I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the byes weren't an issue for you in week 8, but chances are if they weren't they likely are this week with another 6 teams off. There have been a lot of injuries piling up too, so you may be digging a little deep to find fill-ins to get by. Guys like Jacquizz Rodgers, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jamison Crowder, and Devontae Booker have proven useful in recent weeks, and believe me...there will be more unexpected contributors before the season is out. Let's take a look at this week's rookie matchups, and see if there might be a few of them who could fit that bill in week 9...
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Dak's been rolling and faces one of the best matchups he'll see all year. The Jets were the first team all season to throw for fewer than 2 TDs against the Browns, and Dak has scored at least 17 points (all scores are ESPN standard scoring) every week after the opener. Dak should be a low-end QB1 at worst in a great matchup.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Zeke didn't quite extend his streak of 130-yard rushing performances to 5 in week 8, but he tallied 158 yards from scrimmage and now has 14 or more points in 5 straight. The Browns have allowed 75 fantasy points in the past 2 weeks to opposing RBs. Start-sit decisions don't get much easier than this one. Fire up Zeke as an RB1 again.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 9: @Oak.): Booker failed to hit his ceiling in a plus matchup with the Chargers last weekend, but he was still the RB16 on the week. The matchup is good again in week 9. The Raiders rank 25th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency and have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Booker is likely to be at least a top-16 RB again. You should feel comfortable starting him this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 9: @SF): Thomas has been on a really nice roll of late. He put up his lowest fantasy output of the past 5 weeks in week 8, but that still meant a 6-63 line against the stingy Seahawks' secondary. He also led the Saints WRs in snaps played for the 2nd time this year. The 49ers aren't nearly as stingy vs WRs. San Francisco has allowed multiple WR touchdowns in each of their last 4 games, and Thomas's recent usage likely puts his floor right around that line he put up a week ago. With so many top WRs out on bye this week, that makes Thomas an upside WR3.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 9: @NYG): The Giants have been solid against quarterbacks, allowing the 7th-fewest QB points per game, and Wentz is coming off of 3 straight down games. With all that said, Wentz's short passing game might pay off this week and help him to a bounce-back game. Wentz has the fewest average air yards per pass attempt in the league according to Football Outsiders, and the Giants are allowing 132.4 yards after catch per game, the 8th-most in the NFL. It's still not a great matchup, but not as bleak as it might appear. With just 26 active QBs this week, Wentz should be a low-end QB2.
RB Peyton Barber, TB (Wk. 9: vs. Atl.): Jacquizz Rodgers is questionable this week, and with the game being on Thursday, he seems more and more unlikely to play. Head coach Dirk Koetter has already said he sees the team using a committee approach against the Falcons, and that means Barber and Antone Smith are likely to split the work. There is some risk here with Barber since he was out-snapped and out-touched by Smith last week, but I'd expect Barber to get a good chunk of the early down work. Atlanta has been vulnerable against the run, ranking 21st in run defense DVOA and allowing 23 points per game to opposing backs if you throw out their 2 outlier games (One vs GB where FB Aaron Ripkowski led the team in backfield snaps, and one vs Carolina where they dominated the game and time of possession). As I mentioned, there's risk here without knowing the work split with Smith, but there is RB2 upside.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): With a lot of top WRs on bye this week, Shep is at least in consideration as a deep-league WR3. His production was less than stellar in the few weeks before the Giants' bye, but he's seen 7 or 8 targets in each of the past 7 games and the Giants had the bye week to get their passing game straightened out. This is more of a hunch than anything, but I like the Giants to get it together this week and for Shepard to have his best game since week 3. I still wouldn't recommend him as anything more than a WR3 in deeper leagues.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 9: @TB): I'd probably prefer to start Hooper over fellow borderline rookie TE Hunter Henry this week despite having a tougher matchup. The Bucs have been stingy to the position, allowing fewer than 7 fantasy points to the position in 5 of their 7 games and ranking 5th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing TEs. They are coming off allowing 6-67-1 to the Oakland Raiders' TEs, however, and Hooper is likely to see more targets than Henry as the Falcons’ clear lead TE with Jacob Tamme out. It also helps Hooper that Tamme was leading all tight ends in red zone targets. Hooper should have a decent shot at finding the end zone. He's a low-end TE1 in 12- or 14-team leagues this week.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Henry is a streaming option this week rather than a locked-in TE1. Antonio Gates seems to be back to full strength, running nearly twice as many routes as Henry in week 8. Henry has just 3 catches in the past 2 weeks, but there is a little upside with a soft matchup against the Titans on tap. Travis Benjamin is likely to miss the game, which could get the Chargers into more 2-TE sets and get Henry more snaps. Tennessee has allowed the 9th-most points per game to opposing TEs, so any increase in snaps and routes should give Henry some upside. Like Hooper, he's on the radar as a low-end streamer in 12- and 14-team leagues or deeper.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): As I mentioned earlier with Wentz, there are only 26 QBs playing this week, so pretty much all of them should be considered in 2QB leagues, but the matchup isn't great for Kessler and he's coming off an injury. The Cowboys have allowed just 11 or 12 fantasy points to 3 of the past 4 QBs they've faced. Cody may get a boost from the return of Corey Coleman, but I would avoid rolling with him unless you are desperate in a 2-QB league. There is still an outside shot Josh McCown gets the start.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Washington should return this week after seeming to be due back last week, but Minnesota probably isn't the best matchup to try him out in. The Vikings had their worst game of the season vs. running backs last Monday against the Bears and Jordan Howard, but I don't expect a repeat this weekend. Washington's role still isn't fully defined after Theo Riddick operated as the clear lead back in week 8. It's best to take a wait-and-see approach with Washington in this one.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Even with surprise RB fill-ins Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb both out with injury last week, Jackson couldn't manage to play ahead of FB Aaron Ripkowski. Knile Davis was cut this week, but Jackson is best left on the wire despite a plus matchup with the Colts. Look for Montgomery to operate as the lead RB again this week.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Den.): The split between the two of the backup role continues to sap the usefulness of both backs. With Latavius back on the field, neither one is seeing enough work to be startable. Steer clear of both.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): Prosise made good on my 'Sleeper' prediction last week, cashing in for 103 scrimmage yards on just 8 touches. I wouldn't expect him to duplicate that production this week against the Bills if the workload stays the same. The Bills are a little stingier than New Orleans. It'll be interesting to see if his passing down role continues once Thomas Rawls finally returns.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): Much like their passing game, the Giants need to get their run game fixed as well. While giving Paul Perkins more work could help, there's no evidence that they'll do it anytime soon. It's worth watching to see if there is any change to the work split, but not worth putting Perkins in any lineups.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): Louis is only worth consideration if Corey Coleman is still out this week, or if Pryor surprisingly sits with his hamstring issue, and only as a desperation WR4 even in that case. He's averaging 5.6 targets per game over his past 6 games, but he's failed to catch even 50% of them and has topped 40 yards just once. His volume will drop if Coleman returns and Pryor plays.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 9: @SD): Sharpe just can't seem to put any production together despite a prominent role in the offense. He's seen 5.8 targets per game for the season but is putting up just 5.7 yards per target. Until one or both of those numbers come up, there is no reason to consider starting Sharpe.
Rookies on Byes: RB Jordan Howard, CHI, RB Rob Kelley, WAS, RB Tyler Ervin, HOU, WR Will Fuller, HOU, WR Tyler Boyd, CIN, WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 9: @SD): Henry finally got some extended run last week due to an injury to DeMarco Murray, and he produced in a big way. Henry finished as the RB7 for the week. Murry is still dealing with the toe injury he suffered, but he seems likely to play. Still, he may cede some extra work to Henry as he plays through it against a Chargers team allowing the 6th-most RB fantasy points per game. I'd have a hard time starting Derrick in any season long leagues, but he'd be an interesting cheaper option in DFS tournaments. His price has spiked a little this week with the thin slate and his strong game last week, but there is upside if the Titans give him an extended role again.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): Coleman looks likely to finally return this week. It’ll be hard to trust him in season-long leagues coming off such a long layoff. The Cowboys allow the 20th-most WR points per game and don’t give up the deep ball, allowing just 2 passes of 40+ yards on the year. With that said, it’s a hand injury that has kept Corey out, so his conditioning should be fine. Terrelle Pryor has been dealing with a hamstring tweak in practice this week as well. Coleman should be close to an every down player, and he’d be a great cheap DFS option and a desperation WR3 option in deeper leagues.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): It’s hard to call a guy coming off a 5-98-1 line last week and 2 straight double-digit point games a sleeper, but Hill fits that bill this week. He’s more of a gadget player than a regular starter, but he should factor into the short passing game more heavily if Spencer Ware is unable to play. Nick Foles is getting the start Sunday, so there is also the 2nd-string connection between Hill and Foles that can help him as well. We’ve already seen that be a factor for Cameron Meredith and Brian Hoyer as well as Geno Smith and Charone Peake to a lesser extent. 2nd string QBs tend to have a better rapport with 2nd string WRs who they throw to in practice. 4 of Hill’s week 8 catches, 88 of his yards, and the one TD were thrown by Foles. Add in that the Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs that aren’t the opposing #1 or #2, and Hill could have another nice game this week.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins have allowed 22 or more WR points in 6 of their 7 games so far, and Anderson has been playing more snaps than Quincy Enunwa of late. He’s seen 6 targets twice in the past 3 weeks. I think he’s due for a breakout game, and I have a hunch it comes this week. He’s only an option in the deepest of leagues since he’s shown a floor of about 3-30, but I like him to have possibly his best game of the season.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you navigate some of the tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure all of your guys are active on game day. If you want to yell at me about this info or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always...good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're officially past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season. Hopefully you're in good playoff position, but if you aren't, there is still a little time to turn it around. Week 8 won't be an easy one for many of you. There are 6 teams on a bye this week, including several prominent running backs and wide receivers whose absences will have to be survived to get a W. It's possible there might be a rookie who can help you get through, so let's jump right in and talk about the matchups for the rookies this week...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): You're not sitting him. Zeke has run for over 130 yards in each of the past 4 games and has had a bye week to rest up and get ready for this one. The Eagles have had a decent run defense on the year, but they rank a middling 13th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA statistic which measures efficiency, and they've allowed opposing running backs to put up 324 rushing yards in the past 2 games. He's definitely a high-end RB1 again this week, especially with Le'Veon, Gurley, Hyde, and the suddenly incredible Jay Ajayi on bye.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. SD): It appeared that Booker had worked his way in to a full timeshare with CJ Anderson last week, but it doesn’t look like that will continue to be the case in week 8. That’s because CJ has suffered an ankle injury that may keep him out a several weeks, leaving all of the work to Booker. If he’s available in your league still, run to your waiver wire to claim him. It’s a ripe matchup for Devontae this week. The Chargers allow the 7th-most RB fantasy points per game, rank 18th in run defense DVOA, and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. With so many top backs out on byes this week, Booker has RB1 upside and should be started with confidence.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. vs. Det.): Suggesting that you start Fuller requires a bit of leap of faith given his lack of production over the past few weeks, but I'm willing to take that leap. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 117.3 QB rating to opposing passers, and have also allowed 18 TD passes, which is tied for the most in the league. The Lions have allowed 20+ fantasy points (all point totals from ESPN standard scoring) to 5 of the 7 QBs they've faced and 16 each to the other 2. To make matters worse, the Lions are likely going to be missing their top corner Darius Slay. They'll manage to even make Brock Osweiler look good. Fuller should have plenty of opportunity for his best day in weeks. He should be a WR3 this week with upside for more.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles’ pass defense has been fairly stingy so far this year, but they’ve allowed 6 TD passes in their past 3 games. They’ve also allowed 13.3 QB points per game on the road. I know, that isn’t a big number, but it’s much bigger than the 6.7 they’ve allowed at home. Meanwhile, Prescott has been rock steady piloting this balanced offense, tallying at least 17 points in each of the past 5 games. With so many byes this week, Dak is right on borderline of QB1 and QB2 despite a tough paper matchup.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Wentz has been struggling in his past 2 contests, but with 6 byes this week it’s hard to make a case that he’s not usable in 2-QB leagues. The Cowboys have allowed at least 11 QB points and at least 1 TD pass in all 6 games they’ve played this year. They also rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Wentz should be a low-end QB2 with a fairly safe floor but limited upside.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Cin. in London): Kelley salvaged a light workload in week 7 with a short receiving TD, but he should see more volume this week with Matt Jones looking less and less likely to play in London. The matchup isn’t as daunting as the Bengals would have been in past seasons. They rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed 78 RB fantasy points in the past 3 weeks to Dallas, New England and Cleveland (26.7 points per game). I would expect Chris Thompson to handle some of the carries as well if Jones is out, and he already handles all of the passing down work, so it won’t quite be a full workload for Kelley. As long as Jones is out, Kelley should still get enough volume to be a borderline RB2 this week.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Howard’s role is in doubt after an apparent benching last week in the second half of a close game against Green Bay (it was close at halftime). He was out-touched by Ka’Deem Carey 11-7 for the game, but I would expect things to swing back in his favor this week. Howard should lead the backfield in touches on Monday, and he’s playable despite a tough matchup with the Vikings. While Minnesota allows just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, they also allow 53 RB receiving yards per game. Ka’Deem Carey has just 11 career receptions over 3 seasons. Jordan Howard has 14 so far this season. Howard should see the bulk of the receiving work, and thanks to that receiving volume he should be on the RB2/RB3 borderline in a thin week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Thomas has been the most productive Saints WR over the past 4 weeks, averaging 6.5 catches for 81 yards per week with 3 TDs in that span. The Seahawks ‘Legion of Boom’ has always been a defense to avoid with fantasy receivers, but they’ve shown some vulnerability of late and the Saints’ passing attack is always deadly at home. Seattle has allowed 28 WR points per game over the past 3 games and Brees has thrown for at least 376 yards in all 3 home games this year. The sledding won’t be easy for Thomas, as Seattle’s best corners play on the perimeter, but there is definitely a chance for success this week. Thomas is should be right on the WR3 borderline.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 8: @Den.): I’d probably lean towards sitting Henry this week if he plays, but he certainly had success in this matchup 2 weeks ago (6-83-1). He did enter into the concussion protocol after the game last Sunday, but seems to be trending in the right direction to play in Denver. His playing time will continue to be cut into as Antonio Gates gets healthier, but you have to attack the Broncos with tight ends since their corners are so good. I’d expect the Broncos to make stopping Henry a bigger priority this time around, but he’s still likely a top-15 TE play for the week.
QB Kevin Hogan, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): At this point all signs are indicating that Josh McCown will be the man under center for the Browns this weekend, but I would avoid Hogan if he winds up getting the nod. The matchup is a good one, but Hogan was just 12-for-24 passing last week, tallying 100 yards. That equates to a pathetic 4.16 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to allow him to beat them with his legs the way the Bengals did either. I wouldn’t be able to trust Hogan even in a 2-QB league this week. Luckily, it’s unlikely to matter with McCown due back.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 8: @TB): Washington has clearly established himself as the number 2 back ahead of Richard after being in a pretty even timeshare previously, but he still only saw 6 touches himself in week 7. Latavius Murray seems to be back in the lead back role after missing a game with injury. Murray dominated the rushing attempts and scored 2 TDs last weekend as Oakland played from comfortably ahead of Jacksonville. The Vegas odds project a closer game this week, so there may be some additional passing work for Washington in a plus matchup, but he'll be tough to trust coming off last week's workload. I'd steer clear.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Keep an eye on Smallwood's workload this week. You can't play him this week since he's seen just 4 carries in each of the past 2 games and faces a tough matchup Sunday, but he might start to see a bigger share of the work thanks to some recent fumbling issues for Ryan Mathews. If there is an uptick in usage, Smallwood may be worth a stash going forward.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): If you need an explanation for why you shouldn't play Derrick Henry, you don't own him on any teams. There's no reason to consider him. If you need a bye fill-in in a deep league, and were considering picking up Henry, think better of it and leave him on the wire.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 8: @Atl.): It looks like this backfield will belong to Ty Montgomery until James Starks gets healthy enough to take over again. Jackson saw just 2 carries in his debut last Thursday, and left the game with an ankle injury. If the Packers need someone other than Montgomery to handle the between-the-tackles work, my money would be on Knile Davis to see the bulk of those carries, not Jackson.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): Sharpe had his best performance since week one last Sunday, and he totaled just 4 catches and 59 yards. There's nothing to see here. Delanie Walker remains the only pass-catcher to own in Tennessee.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Louis saw just 3 targets last week with Cody Kessler knocked out by a concussion. He saw 9 the previous week. The entire passing attack suffered with Kevin Hogan under center. It looks like it will be Josh McCown at QB this week, but the only pass catcher we know that’s a plus for is Gary Barnidge. Louis has deep speed, and the Jets have proven to be burnable on the deep ball several times this year, but it’ll be hard to count on Louis this week. His production and target share have been inconsistent, and he’s never caught a pass from McCown. With Terrelle Pryor getting healthier and a possible return for Corey Coleman this week, Louis will likely be pushed further down in the pecking order.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Rogers fell flat last week in a spot where it looked like he would get plenty of opportunity. With Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen out, he tallied just 2 catches and 30 yards despite Andrew Luck throwing for 353 yards. Dorsett returns this week, and Donte Moncrief is expected back as well. That would drop Rogers to the WR4 role and render him useless for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Mitchell isn’t quite stash-worthy yet, but it’s worth noting that he played almost as many snaps as Chris Hogan in week 7. He wasn’t targeted on any of them, but it’s only a matter of time before he sees more work. He’s a guy to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Washington looks set to return this week, and he will likely push Zach Zenner to the bench. This situation is still a bit of a mess with 4 backs (3 if Riddick sits again this week), but I buy into Washington’s talent as the early down back. Zenner and Forsett were thoroughly uninspiring last week with Washington and Riddick both sidelined, so I would expect Dwayne to have a role immediately. The Texans have allowed 8 RB rushing scores in 7 games and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to pull the trigger in season long leagues, but Washington should cost the minimum in DFS and could be a decent punt play in tournaments.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 8: @NO): CJ is a potential stash now that the other CJ has been sent packing. Spiller was released, and Prosise should assume the passing down role. There hasn’t been a ton of volume with Christine Michael hogging most of the RB touches, but Prosise did play 16 snaps last week. He only saw 3 touches, but the matchup this week is one that could have a lot more action for the former college WR. The Saints have allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. Obviously it would be hard to trust a guy in your lineup who’s had just 5 touches all year. Like I said, I view him more as a stash than a guy to play this week, but don’t be surprised if he has a decent game out of nowhere.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Coleman may finally return this week from a broken hand that has sidelined him for more than a month. His status is still up in the air, but he returns to a plum matchup if he’s able to go. There’s always risk when you play a guy coming off a long layoff (especially when the QB is coming off a layoff as well), but the Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, allow the 4th-most WR fantasy points, and have allowed 9 passes of 40 or more yards (tied for most in the league). One deep ball would make Coleman worthwhile. He could be a usable WR3 if you are in a pinch. Just make sure he’s playing before pulling the trigger.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 8: @Cle.): Anderson appears to have moved back ahead of Charone Peake and Jalin Marshall in the pecking order in New York. Peake had really started to gain traction with 10 targets in week 6, but that number plummeted to 2 in week 7. Anderson didn’t see many more, with 3 targets, but he made the most of his opportunities by catching all 3 for 41 yards and gaining 30 yards on a rushing attempt. I expect Anderson to be the third WR moving forward. While Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will see the bulk of the passing targets, Anderson might be worth a desperation play in the deepest of deep leagues this week. The Browns allow the 5th-most WR points, and Enunwa’s target share has been slowly dipping over the past few weeks (11,7,7,5 and 4 targets over past 5 games). There’s a chance Anderson picks up some of that slack if the trend continues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the many byes that you may be dealing with this weekend and pull out a win. Keep a close eye on the injury reports to make sure everyone in your lineup is active on game day. Feel free to reach out via twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about the things written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're nearly halfway through the fantasy regular season, so hopefully your teams have gotten out of the gate quickly enough to still feel like a contender at this point. With Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott on bye this week, the list of rookies I would tell you to confidently start is a bit light for week 7.
Outside of Zeke and Dak, it's been a bit of a down year for the rookies. Whether we're talking about high picks (Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Derrick Henry, Jared Goff), or just rookies who were hyped up by the fantasy community (Kenneth Dixon, CJ Prosise, Tyler Boyd), things just haven't gone as planned for most of the rookies. Meanwhile, veteran players who were long buried and forgotten by the fantasy community like Christine Michael, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and Terrelle Pryor have re-emerged.
While the rookies haven't lived up to the hype so far, I do expect we'll see more flashes from them as the season wears on. This week, since there are so few bankable rookies to start, I took a look at some lesser known deep-league sleepers and stashes to keep an eye on this week and going forward. Let's dive into the week 7 matchups...
Rookies to Start:
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Henry will remain a top-10 TE play as long as Antonio Gates is at less than 100%. He's scored a touchdown in each of the past 3 games, and has been a focal point of the passing game. This week he gets to face off with a Falcons' defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs (ESPN standard scoring), and ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing tight ends. There's always the risk that Gates's role will increase again, but I'd feel comfortable starting Henry again this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Kessler is a streaming option for 2-QB leagues this week. Head coach Hue Jackson has officially named Kessler the team’s starter (regardless of Josh McCown’s status) after playing his best game of the season. This week, he faces a Bengals team that has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs, the 2nd highest QB rating, and the 8th-most QB fantasy points in the league. If Terrelle Pryor ends up sitting, it drops Kessler’s outlook a bit, but if he plays he has top-15 upside.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 7: @GB): Howard was able to save a sub-par game last week with a touchdown, but he ceded more carries than you would like to Ka’Deem Carey and he faces a much tougher matchup this week. The Packers rank 3rd in run defense DVOA despite getting torched by Ezekiel Elliott last week. Howard is still in play this week, but you need to temper your expectations. He would need a bit more receiving production to hit his ceiling in this one and should be treated as more of an RB3. He plays tonight, so you have to make an early decision here. If you were able to grab Jacquizz Rodgers or Mike Gillislee off the wire this week, I would play one of them over Howard.
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Washington finally seemed to push ahead of Jalen Richard last week in the Raiders’ backfield platoon, playing the majority of the snaps and out-touching Richard 10-to-6. Latavius Murray has been limited in practice this week and is shaping up to be a possible game-time decision. If he sits, there is some upside in this matchup. The Jaguars rank 27th in run defense DVOA, and Washington has at least been consistent, putting up at least 46 scrimmage yards in each of his past 5 games. If you’re hard up for a starter this week with so many RB injuries, Washington could make for a decent floor play if Latavius remains sidelined again.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 7: @KC): Thomas has been outstanding of late, putting up at least 4 catches and a TD in each of the past 3 games, and topping 70 yards in 2 of them. The problem is that Willie Snead was out or limited in 2 of those 3 games, the Saints are on the road (where Brees is significantly worse than at home), and the Chiefs rank 6th in pass defense DVOA (despite allowing the 12th-most WR points). This offense will still throw enough for Thomas to have some upside, but he’s a WR3 option at best.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 7: @LA): Shep has been a pretty big letdown over the past few weeks, but he should have a great opportunity to get back on track this week. The Rams have allowed more catches to slot WRs than any other team in the league, and have allowed the following WR lines to predominantly slot guys: Adam Humphries 9-100, Larry Fitzgerald 5-62, Anquan Boldin 8-60-1, and Jeremy Kerley 7-61. Shepard should actually be a pretty solid floor WR3 in PPR, and more of a borderline option in standard leagues. Even through his struggles, Shepard has still been targeted at least 7 times in each of the past 5 games. Those looks are bound to start leading to production, and I think that starts this week.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): The Colts have been desperate for a number 2 wide receiver since Donte Moncrief went down with injury. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t been the answer and may be out this week, and tight end Dwayne Allen is likely to miss the game as well. Rogers has performed admirably as a fill-in, and he should have the most opportunity he’s had yet with so many pass-catchers sidelined. Rogers played 53 snaps last week and put up a 4-63 line. While the Titans have been pretty good vs. wide receivers this season, they did just allow 18-202-2 to the Cleveland WRs. Hilton should still be a target hog, but Rogers could be a decent WR3 play this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Wentz is coming off his worst start of the year, and this week he gets to face off with the defense allowing the 5th-fewest points to opposing QBs. The big thing that worries me with Wentz is the suspension of Lane Johnson. Ryan Kerrigan basically set up a residence in the Eagles' backfield last week, and the Vikings have the bodies up front to cause the same kind of trouble in Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Add in the fact that the Vikings are coming off a bye and Jordan Matthews is banged up this week, and it doesn't look good for Wentz. I'd be nervous to even play him as a low-end QB2.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Booker managed to out-rush CJ Anderson last week on far fewer carries, and many people think more touches are headed his way after his coach said he wants Booker to be more involved. I still think CJ is the lead back here and will see significantly more snaps than Booker. Anderson had 47 yards and a TD called back by 3 Bronco penalties last week. He would have had a robust 118 yards and a TD without those penalties on just 17 touches. Booker will have to continue making an impact in limited opportunities to provide any real fantasy value this week. I’d avoid him in most leagues.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Richard has had bigger games than DeAndre Washington this season, but he’s been less consistent. While Washington has tallied 46 or more yards in 5 straight games, Richard has only reached that mark twice all year. Granted, he put up 95 and 97 yards in those contests, but there is just too much downside here after he gained just 13 yards on 6 touches last week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): This is a great matchup, with the Colts allowing the 2nd-most RB fantasy points in the league, but the workload just hasn't been usable for fantasy purposes. He might be worth trotting out as a TD dart throw...if the Titans ever used him when they got close to scoring. So far they haven't. On the year Henry has seen just 2 carries and zero passing targets in the red zone while DeMarco Murray has seen 17 carries and 9 targets there. Without the TD upside, there isn't much to like about playing Henry.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 7: @Det.): The Lions still haven't allowed a running back to score a rushing TD, and Kelley hasn't caught a single pass all year. It's safe to say he's unlikely to find the end zone. The increased workload that Coach Jay Gruden talked about last week turned out to be 5 carries instead of the 3 he saw in week 5. While he did turn those 5 carries into 59 yards, that's not the kind of volume you want to trust in your lineup and Matt Jones is playing too well for Kelley to steal a much larger piece of the load.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): The Vikings have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, and Smallwood hasn’t had much of a role lately. He put up 20 yards on 5 touches last week, and played just 1 snap in the previous game. He came up with a punt return TD last week, but that isn’t the kind of thing that will be duplicated. He’s best left out of any lineups this week.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 7: @LA): Perkins looked decent on the 4 touches he saw in week 6, gaining 26 yards, but I repeat: He saw just 4 touches. It's promising for Perkins that Orleans Darkwa saw zero, but for now Perkins is still comfortably behind Jennings and Rainey in the pecking order. Steer clear for the time being.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 7: @Den.): Fuller has been banged up the past couple weeks, and this week gets to face off with a Broncos’ defense that is allowing the fewest WR fantasy points in the league. While it seems likely that Fuller is able to play, I wouldn’t count on him doing much. He gets by on his speed, and if his hamstrings are anything less than 100%, I’d expect him to struggle in a big way. I just wouldn’t be able to trust him in my lineups.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): You don't need me to tell you that you can't start a guy who has totaled just 32 yards in 3 weeks against the Texans, Dolphins and Browns. That's hardly a murderer’s row of defenses. The coaching staff has talked about Sharpe regressing of late, and he may have squandered his opportunity to be the Titans' WR1 with the breakout game of Kendall Wright last weekend.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Plays:
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): He obviously has to play to be a sleeper this week, but all of the signs are pointing to him suiting up. The Lions’ backfield appears to be a bit of a 4-way mess, so you kind of have to read the tea leaves here, but Washington looks like the best option of the group this week. Theo Riddick seems to be less than 50-50 to play this week, and despite a decent week 6 performance, I’d expect Zach Zenner to be relegated to backup duties once again. Justin Forsett will likely take over the third down receiving back role with Riddick out, and Washington would then assume most of the early down work. Washington was just getting going this year before his ankle injury sidelined him, and this week he gets to face a defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-most running back fantasy points. If Riddick sits, Washington has RB2 upside this week.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Things in the Green Bay Packers’ backfield have rapidly devolved with the injuries to Eddie Lacy (placed on IR) and James Starks (out at least a month after a knee scope). The Packers have traded for Knile Davis and signed Jackson from the practice squad. Wide receiver Ty Montgomery also entered the backfield mix by impressing on 22 snaps in that role last week after Lacy was hurt (6 catches for 52 yards out of the backfield). There have been conflicting reports from two different Packers beat writers this week, one suggesting that Montgomery would get the majority of the backfield snaps, the other suggesting it will be Jackson. I’d expect game script to dictate it. If the Packers are playing from behind or in a close game, Montgomery will likely see more work than Jackson, and vice versa if they play from ahead. The Packers are at home, and are a touchdown favorite, so if things go according to plan it should favor the rookie. The Bears rank 20th in run defense DVOA, so if he sees 15 carries, he should be productive enough to be on the RB2/RB3 borderline. At the very least, he should be owned with both Lacy and Starks out an extended period.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Boyd managed to put up 77 yards last weekend against the Patriots, but the Bengals spent much of that game playing catch up. They figure to play from ahead this week as a 10-point favorite at home against the Browns. Overall passing volume should be down, but the Browns have struggled to contain slot receivers. They’ve given up lines of 7-114-1 to Jordan Matthews and 7-120-1 to Jarvis Landry. You could argue that those guys are better than the average slot receiver, but last week they allowed 8-133-1 to Kendall Wright. There won’t be a ton of volume for Boyd, but he’s a sneaky bet to score a TD this week.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Louis seems to have established himself as the WR2 on this team as long as Corey Coleman is sidelined. He saw a season-high 9 targets in week 6, and this week faces a Cincinnati team that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to the opposing number 2 wide receiver. They’ve allowed TDs to #2 guys Eric Decker and Kenny Stills and two to Emmanuel Sanders (Demaryius also scored a TD vs. Cincy if you consider Sanders their number 1). Some of this is moot if Terrelle Pryor winds up not playing this week, since Louis would be the de facto number one, but in that case he would see enough volume that his outlook would be similar. Louis is legitimately in play as a WR3 in deeper leagues this week.
WR Charone Peake, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): Peake seemed to take a step forward as the Jets’ WR3 last week, and the Ravens have allowed over 31 points per game to opposing WRs in the past 5 games (non-PPR). Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will certainly benefit the most from the Eric Decker injury, but Peake saw 10 targets last week and looks to at least be ahead of Robby Anderson and Jalin Marshall on the depth chart for now. With Geno under center, there may be a little extra chemistry between these two since they have both been playing with the 2nd team offense. Peake is in play as a DFS tournament punt option or a WR3 in really deep leagues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of the tougher lineup decisions you're facing this week. As usual, a lot of these outlooks hinge on the injury status of other players on these teams, so make sure and keep an eye on the injury report to see if guys like Latavius Murray, Theo Riddick, Phillip Dorsett, etc. are going to play. If you have any specific questions, or want to yell at me about any of the info above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's been a brutal season thus far for injuries, so hopefully your team is surviving alright through 5 weeks. Now that we're a handful of weeks in, things are starting to get clearer with this year's rookie crop...unfortunately not many of them among high picks have been able to carve out a big role, so the list of plug-and-play rookie starters is a short one, but there is still plenty to sift through. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 6...
Rookies to Start:
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Howard has been phenomenal over the past two weeks, and it's safe to say at this point he's ahead of Jeremy Langford even when he returns from injury. Jordan should be a strong play again this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven't given up a ton of RB points, but they rank just 29th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, and have allowed over 4 yards per carry to each starting RB they've faced. The Bears' offense has shown some life and balance with Hoyer and Howard leading the way. I like Howard's chances to get 20 carries in this one, and I expect him to find 80+ yards and a great chance at a TD. He's played like an RB1 the past 2 weeks, and he should be a safe RB2 this week with upside for more again.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Despite a brutal matchup this week, Zeke is a locked-in every-week starter at this point. I would probably fade him in DFS, but I wouldn't be able to sit him in season-long leagues. The Packers have allowed under 50 rushing yards to opposing RBs in each of their 4 games, rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, and allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. With that said, Zeke has been steamrolling teams lately and will get enough volume to be a passable RB2 even if the Packers are able to slow him down.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Dak has been eerily consistent so far. He’s put up exactly 17 points (ESPN standard scoring) in 3 of his past 4 games, and 22 in the other. He should be in that ballpark again vs. a Packers’ secondary that is still trying to get healthy. The Packers rank 19th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow opposing QBs an average of…17 points per game. Look for Dak to be a mid-range QB2.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 6: @Was.): Last week, Baltimore fell to Washington mainly because they got away from running the football despite having a ton of success when they did run. I don’t expect the Eagles to make the same mistake this week, so you should see a bunch of Ryan Mathews in this one. Washington ranks a middle-of-the-pack 16th in pass defense DVOA, but dead last in that metric for their run defense. They’ve also allowed just 3 passing TDs in their past 4 contests. Wentz is a borderline option in 2 QB leagues this week.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): We saw the ‘bust’ side of the boom-or-bust proposition that is Fuller last week, but the matchup gets much lighter this week. Indy ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA, and I would expect their top cover corner Vontae Davis to be assigned to cover Hopkins for most of this one. Davis has allowed 12 catches for 118 yards and zero TDs on 20 targets in the three games he’s played in, or 4-39-0 on 6.3 targets per week. The Texans’ offense has been ugly the past few weeks, so there is some downside here, but with the Colts giving up 307 passing yards per game…they have to go to someone. I expect this week to be more of a boom than a bust. Fuller is an upside WR3 this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): I wouldn’t blame you if you can’t bring yourself to start Shep this week. He’s had a rough couple of games and the Giants’ offense just seems broken. The Ravens have struggled more with perimeter receivers than slot guys like Shepard, but they have given up 9 WR touchdowns in the past 4 games. For TD upside alone Shepard is back on the WR3 radar this week. I still trust his talent, and it’s just a matter of time until this offense gets on track.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): Drew Brees at home is always a good situation for New Orleans pass catchers, and the Panthers have showed some vulnerability over the past couple weeks. They are still a tough defense, and are tied for the 10th-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs despite giving up 52(!) to the Falcons. I would still rather start Cooks or Willie Snead this week, but Thomas is definitely in play as a WR3 or Flex option. Over his past 7 home games, Brees has thrown 26 touchdown passes with at least 3 in each game.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Antonio Gates should be getting healthier, and the matchup isn’t ideal with Denver allowing zero TE scores thus far, but you could do worse than Henry this week. I would expect him to still play about as many snaps as Gates if not more, and with the Broncos’ corners being so good against WRs, TE has been a good place to attack their defense. Denver hasn’t exactly faced any top end TEs after week 1, but they did allow lines of 7-73 to Greg Olsen and 5-67 to Cameron Brate this season. Henry is only in play as a low-end streamer, but unlike most TE streamers he should provide at least a handful of points even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): It's unlikely that Lynch starts again this week, but if Siemian isn't able to make the start, Lynch is a consideration as a QB2 streamer for 2-QB leagues. He wasn't impressive in his first start, but he had looked good the week before after Siemian was hurt. There is a decent floor in this matchup, with the Chargers allowing 300+ passing yards in 4 of their first 5 games, and 2 passing TDs in 4 of them as well, but counting on a rookie in his second career start to hit those numbers is a risky proposition.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Don’t get cute here in 2 QB leagues. It’s likely that Kessler gets the start this week and has handled himself fairly well, but the Titans’ defense has been better than you probably think it has. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. This is not a great spot to take a chance on Kessler, even if you’re desperate in a 2 QB league.
RBs Jalen Richard & DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. KC): With Latavius Murray due back this week, the running back split will be too unpredictable to feel comfortable starting any Raiders' back if he actually plays. As of Wednesday, Murray still isn’t practicing, so both Richard and Washington would be bumped up to the Borderline section if Latavius indeed sits again. They would both be on the Flex radar. It’s a juicy matchup, with the Chiefs allowing the 6th-most RB fantasy points, and allowing at least 95 RB rush yards in each game. Richard was more productive than Washington last week, but both men had the exact same number of touches. I would expect a similar split this week if Latavius is a no-go. I still have no feel for which will be better on a weekly basis, so proceed with caution here.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Head coach Jay Gruden mentioned that he thinks Kelley has earned more carries, but there’s no telling how many more that means. He had just 3 carries last week, and just 8 on the season for a paltry 29 yards. His role may increase a bit this week, but third downs still belong to Chris Thompson and the Eagles have been stout against the run, allowing the 5th-fewest RB fantasy points per game and ranking 7th in run defense DVOA. I would need to actually see the workload increase play out on the field before I’d consider him in my lineups.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 6: vs. LA): There’s a chance that Washington will be able to play this week, but things aren’t started on the right foot after he missed practice Wednesday. Even if he’s able to play, this is Theo Riddick’s backfield, and the addition of Justin Forsett only clouds Washington’s outlook further. You’d be best served waiting to see how this backfield split shakes out this week. The only Lions’ back I’d feel okay playing is Riddick.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): There's no reason to fire up Dixon just yet. He's still an interesting stash, but he didn't have a great debut, splitting passing down work with Buck Allen and not making a big impact with his opportunities. He'll likely continue to work in as a receiving back, but with the Jim Trestman firing, the Ravens likely won’t target their RBs in the passing game as often. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing RBs. Take a wait-and-see approach with Dixon.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Perkins is already fighting with Bobby Rainey, Orleans Darkwa, and possibly Rashad Jennings for snaps and touches, and this week the Giants face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points in the league. No thanks.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Sharpe had been seeing at least 7 targets per week in the first 4 weeks, but his efficiency with those targets hasn't been where it needs to be (11-113-0 on 25 targets over the past 4 weeks). Last week, with Tennessee playing from ahead for much of the game Sharpe saw just 4 targets. The Titans are a 7-point favorite, so I'd expect more of the same this week. If you start Sharpe, you're just hoping for a TD.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 6: @NE): The Patriots are allowing just 26 yards per game to WRs who aren't their team's number 1 or 2 WR, and Boyd has been averaging just 15 yards and 4 targets per game over the past 3 games. He wouldn't be near my lineup.
Rookie on Bye: WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): Booker is still more of a high-end injury handcuff than anything, but his matchup this week makes him an intriguing flex option in deeper leagues. He’s flashed when given the opportunity, and he’s been slowly getting more opportunity. In week 5, Booker handled 10 touches to CJ Anderson’s 14. It’s unknown if he’ll continue to take that big a chunk of the work going forward, however. Booker was targeted in the passing game 6 times in week 5 after receiving just 3 targets total in the first 4 weeks. I question if any of that is a product of Paxton Lynch being the QB. At any rate, the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and Booker is likely to see close to 10 touches again. There is upside there for a solid performance.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Henry is still clearly second-fiddle to DeMarco Murray, but it was nice to see him get involved again last week with 7 carries and a robust 7.7 yards per carry. The Titans are a touchdown favorite this week against a Browns team that has allowed 18+ running back points in 4 of their 5 games. There could be an opportunity for some garbage time carries for Henry, and possibly his second game with double-digit carries on the year. He’s no more than a desperation Flex for deeper leagues or a DFS tournament punt play, but the matchup could work in his favor this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your lineup decisions. I'm quickly learning that this new injury designation setup is a nightmare, so make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report and not play an inactive player. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about stuff you think I'm way off on, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.