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The AFC south had 2 of the top 3 picks in this year’s draft, meaning that half of the division was really, really bad last year. The Colts did manage to make it to the AFC championship game, going through the Bengals and Broncos before a “deflating” loss in New England. This year, everyone looks to improve their team, and the Houston Texans are going to be featured on this season’s Hard Knocks, starting August 11^th.

Check our breakdown of the AFC South

Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/4/15, AFC South Spotlight: 2015 Fantasy Preview

Indianapolis Colts (11-5):

Add/Re-sign –

Frank Gore, RB – Signed as a FA, 8.5mil in guarantees, big things are expected.

Andre Johnson, WR – Signed as a FA, 3 year, 21 mil contract.

Andrew Luck, QB – Club exercised his 5^th year option, no brainer of the century.

Phillip Dorsett, WR – Drafted 1^st round, 29^th overall in a position they already have depth.

Josh Robinson, RB – Drafted in the 6^th round, gets lots of MJD comparisons.

Departures –

Trent Richardson, RB – Good riddance! The ploddingist of the plodders has gone where RB’s go to die.

Reggie Wayne, WR – A former Colts superstar is left on the outside looking in, and still looking for a new team.

Issues:

The Colts are second only to the Packers in recovering from losing the best QB in franchise history. In 2011, they chanted “Suck for Luck”. This year they are Super Bowl contenders, and the favorites in some minds in the AFC. The main reason for this is Andrew Luck, a guy who has improved in each season so far in his young Career. Last season he threw for over 4700 yards and 40 TD’s (league leader), rushed for 3 TD’s and lead his team to their third straight 11-5 regular season.

So, we know that Luck is going to be great, but who’s going to be the beneficiary of his arm? Last year, T.Y. Hilton lead the team in receiving, netting over 1300 yards on 82 receptions. I expect a similar output from him this season, despite the fact that the WR core is now stacked in Indy. The additions of Andre Johnsonand Phillip Dorsett, along with Donte Moncreif, Griff Whalen and Duron Carter means that Luck is going to have plenty of secondary targets to choose from. It’s hard to predict who else will be fantasy relevant, but I suspect that Andre Johnson will rise to the top and Phillip Dorsett will be given a huge chance to contribute.

Running Back has been the weak link of the Colts offense for a while now. They have finally put the worst trade of 2013 behind them and Trent Richardson has moved on to Oakland. In his place, they have given Frank Gore, a 31-year-old RB who has been under 1000 yards only once in the last 10 years, a bunch of guaranteed money. Gore has only Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind him, so it’s clear that the Colts plan on giving him at least as much work in previous seasons, so expect around 275 carries from a healthy Frank Gore. He has had his role in the passing game in San Fran reduced in the last few seasons, but he’s been a big feature in the years before that. Pay attention during preseason to how much Luck throws to him out of the backfield. Gore has an ADP of 13 (overall 28) and could reasonably live up to that spot. I’m skeptical that rookie Josh Robinson has fantasy value in his first year based on the value that the Colts are placing on Gore.

Tight End might be the most “toss-up” position on the team, though it seems that Dwayne Allen will be taking the primary role, over Coby Fleener. Allen is a more complete player and is entering the season as the #1 TE on the team. I don’t expect anything more than a ceiling of low-top 10 for Allen, as there are just too many fast targets for Luck to hit and not enough work at the TE position. If Allen can put up the same TD’s as last season, he will find his way into the top 10 (12 last year).

Houston Texans (9-7):

Add/Re-sign –

Ryan Mallett, QB – Signed to extension, will compete for starting job.

Brian Hoyer, QB – Signed from Cleveland, will compete for starting Job.

Vince Wilfork, NT – As if they needed more help on their D-line.

Chris Polk, RB – Suddenly in the mix with the Foster injury.

Cecil Shorts, WR – Drink five! He was a FA, signed a 2 year, $6 mil contract.

Jaelen Strong, WR – Third round pick by the Texans.

Departures –

Andre Johnson, WR – Released by the team, signed by their toughest division opponents.

Case Keenum, QB – Traded to StL, they’re starting over at QB this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – The smartest man in the NFL never gets to stay somewhere for very long, it seems. Traded to the Jets.

Issues:

The Texans will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series this season, which to me, traditionally means a couple of things. First, any drama on the team will be exaggerated ten-fold. Secondly, these players are likely to be over-valued come draft time. Most people are not exposed to EVERYONE, so the players they are exposed to a lot will have an artificially inflated value. Finally, HBO will stress the biggest positional competition, which is QB this season, so that means more drama, more “at home” scenes and more uncomfortable cut scenes.

QB is definitely a position that is up in the air on this team. Everyone knows that QB is the most important position on the offense, and everyone knows that the Texans don’t have one yet. This puts far too much pressure on their running game and defense to be perfect. This year, it looks like camp will feature a competition between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Hoyer started with the first team reps, but Mallett has also been taking reps with the starters. This battle won’t likely be decided until after the third preseason game has concluded. Even once a QB is chosen, I wouldn’t consider either to be a starter in any 10-12 man leagues.

The RB position, once secured by Arian Foster, is now up for grabs. Foster suffered a groin injury on 8/3 and it will require surgery and he will likely be on the IR/designated to return list to begin the season, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until week 10. This leaves a huge, warrior-poet sized hole in our season of Hard Knocks AND the Texans backfield. Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk will battle in camp to get the starter’s role. Blue will be the favorite to get the job, as he’s filled in for Foster in the past already, but it may end up being RBBC once the season starts. I’m just sad that we’re losing the guy who has tweets that warn us of the dangers of bacteria in your gums, confessions of stolen towels from Trump hotels and his disinterest in Seinfeld. Look at the news over the next few days, the Texans will be shopping for a free agent to add to this RB group.

The WR position has changed a bit in Houston, mostly since Andre Johnson will not be there for the first time in 12 years. Filling his shoes will be DeAndre Hopkins, the clear cut #1 WR on the team. Hopkins is known for catching nearly every catchable ball thrown his way. Hopkins has what it takes to be an elite WR in this league, he just needs a QB to get him the ball. Hopkins has an ADP of 13 (WR) and 29 overall. With even adequate QB play, he can live up to those numbers. Meanwhile, Cecil Shorts will be lining up opposite him. His adp is all the way down at 72 (WR) and 186 (overall), basically undraftable. I’m all for taking a flyer on him and making everyone drink five at the end of the draft, but don’t expect a ton of fantasy production out of Jaelen Strong or Cecil Shorts unless the QB gets a big improvement.

At TE, the Texans have Garrett Graham, (not Jimmy’s little brother). Graham has had a few spots of good play, but hasn’t been used enough to really be noticed, especially when he was behind Owen Daniels. It looks like Graham is going to move into the first string spot at TE, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he will translate into a top 10 fantasy TE. There’s just too many questions at the QB position to answer it at this time.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):

Add/Re-sign –

Julius Thomas, TE – The new juice got a 5 year contract as a free agent from Jacksonville.

Bernard Pierce, RB – Claimed off waivers from Baltimore.

T.J. Yeldon, RB – 2^nd round pick (36^th overall).

Rashad Greene, WR – 5^th round pick, 139^th overall.

Departures –

Cecil Shorts, WR – Left for Texas.

Ace Sanders, WR – Released in mid-July.

Issues:

As is tradition, the Jaguars lost their first round pick to injury – Dante Fowler tore his ACL just days after being drafted. The Jaguars did have a great draft, despite the injury, picking up T.J. Yeldon in the 2^nd and Guard A.J. Cann in the third, a guy who will probably start in week 1. With some added protection and tools for Blake Bortles, I expect him to begin the process of getting better. Bortles left a lot to be desired, but he was a constant presence on a team that hasn’t had a real QB since David Gerrard. Bortles is basically the same size as Ben Roethlisberger, and big QB’s have been having a lot of success in the league lately. Bortles has the potential to be an impact player for Jacksonville, but he needs a lot of work to get there. Bortles may be a relevant QB2 in leagues that start 2 QB’s, but even that’s a stretch, for now.

At WR, the situation is rather muddy. I hate to say it, but the departure of Cecil Shorts is likely to go unnoticed in Jacksonville. They have lots of young guys, but nobody who seems to want to step up into the main role. Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Rashad Greene & company are all going to see some of their targets go to Julius Thomas, easily the most talented pass catcher on the team (even if his greatest talent is having played with Peyton Manning). There isn’t much here other than bench depth. If someone goes down, it’s possible that another player gets a big enough role that he’s worth starting in a WR3 role, but I just don’t see the garbage time points that Jacksonville has been known for in the past. They are a team that is slowly improving, and as a result, is less likely to be getting blown out week after week.

The only place where the Jags are relatively loaded would be at RB. Rookie T.J. Yeldon is sitting on top of the depth chart and should get a decent amount of carries. Toby Gerhart will resume his backup role, one that he did well with in Minnesota (though it means zero fantasy production). Denard Robinson should continue to be a wild card and third down back and have limited PPR production value, though that increases if Yeldon can’t get on the field. This rbbc will irritate fantasy owners for sure, but there may be just enough value here for people to keep coming back.

As for the TE position, I feel that Julius Thomas is still a guy who can be in the top 10 TE’s at the end of the year easily. His ADP is 10 for TE’s and 99 overall, so I see some good value here. Be patient and scoop up Thomas late, or let someone else reach for him.

Tennessee Titans (2-14):

Add/Re-sign -

Marcus Mariota (QB, Rookie)

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Rookie)

Brian Orakpo (OL, from WAS)

Dick LeBeau (Assistant Head Coach, from PIT)

Hakeem Nicks (WR, from IND)

Harry Douglas (WR, from ATL)

David Cobb (RB, Rookie)

Departures:

Jake Locker (QB, FA)

Shonn Greene (RB, FA)

Nate Washington (WR, to HOU)

Outlook:

The Titans needed a reboot pretty badly after a terrible 2-14 season in 2014. So that’s what they did. And their offseason moves have been heralded by many as being among the best in the league. Starting from under center, The Titans drafted mobile QB Marcus Mariota at #2 overall to be the new franchise QB in Tennessee. Good riddance Jake Locker! Move over, Zach Mettenberger. Mariota will take the helm of this team in 2015 and with a huge amount of rope as well. As far as how he’ll perform from a fantasy perspective, comparisons to the athleticism and rushing ability of Colin Kaepernick have been made, but Mariota is a more skilled passer out of the box. We expect there to be some stumbling out of the gate, but Mariota should be a serviceable QB2 with a high ceiling going forward. He’ll be very interesting to watch, but unfortunately the rest of the team around him is not good enough to warrant drafting him yet in standard leagues.

Kendall Wright fell off the map last year (not entirely his fault, mostly due to inconsistent QB play) after putting up some impressive stats in his 2^nd year (94 receptions for 1079 yards and 2 TDs). Maybe he doesn’t gel very well with Ken Whisenhunt’s offensive scheme? Regardless, Wright is the #1 option for the Titans and will likely finish with an improved, but still mediocre stat line this year. His ADP is in the 15^th round and he’s likely off the radar in redraft leagues, though there is value there still in PPR and dynasty leagues as a WR4/5. After Justin Hunter’s arrest for felony assault, it looks like the #2 spot in Tennessee comes down to a battle between newcomer Dorial Green-Beckham and former Falcon Harry Douglas. Although Green-Beckham is the better raw talent, I’m betting that the veteran Douglas gets the start from day 1. The 6’5”, 237 lb (reported to camp at a stunning 246 lbs) rookie could be an outstanding receiver in the NFL eventually – but for now he is still a project. Lest I forget, Hakeem Nicks is now on the Titans. Eh, his production has declined for four years straight and Tennessee is not exactly the place where you go to revive a dying career. Not expecting much relevance from Nicks.

After the wheels fell off of Shonn Greene, the Titans parted ways with him and look to use a committee at RB in 2015, made up of Bishop Sankey, David Cobb and Dexter McCluster. In his 2^nd year, Sankey has been getting the first team reps at Titans’ camp but is looking as mediocre as he did last year (152 rushes for 569 yards and 2 TDs). The magic 8-ball says that all of these running backs will be involved in the offense, making it a frustrating experience for fantasy footballers everywhere. I do think that RB David Cobb may have a bright future in the league, but that is more of a far-off glimmer at this point. Stats from this rag tag group of backs will be disappointing, at best.

Tight end Delanie Walker has enjoyed two fairly productive years in 2013 and 2014 (most recently putting up 63 receptions for 890 yards and 4 TDs) and his ADP is somewhere between the 11^th and 12^th rounds in standard drafts. With a new QB and only scattered receiving talent on the field otherwise, Walker’s role should only improve in 2015. Many experts have him ranked at the tail end of the top 10 TEs for the upcoming season and I have to agree. He’ll be receiving a lot of dump-off passes from Mariota. Anthony Fasano seems like a great guy, but he’s not fantasy relevant.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! A new season is almost upon us. You may have already drafted a fantasy team, but if you haven't, the rookies are always the hardest to predict. There's no track record to go off of, so it all becomes a guessing game based on role and perceived talent. With that in mind...I'm here to help. Each week throughout the season I'll breakdown which rookies you should start, which are borderline options, and which rookies you should sit. I'll also throw in a few deep league/cheap DFS sleepers each week as well. Since it's not quite week 1, today is about breaking down which rookies you want to own this season and why. I'll give you my quick top 10 redraft rookies, followed by a position-by-position preview. So, without further ado...

Top 10 Re-draft Rookies

1. WR Nelson Agholor, PHI: Melvin Gordon will lose touches to Danny Woodhead, Yeldon and Amari are on bad offenses. Nelson is ticketed for a big role in a high-volume attack. He's the safest rookie option.

2. RB TJ Yeldon, JAX: More on the reasoning later, but let's leave it at this - Yeldon should be a 3-down back while Gordon projects to be a 2-down back this year.

3. RB Melvin Gordon, SD: See above for reasoning

4. WR Amari Cooper, OAK: Clear-cut WR1 in an offense that will play from behind a bit.

5. RB Todd Gurley, STL: Would be number one on the list if we knew he would be ready to go at full strength week 1.

6. WR Devin Funchess, CAR: Injury to Kelvin Benjamin makes him the Panthers' WR1. His ceiling likely resembles what KB did last season.

7. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET: The longer it takes Joique to get onto the field, the larger the portion of his workload Abdullah will steal.

8. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL: Still unclear who will be the lead back in Atlanta, but Coleman was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan in the draft. Expect a 50-50 split with Freeman at a minimum.

9. WR DeVante Parker, MIA: Parker's role is unclear with a crowded group of receivers, but the Dolphins' offense might break out in a big way, and Parker might be the most talented guy in the group. I wouldn't bet against him carving out a nice role this year.

10. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN: Monster talent with a clear path the the #1 WR job in Tennessee's offense. It might not be a great offense, but if DGB's off-field troubles are behind him he could be a star soon.

Alright, there's the top 10, now onto the positional breakdowns...

QUARTERBACK:

Let's be honest, in re-draft there are only two QBs that are even worth considering. The rest of the crop may have some upside down the road...Sean Mannion is basically Mike Glennon part deux, Garrett Grayson could develop into a Joe Flacco-type at best (albeit with a weaker arm), Bryce Petty is the closest to a starting gig with only old man Fitz and inept Geno in front of him, but the rookie QB not in the top 2 with the most upside is Brett Hundley. He's just stuck behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

 I know, I didn't rank any in the top 10 rookies, and there's a good reason for that. It isn't that I don't like the top 2, I just don't see either guy being more than a low-end QB2, which means you really aren't playing either guy unless you're in a 2 quarterback league or as a bye filler. While both are borderline top-20 options at QB this year (I have Jameis at 19 and Mariota at 22), I'd give the edge to Winston because of the TD potential he has with the red zone giants he has to throw to. Both guys have illicited positive reviews in camp, but I just expect the Bucs to have a better offense than the Titans. I think the TD count for Jameis will be enough to offset the damage Mariota does on the ground, and I'm more likely to take a shot on Winston than Mariota in a 2QB league.

In dynasty leagues, I really like both guys, but I still give the edge to Jameis. Again, it mostly boils down to weapons. Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins give Winston two excellent targets who will be around a long time. Mariota gets Kendall Wright, who is a great possession WR, but the only physical freak target he has, Dorial Green-Beckham, is a huge question mark long-term due to off the field and maturity issues. Some would argue that Winston has some of those issues himself, and he probably does, but crab legs and public vulgarity and the sexual assault case are only part of the story with Winston. He's also a player who's been breaking down coverages since he was a kid watching NFL games on TV. Reading defenses and anticipating what they're doing is 2nd nature to Winston, and that is the single most important attribute to be a good NFL QB. While Mariota is a great leader with a high footbal IQ and electric running ability, I don't see that as enough to overcome his below-average situation and make him a better dynasty option than Jameis. The Titans have been one of the worst run franchises in the NFL.

RUNNING BACKS:

The rookie running back crop should have one clear-cut number 1 fantasy asset (and in dynasty leagues it does), and that guy is Todd Gurley. Unfortunately, due to a torn ACL last year at Georgia, his early season status is up in the air, opening the door for TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon to move ahead of him in re-draft formats. All three fall in the range from mid-RB2 to high RB3. There's still a very real chance that Gurley becomes a league-winner if he's back sooner than expected, but all signs point to him being eased back in to begin with. For me, Yeldon is #1 amongst the running backs in re-draft leagues. What separates him from Melvin Gordon is his 3-down role. Gordon is not good in the receiving game or in pass protection, two areas where Danny Woodhead excels, so he will likely lose touches in 3rd down situations while Yeldon will not. Yes, Gordon is in a better offense, but I still like Yeldon better. In dynasty leagues, I like Gurley at number one, but I still like Yeldon better than Gordon as I feel the Jaguars' offense will be ascending over the next couple seasons.

Beyond that trio, the next two rookie backs worth consideration in re-draft leagues are Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman. For me, I much prefer Abdullah. His athleticism is off the charts, and the offensive coordinator in Detroit is the same guy who oversaw the Saints' offense that made dangerous multi-purpose weapons out of Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. The Falcons' defense still isn't very good, so game flow might lead to less carries for Coleman. In dynasty leagues, if your league counts points for receptions, I'd even consider Abdullah ahead of Melvin Gordon despite Gordon's clear year one advantage.

As for the rest of th group, I would rank them in this order in re-draft: Matt Jones, David Cobb, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, and Jay Ajayi. Anyone who has watched the Redskins in the preseason has seen that they won't be very good. Alfred Morris gives them nothing in the passing game. Jones has been exceptional this preseason, and is likely to eventually replace Morris in the long-term. He'll have a nice role this year that should only increase going forward. Cobb is still looking at splitting work with Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, and while Sankey has looked improved thus far in the preseason, I still expect Cobb to be a factor. Duke and David Johnson both look tabbed for change-of-pace and some passing down work. I like Duke's situation better because his team looks more likely to play from behind. With Ajayi, although the Dolphins have refused to give Lamar Miller a full workload over the past couple years, Ajayi may have to work his way past Damien WIlliams to even get backup work.

Top dynasty RB options after the top 5 in order: Matt Jones, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Josh Robinson, Zach Zenner

WIDE RECEIVERS:

While the dynasty rankings at WR are bit up in the air, the re-draft ranks have a very clear top two guys: Amari Cooper and Nelson Agholor, and I prefer Agholor. The Eagles' offense is a juggernaut, and Agholor is ticketed for the role vacated by Jeremy Maclin's departure. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still trying to fight their way back to respectability. Both guys are legitimate borderline 2/3 WRs for this year, but I just like Agholor better because of the situation. Cooper could catch 90 balls this year, but Agholor won't be far behind and has much better TD potential. In dynasty leagues, it's a coin flip for me. I'd still prefer Agholor, but I think Cooper is slightly more talented.

The 2nd tier of rookie WRs in re-draft leagues consists of Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Breshad Perriman, and I would draft them in that order. Funchess should be a legitimate WR3 with the upside for more in Kelvin Benjamin's role. Parker could be a WR3 if he's able to get himself healthy and carve out a role. It might take a few weeks for him to start making an impact as he battles back from a foot injury however. Green-Beckham might have the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, but he has several red flags that make him a long-term risk. There's a clear path to DGB earning a big role in the Titans' passing game, but it's far from a certainty. As a result, Green-Beckham is a WR4 for this season, although he's being typically drafted lower than that. Breshad Perriman is also a WR4 this year, but due to his injury issues this preseason, he's a boom or bust option for this year. If healthy, he should be the number 2 WR on the Ravens after Steve Smith.

As for the rest of the WR class, the only other guys I'd strongly think about rostering in re-draft leagues are Tyler Lockett in Seattle and Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. There isn't much on the Seattle depth chart to overcome, and Lockett has been fantastic this preseason. He's a good WR5/6 option in PPR leagues who could really surprise.  Montgomery is worthy of WR 4/5 status just on the potential that he wins the WR3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense. His dynasy outlook is hurt by the impending return of Jordy Nelson next season. Phillip Dorsett could make an impact in Indy, but he has to beat out Donte Moncrief for the third WR role to do so. Kevin White may miss the whole season in Chicago, and Devin Smith will open the season dinged up for the Jets. Neither is worth a draft pick in re-draft leagues. Jaelen Strong has a shot to earn a role with the Texans, but he's yet to make much of an impact in the preseason.

Top 12 Dynasty WRs in order: Nelson Agholor, Amari Cooper, Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Kevin White, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Phillip Dorsett, Jaelen Strong,Ty Montgomery, Darren Waller

Other names to know: DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell

TIGHT ENDS:

The tight end position is typically useless in terms of rookie fantasy production, and this year looks to be about the same. The one rookie TE to be aware of is Maxx Williams in Baltimore. WIth Dennis Pitta still out and Owen Daniels gone to Denver, Williams will be expected to step in and play right away. I'd peg him as a low end TE2. I can't endorse banking on him to play a big role on your fantasy team. Outside of him, there isn't much. MyCole Pruitt might have a couple nice games in an H-Back role in Minnesota, but he isn't worth a draft pick, and Clive Walford could earn some meaningful playing time in Oakland, but that makes him maybe top-25 at the position.

Top 5 Dynasty TEs in order: Maxx Williams, MyCole Pruitt, Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James

That's it for the rookie preview. Hopefully it gives you a better grasp on who some of the guys are out there that you might not know much about if you don't watch much college football. Good luck with your fantasy drafts, and make sure to check back in each week for the Rookie Report to know what to do with your rookies on a weekly basis. And remember, have fun. Fantasy football is just a game.

Let’s get ready for some football! In our discussion we’ll mostly be talking about standard leagues unless otherwise mentioned. But, in general, just keep in mind that pass-catching RBs will be slightly more valuable in PPR leagues and we’ll all be on the same page!

So last week we analyzed both the overvalued and undervalued QBs in the NFL this season by taking a quick look at our rankings for those players vs. the ECR (expert consensus ranking from fantasypros.com) and ADP (average draft position) that the players are currently going at. This week we’ll attempt to do the same thing with RBs.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/25/15: The Preseason RB Show!) 

I say attempt, because with any offensive positional player in the NFL that is not a QB the variance is going to be higher and depend a lot more on outside factors than for quarterbacks. Not to mention the fact that the likelihood or injury goes up substantially for these players, RB especially.

John Paulsen (of 4for4.com) recently wrote an insightful column about this very subject. In trying to determine whether or not wide receivers are safer picks at various points in the draft, he crunched quite a few numbers. Ultimately, his research seems to indicate that although the top 2 RBs in any given year will generally outperform any of the other WRs in the draft, the drop-off after that point favors WR value until later rounds. For example, over the last 10 seasons (after the top 2 RBs have been taken out of the equation) 5 of the next 7 receivers offer relative value (difference between points scored and points scored by a baseline player at that position) above their trend line, while that is only true for 5 of the next 11 running backs.

Another interesting bit is that RBs taken just a little bit later (early 2^nd round) tend to outperform those taken in the middle of the first round (relative to their draft position). Anyway, just something to keep in mind. Let’s get back to it!

Undervalued RBs

Antone Smith - #52 on our rankings, ECR #75 and ADP #61. We value Antone more highly than a lot of our colleagues because he is a very dangerous playmaker on the field. Already 29 years old, Smith has never had a substantial amount of touches until the 2014 season and he ended the season with 366 yards and 5 TDs on only 36 touches. Unfortunately for Smith, he broke his leg toward the end of the season last year and finds himself striving for carries behind the split backfield of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but we know that when he gets the opportunity, he’ll make the most of it. Make no mistake, this is a flier or deep league pick only, but one that could pay off quickly should Smith see the field more than a few snaps per game.

Danny Woodhead - #25 on our rankings, ECR #42 and ADP #47. Woodhead is the little RB that could. He’s quick, scrappy and many people forget about the numbers that he put up during the 2013 season before he was injured at the beginning of 2014. In his first season on the Chargers, Woodhead rushed 106 times for 429 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TDs and put up 76 receptions for 605 yards and 6 TDs. Those numbers made him the #19 RB overall in standard scoring leagues in 2013. All signs point to Woodhead being healthy this year, and resuming his pre-injury role as a 3^rd down passing back and safety valve for Rivers which should lead to similar stats this year (although we will always plan for a regression from a career year).

Giovani Bernard - #18 on our rankings, ECR #28 and ADP #27. Bernard had a slight sophomore slump in 2014 and dealt with an injury toward the middle of the season. It seems that he is now firmly planted as the 3^rd down back behind Jeremy Hill, but even though we’re penciling Bernard in for less than 10 touches a game (down from the 16 that he averaged in 2014) he excels in the passing game and will certainly see more work in games where the Bengals fall behind on the scoreboard. At first glance it may appear that he is just a complementary back to Hill this season but the numbers say otherwise.

Chris Ivory - #20 on our rankings, ECR #27 and ADP #31. Ivory had some breakout performances in his first year with the Saints in 2010, but injuries held him back from being productive in subsequent years until he was traded to the Jets for the 2013 season. He has steadily improved there (putting up 7 TDs and almost 1000 all-purpose yards last year on 216 touches) and the other Jets’ RBs are underwhelming, to put it lightly (Bilal Powell, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley). With the recent news that Ivory may start being more active in the passing game and the current lack of quality depth at the position, we may see him in more of a 3-down role which more than warrants his position here.

Overvalued RBs

Rashad Jennings - #42 on our rankings, ECR #30 and ADP #24. Jennings had the #1 RB job for most of the 2014 season, with Andre Williams filling in at some spots and vulturing some carries as well. We’ve seen Jennings perform well, putting up 4.5 YPC in 2013 for Oakland and scoring 6 TDs that same year, but unless lightning strikes for Jennings it is likely he performs closer to his middling performance last year (only 3.8 YPC) and the Giants will form some kind of committee with Shane Vereen and Andre Williams preventing too much relevant production from Jennings this year.

Bishop Sankey - #56 on our rankings, ECR #38 and ADP #42. Sankey struggled mightily in 2014 despite being basically handed the job as lead back in Tennessee (3.7 YPC and only 2 TDs on 152 carries). With rookie David Cobb and scatback Dexter McCluster also on the squad, Sankey looks to settle in to a role as the 1a of a big committee. We’ve seen Sankey on sleeper lists and as someone to target in deep drafts but I don’t see any pluses here, especially as a part of such a young offense that has yet to prove themselves (and veteran talent Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas don’t exactly inspire trust).

Isaiah Crowell - #43 on our rankings, ECR #33 and ADP #33. Cleveland Browns.. need I say anymore? Alright, Crowell does have a little upside having scored 8 TDs last year and averaged just more than 4 YPC, but we haven’t seen either Crowell or Terrance West (both involved in a battle of irrelevancy last year for the lead back position in Cleveland) really show well on the field, which means that rookie RB Duke Johnson could just as easily find himself with the job. Seems that the overvalued RBs we’ve discussed are all having issues solidifying a role in their respective offenses.. Crowell is no different.

Carlos Hyde - #27 in our rankings, ECR #19 and ADP #17. Here’s another tough situation: although Hyde currently replaces Gore as the RB1 in that offense (which did add Reggie Bush as a passing-down back), it’s impossible to project Hyde as a top 20 pick based on his limited demonstrated skills in the NFL. Only rushing 83 times for 333 yards (4.0 YPC) last year does not tell us much, unfortunately. Even if Hyde does get the bulk of the early down work for the 49ers, though, their personnel list has been devastated in the off-season and those losses and the change to new team management does not bode well. No, it’s more likely that their offense has to pass the ball more because they fall behind in games without a dominant defense and Bush will probably factor more into that game plan than Hyde.