.

Miami Dolphins DST - $4,700 at WAS

People might forget that for about half the season last year Miami was a pretty stout defense. Injuries and overall lack of depth failed them at the end of the season, but they have bolstered that defense this off season. I can tell you in two words why I like this match up. Kirk. Cousins. If that isn’t enough then I will also site the fact that Washington has had a world of distractions and “miscommunication” involving RGIII leading up the start of this season. The Redskins are a mess. Miami defense is strong.

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16
September

Week 1 Overview: I Just Love Me Some Football

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Oh what a day, upsets, interceptions and last minute comebacks is what WK 1 had in store for us people. From the Charger's making a 30 point run to beat Seattle to Dallas putting on their big white hats and saving the day. I just love me some football.

TNF: 9/10/2015: New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:

OK, this is getting a little crazy and it's just not interesting anymore. So now that the Steelers got pimp slapped on national TV, game #1 of 265 of the 2015-2016 NFL Season, what they do? They cry foul. I mean I love Mike Tomlin but man up and take your loss, you guys played, but not well enough to win this one. The Patriots were pretty much getting to Big Ben at will and well Brady, hell, it's Brady, what you expect? I'm no Brady fan, but I didn't care for Reggie Miller either but he would shut a team down. Did you guys really think they were going to lose. Let's go over the facts. 1. They unveiled their 4th Championship Banner, two former players carried out the Pats 4 Super Bowl Trophies. 2. Brady's suspension was overturned. Face it, no matter who stepped out on the field with them on this Sunday, they were not winning. Brady threw 4 TDs and 3 of them was to the Gronk. Tomlin accused the Patriots of giving him crappy earphones and that they may have been listening to his plays. I read today that the matter has been closed, thank goodness. Do you think the rain and maybe some thunder had something to do with it Mike? I'm just saying, thunder, lightning & rain tend to interfere with electronics sometimes. T. Brady threw for 288yds & 4 TDs, not missing a beat. D. Lewis had 15 carries for 69yds and J. Edelman, who was getting under the Steelers skin, had 11 receptions for 97yds, plenty of trash talking on the field. B. Roethlisberger threw for 351yds, 1 TD & 1 int. D. Williams had 21 carries for 127yds, nice job man, though in vain. A. Brown had 9 receptions for 133yds & 1 TD. You too Brown, nice job. note: all is right with the universe, the banned interns involved in "deflategate" have all been cleared to return to Gillette stadium. There is some justice in the world I guess. Oh, I forgot, the score was 28-21

MNF: 9/14/2015: Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco: 49'ers:

Yeah, the stage was set for this game. Adrian Peterson back for the Vikings and Kap supposedly did some great improvements during the off-season. Well, the hype for AP didn't go over well, shoot, for Minnesota period. AP was held to 10 carries for 31yds, the kicker missed his 1st two FG attempts & Teddy ate grass for much of the game. That's it, that's all. The one thing I remember about this game is the hit that Kap took on one play when he decided to go for the gold. Man, he was hit so hard, my filling fell out my tooth. He played it off pretty good but you can see his world was rocked. Man!! Reggie Bush left the game with about 6.5 minutes left in the 1st Qtr, left calf injury or could he see where this was heading? The man who set the tone for the win for the 49'ers was RB Carlos Hyde. When the dust cleared he had 26 carries for 168yds and 2 TDs, talk about putting in a full day's work. He said he wanted to out play Peterson and I do believe he did just that by maybe uhhhh, 135yds, lol. I do know he shouldn't focus too much on AP, there are other RBs out there that you have to come across, enjoy, but don't celebrate too hard. All in all, they shut them down for 3 whole Qtrs then allowed only 1 FG in the 4th, don't take much to lose when you playing like that. My Bears are looking better everyday!! C. Kapernick threw for 165yds, C. Hyde had 26 carries for 168yds & 2 TDs and V. Davis had 3 receptions for 47yds. T. Bridgewater threw for 231yds & 1 int, A. Peterson had 10 carries for 31yds & M. Wallace had 6 receptions for 63yds.

MNF: 9/14/2015: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons:

The Falcons started the season off with a win over the Eagles, 26-24 and on prime time. I did check out some of this game but I couldn't get into it. Julio Jones got a fat new contract and had 2 TDs to show his appreciation. Going into the half the Falcons were up 17-0. I think they left their mojo in the locker room starting in the 3rd, they were shut down 14-0, they didn't get nothing. They were losing the game 24-23 with about 7 mins left in the 4th Qtr, then Matt Bryant earned his check with 47yd FG to win it, 26-24. The Eagles wings were clipped. DeMarco Murray was pretty much a non-factor this game. He led the NFL last year with Dallas with 1,845yds rushing. He was held to 9yds on 8 carries. What a difference a season makes. The Eagles play the Cowboys next week, Murray better put on his big boy pants and running shoes.That's a wrap people. M. Ryan threw for 298yds, 2 TDs & 2 ints. T. Coleman had 20 carries for 80yds. J. Jones started early earning his new $71.5 million contract with 9 receptions for 141yds & 2 TDs. S. Bradford, the new kid in town, threw for 336yds, 1 TD & 2 ints. D. Sproles had 5 carries for 50yds. J. Matthews contributed 10 receptions for 102yds.

NFC NORTH:

Chicago Bears: 0-1
My Bears gave it a shot but could not pull it out against the cheese heads. The Packers had to muster up all of their strength to win this one, 31-23. What really won the game? Clay Matthews, since when he intercepts and run back more than 15 yards? True, Jay did let us down with the predictable 4th Qtr interception but then he wouldn't be jay would he? Forte however, was almost flawless. Forte joined the Bears in 2008 as a 2nd round draft pick and has accumulated 11,431yds from scrimmage since then. Run Matt Run. They keep the running game going we might be in the mix this year. Bennett showed up and made his presence know. Read the full update below. And YES, I am leaving the BEARS at the top spot, if only for one week, lol.

Green bay Packers: 1-0

You stink GBP, that sounds like a GPS system, not a football team, lol. Yes, they beat us again but this time, I was able to wear my gear to work with head held high and my butt not dragging on the floor. I watched the whole game and overall, I believe the Bears played a good game, this one finally, did not disappoint, well let's say it didn't hurt to bad. I am sure most folks had us down for something like 42-6 or 35-7, suckerssss, we fooled you this time. This was one where we didn't give up like Detroit or like Seattle did, pretty much having the lead through their whole games and turn and lose in regular & O.T. Yes, I am throwing salt on other teams, but, I don't care, what's life without fun and this is fun. The man of the game for the Packers was James Jones. He was with the Packers for his first 7 seasons, including a SB and then left to sign a free-agent deal with Oakland. He was cut by the Raiders in the spring and He signed with the NYG later in the summer. He was cut by the Giants as well. Then just like that, 31 days before the start of the season, Jordy Nelson was injured and out for the season. The Packers were waiting for him with open arms, come on home to daddy. He caught the first 2 TD passes of the season from Rodgers and well, you know the rest. There are no setbacks for Randall Cobb's shoulder so he is good to go. A. Rodgers threw 18-23, 189yds & 3 TDs. E. Lacey had 19 carries for 86yds & 1TD, man, that man has some monster thighs, crazy huge. James Jones had 2 TDs, finishing the icing on the cake. J. Cutler threw for 225 yds, 1 TD & you know it, 1 int. M. Forte had 24 carries for 141yds & 1 TD. A. Jeffery had 5 receptions for 78yds and how did Jay throw over his head? SMH. note: A. Rodgers has more than 4x as many career TDs (229) as INTs (57). No other QB in NFL history even has 3x as many TDs as INTs.

Minnesota Vikings: 0-1

Another one bites the dust and apparently Teddy did too, 5 times to be exact. Peterson, shut down to only 31yds. See MNF update for this one.

Detroit Lions: 0-1

I am sure, NO, positive that the Lions are still kicking themselves in the butt about this one. But this should be of no surprise to the Lions or anyone in Detroit for that matter, they do this on a regular. I know what you saying Lions fans, you are probably saying, you can't say nothing Rainey, ya'll lost today. Uhhhh, yeah we did, but we lost with dignity, get it straight. You had a 21-10 lead at the end of the half and Rivers whipped it on ya'll in the 2nd half and BAM, you lost, LOL. I know a certain person at work is going to let me have it but I couldn't resist :o). Read about the Rivers show in the Chargers update.

NFC SOUTH:

New Orleans Saints: 0-1

Man, didn't they end the season like this. It's hard to believe the Saints just suck right now andddd they lost Jimmy Graham to boot. They lost to the Cardinals, 31-19. Momma said they'll be days like this. Check out the full update in the Arizona Cardinals update.

Carolina Panthers: 1-0

Panthers win easily over the Jaguars, 20-9. From what I'm reading, this was not a blow 20-9, it was a "the panthers did just enough offensively to beat the jaguars." Carolina held Jacksonville to 75yds in the 2nd half, intercepted two passes and got 4 four of the 5 sacks in the game. Cam was mediocre in this showing with 18 of 31 passing for 175 yds, 1 TD & 1 interception, oh yeah, he ran for 35yds. Nuff said about this game. C. Newton, already noted, J. Stewart 18 carries for 56yds and T Ginn Jr., 2 receptions for 54yds. B. Bortles, whom they said was off all day, threw for 183yds, 1 TD & 2 int, T. Yeldon had 12 carries for 51yds & A. Hurns had 5 receptions for 60yds & 1 fumble. note: The teams kicked off the season 20 years after entering the league together as expansion franchises.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-1

Good grief Charlie Brown, they got stomped by the Titans, 42-14. QB Jameis Winston, No. 1 overall draft pick was taught the basic fundamentals of a QB by the also rookie, Marcus Mariota. Man, I hope he had his pen & pad out, lol. Winston did have a first in this game though. He became the 1st QB since Brett Favre in 1991 to have his first NFL pass intercepted & returned for a TD. But he was the Heisman winner in 2013, that's something to he can dwell on for today. Read full details in Titans update.

Atlanta Falcons: 1-0

You have already read this update about their win over the Eagles in the MNF update

NFC EAST:

Philadelphia Eagles: 0-1

You got it, MNF update.

Dallas Cowboys: 1-0
At first, I said, the Cowboys are going to blow this one, I was calling them the DULLas Cowboys for a bit. They must have heard me and turned things around. Romo put on his 10 gallon hat like J.R. Ewing and when the dust cleared, they beat the Giants by a hair, 27-26. Romo did drop the last snap, he had to scramble around to get it back in his hands and when he looked up, who was there? His trusty TE Jason Witten, with 7 seconds left, he threw an 11yd TD pass and that was all she wrote. They connected a lot last season and it looks like they still have that vibe going. The Cowboys first, were gunning for O. Beckham, seems they still haven't gotten over the beautiful one handed catch he put on them last season. Reports say that Cowboys Wilcox hit Beckham so hard, he broke his own nose. Really, beat yourself up and save everyone else the trouble, that had to hurt. With every win comes a little pain, the pain for the Cowboys, Dez Bryant. He played kinda weak, he wasn't the same, at least that's what I thought. Then he left the game to get some juices flowing in his body because he was dehydrated. After that, he broke a bone in his foot, he may be out 6 weeks. Let's see if the Cowboys can hold it together. T. Romo threw for 356yds, 3 TDs & 2 ints. J. Randle had 16 carries for 65yds and L. Dunbar tallied 8 receptions for 70yds. E. Manning threw for 193yds. R Jennings had 13 carries for 52yds & 1 TD, lastly S. Vereen had 4 receptions for 46yds.

New York Giants: 0-1

You just read the full details of their loss to the Cowboys, 27-26. But what you didn't read was that there was some questionable clock management & decision making. Rashad Jennings said that he was told NOT to score. Monday, Eli owned up to the mistake, he was trying to work the clock but not realizing how many timeouts Dallas had, he turned out getting worked. Mike Strahan came in to give the boys a pep talk but who in the locker room really cared at that point. To make it even worse, their flight was delayed 3 hours before leaving Dallas. Talk about a bad day all the way around.

Washington Redskins: 0-1

When it rains it pours. First, the QB situation, RGIII seems to be a past thought. The Redskins are still staying away in using anything of his likeness. Cousins, he is not going to hold up for even 1/2 the season, that's just my thinking. Here are a few other things to add to their woes. WR, DeSean Jackson, who swears he is the 2nd coming of Jesus on the field is out for a month with a hamstring injury. They also lost 2 other starters in WK1. The Redskins released kicker K. Forbath, he missed more than 1 FG attempt and apparently it was the his final kick, maybe even in the NFL. The Redskins offered season ticket holders a chance to try kicking. If I didn't have this bum right knee, I might have given it a shot. They have signed former Saints kicker Dustin Hopkins. Don't miss Dustin, don't miss. And it looks like they are near bottom of Fox Sports WK2 Power Rankings. Man, all I gotta say is, nobody on the Redskins should buy any houses or Bentleys just yet. SMH. Check out the full 411 in the Dolphins update.

NFC WEST:

Seattle Seahawks: 0-1

I'm so happy they lost, yeah I said it. They win one Superbowl and swear they are the best that ever touched the turf or football for that matter. This game switched leaders back and forth and finally came down to the wire. What would win it was a FG in OT, 12:06 left, that gave the Rams the 34-31 win. Oh yeah, Graham had 6 catches for 51yds and a 7yd TD in the 4th for his Seattle debut. Read the full details in the Rams update.

San Francisco 49'ers: 1-0

See the details for this easy win over the Vikings, 20-3 in the other MNF update.

Arizona Cardinals: 1-0

So they took down the Saints 31-19. I am sure the Saints felt it was an episode of Angry Birds.. get it? LOL. Arizona took the lead 7-0 in the 1st Qtr and never looked back. From start to finish, Carson Palmer came to win and mighty easily at that. This was his first game back from a torn ACL last season, he didn't miss a beat. With this win, he became the first Cardinals QB since Jim Hart to win 7 straight starts. (Jim Hart played for the then, St. Louis Cardinals from 1966-1983). How it happened you ask? Carson directed a 9 play, 80yd TD drive right after the opening kickoff. That felt so good, he threw a 10yd TD to John Brown. He got hooked on the TDs and threw 2 more in the 4th Qtr. Darren Fells made a 17yd fingertip catch & the clincher, Palmer's 55yd pass to rookie David Johnson with 1:33 to play. Palmer is 14-2 in his last 16 starts. Did you get all that, that's how you win a FB game. The Cardinals were 8-1 when he was injured last year, they was on the move, I do believe he is here to pick up where he left off. C. Palmer threw for 307yds & 3 TDs, A. Ellington had 12 carries for 69yds, 1 TD & 1 fumble. My main crush, L. Fitzgerald had 6 receptions for 87yds. D. Brees threw for 355yds, 1 TD & 1 int. M. Ingram, am I shamed to say had 9 carries for 24yds. 3x9=27, you couldn't even get 3 per carry, that's a shame. M. Ingram had 8 receptions for 98yds.

St. Louis Rams: 1-0

I like em already cuz they handed Seattle a lost, 34-31. Same old story, the Seahawks needed a yard and the ball was going to, guess who? Marshawn Lynch, but instead of him getting that yard, Rams DL Michael Brockers & Aaron Donald stuffed Lynch for a 1yd loss on 4th & down to seal the victory in OT. This was after G. Zuerlein kicked a 37yd FG on the opening drive of OT. The Rams have put together a defense that features 5 first-round picks up front, just for occasions like this. They sacked Wilson 6 times. Don't worry Russell, Ciara will rub your back for you. Another main element was the 75yd TD punt return by Tavon Austin, he said he thought that Ryan would never kick it to him. He did and he took full advantage. N. Foles, who I believe was with the Eagles last season, threw for 297yds & 1 TD, he had no ints. in his St. Louis Debut, B. Cunningham had 16 carries for 45yds and J. Cook had 5 receptions for 85yds. Wilson threw for 251yds, 1 TD & 1 int. He added 8 carries for 31yds. M. Lynch had 18 carries for 73yds, lolll. J. Kearse had 8 reception for 76yds in the losing battle. note: M. Lynch mom said that the Seahawks OC, Darrell Bevell is the "worst play caller ever." She wants him fired. She was dead serious, lol, she put it on Facebook. Really, because they put your boy on his butt!

AFC NORTH:

Cincinnati Bengals: 1-0

I think this was predictable. Bengals 33, Oakland 13. Tyler Eifert who had been out since the season opener last year, was welcomed back by Dalton with 2 TD passes and Jeremy Hill got in on the party running for two scores. It was Del Rio's coaching debut in Oakland, even worse, They lost starting QB Derek Carr to a hand injury in the 2nd Qtr and were held scoreless until midway through the 4th Qtr. That's gotta suck for the Raiders. The Bengals got their first win in Oakland after 10 previous losses. The game was a little chippy with several personal fouls, including the one where corner Adam Jones ripped the helmet off of Oakland receiver Amari Cooper & slammed his head against it. He was fined 35K. He said it was way too much for a football play. He also said that he can't promise that it will not happen again, he's an emotional player, sounds more like a prick to me. I'm glad they loss, just on that one point. Just my personal view Oakland fans, don't start tripping on me now, freedom of speech and all that other good stuff. A. Dalton threw for 269yds & 2 TDs, G. Bernard had 8 carries for 63yds & T. Eifert had 9 receptions for 1014yds & 2 TDs, not bad for your first day back. M. McGloin threw for 142yds, 2 TDs & 1 int, L. Murray had 11 carries for 44yds and A. Cooper had 5 receptions for 47yds.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-1
Read about their whining loss to the Patriots in the TNF update. FYI, you passed it already.

Baltimore Ravens: 0-1

They lost this one by a slim margin, but it's still a loss. Denver took them down, 19-13 and they didn't look too good doing it. Read about it in Denver's update.

Cleveland Browns: 0-1

Read about their spanking from the Jets, 31-10 in that update.

AFC SOUTH:

Indianapolis Colts: 0-1

I'm not surprised, everybody think that Luck is better than Manning, whom he replaced and has yet to fill those big shoes that were left in Indy. Read about their lost to the Bills, 27-14 in Buffalo's update. Maybe Luck should have let "overgrown beard" Luck play this game, lol.

Tennessee Titans:1-0

Sayyyy what, the Titans won their opener easily against Tampa Bay 42-14. Is this a sign of things to come? Mariota was masterful, I bet he said to Winston after the game, "who's yo daddy now.", lol. Looks like to me according to the score & stats, Mariota was indeed his daddy in this game and he got the game ball. A lot of folks was waiting on this game, it had both of the first 2 players selected in the draft. Winston the 2013 Heisman winner & Mariota the 2014 Heisman winner. Mariota said he can't read to much into this first game, there's still a lot of football to play. Mariota threw no interceptions in his first NFL game. This put him on the records which gave him a spot with no other than, Hall of Famer, Frank Tarkenton as the only players to throw for 4 or more TDs in their first NFL game. Tarkenton did it for Minnesota against DA BEARS on Sept., 17, 1961. Mariota became the first to do it in the first half. In case you don't know, Fran was the only reason I everrrr watched the Vikings, I loved his style of play. He was short, but big, in the NFL. The Titans, did not score more than 28pts in ANY game last season and ended up 2-14. This may be the start of something big. M. Mariota threw for 209yds & 4 TDs, B. Sankey had 12 carries for 74yds & 1 TD, K. Wright tied it up pretty with 4 receptions for 101yds & 1 TD. J. Winston threw for 210yds, 2 TDs & 2 ints. D. Martin had 11 carries for 52yds & A. Seferian-Jenkins earned his keep with 5 receptions for 110yds & 2 TDs.

Houston Texans: 0-1

The Texans were hogged tied by the Chiefs, 27-20. They just made one mistake after another. QB Brian Hoyer didn't fare to well with a forced fumble that turned into a TD for the Chiefs. After much booing & the crowd calling for Mallett, Hoyer hit the bench. Ryan Mallett over with about 6 mins. left and led the Texans on a charge to cut the lead to a TD, but it was too little too late. JJ, well he is JJ. 2 sacks and 9 tackles, including six for losses. J. Clowney, last year's overall pick, added his two cents with 4 tackles, one for a loss. This was his first game back since micro-fracture surgery in December. Get all the info in the Chiefs update.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-1

Well we all knew how this would end up, right? The Panthers gave them their first lost of the season, 20-9. I am sure it won't be the last. Check out the Panthers update for details.

AFC EAST:

New England Patriots: 1-0

They came out, showed off their 4 SB trophies. Then they proceeded to beat the Steelers, 28-21. Read about it in the TNF update.

New York Jets: 1-0

The Jets won, without Geno Smith. What, you thought they wouldn't? They beat the Browns and Johnny Football, 31-10. Meantime, Geno still salty about the sucker punch, he said he has to work on his anger issues. You better work on the buzz that the Jets called the Redskins about a possible trade for Kirk Cousins and I don't think they was trying to dump R. Fitzpatrick, I'm just saying. But Kirk ain't no fool, he is the starter for the Redskins now, he ain't moving. Fitzpatrick threw 2 TD passes & Chris Ivory ran for two scores in the process of running over the Jets. The Jets had 5 takeaways against the Brown, including an interception & two forced fumbles of J. Football who came in late in the 1st Qtr for an injured Josh McCown but it was not to be, the ran out of fuel in this one. R. Fitzpatrick threw for 179yds, 2 TDs & 1 int., C. Ivory had 20 carries for 91yds & 2 TDs and B. Marshall, I miss you man, had 6 receptions for 62yds & 1 TD. J. Manziel threw for 182yds, 1 TD & 1 int., J. Manziel had 5 carries for 35yds & 2 fumbles, lastly T. Benjamin had 3 receptions for 89yds & 1 TD.

Miami Dolphins: 1-0

They fin slapped the Redskins, 17-10. They didn't have to do much to bring them down, they are already feeling low. Miami had fell into an early slump in the game. They put together only 1 TD drive and stat wise was being man-handled by the Redskins. The Dolphins have Jarvis Landry to thank for this one. It was his 69yds Punt return for the TD that gave them the lead for the first time and they held on tight. They were tied 10-10 at the time. Even though it was early in the 4th when he made the TD, they could not recover. On the Redskins next drive, Cousins threw a sideline pass that Dolphins CB, Brice McCain intercepted at the Miami 2. Washington got the ball back and drove to the Dolphins 20 before Cousins threw 2 straight incomplete passes. The Redskins out gained the Dolphins 349-256 & held the ball for 37:54 compared to the Dolphins 22:06 and still lost. That's how it goes in the NFL. R. Tannehill had 226yds & 1 TD, L. Miller had 13 carries for 53yds & J. Cameron had 4 receptions for 73yds. K. Cousins threw for 196yds, 1 TD & 2 ints. A. Morris had 25 carries for 121yds & P. Garcon had 6 receptions for 74yds.

Buffalo Bills: 1-0

I'm not going to even lie, I did not see this game, didn't try to see it and glad that Indy lost. Let me see, what can I add to make it a little interesting for this update. The headline I saw said, "Bills bully Colts." Have no ideal what that means, but I'm guessing Indy took their football and ran home crying. Oh yeah, Rex Ryan is coaching the Bills now. Buffalo's dominating defense put the clamps on Luck, which was one of the NFL's best offenses a year ago. The Colts were a done deal with a 24-0 deficit early in the 3rd Qtr, as usual, they dug themselves into a hole they couldn't get out of. Colts WR, T.Y. Hilton left the game with a knee injury, it was first thought he would miss a few weeks. But I did see this week where they said he would play Sunday. Coach Pagano said they threw everything but the kitchen sink at us, lol. T. Taylor threw for 195yds & 1 TD, K. Williams had 6 carries for 55yds & 1 TD and P. Harvin had 5 receptions for 79yds & 1 TD. A. Luck threw for 243yds, 2 TDs & 2 ints, F. Gore had 8 carries for 31yds & T. Hilton had 7 receptions for 88yds.

AFC WEST:

Denver Broncos: 1-0

Not even 1.5 years ago, anytime the Broncos played, you were going to see a good game. Sure they lost one here and there but you know you were in for some good football. What the hell happened, this was the worst 19-13 win I have ever seen. This Kubiak guy, the new coach, who promised that he would work his offensive playbook around Manning's strengths LIED. This is the worse I have seen in a team that you know was on point 2 season's ago. The buzz is that the Manning/Kubiak union is already on the rocks one game into the season. The Broncos won but didn't look good at all. Peyton was sacked 4x and knocked down they said about 8x, can't confirm that # but that's what I heard. His stats were more like Geno Smiths, lol. 175yds passing, he threw a pic-six too. The game looked to belong to the Ravens but Flacco never saw it coming. He saw Smith Jr. running his route but he never saw Talib, until it was too late. Talib snatched the ball so fast, everyone just had to stop and look for a sec to see what happened. They say that Talib has a long standing rivalry dating back to TB days covering Smith in Carolina. After that, game over man. Even on his mediocre game days Peyton breaks records. This was his record 13th season opening win. He broke a tie with Tom Brady, Brett Favre & John Elway for most opening game wins in league history. P. Manning threw for 175yds & 1 int, R. Hillman had 12 carries for 41yds & E. Sanders had 8 receptions for 65yds. A. Talib had the only TD for the Broncos. J. Flacco threw for 117yds & 2 ints., J. Forsett had 14 carries for 43yds & M. Brown had 2 receptions for 25yds. note: I heard that the Houston Texans ran Kubiak out of town, might happen here in Denver too, I'm just saying.

Kansas City Chiefs: 1-0

The Chiefs won their season opener, lassoed and tied up the Texans, 27-20. Alex Smith threw for 3TDs in the first 1/2 and sat on that for the rest of the day. The Chiefs shelled out a total of 5 sacks in this game with Allen Bailey accounting for 2 of em. Even though they won, their wide receivers are still in a scoreless drought. Not one TD was scored by a WR. Instead, TE Travis Kelce was hungry and snagged two of them and RB, Jamaal Charles tied a nice bow around the 3rd one. The last time a Chiefs wide out scored a TD? It was in WK 14 of the 2013 season, yep, almost 2 years. But the 411 in the locker room is about 2013 top pick Eric Fisher and whether he sat out on purpose to avoid facing J.J. Watt. The coach said that it was HIS call and not the player. But ex-chief player Shaun Smith is a little salty, he is the one that tweeted that Fisher was scared. He said he doesn't even know Fisher, never met him but knows that he sat out to avoid JJ. Well, at least Fisher is in the NFL and where are you Shaun? Oh yeah, you at home talking about why somebody didn't play. Get a grip man, it's over, just sit there and wait on a call to come back or not. A. Smith threw for 243yds & 3 TDs. J. Charles had 16 carries for 57yds, T. Kelce brought it home with 6 receptions for 106yds & 2 TDs. B. Hoyer had 236yds, 1 TD & 1 int. A. Blue had 9 carries for 42yds and N. Washington didn't do bad with 6 receptions for 105yds. note: Chiefs Safety, Eric Berry had 2 tackles in his 1st regular season game since revealing he had lymphoma last year. He was declared cancer-free in June & cleared to practice just before camp. GREAT for him.

Oakland Raiders: 0-1

Read about their loss to the Bengals in that update.

San Diego Chargers: 1-0

See, this here game right here, is why the Chargers paid P. Rivers an $84 million contract extension, they ain't cra-cra. Rivers, who I think is one of the most UNDER rated QBs in the NFL, put his team on his back and piled up 30 straight points, including a go-ahead 13yd TD pass to TE Ladarius Green and shocked the Lions into the new season with a 33-28 win. Rivers made up for two interceptions, including a 31yd return for a TD run by Glover Quin, to complete 35 of 42 passes for 404yds & 2 TDs. They go-ahead TD to Green tied Rivers with hall of famer Dan Fouts for the franchise record of 254. They said they didn't even blink at the fact of being down 21-10 at the half. The first half of the game belonged to Stafford & the Lions but the second half that won the game, belonged to the Chargers. They had them beat stat wise as well. This might be their final home opener at Qualcomm Stadium and they did it in style. P. Rivers threw for 404yds, 2 TDs & 2 ints. M. Gordon had 14 carries for 51yds & 1 fumble, K. Allen had 15 receptons for 166yds, dang, he earned his money today. M. Stafford threw for 246yds, 2 TDs & 2 ints, A. Abdullah had 7 carries for 50yds & 1 TD, E. Ebron had 4 receptions for 53yds & 1 TD.

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08
September

2016 Rookie Report: Week 1 Starts & Sits

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long offseason, but hopefully you’re ready for the season to kick into gear. If you aren’t familiar with the column, each week I’ll break down the matchups that the relevant fantasy rookies face and tell you which ones you should play, which you should sit, and which ones you should think twice about. Always fit the recommendations to your team, and read the reasoning before blindly starting a player based on the word ‘Start’ in my recommendation.

Week one is always the toughest one to project the rookies. We don’t always know how their skills will translate, we don’t have a track record of usage to go off of, and we have a hard time trusting players like that. Because of that, the list of players to consider for week one is a little shorter than it will be for the rest of the season…so guess what? You get a bonus section this week! Before we get to the matchups for week one, here’s a look at my top 10 fantasy rookies for 2016 season:

Ezekiel Elliot is set to impress1. RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys: Zeke is the easy number one option here. He’s the clear cut number one back in the most running back-friendly offense in the league. Darren McFadden ran for nearly 1,100 yards and caught 40 passes for another 328 last year, and he doesn’t have the same talent as Elliott and wasn’t the starter to open the year. I expect Dallas to try and repeat their formula from 2014 when they tried to dominate time of possession by pounding the rock with DeMarco Murray. Murray was the best RB in football that year, and that’s Elliott’s ceiling this year. Thanks to volume and that Cowboys o-line, his floor should still be an RB1.

2. WR Sterling Shepard, New York Giants: Shepard was a phenom at Oklahoma. He’s probably the best route-runner in this draft class and uses his savvy and quickness to get separation consistently. He enters an offense that has been desperate for a number 2 receiver to take pressure off Odell Beckham and they finally found one. It’s a long shot that Victor Cruz ever regains his previous form, so there is a huge role there for Shepard to take. Rueben Randle was awful as a Giant, and he was targeted 90 times last year. During the 2015 season at Oklahoma, the QBs throwing the ball had the equivalent of a 135.9 NFL passer rating when targeting Shepard. Eli is going to get attached to this kid quickly, and I expect him to top 100 targets as a rookie and be a solid WR3 in most fantasy leagues.

3. WR Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: Coleman was statistically the most prolific receiver in college in 2015, blowing by defenses in Baylor’s aggressive spread attack to the tune of 1,363 yards and 20 touchdowns. He follows in a line of Baylor WRs that includes Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams…and he’s likely to end up as the best one of the group. He gets dropped behind Shepard for this year because the Browns’ offense remains suspect, and Josh Gordon will return before long and take a large share of his targets. I expect Coleman to have similar target numbers to Shepard (maybe even more of them), but expect that Shep will be more efficient with his chances due to playing in a more efficient offense.

4. RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Henry was a bruiser in college, but there were a lot of concerns about his workload as a junior (395 carries) and his lack of agility, but he has put most of those concerns to bed with a torrid preseason. He has been terrorizing opposing defenses with 216 yards and 3 scores on 6.35 yards per carry in the exhibition season. In my opinion, his impressive camp has earned him a share of the workload this season despite the team acquiring DeMarco Murray, and he can be a touchdown machine if the Titans give him that chance. He should be drafted as an RB 3 or with the upside to become a strong RB2 if his role increases.

5. RB DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders: While Washington’s role to open the season seems larger than Derrick Henry’s, he lacks the same top-end upside. Washington will open the season as the team’s passing down back, which likely has him ticketed for 50-60 catches and a few TDs, but if he can’t steal some of Latavius Murray’s early down work, he won’t be much more than a weekly flex consideration. Washington ran for nearly 1,500 yards last year at Texas Tech, but their Air Raid offense is known for lining up 4+ wide receivers often, which creates some pretty soft fronts for the RB to run through. I’m yet to be convinced that he will run inside as effectively against NFL defenses. As I mentioned, he’s a weekly flex consideration, and should be drafted as such.

6. WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: Thomas isn’t the flashiest wideout who was drafted this year, be he may have landed in the best situation (at least as long as Drew Brees is around). He seemed ticketed to play the ‘Big Slot’ role as a rookie, but reports have him playing on the outside in 3-WR sets. Still, with Coby Fleener’s struggles in camp he should see a nice target share in a very efficient passing offense. He replaces Marques Colston, who even through his decline averaged 60-788-4.7 over the past 3 years. Those numbers would have been good enough for WR37 last year, ahead of Donte Moncrief, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones and Alshon Jeffrey. Thomas should be in that ballpark. He will certainly have some usable weeks this year, and should be drafted as a WR4, or really good number 5.

7. WR Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee Titans: It was widely believed that the Titans were listing Sharpe ahead of Dorial Green-Beckham on the depth chart as a motivational tactic for the gifted 2^nd year WR…but it turns out they were more than willing to stick with Sharpe if DGB didn’t get his act together. Green-Beckham has been shipped off to Philly, and Sharped looks locked in as a starter alongside Rishard Matthews. It’ll be an up and down year for both Titans WRs. The offense will certainly want to focus on the run game with Murray and Henry, and when it’s working there will be some rough weeks due to low volume, but Sharpe caught 196 passes for 2,600 yards over the past 2 years at UMass. He’ll make the opportunities count when he gets them. He should be drafted shortly after Thomas.

8. WR Will Fuller, Houston Texans: I’m not a big believer in Fuller. I think the dropsies that he showed last year in college will re-surface in the NFL, but hey, that happened to Kelvin Benjamin in his rookie year and he still produced as a top fantasy target. Fuller’s speed is legit. He can take the top off the defense, and he has DeAndre Hopkins on the opposite side of the field to draw coverage away. Fuller will be boom-or-bust, and while I like my fantasy players to have a bit more consistency, there will be some strong games that can help your team, especially in DFS and best-ball formats.

9. WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals: Boyd was ultra-productive at Pitt, but a lot of experts question if he has the speed to separate from NFL defenders. His year one outlook is hurt by the fact that the Bengals are likely to be more run-heavy after losing their number 2 and 3 WRs (and missing their TE to start the year). It’s also hurt by the fact that he hasn’t passed Brandon LaFell on the depth chart yet. While he has an immediate role, it’s possible that someone not ranked in this top-10 moves ahead of him if injury strikes or if they move into a starting role (Treadwell, Doctson, Leonte Carroo, Malcolm Mitchell, etc.).

10. QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: The Dak Attack appears to be for real, and he is opening the year as the starting QB of an offense that is set up for success. Dak will be asked to hand off to Zeke, and occasionally throw to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to keep the sticks moving. They won’t put too much on his plate too soon, but he’s passed every test so far this preseason. He completed 78% of his throws and threw for 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and also ran for 2 scores. The rushing upside makes him playable in 2-QB leagues when the matchup is right. I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that with Carson Wentz just yet. Jerry Jones has left open the possibility that Dak remains the starter once Romo returns if he plays well, so this might be a guy who starts all year. I think I’d still be afraid to draft him in a 10-team, 1-QB league even as a backup, but I’d be fine with it in deeper leagues. He has a solid shot to be a top-20 QB

Honorable Mention: K Roberto Aguayo, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I wouldn’t feel right putting a kicker in the top-10 rookies, but he is one of the best college kickers of all-time, was drafted in the 2^nd round, and appears to be past his scuffles from early in camp. The offense there is improving, and Aguayo should have plenty of chances to put up points this season. He’s likely to finish in the top half of the league in fantasy points for kickers.

Alright, on to week one…

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): You have to start Zeke this week. If you drafted him, it was in the first two rounds, and you didn’t do it to sit him. His only competition for carries is from Alfred Morris, and the Giants allowed 19 fantasy points per game to opposing backs last year. The Cowboys are going to get back to their ball control formula from 2014, when they ran the ball on 49.64% of their offensive plays. With the workload expected for Elliott, he’s an RB1 play this week.

Borderline Rookies:

Can Dak succeed in Dallas?QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The Giants allowed the 2^nd most quarterback fantasy points in the league last year and their pass defense ranked just 28^th in Football Outsider’s DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. Dak likely won’t have to throw a lot, but his rushing ability gives him a higher floor, and he has a shot at a strong QB2 day. I wouldn’t consider him in anything but the deepest of 1-QB leagues though. This is more for 2QB formats.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Shepard should get fed the ball if the defense doubles up on Odell Beckham. The Cowboys were 30^th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs last year, and 10^th vs. #2’s, so Beckham has a plus matchup, but there should be enough to go around for Shep. 70-80 yards out of Sterling would be a success in week 1.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 1: @Phi.): The Eagles were shredded by WRs in 2015 to the tune of almost 2,900 yards and 24 TDs (25.9 fantasy points allowed per game), but they upgraded the secondary this offseason. Both of their starting safties got grades of over 80 from Pro Football Focus in 2015(0-100 scale), so they should do a good job of limiting big plays, which are Coleman’s specialty. The Browns will look to get him involved, but 5-60 sounds about right for this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Cle.): The matchup looks good on paper, but don’t be fooled. Wentz isn’t ready yet. He will play in one of the slowest offenses in the league. Head Coach Doug Pederson’s Kansas City offense ran just 57.4 plays per game last year at home, 2^nd fewest in the NFL. That’s still about 20 more snaps than Carson Wentz has played against better than FCS-level competition. I’d expect a run-heavy attack and some growing pains for the rookie QB along the way. If everything goes right for him, he might be a low-end QB2. The upside just isn’t there this week (or probably for the next few weeks).

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): I’m a huge fan of Derrick Henry’s season-long potential to steal a big chunk of DeMarco Murray’s workload and become a TD machine, but week one might not be his best opportunity. The Vikings allowed just 5 RB rushing scores in ’15, and the 8^th-fewest fantasy in the league to opposing running backs. Their defense should be stronger this year as their young core gains experience. He would have to find the end zone to have a usable day.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Pit): Kelley had a strong preseason, prompting one beat writer to project a 60-40 split of early down work with Matt Jones this season. He will likely have some big weeks, especially if Jones spends any time banged up this year, but week one is not an ideal matchup to make an impact. The Steelers are very vulnerable on the back end of the D, but they allowed the 2^nd-fewest running back fantasy points a season ago. Kelley’s a stash for now in deeper leagues.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Thomas will have an opportunity to make an impact in week one if reports of Coby Fleener’s camp struggles are to be believed, but I’d be hard pressed to start him against Oakland’s ascending defense. It sounds like Thomas will line up outside in 3-WR sets, which means Willie Snead will square off with the weak link of the Raiders’ secondary, DJ Hayden. Thomas should still be 3^rd in the pecking order for targets, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on him this week.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Boyd has some upside this week, but like Thomas I’m just not comfortable making the call to put him in this week. AJ Green will likely get the Revis Island treatment, and it may be tough sledding to run against the Jets’ front, but they certainly will try to establish the run and Boyd is still running behind Brandon LaFell on the depth chart. I’m not sure he sees enough volume to be start-able.

WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN (Wk. 1: @Ten.): After failing to beat out Stefon Diggs and Charles Johnson for a starting role, Treadwell won’t be playable in fantasy in the early part of the season. The Vikings are just too run-heavy for their WR3 to be of value in the lineup.

WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): Much like Treadwell, Doctson is yet to carve out a role with the first-team offense. His struggles, however, have been related more to health than on-field performance. He’s going to work his way into the rotation sooner than later, but it likely won’t happen in week one.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Plays:

RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 1: @NO): The Saints allowed a league-high 910 receiving yards to opposing backs last season and 7 receiving TDs (tied for league-high). They also allowed the 3^rd most fantasy points to the position. While Latavius will be the lead back, Washington figures to have a prominent role in the passing game right away. He could make a decent flex-play in PPR leagues this week.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Fuller is a boom-or-bust punt play for DFS tourneys this week. His hands are an issue, but the Texans are likely to take a couple shots downfield against a suspect Bears defense. Fuller will have a chance to make a big play or two, and should cost the minimum on most DFS sites.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Like Fuller, Sharpe is more of a punt play in DFS tournaments. The Vikings were strong against WR1s in 2015, but they struggled vs. WR2s, ranking 25^th in DVOA on passes to the number 2 wide receiver. If we assume Rishard Matthews is the number one, that makes Sharpe the de facto number 2. Delanie Walker will undoubtedly lead the team in targets in this one, but Sharpe will cost just the minimum in DFS and has some upside for a respectable day.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. If there are any rookies not listed above, I wouldn’t recommend playing them this week. Now it’s time to sit back, put your feet up, and enjoy some NFL football that means something for the first time in 7 months. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.