Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

As the longest sports drought of any of our lifetimes stretches on, we’re all desperate for some kind of content. The modern NFL is a 12-month a year league now, but even so, we’re stuck in the slow part of the season. The draft is complete, and now it’s a long (possibly very long) wait until the season starts. Let’s try to quench our thirst and have a look at what changes the 2020 NFL season will be bringing us.

The Raiders are now the Las Vegas Raiders. This is probably a move that we will get used to quicker than Chargers moving to Los Angeles. I’d put money on hearing “San Diego” more than “Oakland” on podcasts this season.

Fantasy Impact: Probably not much, however I do wonder if players will be a bit more hungover than usual when playing a road game in Vegas. Players could run into some heat issues with early season day games, but we’ll have to check out the schedule when it’s released tomorrow.

The Rams and Chargers are expected to begin the season in their new stadium, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. Finally, both teams will have a permanent home after years of squatting when they moved to Los Angeles.

Fantasy Impact: Again, not much at all, although the Chargers will probably go from the crowd being 50% away fans to being about 80%. Once fans are allowed to attend games again, that is. Until then, maybe the Chargers have a slight advantage over the league for the same reason – they’re used to not having any fans.

One more team from each conference will make the playoffs. With the new system, only the top seed will have a bye week. This will likely result in more teams having something to play for, whether it’s seeding or a playoff berth, through weeks 16 and 17.

Fantasy Impact: Short term, I don’t see much change. Hopefully, this gets rid of any questions of players resting during week 16 (which always makes for a difficult sit/start decision). Long term I could see some leagues extending right to the end of the regular season, if the final week of the season winds up being more reliably competitive. Of course, this will all get rebalanced again next year when they introduce the 17 game schedule, which will definitely change the fantasy football season length.

There’s a new collective bargaining agreement between the league and the NFLPA. There is no threat of a lockout or strike for another 10 years, so, there will be no repeat of the 2011 offseason.

Fantasy Impact: Aside from the additional playoff teams and 17 game schedule, there will be 2 more active players on each team each game day. These players are at the end of the roster and will generally provide depth and not be impact players, but this could affect the bottom end of deeper leagues, spreading out the work that a 4^th receiver or a 3^rd running back might see. On the flipside, you might end up seeing more specialists making the active roster, specifically guys who do not contribute on special teams, but now may find a small role on game day.

Rule change proposals are set to be voted on at the spring meetings, currently scheduled for May 19-20. There are not any major changes, but some noticeable ones include not recommending renewing the pass interference replay review (no vote needed), adding a “sky judge” style official, and eliminating Bill Belichick’s dead ball foul trick to burn time off the clock.

Fantasy Impact: The only rule changes that could impact fantasy football are the return of the OT period to 15 minutes and the option of a 4^th & 15 play from a team’s own 25-yard line in lieu of an onside kick attempt. Again, none of these changes are official yet, they are just the ones that have been recommended by the Competition Committee.

The international games for 2020 have been cancelled. The Jaguars were scheduled to host two home games in London, as well as one for Miami and one for the Falcons. The Cardinals were also scheduled to host a game in Mexico City later in the season. Understandably, international travel has been cancelled for the NFL this year due to Covid-19.

Fantasy Impact: No more worrying about 8:30am (Central Time) starts! No more missing setting your lineup because you went out on Saturday night. Everyone has an equal home game schedule this year, so no wondering what it’s like for players having to travel all the way to London and how they deal with the jet lag.

One of our newest segments on the podcast is Pick Your Poison, where Dave, Jason and a guest pick between two close players based on the drinkfive.com player rankings. This week we were joined by site contributor Mike Mocerino. Our choices will be listed below each of the matchups. Let us know in the comments which players you would pick!

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (#6) @ PHI or Drew Brees (#7) @ TEN

Dak Prescott was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time in his career. This really isn’t significant for his matchup, I just thought it was an interesting tidbit to illustrate his durability. Don’t worry about Prescott’s availability for Sunday – he has a decent matchup. The Eagles are somehow giving up the 19^th most points to opposing QBs, while giving up the 3^rd most points to opposing WRs. Regardless of any anomalies you may find with Prescott, he should be in shape to have a very high floor this week against the Eagles.

Last week Drew Brees broke two impressive records, the all-time TD record and the single game completion percentage. What does he do for an encore? I suspect he’s going to throw the ball to Michael Thomas an awful lot. The Titans are giving up the 18^th most points to opposing QBs, and have only surrendered more than 22 points to one player all year, Patrick Mahomes. Brees has 9 TDs in his last 2 games, and 16 in his last 5 – I expect him to continue to ride high going into the playoffs, though his ceiling in this game is probably a little lower than the last 2 weeks.

Mike: Drew Brees, Dave: Dak Prescott, Jason: Drew Brees

Matt Ryan (#11) vs JAX or Ryan Fitzpatrick (#12) vs CIN

Ryan gets the struggling Jaguars at home, a team that gives up the 11^th most points to opposing QBs. Last week he targeted Julio Jones a whopping 20 times, and if he wants to win this completely meaningless game, then he might as well target him another 20 times. The Jaguars have given up big games to Rivers, Mahomes and Tannehill this year, and have recently kept Winston to under 11 points, so they’re kind of all over the place. Matt Ryan has a range of just 18.5-21.3 over his last 3 games, and has not put up a really big game since he went down with an injury in week 7.

Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball an awful lot this year, with at least 37 attempts each of the last 5 weeks. He has 2 games with no TDs in that span, however he did manage to rush for 65 yards in one of those. Regardless, they were against tough defenses, Buffalo and the Jets – his opponent on Sunday, the Bengals, are definitely not that. They are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing QBs. They have given up 7 games of 20 points or more this season, including Lamar Jackson’s 2-30 point games. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw the ball a ton – he’s averaging 38 attempts per game since week 7 and he’s the QB7 over the last 4 weeks.

Mike: Matt Ryan, Dave: Matt Ryan, Jason: Matt Ryan

RB

Melvin Gordon (#17) or OAK or Devin Singletary (#18) @ NE

Melvin Gordon’s snap share has dipped lately, hitting a season low of 40% last week after a high water mark of 65% just a few weeks prior. Gordon also carried the ball only 7 times, the fewest he’s seen all year. The one bright spot is that he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games, and that’s his high on the season. He’ll be facing Oakland, who give up the 13^th most points to opposing RBs, though they did surrender 19.3 to Gordon when they played back in week 10.

Devin Singletary, aka the TRUTH, has been used a lot more on the Bills. He’s seeing a 70+% snap share every week since week 11, after having a max of 68% before that. He’s got almost 18 carries per game over that time period as well and is the RB18 over the last 4 weeks. Singletary has good volume that you can chase, however his biggest problem is his opponent this week, the Patriots. New England is giving up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing RBs, though last week Joe Mixon set a season high mark against them of 15.6 points.

Mike: Mike Singletary, Dave: Melvin Gordon, Jason: Melvin Gordon

Le’Veon Bell (#24) vs PIT or Raheem Mostert (#25) vs LAR

There’s been lots of flippant talk of #RevengeGame(s) this year, but this one could be real. Bell will face his former team, and probably better for him that this is in New York (Jersey) rather than Pittsburgh. Bell has struggled both on and off the field with his team lately, but he needs to have an impressive showing in order to market himself to a new team for next season. The Steelers are giving up the 6^th fewest points to opposing RBs. They have only given up 5 double digit performances all season, and several of those were very flukey, like to David Johnson in week 14, Rashaad Penny in week 2 and Jeff Wilson (the week doesn’t matter there, it’s just an anomaly). Bell still hasn’t broken 100 rushing yards this season, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher either.

Mostert is the kind of player that you picked up late and probably helped many teams make and win in the playoffs. Last week he disappointed with a 9.9 point performance, but his role on the 49ers should still be pretty safe. The game against the Falcons was something to forget for the Niners, and considering they fumbled the ball 4 times, I don’t expect a repeat. Since Matt Breida had 2 of those fumbles, I don’t see him overtaking Mostert, and Tevin Coleman has very clearly moved from the Guest House to the Dog House, with only 4 carries last week and only 13 touches in the last 3 games. The Rams are giving up the 14^th most points to opposing RBs, a number that is skewed by the fact that they gave up 48 points to Zeke and Pollard just last week.

Mike: Raheem Mostert, Dave: Le'Veon Bell, Jason: Le'Veon Bell

WR

Kenny Golladay (#14) @ DEN or Stefon Diggs (#15)  vs GB

Kenny Golladay is a very talented receiver, in fact, he broke a record that even Megatron didn’t have – he’s the first Lions receiver to have 1,000 yards in two of his first three seasons. Unfortunately, his QB is David Blough (that name again is David Blough) and that really sucks from a fantasy perspective. Blough has only 3 TDs in his 3 games, but he is throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging about 41 attempts per game (probably because the Lions are always losing). It doesn’t get any easier against Denver this week, who are giving up the 8^th fewest points to opposing WRs. The silver lining is that Denver is giving up big numbers to a lot of #1 WRs since Week 11 to guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill and Allen.

Speaking of a fellow NFC North wide receiver, Stefon Diggs has not been lighting it up lately, averaging only 7.5 points per game over the last 3 weeks. Diggs has had the volume, with 24 targets over that time, but his matchups have been tough. This week against Green Bay is kind of a middle-of-the-road matchup. They are giving up the 14^th fewest points to opposing WRs and held Diggs to 8.9 points back in Week 2. With Adam Thielen returning to the mix, Diggs is a mixed bag and more of a risk to than he was in the middle of the season.

Mike: Kenny Golladay, Dave: Stefon Diggs, Jason: Kenny Golladay

Anthony Miller (#31) vs KC or John Brown (#32) @ NE

Anthony Miller has been lighting it up lately, well, for a Bears WR anyways. Over his last 3 games, he has 42 total points and his target volume has been very high. He saw 13 targets in Wk 13, then just 4 the next week, but scored a TD. Finally he had another 15 targets last week in Green Bay. Over the last 5 weeks, he is averaging over 10 targets per game, so it’s clear that he’s becoming a favorite of Trubisky. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have really fixed their secondary this season and are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing WRs. Since Week 3, they have only given up 3 double digit performances. The Chiefs are much weaker against the run, though they’re also likely to get out to an early lead, so I do expect the Bears to continue to throw the ball, even against a tough passing D.

John Brown has had a breakout season this year (he was even our sleeper pick on the Bills during the preseason). He’s broken 1,000 yards for the second time in his career, and is easily having the best season of his career, with high marks in receptions, yardage and yards per game with 2 games still left to go. Unfortunately for him this week, he’s going to be shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots league leading pass defense. They give up the fewest points to opposing WRs by almost 3 points compared to the next team on the list. They’ve only given up 5 double digit performances all year, all of them to guys who scored TDs. They’ve allowed just 3 receiving TDs to WRs, which means that one of those performances contained a rushing TD, and the other contained a passing TD. This defense is really good.

Mike: Anthony Miller, Dave: Anthony Miller, Jason: Anthony Miller 

TE

Tyler Higbee (#5) @ SF or Austin Hooper (#6) vs JAX

Higbee has 3 straight 100 yard games over the last 3 weeks, and he’s just been tearing it up since taking over for Gerald Everett. Going in to week 13, Higbee had 884 career yards, and he’s increased that number by 37% since then. He’s already the TE14 on the season, and is the TE4 over the last 4 weeks. Higbee will be facing the 49ers defense, who give up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing TEs this season, though in weeks 13 and 14, they gave up big games to both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook.

Austin Hooper was leading all TEs in fantasy scoring when he went down with an injury and sat out Weeks 11-13. He has not produced since coming back, though he’s had 6 targets per game and probably scored a TD last week that was not ruled a TD. This week Hooper faces the Jaguars, who give up the 10^th most points to opposing TEs. Just last week they gave up a 10 catch, 122 yard performance to Darren Waller, so I expect that Hooper can get open and go back to his production that he had earlier in the year, especially since Jacksonville is likely to focus on Julio Jones.

Mike: Tyler Higbee, Dave: Tyler Higbee, Jason: Austin Hooper

O.J. Howard (#11) vs HOU or Dallas Goedert (#12) vs DAL

OJ Howard has not been a stellar TE this season, but he’s basically the default #2 target on the Bucs after their WR group has been decimated by injury, with 3 guys going down in the last 2 weeks. Howard has 19 targets in his last 3 games, and that number should just go up this week against Houston. The Texans give up the 6^th most points to opposing TEs, including double digit performances each of the last 2 weeks. I expect Howard to be used a lot and Houston will be able to focus on him since there’s not a lot of other options, however Howard is an ok spot start if you’re in a pinch.

Dallas Goedert has been a TD dependent TE on a team that also has a depleted WR group, but he’s way behind Ertz when it comes to a share of the targets. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks, though his high is only 8. Goedert is a high floor, low ceiling type player, just remember that the floor for most TEs is still pretty low. Dallas is giving up the 11^th most points to opposing TEs, and just last week got torched for 111 yards by Tyler Higbee. Dallas has given up 5 TDs to TEs this year, and Dallas will have to score a TD against Dallas to make Dallas a good start. Confused yet? Well I’m done, so good luck this week!

Mike: O.J. Howard, Dave: O.J. Howard, Jason: Dallas Goedert

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

43 Yards from Scrimmage

On Sunday, Alvin Kamara put up 43 total yards, while his team put up 46 total points – to call this a disappointment is a massive understatement. Kamara’s entire season has been a flop, really. He’s only scored 2 TDs on the year, both of them in Week 3. He’s only averaging 8.1 points per game since the Saints came off the bye and he returned from injury. During this time, the Saints have put up at least 26 points in 4 games, and they’re just not using Kamara. He needs to remain on your bench if you don’t want to be disappointed again through the fantasy playoffs. Meanwhile, the rest of the Saints were feasting in their loss to the 49ers. Drew Brees led the week at QB with 40 points, and Michael Thomas added 11 receptions to his amazing season total. Thomas now has 121 catches, which is almost 30 more than the 2^nd highest total, to go along with a league leading 1,424 yards. All these crazy numbers, and the Saints didn’t even win the game.

2 of the Top 3 WRs

This week’s top performing WRs were not the most popular guys of the week. Leading the way was AJ Brown (26% owned) for the Titans, he averaged 30 yards per catch and put up 28.6 in standard leagues. His 91-yard touchdown had the Titans going early and was a sign of good things to come for those of us who rolled the dice on Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, meanwhile, kept the Titans offense rolling – they’re averaging 31.4 points per game since he took over the starting job. But I digress, back to the WRs. Emmanuel Sanders had a stellar game, scoring a 75-yard TD and throwing another. Sanders was started in only 31% of Yahoo leagues. Rounding out the top 3 was Diontae Johnson (12% Owned) of the Steelers. Johnson scored on a punt return and later on a 2-yard pass from Duck Hodges. Johnson was basically responsible for half of the Steelers points in their win over the Cardinals.

17.75 Yards per Touch

Austin Ekeler did all kinds of damage on Sunday, and he wasn’t even a workhorse back. Ekeler was in on only 49% of offensive snaps, and in 12 touches he managed 213 yards from scrimmage. He’s having an amazing year, currently the RB6, his ADP was RB27. He’s leading all RBs in receiving yards, and his 73 receptions are tied for 11^th among all players in the NFL. Ekeler is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per touch in standard leagues, and an amazing 1.44 yards per touch in PPR scoring. The Chargers punked the Jaguars and are now outscoring their opponents 75-20 when playing in Florida this year. Lucky for the Bucs, they don’t have the Chargers on the schedule. Hell, the Chargers even got Tyrod Taylor in on the action – he completed 5 passes and threw for a touchdown.

7 Made Field Goals

It was a day for kickers to swing your fantasy playoffs one way or another. For the Dolphins, Jason Sanders was 100% of their offense, converting on 7 of his 8 field goal attempts, kicking 243 yards of field goals. His one missed FG is the difference in the game, as the Dolphins only managed the 21 points provided by Sanders. Overall, Sanders put up 24 fantasy points, good for the 14^th highest score of the week. Younghoe Koo also had a great game, scoring 18 fantasy points of his own – he’s averaging 12.6 points per game since Week 10 and even recovered a fumble on Sunday. We also saw Will Lutz and Robbie Gould put up 13 each in a ridiculous duel that saw 94 total points scored. In that match, both teams surpassed the Vegas over/under line, which opened at 45.

26 TDs and 23 INTs

Jameis Winston had another huge game on Sunday, in both number of scores and turnovers. For the third time this season, he started the game with a pick on his very first pass. Still, it would up being a ridiculous game for Winston, who put up a season-high 456 yards and 37.74 fantasy points. His season totals of 26 TD and 23 INT are pretty ridiculous, and he could wind up being the first player to break the 30 and 30 threshold. It’s anybody’s guess where he winds up playing next year, it could be the Bucs, but it’s just as likely to be somewhere else. Either way, Winston is likely to be the most volatile player worth watching, after all, he’s the QB5 on the year – second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Games with 100+ Rushing Yards

Last week Lamar Jackson played on Monday night, so I didn’t have my usual opportunity to gush about his absurd statistical season he’s having this year. Allow me to quickly remedy that by pointing out that Jackson now has 4 games with at least 100 rushing yards, a feat that has not been done by any QBs in the history of the league. Jackson’s season total is now up to 977 rushing yards and he could pass Mike Vick’s single season record of 1,039 yards next week. Jackson’s opponent next week, the Buffalo Bills, have given up 109 rushing yards to opposing QBs all season, though Jackson has the ability to go ahead and double up their total on the season by the end of the game. Now 50 fantasy points ahead of the field, Jackson has wrapped up the unofficial Fantasy MVP award for this year, and is the front runner for the actual MVP award, and it’s not even really close.

2 TDs and a Blocked Kick

Taysom Hill had a hell of a game on Thursday night. This may be the first instance I’ve seen of a third string QB outscoring a starting QB (who played the entire game) in fantasy scoring. Hill had 16.50 points thanks to a rushing and a receiving TD, while Drew Brees put up only 11.26 points, his lowest effort of the season. Hill even blocked a punt early in the game, which probably gave him even more points in leagues that feature IDPs. Maybe we could make a special flex position for guys like Hill who are only QB eligible, but never actually play QB. Meanwhile, Hill’s teammate Michael Thomas finally dropped a pass. He had a streak of 198 receptions over 22 games without dropping a pass, just an incredible stretch for him. Thomas had only 6 receptions on Thursday, but he’s still on pace to break the single season receptions record – as long as he doesn’t drop any more passes.

27.90 Fantasy Points

If you had DeVante Parker as the WR1 for the week, then congratulations, you ought to go play the lottery. The 2015 pick has been a bust for years before actually emerging as a solid WR this season. He has at least 91 yards and 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games and is on pace for a really respectable season of 70 receptions and 1100+ yards. Parker finished with the 3^rd most points overall for Week 13 and has the 3^rd most points at WR over the last 4 weeks. Props also go to his teammates Jason Sanders and Matt Haack for executing a very strange play on 4^th down for a touchdown. It was apparently a fake FG, though it did not look like any fakes I’ve ever seen. It did, however, remind me of that awful 4^th down trick play that the Colts tried back in 2015.

25 Fantasy Points in the Last 4 Weeks

The New England Patriots D/ST have not put up points lately, only 25 points in the last 4 weeks, but are still 45 points ahead of 2^nd place. The pace at which they were scoring early in the season obviously could not be sustained, though they are still doubling up the 10^th highest scoring D/ST. That’s a hell of a head start. The Patriots have yet another tough matchup next week when they host the Kansas City Chiefs, but their prospects of being the top D/ST returns in Week 15 and 16 against the Bills and Dolphins. Hopefully the team is healthier, not in an IR sense, but mostly healthy enough so they can all travel in the same enclosed space without worrying about disease spreading rampantly. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a team taking two planes because so many of its players are ill.

25.28 Fantasy Points per Game in the Last 4 Weeks

Derrick Henry is crushing it at RB lately, averaging 25.28 points per game over his last 4 games. This makes him the top RB during that time period and second to only Lamar Jackson. It would be easier to count the games this year that Henry does NOT have a touchdown; that would be 3. He’s scored 11 TDs total, just one off his career high he set last year. He’s already set new career highs for rushing and receiving yards. Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has 496 yards rushing and 5 TDs. He’s great at putting up tons of points in bunches, and he’s currently in the midst of one of his best streaks of his career. Meanwhile, the Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and are in the wild card hunt, thanks to Ryan Tannehill. He’s a top 10 QB over the last 4 weeks and leads the league in yards per pass attempt at 9.2y/a since Week 5. The Titans still have 2 games against the Texans which will go a long way to deciding the division winner.