Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

40+ Points in 2 Weeks

For the first time in his career, and perhaps the first time in history, Lamar Jackson has put up two straight 40+ point fantasy games. Through his remarkable career, he had tons of big games, but never reached the 40-point mark until week 5 of 2021. Now after week 3 in 2022, he has two more of those games on record. During those two games, he has 536 pass yards, 7 pass TD to only one INT, 226 rushing yards and two more TDs on the ground. In both games, he passed 100 rush yards, the 12^th of his career. One remarkable quirk of this stat is that Jackson wasn’t even the only 40-point scoring QB during this time – he was joined by his opponent in week 2, Tua Tagovailoa, who had 40.86 points of his own.

14% Average Ownership Rate

Two of the top 5 WRs this week basically came out of nowhere. Mack Hollins (5% in Fleaflicker) and Zay Jones (23% in Fleaflicker) are not owned in many leagues, and were started in even less. They combine for an average of just 14% ownership in Fleaflicker leagues, and also just barely combined to top Lamar with 45.46 points. Hollins was the WR2 on the week with 25.96 points, putting up 8 catches on 10 targets with 158 yards and 1 TD – he even added 4 passing yards for a cherry on top. In the drinkfive.com league, 9 of the top 20 WRs were free agents when their games started on Sunday, so it’s clearly time for us to start working the waiver wires. Pitter-patter.

16 Points on DST

Three separate teams scored exactly 16 points on their D/ST in week 3. The Panthers, Bengals, and Broncos all found different ways to lead the week with 16 points. Both the Bengals (27%) and Panthers (2%) had incredibly low ownership rates. Only the Panthers were aided by a touchdown on their way to the top spot of the week. Both the Bengals and Broncos recovered 2 fumbles and had 4 sacks. All 3 teams won their game. Special credit goes to the Broncos for doing it with the most style, getting the safety, though it was basically an unforced error by Jimmy Garoppolo. Honorable mention goes to the Eagles, who were juuust short of the party with 15 points. Turns out 9 sacks just wasn’t enough.

49 More Offensive Snaps

The Bills offense was on the field for more than 2/3rds of the game on Sunday, and moved the ball at will on the Dolphins. But the Dolphins ended the week in first place with a shiny, 3-0 record while handing the Bills their first loss. The Bills ran 92 offensive snaps, to the Dolphins’ measly 43 snaps, more than doubling them up in both offensive snaps and time of possession. The Bills also out-gained them 497-212, and couldn’t win in a game where their opponent had a “butt punt” and caused a safety against themselves. Are the Dolphins suddenly incredibly relevant and winning in many different ways? That’s a Texas-sized 10-4.

0 Rush Yards, 12.4 Fantasy Points

Does a running back need rushing yards to have a good game? That’s a hard no. In what is surely the best fantasy stat of the week, Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed 7 times for zero yards. He did score on the ground, though 4 of his 7 carries went for zero or negative yardage. His 5 receptions for 39 yards are what keep his stat line from being embarrassing. On the season, CEH is the RB3 (though Saquon Barkley will probably have something to say about that on Monday night). Edwards-Helaire has 47.1 points on the season, on only 22 carries. He has 12 receptions on 12 targets, a perfect rate which has really been the difference for him.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

45 Years Old

Tom Brady became the oldest player to start a game at 45 years hold. While this is not necessarily a fantasy stat, it’s appreciated by someone who feels themselves getting older all the time. There were also zero rookie QBs starting this week. Finally, it’s time for middle-aged men to shine.

10 Players Scoring 2-TDs Each

Through Sunday, there are 10 players who scored 2 TDs each, and in an interesting quirk, half of those players are free agents in the drinkfive fantasy league. Those players – Jamaal Williams, Dontrell Hilliard, Devin Duvernay, Jahan Dotson, and O.J. Howard – are free agents, owned in just an average of 29% of Fleaflicker leagues. Week 1 is always a fun time to revisit your entire draft and blow your team up with the waiver wire, so put your claims in now!

34.9 Fantasy Points

The high-water mark for Week 1 is 34.9 fantasy points – achieved by two players who are common subjects in this space. Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and 5 TDs. Mahomes now has 18 touchdowns in 5 opening days, a low QB rating of 123.3 on opening day, has not thrown a pick, and is 5-0.  Justin Jefferson also put up 34.9 fantasy points, having 9 receptions and 11 targets (on 9/11) and was one of the players who are owned in our league who had 2 TDs. His 184 receiving yards are a career high and his 15^th 100-yard game in his 34-game career.

8 D/STs with 10+ Points

Week 1 saw a lot of fantasy value coming from the defense/special teams slot. The Pittsburgh Steelers led the way with an astonishing 26 points. It helped a bit that they had a sack/fumble in bonus time to pad their numbers a bit. This performance was very impressive considering it came against the AFC Champion Bengals and Burrow had 2 more turnovers than he ever had in his career before. In an interesting tidbit, Burrow had the most rushing yards of his career in a single game. The Steelers are only owned in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues and play against New England next week, the offensive team that surrendered the second most points to their opposing D/ST in week 1.

5 WRs on New Teams with 14+ Points

Sometimes, a change of scenery works wonders. 5 Players on new teams – Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk, Jarvis Landry, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams – all scored at least 14 fantasy points for their new teams. Both Brown and Adams put up monster games over 20 points, picking right up where they left off with new QBs. A.J. Brown had the most receiving yards for any Eagles player in their debut game. In a case of good old home cookin’, Michael Thomas played his first game for New Orleans in 21 months, and had his best performance since December 2019. Thomas scored 2 touchdowns on his way to 20.2 fantasy points, good for WR7 on the week.

Like any rookie class, it behooves all of us to take a deeper look into who we're dealing with as our drafts get nearer. Basically, do your homework! Today, we'll look at the top 10 rookies, according to Dave's rankings (go to the RK section for these guys). We asked ourselves a few questions, like: What is their landing spot like? What kind of impact can they have in the early/late season? What does their spot on the depth chart currently look like? 

For an in-depth discussion, check out our first podcast of 2022, where we go over these guys in depth, as well as the top 10 ADP players.

Rank - Player Name (POS-TEAM) - Rookie ECR Rank (Difference between ours and ECR)

1 - Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - ECR 1 (0) - Hall was selected as the 36th pick overall and the 1st RB drafted. He is a workhorse-type RB that should take over 50% of the team’s workload this year and that transition should happen quickly, if not immediately. Sorry, Michael Carter fans. Of all the RBs from this class, Hall has the clearest path to finishing as a top 10 scorer at the position. During his three years at Iowa State, Hall was a great pass catcher – in 2021 he caught 36 balls for 302 yards and 3 TDs. The Jets’ running backs had a total of 15 drops recorded in the 2021 season, more than any other group of RBs in the league. He has also been praised for his pass protection ability and should enter the NFL as an average to above average pass-blocker – not something that every starting RB can say about themselves. Again, the Jets’ RBs allowed 15 pressures last season (4 of which were sacks), both of those stats tying for 2nd most at the position. A big play RB for Iowa State, he maximizes good blocking to create huge plays (3 rushes over 70+ yards last year, for example). PFF rates the Jets’ offensive line at #13 this season and one could argue a case for them even being a little higher in the rankings – all of this proves that there will be opportunities created for Hall this year… the Jets got their guy, and he should put up RB1 numbers from early on in the season. Week 1 against the Ravens will be a test, though!

2 - Drake London (WR-ATL) - ECR 2 (0) - London was taken by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, and was the first fantasy/skill player taken. Drake has a good chance to make an impact as a rookie, but he will be limited by the fact that the Falcons are rebuilding. The Falcons returning WRs had just 31 receptions from last year, all of them from Olamide Zaccheaus. This is basically an entirely new WR group. While he may slot in as the WR1 as early as the start of the season - he will still have to contend with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson for touches. It’s certainly feasible that he leads the team in targets by the end of the year. He averaged 14.8 targets per game at USC last season. Drake and the Falcons will be limited with Marcus Mariota as their starting QB - I suspect they will go shopping for an early first round QB in the 2023 draft unless Mariota far exceeds expectations.

3 - Ken Walker III (RB-SEA) - ECR 5 (+2) - Walker was drafted with the 41st overall pick from Michigan State. With Chris Carson retiring from the NFL yesterday after undergoing neck-fusion surgery in December of last year, the RB depth chart in Seattle has Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker firmly entrenched at the top. Without Russell Wilson’s dual-threat abilities - which limited options for defenders - and considering their league-worst offensive line (according to PFF) the offense will struggle mightily. But even low scoring teams have to start some kind of offense - and whether that offense is led by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, or even Jimmy Garropolo, it will be a primarily rushing offense that coach Pete Carroll brings back onto the field in 2022. Walker led the nation last year with over 1,000 yards after contact, and could absolutely end up as the primary back in Seattle later this season, but that’s only likely to happen if Rashaad Penny is unable to maintain his position as the starter. Penny led all RBs in production over the last stretch of 2021, running for over 700 yards in the last 6 games. He has had injury concerns and issues in the past though, and signed a one-year contract earlier this year to keep him with the Seahawks but only until 2023. It’s reasonable to project, then, that whoever the starter in Seattle is will have at least low-end RB2 value based purely on volume, and that it could be Walker that ends up closing the year with that title. 

4 - Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) - ECR 4 (0) - Garrett Wilson was the second fantasy/skill player off the board this year, going 10th overall to the Jets. Wilson came from an Ohio State team littered with elite talent - his teammate Chris Olave went right after him at 11. In New York, he will not have the same advantage that Drake London has in joining a room with barely any returning talent. The Jets will have Elijah Moore leading the way, along with other WRs who combined for over 130 receptions last year returning in 2022. Wilson will have to be brought along slowly, and is more likely to shine late in the year, if he is to shine at all in his rookie season. It remains to be seen if Zach Wilson can be an elite QB and support multiple legit fantasy threats. Fortunately for Garrett Wilson, we do know that he can put up big numbers on a team with other elite talent around him.

5 - Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - ECR 3 (-2) - The number 18 overall pick in the draft has already been put through the ringer by sports media. I think it’s fun for them. Here are the important things to remember about Burks: 1. The Titans traded A.J. Brown because they could draft Burks as their WR1 of the future. They were already sold on him. 2. There was a lot of noise over the past several weeks about issues with asthma and conditioning, but the latest reports are already talking about big plays during practice and there have been no issues with conditioning tests leading up to training camp. Burks is a big bodied (6’2”, 220 lbs) receiver that makes both acrobatic and contested catches. He has been compared to both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans in his play style. He put up over 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year for Arkansas, and accounted for the majority of their offense. It seems likely that Burks will be selected too early in redraft leagues, however, since it may take some time for him to get up to speed with the Titans offense, the recently acquired Robert Woods is likely to suck up the majority of the targets (at least for this season), and Derrick Henry and the ground game should still continue to be the team’s focal point.

6 - Jameson Williams (WR-DET) - ECR 6 (0) - Williams was picked 12th overall by the Lions, despite having torn his ACL in the CFB Championship game back in January. He is a big play guy who had the fifth most receiving yards in the nation last year, 79 rec, 1572 yds, 15 TD. I like this landing spot in Detroit because he will be able to bolster what has developed into a solid WR group. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence as a top WR threat late last year was impressive, and shows some promise for the Lions, despite having Jared Goff as their starting QB still. Goff has not shown any aptitude for throwing the deep ball. He was 27th among 33 qualifiers for yards per attempt with 6.6, and dead last among qualifiers for intended air yards per attempt at 6.4. This measures the average depth of target. The point I’m getting at here is that Jared Goff does not throw the ball down the field, so Williams will need to make his big plays by breaking away after the catch. While I like the landing spot so that he is not the sole focus of the defense when he’s on the field, the Lions really could stand to have an upgrade at QB to get the most out of their WRs. I do not expect Williams to have any early season impact due to his ACL tear - he isn’t expected to be back until October at the earliest. He is a candidate for a late season breakout, so he can be a good waiver wire pickup once he returns to action. I do not recommend drafting him in any but the very deepest redraft leagues.

7 - Chris Olave (WR-NO) - ECR 7 (0) - Olave, out of Ohio State, was chosen 11th overall by the New Orleans Saints. They basically traded picks 98, 101, and 120, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder in order to select Olave. Not a receiver that gets a lot of yards after the catch, but he has sub 4.4 40-yard dash speed, good size at 6’, 185 lbs, and has been considered to be the best pure route runner in this class of WRs. He finished his college career as the Big Ten’s 4th leading touchdown receiver of all time. Looking at the latest footage of Michael Thomas back at practice and seeing the Saints acquire veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry earlier this year puts a damper on hopes that Olave could become a primary target in this offense for 2022. But that’s ok - he should be looked at as the WR2/3 on an unpredictable offense that could spread the ball around a lot depending on the health of Michael Thomas over the course of the season. Olave should have more of a late-season impact after we see what shakes out in New Orleans over the first half of the season, but if Thomas or Landry are not up to snuff early on, Olave will immediately slot in as a solid WR2 for the Saints.

8 - Christian Watson (WR-GB) - ECR 9 (+1) - Watson was chosen by the Packers with the 34th overall pick. This is the highest that the Packers have chosen a WR in the Aaron Rodgers era (other notables, Jordy Nelson (36), Randall Cobb (64), Davante Adams (53)). Watson comes with high expectations and a very high ceiling for his overall performance. He, unfortunately, landed on the PUP list with a still unknown injury. If he’s limited through training camp and the preseason, this will put a huge damper on his rookie season possibilities. Rodgers is not one to typically light up a rookie with targets - 38 receptions is the most any rookie has had with him. However, the Packers lost 224 targets from last year, so someone has to be there to catch the ball. As of now, there’s no indication that Watson will miss any game time, so he has the potential for action early on, but I wouldn’t count on anything significant until later in the year, if at all. He will need to pass Randall Cobb on the depth chart (a favorite of Rodgers), in order to see serious weekly fantasy relevance. This is a fantastic landing spot for dynasty purposes, however, and I think his next couple of seasons could be huge.

9 - Skyy Moore (WR-KC) - ECR 8 (-1) - Kansas City selected Moore in the 2nd round (54th pick overall) as the 13th WR off the board. With Tyreek Hill high-tailing it out of Kansas City for a big contract in Miami, the Chiefs have been gobbling up receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and already rostered Mecole Hardman (who was the 56th pick in the 2019 draft). Moore put up 94 catches for 1283 yards and 10 TDs last year at Western Michigan, and would have presumably put up bigger numbers prior to that except he was behind Seahawk receiver Dee Eskridge on the depth chart. An outside receiver with 4.41 speed, Moore is slighter of build (5’10”, 195 lbs) than the recent WR additions to the team - and profiles very similarly to Hardman. It’s hard not to see this as one more attempt to find a quick outside target for Mahomes and we will likely see Moore cannibalize snaps from Hardman as his chemistry with the long-armed QB is put to the test throughout the season. From a redraft perspective Moore is a dangerous pick that may not pan out at all this season. It is a great landing spot for a receiver, though, so who can fault the gambler for rolling the dice in hopes for a great return? Not me.

10 - Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - ECR 10 (0) - Dotson was chosen 16th overall by the Washington Commanders and has been getting heaps of praise so far during OTAs from his coaches. With Terry McLaurin holding out until the end of June, Dotson got lots of reps with new Commanders QB Carson Wentz. This landing spot is good for Dotson because he is in line to start opposite McLaurin in Week 1. Dotson was in the top 20 in receiving yards his senior year, putting up 91 rec for 1182 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Dotson appears to be one of the rookie WRs that is best poised to step into a fantasy relevant role early in the season. He’s on a team where he’s being inserted near the top of the depth chart, this team has a new QB - which means basically a new offense. He’s starting at the ground floor. I expect him to have growing pains like any rookie, but it’s a great spot and he’s a good candidate for early season success, unlike many other rookies.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

525 Passing Yards

Joe Burrow had a hell of a game on Sunday, notching the highest point total of the week - the second highest going to his teammate, Tee Higgins, who had an equally gaudy stat line. Burrow went 37 of 46 for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, tacking on 11 rushing yards just because. Burrow had 38.1 fantasy points, which was well ahead Dak Prescott’s 31.3 points (the QB2 of the week), but then again, Dak didn’t even play 3 full quarters. Joe Burrow outgained every single team in the league so far in Week 16, and I don’t see a serious challenge to that stat coming tonight. It is Burrow’s best game as a pro - his two highest passing games have come this year against the Ravens. Burrow is now the first player to throw for 400+ yards twice in one season against the same opponent, putting up a total of 941 yards against Baltimore, also a record for any QB against one opponent in a season. This is the most passing yards in a game since 2014 and Burrow now sits as the 4th highest passing yardage total of all time - just 3 shy of taking the 2nd overall spot, but still a bit behind Norm Van Brocklin’s 554 yards against the New York Football Yanks, way back when the Rams were in Los Angeles. Time is truly a flat circle.

132 Receptions

Cooper Kupp is now on pace to have a shot at breaking Michael Thomas’s single season receptions record. Some might complain that it’s easier with a 17-game season, and while that’s true, I find it mostly irrelevant. New records will not go into the book with an asterisk, and the season is unlikely to have fewer games in the future. The playing field is always changing, along with rules, and eras are just different, so deal with it and just enjoy the fun of players breaking records. Thanks for allowing me that digression - on to the numbers. Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are neck-and-neck for the most non-QB points on the season. Kupp has 325.4, Taylor has 324.2 and the next closest player is a whopping 60 points behind them. Taylor has the edge in yards gained (1,962) and touchdowns (19), but Kupp is certainly the beneficiary of the half PPR system, which has netted him an additional 66 points. At the end of this season, I’ve considered the merits of a point per first down, rather than point per reception (half or full), and I think it could be a trend that takes off in fantasy football. There are slightly fewer first downs on average, but awarding a full point instead of a half point would still boost scoring a little bit, and assign it to the players who make a bigger impact on the game.

37.4 Fantasy Points

The aforementioned Tee Higgins was the biggest beneficiary of Joe Burrow’s career game. He put up the second highest point total for any wide receiver this season, only eclipsed by Tyreek Hill’s 42.1 point performance in week 4. Higgins put up the 4th highest receiving yardage total on the season. Bengals receivers (Higgins and Chase) now have two of the top 4 receiving yardage totals on the season. Higgins has improved on nearly every statistical category from his rookie year. He’s averaging 1 more yard per reception, 1.3 more receptions per game, over 22 more yards per game, his catch percentage has jumped more than 5%, and even his yards per target has gone up by 1.4. Higgins may not have been the big storyline of the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon taking the headlines so far this year, but it’s clear that he’s rounding out into a proper star in the NFL and is a key part of one of the youngest team cores in the league.

-4 Yards Rushing

Melvin Gordon accomplished the unique feat of finishing with negative rushing yards without exiting the game early with injury or losing yards on a kneel down. To be fair to Gordon, he had a 4 yard reception, so he finished the day with a net total of zero yards from scrimmage. On average, for every carry, Gordon went backwards 20 inches. Gordon’s final 3 carries went for -3, -4, and -3 yards. He opened the game with a 4 yard carry, and could not gain more than 1 yard at a time after that, aside from his single 4 yard reception. Obviously the Broncos have a rough situation without Teddy Bridgewater, but sometimes I just like to have a little bit of fun at the expense of a guy who’s been taking carries from Javonte Williams all year! Am I a little biased? Did I draft Javonte in my dynasty league this year? Yes.

19.75 Fantasy Points Per Game

Finally, a shout out to the Dallas Cowboys D/ST squad. Over the last 4 games, they are averaging 19.75 points per game, (16.42 over the last 7). They have been absolutely dominant in real and fantasy football, winning all of their last 4 games, allowing just 14.25 points per game - and we know that 7 of those last night were just total garbage points. The Cowboys D/ST are the #1 D/ST in fantasy football. They have scored more than any kicker this year, and more points than all but 2 tight ends. They have scored 9 total touchdowns this year, and have a whopping 25 interceptions, led by Trevon Diggs who has an astonishing 11 interceptions - the highest single season total since Everson Walls had 11 in 1981. Diggs still has 2 games left to keep adding on, and as I mentioned before, I don’t care that he has more games in a season than other players.