Six weeks of the season are in the books and unfortunately, no perfect lineups to show for it; let's change that around! This week we are going with a low cost QB/WR stack who face off against a team that scores a lot of points, spending high on a couple of stud RBs with great matchups and selecting a duo of old man WRs whose teams happen to be going head to head.
QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ - $7,100 at NE: Fitzpatrick has been steady all season and should get a boost in production this week up against New England. Look for the Jets to throw the ball more than normal to keep up in this game as well as there being a high potential for garbage time points.
RB - Devonta Freeman, ATL - $8,700 at TEN: Freeman has been shredding defenses all season and the Titans 5th worst run defense isn't going to stop him this week. Great matchup here as the Falcons should have a lead throughout the game which leans the offense even further towards the run.
RB - Todd Gurley, STL - $7,400 vs. CLE: It looks like Tre Mason will be sitting out week 7 so Todd Gurley will be getting a huge workload against the worst run defense in the NFL. Great price tag for the value here.
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - $7,800 vs. BAL: Old man receiver number 1 in our lineup has a great matchup against the 4th worst pass defense. Fitzgerald also should get a boost this week as it looks like John Brown will not be playing due to a hamstring injury.
WR - Steve Smith, BAL - $6,900 at ARI: Old man receiver number 2 in our lineup has a tough matchup against the Cardinals, but his high volume of targets will make up for it since Flacco has no one else to throw to.
WR - Eric Decker, NYJ - $6,200 at NE: Selecting Decker as a wide receiver stack to Fitzpatrick. The Patriots like to scheme against a the opposing teams best player which means that Brandon Marshall should draw the defenses attention away from Decker.
TE - Travis Kelce, KC - $6,000 vs. PIT: Kelce should continue to see an increase in targets after Jamaal Charles was injured and he may see even more this week as Jeremy Maclin still hasn't been cleared to play from a concussion he received last week.
K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE - $5,100 vs. NYJ: Rolling with the kicker that scores the most points.
DEF - Atlanta, ATL - $4,700 at TEN: Unfortunately the Broncos are on a bye this week but Atlanta draws a great matchup against a Titans team that giving up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.
Week 8 was one of the worst injury weeks in recent memory. Even the return of Dez Bryant and Ben Roethlisberger couldn't soften the blow. Several big names went down in a set of noon games that seemed to have a new injury every 15 minutes. So, pardon my slight exaggeration as we get on with this week's casualty report.
Quarterbacks -
Josh McCown has been injured two weeks in a row. He hurt his shoulder week 7, and now his ribs in week 8. He left the game with a few minutes remaining, and now his status for week 9's Thursday night matchup with Cincinnati is up in the air. McCown has averaged 20 points/game over his last 6 games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick injured the thumb on his non-throwing hand and his status is currently day to day. Geno Smith inspired no confidence from the Jets, who were reportedly calling around for a QB before the game was even over. We'll know later on in the week if he'll be starting against the Jags Sunday.
Running Backs -
Le'Veon Bell has been placed on IR, and his torn MCL means that his season is done. He seemed to pick right up where he left off, so it's a shame that he goes down right as Big Ben comes back. He'll be back in full force next year, and for now, he makes Deangelo Williams the hottest waiver pick up this week.
Matt Forte exited Sunday's game against the Vikings, and of course, the Bears were very hush-hush about it. They did clue us in a little bit later on - Forte hurt his MCL, but doesn't need surgery and should only miss a couple weeks. Forte's absence makes Jeremy Langford possibly the second hottest waiver pickup this week.
Reggie Bush slipped on some concrete and tore his ACL, ending his season, and possibly his career. The 49ers are one of the biggest messes in recent memory, so whoever does wind up replacing Bush will have a really hard time being fantasy relevant. The only hope for fantasy value there is when Carlos Hyde returns.
Khiry Robinson wins the most painful injury of the week award - the worst award you can win on a weekly basis. A broken tibia will end his season, where from fantasy football's perspective, he was just vulturing TD's from Mark Ingram. The Saints will likely sign a third guy, but look for Ingram to monopolize the Saints backfield for now.
Wide Receivers -
Steve Smith Sr. is a guy who I've come to really admire as an NFL player. He's of the toughest players that I can remember watching, so seeing him be carried off the field with a towel covering his face was a little hard to watch. I don't want to see this be his last moment on an NFL field, and hope, like Jim Harbaugh, that he comes back next year. For the rest of 2015, Kamar Aiken will move up to the #1 WR spot in Baltimore. Aiken is still young, and won't be able to produce anywhere close to Smith's numbers.
Calvin Johnson suffered an ankle injury which was probably minor, but since it occurred in a blowout loss, he didn't return to the game. The Lions have the week off coming back from London, so we won't know a lot about Johnson until next week, but there's no reason to think he'll miss week 10.
Keenan Allen has an interesting injury track from the game Sunday. He left, reportedly with a shoulder injury, then it was called back spasms, but now the Chargers report that he is out indefinitely with a kidney injury. It's pretty safe to assume that he will miss week 9 and try to get back after the Chargers' week 10 bye.
Kendall Wright suffered a sprained MCL, which reportedly feels "horrible". Hey, it's nice to know that not everyone has a canned cliché response about an injury. Wright's absence from the lineup may finally lead the way to Dorial Green-Beckham getting some action week 9, when Marcus Mariota is expected to return.
John Brown is a savage, apparently. Go read his twitter if you're trying to figure that one out. Brown disappointed everyone who started him this week by pulling the rare move of being active, but not getting into the game. Clearly, his hamstrings are an issue, but he has a bye week to heal up and we'll know more about his week 10 status a week from now.
Tight Ends -
Larry Donnell was carted off the field in New Orleans, but his injury was just apparently a muscle spasm in his shoulder or neck, which is good news (relatively speaking). It's not clear if he'll be playing week 9 yet, we'll know more by Wednesday. Either way, he's not fantasy relevant for now.
Ladarius Green was in line to get a lot of work with a hobbled Antonio Gates, but then went down with his own injury in the first quarter. With Gates back on the field, the Chargers won't rush Green back, though they really are hurting with injuries this year. The Chargers play Monday night, which means we won't have an official injury report until Thursday night.
Garrett Celek left the game with a concussion, but is now the top tight end in San Francisco with Vernon Davis being traded to the Broncos. Celek won't be a TE-1, especially on this anemic offense.
Zap! You have the lethal, fantasy football death ray in your hands and it's time to use it against the rival, 'wasting' space scum in your league. I'm going to explain how to switch that laser from stun to disintegrate, resulting in mismatched trades in your favor. Now listen up, some of your fantasy foes might be a little too savvy to pull the trigger on one of your 'delicious dishes of deception'. However, most are hungry for a move that appears to fatten their roster but in reality, equals the caloric content of a few carrot sticks.
As the season unfolds, the value of NFL players becomes apparent if not evident. Injuries, demotions, promotions and evolving styles of play can and will affect the value of players- whether they are proven veterans, 2nd tier skill guys or up and comers. A great piece of advice is not to get too sentimental when it comes to name recognition. Just because a guy is a household name and has past seasons of numerical glory to back up his value, doesn't mean he can't turn into a 'Johnny Bum' overnight... even barring a major injury. Sometimes a new coach, system or quarterback can change the dynamic of a team, resulting in a decreased workload or maybe just getting fewer looks while playing the same amount of snaps. Sometimes it's just the player himself; maybe underachieving while team competition at that position is becoming the better option. Bottom line is that fantasy value is hiding all over the place, and if you're smart, you can grab no-namers off the waiver wire as well as an opponent's roster. Names are just names and the past is the past. The present and future are the only factors of time you need to concern yourself with.
Now, with all of the above being said, you can also deal a flash in the pan for a steady, well-known player that might have a minor injury or is just slow getting out of the gate this season. There is no true system or one method that is universal. Like life itself, all decisions are situational. The moves you make are going to depend on your team's needs(injuries, handcuffs, bye-week fillers,etc.) as well as taking advantage of others to strengthen your bench. That is one point I cannot stress enough: build a solid bench! If you are barely hanging on to your fantasy strength by starters only, you need to get on the good foot and start making moves... via trades and free agency. The whole point to any of this is winning your league. Yes, there is luck involved but the best players on the block know how to put together a strong, well-balanced squad.
Entice the competition by making it seem you are unsure or hesitant when making a trade offer. In the comments section of a trade offer sheet, write things such as, "Not sure I want to offer this" or "I'm taking a big risk unloading this guy, but...". This will have people not adept in psychological manipulation thinking that you're the one who doesn't have a fantasy clue. Most times in a competitive league, this won't happen. For every time that it does work, the instant rise in team potential - as well as peace of mind to your fantasy supremacy - will be worth the moves you make. Manipulation is the key factor. Make it seem like you're giving up more to get less even though this isn't the case. You may only be gaining a little from certain trades but any advantage turns you into the victor of the deal. Sure, things can always backfire, that is the nature of sports gambling. Nonetheless, you have to roll the dice.
Here are a few players from the 2016 season to trade for and to trade away:
You want Eddie Lacy. Slow start, but two road games to begin the season with one against a stout Minnesota D. Green Bay's next 4 games are at home against mediocre defenses.
You want Willie Snead. This guy is not a flash in the pan. Check out his numbers through his last 17 games. Almost the same stat line of Miami's Jarvis Landry.
You want Mohamed Sanu. With Julio Jones always nursing some sort of minor injury and still getting double covered, Sanu will be an excellent weekly WR2, especially playing in the warmth of Atlanta.
You want Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's no Joe Namath... yet.
You might want to trade away Travis Benjamin. Emerging as San Diego's WR1 by injury default, he has 2 consecutive double digit weeks and is coming off a monster, 2 TD game. He could be a 'flash in the pan' player as I mentioned earlier and may not live up to his new role as the #1 guy. This makes him excellent trade bait for a quality player with above average weekly consistency over a boom or bust candidate.
You might want to trade away Isaiah Crowell. Coming off two consecutive weeks scoring a TD in each contest and amassing over 230 total yards, his upside looks great. However, Browns' QB Josh McCown got injured, left the game and the team switched to the run... which did not work. Additionally, 85 of Crowell's 133 yards came from one play. I wouldn't say he has no value, but you can find better out there, especially a guy who isn't on the Browns. This is the perfect player to entice a fantasy rookie or someone who doesn't do their research, looking to land a cheap thrill.
You might want to trade away Charles Sims. Definitely some upside with Doug Martin leaving week 2's game with a hamstring injury and no exact timetable for his return. Sure, Sims didn't fare that well this past week, but it was on the road against Arizona's tough defense. He'll have value to those in need of RBs because for the uncertain future, he will be the main ball carrier in Tampa Bay... for now.
Some of the shittiest teams in the league are on bye this week, resulting in a lot of unpredictable match-ups on the schedule for week 8. The largest point spread this week opened at just 5.5 points for New England over Buffalo, the first time in weeks there wasn't a double digit spread. This would be my pick if the Patriots were still available to me, as I have my highest points on them in the confidence pool as well. Without a healthy McCoy I see no way the Bills can hang with the Pats.
The next big favorites are the Broncos, Vikings, and Cowboys. I think the Broncos and Cowboys will probably take care of business in these games, but I am shying away from both of them. The Cowboys are at home vs an impressive looking Eagles team coming off an upset victory over the previously undefeated Vikings. In doing so I think they may have given teams the formula to dismantle Sam Bradford, bring the pressure! Maybe they are able to do the same thing to Dak and take control of that division.
I think a fired up Bears team with a returning Jay Cutler upset the Vikings at home on Monday night. The Bears season is essentially over, this will be one of their only opportunities to feel good about themselves this year. Like him or hate him, Jay Cutler possesses physical abilities that Brian Hoyer does not. If the Bears can come out focused and get an early lead I like their chances. Minnesota is a team that thrives on playing from ahead.
The Broncos are similar to the Vikings in their need for early leads in games. When these teams met 2 weeks ago the Chargers got an early lead and dismantled the Broncos. If it wasn't for some special teams mishaps for San Diego, the final score would have been embarrassing. Maybe Denver does much better at home with a normal NFL week to work with, but for that reason, I am not picking them either.
Last week I had the Bengals over the Browns in the battle of Ohio. The Bengals knocked the Browns 3rd starting quarterback of the year out of the game and cruised to a two touchdown victory.
Starting their fourth quarterback of the year this week I felt like the Jets were a slam dunk pick. My confidence was reduced slightly when it was announced that Josh McCown may return for this game. At the very least he is an NFL quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a chip on his shoulder after being benched for lousy Geno Smith. Baltimore beat Cleveland, New York just beat Baltimore equals a Jets win, that's just math. Expect big numbers from him and his receivers in this one as the Browns get one loss closer to that number 1 pick in next year's draft.
Cheers! Drink Five!!
Week Pick
1 Seattle
2 Carolina
3 Miami
4 New England
5 Arizona
6 Tennessee
7 Cincinnati