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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the fantasy semifinals for most leagues, and it’s going to be a challenging week to set lineups. Frigid weather across the US this Christmas could result in some low-scoring NFL games, and some low-scoring fantasy matchups to go with it. For the season, the average NFL game has seen an average of 44.2 combined points scored, but this week 10 of the 16 games have Vegas over/under totals below 42 points. We could see limited passing game production in those games affected by the temperature, especially the games where the wind will be a problem like in Chicago and Cleveland. Keep that in mind this week as you set your lineups and pay attention to up-to-date weather reports on game day.

Week 15 was a disappointing one for the rookies in general. The standouts came from unexpected places. The highest scoring rookie QB was Brock Purdy. At running back, the top two were Tyler Allgeier and Jaylen Warren. Jahan Dotson and Rashid Shaheed paced the rookie receivers, and the top rookie tight ends were Peyton Hendershot and Teagan Quitoriano. Raise your hand if you had any of those guys other than Purdy in your lineups. Can you go back to the rookies who had been more reliable prior to last week with your season on the line – Kenneth Walker III, Garrett Wilson, Isiah Pacheco, Christian Watson, Bam Knight, Greg Dulcich, etc.? That’s what I’m here to talk about this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s jump into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 16: @KC): Walker returned from injury last week and just barely cracked the top-24 PPR backs for the week, but that was an encouraging result given the matchup he was facing. His 79 scrimmage yards were the 2^nd-highest total the 49ers have allowed to any running back this year, and Kansas City is a much more favorable matchup this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game this year, and Walker has been a top-24 finisher in each of the last 8 games that he’s been healthy.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Wilson has 75+ yards in 6 of the last 7 games, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The floor is definitely lower for Wilson with Zach Wilson at QB, but Zach started 4 of those last 7 games. The ceiling here is too high to sit Garrett if you have him just because Zach Wilson is at QB. The bigger concern in this game is the weather. It’s going to be cold, rainy, and windy on Thursday night in New Jersey, but again the ceiling is still here. You’d better have a stud ahead of him if you sit Garrett in this one. The matchup is very good, and Wilson has been producing in spite of Zach in most of their recent games together.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Purdy has continued to impress since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s accounted for 7 TDs in nearly 3 full games under center and he finished as the QB8 and QB14 in the last two weeks. There have been some concerning underlying numbers – Purdy’s on-target % according to Pro-Football Reference would rank behind 26 of 33 qualified QBs despite an average target depth of just 6 yards, and Purdy was bailed out last week by a dropped interception – but the 49ers play-calling and surrounding talent continue to put Purdy in positions to succeed, and he’s doing enough to take advantage. The Commanders’ pass defense has been solid lately, allowing 200 or fewer passing yards in their last 5 games, and allowing no more than 1 TD in each of the last 4, but I expect the game plan here to continue to give Purdy easy opportunities. He doesn’t have enough ceiling to be a QB1, but he should be a solid QB2 option again this week, even in a tougher matchup.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Pacheco didn’t have the blow-up game I was hoping for last week against the Texans thanks to a fumble lost and zero TDs, but he topped 80 scrimmage yards for the 6^th-straight game and gets another silver-platter matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 2^nd-most RB points per game and has coughed up over 120 rushing yards per week to opposing backs. Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week in a game where the Chiefs may opt to run more than usual in frigid temperatures. Kansas City has the highest implied point total of the week at 29 points.

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Bam had a disappointing game last week against a resurgent Detroit run defense, totaling just 23 yards on 13 carries. The sledding gets a little easier this week against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 14^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-most points per game to the position. The weather on Thursday night will be wet and windy, so both teams will likely look to run the ball more than usual. Knight has handled at least 59% of the team’s rushing attempts in each of the last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead rusher in this one. He’s battled an ankle injury in practice this week, but he practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go. I like him as a back-end RB2 this week in what should be a more run-heavy game plan than we typically see from the Jets.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): White was a big letdown last week. He handled a reasonable 12 touches, but only one of those was a reception and he totaled just 43 scrimmage yards. It appears that Fournette is back in the 1A position in this backfield, but his advantage over White isn’t a substantial one. Both backs remain very involved. The Bucs are a touchdown favorite this week against a sputtering Cardinals team that will be starting its 3^rd-string QB. Arizona is in the bottom 10 in the NFL at limiting RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, and allows the 8^th-most running back points per game. Rachaad could see extended opportunities in the 2^nd half if the Bucs are playing with the lead, and I expect him to get back into the RB2 range this week in a plus matchup.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): This game looks to have the most shootout potential on the slate this week thanks to injuries and weather affecting other matchups. Green Bay will need to throw against a Miami defense that is much softer against the pass than against the run - they rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and 11^th in run defense DVOA. Miami’s aggressive defense probably is more favorable for Romeo Doubs than Watson, as he’ll get some of the shorter throws to beat a blitzing defense, but Rodgers has made a point of getting Watson involved in the red zone. Prior to last Monday’s game, Watson had scored 8 TDs in the previous 4 contests, and on Monday Rodgers threw the ball Watson’s way 3 times in the red zone, and twice from the 5-yard line or closer. Watson’s TD upside gives him too much ceiling to leave benched unless you have great players ahead of him.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): London has posted back-to-back impressive performances, tallying 6-95 on 12 targets and 7-70 on 11 targets over his last two games despite having a different QB for each. They are the only games where he’s topped 50 yards since week 3. It’s a promising development for the rookie for the stretch run. He topped a 40% target share and 40% air yardage share in each game and figures to continue being the focal point of the passing game moving forward. The Ravens have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but London will likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in coverage – Humphrey ranks 17^th out of 122 cornerbacks in coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. We know Atlanta wants to run the ball a lot, and the matchup could be tough, but London should be a good bet for at least 7-8 targets. I wouldn’t expect a week-winning performance, but London should be a solid WR3 option this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAR): Dulcich face-planted last weekend in a prime matchup with Brett Rypien under center, but I’d advocate going back to the well again this week if you don’t have a clear top-8 option at the position. Dulcich continues to post route participation rates of 80% or better, he gets Russell Wilson back this week, and he’s playing indoors instead of in the unforgiving elements that others will be dealing with. The Rams have been above average at limiting tight ends this year, allowing the 12^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve given up a tight end score in 5 of their last 8 games. Dulcich garnered 8 targets in each of Russ’s last 2 starts. I’d trust him as a fringe top-10 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Allgeier had been quietly very effective rushing the ball for the last month and a half, and he decided to be a bit louder about it in week 15. The rookie piled up 139 yards and a TD on just 17 carries against the Saints last week. It was his best game of the season, but it was also the 5^th time in his last 6 games that he’s run for 50+ yards and averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry. You know the Falcons want to run a lot, and Allgeier has been tough to slow down. With that said, I don’t love the matchup here this week. Since the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith ahead of week 9, only 1 running back has rushed for 50+ yards against them (Nick Chubb last week). Allgeier is still splitting this backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson – his 50% share of the team rushing attempts last week was the highest mark he’s hit in any game C-Patt has been active for – and the Ravens allow the 3^rd-fewest RB rushing yards per game. Allgeier has just 6 receptions in the last 6 games, so he isn’t going to be a factor in the passing game. You’re going to need a touchdown to get a useful week from the rookie in this one, and Atlanta’s implied point total is just 15 points.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Robinson has rushed for 85+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but he’ll be hard-pressed to do it again this week against the 49ers. Positive or neutral game scripts have been a big part of Robinson’s sustained success, and the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs this week against a 49er defense that has allowed the fewest running back points per game. Only one running back has rushed for 50+ yards against the 49ers since week 6, and none has run for 60 yards against them all year. Robinson is going to need a touchdown to return value in this game, and the Commanders have an implied Vegas point total of just 16. This is a week where a lot of teams should lean on the ground game due to bad weather. There are several better options to look to this week if you’re using a grinder RB who doesn’t catch many passes.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Dotson has been coming on in the last couple of weeks, scoring a TD and finishing as a top-18 WR in both meetings with the Giants on either side of the team’s week 14 bye. This week he faces the 49ers, who are a dominant defense against every position except wide receiver. The 49ers have allowed the 13^th-most wide receiver points per game, but the guys who have produced against them have mostly done it with volume. Only 5 receivers all year have reached even a dozen PPR points against San Francisco without seeing at least 9 targets to get there, and 4 of those 5 got in the end zone to do it. Dotson can’t be relied on for volume. He’s topped 6 targets just twice all year, so you’re going to need him to find the end zone for the 3^rd straight game to get useful value here. The Commanders’ implied total of just 16 points means that Dotson isn’t a great TD bet. I’d view him as a WR4 this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickens has averaged a robust 26.2 yards per catch over the last two weeks, but his volume has been too inconsistent to trust with your season on the line. The Steelers have leaned into running the football in recent weeks, and the weather for this game will likely cause them to lean even further into it, with negative wind chills and 25 mph winds in the forecast. In normal circumstances, this would be a great spot for Pickens - the Raiders rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA – but it's hard to envision the rookie continuing to get by on long-distance catches in an environment where it’ll be hard to throw deep. He’s got enough ceiling that you could start him if you’re desperate, but the floor here scares me.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Shaheed was in a route on a whopping 95% of the team’s passing dropbacks last weekend, and this week both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out with injury. Shaheed could serve as the team’s de-facto WR1, but I’m not sure that’s going to lead to a spike game in harsh weather conditions in Cleveland. Shaheed has made his living this season on big plays, and it’s hard to envision any big pass plays hitting in 30 mph winds and snow. Maybe Shaheed hits a big play on a designed rushing attempt or special teams return, but any pass catchers will be dicey options in what should be a strange game. I think we could see a ton of Taysom Hill in this game for the Saints. I wouldn’t want to roll with Shaheed in these conditions.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 16: @Car.): Williams didn’t see a noticeable leap in playing time last week, running a route on just 16% of the team passing dropbacks in their win vs. the Jets.  Jameson earned just one target, although that one target likely would’ve been a 45-yard touchdown if Jared Goff hadn’t underthrown it, but that’s what Williams is at this point. He’s a dart throw at a big play that’s really only an option in DFS formats and the deepest of leagues. The Panthers are a worse pass defense than the Jets, ranking 21^st in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve only allowed 3 completions of 40+ yards all season.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Burks should be back this week after missing the past two games with a concussion, but he returns to Malik Willis under center. Willis has averaged just 13 pass attempts per game in his two starts this season, so even if the Titans don’t ease Burks back in, there isn’t going to be enough passing volume to rely on him in fantasy leagues this week. I’d be surprised if he gets to 5 targets with Willis under center, and the Texans allow the 4^th-fewest WR points per game.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): The Texans were the last opponent to hold Okonkwo under 30 receiving yards back in week 8, and while Chig’s role is not the same today as it was then, Malik Willis returning to the starting lineup makes it likely the Texans hold Okonkwo under 30 again. Okonkwo had been building steam with Tannehill. He had been targeted at least 5 times in each of the last 4 games and scored 10+ PPR points in each of the last 3, but passing volume will be non-existent with Willis back under center. Malik completed a total of 11 passes in his two previous starts. Okonkwo did haul in a 48-yard catch in one of those two starts, but he has no floor if he doesn’t hit a big play. That’s too much risk for me in the league semifinals.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickett should be good-to-go this week and return to the starting lineup, but his outlook isn’t any different than what I described last week. He’s still got no more than 1 total TD in any of his last 8 full games played, has hit 15+ fantasy points just once all year, and has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 of his last 5 full games. The Raiders look like a tasty matchup on paper, allowing the 7^th-most QB points per game, but the 4 highest point totals they allowed to the position all happened before their week 6 bye. No QB in their last 9 games has accounted for more than 2 touchdowns, and only one QB in the last 5 weeks has accounted for more than 1 score. Pickett has a little more yardage upside than we’ve seen in recent weeks (the Raiders have only held one QB all year below 200 passing yards – Mac Jones last week), but his lack of ceiling makes him a fringe QB2 again.

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Ridder’s first start looked pretty similar to what we’ve seen from Marcus Mariota this season – Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts and 34 rushing yards per game in his starts this year, and Ridder was at 26 attempts and 38 rushing yards in his debut – but Ridder wasn’t nearly as efficient throwing the football as Mariota has been. Ridder completed just 50% of his passes (lower than all but one single-game mark for Mariota), and he threw for just 97 yards. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA and hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to rush for 30+ yards since week 4. The rushing potential of Ridder means that you could throw him into a lineup as your QB2 if you’re desperate, but the floor here is low in Ridder’s 2^nd career start. I’d rather start the Ravens’ defense this week than Ridder as a QB2.

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury and will spend the rest of the season on IR, so it should be Willis under center the rest of the way. Willis made two starts earlier in the season, including one against the Texans, and they totaled just 9.6 fantasy points in those two games. He completed just 11 total passes while Derrick Henry piled up 49 carries. Willis could go out and run for 80 yards and still not post a useful fantasy day with the kind of passing volume I’d expect here. Willis has arguably the highest ceiling of any of the 3 QBs listed in this section, but easily the lowest floor.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Mason almost made good on my prediction last week that he would get into the end zone, but the Seahawks managed to run him out of bounds at the 2-yard line at the end of a 55-yard run. That breakaway run helped Mason end up with his best rushing total of the season, but his overall usage is troubling for his outlook moving forward. I expected Mason could see a spike in usage with Deebo Samuel not stealing rushing touches, but instead the 49ers leaned more into Christian McCaffrey handling a workhorse role. Mason played just 7 snaps, with most of them coming in the 4^th quarter with the game decided. The 49ers face off this week with a Washington defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Mason has set a new career-high in rushing yards in each of the last 5 weeks, but I don’t see a path to him making it 6 straight. 

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): There was excitement for both rookie backs last week with Damien Harris ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson very questionable ahead of the game, but Stevenson dashed those hopes when he ended up active. The Patriots eased Rhamondre in early, but he dominated touches in the second half and overtime and finished with 168 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The two rookies still totaled 12 combined touches, but Strong is the one who stood out for fantasy purposes with 3 targets and receptions. Both are bad options this week even if Damien Harris is out again, as they’ll get limited touches against a Cincy defense that allows the 13^th-fewest RB points per game. Damien Harris is a free agent at season’s end, so Strong could be worth a speculative add in dynasty leagues where he’s still available. He could be the RB2 behind Rhamondre next season.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Williams has just 8 carries and 3 targets over the last 3 games. Cam Akers has been re-established as the Rams’ RB1, and there isn’t enough playing time for Williams to be considered for lineups.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Despite being the Cardinals’ RB2, Ingram has just 11 carries for 32 yards in total over the past 6 weeks. This is a one-man backfield.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Pierce’s production has been inconsistent from week to week this year, even since he’s stepped into more of a full-time role with Jeff Saturday in charge, and he’ll be working with a new QB this week in Nick Foles. Pierce has averaged 4.3 targets per game over the last 6 games, but he’s topped 30 yards just once in that span and the Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Even if Foles provides a boost to the passing game, Pierce isn’t a good bet to make for lineups this week.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Thornton has now run a route on more than 90% of the Patriots' passing dropbacks in each of the past two games, and he has 5 catches for 49 yards on 9 targets to show for it. Mac Jones has regressed as a passer this year with Matt Patricia calling the plays, and the Bengals rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. On top of that, Thornton was added to the injury report on Wednesday. A mid-week addition to the injury report is never a good sign. I wouldn’t expect a full-time role for the rookie this week, and we’ve already seen him not produce with a full-time workload.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. NO): Bell was inactive last weekend with a toe injury, and I’d expect his usage to be limited this week even if he plays. This game currently has the lowest Vegas over/under in 14 years at just 31.5. This is not a game where you should be thinking about using ancillary parts like Bell in any format.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Moore’s route participation rate has decreased in each of the last 3 weeks, reaching just 19% last Sunday. He’s scored just 4.1 PPR points in total over those 3 games, and while the Seahawks' defense isn’t good, they’ve allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. There’s nothing here this week.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Jones played a season-high 68% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last week with Chase Claypool inactive and Equanimeous St. Brown leaving early with a concussion. He turned that playing time into 2 touches for 3 yards. The weather in Chicago this weekend isn’t going to be conducive to big passing numbers, the Bears throw the ball less than any other team in the league, and the Bills rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA. There isn’t a good reason to consider Jones this week even if ESB and Claypool are both out again. Even the return of N’Keal Harry (who practiced in full Tuesday) could push Velus back to the bench.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): In case you missed the update, Olave has been ruled out for this week’s game against the Browns, along with Jarvis Landry.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): McBride followed up his best game of the season in week 14 with an even better game in week 15, tallying 4-55 on 5 targets against the Broncos. It’s a promising sign for the rookie, and the Bucs have allowed 3 tight end scores in their last 4 games, but Trace McSorley at QB makes McBride too risky to roll the dice on outside of DFS formats. For what it’s worth, 2 catches and 43 yards of McBride’s output last Sunday came after McSorley entered the game, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Woods’ breakout Monday Night Football performance in week 12 seems like ages ago after he played less than 25% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games. The switch to Nick Foles at QB throws even more uncertainty into where the Colts’ passing targets will go. Anything more than 5 PPR points would be a positive result for Woods.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): In the two games where Tyler Huntley has played more than 70% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps this year, Likely has averaged 3 catches for 24 yards on 3.5 targets. Atlanta allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game this season, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on Likely substantially outperforming those averages. Mark Andrews is much more likely to be the beneficiary. I’d expect Likely to be back in that 5-6 PPR point range at best.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Ferguson should return this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion, but he’s topped 15 yards just twice all year. Hendershot has scored a touchdown on 3 of his last 7 offensive touches, but those have come over the course of 8 games. Both players remain just TD dart throws for DFS lineups.

Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Zamir White, LV, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Cole Turner, WAS, TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Patriots haven’t even hinted at Zappe possibly starting this week, but there has been plenty of noise among Pats fans that it’s time to make the switch. Mac Jones has been really struggling over the last few weeks, even without considering his missed tackle of Chandler Jones. Mac had a season-low 42% completion percentage last weekend against a mediocre Raiders pass defense. If he struggles again this week (a likely outcome against a ‘fairly tough’ Bengals’ defense), we could see Zappe starting in week 16 in a must-win game against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game this season. If you’re in a superflex semifinal this week, and you’re relying on a one-game spot starter like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, or Tyler Huntley, you could possibly get ahead of the curve for your week 17 QB2 by picking up Zappe now.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 16: @Chi.): The Bills are not likely to deploy their usual high-flying passing offense on Saturday in Chicago in frigid, windy conditions. Cook has been a bigger part of the rushing attack in recent weeks, handling 38.3% of the team’s running back rushing attempts over the last 3 weeks, and the Bears rank just 27^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most RB rushing yards per game. If the Bills lean on the run game, Cook should be in line to be a borderline RB2/RB3. He’s finished with 10+ PPR points in two of the last 3 games.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): The Steelers have transitioned to being a more run-heavy football team over the last 6 weeks or so, and for much of that the prime beneficiary was Najee Harris, but the Steelers made a push to get Warren more involved last week. Najee Harris did pop up on the injury report this week with a hip injury, but Warren was involved right away on the first drive last week, so this shift doesn’t seem injury related. Warren finished the game with a season-high 11 carries for 38 yards and a TD and hauled in an 11-yard reception. This week he faces a Las Vegas defense that allows the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. If his increased usage carries over to this week, Warren has some intriguing DFS upside at just $4,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. There’s not enough usage here for Warren to get slotted into normal lineups though.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): The Packers didn’t hesitate to get Doubs worked back into the offense in his first game back since week 9 on Monday night. Doubs didn’t play a full-time role, handling just 23 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 5 of those snaps (including one on Green Bay’s third play from scrimmage) and finished with 5 catches for 55 yards. I’d expect his playing time to go up this week with the Packers fighting for a playoff spot. Miami ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA, and this is one of the few outdoor games this week where the weather shouldn’t be a problem. The Dolphins blitz at the 7^th-highest rate in the league, which leads to quicker, shorter throws, and that favors Doubs (his aDOT is 3 yards lower than Allen Lazard or Christian Watson). I like Doubs’ chances at another solid game to build on what he did last week. Something like 6-70 would be a positive development.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Otton’s Cam Brate streak survived another week. He still hasn’t eclipsed 7 PPR points in any game that Cam Brate has been active for (he put up 10+ in 4 of the 5 games Brate missed), but I like his chances to break that streak this week. Arizona has allowed 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a tight end in 7 of their past 8 games, and Otton is the tight end on the Bucs that is likeliest to take advantage. He’s still risky for playoff lineups, but there is some upside for DFS lineups or if you’re in a real pinch in a season-long league.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): Bellinger has some added upside this week as he gets the most favorable matchup he’s faced since returning from his eye injury. The rookie is playing a full-time role with a route participation rate above 80% in two of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 4 targets per game in those contests against good tight end defenses. This week he faces the Vikings, who allow the 13^th-most tight end points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Bellinger has a real chance to creep into the top-12 tight ends this week despite averaging just 16 yards per game in the last 3 weeks.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend and advance to your title game. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the final week in the regular season for most fantasy leagues. All your hard work this season may boil down to one game. Maybe you’re still fighting for a playoff spot, or if you’re lucky, fighting for a playoff bye. If you still need a win this week, the NFL schedulers haven’t made it easy on you. There are 6 NFL teams on a bye in week 14, so you may have to get by without a weekly starter like Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Terry McLaurin, or Alvin Kamara to get that win. You may be digging deeper than you want to for replacements, and there may be some less heralded rookies who can help…or maybe not.

It's a tough week for the rookies too with those byes. Several rookies who have been viable weekly options are on byes this week – guys like Chris Olave, Christian Watson and Brian Robinson Jr – and a couple others (Treylon Burks & Kenneth Walker III) are in danger of missing the week with injury. Dameon Pierce’s struggles continued to a degree last week, and George Pickens had his worst game of the season, but it’s not all ugly for the rookies. Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight, Isiah Pacheco and Cade Otton continued their breakouts, and there could be more good things to come for those players going forward. I’m here once again to take a look at every relevant rookie for week 14, and help you navigate what to do with them in your lineups to put you in the best position to come away with another W.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 14…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Walker is listed as questionable for this week. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but if he’s able to play he should be in your lineup. The Panthers aren’t a defense to be afraid of, allowing the 9^th-most RB points per game and ranking 22^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It took an injury to prevent Walker from tallying his 8^th straight game with 12+ PPR points, and I expect him to get back on track this weekend if he’s able to suit up. He’s a safe RB2 if healthy.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The QB change in New York has been just what the doctor ordered to get Wilson’s season going again. In two games with Mike White under center, Wilson has put up at least a 27% target share, 35% air yardage share, and 24 PPR points in each game. Wilson managed to put up 8 catches for 92 yards on 9 targets in the first meeting with the Bills with Zach Wilson at QB back in week 9, and Mike White should continue to look his way a lot to try and keep pace with Buffalo on Sunday. Buffalo ranks an impressive 7^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 11^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers. They’ve allowed 110+ yards to the opposing WR1 in 3 of their last 4 games (to Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, and Amon-Ra St. Brown). Wilson is a safe WR2 with a top-5 ceiling even in what looks like a tougher matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lead Toward Starting:

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Bam Knight has come seemingly out of nowhere to post back-to-back top-24 finishes (one of them a top-12 finish) in his first two games of NFL action. Head coach Robert Saleh has said that Knight will remain in the lead back role this week, even if Michael Carter is able to return from injury. The matchup isn’t an easy one – the Bills rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 10^th-fewest RB points per game – but the Jets were able to run for over 120 yards in the first meeting with Buffalo, and the Bills’ defense isn’t at full strength. Von Miller is officially out for the season, and DT Jordan Phillips and LB Matt Milano are both not practicing as of Wednesday. Knight is close to a lock for 15+ touches, and he should push for a RB2 finish again with so many top backs off for the week on byes.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): The numbers for Pacheco have been strong over the past month. He’s topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 straight games and scored a TD in each of the last two. There are still some concerns about his underlying usage, but the bottom line is that he’s the clear lead back for one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and that makes him an RB2 option just about every week. Most of the usage concerns for Pacheco stem from a lack of passing game usage and goal-line touches. It seemed that Pacheco had turned a corner in week 12 when he got a dozen red zone carries, but all of that happened with a double-digit lead. Last weekend, with a worse game script, Pacheco’s 8-yard TD in the 3^rd quarter was his only touch in the red zone. Game script should be positive again this week with the Chiefs 9.5-point favorites. Denver has limited RBs to the 9^th-fewest fantasy points per game, but they’re just 17^th in run defense DVOA. They’re far from impenetrable. 3 backs they’ve faced in the last 5 weeks have topped 100 yards on the ground. I wouldn’t call Pacheco a ‘must-start’ if you’ve got solid backs ahead of him, but he’s a strong RB2 option this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Cook rebounded from a poor fantasy day on Thanksgiving in a big way last week. He was arguably the focal point of the offense against the Patriots in week 13, tallying more rushing attempts than Devin Singletary for the first time all year, and was 3^rd on the team with 6 targets, just 3 fewer than Stefon Diggs. He finished the week as the PPR RB13 without scoring a TD. Cook has been more efficient than Singletary when given opportunities, and the Bills would be wise to continue to give him the ball. Buffalo has been inconsistent in the last few weeks when it comes to their run/pass splits, alternating between being a run-heavy and pass-heavy team in subsequent games. They went pass-heavy against the Vikings and Lions and run-heavy against the Browns and Patriots. Cook was a major beneficiary in the games where they went run-heavy. For what it’s worth, the Jets are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, though they’re a solid defense overall. New York ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA, and their outside corners DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner have been phenomenal this year. They rank 11^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed a double-digit fantasy day (half-PPR) to 4 backs in their last 3 games. The Bills’ running backs didn’t have great success against the Jets the first time around, but I think Buffalo has found something in their ground game in recent weeks and will have success this time. Cook’s role is very much in flux this week, but I think the increased usage continues, and he finishes as a top-24 back this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Pickens was a huge disappointment last weekend, putting up just 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 targets, and making a scene on the sideline out of frustration with his usage (or lack thereof). The rookie downplayed the significance of the blowup in interviews after the game, but I think he gets the squeaky wheel treatment this week. The Ravens have struggled to limit wide receivers this season, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, and with so many players on byes this week, I think Pickens gets fed enough to post a useful week. Be warned, I don’t think he’s going to put up a monster game here, but 60-70 yards feels like a strong possibility. That ceiling goes up if Diontae Johnson misses this game. Johnson isn’t practicing as of Thursday.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. KC): Last Sunday was a banner day for Dulcich with the top two pass catching options banged up for the Broncos. Jerry Jeudy returned from a multi-week ankle injury and played a limited role (41% route participation rate), and Courtland Sutton suffered a hamstring injury and left the game early, and Dulcich made the most of his expanded opportunity. The rookie tallied 6 catches for 85 yards on 8 targets, good enough for a PPR TE2 finish for the week. It was the 4^th time Dulcich has finished as a top-12 TE in the 7 games he’s played this year, and he’s got a good chance to make it 5 of 8 this week even if Sutton is able to play. If Sutton sits, the ceiling gets even higher for Dulcich. He was used more like a wide receiver last Sunday, spending 54.5% of his snaps lined up in the slot, and he has the 3^rd-highest air yardage total of any tight end since his debut. Dulcich is a top-10 option at tight end this week against a KC defense that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): With only 26 teams in action this week, I can’t just flat out say that you know to sit Kenny Pickett if you’re in a 2-QB league. You might not have any other choice in those formats. Just know that he belongs toward the bottom of the list of those 26 starting QBs in terms of fantasy outlook for this week. The matchup seems favorable on paper, with the Ravens allowing the 12^th-most QB points per game, but Pickett hasn’t shown an ability to cash in on good matchups this season. The rookie has just one top-15 finish all season and hasn’t accounted for more than 1 TD in any of his last 8 starts. The Steelers’ offense as a whole has been better in recent weeks, but that’s been due to a renewed commitment to running the football and not putting too much on Pickett’s shoulders. The rookie has gone 4 straight games without a turnover, but he’s only thrown for 200 yards in one of those games. If you’re looking for 12-15 points from your QB2, Pickett will probably get you that. If you’re looking for more, you should look somewhere else.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Leonard Fournette returned to action on Monday night, and White returned to a full-on timeshare role with Lenny. Fournette played 15 more snaps than White against the Saints, but only out-touched him by one (16-to-15). 15 touches isn’t a bad day for a running back, and White did finish the week as the PPR RB10 on the strength of a late TD, but I don’t feel good about his chances of repeating the strong performance in this one. White has largely been inefficient this season, ranking just 41^st in yards per touch out of 52 qualified running backs. He also faces a San Francisco defense this week that has allowed the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The 49ers haven’t allowed 50+ rushing yards to a back since week 6. They haven’t allowed 40+ receiving yards to a back since week 5, and they’ve allowed only one back to find the end zone in their last 5 games. If White is only going to get half of the workload, his only path to relevance this week will be finding the end zone or piling up a bunch of receptions. I don’t like his chances to score a TD. There could be a little bit more hope on the receiving front – the 49ers have allowed 7 receptions each to Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler this season, and 6 to Alvin Kamara – but even a 5 or 6 catch game might only get White into low-end RB2 range. You might not have better options this week but be warned this is probably a floor game for the rookie.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 14: @Dal.): Pierce was a bit more effective on the ground last weekend than he’d been in the two games prior, rushing for 73 yards on 18 carries, and ranking in the top-24 PPR finishers for the week. That performance came against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL. Things get much tougher this week. The Cowboys rank 8^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed just the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. They’re also an absurd 17-point favorite. The Texans may abandon the run early in this one, and Pierce has been ceding garbage time work to Dare Ogunbowale in the last couple weeks. There is very real risk here that Pierce puts up another 5-point dud. He’s still almost certain to see double-digit touches, so he’s an RB3 at worst, but be aware of the downside if you’re considering him.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): It was Mason who emerged as the 49ers new #2 running back with Elijah Mitchell done for the year, which makes him a viable fantasy option in the 49ers run-heavy attack. They’ll likely try to be even more run-heavy with Brock Purdy now playing QB, but McCaffrey dominated the high-value touches last weekend, and likely will going forward. Mason ran a route on just 8% of the team’s passing dropbacks and saw 0% of the short down & distance snaps. If CMC is going to get all the passing work, and all the short yardage/goal line work, it’ll be an uphill fight for Mason to put up fantasy production. He was exceptional last week, putting up 51 yards on 8 carries, but that was good enough to finish as just the RB38 in non-PPR scoring. The Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game, so this is an especially bad week to plug in Mason and hope for success on limited opportunities.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 14: vs. LV): The Raiders allow the 6^th-most RB points per game, so any RB who has a meaningful role against them should be in consideration for fantasy lineups, but I don’t have the stomach to rely on Williams this week, especially if you need a win. The Rams’ backfield usage has been an enigma all season. They seemingly have a different lead back each week, often due to injuries, but in some cases with less rhyme or reason. Kyren had his turn as lead back in week 12, handling 14 touches against the Chiefs, but he was down to just 3 touches last Sunday as Cam Akers was re-inserted into the lead role. If you’re confident in a bounce-back in usage for Williams this week, he’s got upside as a RB3 in a good matchup, but I’m not confident in that bounce-back.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Burks suffered what looked like a nasty concussion on his TD catch last Sunday. He draws a favorable matchup this week with the Jaguars, who allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but it remains very questionable whether he’ll clear the concussion protocol in time to play or not. If he’s able to get cleared, he’ll do so after sitting for most of the week of practice (he’s not practicing as of Thursday), and that could result in him being less involved in the game plan. Burks has big play upside if he’s active and you want to take a swing here, but I’d exercise caution before firing him up.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Otton was the PPR TE1 last week, and I would probably sit him this week if you have another reasonable option. Otton got an unexpected boost on Monday night when Cam Brate was a surprise inactive due to an illness. It resulted in Otton playing 82% of the team’s offensive snaps, and even with all that playing time, he didn’t make much of an impact until two frantic scoring drives at the end of the game for a come-from-behind win. Nearly 70% of Otton’s fantasy points were tallied in those last two drives, and the line that made him THE TE1 for the week was just 6-28-1. It was a terrible week for top TE performances. Brate is practicing in full this week, and Otton hasn’t scored even 7 PPR points in any game where Brate has been active. He’s scored 10+ in 4 of the 5 games that Brate has missed. I would assume Brate returns this week, and the 49ers have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE fantasy points per game. Only Tyler Higbee and Travis Kelce have tallied 30+ receiving yards against them from the tight end position. Steer clear of Otton this week.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. NE): The fact that I’m listing McBride as a ‘borderline’ option at all speaks to just how dire the TE landscape is right now. McBride has been in a full-time role since Zach Ertz got hurt. He’s had a 70% route participation rate or higher in 3 straight games, but he’s totaled just 22 yards on 8 targets in those 3 games. The Patriots have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game but starting McBride would be just a shot in the dark that he gets on track.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): The Steelers have shown a renewed commitment to running the ball, but it’s meant a resurgence for Najee Harris, who has posted his 3 highest rushing totals of the season over the last 4 weeks. Warren has been battling a hamstring injury that kept him out for most of weeks 11 & 12, and he came back to just 3 touches on 13 snaps last Sunday. He should at least move back ahead of Benny Snell this week and play a bit more than he did last weekend, but the Ravens have given up just the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. Warren won’t have a big enough role behind Najee to be a good option in that matchup.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): After back-to-back 6-target games for Moore, the bottom fell out last week for the rookie. JuJu Smith-Schuster was back to his usual role after being eased back from his concussion a few weeks ago, but that wasn’t the biggest issue for Moore. Skyy played just about the same snap share as he had in the two prior weeks, but he didn’t earn a single target after earning one on nearly 40% of his routes run over those two prior weeks. Moore’s limited playing team means there will be weeks like this where just doesn’t get involved. The Chiefs have too many weapons for everyone to produce every week. I wouldn’t roll the dice on him getting back on track this week against a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Thornton has been under a 40% snap share in each of the past 3 weeks and has just 3 catches for 36 yards in those games combined. Four other Patriot wide receivers had a higher route participation rate than Thornton against the Bills. There’s always the threat that Tyquan takes the top off the defense, but I’d rather not start him and have to pray that he does.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 14: @Cin.): I’ve talked up Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, but Watson’s debut put that notion to bed quickly. Bell had been seeing his role grow in the weeks leading up Deshaun’s return, but inexplicably the Browns chose to deploy Demetric Felton as their primary slot receiver last Sunday. Bell played just 3 snaps while Felton played 38. Felton wasn’t targeted even once, but he was on the field a ton. It could just be a product of facing a bad Texans team, or just a one game blip, but either way you can’t plug Bell into lineups anywhere for this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 14: @Pit.): The tight end pool is a dumpster fire outside of the top few options, but don’t be fooled into thinking Likely is in play after his 4-catch game last week. 3-4 weekly targets is pretty the most you can reasonably hope for while Mark Andrews is healthy. That’s not enough to take a chance on Likely against a middling Steelers’ defense.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): There may be some DFS upside here with the Cowboys an absurd 17-point favorite against the Texans. All the Cowboys’ backups could get some run in this game, and that includes the pair of backup tight ends. Both players have limited ceilings, so I’d limit exposure to Showdown contests. Hendershot is the much cheaper option ($400 on DraftKings compared to $1,800 for Ferguson), but Ferguson is the one who is on the field more and has seen more opportunities in recent weeks. Ferguson has seen 7 targets come his way in the last 3 games, while Hendershot has just 1 catch and one rushing attempt in the last 4. Both guys are just TD dart throws here anyway, but if this really does turn into the rout that it’s supposed to, it could be Hendershot who benefits since Ferguson may be viewed as more important to the offense (he’s played more than 45% of the offensive snaps in 4 of the last 5 games).

Rookies on Bye: RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Drake London, ATL, WRs Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed, NO, WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB, WR Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR Alec Pierce, IND, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Cole Turner, WAS

Rookies Who May as Well Be on a Bye: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Zamir White, LV, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): The 49ers season appeared to take a catastrophic turn last week when Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off after being tackled awkwardly by a Miami defender. Testing this week has confirmed that Garoppolo is done for at least the regular season, but if Purdy’s play in relief of Jimmy G last week is any indication, the 49ers’ championship hopes might not be completely dead yet. The rookie commanded the huddle and played surprisingly well in his debut. The 49ers were already a run-first offense, and they’ll certainly remain that way with Purdy under center, but when he needed to throw, Purdy was decisive and put the ball on-target. I’m sure there will be bumps along the way as defenses throw different wrinkles at him, and the Bucs are a tougher matchup this week (8^th in pass defense DVOA), but Purdy looks up to the task of guiding the 49ers down the stretch. With the weapons at his disposal, and Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, I’d view Purdy as a weekly mid-range QB2 who could post some spike weeks when things break his way. He shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in 2-QB leagues.

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 14: Bye): Ridder is on a bye this week, but the time to pick him up in redraft superflex leagues is now. He’s likely already rostered in dynasty leagues, but Arthur Smith has hinted that a QB change may be coming after the bye week with the Falcons essentially out of playoff contention. The Atlanta offense will cap his passing upside, but Ridder has a bit of Konami code rushing upside to tap into. If you were starting Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, or Lamar Jackson in a superflex league, Ridder could be a valuable add for the stretch run. Atlanta’s opponents in week 16 & 17 (Baltimore and Arizona) are both in the bottom 12 defenses at limiting QB fantasy points. Arizona is in the bottom 5.

UPDATE: The Falcons have officially named Ridder as their starting QB for week 15

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Firing up Williams this week in season-long leagues is probably off the table for you after seeing the rookie play just 8 snaps and earn 1 target in his debut last week. The team offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was quoted as saying he hopes Williams will have a bigger role moving forward but noted that “I don’t know what that means necessarily for the rep count.” With that kind of tepid endorsement, it’s hard to have much confidence in a breakout game this week for Williams, but the opportunity could be there. The Vikings rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game. Jameson is also a big play waiting to happen – he can burn defenses on the deep ball, or with yards after the catch – and the Vikings have struggled to defend both this year. Minnesota has allowed the 5^th-most air yards on completions this year, and the 2^nd-most yards after catch. It’s mostly just an upside swing if you plug Williams into your DFS lineups this week, but there’s room for a big ceiling if he gets the opportunities.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Okonkwo has now posted a 30+ yard catch in 4 of his last 5 games, and 5 targets in each of the last two, and he could see an expanded receiving role this week if fellow rookie Treylon Burks isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol prior to the game. Okonkwo was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks after Burks left the game and earned a 25% target share. The Jaguars have given up 100+ yards to opposing tight ends in two of their last 3 games, and 80+ in 3 of their last 5. There’s top-5 upside for Okonkwo if Burks is out. He’s more of fringe TE1 streaming option if Burks can suit up.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Bellinger returned from IR last week and immediately stepped back into a full-time role, playing 97% of the offensive snaps and posting an 81% route participation rate. He didn’t put up much production (5-24 on 5 targets), but he was facing off with a Washington defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game. This week he faces an Eagles’ defense than allowed 4-68 to Chig Okonkwo last week in their first game without CJ Gardner-Johnson at safety. The Eagles are still allowing just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game for the year, but they’ve been showing cracks defensively in the middle of the field. Bellinger isn’t more than a fringe streaming option this week for 12-team leagues or deeper, but there’s solid DFS potential here as well with just a $3,300 price tag on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it down to the final two weeks of the fantasy regular season, and hopefully, you’re still alive and kicking for a playoff spot. We get back into byes this week, so you again may have some work to do to field your best lineup. It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for the rookies.

While the top running backs (Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker) have been going through some struggles in recent weeks, it’s been a breakout season for the rookie wide receivers. Christian Watson has scored 6 TDs in the last 3 weeks, Treylon Burks has reached 17 PPR points in back-to-back weeks, Garrett Wilson got back on track as the overall WR2 in week 12 with Mike White at QB, Chris Olave has kept his season humming along, and David Bell and Skyy Moore have seen season-highs in usage in recent weeks as well. November has been a good month to get rookie receivers in your lineups. Will these trends continue into December? That’s what I’m here to talk about.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 13: @LAR): Walker has been abysmal as a rusher in his last two games, totaling just 43 yards on 24 carries, but it hasn’t killed his fantasy value. He finished as the PPR RB18 and RB14 in those two games as he made up for those inefficient carries with a bunch of receiving work in week 10 and two touchdowns in week 12. It could be more of the same this week. The Rams rank 5^th in run defense DVOA, so Walker could have struggles on the ground once again, but with 9 TDs in the last 7 games, Walker’s ceiling is too high to sit him. The Seahawks should have a positive game script as 5.5-point favorites, and Walker has scored 41% of the Seahawks' offensive TDs over those last 7 games. Keep plugging him in as a solid RB2.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Wilson’s fantasy value has come back to life with Zach Wilson riding the pine and Mike White in at QB. He did have some success with Wilson starting, posting 2 games of 17+ PPR points with Zach at QB, but he failed to score 7 PPR points in any of the other 5 games with Zach under center. Garrett’s earned at least 8 targets and caught for 50+ yards in all 4 games that Zach Wilson didn’t start, including two separate 2-TD games. Wilson is the focal point of the passing game no matter who is at QB, and if White doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin this week, the rookie receiver should be a WR2 against a Minnesota defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 13: @TB): Olave continues to be as steady as they come after posting his 9^th double-digit PPR performance in his last 10 games. Last week was a floor performance for Olave, and he finished as the PPR WR38. We haven’t seen the outlandish target totals for Olave lately that we did earlier this season, but he’s still had 44% or more of the team air yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. The return of Jarvis Landry really hasn’t dented his usage. Olave remains the Saints' WR1, and although the Bucs are in the top half of the league in limiting WR points, they’ve had their issues with WR1s. In their last 3 games, they allowed lines of 8-127-1 to Cooper Kupp, 6-71 to DK Metcalf, and 7-94 to Amari Cooper. Olave himself went for 5-80 in the first meeting with Tampa. Something in that range should be a reasonable expectation here for Olave as well.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): It’s been ugly for Pierce in his last two games. He’s been limited to 33 scrimmage yards on 21 touches in games where the Texans were routed by the Commanders and Dolphins. Last Sunday was especially rough to watch for fantasy managers with Pierce on their rosters. Pierce split his usual role with Dare Ogunbowale in the second half after the team fell behind. Ogunbowale scored a 3-yard TD in the 3^rd quarter that could’ve bailed out a lot of folks who started Pierce. The scoreboard outlook for Houston isn’t much better this week – they’re 7-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns – but it’s a much better matchup for Pierce to have rushing success. Cleveland ranks 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. The Browns have allowed 5 different running backs to run for 60+ yards in their last 3 games, all of whom averaged at least 4 yards per carry. I also expect the Browns’ offense to have some struggles early as Deshaun Watson shakes off the rust of not playing for 2 years. If that happens, the Texans may stay in the game a little longer and be able to run it more than they have in recent weeks. This is a good spot for a bounce-back for Pierce, though I understand if you don’t want to take that risk after seeing the floor in the last two weeks.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Warren sat out on Monday night with a hamstring injury, but he’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game in Atlanta and may return to a new starting role after Najee Harris suffered an injury of his own that could keep him out in week 13. If Harris sits, Warren will operate as the lead back against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. Atlanta has allowed 110+ scrimmage yards to the opposing lead back in 4 of their last 5 games. It remains to be seen if Warren will dominate touches to the same degree that Najee Harris typically does, or if Benny Snell or Anthony McFarland will mix in a bit more. Even if Warren shares more of the load, I’d view him as a low-end RB2 this week if Harris sits.

RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Robinson posted his best game of the season last week against a bad Atlanta defense, piling up 125 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. I think he’s got a great chance at back-to-back strong games. The Giants rank 27^th in run defense DVOA and have given up over 140 rushing yards to the opposing backs in each of the last two games (vs. Detroit and Dallas). The game script should allow the Commanders to be able to run the ball (they’re 1.5-point favorites), and that means Robinson should find his way to 15+ carries against a bad run defense. He’s a solid RB2/3 option this week.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): After I talked last week about how rarely the Chiefs hand off the ball when they get close to the goal line, they seemingly went out of their way to give Pacheco goal line opportunities last Sunday. Pacheco totaled 12 carries in the red zone, and 5 from the 5-yard line or closer…but all of them were in the 2^nd half. The game wasn’t exactly out of reach, but a 10-point lead against the Bryce Perkins-led Rams probably felt pretty safe as the team got Pacheco involved in the scoring area. Pacheco didn’t make the most of those opportunities, but he did manage to put one of them into the end zone. He totaled just 19 rushing yards on those 12 red zone totes, and again, only one of those runs had the distance limited by Pacheco reaching the end zone. On the plus side, Pacheco did handle 85% of the team's rushing attempts and earned a target as well. It was his third straight game with 80+ scrimmage yards, and you know the Chiefs will have red zone opportunities. I’d view Pacheco as a low-floor, moderate-ceiling RB2 this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 13: @Chi.): After scoring 6 touchdowns in the last 3 games, what can Christian Watson do for an encore? He should get Aaron Rodgers back under center this week, has reached at least a 30% share of the team air yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and faces a Chicago defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA on Sunday. There’s still a bit of a boom-or-bust element with Watson, especially if Romeo Doubs returns this week, but I think Watson has earned continued opportunities and looks like an upside WR3 to me for this one. Even if Doubs returns, I’d expect the Packers to ease him in with the bye looming in week 14.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Burks has been on a tear in the last two weeks, but he could come back down to earth a bit this week against a good Philly secondary. Even after struggling to contain Christian Watson and Randall Cobb last week, the Eagles have allowed just the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Watson’s and Cobb’s TDs were just the 2^nd and 3^rd WR scores the Eagles have surrendered in their last 6 games. The thing that stands out about last week’s game is that starting Philly safety CJ Gardner-Johnson left the game with a lacerated kidney that will keep him out this week as well. He played just 11 snaps and was off the field for all 3 of the Packers’ passing TDs, including a 63-yard TD to Christian Watson. That Watson TD included a long run after the catch where Gardner-Johnson’s replacement, Reed Blankenship, took a bad angle in pursuit and missed the tackle. Burks has similar run-after-catch skills, and he’s seen a 37% air yardage share in each of the last two games as the team has made a bigger effort to push the ball down the field. The last two games included two of Ryan Tannehill’s 3 highest air yardage totals of the season. If the Titans continue the increased efforts to throw downfield, Burks could be in for yet another nice day against a defense missing a key piece. He’s a WR3 with an upside for more. Keep an eye on the injury report here. Burks missed practice Thursday with an illness.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Steelers’ overall passing game hasn’t been anything to write home about with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens has been the best weekly option among his pass catchers. While Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson compete for the short targets, Pickens is the downfield weapon earning the higher value targets. In the last two weeks, Pickens has just one fewer target than Diontae Johnson and more than TRIPLE the air yards of his veteran teammate. For the season, only the Detroit Lions have allowed more completed air yards than the Falcons, and Atlanta has the lowest pressure rate in the league, generating pressure on just 11% of dropbacks by opposing QBs. Pickett will have time to find Pickens downfield, and that should mean good things for Pickens’ fantasy outlook. I don’t know that George has quite the same ceiling this week as Watson or Treylon Burks, given the low passing yardage we typically see from Pickett, but he probably has a safer floor than either of those two other rookie receivers.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 13 @Atl.): Pickett is only on the borderline in 2-QB and Superflex formats. The matchup with Atlanta looks enticing on paper. The Falcons have allowed the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve limited 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 15 fantasy points, and the one guy who topped 15, Justin Fields, put up more than half of his production with his legs. Pickett has been a low-ceiling fantasy option as a rookie. He hasn’t had more than 1 total TD in any of the 7 games he’s started, and he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 out of 7. Atlanta isn’t a good defense, but Pickett remains just a low-end QB2.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): White has handled 45 touches in the last two weeks with Leonard Fournette dealing with a hip injury, but it appeared that White may have leap-frogged Lenny on the depth chart even before the injury. Rachaad was in the game on the opening drive in week 11, and at worst was splitting the workload with Fournette in that game prior to the veteran getting hurt. The Saints are a tough matchup for running backs, allowing the 8^th-fewest running back points per game, but if Fournette sits, White’s passing game ability means you shouldn’t be sitting him in PPR leagues with a full workload. If Fournette plays, things get a little messier. White becomes a dicier RB3 option in that case. The biggest concern here is that the Bucs don’t play until Monday night. We might not have clarity on Fournette’s availability until after all your fallback options for White have already played. If starting Rachaad is a consideration, keep a close eye on the reports on Fournette. He’s practicing this week, so I’d operate under the assumption that he suits up, and if you have other solid options you could start over White on Sunday, I’d roll with those other options. White probably sees 12-15 touches if Fournette plays. For the season, White ranks 39^th in yards per touch out of 50 qualified running backs.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Kyren functioned as the lead back in week 12, handling 71% of the Rams’ backfield snaps, but this is an offense that will likely struggle to score points with Bryce Perkins at QB, and they don’t throw enough for Kyren to be a PPR maven, which is the role his skill set is best suited for. Williams saw 3 targets last week, and it was enough for a 14% target share. The Seahawks are a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 3^rd-most fantasy points per game to the position, but I don’t think Kyren is going to be able to really take advantage this week. You could plug him in as an RB3 in a PPR league if you really need help, but you should be smiling if he manages to give you 10+ points.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): You know what to expect from Allgeier each week – around 8-10 carries and maybe a target or two. He’s worth a look as a flex play in plus matchups, especially in non-PPR formats, but this isn’t exactly a plus matchup. The Steelers rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, and Allgeier is unlikely to post big numbers on his part-time workload.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): The matchup this week is as good as it gets for London. The Steelers allow the most WR points per game, but it’ll take a strong stomach to try your luck here. London still hasn’t reached 50 yards in a game since week 3, and he just finished with 2-29 last week in a good matchup against the Commanders as teammate Olamide Zaccheaus caught for 91 yards. There’s an upside for London if the ball actually comes his way, but after scoring fewer than 8 PPR points in 8 of his last 9 games, there seems to be more downside than upside here.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Dotson has now been back on the field for 3 weeks since his stint on IR. They’re the only 3 games he’s played with Taylor Heinicke under center. Dotson has totaled 4 targets, 2 receptions, and 27 yards in those 3 games. You can’t get Dotson into lineups until we see the ball start going his way more often or one of the two receivers ahead of him (Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel) gets hurt.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Dulcich continues to post 80%+ route participation rates each week, but the play of Russell Wilson has deteriorated to the point where it’s hard to rely on any of his pass catchers outside of Courtland Sutton in lineups. Dulcich has totaled just 7 catches for 52 yards in the last 3 weeks. He did have a TD wiped away by a penalty last weekend, but that’s hardly comforting if he was in your lineup. His opponent this week, the Ravens, are a middling TE defense. They’ve allowed the 14^th-fewest TE points per game. The tight end position is a wasteland right now, so you could do worse than a guy who is playing a full-time role on a team that is usually in negative game scripts if you need a fill-in. A stat line like 4-40 could be enough for a top-12 TE finish in any given week. Dulcich is in play as a fringe TE1 this week, but I’d prefer waiver wire options like Tyler Conklin or Hayden Hurst if available.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): What a performance Jelani Woods put on in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. The rookie came into week 12 with just 7 catches and 79 yards for the season while playing in a 3-way committee with Kylen Granson and Mo-Alie Cox, but he put up a ridiculous 8-for-98 stat line with Granson out due to illness against the Steelers. Woods tallied about half of the Colts' total receiving yards for the game. Will that workload continue this week if Granson is able to return? Probably not. Woods is certainly worth adding if you need tight-end help and have a roster spot, but you’d probably be best served to wait a week to see if the usage holds with Granson back before plugging him into lineups. The Colts face Dallas this week, and the Cowboys rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game. Only 4 tight ends all year have reached 35 receiving yards against the Cowboys, and only 1 has found the end zone. It’s also worth noting that Woods is not practicing as of Thursday due to injury, and his status for Sunday remains up in the air.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): I thought Perkins had a great chance at 50+ rushing yards last week against Kansas City. He finished with 44, but he was even worse as a passer than I expected. He finished as the QB30 for the week with just 100 passing yards in a matchup that was more favorable than the one he faces this week. He’s a fringe QB2 at best this week unless he has a blow-up rushing game. Kyler Murray is the only QB to run for 25+ yards against the Seahawks this season. Murray has accounted for 71% of all of the QB rushing yards the Seahawks have allowed this year (in 2 games).

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 13: @NE): Cook appeared to be on the verge of a breakout in week 11 when he totaled 86 yards on 11 touches against the Browns, but he was back to being an afterthought in the offense on Thanksgiving. Cook saw a few more targets in the passing game but was on the field for just 14 offensive snaps and carried the ball only twice. Two carries and a handful of targets are not going to make Cook a viable fantasy option, especially this week against a New England defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 13: @LV): With Joshua Kelley back from IR, Spiller was back to the RB3 in this backfield. He’s not going to be useful even in a good matchup with the Raiders this week.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 13: @Det.): Don’t let the injury to Travis Etienne make you consider Conner this week. He’s not an option. Etienne should be good to go, and both JaMycal Hasty and Darrell Henderson would play ahead of Conner.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): I’ve touted Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns, and Watson returns this week, but I’d wait a week before even considering Bell for lineups. Bell has been very involved in recent weeks, with at least 5 targets in 3 straight games and a 60%+ snap share in each of the last two, but it may take a week for Watson to shake off the cobwebs after not starting a game in nearly two years. The Browns also aren’t likely to have to throw much against an abysmal Texans defense. Bell isn’t an option unless you’re desperate for someone who could put up 5-6 PPR points.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Pierce has played at least 65% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games, but he’s totaled just 9.1 PPR points in that span. It wouldn’t shock anyone if he put up a double-digit performance in any given week, but a goose egg is just as likely, especially against a Dallas defense that ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Thornton has played fewer than 40% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks and totaled just 2 targets in those contests. The Patriots will need to throw to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but you can’t count on much of that passing going to Thornton.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): It sounds like Bellinger will be able to return from his fractured eye socket this week (Coach Brian Daboll is optimistic that he’ll play), but after a month off I would be surprised if he immediately returns to a full workload. Anyone with a pulse is an option at tight end, but I’d recommend caution as Bellinger faces a Washington defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): Otton’s run as a feasible tight end option is officially over after he recorded zero targets last weekend. He’ll still play about half the snaps, splitting the job with Cam Brate, but he isn’t a starting TE option unless you know Brate isn’t going to play. Brate will play this week, and the Saints allow the fewest TE points per game.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Both Ferguson and Hendershot had solid days on Thanksgiving, with Ferguson posting a 3-57 line and Hendershot getting into the end zone on a goal line rushing attempt, but neither guy is getting more than a couple of opportunities each week with Schultz back. There’s not enough volume here to rely on either player.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Likely missed last week with an injury, and he’s questionable for week 13, but he’s topped 4 targets and 30 receiving yards just once in any game with a fully healthy Mark Andrews. There’s no reason to start Likely this week even if he suits up.

Rookies on byes in week 13: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, TE Trey McBride, ARI

Rookies who may as well be on byes in week 13: RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, TE Cole Turner, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Knight was unquestionably the surprise of the week in week 12. The Jets’ backfield pecking order seemed to be pretty well established in recent weeks after they traded for James Robinson to pair with Michael Carter, but Robinson was a shocking healthy scratch last week, and it was Knight who stepped in to take his place. The rookie finished the week as the RB23 with 103 scrimmage yards after Carter left the game with an injury. Carter may be able to return this weekend, but he’s not practicing yet as of Thursday and it’s worth noting that Knight played on 31% of the offensive snaps BEFORE Carter got hurt, and he certainly made the most of his opportunities and has likely earned more of them. If Carter does miss this week, Knight should own the early down work against a Minnesota defense that allows the 12^th-most RB points per game. They’ve allowed 4 different backs to top 15 fantasy points against them in the last 3 weeks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Knight makes it 5 backs in 4 weeks. He’s an upside RB3 if Carter is out this week, and he’s worth a roster spot even if Carter plays.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): I know it probably seems counterintuitive to list White as a sleeper when he played just 3 offensive snaps last Sunday, and the starter ahead of him put up over 300 scrimmage yards in that game, but Josh Jacobs’ status is up in the air for this week. If he misses this game, White is in line for the early down work against a defense that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA. Jacobs did have an injury designation for the same calf injury last week before having a career day, so it’s very possible he plays, but if he sits, Zamir is an RB3 with upside this week. The Chargers have given up 85+ rushing yards to a back in each of the past 4 weeks.

RBs Jordan Mason & Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): It seemed like Mason and TDP were likely banished from fantasy football consideration for the rest of the season after the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey and got Elijah Mitchell back from IR, but just a few weeks later Mitchell is out for the rest of the regular season and CMC is battling a knee injury. McCaffrey will likely still play, but Mitchell and Mason combined for 14 carries per game over the last 3 weeks behind him. We’ve seen this scenario play out once before, where Mason appeared to be the next man up, but it was Davis-Price who stepped into the more prominent role instead. Mason had been active ahead of him for special teams purposes. It’s possible we see the same thing play out here. Both players are worth a stash, but I would prioritize TDP if both are available. The RB2 behind McCaffrey should be in line for around 12 touches per game or so. Both are in play as a desperation option this week, but neither is a particularly good start against a Miami defense that ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA. They’re more interesting in DFS contests, especially the showdown format, where Mason costs just $2,000 and Davis-Price an even more enticing $200 on DraftKings.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Moore might finally be sneaking into the range where you can consider him in fantasy lineups in the deepest of leagues. He’s still been under a 50% route participation rate in every game this season, but Mahomes has been actively looking for him in the last two weeks with Hardman and Toney sidelined. Moore has been targeted on just shy of 40% of his total routes run in the last two weeks, and this week’s game with the Bengals figures to be a shootout. The Bengals’ pass defense hasn’t been the same since losing Chidobe Awuzie for the season. He was hurt early on against the Browns in week 8. Three of the four highest passing yardage totals the Bengals have allowed have happened from week 8 on, and they’ve come from QBs who haven’t thrown for a ton of yards this year – Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Each QB put up their 2^nd-highest passing yardage game of the season against the Awuzie-less Bengals. Imagine what an elite QB like Patrick Mahomes can do this week. I like Moore’s chances of getting to something like 5-50 and a possible score. He’d be a good target for DFS lineups and could be a solid WR4 in deeper leagues this week. Also, pay up for Mahomes in DFS this week.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): It doesn’t appear that Williams is going to make his debut in week 13, but it’s not impossible. He got in his first full practice of the season on Wednesday. The Jaguars are terrible against the pass (30^th in pass defense DVOA), so there’s some intrigue in Williams as a DFS tournament play, but I’d wait until we see him in game action to plug him into season-long lineups. The main reason I mention Williams here is because he’s still available in entirely too many leagues. He’s only 52% rostered on Sleeper and 21.5% rostered on ESPN. If he’s available in your league, he shouldn’t be.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Okonkwo is just a DFS dart throw for this week, but one who could have a sneaky upside. He’s seen his playing time hover around 35-40% of the snaps in recent weeks, but he gets the ball thrown his way when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 33% of his routes run for the year, and the Eagles may be a little more vulnerable in the middle of the field with CJ Gardner-Johnson out of action. Okonkwo saw 5 targets last week and has tallied a 30+ yard catch in 3 of the last 4 games. Don’t be surprised if he gets loose for a long catch in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a one-week hiatus, and it was an eventful week for the rookies. 3 different rookie receivers topped 100 receiving yards in week 11. George Pickens topped 80, Christian Watson scored 2 more TDs, and Skyy Moore had his best game of the season. On the ground, Isiah Pacheco and James Cook each set season-highs for rushing yards and Kyren Williams saw his first meaningful action of the season. There were some duds in there as well, most notably Dameon Pierce and Garrett Wilson, but overall, it was a great week for the rookies.

Week 12 is an interesting one. It’s the only week from week 6 through week 14 where no NFL team is on a bye. That should change your approach a little bit this week. Guys who were viable starters when there were 4 teams on a bye might not make the cut with all 32 teams in action. Keep that in mind as you consider your lineup decisions for week 12.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Leonard Fournette has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, and that means White should be in line for a monster week. The Bucs have been making a concerted effort to get their run game going in recent weeks (38 rushing attempts against the Seahawks ahead of their bye), and the Browns are the worst run defense in the NFL. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have coughed up the 2^nd-most fantasy points per game to the position. White should operate as the workhorse back this week in that inviting matchup. His skill as a pass-catcher gives him high RB1 upside this week. He’s going be as chalky as it gets for DFS lineups (just $5,100 on DraftKings), and you should be finding a way to get him into your lineups if you have him.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. LV): Walker struggled to run the ball against a stout Bucs defense in Germany ahead of the team’s bye last week, but he made up for it by pulling in 6 receptions for 55 yards. He’s now scored a dozen or more PPR points in 6 straight games and gets a juicy matchup with a bad Raiders’ defense this week. You weren’t going to sit Walker anyway, but you should feel confident firing him up against a Vegas team that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 12: @SF): Olave gets a tough matchup this week, and his overall target volume has taken a hit with Jarvis Landry back from injury, but the rookie has still topped 10 PPR points in 9 of 11 games this season, and the Saints are likely going to have to throw more this week as 9-point underdogs. As good as their overall defense has been, San Francisco has allowed the 13^th-most wide receiver points per game. Olave should be a reasonable WR2 as usual this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 12: @Mia.): The Texans abysmal offense finally caught up with Pierce last week as he finished with just 17 scrimmage yards in easily his worst fantasy performance of the season. The Texans have decided to turn to Kyle Allen at QB this week and bench Davis Mills, but I wouldn’t expect the offense to look substantially different. They still want to run this offense through Dameon Pierce. Look for the rookie to handle at least 15 touches and see a few targets come his way. Kyle Allen has thrown to running backs at a high rate when he’s been a starter in the past, but he was throwing to very good receiving backs (Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic). The Dolphins have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game this year, but they’ve been far from impenetrable up front. They’ve allowed the opposing lead back to run for 5+ yards per carry in 4 of their last 6 games, and all 4 of those backs found the end zone as well. Pierce is a decent RB2 option this week, even with the question marks about their QB play.

RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Washington is a 4-point favorite this week, and Robinson has averaged 17 carries per game in Commander wins. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, but the Falcons rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and have coughed up 6 rushing scores from inside their 5-yard line in the last 3 games. Robinson is a good bet for 60+ yards and a TD this week in a plus matchup. He’s a dicier option in PPR leagues than non-PPR, but he’s a very solid floor play RB3 this week.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a solid WR defense, allowing the 8^th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable since the injury of Chidobe Awuzie early in their week 8 game with the Browns. Two of the best 4 WR performances the Bengals have allowed have come since Awuzie’s injury, and Burks has been the focal point of the Titans’ passing game since returning from IR. The rookie has earned 14 targets in the last two weeks and posted a season-best 111 receiving yards against the Packers last week. The Titans actively look for Burks when he's on the field – he was targeted on 38% of his routes last week - and the Titans may have to throw more than usual to keep pace with the Bengals’ offense this week. Burks is in play as an upside WR3 for all formats in this one.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): The Jets have made the switch from Zach Wilson to Mike White at QB for this week, and it remains up in the air what that means for their pass catchers. In his playing time last season, White heavily targeted the running backs and Elijah Moore, but Garrett Wilson wasn’t on that team and Elijah Moore wasn’t in the doghouse. Wilson’s route participation rate has been near 100% in each of the last 3 games, and he’s the receiver most likely to benefit if White provides a boost to the passing game. The Bears have limited wide receivers this year, allowing the 9^th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but most of that can be attributed to negative game script in the first two months of the season. The Bears weren’t scoring points, and weren’t stopping the run, so teams didn’t have to throw on them. Since Justin Fields started to take off and the Bears started scoring points, it’s been a different story. 4 of the 5 best WR fantasy performances against the Bears this season have come in their past 4 games. Chicago ranks just 30^th in pass defense DVOA. I’m betting on the talent and expecting Wilson to have a bounce-back game where he pushes for a WR2 finish. Keep an eye on the Bears’ injury report here though. If Fields is out, the Jets may not need to throw as much, and you should downgrade Wilson a bit.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): You’ve got to have some fortitude to start any pass catcher playing in an Arthur Smith offense, but this feels like a good spot to do it. Washington’s defense should have success slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack and forcing them to throw more than they want to. The Commanders rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but just 16^th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow the 10^th-most WR points per game. With Kyle Pitts out, Washington’s defense should pay some extra attention to London, but London should earn a huge target share. He could hit 8+ targets for the first time since week 2. I like London’s chances to post his best yardage day since September. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): There’s some risk with Pickens this week facing a Colts defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, but that number feels a bit misleading. The Colts rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA, and often the issue for opposing receivers is that the Colts often play from behind and opponents lean on the ground game. The Colts have trailed on the scoreboard on more than 50% of their defensive plays and been in the lead for just 31% of them. When teams have thrown to their receivers against them, they’ve had success. Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin each topped 100 yards against them in recent weeks, and Pickens has been at least on par with Diontae Johnson as the Steelers’ WR1 since the Chase Claypool trade. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, and the Steelers rank 6^th in the NFL in pass rate when the game is close. Pickens should be a safe bet for 6+ targets, and that makes him an upside WR3/4 for me.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 12: @Car.): Dulcich hasn’t finished among the top-12 tight ends in either of the last two weeks, but I like his chances to get back there in Carolina this week. Dulcich continues to run a route on more than 80% of the Broncos’ dropbacks each week, and Denver will be without receiver Jerry Jeudy. The Panthers rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA, and 10 PPR points has pretty much meant a sure-fire top-12 TE finish. I like Dulcich’s chances to get there in what should be an ugly game.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): McBride hasn’t had a memorable rookie season so far, totaling 8 catches for 45 yards on the season, but he has a great chance to tally more yards this week than he did through the first 11 weeks combined. The Cardinals will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch while getting Kyler Murray back. The Chargers allow the 3^rd-most TE receiving yards per game, and the Cardinals will need someone beyond DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown to step up. McBride has a great chance to be that guy. As I mentioned with Dulcich above, tight end has been a wasteland for fantasy production in recent weeks. If you’re looking for a fill-in, you could do worse than McBride this week. View it as a slight downgrade for him if Greg Dortch is able to play.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Pacheco has been on a tear in the last two weeks, piling up 189 yards on 31 carries against the Jaguars and Chargers, but that’s good enough to be just the PPR RB35 in points per game over that span. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes, and the Chiefs don’t give him the ball at the goal line, usually opting to throw instead when they get in close. The injury to CEH takes away a threat to those goal-line carries for Pacheco, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll get any carries in close this week. The Rams’ defense has been much better against rushers than the Jaguars or Chargers. They’ve allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Pacheco is unlikely to finish as a top-30 RB this week without finding his way into the end zone for the first time since week 1. The Rams have given up just 5 running back rushing scores all year. If you think Pacheco adds to that number this week, start him. If you don’t, you should probably sit him.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): Allgeier has been useful as a fill-in during bye weeks, but he’s carried the ball fewer than 10 times in back-to-back games with Cordarrelle Patterson back at full strength. The Commanders rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA, and all 32 teams are in action this week, so Allgeier is unlikely to post a useful game Sunday for fantasy purposes on a limited workload. He’s a low ceiling RB4 this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Watson has been on fire in the last two weeks with FIVE touchdowns against the Cowboys & Titans, but I’m not sure I’d go back to that well again this week. The Eagles boast a great secondary that has allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and they’ve allowed a total of just 1 wide receiver touchdown in their last 5 games. They also don’t often get beat by the deep ball – Philly has allowed just 5 completions of 30+ yards for the season. Watson has still only hit 50 receiving yards once this season, and if the Eagles keep him out of the end zone, you’re probably not going to be happy with his output this week.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Dotson has returned from injury to a different offense than the one he left. Taylor Heinicke only has eyes for Terry McLaurin in the passing game. Scary Terry has a 31.6% target share with Heinicke under center, and it’s going to take time for Dotson to carve out a role again. The matchup this week is great – Atlanta allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game – but Dotson has been targeted just 3 times in his first two games back. His playing time increased in his 2^nd game back, and should increase again this week, but I’d look at other options in season-long leagues. He does make for an interesting DFS option this week in the great matchup, with a price tag of just $4,000 on DraftKings.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The return of Cam Brate did prove to be a problem for Cade Otton in week 10. Otton was in a route on right around 90% of the team dropbacks in weeks 8 & 9 without Brate, and that dropped all the way to 29% in week 10 with Brate back. He still managed to post a 3-35 line on 3 targets in that game, but that was against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. The Browns allow the 5^th-fewest tight end points per game. Otton is not a top-15 option at the position this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): With all 32 teams in action this week, Pickett is just a mid-to-low end QB2 against the Colts. Indy has been just a middling QB defense, allowing the 18^th-most points per game to the position, but Pickett has finished higher than the QB16 just once all year. He is coming off his two best fantasy games of the year, but it’ll likely take rushing production for Pickett to hit any kind of ceiling. The Colts have not allowed any QB this year to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards in a game, and they’ve held 5 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards. Pickett does have rushing upside – he’s averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game in his past 4 starts – but that upside is just enough to mean you could play him as a QB2 if you need to.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): With Chuba Hubbard back on the field, Blackshear has played fewer than 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks. That’s not enough work to rely on him when he faces a Denver defense that allows the 11^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Even with Khalil Herbert sidelined, Ebner was on the field for just 15 snaps and handled 6 offensive touches. David Montgomery is the workhorse here, and 6-8 touches against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA isn’t going to cut it if you’re looking for a fill-in starter. Ebner has never averaged as much as 3.5 yards per carry in an NFL game.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): In case you missed the news on Saturday, Warren has been ruled out for Monday’s game with the Colts.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): A plethora of injuries to Kansas City’s WR group earned Moore more playing time last week, and he posted his best performance of the season with 5 catches for 63 yards on a 46% route participation rate. It’s troubling that even with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman sidelined, and Kadarius Toney out early with a hamstring injury, that Moore still played behind Justin Watson, who posted a 98% route participation rate. JuJu has cleared the concussion protocols and will return this week, so I’d view last week’s output and playing time as the ceiling for Moore in this one. The Rams have been awful against wide receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position, but Moore’s upside remains limited as he’s just not getting enough playing time. He’s a WR5 for me this week.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Okonkwo has pulled in a 30+ yard catch in each of the last 3 games, but in each game, it’s been his only catch. The Titans just don’t throw enough to trust their TE2 to put up meaningful fantasy production. If you play him, you’re just hoping for another long catch, and hoping that it’s a touchdown this time.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Likely saw just one target and played only 32% of the offensive snaps last Sunday with Mark Andrews back from injury. It’ll likely take another Andrews injury to make Isaiah Likely viable for fantasy lineups again.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Whether the guy under center is Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger, Jelani Woods remains no more than a TD dart throw. He hasn’t pulled in more than 2 catches in any game this season. The Steelers have allowed just two TE scores all year, and Woods is one of three tight ends who could score one for the Colts, so divide those slim chances of a TD by 3 for Woods.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Turner returned from injury last week but saw just one target come his way with Logan Thomas and John Bates both active. Atlanta allows the 10^th-most TE points per game, but Turner won’t be the beneficiary this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): Perkins isn’t technically a rookie, but his first NFL snaps came this year, and he’s in line to start this week with Matthew Stafford and John Wolford both injured. Wolford will be active, but Perkins will get the starting nod. He boasts serious rushing upside that could push him into the mid-QB2 range even if he isn’t effective as a passer. Perkins ran for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 TDs in his last 2 college seasons, and he had 5 designed rushing attempts in just 26 snaps last week spelling Wolford. If your QB2 has been derailed by the benchings of Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield, you could do worse than Perkins as a replacement this week. The Chiefs have allowed 25+ rushing yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced and have allowed the 7^th-most QB points per game.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): The Rams unexpectedly waived Darrell Henderson this week, leaving their backfield to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. Akers will serve as the lead back on early downs, but Kyren should be the guy on passing downs. Kyren handled just 26% of the team rushing attempts last week, but he handled 100% of the 2-minute snaps and was in a route on 65% of the Rams’ passing dropbacks. The Rams need pass catchers with Cooper Kupp still sidelined and Allen Robinson at less than full strength, and the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most running back receptions and receiving yards per game. There’s a ton of risk here with LA starting Bryce Perkins at QB. The Rams haven’t thrown to their backs a lot this season, and Perkins is more likely to use his own legs as the check-down option than Matt Stafford would be. If you’re desperate for RB help in a PPR league, Williams could provide some unexpected upside this week, and will have more value when/if Matt Stafford returns. He’s worth a shot as a cheap DFS lineup option this week as well.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Spiller’s stats haven’t been overwhelming in recent weeks, but his playing time is steadily increasing. He has now taken over most of the backup RB role behind Austin Ekeler in this offense, playing 16 snaps and handling 6 touches last weekend to Sony Michel’s 5 snaps and 1 touch. Arizona represents another opportunity for Spiller’s playing time to increase. The Cardinals rank just 23^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game. The Cardinals have been watching their season slip away in recent weeks and have given up 30+ team points in 4 of their last 5 games. I like Spiller’s chances at 8-10 touches in a game where the Chargers should have a positive game script, and I wouldn’t rule out his first career TD. Spiller is a guy I like in limited slate DFS lineups this week.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): The Cards will get Kyler Murray back this week, but they will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch. Marquise Brown will be playing his first game in more than a month after a stint on IR, and Arizona is facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It would make sense to lean on the ground game more than usual. Ingram is the clear RB2 behind Conner with Darrel Williams still on IR. Even if Arizona runs their normal offensive approach, Keaontay should see a handful of touches, but if they do lean more heavily on the ground game, 10+ touches isn’t out the question. The Chargers rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game. Ingram is more of a DFS play than a season-long one. He costs just $2,200 on DraftKings for showdown contests, and he could substantially outperform that price tag.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Pierce finally started seeing some targets come his way again last week, and he played more snaps and ran more routes than Parris Campbell for the first time all year. He didn’t exactly make the most of his opportunities, with just 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets, but he gets a much better matchup this week and he showed a great rapport with Matt Ryan earlier in the season. The Steelers have allowed the most WR points per game, so Pierce is in play as a WR4 option this week despite scoring just 9.1 total PPR points in the last 3 games. He costs just $3,500 on DraftKings this week.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Bell isn’t an option for week 12, but Deshaun Watson is eligible to return next week, so Bell is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case Watson’s return sparks a late-season surge from the rookie. We’ve already seen signs of an increasing role, as Bell has been above a 50% route participation rate in each of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 5 targets in each of the last two. If this passing game does get a boost from Watson’s return, Bell is likely to be a viable fantasy option down the stretch.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.