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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.

 

What it means:

We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.

The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.

 

What it means:

Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.

A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.

 

FACT:

Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).

 

What it means:

If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.

 

What it means:

The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.

 

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.

Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.

 

What it means:

Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.

Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2^nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.

 

What it Means:

D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17^th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.

 

FACT:

The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.

The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.

 

What it means:

Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3^rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

 

What it means:

In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re about to get into the full swing of the preseason, which means your fantasy draft is probably fast approaching. Today I continue my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet or running back fact sheet, you can find the QBs here, and the RBs here, but today I’m looking at the tight ends. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie tight end class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

The average TE4 in the past 5 seasons has scored 195.6 PPR points. Only 2 rookie tight ends have ever scored more PPR points than that, most recently Keith Jackson in 1988. Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the TE4 in redraft leagues.

 

What it means:

As you might expect, any rookie tight-end overview might as well just be called the Kyle Pitts article. A lot of these facts are going to focus on Pitts. What this particular stat is telling you is that Pitts will need to post the best rookie TE season of the last 30 years to be worth his ADP. While that’s within his range of outcomes, I’m not sure it’s a bet that I’m willing to make. Maybe if I dig into some of the reasons why he’s so highly regarded I can get a bit more clarity…

 

FACT:

In all the years that Arthur Smith was on the offensive coaching staff for the Titans (since 2012), they’ve never ranked higher than 19^th in the league in pass attempts. In his two years as the offensive coordinator, they ranked 31^st and 30^th.

 

What it means:

A big piece of the argument in Kyle Pitts’ favor for 2021 is that he steps in as the number 2 target in one of the highest passing volume offenses in the league, but will they stay a high-volume passing offense? Atlanta has ranked in the top-10 in passing attempts in the league in 10 of the last 12 seasons, and in the top-5 in 6 of the last 9, but Arthur Smith would prefer if the Falcons’ offense is more balanced in 2021 if his coaching history is any indication. The coaches that Smith cut his teeth under in the NFL had run-heavy offenses, and Smith continued that in his two seasons as the offensive coordinator.

The Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, and they have a Vegas win total of just 7 games, so they aren’t going to rank 30^th in pass attempts this season like the Titans did in 2020. They’re still likely to throw substantially less often this season. It’s entirely possible they fall out of the top-10 after ranking 4^th in pass attempts last year. Don’t be surprised if they throw the ball fewer times in 17 games this season than they did in 16 games in 2020.  If you’re penciling in the Falcons for 625+ pass attempts, and 120+ targets for Pitts, you’re probably setting those marks too high.

 

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 7 tight ends selected in the top-10 picks in the NFL draft. Only Junior Miller (156.2 PPR points in 1980) scored 100 or more PPR points as a rookie.

 

What it means:

Pitts’ lofty draft capital is another brick people use in building the case for him, but in the last 41 years, only one tight end drafted in the top 10 finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end as a rookie. None of those players were drafted quite as highly as Pitts (4^th overall), but Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both picked 6^th, Junior Miller was picked 7^th, and TJ Hockenson was picked 8^th and was the first non-QB offensive player drafted in 2019. While I agree with most folks that Pitts is nearly a lock to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021, every single tight end drafted in the last 4 decades with similar draft capital to Pitts has underwhelmed as a rookie.

 

FACT:

Since 1990, there have been 34 tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Only 2 of them (Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen) have more than 3 seasons with 800 or more receiving yards. There have been 8 non-first-round picks with more than three 800-yard seasons in that span.

 

What it means:

This stat looks at Pitts’ draft capital through the dynasty league lens. The true elite producers at tight end have often come from unexpected places. Gronk was drafted in the 2^nd round. Travis Kelce was a third-round pick. Darren Waller was a 6^th-rounder. George Kittle a 5^th, Shannon Sharpe a 7^th, and Antonio Gates an undrafted free agent. The NFL has had a really hard time identifying the true difference-makers at the position for a long time. Pitts is already going as the 25^th overall pick in dynasty start-up leagues. At that price point, you basically need him to have a career like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates or Travis Kelce where he is a perennial top-3 fantasy tight-end to be worth what you’re paying. If his career looks more like Greg Olsen’s or Vernon Davis’, you’re going to regret ponying up for him.

 

FACT:

According to PlayerProfiler, Noah Fant had a higher college dominator rating, an earlier breakout age, and a higher SPARQ-x score than Kyle Pitts

Vernon Davis was better than Pitts in all those areas except breakout age, but Davis also ran a faster 40-yard dash than Pitts.

 

What it means:

Before Pitts landed in Atlanta as the 4^th overall draft pick, it was his size, athleticism, and college production that had people calling him the greatest tight end prospect of all-time, but there’s a case to be made that a player drafted just two years ago was a better athlete and was more productive in college than Pitts…and Vernon Davis in 2006 is probably the most athletic tight end prospect of all-time.

In fairness to Pitts, his overall combination of draft capital, landing spot, athleticism, and college production hasn’t been duplicated in the league’s history. He truly is among the best tight-end prospects to ever come into the league, if he’s not *the* best. Barring injury he’s a virtual lock to finish as a top-10 tight end this season. Just know that if you draft Pitts at his ADP in any format, you’re betting on him posting a historic rookie season. For me, the gap between Pitts and some of the tight ends that have come before him and failed to stand out as rookies isn’t wide enough for me to make that bet.

 

FACT:

In the past 5 seasons, the average TE12 has scored 138.5 PPR points.

Since 2000, only 6 rookie tight ends have scored more than that. Four of them were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft.

 

What it means:

There isn’t a lot of reason to consider any rookie tight ends taken in the 3^rd round or later in redraft unless it’s on the waiver wire after they show you something in-season. Since 2000 there have been 182 tight ends drafted in the 3^rd round or later that at least caught one pass as a rookie, and another 141 undrafted free agents who did. Only 2 of those players scored 138.5 or more PPR points as a rookie. Don’t waste a draft pick thinking you can pick the one-in-150 guy who has a solid rookie season. This approach doesn’t apply to dynasty though. Plenty of quality tight ends have come from after the first two rounds – Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, George Kittle, Antonio Gates, etc. They just didn’t produce as rookies.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 55 tight ends drafted after the 2^nd round of the NFL draft that were 24 years old or older as a rookie (according to Pro-Football-Reference). Three of those 55 tight ends caught for more than 350 receiving yards as a rookie. All three of them – George Kittle, Owen Daniels, and Jimmy Graham - went on to post multiple top-10 fantasy seasons. None of the other 52 posted multiple TE1 seasons.

 

What it means:

We’re talking about Jacob Harris here. Harris is one of the more intriguing day-three tight-end picks in this year’s draft. He’s a converted wide receiver, so he has the receiving skills that fantasy players look for, and he landed in a good situation with a quality QB and a creative coach who has said glowing things about him since the selection…but at 24, Harris is old for a rookie. Like most rookie tight ends, I don’t expect him to be useful in redraft leagues, but he’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues to see how he performs this year. A tight end with first or second-round draft capital, even an older one, is going to get opportunities at some point. As a 3^rd-rounder or later though, those older tight ends need to show something in year one or they probably won’t get much of a shot in later seasons. Dennis Pitta and Brandon Myers are the only TEs since 2000 that fit this category to post even one TE1 season after failing to hit 350 yards as a rookie. If Harris gets to 350+ yards as a rookie, you should be looking to buy or hold into year two. If he fails to get there, you should probably be looking to sell at any moment where an offseason narrative causes his value to spike.

 

FACT:

Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers have drafted 8 tight ends (including Pat Freiermuth this season). Only Matt Spaeth played at least 30% of the offensive snaps as a rookie (He played 40%).

 

What it means:

Pat Freiermuth probably isn’t going to be on the field as much as you’d like him to be this season. He does have the highest draft capital of any tight end drafted in the Tomlin era, but I’d expect his rookie usage to be similar to Spaeth, who was a third-round pick in 2007. Eric Ebron returns after being targeted 91 times in 2020, and while he can make frustrating blunders at times, he’s also finished as a top-15 fantasy tight end in 5 of the last 6 years. If Ebron stays healthy, he’s going to be the team’s TE1 and Freiermuth won’t be much more than a TD dart throw for most of his rookie season. 2021 is the last season of Ebron’s contract, so the path is clear for the rookie from Penn State to be the lead tight end for the Steelers in 2022. You should be looking to trade for him in-season in dynasty leagues if your league-mate who has him gets frustrated with his lack of rookie production.

That’s all I’ve got for the tight end class. Hopefully, it helps give you some clarity on these guys as you head into your drafts.  I’ll be back next week with a look at the wide receivers, but feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if there’s anything written above you want to yell at me about. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Football season is fast approaching – we’ve gotten our first taste of preseason action, and while the games haven’t exactly been barnburners it was still nice to see actual football again. Today I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet, you can find that here, but today I’m going to take a look at the running back class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie running back class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

Since Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007, their lead running backs have averaged 275.6 touches per year.

In the last 10 years, the 14 running backs drafted in the 1^st round of the NFL draft have handled an average of 240 touches in their rookie year.

 

What it means:

 Najee Harris should be in line for a huge role as a rookie. 10 of those 14 first-round picks handled at least 200 touches in their rookie season (and Christian McCaffrey was at 197), and Harris landed with one of the teams that aren’t afraid to use a workhorse back. Only 5 teams have given more touches per year to their lead back over Tomlin’s tenure than the Steelers. All camp reports so far have confirmed that Najee is ticketed for a big role and his 43 catches as a senior makes it easy to envision him being very involved in the passing game. Harris has the upside this year to finish as a top-8 back and should be THE guy in the Pittsburgh backfield for the foreseeable future.

 

FACT:

From 2017-2020 there were 5 running backs drafted in the 2^nd round of the NFL draft that had a teammate who was both, a former 1,000-yard rusher, and was 28 years old or younger. 4 of those 5 handled 14+ touches per game as a rookie (AJ Dillon is the only one who didn’t), and three of them finished as the RB16 or better in points per game (half-PPR) as a rookie.

Nick Chubb narrowly missed the cutoff for this list when he was drafted in 2018. Carlos Hyde was 27 years old at the time and his career-high in rushing yards at that point was 988 yards. Chubb averaged 13.25 touches per game and finished as the RB16 in total points as a rookie.

 

What it means:

You might’ve guessed that the only running back in the 2021 class this applies to is Javonte Williams. Williams is being drafted as the RB24, while teammate Melvin Gordon is being drafted as the RB28. I don’t believe that Gordon is washed up, and I don’t think he’s going to just be pushed aside for Javonte, but those ADPs are too close together. From 2001-2010, there were 30 running backs drafted in the first round. From 2011-2020, that number was just 11. A second-round running back today is the equivalent of a mid-to-late first-round running back a decade ago, and a player with that kind of draft capital is going to see the field a lot.

Williams posted 1,445 scrimmage yards and 22 TDs in just 11 games while splitting the RB work pretty much right down the middle with Michael Carter last season at North Carolina, and his physical running style should play well in Denver. Williams doesn’t profile as a prolific pass-catcher, so he’ll be most valuable in non-PPR leagues, but don’t be afraid to reach above his ADP for him in any format. You may have to wait a few weeks for Williams to be fully unleashed like people had to with Nick Chubb in 2018, but he’s going to be a solid RB2 and maybe more once he gets the starter’s share of the work.

 

FACT:

In his time as a college coach, Urban Meyer had 4 different seasons where a wide receiver or tight end logged 70+ rushing attempts.

 

What it means:

There’s a reason the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round of the NFL Draft despite having an established starting running back in James Robinson. Urban has a propensity to use his most dynamic players in a hybrid running back and wide receiver role if they can handle it. He showed hints of it at Utah when his leading receiver Paris Warren totaled 48 rushing attempts in his two seasons there, and in later years went all-in on that role with Percy Harvin (twice), Trey Burton, and Curtis Samuel. Etienne appears to be ticketed for that type of role with the Jaguars.

This is a great thing for Etienne’s outlook as a rookie, especially in PPR formats. James Robinson figures to still be the leading rusher, but Etienne should be heavily involved in the passing game. I already mentioned above that 1^st-round running backs have averaged 240 touches as rookies over the last decade. I don’t think Etienne will approach that number, but I’d view him as a rich man’s Nyheim Hines (or Duke Johnson from a few years ago). He should probably be drafted as a borderline RB2 in full PPR leagues, and about 6-8 spots lower in non-PPR formats.

 

FACT:

Kyle Shanahan has been an offensive coordinator or head coach for 13 seasons. In 7 of them, his lead back logged 200 or fewer touches. In 6 of them, his lead back logged more than 280 touches. None of his lead backs finished between those two numbers.

 

What it means:

Shanahan typically either has a clear-cut number one back or a full-blown committee backfield. There hasn’t been any in-between for him. For the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, it’s been the committee, and this year looks to be more of the same with a crowded backfield group that includes Raheem Mostert, Wayne Gallman, and rookies Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell. That doesn’t even include Jeffery Wilson Jr., who should return from injury somewhere in the back half of the season. Sermon is someone who has been identified as a sneaky later-round pick that has starter upside, but I don’t expect his usage to be consistent enough for that to come to fruition.

The 49ers have had an efficient run game under Shanahan, but I expect a carousel of running backs to be involved, with Mostert and Sermon handling the biggest share of the load. They’ll both have their weeks where they produce, but you’ll be hard-pressed to guess which one it’ll be unless there are injuries involved. I wouldn’t reach for Sermon expecting a starter’s workload, but I wouldn’t avoid him at his current ADP either (RB37).

 

FACT:

Since 1990, only 7 undrafted running backs have run for 800 yards as a rookie.

 

What it means:

After the success of James Robinson last season, I’ve seen a few fantasy articles asking – who’s next? Who is the next James Robinson? The answer is probably no one. Aside from Robinson last year, and Phillip Lindsay in 2018, no undrafted rookie has finished as an RB1 since Dominic Rhodes in 2001. There has been some camp hype for Javian Hawkins in Atlanta and to a lesser extent Jaret Patterson in Washington. Patterson is buried on the depth chart and should be avoided in all but the deepest of leagues. Hawkins is the one UDFA who may be worth a dart throw in more standard leagues, but it’s a longshot that he amounts to much this year. There’s no guarantee he beats out Qadree Ollison for the RB2 role. If you take Hawkins in a dynasty league and he does hit as a rookie, you should look to flip him when you’re able. In the last 30 years, only Ryan Grant and Chris Ivory have posted three 800-yard rushing seasons as a UDFA, and no one has posted a 4^th.

 

FACT:

In the last 5 seasons, the average RB24 has scored 167.4 PPR points. Since 2000, only 5 running backs out of 287 that were drafted in the 4^th round or later topped that point total as a rookie. 4 of them topped 225 PPR points.

 

What it means:

Drafting a day 3 running back and hoping for anything more than RB3 production is a losing proposition. One silver lining here is that the guys who have succeeded as rookies have hit big, and they’ve had one thing in common that can help identify them. Aside from Mike Anderson (who had injuries to both Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary in front of him) all the running backs who finished with more than 167 PPR points as rookies landed in wide-open backfields that didn’t have prior fantasy success. The four running backs were Domanick Williams, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, and Zac Stacy, and not one of them entered their rookie season with a single teammate that had previously finished as even a top-40 fantasy back.

The problem is there aren’t any day 3 backs this year that fit that criteria. The closest to it would be Jake Funk – Darrell Henderson finished as the PPR RB36 last year – but I wouldn’t count on Funk to unseat Henderson. You shouldn’t be jumping ahead of ADP to take Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, or Chuba Hubbard unless an injury (CMC or Miles Sanders) or cut (Tevin Coleman) happens unexpectedly.

 

FACT:

During Bill Belichick’s tenure as head coach (2000-2020) the Patriots drafted 13 running backs in the NFL Draft. Those players have combined for just 3 seasons as the PPR RB24 or better.

 

What it means:

The Patriots have been wildly unsuccessful at drafting running backs during the Belichick era. James White has been easily the most successful back they’ve drafted in that time, with one top-10 season and two top-20 seasons in his career. It doesn’t instill much confidence in the long-term outlook for Rhamondre Stevenson. His skill set has been compared to LeGarrette Blount, which is exciting to consider when you remember that Blount scored 18 touchdowns in a season with New England, but the Patriots have a long track record of relying on a committee backfield that makes it hard for anyone to stand out in fantasy without a crooked touchdown total or a crooked reception total. In dynasty leagues, you’d probably be best served by avoiding Stevenson. If you’ve already drafted Stevenson you should look to trade him on the strength of his two-touchdown preseason debut.

That’s all I’ve got for the running back class for now. Hopefully, it helps give you a little clarity on how you should be treating them in your fantasy drafts. I’ll be back with a look at the rookie tight ends and wide receivers soon, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just a few weeks out from NFL training camp, so that means it’s time once again to turn your attention back to fantasy football (if you’re one of those crazy people that stops thinking about it during the offseason). Today is part one of my 4-part look at the incoming rookie class that I call the “Rookie Fact Sheet”. Today we look at the quarterback class, but I’ll have more coming on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends soon. 

 

The concept is simple. I’m going to give you some facts related to this year’s quarterback class based on things like college production, draft capital, and what those things have historically meant for NFL production. Then, I’ll tell you how I interpret those facts for 2021 and/or beyond. Since many of you in dynasty leagues have already had your rookie drafts, this series will slant more toward redraft leagues, but there will be some fun dynasty tidbits for you as well. Without further ado, let’s dive in…

 

FACT: 

Since 1990, only 3 non-FBS (or Division 1-A as it was previously known) QBs have been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Steve McNair – Four top-5 fantasy seasons, six top-10 seasons, nine top-20 seasons.

Joe Flacco – One top-10 season, three top-15 seasons, eight top-20 seasons.

Carson Wentz – One top-5 season, two top-10 seasons, five seasons as a QB2 or better

 

What It Means:

Don’t be afraid to draft Trey Lance just because he went to North Dakota State. The league has identified 3 QBs in the last 30 years that played at the FCS level as being good enough to be taken in the first round of the draft, and all 3 turned out to be pretty good. Don’t be afraid of the lower level of competition that he faced. 

 

FACT: 

Since 2000, only 7 quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards in a college season were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft – Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Colin Kaepernick, Deshaun Watson, and Vince Young. 

Five of them have posted a top-10 fantasy season, and Hurts could make it six this season. Watson and Newton each have multiple top-5 seasons, and Lamar Jackson has posted a QB1 season. 

 

What It Means:

This is another Trey Lance fact. Lance ran for 1,100 yards in 2019 for North Dakota State, and became the 8th QB on this list when he was drafted. I expect that Jimmy Garoppolo will probably open the season as the starting QB for the 49ers, but I don’t think it will take long to turn the page to Lance even if they’re winning games early on. This is a roster that if healthy is likely to win games even if Garoppolo is holding the offense back. The last time Kyle Shanahan had a dynamic runner at QB like this was in 2012 with Washington and RG3. Griffin ended that season as the QB5 with over 800 rushing yards, and Washington finished the year ranked 4th in the league in points and 5th in total yards. If Shanahan thinks Lance can open up this offense the same way that Griffin did back in ’12, he won’t hesitate to make the switch. Lance is a player I would be targeting in the later rounds of 1 QB leagues, and might even be willing to take as a QB2 in superflex and 2QB formats. Just make sure to get a 3rd QB who will open the year as a starter. I expect Lance to be a fringe QB1 as a rookie in weeks where he has the job. 

 

FACT:

Three quarterbacks other than Justin Fields have posted 40 passing touchdowns and 400 rushing yards in one college season and then been drafted into the NFL.

Deshaun Watson – Three consecutive top-5 fantasy seasons

Kyler Murray – Back-to-back top-10 seasons to start his career, including a top-5 finish in 2020.

Marcus Mariota – Four consecutive QB2 finshes when he was a starter. He didn’t play 16 games in any of those seasons.

 

What It Means: 

Fields’ ceiling at the NFL level is sky high. I hope we’ve moved past the harebrained idea that Fields is going to be a bust just because he went to Ohio State. Fields is just the third ever 1st-round QB drafted out of Ohio State, and one of them was drafted nearly 40 years ago (Art Schlichter), so if you’re using OSU as a knock against him, you’re basically saying you don’t like him because Dwayne Haskins was a bust. Fields has exactly the kind of fantasy upside you should be chasing in leagues, and he landed in an offense that made Alex Smith into the QB4 in 2017, and Mitch Trubisky into the QB11 in points per game in 2018. Like Trey Lance, he might not open the season as the starter, but he’s going to force Matt Nagy’s hand sooner than later. You should be drafting him as a mid-QB2 in redraft leagues. Like with Lance, just make sure you have a fill-in for the early weeks if it’s superflex. 

 

FACT: 

Since 2000, nine rookie QBs have finished as the QB14 or better. All nine had at least one wide receiver on the roster who had posted a top-10 fantasy season (non-PPR) prior to that season. 

Among the 5 first-round QBs this season, only Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have a past top-10 WR as a teammate.

 

What It Means:

If you want to make an upside bet on a rookie QB in redraft leagues this year, Lawrence and Fields are probably the two to target. Neither Trey Lance nor Zach Wilson will have a receiver that has previously posted a top-24 season, and Mac Jones’ top target Nelson Agholor hasn’t finished higher than the WR22. Having a top-10 WR doesn’t automatically mean a QB will be a top finisher (14 of the 32 rookie QBs who started 11+ games and didn’t finish in the top-14 in that span had a previous top-10 WR as a teammate), but since 2000 it has seemingly been a prerequisite to finishing as a QB1 or close to it. If you’re drafting a rookie QB to start for your fantasy team you’re definitely living dangerously, but Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are the best bets to be worthwhile starters. 

 

FACT:

In his last six seasons as head coach at Ohio State, Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks threw for 38 or more touchdowns in 4 of them.

 

What It Means: 

Urban Meyer has a reputation of having a run-heavy offensive system, but that system has resulted in high-volume passing touchdown totals in many of Meyer’s most recent seasons as coach. Trevor Lawrence has been kind of overlooked since training camp started as videos of Trey Lance and Justin Fields throwing dimes have popped up on twitter, but there’s a reason why Lawrence was pretty much the consensus QB1 in this class. He’s got plenty of receiving weapons and is almost assured to be the week 1 starter. Lawrence is the safest of the rookie QBs in re-draft. 

 

FACT:

Mac Jones is the first quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft on a team coached by Bill Belichick.

 

What It Means:

There isn’t too much to read into this one. Belichick stumbled upon Tom Brady as a 6th round pick in 2000 and hasn’t had much need to pick a QB in the first round since. Jimmy Garoppolo, picked back in 2014, was the only second rounder Belichick had ever picked. The one thing I’ll mention here is that there is a narrative that Bill Belichick won’t play rookies early on, but in reality 14 of the 18 first round picks Belichick has made in his time as Patriots’ head coach have played in at least 12 games as rookies. Only N’Keal Harry and Ben Watson appeared in fewer than 8 games as rookies. The QB position is sometimes viewed differently, but again we have no track record of what Bill will do with a first-round rookie signal-caller because he’s never had one. I expect Cam Newton to open the season as starter, but don’t be surprised if Mac is playing sooner than expected. 

 

FACT: 

20 Quarterbacks scored 240+ fantasy points in 2020. 

Since 2000, only 2 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round scored 240+ points or more as a rookie: Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, and both scored more than 60 fantasy points rushing the ball.

 

What It Means:

This one is pretty straightforward. If a quarterback wasn’t drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, he shouldn’t be on your radar for redraft leagues. Only 2 such QBs in the last 2 decades scored enough points as a rookie that they would’ve been a top-20 QB last year. If you’re going to throw a late dart at a guy like this, it should be a guy that has the ability to add points with his legs. Davis Mills seems to have a clear path to win playing time early on as a rookie, but he totaled 86 rushing yards in 14 college games. Kyle Trask, who appears to be in line to back up Tom Brady in Tampa, rushed for 54 yards in 27 college games.

There are 3 QBs drafted after the first round this year that do have running ability. Kellen Mond, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger all posted a 500-yard rushing season in college. Book and Ehlinger both appear to be no higher than 3rd on their team depth charts this season (Ehlinger may be 2nd with the Wentz injury, but it seems inevitable that they add a veteran QB). That leaves just Kellen Mond, who would likely step in as the starter if anything were to happen to Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins has missed just one game in the last 6 seasons, and it was a week 17 game where he was rested because the Vikings were locked into their playoff position. Leave Mond to the waiver wire unless an injury does occur, even in 2-QB leagues.

 

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back soon with the rookie fact sheets on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and eventually my rookie rankings for 2021. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if there’s anything you want to yell at me about written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.