Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Hopefully your teams are well positioned for the final playoff push with just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 felt like a return to fantasy normalcy after a tumultuous and unpredictable few weeks before it. We still saw a couple big upsets (Texans over the Titans, Colts over the Bills), but for the most part the good fantasy players performed well in week 11, and the rookies were no exception. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each got back into the end zone after failing to do so in their previous games. DeVonta Smith topped 60 yards for the 3rd straight game, Elijah Moore topped 10 PPR points for the 5th straight, and the trio of Kadarius Toney, Jaylen Waddle, and Rondale Moore each had a reception bonanza despite minimal yardage. The rookies should have plenty more in store for us in week 12.
I’m going to try something a little different with the Rookie Report this week. Every week I try to touch on every fantasy relevant rookie, but realistically you don’t need several sentences to tell you not to start Larry Rountree III in your lineups. With that in mind, I’m going to have two brief sections on rookies you already know to start, and rookies you already know to sit, with just a brief stat about each. I’m going to split the ‘Borderline Rookies’ section into guys that I’d lean toward starting, and guys that I’d lean toward sitting, and will finish as always with the ‘Deep League Sleepers.’ Hopefully you find this format a little more useful going forward.
The same usual notes still apply – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all mentions of points per game and points allowed are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 12…
Rookies you Already Know you Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Harris’ lightest workload since week 2 still resulted in 17 touches and an RB12 finish last weekend. The Bengals have allowed the 9th-most points per game to opposing backs.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Chase earned his second-lowest target total of the season in the first go-round with the Steelers but finished that game with a 20-point fantasy day. Chase’s overall production has been a little lower in his last 3 games, but he’s still cleared 10 fantasy points in all but one game this season.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Since Tua’s return from injury in week 6, Waddle has garnered 8+ targets in 5 of 6 games, 7+ receptions in 4 of 6, and 60+ yards in 5 of 6. He’s been the PPR WR17 in points per game in that span. The Panthers have allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game this season, so I could see being hesitant to get him in the lineup in non-PPR formats, but don’t let the Panthers scare you off in full PPR (and probably not in half-PPR either).
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Please note that I only suggest starting Jones in superflex formats or leagues deeper than 12 teams, but this is a week where he has more upside than usual. The Colts and Texans are the only teams all year to fall short of 270 passing yards against the Titans this season, and this game should have the least favorable game script the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks after 3 straight easy wins. Jones has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game in the last 3 weeks after throwing 30+ times in 7 of his first 8 games. I expect Jones to get back to 30+ attempts in this game, and assuming he’s his usual, efficient self with those attempts, he’s going to likely finish as a high-end QB2.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Ahead of Denver’s week 11 bye, Javonte played more snaps in a game than teammate Melvin Gordon for just the 2nd time all season. While I doubt it’s a true changing of the guard, it would be wise for Denver to give Williams more playing time down the stretch as they take their last swings at staying in the playoff chase. Williams has consistently looked like the better back. Week 12 brings one of the best matchups of the season for this backfield. The Chargers have allowed the 4th-most running back points per game, and rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Even with a split workload, this is a great opportunity for Javonte to post a top-20 performance. If his edge in playing time over Gordon continues, he could push even higher. You may have more trustworthy options than Williams on your roster, but this is a week where Javonte should have one of his best performances of the season.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Smith has continued to produce at a high level over the last 3 weeks even though the Eagles have transitioned to being a run-heavy football team, but his margin for error is smaller in the current version of the offense. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 21 passes per game in the last 3 weeks, but each week 6 of those attempts have gone in Smith’s direction, and he’s been efficient with those targets. Smith has scored 3 TDs in that span and posted 3 of his 4 best single-game yards per target marks of the season. Can he continue to turn limited volume into fantasy gold this week? I wouldn’t consider it automatic, but the matchup isn’t one to be afraid of. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most WR points per game, and shadow corner James Bradberry hasn’t been the same player in 2021 that he was in 2020. Bradberry is allowing the highest marks he’s allowed on throws into his coverage in passer rating, yards per target, and yards per completion since his rookie year in 2018, and he’s seen his PFF coverage grade drop from 79.9 in 2020 to 64.8 in 2021. He still isn’t a complete pushover, so I wouldn’t pencil in a 5-60-1 line for the rookie just yet, but there aren’t many receivers you’d be considering around Smith’s range that have the kind of ceiling he does.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The return of Lamar Jackson should mean good things for Bateman. The rookie had averaged 70 receiving yards on nearly 5 catches per game in the last 3 games he played with Lamar before putting up a dud with Tyler Huntley under center in week 11. The Browns have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game and have allowed 10+ fantasy points to 10 different receivers in the last 6 games. If Marquise Brown is out again, Bateman will likely tangle mostly with Browns’ top corner Denzel Ward, but I’d expect the bump in volume that would come along with Brown’s absence to offset the tougher individual matchup. Bateman is a reasonable WR3 option in all formats.
WR Kadarius Toney, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Toney finally looked to be fully healthy on Monday night against the Bucs, and the Giants made an aggressive effort to get him the football, targeting him on more than a third of his offensive snaps. All of those targets resulted in just 40 yards on 7 catches, but he gets a matchup favorable to his skill set this week. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 2 zone defense, which should leave a lot of holes for Toney to settle into underneath the deep safeties. Philly also allows the 14th-most yards after catch, which means Toney could have some success piling up extra yards with the ball in his hands. If Toney is used the same way he was last week, I think a dozen or more fantasy points are in the offing for him. The biggest wild card here is what kind of offensive changes Freddie Kitchens will implement in his first week as interim OC. Kitchens’ one full season in charge of Cleveland’s play-calling included more than 8 targets per game for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., so he knows to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Toney is the best playmaker the Giants have at wide receiver.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): It’s getting harder each week to trust Pitts in your lineups with each dud he posts, but I urge you to ride with the rookie for another week. It’s been more than 4 weeks since the last time Pitts scored more than 10 PPR points, but I’m confident he’s going to get there this week. The Jaguars have allowed just the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but that number is worse than it looks. They’ve only faced 4 tight ends all season that rank in the top-20 in PPR points per game, and all 4 of them scored at least 13 points against Jacksonville. I fully expect Pitts to make it 5 out of 5.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Freiermuth played his lowest snap share since week 5 on Sunday night, but he still saw 7 targets come his way and scored a touchdown again. He now has at least 6 targets and 4 catches in 5 straight games and has gotten into the end zone 4 times in that span. The player who was taking his snaps in week 11, Eric Ebron, is expected to need knee surgery and is out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should go back up to a 70%+ snap share going forward. Freiermuth’s week 12 opponents, the Bengals, have given up a tight end touchdown in each of the last 3 games, and Muth himself got in the end zone against them in week 3. Freiermuth looks like a low-end top-10 play this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): A matchup against the defense allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game is enough to get any QB consideration in 2-QB leagues, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t shown enough life to trust Lawrence even in this prime spot. The Jaguars as a team have scored just 36 total points in the last 3 weeks. Trevor has accounted for more than 1 touchdown in just one of his last 9 games and has accounted for zero total touchdowns in the last 3 games combined. His best hope for fantasy production may be his legs. The Falcons have allowed 5 different QBs to run for over 25 yards, and two of them to run for over 60. Lawrence has rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this year. At the end of the day, starting Lawrence as your QB2 means you’re betting on him to post his best game in over a month. An inviting matchup isn’t enough to get me to make that bet.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): You might look at the opponent next to Wilson’s name and be tempted to consider him as a streamer in 2-QB leagues this week, but I’d caution against that. It’s true the Texans allowed 17+ QB points in 7 of their first 8 games and 20+ in 5 of them, but Wilson hasn’t shown that he can take advantage of a matchup like this yet and his floor is very low. Wilson failed to record a touchdown in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played, and you’re playing with fire if you’re counting on a big performance after a 5-week layoff. He’ll be shaking off the rust in this one, and while he may be able to lead his team to a win against the Texans, he’s less likely to lead your fantasy team to the same.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): If Mitchell can play this week, this isn’t a terrible spot to fire him up as a flex play, but it’s not a great one either. The 49ers offense has looked the best it’s looked all season in the last few weeks, and they face a Minnesota defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 11th-most running back points per game. On paper, it looks like a great spot to play a starting running back in a run-first offense. The question is whether Mitchell will see a full starting running back workload. Mitchell played his lowest snap share of the season week 10 in Jeff Wilson Jr.’s first game back from IR, and the 49ers have utilized Deebo Samuel out of the backfield frequently in the last two weeks. Add in that Mitchell is still nursing that finger injury, and it’s easy to see him playing a smaller role than usual. When you also consider that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher, the potential path to a dud performance in this smash spot gets clearer. You could do worse than Mitchell in your lineups, but there’s more risk here than you’d think. Keep on eye on the injury updates from the 49ers if you’re considering using Mitchell.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): I love what we’ve seen out of Stevenson in recent weeks, but he’s in a full-fledged committee with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden right now, and the Titans have allowed the 4th-fewest running back points per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie post another impressive game, but he’s likely going to be doing so from my bench unless I have limited options. Stevenson has handled at least a dozen touches and posted 70+ scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, but Damien Harris missed most of 2 of those games, and the other was a blowout win over the Falcons. I’m not counting on another 70-yard day on a dozen touches.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It will certainly feel counterintuitive to sit Moore given the production he’s put up in recent weeks, but it might be the right play with Zach Wilson getting the start for the Jets. Moore has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 5 games. He found the end zone in 4 of them, and topped 60 receiving yards in the other, but Zach Wilson started only one of those games, and he was injured and replaced by Mike White in the first half of it. Moore has totaled just 98 scrimmage yards and 1 TD in the 5 games he’s played that Wilson started. That could turn around going forward. Wilson was drafted 2nd overall for a reason, and Moore has clearly carved out a big role in this offense, but their shaky connection has me worried for week 12. Houston isn’t an imposing matchup. The Texans allow the 9th-most WR points per game. Moore is very much in play as a WR3 again this week, but I wouldn’t be plugging him in over other strong options this week.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Bates isn’t a guy I would usually give much consideration to, but he played an eye-popping 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps in week 11. He turned all of that playing time into just 3 catches for 23 yards. Logan Thomas did have his practice window opened to return from IR, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be active in week 12. If Thomas sits, Bates is no more than a desperation plug-in this week.
Rookies you Already Know you Should Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Andy Dalton is getting the start on Turkey Day.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Sermon handled 10 carries and 1 target last Sunday while splitting the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. in Elijah Mitchell’s absence. The 49ers opened up a 21-3 lead before Sermon got his 2nd touch of the game. His work was mostly in garbage time, and Mitchell is expected back this week.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): There is a little upside for Patterson this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and ranks 25th in run defense DVOA, but this feels like a JD McKissic week where the Football Team may be chasing points in a get-right game for Seattle’s offense. Patterson has carried the ball 22 times in the last 3 games, but he’s played just 34 offensive snaps. If you think Washington wins this week, Patterson has more upside than I’m giving him credit for.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 12: @Den.): The Chargers have played musical chairs with their RB2 spot this season, but Rountree hasn’t rushed for more than 11 yards since week 4.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): In Cam Newton’s first start this season, Hubbard went from change-of-pace back to complete afterthought, playing just one offensive snap. I don’t know if CMC played a higher snap share because he’s a week healthier, or if it was because there were fewer total plays as they played a slower tempo with Cam under center (Panthers ran 51 offensive plays in week 11 after running 75 in week 10). Either way, Hubbard isn’t going to play much this week unless it’s a blowout win.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Since the return of David Montgomery two weeks ago, Herbert has played just 17 offensive snaps and touched the ball 5 times.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): In the two games where Jefferson found the end zone, he played a total of just 14 snaps, and Jamaal Williams missed both games. He’s yet to play an offensive snap in a game that Jamaal Williams was active for.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Samaje Perine has stolen Evans’ pass-catching role behind Joe Mixon, and it was already a small role to begin with.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Felton has handled more than 3 touches in just one game, and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were inactive for it. Both should be active this week.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): If you missed the news, Carter is out a couple weeks with injury.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Over the last 5 games since his return from IR, Collins has seen the following target totals: 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. He’s still been on the field for over 50% of the offensive snaps each week, but that’s not a trend you want to chase this week, even against a Jets’ defense that is vulnerable pretty much everywhere.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): Much as I expected, the change to Cam Newton didn’t turn things around for Marshall. WR Brandon Zylstra has played nearly double the snaps that Marshall has in the last 2 weeks, and Terrace has just 3 catch-less targets in those games.
WRs Dax Milne & Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This duo has played fewer combined snaps than Adam Humphries has seen in each of the last two weeks.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Schwartz missed last week’s game with a concussion suffered against the Patriots in week 10 and looks likely to miss this week as well. He’s posted fewer scrimmage yards in the last 10 weeks combined than he did in week 1.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): I think there are some spike weeks coming for Tremble, but I’m not ready to bank on this being one of them. It took just 2 targets from Cam Newton for Tremble to post his best yardage day of the season last week, but 2 or 3 targets aren’t likely to get it done against a Miami defense that has only allowed Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Mo-Alie Cox to reach 10 fantasy points against them at tight end.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Jordan is starting to get more regular playing time, but not enough that he’s a realistic lineup consideration. He’s totaled 6 catches for 57 yards and a score in the 3 games he’s been active for.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Gainwell has kind of been the forgotten man in Philly’s backfield in the last couple weeks. He was a healthy scratch in week 11, but he’s going to be active this week after an injury to Jordan Howard, and I like his chances to be a factor. Gainwell is the most skilled receiving back of the Eagles’ trio, and the Giants allow the 6th-most running back receiving yards per game. Two of Gainwell’s 3 biggest fantasy days came against the defenses allowing the 5th and 7th-most RB receiving yards per game. He hasn’t faced any other teams in the top 8. Gainwell is obviously a risky play given how little he’s been involved in recent weeks, but he costs less than half what Boston Scott does on DraftKings for showdown contests, and I like his odds to outproduce his teammate in this one.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): I didn’t think it was possible to believe this, but Detroit’s pass catchers have to be relieved to see Jared Goff is slated to return this week after the performance from Tim Boyle last Sunday. ARSB pulled in all 4 of his targets for just 18 yards. That represented 23.3% of Boyle’s total passing yardage. This week St. Brown gets to face a Bears’ defense that allowed him to post 6 catches for 70 yards in their first meeting, and the Chicago secondary has gone downhill since then. ARSB’s most frequent matchup will be with Chicago slot corner Duke Shelley. Shelley has allowed 9 yards per target and a completion percentage of over 77% on throws into his coverage. I wouldn’t be eager to get any Lion WRs into my season-long lineups, but if you’re looking for a Detroit receiver to target in Thanksgiving DFS contests, Amon-Ra is my favorite option this week.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 12: @NE): Fitzpatrick has been quite the redemption story in recent weeks. He was a 4th-round pick last spring but failed to make the Titans’ roster out of training camp, and instead was relegated to the practice squad. He’s worked his way back up to the active roster, and now finds himself in a prominent role in the offense as we head into week 12. Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are both on injured reserve, and AJ Brown is battling a couple injuries suffered last Sunday. Fitzpatrick stepped in admirably, earning 6 targets and scoring his first career touchdown against the Texans. He’s likely to avoid New England’s top cover corner JC Jackson whether AJ Brown plays or not, and he could be in line for another 6+ targets. He’s an intriguing cheap DFS play and should be rostered in most dynasty formats.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 12: @Was.): This one is a pure hunch, and one that shouldn’t be tried in any high-stakes contests, but I really like Seattle’s chances to get the offense back on track this week against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in defense DVOA, ahead of only the Jets. Of course, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins are the most likely beneficiaries if that happens, but this feels like the right week to dial up a couple shot plays for Eskridge on a big stage Monday night. He’ll likely cost close to the minimum for Monday Night showdown slate contests.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Be aware of which of your players have a game on Thursday, and make sure you don’t miss out on getting them into your lineup because you were in a turkey coma. Also keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The NFL world continued to be upside down in week 10. The Dolphins stunned the Ravens on Thursday night, the 49ers throttled the Rams on Monday night, and the Lions managed to wrestle a tie from the jaws of victory. Mac Jones threw for 3 touchdowns and Rhamondre Stevenson and DeVonta Smith each scored two, but other than that it was a mostly quiet week for the rookies. The usual suspects had reasonable games (Najee, Waddle, Pitts, Carter), and some backups found the end zone, but not a lot to re-hash. I have a feeling week 11 is going to be a little spicier for the rookies, and I’m excited to take a look at what the upcoming weekend holds in store for them.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 11…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): You were already going to play Najee Harris in all formats this week, but I really want to drive home the point that this is a smash spot for the rookie. The Chargers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 4th-most RB points per game. Harris was in a similar smash spot a week ago against the Lions, but the Steelers’ entire offense sputtered with Mason Rudolph under center. Najee didn’t have a bad game by any means. He topped 130 scrimmage yards and finished as the RB15 for the week, but he didn’t quite live up to his lofty expectations. If Rudolph is at QB again this week, I’d expect a similar borderline RB1 performance from him. If Big Ben returns, the sky is the limit.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): The Jets are switching to Joe Flacco at QB this week, but that shouldn’t change things much for Carter. Flacco may not be quite as conservative as Mike White and will take some shots downfield, but he’ll have no issues checking down to Carter and Ty Johnson. Carter has handled at least 13 times in each of the past 6 games, and 19+ times in 3 of the last 4. He should be in line for another solid workload, and the Dolphins aren’t a defense to be afraid of. Miami is a middling RB defense, allowing the 14th-fewest points per game to the position. Carter is a much more trustworthy option this week than fringe options like Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Ernest Johnson, or D’Onta Foreman. Carter has finished as a top-15 running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 11: @LV): Chase was trending in the wrong direction headed into the bye week after posting 2 of his 3 worst fantasy games of the season in weeks 8 & 9. The Raiders’ defense should fix what’s ailed him. The Raiders haven’t given up a ton of WR points, but they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA and are coming off their worst defensive game of the season. Don’t get cute and consider sitting Chase this week. He should be a locked in WR2.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 11: @NYJ): In PPR formats, Waddle is now locked in as a weekly upside WR3. He’s going to get plenty of volume in this offense, especially while DeVante Parker and Will Fuller remain sidelined. The Jets are a middling matchup on paper, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, but they rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Jets’ slot corner Michael Carter has allowed a 77% completion percentage and nearly 8 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Waddle should have no problem posting another solid, volume-drive top-30 performance in PPR formats.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 11: vs. NE): Pitts has been a frustrating player to have rostered this season. The underlying usage (route participation, target share, etc.) has been worthy of an elite TE, but the production hasn’t matched that. Defenses have been able to key on Pitts with Calvin Ridley missing games, and the Falcons’ overall offense has been a mess at times. Pitts still finished as the TE12 and TE15 the last two weeks in two abysmal games. Yes, the Patriots are going to try to take him away Thursday night, but he only needs a handful of catches to return top-10 value at the position and the Falcons don’t have a lot of other options to throw the ball to. I wouldn’t fault you for sitting him if you had another stud tight end to start over him, but if you’re looking at guys like Dan Arnold, Freiermuth, or Zach Ertz to start over him, you shouldn’t be.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): Jones is coming off the first 3-touchdown performance of his career and gets to face a hapless Atlanta defense that allows the 3rd-most QB points per game. This is the perfect opportunity to fire up Mac Jones, right? As Lee Corso would say, “not so fast, my friends.” Jones has played the best football of any rookie QB this season, but it’s resulted in just 1 game with 20+ fantasy points. There are 9 QBs that have averaged 21 fantasy points per game or more. In fact, the point total that earned Jones a QB4 finish last week wouldn’t have been better than QB9 in any other week this season, and would only have been a top-12 performance in two other weeks. He does not have the ceiling you want in a starting QB in 1-QB formats, even in a great matchup like this. The Pats don’t throw enough, and they don’t push the ball downfield enough when they do to make Mac a viable top-10 QB option. In superflex leagues, Mac is a great, safe QB2 play this week, but he’s nothing more than a fringe play if you’re looking for a QB1. I expect the Patriots to lean on their run game unless they’re somehow playing from behind and have to throw.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Lawrence is coming off two terrible fantasy performances in the last two weeks but has a chance to bounce back against the 49ers. San Francisco looked great on Monday night slowing down Matt Stafford and the Rams, but for the season they’ve allowed the 7th-most QB points per game and have been especially vulnerable to running quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed 5 different QBs to run for more than 20 yards against them (including Carson Wentz) and allowed 4 of them to run for a touchdown. Lawrence has run for 20+ yards five times this season, and that rushing upside this week could provide a boost. He’s only in play in superflex leagues, but Trevor is a better play this week than you might think.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): It’s hard to not be excited by the game Rhamondre put up last Sunday, rolling to 114 scrimmage yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an RB2 overall finish with Damien Harris sidelined by a concussion. We all want to see more Rhamondre, and the hope is that Bill Belichick rides Stevenson’s hot hand rather than give the job back to Damien Harris. I’m not confident that’s going to happen. Stevenson has played more snaps than Harris just twice all season. One of those games was in week 5 against the Texans, where Harris battled through an injury suffered early in the game and the Patriots battled a negative game script. The other was last week when Harris was inactive. Outside of those two games Harris has functioned as the clear lead back, and I expect that to happen again Thursday night. The good news for Rhamondre is that the Patriots are a touchdown favorite and will probably have ample opportunity to run the ball. He’s also more involved in the passing game than Harris. If you’re considering Stevenson, I expect him to have around a dozen touches operating as the RB2 behind Harris, maybe a bit more if the Pats pull away. He’s an upside flex option.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Mitchell came away from last week’s win over the Rams with a broken finger that has kept him out of practice this week. Kyle Shanahan still expects him to play this week, but you need to make sure he’s active before plugging him in. It’s worth mentioning that the return of Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like it’s going to be a problem for Mitchell. Elijah played his lowest snap share since week 4, and even gave way to Deebo Samuel for some RB snaps. You could argue the 49ers were resting him due to being way ahead for much of the night, but Mitchell was in the game getting carries on the 49ers final drive. The injury this week just makes it even more likely that he plays less than his usual workload. The Jaguars are not as inviting a matchup as you’d think. Jacksonville ranks 7th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 13th-fewest RB rushing yards per game despite the fact they’re usually playing from behind. I think Mitchell is a dicey flex option this week, especially if your league gives points for receptions. Mitchell should be able to carry the ball with a pin in his broken finger, but catching it? I’m not so sure. He could see even less receiving work than usual.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 11: @Chi.): Bateman was frustratingly rotated with Sammy Watkins for much of last Thursday’s game, but down the stretch when the Ravens needed to throw, Bateman was heavily involved. Marquise Brown isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and that means Bateman could function as the team’s WR1 this week. He’s averaged 7 targets per game since his return from IR, and the Bears are allowing the 4th-most WR points per game and rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. If Brown plays, Bateman is an upside WR3 option again this week, but if Brown sits, it pushes Shoddy B closer to the WR2 range.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): Smith has posted back-to-back 20-point games, but I’d give it some thought before firing him up in lineups this week. The Eagles have shifted their offense drastically toward the running game in recent weeks, averaging just 19 pass attempts per game in their last 3 contests. At some point, negative game script is going to force them back into throwing, but I’m not sure it’ll be this week against the Trevor Siemian-led Saints. If the Eagles don’t throw more, you’re counting on Smith making a big splash on limited volume if you play him, and he gets a tough individual matchup with week with shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Smith is only getting open against man coverage about 32% of the time per PFF’s Arjun Menon. That ranks 122nd out of 154 qualified pass catchers. Lattimore hasn’t been quite himself this year, allowing nearly 10 yards per target and a 103 passer rating into his coverage, but he’s limited other top options he’s shadowed like Davante Adams (5-56 on 7 targets), Terry McLaurin (4-46 on 11 targets), and Mike Evans (2-48-1 on 4 targets). Smith still has plenty of upside to be started as a WR3, but there is considerable risk that he puts up a clunker. Be aware of it if you’re considering him for lineups.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Week 10 had some positive signs for Moore, and some negative ones. The positive is that he got in the end zone again and he reached double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row. He also showed a quick rapport with week 11 starter Joe Flacco, catching two of the three completions Flacco threw, including the TD. The negative is that he played only 56% of the offensive snaps and was ceding playing time to Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith. The return of Corey Davis showed that Davis is still clearly the WR1 in this offense. If the rapport with Flacco carries over, Moore should have no problem overcoming the limited playing time and being a solid WR4 option this week, but that remains to be seen. It is a good matchup. The Dolphins allow the 3rd-most WR points per game. You just have to ask yourself if you trust Joe Flacco.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): The Steelers are building their game plan for this week as though Mason Rudolph is going to be under center again. That’s not good news for Freiermuth or any other Steelers’ pass-catcher. Freiermuth saw a season-high 9 targets with Rudolph under center but posted his worst fantasy game since prior to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s season ending injury. He’s going to be heavily involved in the offense even with Rudolph at QB, but the volume from Rudolph just doesn’t go as far as volume from Big Ben. The Chargers allow the 4th-most TE points per game, so the matchup is a good one. I’d treat Freiermuth as a top-15 option with Rudolph at QB, and a top-10 option if Big Ben is able to play.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Fields has made strides in recent performances and has had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens, but I don’t like his chances of posting a big fantasy day in this one. Fields was the QB12 from week 6 through week 9, the span of his last 4 games, but 45% of his fantasy output came from his rushing production. He rushed for at least 38 yards in each game. No starting QB facing the Ravens this season has run for more than 12 yards. The Ravens allow the 11th-most QB points per game, but I’m not counting on Fields to take advantage of this matchup. I view him as a low-end QB2 in week 11.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Wilson was a full participant in practice last Friday before being ultimately being inactive on Sunday. He seemed to be trending toward a week 11 return, but the Jets announced Wednesday that Joe Flacco will get the start instead. It would’ve been a favorable matchup for the rookie against a defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, but his only hope to make an impact would be a mid-game substitution like Tua had against the Ravens last week. Hopefully Wilson can return in week 12.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): In the absence of Miles Sanders, it’s become obvious that Kenneth Gainwell is going to be limited to being just a receiving down back for the Eagles used mostly in obvious passing situations, and they just haven’t had many obvious passing situations in recent weeks. The Eagles have committed to running the football, and the result has been much better game scripts, which limit Gainwell’s opportunity. He’s touched the ball just 5 times in the last 2 weeks, and I don’t expect the return of Sanders to change the team’s game plan.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Hubbard handled 9 rushing attempts and got into the end zone in week 10, but he did so on just 16 snaps in a blowout win over the Cardinals. 8 of Chuba’s 9 carries came with the Panthers up by at least 3 scores. It’s not impossible that they get way up again this week, but that’s not usage you want to bet on. Chuba remains just a CMC handcuff.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): In David Montgomery’s return to action in week 9, Herbert played just 10 snaps and handled 4 rushing attempts. This is David Montgomery’s backfield.
RB Larry Rountree II, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Like Chuba, Rountree got into the end zone last weekend on limited opportunities. He hasn’t played 10+ snaps since week 4. There’s no need to consider him.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Rondale has now gone 5 consecutive weeks with fewer than 30 scrimmage yards and fewer than 8 PPR points. He’s getting nothing but short targets, no matter who is at QB. With AJ Green’s return last week, Moore’s snap share dropped from 81% in week 9 to 33% in week 10. There is a silver lining for Moore in that the Seahawks allow the 5th-most yards after catch in the league, but he’s no more than a low-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 11: @TB): The upside with Toney is tantalizing, but we can’t let ourselves be tricked into chasing fool’s gold. We saw the ceiling in weeks 4 & 5 as Toney totaled 16 catches and 267 yards, but outside of those two games he’s totaled 12 catches for 85 yards the rest of the season. The Giants have consistently proven that they don’t know how to effectively get Toney involved, and I wouldn’t chase the upside with Toney this week. Yes the Giants will have to throw a lot, and yes the Bucs allow the 12th-most WR points per game, but Toney is still going to end up with something like 4-25 on 5 targets.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was): With Cam Newton under center, look for the Panthers’ offense to transition to using significantly more 2-tight end sets to sell the threat of the power run game with Cam. This is going to mean less playing time for Marshall, who functions as the team’s WR3.Thanks to a very positive game script last week, we already got a preview of what that might look like moving forward with Terrace playing just 24% of the offensive snaps. This is a plus matchup for a WR, with Washington allowing the 2nd-most points per game to the position, but you can’t count on Marshall given the amount of playing time he’s been getting lately. Keep him parked on the bench unless we see a drastic change in his usage in the next couple weeks as Cam gets settled in.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Brown returned from injury last week, but basically functioned as the team’s WR5, even with Curtis Samuel still sidelined. It looks as though DeAndre Carter has earned that WR2 role opposite Terry McLaurin, and Adam Humphries has manned the slot. Fellow rookie Dax Milne is even playing ahead of Brown at this point. Milne isn’t playing enough to warrant fantasy consideration – he’s tallied just 5 catches for 60 yards in the last 3 weeks, but he’s got more value than Brown at this point.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Eskridge finally got back on the field last week but played a very limited role. Freddie Swain and Penny Hart were each on the field significantly more than Eskridge, but the team did make an effort to get the ball to Eskridge when he was on the field. He was targeted twice on just 5 offensive snaps last week. He’s worth continuing to monitor, but he should be on the waiver wire in most redraft formats.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Don’t fall into the trap here. Ricky Seals-Jones isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and Logan Thomas is no sure thing to return either. That leaves Bates as the starting TE if both are out. There isn’t much upside to chase here though. In his last two college seasons, Bates averaged just 2.4 catches and 28 receiving yards per game, and the Panthers have allowed the 13th-fewest TE points per game. You’d have to be very desperate to use Bates in fantasy lineups this week. The only place I’d look at him is in a Showdown DFS contest for this game.
Rookies on Bye in week 11: RB Javonte Williams, DEN, RB Jake Funk, LAR, WR Tutu Atwell, LAR
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Amon-Ra hasn’t put up many fantasy performances to be excited about, but he’s averaged nearly 6 targets per game over the last 6 games and gets easily the best individual matchup of any Detroit wide receiver this week. The Lions are double-digit underdogs in Cleveland, so they should be throwing a bunch. Cleveland’s slot corner, Troy Hill, has allowed a whopping 134.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage, and that’s who ARSB will match up with. Detroit may be missing Jared Goff, but I don’t believe Tim Boyle or David Blough will be a notable downgrade at the position given how bad Goff has been. Keep an eye on team updates if considering Amon-Ra. Josh Reynolds may get more involved this week now that he should be up to speed. I don’t expect increased Reynolds snaps to come from St. Brown though. I’d view ARSB as a PPR WR4 consideration, and as a guy to target in DFS Showdown contests for this game.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 11: @Ten.): Collins shouldn’t be in consideration in most fantasy formats, but he could be in prime position to post his best game of the season. The Titans are a double-digit favorite, so that should keep the Texans throwing the ball, and Tennessee has allowed more WR catches and receiving yards than any other team in the league. Brandin Cooks is the obvious beneficiary of this matchup, but Collins has functioned as the clear WR2 since his return from IR. He’s no more than a bargain dart throw in DFS tournaments ($3,300 on DraftKings), but he’s got a higher ceiling this week than usual.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): If you read what I wrote above about Terrace Marshall Jr., you know I think the Panthers utilize the tight end position more going forward. That means more playing time for Tremble. So far, his production has been lackluster with just 39 total receiving yards in the last 4 weeks, but he’s seen nearly double the targets that Ian Thomas has in that span, and Cam Newton likes to utilize the tight end position. Tremble played a season-high 68% of the offensive snaps last week. A spike in production is likely coming soon. Now is the time to stash Tremble in deeper leagues, especially in dynasty formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last two weeks have made us rethink everything we thought we knew about the NFL this season, but here’s hoping things get back to normal this week. Week 8 saw unheralded QBs Mike White, Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian lead their teams to huge upset wins. Week 9 saw the Bills fall to the Jaguars, the Cowboys throttled by Denver, and the Rams look lost against the Derrick Henry-less Titans. It was an eventful week for the rookies too. Ja’Marr Chase posted the worst game of his rookie campaign and Kyle Pitts underwhelmed again, but DeVonta Smith and Elijah Moore had the kind of games we’ve been waiting for from them. Jaylen Waddle topped 80 yards for the 2nd time this year, and Javonte Williams ran for over 100 for the first time. Hopefully there are more rookie firsts in store for us this weekend, but I’m here still here to walk you through what to expect from the rookies this weekend even if there aren’t.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 10…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Harris this week, but this is an especially good spot for the rookie. Detroit has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank 25th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA stat. He should be an automatic chalk play in DFS cash games, and not a bad tournament option either. Just be aware that he’s going to be in a LOT of lineups. We’ve seen some baffling performances by clear chalk picks in recent weeks, but Najee is a very strong bet to post a top-12 performance this week, with an RB1 overall ceiling.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): Waddle has very quietly hauled in the 6th-most receptions in the league so far. He’s had 8+ targets come his way in each of the last 4 games and posted 15+ PPR points in 3 of them. The Ravens are a tough matchup, allowing the 10th-fewest WR points per game. Slot corner Tavon Young has allowed just a 58.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage. I still expect Waddle’s volume to rule the day. He’s going to get enough work to make up for it. Brissett starting again lowers his overall ceiling, but Waddle is a safe WR3 in PPR formats this week.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Pitts has topped at least 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and gets to face a Dallas defense allowing the 12th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Trevon Diggs cover the rookie a fair amount, but Diggs has been prone to giving up big plays, allowing 15.8 yards per completion into his coverage. We already know Pitts can produce big plays, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch over the last 3 weeks. Pitts remains a top-6 tight end option in this one.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Freiermuth’s run of recent success continued in week 9. He’s now been targeted at least 6 times and caught for over 40 yards in 3 straight games, topping 14 fantasy points in each of the last two, and now gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Lions have only allowed the 11th-fewest TE points per game but opposing offenses have been able to pick them apart wherever they choose to, and the Steelers are going to continue to pepper Freiermuth with targets. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert all broke 70 receiving yards against this defense. With Chase Claypool potentially sidelined, the Steelers may have to rely on the rookie tight end even more. He’s a top-10 tight end play this week, and a bargain for main slate DFS contests, where top options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, George Kittle and Darren Waller are not available.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): The Jaguars stunned the football world with a victory over the Bills last weekend, but it was a second straight clunker of a fantasy game for Lawrence, and the second straight game where the Jaguars failed to score 10 points as a team. This week looks much more promising for the #1 overall pick. James Robinson should be back in action, taking some of the offensive burden off the quarterback, and he gets to face a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 3rd-most points per game to QBs and ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. I like Trevor’s chances of accounting for multiple TDs in this game and finishing as a fringe QB1.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): It was great to see Williams top 100 rushing yards for the first time in his burgeoning career last Sunday, but don’t be fooled into thinking the season-high 17 carries were a sign of things to come for him. Melvin Gordon still carried the ball 21 times in a game that the Broncos controlled throughout. This is still a full-on timeshare, but it’s a full-on timeshare facing a favorable matchup. The Eagles have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game, and Williams has consistently been the more efficient back of the duo. Philly’s recent shift to a run-heavy game plan could put a dent in the overall number of plays run in this one, so Williams might not have quite the same ceiling in this one that he would’ve a few weeks ago, but he should finish as a top-24 back in week 10.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Week 9 was at least a little concerning if you have Mitchell on your roster after he saw his 2nd-lowest touch total of the season. A lot of that can be chalked up to game script. JaMycal Hasty was operating as the 3rd-down back, and the 49ers were in catch-up mode for most of the game. The problem is that the 49ers could find themselves in a similar boat on Monday night. The Rams are only favored by 4 but will be looking for a get-right game after stumbling against the Titans. The 49ers also will likely activate Jeff Wilson Jr. for the first time this season, who could siphon playing time from the rookie. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that Mitchell will continue to be the lead back and see him as a low-end RB2 option against a solid Rams’ defense that adds Von Miller into the mix this week. The Rams have had more struggles with receiving backs (D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard) than pure runners.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): The matchup here isn’t great, but Carter’s usage has been consistent, and he gets checkdown hero Mike White back under center. The Bills don’t allow much RB receiving production, giving up the fewest RB receptions and 4th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but the ball is still going to find its way to Carter. He’s seen 15+ touches in each of the last 3 weeks and should see similar usage here. The ceiling is low, but Carter should be able to return an RB3-worthy performance in PPR formats.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bateman hasn’t played in a game with Sammy Watkins active yet, but it’s hard to imagine the 1st-round rookie will take a major backseat to the veteran in Watkins’ first game back. Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in each game he’s been active for and seen at least 6 targets in each. I expect another 6+ targets tonight. Bateman is an upside WR3 play this week against the Dolphins, who allow the 3rd-most WR points per game. Don’t let Watkins scare you off firing him up if you were considering starting him when you expected Sammy to sit.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Here’s hoping last Sunday was a sign that Smith and Jalen Hurts are finally on the same page, but I’m not ready yet to declare that they definitely are. Smith has dominated air yards in this passing game all season, but the Eagles’ recent recommitment to the running game has lowered his margin for error. He’s seen 3 of his 4 lowest target totals of the season in the last 4 games and totaled just 107 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to his 5-116-1 breakout last week. The Broncos allow the 14th-fewest WR points per game. Smith is back to being a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Last week was the breakout performance we’ve been waiting for from Moore, with 2 touchdowns, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. Corey Davis should return to the lineup, and the Jets face a Buffalo defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With Mike White back under center, there’s still a chance at a floor week for Moore, but that likely means closer to 40 yards than the 60+ we’ve seen the last couple weeks. He’s in play as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues, but I’d probably lean away from him in most leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Jones faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 11th-most QB points per game, but this defensive unit has been much better than that number implies. They’ve been shredded a few times this season, by star quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. In their other 6 games, they’ve allowed just 11.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. No QB they’ve faced in the last 3 weeks has reached 15. I’d be hesitant to play Mac anywhere this week unless you have to in a superflex or 2-QB league.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Stevenson is fighting to get himself cleared from the concussion protocol this week, as is teammate Damien Harris. As of now, I would guess that neither guy gets cleared, but Stevenson should function as the lead back if he gets cleared and Harris doesn’t. Even in that case, he’s no more than a fringe option for deeper leagues. The Browns rank 5th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Felton was placed on the Browns’ Covid-reserve list this week along with Nick Chubb, but since both players are vaccinated there is a chance that one or both could get cleared in time for this game. If Felton gets cleared and Chubb doesn’t, the rookie will play a larger role than usual in this offense, but it still won’t be one worthy of starting in your lineups. In the one game this season where Chubb and Kareem Hunt were both inactive, Felton played a season-high 22 offensive snaps, but he handled just 2 rushing attempts and 3 targets in that game. There’s a glimmer of hope for Felton as the Patriots allow the 3rd-most RB receiving yards per game and he’s a pass catching specialist, but the upside isn’t great enough to chase here.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Gainwell got into the end zone last weekend, but he was on the field for just 11 offensive snaps and handled only 2 offensive touches. He’s a non-factor in this offense right now, and you can’t start him until that changes.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): The return of Christian McCaffrey sends Hubbard back to being nothing more than a handcuff with little to no standalone value. Chuba played just 10 snaps in week 9, even with McCaffrey playing less than half of the offensive plays. Ameer Abdullah worked as the RB2 ahead of Hubbard. As McCaffrey’s workload gets ramped back up in the coming weeks, Hubbard will have even less of a chance to play a fantasy relevant role.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Jamaal Williams still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and Jefferson posted 12.9 PPR points in week 8 with Williams sidelined, but there is no reason to count on a repeat performance here. The bulk of Jefferson’s points came on a 4th quarter garbage time drive that he capped with a touchdown. Through the first 3 quarters, D’Andre Swift handled 17 of Detroit’s 22 running back touches, and the leftover touches were split between Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. You don’t need me to tell you that spitting less than 25% of the backfield touches against a team allowing the 3rd-fewest RB points per game isn’t an ideal situation to start a running back.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): ARSB is consistently playing right around 70% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, but it isn’t translating to a ton of fantasy production. He’s fine if you’re looking for 8-10 PPR points without upside for a lot more, but most of us should be looking for a higher ceiling. The Steelers have allowed double-digit PPR games to several slot WRs this year - Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb, Hunter Renfrow, and Tyler Boyd – but St. Brown will likely need to find the end zone to make him a worthwhile start. He’s yet to do that all season.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): It’s a new week, but it’s the same story for Rondale, who just isn’t seeing deep enough targets to put up fantasy points. He’s topped 40 scrimmage yards just once since his breakout game in week 2. The Panthers have allowed the 5th-fewest yards after catch this season, making this an unlikely spot for a surprise big performance.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Schwartz did see a jump in playing time in week 9 with Odell Beckham Jr. given the boot. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps but garnered just one target that he hauled in for 15 yards last week. The Browns are likely to use him as a situational deep threat the rest of the way, but the Patriots aren’t especially vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing just 3 completions of 40+ yards this season.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Marshall returned from a two-week absence to just a 37% snap share and one target despite the Panthers trailing for the majority of the game and needing to throw. Carolina also lost QB Sam Darold for the next 4+ weeks. While that could be a good thing for the Panthers’ passing game given Darnold’s struggles, the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Backup QB PJ Walker has thrown about 60% of his career pass attempts to those two receivers (42 of 71), and I expect it to be Walker under center this week as Cam gets up to speed. Keep Marshall sidelined until his production gives us a reason not to.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 10: @GB): I only mention Eskridge this week because he’s officially returned to practice after missing half the season due to a concussion suffered in week 1. Eskridge was being used as part-time gadget player before getting hurt in week 1, but his 2nd round draft capital speaks to grander plans that the Seahawks may have for him. It’s worth monitoring how the Seahawks utilize him against the Packers if he’s able to return to action.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): I keep waiting for the week where Tremble turns his playing time into production, but he’s now played 45% or more of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games and hasn’t reached even 20 yards in any of them. He remains waiver fodder.
Rookies on bye in week 10: QB Justin Fields, CHI, QB Davis Mills, HOU, RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB Chris Evans, CIN, WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR Nico Collins, HOU, TE Brevin Jordan, HOU
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): It’s easy to forget what a team coming off a bye did in their last game, but it was Patterson that led Washington in rushing attempts and rushing yards in week 8 against Denver, finishing with 11 carries for 46 yards. It was clear Washington was trying to limit Antonio Gibson’s snaps headed into the bye week, but it’s not clear if the bye week fixed the problem for Gibson. His practice schedule this week has mirrored what he was doing in the weeks prior to the bye, and it’s entirely possible Washington continues to severely limit his playing time coming out of it. Washington is sitting at 2-6 and is very likely to fall to 2-7 this week. It’s only a matter of time before they shut Gibson down for the season if his shin isn’t improving. Patterson is unlikely to have much success running against the stout Bucs front this week, but if he leads the backfield in carries again you probably won’t be able to get him for free for much longer in deep leagues. If you’re desperate for RB help down the stretch, Patterson is a worthwhile speculative add.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 10: @LAC): None of us like having to talk about what’s going on with Dalvin Cook right now, but there’s no avoiding the fact that it could affect his availability in the second half of the season. As of right now he’s eligible to play, but there’s no way to be certain that won’t change. Obviously, Alexander Mattison would be the biggest beneficiary on the football field if Dalvin were to miss time, but Nwangwu would start finding his way onto the field as well. The rookie is a special teams standout who returned a kick for a score last week. With Ameer Abdullah out of the way, Nwangwu would be the clear RB2 on this team behind Mattison if Dalvin does become ineligible. He’s a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues, especially those that give points for return yards.
WR Jaelon Darden, TB (Wk. 10: @Was.): The Bucs may be without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown this week in a matchup against the defense allowing the 2nd-most WR points per game. Darden likely would see a healthy number of slot snaps playing behind Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson and has some PPR upside in deep leagues. Darden is a guy the Bucs have tried to get the ball to when he’s on the field. He’s seen 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt on just 25 snaps. The floor here is a goose egg, but don’t be surprised if Darden puts up 8-10 PPR points this week.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): Brown is only in play in DFS contests this week, but he should be in line for a lot of playing time in a game where game script should keep the Football Team throwing with Tampa favored by nearly 10 points. Brown missed week 5 with injury, and then returned to an 80% snap share and 6 targets in week 6 against Kansas City. The Bucs allow the 11th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 9th-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. Assuming he’s able to play, Dyami has reasonable upside and costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last 7 days around the NFL have been an absolute whirlwind. We’ve seen a potential Hall of Famer get traded (Von Miller), another future Hall of Famer be proven to be dishonest about his vaccination status (Aaron Rodgers), a disgruntled star wide receiver get told to stay away from his team after allegedly orchestrating a social media campaign against his QB (Odell Beckham Jr.), and another star WR step away from football to work on his mental health (Calvin Ridley). The worst news of the week, however, was the arrest of Henry Ruggs, and the tragic circumstances around it. Ruggs was driving faster than 150 MPH while at twice the legal blood alcohol limit and crashed into and killed a young Las Vegas woman. Ruggs’ recklessness likely means the end of his NFL career, but that is the least important part of sorting through the wreckage that his irresponsible decisions caused.
None of these news updates even touch on the action we saw on the field last week, and that action was wild enough on its own. No one saw the Mike White-led Jets or Cooper Rush-led Cowboys picking up upset wins this week, or the ultra-durable Derrick Henry suffering a season-ending foot injury. I also didn’t see disappearing acts coming from Kyle Pitts, Kenneth Gainwell, and DeVonta Smith. Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, and Justin Fields pick up the rookie slack. Which rookies are going to step up in week 9 and help you fill in for your byes and injured players? Let’s take a look and find out.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 9…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): You already know to start Harris, but his recent usage has been in the Derrick Henry range. Over the past 3 games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 5 targets per game, this week he faces a defense that has allowed over 130 rushing yards to opposing backs in each of their last 3 games. The Bears rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Harris is a locked-in RB1 again this week, even without stellar rushing efficiency.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Chase had one of the worst fantasy games we’ve seen from him in his rookie season, with a season-low 32 receiving yards. He still finished the week as the WR27. He’s a must-start, and this week he faces a defense allowing the 15th-most WR points per game. Keep Chase locked into your lineups.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 9: @NO): Was week 8 a frustrating one for you if you started Kyle Pitts? You bet it was, but I’m comfortable going back to the well this week. The Falcons didn’t know until Sunday morning that they were going to be without star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and had no film on how the Panthers would deploy CB Stephon Gilmore, as he was making his first appearance for the team. With Ridley out, the Falcons offense was out of sorts, and Gilmore was able to shadow Pitts all game. Pitts’ production was terrible, finishing with just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets, but his usage was a level rarely seen by a tight end. Pitts was in a route on 97% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, and those 6 targets still represented a 22% target share as Matt Ryan threw just 27 times. The Falcons will be able to prepare all week knowing they won’t have Ridley. They’re going to be much more creative in finding ways to ensure that Pitts isn’t followed around by Marshon Lattimore all day, and Pitts should be in line for a nice bounce back game. It’s true the Saints allow just the 5th-fewest TE points per game, but they’ve faced just one tight end all year that’s currently better than the TE20 on the season. Don’t run from the matchup. Pitts should be in your lineup this week unless you have an elite top-5 TE option to start over him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): If this were last year, the Panthers would be exactly the kind of defense Mac Jones would be licking his chops to face. The 2020 version of the Panthers were content to sit back in zone coverage and let teams pick them apart underneath, but not give up the deep ball. They had the 9th-lowest blitz rate, and the 12th-lowest press coverage rate in the league. The 2021 Panthers, on the other hand, have the 4th-highest rates in both areas. They play aggressive in coverage, and they get after you up front, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore has them back to playing defense at a high level after a few shakier defensive weeks. Jones has been efficient through his first half-season, but it hasn’t come with much fantasy upside, and this week could be a challenging one. The reason I list Mac as a borderline option is because I see him as a borderline QB2 this week. Four teams are sitting the week out on byes, and a few others are without their starting QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston could all be out this week. I’d prefer Mac over bottom-of-the-barrel options like PJ Walker, Mike White, Jordan Love, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence & Justin Fields this week. He doesn’t have a big ceiling in this matchup, but he should have a reasonable floor.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Carter dazzled in week 8, hauling in 9 receptions and finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He’s clearly established himself as the lead back in this committee over Ty Johnson, and Mike White at QB has been a huge boost to his receiving production. White has targeted running backs on over 40% of his passes while Zach Wilson was below 20%. This week’s matchup isn’t an ideal one for Carter. The Colts rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, and the Jets’ offense is expected to struggle with an implied total of just 18 points. Indy doesn’t give up a ton of receiving production to backs, allowing just 4 receptions and 33 yards per game to the position. With White at QB, the checkdowns are going to keep coming, so I do expect the Jets’ backs to out-pace those receiving averages the Colts have allowed. Carter just doesn’t possess the same ceiling this week that he did against the Bengals. He’s a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues, and a little lower than that in half-PPR. If I were going to target Jets’ pass catchers in showdown contests, Carter, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore would be my choices.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week…or they might not get him back for two more weeks. It’s hard to say with any certainty at this point, but the Panthers did open his practice window to potentially return. If McCaffrey is ready to go this week, don’t play Hubbard. If he sits again, Hubbard should be in good position to post an RB2 week. Of the trio of rookie lead backs who don’t catch many passes (Hubbard/Elijah Mitchell/Khalil Herbert), Chuba has the most favorable matchup this week. The Patriots rank a middling 17th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 18th-most RB points per game. They’re not an inviting matchup, but they aren’t as daunting as those faced by the other rookie backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure CMC sits before locking in Chuba in your lineups.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Mitchell had a big game against the Bears last Sunday, rolling up over 130 yards and a touchdown, but the sledding will be a bit tougher this week. The Cardinals rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve also probably seen enough film on Mitchell to know he’s kind of a one-trick pony. He doesn’t catch passes, and he hasn’t had much success running between the tackles. 13 of his 15 rushes of 10+ yards this year have come either off-tackle, or on the outside. The Bears allow the 2nd-highest yards per rush average on those kinds of carries. The Cardinals allow the 18th-highest average. Mitchell is still the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball. He’s got a questionable tag with a rib injury, so keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he should be a solid flex option with upside this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): The Bears have opened the practice window for David Montgomery to return from IR, so this may be your last opportunity to get Herbert into your lineups before he’s relegated to backup duty again. He’s proven to be an outstanding runner in his first few opportunities this year, but he seemed to hit a wall in the second half against the 49ers last Sunday. Khalil tallied just 8 scrimmage yards in the second half on 10 carries and 1 reception. The Steelers are an even better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game. If Montgomery is out again this week, Herbert is still a reasonable RB3 option, but know that it could be tough sledding for him against the Steelers.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 9: @Dal.): This is your weekly ‘Javonte Williams is going to touch the ball about a dozen times and may or may not post a useful fantasy stat-line with them’ update. Dallas has been solid against the run, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Dallas has given up just 4 running back TDs all year, and you’ll probably need a score to feel good about starting Javonte. He’s an RB3 option if you’re desperate.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Waddle had a down game against a tough Bills’ defense in week 8, but he should get back on track against the Texans on Sunday. After facing Taron Johnson last week, the Texans’ secondary will be a sight for sore eyes. Waddle has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Tua returned to the lineup, and the Texans are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Waddle should pile up enough catches to post a strong PPR WR3 game.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Since returning from IR, Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps and seen 6 targets in both games he’s been active for. This week he gets to face a Minnesota defense allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. I expect the Ravens to continue to get their 1st round pick involved in this good matchup. The Ravens still don’t throw enough to make Bateman a truly safe play along with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he should be a reasonable WR3/4 option this week in all formats.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Toney seems likely to play this week despite suffering yet another injury Monday night against the Chiefs. It also appears that Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will return to action as well, so it remains to be seen just how big a target share Toney is going to get. I expect the Giants want him involved after his breakout games a few weeks ago, but his ceiling might not be as high this week against the Raiders. 58% of Toney’s yards on the season have come after the catch, and Vegas has allowed the 2nd-fewest yards after catch in the league. Toney is still in play as a WR3/4 option, but I’d take a long look at your other available options before pulling the trigger.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Smith remains an infuriating player if you have him on your fantasy rosters. He dominates usage in this passing game, still sitting at a 23% target share and nearly 40% air yard share for the season, but he just isn’t converting those things into fantasy points. For the season, he’s scored fewer points than Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, and Kendrick Bourne. He’s much closer to a must-sit than a must-start at this point, but the usage keeps alive the hope of a tantalizing ceiling. The Chargers probably aren’t the team that he’ll reach it against. They’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. Smith is in the ‘only if you’re desperate’ category this week.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Freiermuth faces a tough matchup on paper this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest tight end points per game, but his target volume keeps him in the TE streamer discussion this week. The rookie has been targeted 7 times in each game since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down for the season, and that volume should continue going forward. With TJ Hockenson and Gronk on a bye, Noah Fant on the covid list, you may be looking for a replacement this week. There are probably streaming options with higher upside than Freiermuth this week, but the Steelers’ TE should be a safe floor play who should clear 40 yards.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Fields finally posted the kind of game we’ve been waiting for from him last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a talented Pittsburgh defense. His big day last week was a result of over 100 yards and a score running the ball, and so far, the Steelers have only allowed 1 quarterback to rush for more than 11 yards against them. Matt Nagy returns to the sideline this week, giving Fields another obstacle to overcome. I would view him as a very tail end QB2 option this week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Bills have only allowed 1 quarterback all season to post a top-12 finish against them, and I don’t like Lawrence’s chances to make it 2. In week 8, Lawrence saw his efficiency levels fall back to where they were in the first few weeks of the season despite facing a burnable Seattle defense. This week he takes on a Buffalo unit that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fewest QB points per game, and has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last 6 games, with at least one in every contest. They’ve been a defensive buzzsaw and are not a great spot to hope for a Lawrence bounce back after his down game last week. Garbage time may give Lawrence more upside this week than Mac Jones, but his floor is lower. I’d keep the rookie parked on my bench.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In case you missed the news, Tyrod Taylor will be back from IR and starting at QB for the Texans this week. Across his 6 starts, Mills faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses. The Colts were the only team he started against that doesn’t rank in the top-12 in the league at limiting QB points, and now he goes back to the bench as the Texans prepare to face a Miami team that allows the 3rd-most points to the position. Sometimes the world just isn’t fair.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Like everyone else, I too was shocked that the Eagles phased Gainwell out of their offense against the Lions last weekend. I expected a lot of Boston Scott and Gainwell in the backfield with Miles Sanders sidelined, but the Eagles opted to use Jordan Howard as the 2nd RB instead of the rookie. The final stat sheet actually shows Gainwell led the backfield in touches, but almost all of his opportunities came in the 4th quarter after the other two backs had each found the end zone twice. I don’t expect Gainwell to only have 1 touch through the first 3 quarters again this week, but I do expect the Eagles to have a similar gameplan against a Chargers’ defense allowing the most RB rushing yards per game. It clearly worked well last week, and I expect a lot of Boston Scott and Jordan Howard again this week. Gainwell may play a bit more, but I’d shy away from using him in any fantasy lineups this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): The Patriots backfield after Damien Harris continues to be a conundrum to sort out each week. Even if Stevenson works as the team RB2 this week, which is far from a certainty, he’s going to see limited opportunity against a defense allowing the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Rountree may get a bit more run this week against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson, but it’s hard to know exactly how big that role will be behind Austin Ekeler. He’s gotten additional run in games the Chargers have won easily, so if you think they run away with this game, Rountree may have some desperation flex-appeal in non-PPR leagues. I wouldn’t count on him though.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Evans should return from injury this week, but the Browns allow the 9th-fewest RB receptions per game, and we’ve seen Evans be productive exactly 1 time in the 5 games where he saw snaps.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): With Nick Chubb back on the field last week, Felton totaled just 1 rushing attempt and 1 target. He’s not worth a roster spot in season-long leagues.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Sermon hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 5…when he played all of 2 offensive snaps. Nothing to see here.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 9: @SF): Moore could move into a more prominent role this week with AJ Green on the Covid list, but he’ll have to be utilized differently to cash in on the opportunity. The majority of Moore’s work this season has come on short passes behind the line of scrimmage or just a few yards downfield, and the 49ers have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards after catch in the league this year. Moore could pile up a bunch of short catches to help in PPR formats, but I don’t see him posting a quality fantasy line for you this week.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Marshall has a good chance to return to action this week as he practiced in full on Wednesday, but he’ll likely be doing so with PJ Walker at quarterback, and Marshall averaged just 2.7 catches and 23 yards per game when things were good in this passing game the first 4 weeks of the season. I can’t see him putting up a productive game his first week back. If you get him into any lineups, you’re just crossing your fingers that he scores a TD.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): There is a small amount of upside this week for Schwartz with Odell Beckham Jr. essentially booted off the team. In the first two games of the season with OBJ sidelined with injury, Schwartz played right around 50% of the offensive snaps and saw a handful of deep targets. The concern here is that Schwartz still may find himself 4th on the WR depth chart this week if Donovan Peoples-Jones is able to return from injury. In week 1, Rashard Higgins played just 4 offensive snaps, but he’s been a fixture in 3-WR sets since, and Schwartz isn’t going to play much over Jarvis Landry or Peoples-Jones. If DPJ sits, Schwartz has some dart throw upside in the deepest of leagues and DFS tournaments, but otherwise he should be avoided.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Palmer scored his first career TD last week, but he also played the fewest snaps he’s seen since week 4. Don’t be fooled by the touchdown. There’s no change here for Palmer. He remains waiver fodder.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Tremble is playing enough to get mentioned every week but isn’t seeing enough usage to warrant lineup consideration. He’s seen 12 targets come his way over the last 4 games but hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in any game and found the end zone just once. There isn’t any reason to expect that to change against a New England defense that’s allowing the 3rd-fewest TE points per game.
Rookies on Bye in week 9: RB Jaret Patterson, WAS, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR Dyami Brown, WAS, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Moore’s playing time in week 8 was less than encouraging (on the field for just 36% of the offensive snaps in a game Corey Davis missed), but what he did with his playing time is worth some attention. The rookie had his best game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards, and throwing in a 4-yard rush for good measure. I’d be surprised if his playing time doesn’t tick up a bit this week, and the Colts have struggled to defend undersized speed receivers who play on the outside. Brandin Cooks posted 9-89 against them. Tyler Lockett put up 4-100-2. Marquise Brown posted 9-125-2. Moore will likely need Mike White to take a few deep shots to cash in this week the way those guys have against the Colts, but the opportunity is there for Moore to improve on what he did a week ago.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The return of Tyrod Taylor to the lineup should open up the deeper passing game this week, and the Dolphins allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and have allowed the 2nd-most air yards on completed passes this year. Taylor’s return and the matchup are certainly more beneficial for WR1 Brandin Cooks than for Nico, but there is plenty of DFS upside for Collins in a game that has some shootout potential. Collins costs just $3,600 on DraftKings.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): I list Jordan here more as a guy to stash in deeper leagues than to start this week. He was active for the first time all season in week 8 thanks to Pharaoh Brown being out with injury, and he made the most of the opportunity with a 3-41-1 line on 4 targets. The Texans’ season is going nowhere fast, and at some point, it will behoove them to see what they have in the youngster after he caught for 72 yards and nearly a touchdown per game at Miami last year. Jordan does have sneaky DFS appeal this week if Brown misses another game. The Dolphins rank 26th in pass defense DVOA, and Jordan costs the minimum on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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