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Welcome back to another season of NFL survivor pool extravaganza! Week one always seems to be one of the toughest to make picks, soo many question marks, and teams no longer show anything in the pre-season to help you get a feel for what is to come. I was already shocked on Thursday night when the Bills Schalacked the Rams at their ring ceremony. Not surprised they won, but the margin was insane, and holding LA to 10 points with 7 sacks, Wow! 

However, there is one thing I am certain of in this first week of the season. Russel Wilson and the Denver Broncos will not lose on Monday night to his former team up in Seattle. It's pretty simple. Russ will be highly motivated and the Seahawks are one of the teams pegged to be drafting at the top of the draft next year. Denver's defense will shut down the Hawks and won't need to put up much on offense.

My second pick would be either the Baltimore Ravens over the Jets or the Titans at home vs the Giants. After some back and forth I went with the Titans simply because it was a home game and I wanted to use them up early on and save the Ravens for later.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Folk, give yourselves a round of applause! We all did it!!

We have all gotten through the pain and torment that is the annual six to seven month period of our lives that does NOT include football!

Yes, we got a small taste of football with a full college schedule this past weekend. But, I mean, come on! There’s nothing like a full Sunday of the NFL.

I don’t know about you, but I’d say that it’s been LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BALTIMORE over Houston – This will be the first of many Sunday’s Texans’ fans will be repeatedly telling themselves, “we’re rebuilding…we’re rebuilding…we’re rebuilding…”

15 – MINNESOTA over Tampa Bay – It seems like all of the NFC North hype has gone to Detroit and Chicago. I think the Vikings sends a bit of a reminder to the league this week.

14 – WASHINGTON over Arizona – Here something that won’t be a surprise to anyone in Glendale, apparently. My first BOLD PREDICTION of the season is that when the season ends, THE CARDINALS WILL BE ON THE CLOCK AFTER WINNING NO MORE THAN

TWO GAMES.

13 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – Cooper Kupp or no Cooper Kupp, what has happened to the Rams over the last couple of years?

12 – NEW ORLEANS over Tennessee – On behalf of the Raider Nation … we miss you, Derek :’(

11 – KANSAS CITY over Detroit – There’s something about this that makes me want to pick the Lions, but even with the Kelce uncertainty, its still the Chiefs.

10 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – If Burrow ends up not playing, feel free to drop this one a few lines, but still pick the Bengals.

9 – Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS – The Jags have gone from a laughing stock to being one of the more exciting teams in the league in just a couple years…gives me hope as a Raiders fan!

8 – Philadelphia over NEW ENGLAND – The dominant Eagles defense from a year ago got better…that’s scary!

7 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – Soak it in Bears fans, this is the season that you have been waiting for when dealing with your northern counterparts.

6 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Dallas – People overlooked the Giants last season – don’t make the same mistake again this season.

5 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – I refuse to get caught up in the Hard Knocks hype and pick the Jets against a far superior opponent.

4 – ATLANTA over Carolina – The NFC South should be fun to watch this year … not good … but fun.

3 – San Francisco over PITTSBURGH – Kenny Pickett still has to show me something before I pick him to beat the 49ers in the potential Game of the Week.

2 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Miami – Potential playoff matchup in week 1 that the Chargers win simply because they are the home team.

1 – Las Vegas over DENVER – The Russell Wilson trade last season proved to be overrated for the Broncos last season…expect the same from the Sean Payton hire this season.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Months of anticipation have finally brought us to the precipice of another NFL season. Your fantasy drafts are done, and now it’s time to start setting weekly lineups and watch the fantasy points roll in. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, my task each week is to help you figure out what to do with the players that are hardest to predict in fantasy – the rookies. If you don’t spend your summer grinding college film or closely monitoring NFL training camp reports, you might struggle to know what to expect from the rookies you’ve drafted on a weekly basis. Luckily, I’m here to help.

Each week I’ll group the fantasy-relevant rookies into 5 categories – The rookies you know you should start, the rookies you know you should sit, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward starting, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward sitting, and some deep league sleepers, stashes, and cheap DFS options. For each player, I'll provide some additional stats or context to help you make the decision that works best for your team. I can’t stress enough that you should read the specifics and not just what header a player is listed under, and then apply it to your own roster and league settings before making your own decision of who to start. I’m not here to tell you what to do. I’m here to give you info to help you decide what to do for yourself.

For week 1, this task is especially difficult. I try to be more conservative with rookies early in the season until we have some NFL stats and usage data to judge them by, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use any rookies this weekend. We can still lean on preseason usage and 2022 defensive stats of their opponents to help determine which rookies are usable this weekend. Defenses change from year to year, so take the defensive rankings with a grain of salt, but it’s unlikely that a team that was awful against the run a year ago will suddenly be good against it this year unless they made major changes.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

That’s enough preamble for this week. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): You’re not sitting your first-round pick in week 1. The Panthers were a middling run defense last year (ranked 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA), but no team was more efficient running the football than the Atlanta Falcons last season, and Bijan is an upgrade over every back who toted the rock for them in ’22. Week one should be his coming out party in a game where the Falcons are 3.5-point favorites. Fire him up with confidence.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): Like Bijan above, you drafted Gibbs too high to sit him in week one. With Jameson Williams sidelined for the first 6 weeks of the season, the Lions’ running backs will likely see even more receiving work than usual early in the season. The Detroit backfield had a 21% target share last season, and no team in the league allowed more running back catches per game in ‘22 than the Chiefs. Gibbs is a great bet for 5+ catches in his debut, and if the Lions can keep this game competitive, he’s got top-10 running back upside this week, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Before I dive in on Young, I want to clarify that I’d lean towards starting the Panthers’ rookie signal caller in Superflex leagues only. In 1-QB leagues, I’d leave him on the bench this week. The matchup is good but not great (Atlanta allowed the 13^th-most QB points in 2022), and Carolina is short-handed at wide receiver this week with DJ Chark likely out, and both Terrace Marshall and Adam Thielen limited in practice this week by injury. If you’re looking for reasons to be confident in Young this week, look no further than the Falcons’ blitz rates and pressure rates from last season. The Falcons had the 4^th-lowest blitz rate in the league and were dead last in QB pressure rate. They changed defensive coordinators this offseason, bringing in Ryan Nielsen from the Saints, but the Saints had the 6^th-lowest blitz rate and 4^th-lowest pressure rate in ’22. If Bryce has time in the pocket to pick apart the Falcons’ defense, I like his chances of turning in a mid-range QB2 performance in his debut.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): It may be hard to make room in your lineup for Charbonnet this week given that there are no byes, and you probably didn’t draft him as a starter, but he’s got a great opportunity to make a splash in week 1 if you’re in deeper leagues or need a stand-in for Alvin Kamara or JT this week. The Rams stripped down their defense around Aaron Donald, and they’re going to struggle to slow down most competent offenses. The Seahawks certainly have a competent offense (they ranked 9^th in points scored and 13^th in total yards in ’22), and they may look to ease Kenneth Walker III in as he comes back from a preseason groin injury. Walker should be able to play in week 1, but Charbonnet will likely get more chances to spell him than you’d expect, especially if the Seahawks are able to pull away on the scoreboard. Seattle is a 5-point favorite, but I think this could be more lopsided than that. 15+ touches against a bad defense isn’t out of the question for Charbs in week 1.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. TB): The Vikings aren’t playing the same games with Addison that they did with Justin Jefferson in his rookie year. There’s no pretense about Addison sitting to start the year behind a veteran like Bisi Johnson. Addison sat out the entire preseason along with the rest of the starters and should be locked in as the WR2 to open the season. The Vikings are a team that figures to throw the ball a lot this season, and the Buccaneers allowed the 8^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers last year. There’s an element of the unknown here since we haven’t seen the Vikings’ first-string offense at all this preseason, but I like Addison and an upside WR3/flex option this week. The Vikings are tied for the 4^th-highest implied point total this week in Vegas odds.

WR Marvin Mims, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Mims was an intriguing late pick in drafts coming into the preseason, but injuries to Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy have made him the opening day WR2 in what should be a much-improved offense under Sean Payton. The Raiders ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA in 2022, and while they brought in Marcus Peters to improve the secondary, Mims should mostly avoid his coverage. Courtland Sutton figures to be the top target earner in week 1, but things are wide open beyond that in this passing game. 6+ targets is very possible for Mims, and he’s an upside WR4 this week in a good matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Richardson gets the starting nod for week 1 and his expected rushing output will give him top-12 upside every single week, but I would be cautious with him in his NFL debut. We’ve seen 8 prominent mobile QBs make their first NFL start in the last 5 years (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis). None of them have finished as a top-10 QB in their first start. Kyler finished as QB11, Hurts as QB12, and Lamar as QB13, and none of the others finished higher than QB20. I like Richardson’s chances to post double-digit rushing attempts in this game against a Jacksonville defense that allowed the 3^rd-most QB rush yards per game last year, but I just don’t know that he has the ceiling to outweigh the potential downside in 1-QB formats this week. You should absolutely be starting him in Superflex leagues, but I’d look for safer options in 1-QB formats.

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Stroud gets the starting nod for week 1, but the preseason showed us that he’s still got some work to do before he should be plugged into lineups. The Ravens were just a middling QB defense last season (14^th-fewest QB points allowed in ’22), but they ranked 5^th in the league in sacks last season and should have no problem getting after Stroud with the Texans missing starting tackle Tytus Howard. You might not have better options in Superflex leagues, but I’d lean towards starting a different QB2 ahead of him if you can.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Bigsby should open the season in a backfield committee with Travis Etienne, but he’s on the wrong side of the committee. Etienne handled two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps with the first-team offense and ran more than 3 times as many receiving routes as Bigsby this preseason. Goal line work and receiving work are the high-value touches for fantasy, and those should go to Etienne at least early on this season. The Colts would be a favorable matchup if we knew Bigsby would get significant usage (they allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to running backs last season), but as the Jaguars’ clear RB2, I’d keep him sidelined this week.

RB Evan Hull, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Hull may have some appeal to you this week if you have him in deeper leagues. The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss as they take on the Jaguars, leaving just Deon Jackson and Hull in the backfield. I expect the Colts will elevate Jake Funk from the practice squad to serve as the RB3, but Jackson and Hull should see the bulk of the work. If we knew for sure that Jackson would handle the early-down work and Hull would handle the passing-down work, I’d like Hull a bit more in week 1 - the Colts are 5-point underdogs who should have to throw more than they want to, and the Jaguars allowed the 2^nd-most RB catches per game last year – but I don’t think the workload split will be that clean. In the team’s final preseason game, Jackson and Hull both worked full drives while the first team offense was in the game, with Jackson playing 2 or 3 drives for every 1 that Hull played. That kind of workload isn’t going to get him to fantasy relevance in week 1. Take a wait-and-see approach and keep him in mind for week 2 vs. the Texans if his usage looks good this week and Moss remains out.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): There’s a lot of excitement this season about the new-look Ravens’ offense under Todd Monken. They should throw the ball significantly more than they have in years past, but I’m not sure they’ll need to throw a ton in week 1. The Ravens are 10-point favorites in this game, and the Texans were significantly better at defending the pass than the run last season. The defensive scheme could look a lot different this year under new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Former coach Lovie Smith is one of the godfathers of the Tampa-2 defense. Ryans figures to call more cover-3 and cover-4 and be more aggressive with blitzing. The Texans had the third-lowest blitz rate in the league last year. Those new coverage schemes could open up the short middle of the field for Zay to work some magic, but I’d still prefer to wait until we see how targets are distributed in this offense before getting Flowers into any lineups, especially since game script should keep the Ravens running the ball this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): JSN suffered a wrist injury in camp that made it look like he might be sidelined for the first game or two of the season, but he returned to practice this week and has a very real chance of playing in the opener Sunday. If he’s able to go, I’d expect that the Seahawks don’t immediately throw him into a full workload after he got such limited practice time in camp. If he draws even a handful of targets in the opener, I’d see that as a win. Smith-Njigba is eventually going to make his presence felt in this offense, but I wouldn’t trust him to do it in week 1, even in a plus matchup against a Rams defense that allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game last year and got substantially worse in the offseason.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Mingo enters week 1 as the Panthers’ WR2 behind Adam Thielen if preseason usage is to be trusted. Mingo was in a route on 94% of Bryce Young’s preseason dropbacks, and he earned a 20% target rate on those routes. What concerns me is that only 50% of those targets were catchable. He and Bryce were just not fully on the same page. Mingo’s got a little extra upside this week with the rest of the WR group battling injuries, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than a WR4 this week who is a better play in non-PPR and half-PPR formats rather than full PPR. That WR4 designation would only apply if Adam Thielen sits this one out. I’d slide Mingo lower if Thielen is able to play. The former Viking had a 35% target share from Young in the preseason, and all those targets were catchable.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Johnston has a ton of potential this year in what should be a high-powered, high-volume Chargers passing game, but that potential will likely wait a few weeks to shine through. The Chargers sat their starters in the final preseason game, and at wide receiver that meant Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer. Johnston was on the field for that game, signaling that he’s not yet a starter in this offense. The talent will eventually win out and he’ll leapfrog Palmer for the WR3 role, but it may take a few weeks for that to happen. For now, you should leave Johnston parked on your bench.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Wilson will open the season as the WR2 for the Cardinals behind Marquise Brown, but this is not an offense that you want to target for fantasy lineups. Whether it’s Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune under center, this team figures to struggle badly on offense. They have the lowest implied point total of week 1 at just 15.5 points. Wilson should get plenty of playing time and a healthy number of targets this season, but he’ll likely be a fringe flex play until Kyler Murray returns (IF Kyler Murray returns). In week 1, Wilson faces a Washington defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest PPR points to wide receivers lined up out wide in 2022.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Kincaid has been one of the more polarizing players in this year’s draft class. On the one hand, the Bills already have a pretty solid young tight end in Dawson Knox and rookie tight ends rarely ever produce in fantasy. On the other hand, all reports out of camp are that Kincaid will be used all over the formation and that he’s been a perfect fit in the offense and has a nice rapport with Josh Allen. I think Kincaid is going to be a fringe TE1 as a rookie and wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to start him this week, but I don’t love this matchup for him. The Jets ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA last season and returned pretty much everyone, and while they were worse against tight ends last year than against wide receivers, they were mostly susceptible to in-line tight ends, which is the role Dawson Knox will play most often. Don’t be surprised if Knox finds the end zone and outscores Kincaid on Monday night.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Tune has a chance to be the starter in week 1 (Jonathan Gannon has declined to name a starter in hopes of keeping some sort of strategic advantage), but even if he gets the nod, you shouldn’t consider starting Tune unless forced to. The Commanders ranked 13^th in pass defense DVOA, and were 10^th in QB pressure rate in 2022, and there’s a chance they get Chase Young back for the opener. The Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the league and have an implied point total of just 15.5 points in this game. Tune is probably a bottom-3 starting option among all starting QBs if he gets the start in week 1.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): Johnson will have a ton of upside as the season progresses in what should be a very run-heavy offense for Chicago, but Khalil Herbert has entrenched himself as the RB1 on this team to open the season after seeing two-thirds of the team rushing attempts with the first team offense this preseason. Roschon needs to work his way into a bigger role before you can consider him in lineups.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 1: @NO): Spears has earned the Titans’ RB2 job in training camp and is electric with the ball in hands, but the problem is that his RB2 spot is behind RB1 Derrick Henry, who dominates backfield touches in Tennessee. In the games he played, Henry handled 89% of the running back rushing attempts and 51% of the running back targets for the Titans in 2022. Maybe that changes since Spears is an upgrade over Hassan Haskins, Dontrell Hilliard, and Julius Chestnut, but the likeliest place for Spears to contribute is in the passing game, and the Saints allowed the 5^th-fewest running back receiving yards in 2022. Keep Tyjae benched for week one.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Miller is battling a hamstring injury that could keep him sidelined in week 1. Even if he plays, I’d expect him to function as the clear RB2 behind Jamaal Williams. It’s a huge blow for Miller, who likely loses out on an opportunity to make an impression while Alvin Kamara is suspended.

RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The addition of Dalvin Cook has relegated Abanikanda to RB3 on this team. There was hope that the rookie would get some work in the early part of the season as Breece Hall works his way back to full strength, but with Cook on board he’ll be limited to scraps during that period, and even less work as the season wears on and Breece hits 100%. He’ll likely need an injury ahead of him to be fantasy relevant.

RB Chase Brown, CIN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown struggled to make any movement up the Bengals’ depth chart this preseason. He may open the season behind all of Joe Mixon, Trayveon Williams, and Chris Evans. He should be on the waiver wire in any non-dynasty leagues.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Evans looks likely to open the season as the Rams’ RB3 behind Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. There’s no need to consider him this week.

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Rodriguez is the RB3 in Washington behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. His skill-set mirrors Robinson pretty well, so he may get some run if anything were to happen to B-Rob, but for now, he’s an afterthought in this offense.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Downs opens the season as the Colts’ WR3, but this figures to be a run-first offense with a potentially narrow target tree. Downs saw just a 7% target share with the first-team offense in the preseason. Jacksonville did allow the 6^th-most PPR points to slot wide receivers last season, but I wouldn’t count on a big debut from Downs even in this matchup. He may develop into a valuable PPR receiver later in the season, but there could be some growing pains for this offense early on.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Palmer enters the season as the WR3 for the Bucs, but he may be as low as 5^th in line for targets in this offense that figures to play slower and be more balanced than it was a year ago. They could throw the ball nearly 200 fewer times than they did last year, and it wouldn’t be shocking. The Vikings are a burnable defense, but Palmer likely won’t see enough week 1 opportunities to make a fantasy impact.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): The Giants’ depth chart at WR is going to be fluid this year, but I expect it’ll take time for Hyatt to develop into anything more than a situational deep threat. The Cowboys’ secondary has a reputation for being aggressive and giving up big plays when they get burned by it, but that reputation is largely a remnant from 2021. The Cowboys allowed 22 completions of 35+ yards in 2021, but cut that number nearly in half to 13 in 2022 while ranking 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. Hyatt’s chances at cashing in a deep ball in week 1 on limited snaps aren’t high.

WRs Xavier Hutchinson & Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): The WR depth chart is fluid in Houston, and Hutchinson & Dell both impressed in camp and in the preseason, but the Texans will open the season with Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods as starters in 3-WR sets. If you have the rookies or John Metchie rostered, the hope is that they make the most of limited opportunities early on and earn a bigger role as the season progresses.

WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Tillman has flashed in camp, but he’ll undoubtedly open the season as no better than the team’s WR4 behind Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Rice will start his career in Kansas City in a similar place on the depth chart to where Skyy Moore started his a year ago – as a sub package player who will only see a handful of snaps each week. Moore didn’t reach 50% of the snaps in any game last year, and he reached double-digit PPR points just once all season. Rice has even more competition for playing time than Moore had last year. 

WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): Boutte did well just to make the Patriots opening 53-man roster, but getting playing time will be another challenge altogether. Kayshon may have a sliver of opportunity with Tyquan Thornton opening the season on IR, but the starting WRs in 3-wide sets for week 1 figures to be DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne. Boutte will have to work his way up the depth chart.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 1: @Den.): Mayer should take the starting TE job soon in Vegas, but preseason usage says that Austin Hooper will open the season as the starter. There are too many quality TE options available for week 1 to consider throwing a dart at Mayer when we don’t know how much he’ll actually play.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: vs. SF): You don’t need me to tell you that Washington is playing behind Pat Freiermuth in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Steelers try to work the rookie onto the field in goal line situations since he’s a good blocker and a match-up nightmare at 6’7”, but that’ll make him no more than a weekly TD dart throw unless something happens to Muth.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Devon Achane, MIA (Wk. 1: @LAC): Achane’s prospects for week 1 got an unexpected boost when Jeff Wilson Jr. was placed on IR last week. There’s still some uncertainty about his workload with Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed still around, but this looks like a great opportunity for the speedy Achane to make a splash in his debut. The Chargers have ranked in the bottom-6 in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry allowed in each of the last 2 seasons, and they return 6 of their starting front 7 from a year ago and promoted from within for their new defensive coordinator. The one new addition up front, Eric Kendricks, should help with an 81.1 run defense grade from PFF, but this should still be a burnable run defense. The Chargers allowed 12.2% of rushing attempts against them last year to go for 10+ yards. Who better to punish that defense than Achane, who runs a 4.32 second 40-yard dash? There is sneaky upside here in deep leagues and DFS formats.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Tucker looks poised to enter the season as the Bucs RB2 behind Rachaad White, and if White doesn’t improve on his abysmal efficiency numbers from last season, we could slowly see Tucker evolve from change-of-pace back into the starter as the season wears on. I wouldn’t plug him in for the opener, but he’s a great bench stash if you have room for him on your roster. He could be a workhorse back by the back half of the season that you can acquire for free right now.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): McLaughlin hasn’t been talked about a ton this preseason, but he’s notable as an undrafted free agent who made the Broncos opening roster. McLaughlin is undersized at 5’7”, 187 lbs., but he’s an explosive athlete who rushed for nearly 1,600 yards at Youngstown State last year, and the Broncos’ offense may have a fantasy relevant role for him.  Head coach Sean Payton’s offenses have utilized what he calls a ‘Joker’ role that gets heavily used in the passing game. Payton describes it as “either a running back or tight end with exceptional ball skills, and then you can work matchups.” He’s used running backs Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara all in that role with great success in the past. He’s mentioned McLaughlin and tight end Greg Dulcich as candidates for the role this year. McLaughlin is nothing more than a stash in deeper leagues right now (especially dynasty leagues), but there’s a chance he has a meaningful role as a receiving back this year, and even an outside shot that he supplants Samaje Perine for the RB2 role behind Javonte Williams.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): It’s sounding like a long shot that Cooper Kupp will suit up for week 1 at this point. If Kupp sits out, Nacua seems like a lock to start in 3-WR sets along with Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell. The most important detail in determining which WR in this offense you want to start is pre-snap alignment. Which guy is going to play the slot? The Seahawks allowed just 89 PPR points all season in 2022 to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter. No other team allowed fewer than 140. The Seahawks allowed 327 PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. Typically, Cooper Kupp is the Rams’ slot WR. Van Jefferson played just 17.5% of his snaps from the slot in 2022, and the diminutive Atwell played just 22.7% of his snaps there. Pay attention to reports this week to see if you can discern who will line up in the slot most often. My guess would be Atwell, but if it turns out to be Nacua, the rookie could have big upside in his debut for deeper PPR leagues. 

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): Reed could have a sizable week one role for the Packers if Romeo Doubs misses the opener. Reed is already set to open the season as the Packers’ WR3, but he’d be elevated to WR2 for this game if Doubs misses. We still don’t really know what the target distribution will look like here, but the Bears ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season despite limiting tight ends to the 4^th-fewest PPR points. WRs and RBs carved them up last season in the passing game. The addition of Tremaine Edmunds and his 88.1 PFF coverage grade should help them slow down the running backs, but it should open things up for Reed and Christian Watson to have a nice week 1. Reed could draw 6+ targets on Sunday.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): LaPorta dominated first team TE reps throughout the preseason, and he enters week 1 as the clear cut starting tight. The Lions are without game-breaking wide receiver Jameson Williams for the first 6 weeks of the season so LaPorta might be as high as 3^rd or 4^th in the target pecking order to open the season. The Lions are likely to be chasing points on Thursday night as 4.5-point underdogs to the defending champs, so game script should lead to a solid amount of passing volume. LaPorta should be in line for 5+ targets in the opener against a defense that allowed 9 tight end touchdowns last season. He’s a good option for DFS lineups this week and could be a valuable fill-in if your starter is Travis Kelce or you’re stuck without a top-10 tight end.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): I mention Musgrave here as more of a stash than an immediate starter, but he’s going to play a meaningful role in this offense from day one. Jordan Love had 37 dropbacks in the preseason, and Musgrave was in a route on 84% of them and earned a 22% target share. Musgrave could be start-able in fantasy leagues sooner rather than later, but I don’t love his week one matchup – as I mentioned above the Bears allowed the 4^th-fewest TE PPR points last season. Take a wait-and-see approach before inserting Musgrave into lineups.

That’s all I’ve got for week 1. Hopefully, it helps you pull out a victory in your season opener. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are already banged up entering week 1 and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Folk, give yourselves a round of applause! We all did it!!

We have all gotten through the pain and torment that is the annual six to seven month period of our lives that does NOT include football!

Yes, we got a small taste of football with a full college schedule this past weekend. But, I mean, come on! There’s nothing like a full Sunday of the NFL.

I don’t know about you, but I’d say that it’s been LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – NEW ORLEANS over Carolina – Well Panthers fans, at least after this miserable season, you’ll still have your first round pick to look forward to!

15 – CINCINNATI over New England – The Patriots have nothing around the quarterback right now – its smart to sit Drake Maye until they can get him some help. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that once the season ends…THE PATRIOTS WILL BE ON THE CLOCK WITH THE FIRST PICK IN THE DRAFT.

14 – BUFFALO over ARIZONA – With everyone that was lost over the off-season, this could be the make or break season for Josh Allen’s career.

13 – MIAMI over Jacksonville – Take the over on this one!

12 – SAN FRANCISCO over New York Jets – I’m not buying the Jets hype at all. They’ll comfortably finish third in the AFC East.

11 – SEATTLE over Denver – Well at least the Broncos were able to get away from Russell Wilson …

10 – ATLANTA over Pittsburgh – …well unfortunately the Steelers were not able to get away from Russell Wilson.

9 – KANSAS CITY over Baltimore – Hard to see the Chiefs making the same Thursday Night home opener mistake that they made last season.

8 – CHICAGO over Tennessee – I am fully on board the Bears hype train. No Super Bowl yet, but improvement and maybe even the playoffs.

7 – DETROIT over Los Angeles Rams – We are going into a season where the Lions are expected to make the playoffs … this is weird!

6 – Green Bay over PHILADELPHIA – Why can’t we just get an extended period of the Packers not having a potential MVP candidate quarterback??

5 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – The Raiders put up 63 points on the Chargers the last time they played – maybe brining in Jim Harbaugh will be able to keep that number in the low 40s this time around.

4 – Houston over INDIANAPOLIS – This time last year I made a comment about how rough a year the Texans were going to have last season … … … I’d like to apologize.

3 – Dallas over CLEVELAND – This just seems like one of those games you expect the Cowboys to blow but escape with a win somehow.

2 – WASHIGNTON over TAMPA BAY – The Texans last year made a huge jump behind the play of their rookie quarterback – that will sound familiar this year.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Minnesota – Another year of keeping the Giants on the one-point line if you think they are going to win.