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It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

16 Total TDs

 

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7^th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

 

2 Receptions for the WR1

 

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9^th season, on his 5^th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27^th in total points and 26^th in total yards.

 

10 TEs over 10 Points

 

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

 

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

 

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3^rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

 

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

 

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing RBs.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

14 Fantasy Points in 12 Minutes

 

Thursday night, we were treated to another marvelous fantasy performance from the New England Patriots D/ST. They put up a total of 28 points, good for the 7^th highest fantasy score on a week with some gigantic point totals.  The Patriots accounted for 15 of their points in just the 4^th quarter alone, starting it off with a sack of Matt Ryan on the first play of the quarter. They followed that up with 4 interceptions of three different passers, one of them being returned for a touchdown. They are now averaging 16.8 points per game over the last 5 weeks and are the top D/ST on the season, beating out the Buffalo Bills D/ST by 17 points. The Bills, the previous leaders in the position, did themselves no favors last week with a shocking -4-point performance, the worst score that can be put up by a D/ST.

 

1.48 Points Per Touch

 

Jonathan Taylor had a massive 35 total touches in his incredible game this weekend. Taylor had a career high 32 rushing attempts, scored 5 TDs (his previous career high was 2), and had 204 yards from scrimmage. His career high there is 254, so he has some work to do on that front, I suppose. Taylor scored 51.9 points on the day and managed to average 1.48 points per touch – anything north of 1 point per touch is generally considered very good from an RB. Taylor is now up to 1.10 points per touch on the season, which is incredible for a workhorse back who has 225 touches on the season now. Not to be outdone in efficiency, Austin Ekeler had a massive 2.26 points per touch on Sunday night. Ekeler might not have found the end zone 5 times, but 4 wasn’t bad, on his way to 38.5 total fantasy points and a distant second place finish for total fantasy points on the week. Ekeler is the first player in 10 years to have 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs in the same game. The last time it happened was Maurice Jones-Drew on December 11, 2011.

 

253.04 Fantasy Points

 

The number one player in all of fantasy player this season is now Jalen Hurts, just as we all suspected. Hurts has managed this with a 61.6% completion rate, good for 34^th among qualifying QBs, and a 90.4 QB rating, good for 26^th among qualifying QBs. Hurts is making a mockery of what we once considered to be a good QB in the league, but it’s hard to argue with his 618 rushing yards (9^th among all players) and 8 touchdowns on the ground (5^th among all players). He does have a TD to INT ratio of 13:5 which, admittedly, is not atrocious, but is certainly nothing to brag about either. If Hurts only ran the ball, he would be the RB23 on the season, but when you add in his passing stats and consider the fact that there are no particularly dominant QBs this season among the traditional talents, you get the top play in all of fantasy football. Hurts was drafted as the QB12 this year, 95^th overall on average. With a big game tonight, at least 31.14 points, Tom Brady could restore some order to all of this chaos. But then again, it’s not like me to root for Brady, so let chaos reign!

 

23 Fantasy Points Per Game

 

The RB3 on the season is still Derrick Henry, with 184.3 fantasy points in just 8 weeks, he was averaging 23 points per game when he was put on the IR. That’s still the best non-QB average points per game this season. There are only 5 QBs who have a better per-game average, by the way. Henry was on a pace to have a career year, and he still is likely to finish in the top 20 of total scrimmage yards by RBs this year, and probably will be a top-10 finisher among RBs with 11 total touchdowns. I don’t normally write these blurbs about players who are done for the season (the fantasy season, anyways), but last week we were missing 6 of the top 20 scoring RBs who were out with either injuries or bye weeks, so I thought it was appropriate to make one more toast to King Henry the Titan.

 

4.64 Yards Per Catch

 

Rondale Moore has the distinction this week of leading the league in receptions with 11. No other player had more than 9 catches, so congrats to the man who had 11 catches….and 10.6 total points in half PPR. 51 yards is all he could manage on 11 catches. Moore had 2 catches netting him negative yards. His longest catch on the day was 11 yards. Moore sits as the WR27 on the week, a feat that is absurdly hard to do when you have 11 receptions. At least he was a perfect 11 for 11 on the day, catching every single one of his targets, even if maybe he should have just gone ahead and dropped his -5-yard reception. There were 8 wide receivers who had fewer yards than he did, but still managed to score more points. All of those players found the end zone. This game rivals the stat line that Cole Beasley put up in week 9, 8 receptions for 33 yards totaling 7.3 points.

Every week, Dave posts his player rankings on our website. He’s also a FantasyPros expert, so you can find him there compared to other experts across fantasy football. Drinkfive.com is the only place you can find Dave’s rankings all by themselves, so make sure to keep an eye on it as they change throughout the week, leading into Sunday. We’re going to look at where we deviate from the expert consensus ranking to clue us in to where Dave disagrees with the masses.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE-RB), ECR 21, Ranked 17 (+4) - Stevenson had a huge fantasy day, finishing as the RB2 on the week. With a quick turnaround, even though Damien Harris looks like he’ll return, you can expect Stevenson to get the majority of the work on Thursday night. Of course, as with all Belichick led backfields, this one is subject to game script, so there’s some volatility keeping him from being a lock as an RB1

Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB), ECR 16, Ranked 20 (-4) - Barkley is scheduled to return to the Giants on Sunday, but it’s going to be a tough one for him. The Giants go to Tampa on Monday night. The Bucs are on a 2 game losing streak and are still one of the best teams against the run, giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. So, even though Barkley is back, you need to temper expectations and know that he’s a low RB2 or flex play at best.

Darrel Williams (RB-KC), ECR 23, Ranked 18 (+5) - Williams had a fantastic game on Sunday night in Las Vegas, along with most of the rest of the Chiefs offense. Catching 9 passes on 9 targets is going to keep him in the mix for sure, even when Clyde Edwards-Helaire does finally return. CEH has been designated to return, but apparently there’s still a chance he’s held out through the team’s Week 12 bye, so you can feel confident in firing up Williams at least one more week as a solid RB2 with a big upside.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN-WR), ECR 11, Rank 5 (+6) - You were already starting Chase, but I just had to point out that the WR4 on the year being ranked 11th is just too damn low. Dave has had his eyes open this year, but what’s wrong with everyone else?

DeVonta Smith (PHI-WR), ECR 23, Rank 18 (+5) - Smith had his best game of his rookie season last week, and now has two 20+ point performances in a row. He has 3 TDs in those two games, has 6 targets in each game, and has started to really bring up his catch %, now over 61% on the season. Smith gets New Orleans this week, giving up the 6th most points to opposing WRs.

Cole Beasley (BUF-WR), ECR 32, Rank 47 (-15) - Beasley has been trending way down the last 3 weeks. One of those games, the Bills scored only 6 points, but Beasley had 11 targets and could only turn that into 33 yards. Last week, he was only targeted twice and had 15 yards receiving. With Diggs also getting back on track, Beasley is going to fall way down the options list for the Bills.

Darnell Mooney (CHI-WR), ECR 41, Rank 33 (+8) - The Bears go on bye, and the rest of the league (appropriately) forgets them. In Week 9, Mooney had his best fantasy game as a pro, scoring twice. Justin Fields also had his best game as a pro. The Ravens pass defense the last two weeks has not been what it was to start the season, leaving Mooney as a WR3/Flex option for Week 11.

Kendrick Bourne (NE-WR), ECR 45, Rank 38 (+7) - Bourne led the Patriots in receiving yards and found the end zone for the 4th time this year. He now has at least 68 yards AND a TD in 4 of his last 8 games. This week’s matchup against Atlanta is a nice one, as the Falcons are giving up the 8th most points to opposing WRs. Bourne is only owned in 38% of Fleaflicker leagues.