Fantasy Football / NFL

I’m bumping Josh Downs up after the trade to Kansas City. The Chiefs sent Indianapolis a fourth- and fifth-round pick in 2027 for Downs and a seventh. For fantasy purposes, the part I care about is what happens when Patrick Mahomes starts throwing him the ball.

Downs caught 33 of 57 targets for 354 yards and one touchdown in nine games with the Colts this year. That’s 6.3 targets and 6.5 half-PPR points per game. Over his last three games in Indy, he averaged just 22 receiving yards. I think he can improve on that pretty quickly once he’s running a regular set of routes in Kansas City.

The Chiefs and Colts have had similar passing volume. Through Week 9, Mahomes averaged 32.9 attempts per game and Daniel Jones averaged 33.6. The difference was what came out of those attempts. Mahomes averaged 7.7 yards per throw and had 14 touchdown passes in eight games. Jones averaged 5.7 yards and threw six touchdowns in nine. Give Downs six targets and a chance to turn them into four catches for 50 yards, and he’s already at seven half-PPR points before a touchdown. I can see that kind of line coming sooner in Kansas City.

The tricky part is getting those six targets. Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy have each averaged about six per game, and I’d still expect five or more most weeks when they’re healthy. Rashee Rice had 15 targets in his two games back. Over those two games, the three of them accounted for 40 of Kansas City’s 67 targets. The other wide receivers combined for seven. Downs has a chance to take over a good chunk of that work, but a regular six-target role would also mean taking looks from somewhere else. Worthy was a full participant Wednesday despite the hamstring injury, so I’m planning around him playing until we hear otherwise.

I’d pick up Downs now if he’s available. I’d use him as a deeper-league flex against Atlanta if I’m thin at receiver, and give him a week on the bench in most 12-team leagues. Watch how often he’s on the field when the Chiefs go to three receivers. If he’s getting six or seven looks with Rice, Worthy and Kelce all playing, I’ll feel a lot better about putting him in my lineup the following week.

Watch Downs’s first Chiefs press conference or see my Week 10 half-PPR rankings.

Sources include the Colts trade announcement, Downs game log, Mahomes game log, Jones game log, Chiefs target totals and Chiefs injury report.