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Welcome to a new season of the Rookie Report. ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!? The NFL kickoff is less than an hour away as I write this, and I’m sure all us football junkies are getting jittery with anticipation (or maybe just drunk). For those of you unfamiliar with the Rookie Report, each week I’ll give a rundown of the rookies you should start for sure, borderline starting options, guys who should stay on the bench, and throw in some deep league sleepers. I’ll give my thoughts on their outlook for the week which you can hopefully use to effectively utilize your rookies. They are the hardest players in fantasy to predict.

Alright, that’s enough jibber-jabber. Let’s get to it. Since this is week 1, I’m going to start off by quickly laying out my top 10 fantasy rookies for this season. They aren’t necessarily the most talented players, just the ones who will have the best fantasy value this year.

1. Bishop Sankey, RB, TEN: It shouldn’t take long for Sankey to overtake Shonn Greene as lead back for the Titans. The Titans have a very good o-line and Sankey should be a low-end RB2 for most of the year. He’s also the Titans’ best pass-catching back.
2. Brandin Cooks, WR, NO: Cooks will be a PPR monster from the get-go. He’s basically a more polished Tavon Austin with a coach who knows how to create mismatches with his schemes. Kenny Stills injury should help Cooks hit the ground running.
3. Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN: For those of you who don’t know, Gio Bernard is not an every down workhorse back, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is no longer a Bengal. The Bengals are planning on running a lot more this year with Hue Jackson in charge of the offense. Hill will see plenty of work, especially at the goal-line. Should be a weekly flex option.
4. Mike Evans, WR, TB: Evans dominated defenses at A&M, and he has the size and skill to do so at the next level too. He’ll be a big red zone target who has a real shot at 10+ TDs. McCown proved last year he can find big receivers in the end zone.
5. Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI: Matthews opens the season in the slot, but he could overtake Riley Cooper for the number 2 role before long. He has elite talent in an explosive offense. Only a matter of time before he explodes.
6. Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF: The Bills traded up to get Watkins to be their WR #1, so he’ll undoubtedly be a big part of the offensive gameplan, but inconsistent quarterback play will limit his upside. Bills are also expected to be the one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Watkins should be hoping Orton takes the QB job from E.J. sooner rather than later.
7. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR: Kelvin had some big red flags in his college career (drops, questions about effort & attitude), but no rookie WR will have more opportunity. Opens as Panthers’ de facto number 1, but should suffer some growing pains. He’s ikely to score at least 7 TDs.
8. Jace Amaro, TE, NYJ: Amaro should easily be the most productive rookie tight end. With David Nelson as the team’s #2 WR, Geno should lean on Amaro a lot. He’s essentially an oversized slot receiver, and he should be a great option in PPR leagues.
9. Derek Carr, QB, OAK: Carr is the only rookie QB with a starting job. I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Cassel and Chad Henne hold off their more talented backups for half the season, and Manziel is far from a sure thing even if he beats out Hoyer in the first few weeks. Carr looks the part and had an impressive preseason. Could be a low-end QB2.
10. Cody Latimer, WR, DEN: Wes Welker’s suspension and concussion issues could open the door for a big rookie season for Latimer. He’s more talented than Andre Caldwell and a better fit for the outside WR spot vacated by Eric Decker than free agent signee Emmanuel Sanders. Could do big things with Peyton Manning throwing him the rock.

Honorable Mention:Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE, Eric Ebron, TE, DET, Allen Robinson, WR, JAX, Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL, Andre Williams, RB, NYG

Alright, with that laid out, let’s move on to week number one…

Rookies to Start:

WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl): Cooks is the one rookie that I would certainly recommend starting this week. It seems like Kenny Stills is unlikely to play, and the game could be a shootout. I think Cooks is ready to go off. In PPR leagues, he should be a solid WR3 or flex play. He might not score a TD, but I’d be shocked by anything less than 5 catches, and he has the wheels to take it to the house at any given time.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 1: @KC): Am I in love with Sankey in week one against a typically stout Chiefs’ front? No. Do I think he’s capable of a productive week? Absolutely. I’d probably lean against playing Sankey this week, but I think he’ll get a bigger share of the work than the preseason usage would suggest. I think Sankey sees 15+ touches in the opener, with 70-80 total yards.

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (WK 1: @Chi.): Watkins has been banged up for much of the preseason, but he’ll be good to go on Sunday. The Bears’ boasted one of the worst defenses in the NFL a year ago, and they haven’t looked that much better in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect a breakout with E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball, but Watkins could have a nice debut. I’d expect somewhere in the range of 4-5 catches for around 60 yards, but wouldn’t be surprised if he does more.

WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers’ strength on defense is their front 7. Evans’s size is going to create problems for the secondary, especially if they double-team Vincent Jackson like most teams did last year. Evans is as good a bet as any Buccaneer to find the end zone in week one, but I wouldn’t expect a huge catch tally. The Bucs will be a run-first team.

WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 1: @TB): Benjamin’s value for week one really hinges on Cam Newton. Newton is listed as a game-time decision right now, but even if he plays I’d imagine the ribs will limit his effectiveness. If Cam doesn’t go, there’s no way you start Kelvin. If he does play, you’re pretty much hoping for a TD. Benjamin likely won’t go much over 50 yards against a pretty solid Tampa defense.

WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk 1: vs. Jax.): Matthews was a standout all August for the Eagles after a shaky preseason debut. There will be a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and this game looks like an easy Philly victory, but Matthews has been so efficient with his targets that it may only take 5 or 6 looks in his direction to have a productive week. He may be worth a shot in some deeper leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Carr may be starting for Oakland, but he shouldn’t be starting on your fantasy team. Rex Ryan loves to blitz, and Carr will be in a hostile environment. Carr played in a college offense that featured a lot of short passes and easy reads. The Jets defense will be anything but easy to read. I’d expect Carr to be rattled by the pressure and have a shaky first outing. Surely you can find 2 quarterbacks (If in a 2-QB league) that you should play ahead of him.

RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Although I’m very bullish on Hill for the season, I think week one is not the best place to utilize him. The Ravens’ defense is always pretty good, and at we still aren’t completely sure how the work will be split between Hill and Gio. Gio got the 1^st team reps in goal line situations in the preseason, but averaged barely over 2.5 yards a carry for the preseason tilts. Hill will certainly see work in week one, but I want to be sure the touchdowns are coming his way before I start trotting him out there in the weekly lineup.

RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 1: @Det.): After the Hall of Fame game, Williams looked like he would share work with Rashad Jennings and be a really nice player this year, but that sentiment faded over the last few games of the preseason. He’ll still get some carries, maybe even a red zone tote or 2, but merely as a change of pace back for now. Jennings will be a 3-down back in the early going. Until that starts to shift, Williams should stay benched.

Deep League Sleepers:

RB Jonathan Grimes, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): I list Grimes here because we haven’t seen Arian Foster play a single down of preseason football due to injury. Foster insists he feels “wonderful,” but I bet the Texans still intend to spell him more than the average bell cow running back and Grimes has been the most impressive of the backups. The Redskins defense was sieve –like last year, so Grimes could have a nice game with just a handful of carries.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Ray Rice is suspended for the first 2 games of the season, and Bernard Pierce has spent the majority of the preseason banged up. Taliaferro is a perfect fit for OC Gary Kubiak’s one-cut zone running scheme, so if he gets a chance to spell Pierce and looks good, they may ride the hot hand. Kubiak was the OC in Denver as they had a different RB break 1,000 yards every year back in the late ‘90’s-early ‘00’s. Remember Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Rueben Droughns? There are a couple of obstacles for the rook though. The Bengals’ defense should be stout up front with Geno Atkins back, and Justin Forsett is listed as the number 2 back headed into the weekend. Don’t be shocked if the rook does find some work however.

WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): ESPN’s Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold reported that the two primary players the Broncos will use to fill Wes Welker’s production are Emmanuel Sanders and Latimer. There was no mention of Andre Caldwell, who is currently listed above Latimer on the depth chart. I think that means we’ll see Latimer lined up outside in 3-WR sets with Sanders in the slot. It’s a huge boon for Latimer’s week one outlook in what should be a shootout with the Colts. There are always plenty of targets to go around with Peyton under center, and I think a line of 5-75-1 is very possible for Latimer in week one. There won’t be any questions after this week about whether or not he’s ahead of Caldwell in the pecking order.

TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Amaro gets a plus matchup in week one in an offense where he should be the second-best receiver on the team. I don’t expect the Jets to be explosive or for Amaro to pile up touchdowns, but he should see plenty of targets all year. In deep PPR leagues (14 or more teams), I think Amaro could be a nice play this week. He should see 6+ targets.

That’s all I’ve got for week one. Hopefully it helps you out. Now you can go ahead, kick back and enjoy the first weekend of NFL games that count since the Super Bowl. I’ll end the column with the same advice I always do: Trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Adrian Peterson and the games other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.

Here are a few names you might want to consider:

Johnathan Dwyer RB Arizona – Lead back Andre Ellington is out for a significant amount of time – 4-6 weeks or more. If you drafted the injury prone Ellington, you would have been smart to draft Dwyer, but if he was on your waiver wire – snag him and start him when the matchup is right. This week, the matchup could be right. Arizona plays at home against San Diego, whose team defense finished near the bottom last season (especially on the road) and they haven’t really done much to improve for 2014. Dwyer might not catch a lot of balls in the backfield, but is a big, plodding runner who was already expected to handle a good amount of goal line duties. Now, with Ellington out of the picture, he will get the chance to rack up some serious yards, especially with Arizona’s pass attack opening up the run game. Stephan Taylor will also see some reps, but I expect Dwyer to hit the 100-yard mark with a few catches and at least one score as a strong RB2 play.  

Darren Sproles RB Philadelphia – Philadelphia didn’t sign the super versatile Sproles to sit on the bench. This week the Eagles take on what could be the worst NFL defense this season and Sproles will certainly get his shots in Chip Kelly’s high flying offense and when he does the Cowboys will have a tough time containing him. It might be a stretch to start Sproles as your number two running back in Week 1 (although he could pay off), but he will make a nice flex option as a lower-end RB2 with a ton of upside. Starting running back LeSean McCoy has already admitted he expects Sproles to get a good amount of action, and in Kelly’s fast-paced offense, there is certainly room for both.   

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Houston – If you are in a league that starts two quarterbacks or more, Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky QB2 pick. Apparently, there is still a quarterback competition going on in Houston with Ryan Mallett standing by if Fitzpatrick falters – talk about incentive. Houston plays at home against a Washington defense who struggled against the pass last season and any quarterback who has an Andre Johnson to throw to can never be discounted. I like Fitzpatrick as a QB2 with big game potential. 250 passing yards and a couple of scores are not out of the question.

Emmanuel Sanders WR Denver – Talk about a year with breakout indications written all over it. Sanders now is hooked up by one of the game’s best quarterbacks in Peyton Manning, Eric Decker has split to New York and Wes Welker a concussion away from retirement and is currently serving a four game suspension due to breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Let’s not forget that Sanders has always had speed and talent. Week 1 has Denver hosting Indianapolis in what should be a shootout. Sanders will certainly benefit. He was dealing with a minor thigh issue, but fantasy owners should not worry as he has already practiced in full in will be a full go on Sunday. Sanders should be started as a WR2 with confidence and WR1 potential in this very favorable match-up. 

Looking for Week 16 Confidence Picks?

FOOTBALL’S BACK!! FOOTBALL’S BACK!! FOOTBALL’S BACK!!

Did you hear that football is back?

Well it is! The defending champion New England Patriots are so close to defending another one of their asterisk covered Lombardi Trophies against the Steelers. With the start of a new year comes a new year of confidence pool picks!

For those who have not been with us the last two seasons, let me give you a quick rundown on what confidence pool is. First off, you pick the winner of every game in the week. After that, you assign a point value (1 through however many games there are that week) based on how confident you are that your pick will turn out to be correct. So you will want to assign a higher point value to those that you are more confident about. If you pick the game wrong, you don’t get those points. Whoever has the most points for the week wins! Some pools also have prizes for total score throughout the season.

So, without further ado, let’s get the 2015 season started!

WEEK 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – ARIZONA over New Orleans – After a few games last year I predicted that the Patriots dynasty had run its course. I’ll go ahead and throw that label on the Saints this year. Didn’t exactly hold up too well last year though I think it has a better chance of sticking this year.

15 – Green Bay over CHICAGO – The NFL has started its Monday Night Football season with two games for the last few years. On that, this game will allow me to start this season off with an unprecedented DOUBLE BOLD PREDICTION! (I’ll give you a minute to catch your breath ... ... ...) Here goes – THE BEARS WILL END THE SEASON ON THE CLOCK WITH THE WORST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE and even with the Jordy Nelson injury, THE PACKERS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL.

14 – DENVER over Baltimore – With the additions the Colts made in the off-season and everything related to the Patriots, everyone seems to be overlooking the Broncos. Peyton and friends will quickly remind the league who they are this week.

13 – NEW ENGLAND over Pittsburgh – Simply put, the Pats are in complete F You mode this season. Brady and the other “straight shooting, play it by the book” Patriots (wink wink) will take every chance they can get to stick it to the league – no better stage to start it than Opening Night.

12 – TAMPA BAY over Tennessee – This pick is obviously more of a bad Tennessee than a good Tampa Bay. The first battle of the top two picks in the draft will go the way of #1 to start. I see Jameis Winston being somewhere between Cam Newton and RGIII, but he’ll at least start off his career on the right foot.

11 – DALLAS over New York Giants – The Cowboys avoided a huge distraction this season by getting Dez Bryant signed long term. They still need to work on their running back situation, but they still look like they can do some damage in the NFC this season.

10 – SAN DIEGO over Detroit – A battle between two teams that could finish anywhere from top to bottom of their division. I’m sure the Chargers will play their hearts out for their home opener in front of all of their now temporary fans.

9 – NEW YORK JETS over Cleveland – The NFL loves to load their opening week schedule up with matchups that will keep us at the edge of our seats to really set the tone for what should be yet another exciting season of professional football ... ... ... this is not one of those games.

8 – Kansas City over HOUSTON – It’s going to be a long few weeks for the Texans before Arian Foster comes back...and even then it won’t be anything to look forward too. JJ Watt can’t play every position.

7 – Miami over WASHINGTON – The ‘Skins finally came to their senses by benching RGIII. They have senses...but they don’t have that much talent...which is pretty important in professional sports.

6 – Indianapolis over BUFFALO – The Colts are going to be scary this season. I can easily see them taking the AFC this year. They start the 2015 campaign with a tough test in Orchard Park, but it is a test that they should be able to pass.

5 – Carolina over JACKSONVILLE – The million dollar question in Charlotte is who will catch a pass from Cam Newton. Lucky for the Panthers they start the season against the lowly Jaguars.

4 – ATLANTA over Philadelphia – The Eagles look like they could challenge the Cowboys for the NFC East this season. The Falcons have struggled the last year or two but I really think they get things rolling again this season and it starts on Monday Night.

3 – ST. LOUIS over Seattle – The Rams beat Seattle at home last year. It is pretty easy to think that it can happen again this year especially with the Seahawks taking a bit of a hit with the current Kam Chancellor holdout situation.

2 – OAKLAND over Cincinnati – It seems like the Raiders have been consistently mentioned as a team on the come up. They need to win games like this to have a shot at a .500 record.

1 – Minnesota over SAN FRANCISCO – The second half of the Week 1 Monday Night doubleheader concludes with Teddy Bridgewater starting the process of showing the country that he is a legit quarterback that teams should not have passed up in the draft last season. (that was a long sentence)