Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
January
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! What a wild ride the 2020 season has been. The calendar has turned to 2021, and most fantasy leagues this season are now complete, but there is another week of NFL regular season football to go. While most of us know better than to play in leagues with a week 17 championship game, there are those leagues that exist, so while this week’s Rookie Report will be a little more slanted toward DFS options, I wanted to provide some insight about the rookies for those still playing for a title. Week 17 is all about motivation. What teams still have something to play for? Which teams will be phoning it in for the week? Knowing the answers to those questions will help you identify players who could have big final weeks and those who will disappoint. With that in mind, let’s dive into week 17…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 17: @KC, DrafKings main slate price: $7,100): Typically the Chiefs wouldn’t be a great matchup for a QB, but this is a game that Kansas City will just be trying to survive healthy. They’ve already clinched a playoff bye. Look for the Chargers to let Justin Herbert air it out a bit in his final regular-season game as a rookie with the Chiefs sitting the majority of their starters. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in all but 3 starts this season, and I fully expect him to keep that number at 3 this week, even with Keenan Allen sidelined again. Herbert should be a safe top-10 QB again this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $7,400): The Colts need to win this game AND have at least one other 10-5 AFC team lose in order to make the playoffs, so look for them to ride their best players to ensure they hold up their end. Over the last month, that means Taylor. JT has averaged 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown and a half per game over the past 4 weeks, and this week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards. The Jaguars have allowed at least 1 back to reach 89 yards on the ground in 5 of their past 6 games, and one over 80 scrimmage yards in all 6. Taylor should have his way in this one for as long as the game is competitive. Triple-digit yards and multiple TDs is the ceiling for Taylor in this one, but he should be a safe bet for 15+ fantasy points in just about all formats this week.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $6,700): The Ravens come into this week with both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards questionable to suit up. If both sit, Dobbins may get a crack at being a workhorse back against a defense that ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Justice Hill would likely get some change of pace work, but it would be Dobbins’ show until the game got out of hand. A more likely scenario is that Ingram is able to play (he logged a full practice on Friday), but even in that scenario, I’d expect Dobbins to make a push for a top-10 week. He’s averaged 67 rushing yards per game during his current 5-game touchdown streak, and he should have no trouble reaching 70+ and a score again in this one. He should be very safe in DFS cash games, even if he lacks the ceiling you typically look for in tournaments. If Edwards and Ingram both sit, that ceiling is there.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 17: @Phi., DK SNF showdown price: $9,000): Gibson returned from his turf toe injury last week and looked sharp, tallying 61 rushing yards on just 10 carries. This week he faces an Eagles team that will be without several defensive starters, including Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Duke Riley, who all start in the front 7. With that same trio sidelined last week (Cox played 7 snaps while the other 2 were out), Zeke Elliott looked like his old self and ran for 105 yards. It was just Elliott’s second 100-yard day of the year. Washington can clinch a division title with a win in this game, so they should be going full tilt while the Eagles just try to get through the game. Gibson is likely in line for a big game here and should be a staple in any showdown lineups for Sunday night, and would be a good choice for captain.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 17: @Det, DK main slate price: $7,600): Jefferson should be able to put on one final show for the season on Sunday. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook, so they may throw a little more than usual, and the Lions have looked like they’ve thrown in the towel on the season in recent weeks. Detroit ranks dead last in pass-defense, DVOA, and has allowed the most WR points per game. In the past 3 weeks, the Lions have allowed at least one 100-yard wide receiver each week and given up 8 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts in that span. Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen should both be great plays for DFS in week 17.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $11,400): Hurts has taken the starting job in Philly and run with it in the last few weeks. Turnovers hurt him in a bad loss to the Cowboys a week ago, but in his 3 starts he’s finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16. This week he faces a Washington defense that has been one of the stingiest against the pass in the league and needs this win to clinch the division title. In their last 13 games, Washington has allowed just 4 QBs to throw for more than 220 yards, so Hurts will be hard-pressed to put up a 3rd-straight 300-yard passing game, but he should still have a stable rushing floor. The rookie has run for 60+ yards in all 3 of his starts, and Washington has allowed 4 different QBs to run for 50+ this season. With Miles Sanders sidelined, even more of the rushing load should fall on Hurts. He’s a bit pricey for the showdown slate Sunday night but should be treated as a low-end QB1 for any teams that have championships this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $6,300): The Lions appeared to have thrown in the towel on the 2020 season in recent weeks, but if that were truly the case Matt Stafford wouldn’t be playing through injury and starting Sunday. This game still has the potential to get out of hand with how bad the Detroit defense has been, but on paper, it should be a great matchup for Swift. Minnesota ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and allows the 6th-most RB points per game. Swift appears to have his injury issues behind him after he played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks and saw a total of 33 touches in those games. I’d expect similar usage in this one, and against this defense, that means a top-10 RB week could be in the offing. There is risk in betting on a Detroit player since it remains to be seen how motivated the Lions will be to win this game, but if you have him in a championship game he should probably be in your lineup.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $6,100): Akers was held out of practice for much of the week with a sprained ankle and is questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Cardinals, but I’d expect him to be heavily involved if he’s able to play. The Rams will be without Jared Goff and will likely lean on the run more than usual, and Akers has shown himself in recent weeks to be the best option in this backfield. The Cardinals allow the 11th-most RB points per game, and just last week were shredded by Jeff Wilson, Jr. to the tune of 183 rushing yards. Akers himself tallied 94 scrimmage yards and a score in the first meeting with Arizona. Something in that same ballpark would be a successful day for Akers in this one, but if he’s close to 100% he may be able to do even more. Keep a close eye on the injury updates here.
RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO, DK main slate price: $4,000): Smith has been seeing extended playing time in recent weeks, averaging 36 scrimmage yards on 6 touches per game in the last 3 weeks, and Mike Davis is unlikely to play this week. The matchup isn’t a good one, with New Orleans allowing the fewest RB points per game, but in the last 3 weeks, they’ve let 4 different backs top 60 rushing yards and given up 5 running back scores in that span. Smith isn’t in the same class as the backs who have been running well against the Saints (CEH, Dalvin, Lev Bell, and Miles Sanders), but he’ll have plenty of opportunity with the Panthers’ backfield shorthanded. Smith should see 15+ touches, and his role as the default workhorse back isn’t built into his DFS price tag. He should return more than his cost in cash games and is a reasonable option for limited slate tournaments. He is also probably on the waiver wire if you have a championship game and need to replace a sidelined starter like Miles Sanders or Dalvin Cook. With the Saints missing all of their running backs, the Panthers may hang around in this game for a while and keep the ball going to Smith.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $4,600): Moss is an interesting case for this week. The Bills don’t have a reason to aggressively try to win this game. I’d expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to be done after the first series or two of the day, and several other key players may play limited snaps as well. While that could mean limited snaps for Moss and Devin Singletary, I’m not sure how comfortable the Bills will be giving all of the backfield work to 32-year-old Taiwan Jones, and with Allen off the field the quarterback won’t be vulturing goal-line carries from Moss. The Dolphins rank just 23rd in run defense DVOA, so there is some upside for Moss if he does play close to his normal share of the snaps, but the risk of a shortened day for him is real.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. LV, DK main slate price: $4,200): Jeudy has caught a lot of flack from the fantasy world and Broncos’ fans after dropping 6 passes in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The thing that I take away from that game is that he was targeted 15 times. Targets are earned, and Jeudy had to be getting open a lot to see that many passes in his direction. We’ve consistently seen the Steelers go back to Diontae Johnson despite drops because he’s consistently able to get separation. This week Jeudy faces a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA. The corner he should match up with most often is rookie Damon Arnette, who has allowed an 80% completion percentage and nearly 10 yards per target into his coverage. I expect the Raiders offense to do enough to keep Denver throwing, and for Jeudy to be eager to make last week a distant memory. The rookie has some serious upside in this matchup that I expect him to make good on. It would take some balls to play him after his dropsies last week, but I think those that do so will be rewarded.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 17: @NYG, DK main slate price: $5,200): Dallas is one of the teams that has every reason to play to win in week 17. A victory by the Cowboys and a loss by Washington on Sunday night would give Dallas the division title, so expect them to pull out all the stops. The Dallas offense has been coming together in recent weeks. Their two best yardage games without Dak Prescott at QB were in the last 2 weeks, and Lamb has been more consistent in recent weeks as well. He’s averaged 12.4 PPR points per game in the last 4 weeks, and this week gets a favorable individual matchup against slot corner Darnay Holmes. Amari Cooper will be shadowed by James Bradberry, and that should free up some extra targets for Lamb and Michael Gallup. Lamb went for 8 catches and 124 yards in the first meeting with the G-Men, albeit with Dak at QB. This is a week where Lamb has a solid chance to finish above that 4-40 floor that we’ve seen from him since Prescott went down.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ind., DK main slate price: $4,200): The Jaguars have already ruled out DJ Chark, James Robinson, and Collin Johnson for this week, so Shenault should be heavily featured in a matchup where the team should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. Shenault already leads the team in targets from Mike Glennon with 21 and should be a good bet for 6+ targets again this week. The Colts have been a tougher pass defense, ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 14th-most WR points per game and given up 5 receiver scores in the past 3 weeks. Shenault is the best bet of the Jaguar receivers to find the end zone this week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $3,600): The Bills have already clinched the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC, and it seems likely that they’ll rest their starters for the majority of this game. They haven’t officially announced it, but after clinching the division in week 16 last season the Bills sat most of their starters and played Josh Allen for just 7 snaps in week 17. Davis could serve as the de facto WR1 for much of this game. Even with Matt Barkley at QB for most of the game, it shouldn’t be hard for Davis to outproduce his price tag if the other receivers sit as expected. The Dolphins rank a solid 6th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 16th-most WR points per game and given up over 100 receiving yards to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers in the past 2 weeks. I’d be at least a little surprised if Davis doesn’t lead the Bills in receiving yards this week.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal., DK main slate price: $5,000): Higgins finally posted a big day without Joe Burrow at QB last week, but it came against the pathetic Texans’ secondary. This week’s matchup is much tougher against Baltimore, and Higgins is questionable with a hamstring issue, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering him. If he does play, the volume should be there for him again. Higgins has averaged 7 targets per game since Burrow went down with an injury. The most likely outcome for Higgins this week would be another floor game in the ballpark of 50 yards, but the volume gives him some upside. Baltimore has allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 65+ receiving yards to 4 different receivers in the last 4 weeks.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $5,700): Claypool is a bit of a roll of the dice this week with Mason Rudolph under center and the playing time for the rest of the Steelers’ starters still up in the air. Diontae Johnson is the receiver most likely to sit in this one, so Claypool should still be involved. Cleveland has been vulnerable to opposing receivers, allowing the 10th-most WR points per game, but it remains to be seen if Rudolph will be able to help these receivers take advantage. The Steelers are a 9-point underdog, so they should be throwing. Claypool’s upside is going to come from catching a long ball or getting in the end zone, and for what it’s worth, Rudolph did complete 11 passes of 30+ yards last season in 10 games. I’d probably look elsewhere for most lineups this week, but if you want to try your hand at the showdown slate, Claypool and James Washington are the two Steelers I think are most likely to have a nice game. Washington was a college teammate of Rudolph and is $4,800 cheaper than Claypool in the showdown format.
Upside DFS Sleepers:
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Titans need to win this week to secure the AFC South title, but this one has the chance to get out of hand. The Texans’ defense made the Bengals look unstoppable last weekend to the tune of 540 offensive yards. Derrick Henry should run through this defense like a hot knife through butter, and that could lead to Evans getting some garbage time run in the 2nd half. The last time the Titans had garbage time Evans posted 57 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Lions. The Texans allow the most running back points per game, so any extended playing time for Evans could have a nice upside.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Rams lost Cooper Kupp to the COVID list this week, and Jefferson should be the next man up in the slot for them. They need to win this week against Arizona to make sure they make the playoffs. It seems logical that the Rams would use more 2-tight end sets with Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett, but the game script could force them into more WR-heavy formations. The Rams will be without starting QB Jared Goff, so keeping pace with the Cardinals may be a bit tougher in this one. Jefferson likely gets a lot of practice work with Wolford on the 2nd team and seems a good bet to see at least a handful of targets in this one. Jefferson costs the minimum on DraftKings and faces a middling defense against WRs.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 17: vs. Pit., DK main slate price: $3,500): Before last week’s trip to the COVID list, DPJ had been on quite a roll with 221 receiving yards in the 3 games prior. He’s topped 50 yards in all 4 games where he’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps, and it looks like the Steelers will be resting several of their key players in this game. There is a great opportunity here for Peoples-Jones to get loose for another big play or 2. There is a low floor here since DPJ hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in a game, so he’s a better option in a DFS tournament than in cash games or in any championship matchups.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK main slate price: $3,200): The shorthanded Saints will be without receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith again this week, but will also be without most of their running backs. They aren’t going to win this game simply by pounding the rock with Ty Montgomery, so there should be a bit more passing volume than we saw last week when they leaned on Alvin Kamara for a half-dozen touchdowns. Juwan Johnson had seen a spike in recent playing time with the injuries ahead of him, but while playing 90 offensive snaps over the past 4 weeks he’s managed just 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 targets. Callaway returned from IR last week and immediately played about twice as many snaps as Johnson (42 to 23) and totaled 3-26 on 4 targets. Callaway is the guy who is going to benefit from the increased passing volume, and he costs $200 less than Johnson on the main slate this week. There isn’t a huge ceiling for Callaway, but if the Saints substitute the short passing game for the run game, there could be 6+ targets there for Marquez this week.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $3,000): Willie Snead is questionable for the Ravens in what will be a must-win game in Cincy, and Duvernay is the best suited of the other receivers to man the slot. If Snead sits, Duvernay should get some chances to showcase his track-star speed against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most 20+ yard completions on the year. There is some risk here since Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin have played ahead of Duvernay in recent weeks, so I would prefer Devin as more of a dart throw in the showdown slate for this game, where his price tag is just $1,000, rather than a bigger tournament.
WR Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $1,600): Watkins has shown a penchant for coming up with splash plays in his limited snaps with Jalen Hurts at QB. He took a screen pass for a 32-yard score against the Cardinals and hauled in a 43-yard grab a week ago in Dallas. Watkins is questionable for this week, but several pass catchers have already been ruled out for week 17 – Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson and Richard Rodgers. If Watkins plays, there could be some increased opportunity for him, and his price tag is more than reasonable for the showdown slate Sunday night. It would only take one splash TD play to make him worth that cost.
Rookies to Sit (Or avoid in DFS):
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $5,100): Tua has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and been pulled in each of his last two games away from Miami. He likely won’t get pulled again this week as coach Brian Flores won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a fallback option in this game. The bearded backup was placed on the COVID list this week. I’d still expect the Dolphins to lean on the run game unless the game script forces their hand. They’ll need to win this one to ensure they make the playoffs, and Buffalo has been locked in as a pass defense, allowing fewer than 360 total passing yards in the last 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Tua in this one.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $4,400): With the return of Myles Gaskin last week, Ahmed handled just 6 carries and saw 1 target against the Raiders. With a playoff berth on the line this week, it should be the Gaskin show again unless the game gets out of hand. If Buffalo rests their starters and Miami pulls away, it could be a combination of Ahmed and Breida carrying the ball down the stretch. I don’t see a huge ceiling for Ahmed unless Gaskin gets hurt early.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 17: @Chi., DK main slate price: $4,900): Don’t fall in love with the performance you saw last week. Green Bay gets Jamaal Williams back this week, which will send Dillon back to the bench, and they face a much less generous run defense. The Bears rank 4th in run defense DVOA.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $4,400): A Bucs win this week ensures that they’ll face the NFC East’s sub-.500 champ in their first playoff game, so they’ll treat this like a game they want to win. Last week was the first time all year that Vaughn played more than 25% of the offensive snaps, and it came in a lopsided blowout with Ronald Jones out. Jones returns this week, so even a blowout might not result in a ton of snaps for Vaughn in week 17.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Steelers will be resting starters since they’re locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC, so James Conner may not play this week. In the last 3 games that Conner sat this season, it was Benny Snell who carried the load. McFarland played a total of just 32 offensive snaps in those games, seeing 8 carries and 3 targets. I’d expect more of the same here if Conner sits.
RB Tony Jones, Jr., NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK showdown price: $200): Jones isn’t even available for the main slate on DraftKings, but he is expected to be called up from the practice squad Sunday with all of the New Orleans running backs sidelined on the COVID list. Don’t fall for his $200 price tag if you’re playing the showdown slate for this game. I’d expect the short-yardage back to be Taysom Hill, and for Ty Montgomery to do his best to fill in for Alvin Kamara. The Saints are still in play for the NFC’s playoff bye, so they won’t just phone this game in. I’d be surprised if Jones gets more than a few carries in this one.
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $200): I know, $200 is basically free on the showdown slate, and Huntley should see at least some opportunity with Miles Sanders sidelined, but Huntley hasn’t been active in weeks. He still has Boston Scott, Corey Clement, and Jordan Howard ahead of him on the depth chart. It would be a positive week for Huntley if he just gets on the field for a few touches.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $6,200): Reagor has essentially served as the Eagles’ WR1 in terms of targets, but Quez Watkins’ 57 yards last week is more than Reagor has put up in any game this season. Reagor costs $4,600 more than Watkins on the showdown slate. Washington allows the 4th-fewest WR points per game. Don’t pay up for Reagor expecting a big game this week, but I do think he has the talent to take a step forward next season.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $4,100): Mooney has found the end zone in two of the last 3 games, but if you roll him out there in a championship game or DFS lineups this week you’re counting on him finding the end zone again. Green Bay has allowed just 1 WR touchdown in their last 4 games combined. Volume has been there for Mooney in several games this year (5 games with 7+ targets), but he’s averaged just 4 catches for 41 yards in those games. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just twice all season.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $4,100): Pittman gets a plus matchup against a miserable Jaguars defense this week, but he’s fallen behind Zach Pascal and now sits at 3rd in the target pecking order for the Colts. Indy is favored by 14 points this week, so they likely won’t throw much in the second half. That limited volume makes Pittman a bad bet as a dart throw.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 17: @Den., DK main slate price: $3,600): This may look like a good spot for Ruggs to make a couple of splash plays in a matchup against a team that is missing all of its top-3 cornerbacks, but it’s not a wager I’d make. The Broncos have been this shorthanded at CB for 3 games now, and have allowed just 2 completions for 30+ yards in those games, and the corner that Ruggs will match up with most (De’Vante Bausby) runs a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. Ruggs isn’t going to beat you with volume -he has no more than 3 receptions in any game this year – and it doesn’t look like a great bet that he gets a big play this week.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE, DK main slate price: $3,000): Mims has played 4 games this year with Sam Darnold at QB and Jamison Crowder on the field. In those games, he’s totaled 17 targets, 9 catches, and 125 yards. The Pats allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. This doesn’t strike me as a good opportunity to bet on a big game from the rookie.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $3,500): The Dolphins should be getting healthier this week, as DeVante Parker could return from a hamstring injury, and Bowden has averaged fewer than 50 scrimmage yards per game in the last 4 weeks despite seeing significant usage in that span (nearly 6 targets and 1 rush attempt per game).
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Lions still will be missing Kenny Golladay yet again this weekend, but that hasn’t resulted in Cephus having an expanded role this year. Quintez hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game this year that wasn’t against the Bears. There’s also the risk that Detroit pulls Matt Stafford if he takes a few hits in this one. There is an upside for next season with Golladay and Marvin Jones, Jr. each hitting free agency this offseason, but there isn’t much to get excited about here for week 17.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $3,200): The Bucs need to win this game to make sure they don’t face off with the Saints, Packers or Seahawks next weekend, and that means very limited snaps for Johnson, as usual, barring a blowout win.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $3,000): Kmet has been a popular name in recent weeks as he’s been playing the vast majority of the Bears’ offensive snaps and been targeted 6+ times in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also been handily out-produced by teammate Jimmy Graham in that span and faces a defense this week that allows the 4th-fewest TE points per game. He’s also still questionable to even play in this one. In his best receiving game of the year so far Kmet finished with just 45 yards. I don’t have confidence that he bests that in week 17.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully, you’ve gotten some use out of this column throughout the year in figuring out what to do with the rookies on your fantasy teams. Make sure to keep an eye out for any updates throughout the week and up to kickoff. There could be some surprise benchings/inactive players for teams with nothing to play for this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I’ll be back next season to help you navigate your way through a new crop of rookies. I look forward to filling you all in on Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Fields each week. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16: @NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.
Rookies to Sit:
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.
RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest running back receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16: @Det.): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16: @GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.
WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.
WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, your team is still alive and kicking for the fantasy semifinals. We’re starting to see some impressive rookies like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers have breakout games and keep fantasy seasons alive. Hopefully, your teams have been benefitting from those performances. The lineup choices this week are crucial, so make sure you follow the health updates throughout the week. There are a lot of players at the same positions listed under ‘Rookies to Start’ and ‘Borderline Rookies’ this week, so keep in mind the order they’re listed in and make the best choice based on who else is on your team. A ‘Rookie to Start’ may not be an automatic start for you. Let’s dive into week 15…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Herbert had a someone muted performance last week with 243 passing yards and 2 scores, but it was a vast improvement over what he did against New England the week before. He gets to square off with the Raiders this week and should have a great chance to at least match what he did last week against a Vegas defense that allows the 10th-most QB points per game. The Raiders have given up exactly two passing scores in each of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 6, and Herbert threw for 326 yards and a pair of scores in the first meeting. The Raiders haven’t been giving up big blowup games to QBs since they are also abysmal against the run, so Herbert should be in line for a low-end QB1 performance. I wouldn’t be starting him over any of the top-tier options at the position (Mahomes, Rodgers, Russ, Josh Allen, Lamar, Kyler), but if you don’t have any of those top guys Herbert should be a solid QB play this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): The Colts are finally starting to unleash Taylor the way they should, and he is making defenses pay. He’s posted back-to-back top-3 weeks, and one of them came against this week’s opponent, the Texans. In that game, the Colts didn’t really start to feed Taylor the ball until the 4th quarter. I expect it to start earlier this week after what he showed against the Raiders. The Texans are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 2nd-most running back fantasy points per game. They’ve allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards, the 2nd-highest yards per rush average, and are tied for the 4th-most rushing touchdowns allowed. If Taylor gets fed the ball as he should, there’s no reason he can’t have a 3rd straight high RB1 performance.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Watching what Akers has done in the last few weeks has to have people questioning why he was playing behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown for so long. After running for 156 yards and 2 TDs combined in weeks 12 & 13, Akers put on a clinic last week against New England. He didn’t find the end zone but totaled nearly 200 yards from scrimmage. We’ve seen what kind of fantasy upside a running back in a Sean McVay offense can have if they commit to him as the lead back thanks to Todd Gurley. Gurley was the number 1 running back in fantasy in 2017 & 2018. I’m not saying I think Akers will be at that level, but he can be a top-10 running back going forward if he’s the true lead guy. This week’s matchup looks great on paper against the 0-13 Jets. The Rams are favored by a ridiculous 17 points and should be able to lean on the ground game a lot, but the Jets defense is much more vulnerable to the aerial attack. New York ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but 8th in that stat against the run. They give up plenty of points to opposing backs (12th-most in the league), but they don’t give up the big blow-up games very often. Only 3 running backs have reached 15 fantasy points against the Jets this year, and only Melvin Gordon scored more than 1 touchdown against them. Because of this, I wouldn’t treat Akers as a chalk play in DFS formats, but volume should get him into the top 10-12 running backs for the week in what is still a plus matchup.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Every week I look at Robinson’s matchup and see something that doesn’t look great for him on paper, and every week he comes through with a solid fantasy day. Last week he actually had a down game, and still finished with 12 fantasy points. This week is no different. Baltimore is favored by two touchdowns and ranks 9th in run defense DVOA, so the game script could get away from the Jaguars again, but you have to count on Robinson to keep doing what he’s done all year. The Ravens have given up at least 60 rushing yards and 10 fantasy points to the opposing RB1 in each of their last 5 games, and I see no reason why Robinson won’t get to those marks as well. The return of Gardner Minshew at QB could provide a spark for the Jaguars offense, and he actually targets running backs in the passing game at a slightly higher clip than Mike Glennon this year (20.5% to 18%) albeit in a small sample size. Robinson should be a safe RB play once again this week despite the tough matchup.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Swift returned from his concussion/illness last weekend and went right back to his usual role as lead back, playing 53% of the snaps and scoring a short rushing TD. He seems to be recovered, and that’s good for your fantasy lineups this week. He gets to face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the 7th-most RB points per game. Game script could lean pass-heavy with Tennessee favored by double-digits, but the Titans have allowed the 10th-most RB receiving yards, the 2nd-most RB receiving TDs, and Swift may have Chase Daniel at QB. In the 6 games Daniel has started or played the majority of, he’s thrown 32.1% of his passes to running backs. Stafford for the season is at about a 20% target share for backs, and that’s only if you count gadget player and return man Jamal Agnew as a running back. Swift is the only back on this team likely to put up substantial receiving production, so he should still be a solid RB2 in a game that looks like it could get out of hand in Tennessee’s favor.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): If I had any faith that Dobbins would see a handful of targets this week he’d be even higher on this list. Dobbins seems to have taken a firm grip on the lead back job in this committee as Mark Ingram has been mostly phased out in recent weeks. Dobbins has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in 2 of the last 3 games he’s played. He’s also had 10+ carries in 5 of his last 6 games and found the end zone in each of his last 3. The Jaguars have allowed each of the last 3 lead backs they faced to reach 120+ rushing yards and 20+ fantasy points. Granted, those were 3 elite backs – Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry, but there have been just 2 games all year where the opposing lead back against Jacksonville failed to reach 11+ fantasy points. One of those games was against the Chargers without Austin Ekeler. If Dobbins is treated as the lead back early on in this one, I expect him to have a huge rushing day, and to possibly post a top-10 fantasy day. His lack of receiving usage is why I rank him below the other backs above this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 15: @Dal.): Aiyuk has been on a tear in recent weeks, with 100 receiving yards or a TD in 6 straight games, and this week he gets to face off with a Dallas defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game. Deebo Samuel is likely done for the season after injuring his hamstring on his first touch of the game last week, and in the 4 games he’s played without Samuel (counting last week) Aiyuk has totaled 48 targets and put up fantasy point totals of 18.6, 19.1, 16.2, and 16.9. Three of those four games came against defenses currently in the top-12 at limiting WR fantasy points. Again, Dallas is in the bottom five. George Kittle could return this week, and that would put a bit of a dent into Aiyuk’s ceiling, but it’s looking more likely that he returns next week. The rookie should be in line for 10+ targets and a borderline WR1 day.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): Jefferson gets a tough on-paper matchup this week after being limited to just 4-39 on 8 targets by the Bucs a week ago. Chicago allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but that’s not a death knell for Jefferson this week. In their last 5 games, the Bears have allowed 3 different receivers to reach 100 yards against them. The two teams that didn’t get a receiver to 100 against them in that span were Green Bay, who routed the Bears in the first half and didn’t need to throw, and the Texans who were missing all of their top-3 wide receivers last week. Jefferson put up 8 catches for 135 yards on 10 targets in his first meeting with the Bears and should be good for another solid day in this one. He’s still seen 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and that volume should be there again.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): Hurts made quite the impression in his first career start, knocking off a solid New Orleans team and making the offense look competent in a way Carson Wentz hasn’t in weeks. He didn’t put up gaudy passing numbers, with just 167 yards and a touchdown, but his 106-yard rushing day made him the QB10 for the week. That rushing upside is a huge advantage for Hurts in fantasy, and it should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a respectable QB defense, allowing the 13th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve also allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards on the year. They’re unlikely to let Hurts run for another 100 yards, but if he gets into the 60-70 range he has a great chance to be a high-end QB2 this week, even if the passing numbers are muted again.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 15: @NO): Edwards-Helaire didn’t exactly have a banner day in week 14, finishing as the RB20, but there were plenty of positive signs for the rookie. He was on the field for 74% of the offensive snaps and logged 21 touches, the highest total he’s seen since the team added Le’Veon Bell. This week’s opponent, the Saints, allows the fewest running back points per game, but 4 of the 5 running backs they’ve allowed to run for 60+ yards have been guys that win with speed and agility rather than power - David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, and Aaron Jones. Josh Jacobs is the only power back to hit that mark. If the volume continues for CEH, I like his chances of posting another top-20 day even in a tougher matchup.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Gibson was held out of practice on Thursday dealing with turf toe, so it seems unlikely we see him this week. If he does play, he faces a Seattle defense that ranks 11th in run defense DVOA and has allowed only Wayne Gallman to run for 40+ yards against them since week 7. Gallman did go for over 100, so it’s not impossible for Gibson to have a good day if he suits up. Gibson’s true upside comes from getting into the end zone. He’s scored at least 1 touchdown in 8 of the 11 full games he’s played in, and Seattle has given up 11 RB rushing scores on the year. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but I see Gibson as more of a low-end RB2 or flex play if he plays and is close to 100%.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Ahmed has been practicing in a limited capacity this week and looks like he may be on track to return to the lineup. The Patriots have been struggling to defend the run this year. They rank 28th in run defense DVOA and let Cam Akers run for over 170 yards a week ago. They don’t give up a ton of receiving production, but Ahmed could be in line for a nice day running the ball if he’s able to play. Salvon had 33 combined carries in the last two games he was healthy for with Myles Gaskin sidelined. He should see 15+ touches again if he plays and Gaskin doesn’t get cleared from the COVID list ahead of this game. That kind of volume would put the rookie on the flex/RB2 radar against this defense.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): Moss was benched in week 13 after an early fumble against the 49ers, but the Bills didn’t carry over that punishment to week 14. Moss was right back to his usual role against the Steelers, playing about 60% of the offensive snaps. Against Pittsburgh, that role didn’t translate to many fantasy points, but the matchup this week is a bit more favorable. The Broncos rank 25th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10th-most running back points per game. They are also tied for 4th in most rushing TDs allowed at 17. Moss’s upside comes from his role as the goal line back. Obviously, in this offense, Josh Allen is just as likely if not more likely than any of the running backs to score a short TD, but this week Moss has as good a chance as any to get in the end zone. Buffalo’s offense has been much more pass-happy this year than in years past, and with Denver missing their top 3 CBs again this week that should continue. The run volume might only be there if they get out in front early. I see Moss as mostly a flex option where you’re hoping for 50+ yards and a TD.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Claypool has confusingly seen his snaps limited in recent weeks, giving way to James Washington at times and playing just 69 out of 128 snaps in the last 2 games (54%). Given that those games were the first two losses of the season for Pittsburgh, it would behoove them to get Claypool more involved, and this should be a good week to do that. The Bengals rank just 29th in pass-defense DVOA, and the Steelers have an implied total of 27 points. Claypool’s likely defensive matchup would be 5’10” Darius Phillips. Claypool stands 6’4”, and I like the chances that Big Ben exploits that advantage in the red zone at some point and gets the ball to Claypool in the end zone. This should be a get-right spot for the entire offense that has struggled in recent weeks. Claypool is an upside WR3 for me this week.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Bowden has emerged at just the right time for a Dolphins team that has had limited weapons in recent weeks due to injuries. The team was already down to their 4th-string running back last week and lost DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to injury during the game. Bowden stepped in and filled the void admirably with 7-82 on 9 targets. Gesicki returned to practice Thursday, and Parker has been practicing in a limited capacity as well. It remains to be seen who will be active on Sunday, but Bowden is healthy and should be lining up in the slot again. New England allows the 3rd-most yards per target on throws to the slot receiver, and I like the chances that Bowden sees another high-volume day. He should be in line for a solid WR3 kind of day in PPR formats.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 15: vs. SF): Lamb has been a floor option most weeks with Andy Dalton at QB, but this week is one where he could see a bump in production. Prior to last week, Lamb was averaging 7 targets per game since Dak went down, and I wouldn’t read much into the two targets he saw last week. The Cowboys were in the rare position of having a commanding lead for much of the day and Dalton was limited to just 23 attempts (he’s averaged 42 attempts in the 4 other full games he’s played). The 49ers aren’t going to be a pushover like Cincy was a week ago, so Dallas should be forced to throw a lot more. Lamb gets the most favorable matchup of the Dallas receivers, avoiding Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett in the slot, where he lines up for 85% of his snaps. Instead, he’ll face off mostly with Dontae Johnson, who has allowed a 104 passer rating on throws into his coverage, albeit in limited opportunities. If Dallas wants to stay competitive in this one, they’ll look Lamb’s way often. I like the odds that Lamb tops 60 receiving yards for just the 2nd time since week 6.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jeudy has been a bit of a disappointment in recent weeks on the stat sheet, but he’s still playing most of the snaps and should get a boost if Tre’Davious White follows around Tim Patrick this week. I expect Denver to have to throw quite a bit more than they have in recent weeks, and in the last 3 games where Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Jeudy averaged 10 targets and 77 yards per game. He should be in line for his best game since before the Kendall Hinton bowl this week even though Buffalo allows the 13th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 this week.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Shenault should be a floor PPR option even in a tough matchup this week. The Ravens secondary is stingy, ranking 11th in pass DVOA, and allowing the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but Shenault was targeted 11 times last week and should benefit from the return of Gardner Minshew at QB. Rookie teammate Collin Johnson seems to have fully gone back to the bench, and it looks like Shenault and DJ Chark will see the biggest boost from Minshew’s return. I’d expect Viska to see 8+ targets in a game where Jacksonville should be playing from behind as usual.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Pittman squares off with the Texans for the 2nd time in 3 weeks, and as we learned in that first meeting it’s TY Hilton who has the best chance to cash in on this matchup. The Texans have been cooked by opposing WR1s in all 4 games without Bradley Roby, allowing 110+ receiving yards and a TD to each WR1 they’ve faced in those games. I tricked myself into believing that would be Pittman in the game two weeks ago, only to watch Hilton put up 8-110-1 on 11 targets while the rookie totaled 5-46 on 5 targets. This is still a bad pass defense, so there is upside for more for Pittman, but I’d expect similar results to the last time. The other WR2s to face Houston with Roby out are Darnell Mooney (2-22-1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0-0), and Chris Conley (7-52).
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Pit.): In 3 full games without Joe Burrow. Higgins has finished with exactly 5 catches and a yardage total between 44 and 56 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone in any of those games. This week he faces a Steelers’ defense that ranks 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA and is in the top half of the league at limiting WR points. Higgins did torch this defense for 7-115-1 in his first meeting with them in week 10, but that was with Burrow under center. Counting on any more production from Higgins than what we’ve seen in the last few weeks is asking for trouble.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Kmet has now seen 7 targets in back to back games to go along with a snap share above 80% in that time, but his yardage totals have left something to be desired (39 per game). This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed the 11th-most yards to the position, but just 5 touchdowns to tight ends in 12 games. Kmet’s usage makes him an intriguing streaming TE1 if you’re searching for someone at the position this week. I’d expect him to see a healthy target number again this week and would be a helpful piece of your lineup if he finds the end zone.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Tua had his best fantasy game of the year last week in a loss to Kansas City, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat against a defense that has held 4 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to zero total touchdowns and fewer than 10 fantasy points. The place to beat the Patriots has been on the ground. New England has allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game on the year, and you can’t afford a bad game from a quarterback in the playoffs. Tua is no more than a low-end QB2 this week, even if he is missing Gaskin and Ahmed and has to have a pass-heavy game plan again. His weapons are banged up, and the Patriots under Belichick have always made life miserable on rookie QBs against them. Since 2000, 29 rookie QBs have attempted at least 15 passes against the Patriots in a game. 14 of them threw multiple interceptions, and just 7 threw multiple TD passes. Only 5 threw for 240+ yards. We all saw what this defense did to Justin Herbert. This is not a great spot for Tua.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): James Conner looks like he may not be active this week after being held out of practice Thursday. McFarland played just 25 total snaps in the last two games Conner was inactive for, playing behind both Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels. This game could be a blowout win for the Steelers, but I wouldn’t count on McFarland to get an extended run even if Conner sits and they win in a blowout. The Steelers have played down to their competition on several occasions this year, so there is no guarantee this is a blowout. You can’t rely on McFarland in season-long leagues. He’s no more than a dart throw in a DFS single-game showdown slate.
RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 15: @Atl.): RoJo was added to the COVID list this week, so it seems likely he’ll miss this game, but that’s not a reason to trust Vaughn to play a lot. Leonard Fournette was inactive last week, and Vaughn still just saw 4 snaps and 1 rushing attempt while Shady McCoy played 16 snaps. I’d expect Fournette to be the guy to step into Jones’ early-down role this week, and McCoy to continue as the 3rd-down back. Atlanta allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game, so a limited role against them won’t lead to fantasy-worthy production.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Kelley was a healthy scratch last week with Justin Jackson back from IR. There is no reason for him to be on your roster at this point. Even if Austin Ekeler sits tonight, it’ll be Jackson and Kalen Ballage doing most of the backfield work.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 15: @LAR): Even though Mims is likely to avoid the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, this isn’t a great spot to fire him up in fantasy lineups. The Rams allow the fewest WR points per game, and only Deebo Samuel and Tyler Lockett have topped 60 yards against them in the last 6 games. Mims is a desperation WR4 at best this week. He’d need to get into the end zone to return much value.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): With Jalen Hurts at QB the passing volume is going to be limited. Reagor has just 5 targets in the last two weeks (4 of those in Hurts’ 1st start), and while Arizona isn’t a matchup to run away from (they allow the 14th-most WR points), it also isn’t one to roll the dice on Reagor having a surprise big day. Obviously negative game script could inflate the passing volume with Arizona favored by 6.5, but there are safer options with your season on the line this week than Reagor.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Peoples-Jones has now played more than 50% of the offensive snaps 3 times this season, and in those games he’s put up 56, 92, and 74 yards, but he hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in any of those games. The Giants’ defense hasn’t been very vulnerable to the big plays though. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest completions of 20+ yards for the season, and it seems likely that KhaDarel Hodge will return to the field this week and push DPJ back to a more limited role.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Cephus’s two target trend continued last week. He’s now exactly 2 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and for the year has 14 targets in two games against the Bears, and 13 in the rest of his games combined. Chase Daniel at QB would take away any limited upside that Cephus has this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Bryant may get one more week as the lead tight end if Hooper sits again, but it sounds as though Hooper is on track to play. The Giants allow the 8th-fewest TE points per game and Bryant’s only big game of the year came against Cincinnati, who allows the 3rd-most points to the position. I think you’re best looking for a higher upside option than Bryant even if Hooper sits.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hamler had a huge game against the Panthers last weekend on just 3 targets, turning them into 86 yards and two touchdowns, and while I don’t expect a repeat of that performance this week he does have the most favorable matchup of the Bronco WRs against Taron Johnson in the slot. The Broncos are going to have to throw the ball a lot in this game to keep pace with a Buffalo offense that should shred their depleted secondary. The last 3 times that Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Hamler totaled 26 targets and 160 receiving yards on 14 receptions. He’s got some upside for deep leagues as a flex option.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): John Brown was designated to return from IR this week, but if he sits another week Davis has a good opportunity for another productive day. Davis has 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 5 of the 6 games that John Brown has either missed or played less than half of the snaps due to injury, and the Broncos are without their top 3 cornerbacks and have another two that got banged up last week. He should have a great opportunity at another 50+ yard day if Brown sits again. Keep an eye on the injury report here.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): The Ravens added receivers Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and James Proche to their COVID list this week, and that leaves them with just Duvernay, Willie Snead, and Dez Bryant healthy on the roster for this week. They’re likely to add Chris Moore from the practice squad and use more 2-tight end and 2-running back sets to help cover up how shorthanded they are at receiver. Duvernay should still see an increased role this week from what we’re used to. He brings a speed element that Bryant and Snead don’t, and is the most likely candidate to replace what Brown does in this offense. The Jaguars allow the 8th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 8th-most completions of 20+ yards for the season. This could be a great spot for Baltimore to get their deep passing game connecting again, and Duvernay would be the likeliest beneficiary. He’s a great dart throw in DFS tournaments this week.
WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): Henry Ruggs is going to be inactive this week on the COVID list, and that will get Edwards back into a starting role for the first time in weeks. I expect the Chargers standout corner Casey Heyward, Jr. to matchup mostly with Nelson Agholor, which leaves Edwards with Michael Davis. It’s not a high upside spot with the Chargers allowing the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but Edwards costs just $400 for the TNF showdown slate on DraftKings. He should see at least a handful of targets as he has the easiest individual matchup of the Vegas receivers.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates tonight and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 2 Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point *because* of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.
RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.
WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.
WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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