Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Football is back, and with it comes the return of the weekly articles that drinkfive has always tried to provide on a timely basis. With 'Under the Radar' I hope to help raise some awareness of players that could make a leap in performance but are likely still available for cheap or even free on your league's waiver wire. Thanks to FantasyPros player cards, you can take a quick look at all of these guys just by clicking on the icon next to their names. Please leave any questions/comments below and remember to have fun in week 1 and wreak havoc in your leagues this year!

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/8/15: Week 1 Preview) 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Steelers @ Patriots

Tom Brady’s triumphant return after defeating the evil Roger Goodell? Maybe. The Patriots started slowly last season and will likely do the same thing this year with a depleted secondary, banged up wide receivers and rag tag group of running backs. Under the Radar: DeAngelo Williams, Markus Wheaton, Dion Lewis, Brandon Bolden, Danny Amendola

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SUNDAY MORNING

Colts @ Bills

The Colts have built up their offense with proven veterans like Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in an effort to get to the big game now, rather than waiting to draft and develop talent around Andrew Luck. Might work for them! The Bills have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, and some great offensive weapons in guys like Watkins, McCoy and Harvin but their QB situation with Tyrod Taylor under center is extremely volatile. The Colts defense is a good play here in week 1, as is any defense going up against the new guy. Under the Radar: Phillip Dorsett, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams, Charles Clay

Browns @ Jets

Not the most exciting match-up in NFL history; both teams lost the battle for relevancy pretty early on in 2014. Both teams have very solid defenses and equally unstable situations at quarterback with re-tooled receivers. Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick are less than interesting, but that doesn’t mean that the game is without standouts at their positions. Under the Radar: Eric Decker, Brian Hartline, Duke Johnson, Chris Ivory

Panthers @ Jaguars

Standout rookie Kelvin Benjamin is gone for the season, leaving Newton and the Panthers with Jonathan Stewart, Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen. That’s not enough on paper to get where they were last year, so without a superman season from Newton, they’re in trouble. The Jaguars are looking better each year, growing a good defense and turning some unfortunate seasons into good draft picks like Allen Robinson. Under the Radar: Cameron Artis-Payne, Corey Brown, T.J. Yeldon, Allen Hurns

Packers @ Bears

Sorry Bears, rebuilding really hurts the fantasy value of your players. The Packers win this one, hands down, even without Jordy Nelson. Does Alshon Jeffery get a chance to play? That news may not come out until game day, unfortunately. Under the Radar: James Jones, Richard Rodgers, Jeremy Langford, Eddie Royal

Chiefs @Texans

The Chiefs upgraded at wide receiver by picking up Jeremy Maclin and ditching Dwayne Bowe. Their other skill positions are filled to the brim with talent with names like Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce. The Texans have a killer defense that only gets better with Jadeveon Clowney included and one of the best upcoming WRs in DeAndre Hopkins. What they don’t have right now is a quarterback or a running back. Under the Radar: Knile Davis, Cecil Shorts, Jaelen Strong, Garrett Graham

Dolphins @ Redskins

The Dolphins are making strides this season both defensively and offensively. They’ve picked up wide receiver depth and talent as well as strengthening the defense with Suh and bringing on Jordan Cameron. Tannehill has improved every year and looks to keep on going with his new tools. The Redskins are struggling mightily at the quarterback position and it looks as though they have finally decided to ditch RG3 in favor of Kirk Cousins. For better or for worse, it’s a new era in Washington. Under the Radar: Jonas Gray, Kenny Stills, Jordan Reed, Matt Jones

Seahawks @ Rams

The Seahawks got better? Nuts.. Adding Jimmy Graham and Fred Jackson has increased the offensive power of this defensive juggernaut. Teams should be very afraid this year. Kam Chancellor may hold out for some or all of the season, but that’s not enough to push the Seahawks from being Super Bowl favorites. The Rams have some talent to develop in Todd Gurley but he looks like he’ll come along slowly. Their new QB, Nick Foles, is a big question mark in the Rams offense.. will he mesh with #1 WR Brian Quick? Under the Radar: Tyler Lockett, Kenny Britt, Tre Mason

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Lions @ Chargers

Megatron and Tate should find all the success in the world this year in Detroit’s offense, especially with newcomer Abdullah adding a threat to the backfield. The Chargers’ offense is a little lacking in 2015 with aging TE Gates suspended for 4 games and Keenan Allen regressing from his rookie season. New acquisition Stevie Johnson should provide a spark as well as Danny Woodhead, who is healthy once again. Under the Radar: Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Eric Ebron

Saints @ Cardinals

Drew Brees and the Saints had a losing season last year, and it’s not likely that will continue to happen. Even though he lost some important offensive tools in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, Brees has always had the ability to spread the ball around. The Cardinals will need Carson Palmer to stay healthy this season in order to make it to the playoffs, but if he can last the duration of 2015 that could mean big things for this offense. A weak point is at RB, and it’s unclear who will come out on top this year (Ellington, Johnson or Johnson). Under the Radar: Brandon Coleman, C.J. Spiller, John Brown, Jaron Brown

Ravens @ Broncos

Marc Trestman’s offense gets a good test in week 1 against the Denver Broncos – all signs point to Forsett continuing to be productive here and Steve Smith will likely shine early in the season as he has done throughout his career. The major issue here is the lack of depth at wide receiver. Look for Kamar Aiken to surprise if he can play up to the task at hand. Not much has changed for the Broncos except slightly more of a focus on the running game, with the aging Peyton Manning under center. Don’t get me wrong, Manning will still play lights out football but the Broncos will try to be more conservative to keep him healthy all season. Under the Radar: Kamar Aiken, Ronnie Hillman, Owen Daniels

Bengals @ Raiders

The Bengals will look to capitalize on what successes they have already had and keep pushing the running game with Jeremy Hill. The WR2 spot still has yet to be consistently filled and a lot of those targets will fall to TE Tyler Eifert. The Raiders have a new/young offense including guys Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray led by Derek Carr, who could take another step forward this season. Watch out for this team in 2015. Under the Radar: Michael Crabtree, Mychal Rivera, Tyler Eifert

Titans @ Buccaneers

Marcus Mariota is going to lead the Titans to a more successful season than in 2014. The big question is how much more successful? Without a lot of developed weapons, probably not that much more. Kendall Wright could shine here in PPR leagues with the volume of targets that he is slated to receive, but the rest of the team is a toss-up. The Bucs also have a rookie QB in Jameis Winston but they have more established tools on offense (Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, etc). The Bucs should enjoy more early success because of this. Under the Radar: Delanie Walker, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Terrance West

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SUNDAY NIGHT

Giants @ Cowboys

The Cowboys jump into the 2015 season with a great passing attack, but a very jumbled backfield. Neither Joseph Randle nor Darren McFadden seem to be the guy that will lead them out of chaos, so it’s more likely that this situation will just be a rotating carousel of running backs depending on who is performing better from week-to-week. The Giants look to improve on their record from last year and should be able to do just that, though they have a similarly muddy looking backfield with Jennings and Williams. Best to focus on the pass with these two teams until their running situations become more fleshed out. Under the Radar: Reuben Randle, Shane Vereen, Terrance Williams, Christine Michael

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MONDAY NIGHT

Eagles @ Falcons

We could talk about the Eagles forever – the combination of explosive talent and fast-paced play running that Chip Kelly has bottled right now in Philadelphia could catapult the Eagles to the top of the charts pretty quickly. Bradford’s health and Murray’s production will ultimately determine whether or not this team makes it in the post-season. The Falcons have a comfortable passing attack and one of the best NFL receivers in Julio Jones, but they have major issues at the running back position. It looks like Tevin Coleman will start off the season with the job, but can he really make it his? Under the Radar: Jacob Tamme, Ryan Mathews, Leonard Hankerson

Vikings @ 49ers

The Vikings have impressed in the preseason (which doesn’t mean a whole lot) with good performances from Teddy Bridgewater and Co. The return of Adrian Peterson definitely adds an air of confidence for the team, and their defense has been looking like a cohesive unit lately. Looks like the battle of the NFC North might end up between Green Bay and Minnesota this year. San Francisco has lost a ton of players on offense and defense and I’m not sure that they can successfully recover this year. One bright spot is the addition of Torrey Smith, and the sure-handed Anquan Boldin is still kickin’. Nope, things do not bode well for the 49ers in 2015. Under the Radar: Reggie Bush, Charles Johnson, Vernon Davis

Let’s get ready for some football! In our discussion we’ll mostly be talking about standard leagues unless otherwise mentioned. But, in general, just keep in mind that pass-catching RBs will be slightly more valuable in PPR leagues and we’ll all be on the same page!

So last week we analyzed both the overvalued and undervalued QBs in the NFL this season by taking a quick look at our rankings for those players vs. the ECR (expert consensus ranking from fantasypros.com) and ADP (average draft position) that the players are currently going at. This week we’ll attempt to do the same thing with RBs.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/25/15: The Preseason RB Show!) 

I say attempt, because with any offensive positional player in the NFL that is not a QB the variance is going to be higher and depend a lot more on outside factors than for quarterbacks. Not to mention the fact that the likelihood or injury goes up substantially for these players, RB especially.

John Paulsen (of 4for4.com) recently wrote an insightful column about this very subject. In trying to determine whether or not wide receivers are safer picks at various points in the draft, he crunched quite a few numbers. Ultimately, his research seems to indicate that although the top 2 RBs in any given year will generally outperform any of the other WRs in the draft, the drop-off after that point favors WR value until later rounds. For example, over the last 10 seasons (after the top 2 RBs have been taken out of the equation) 5 of the next 7 receivers offer relative value (difference between points scored and points scored by a baseline player at that position) above their trend line, while that is only true for 5 of the next 11 running backs.

Another interesting bit is that RBs taken just a little bit later (early 2^nd round) tend to outperform those taken in the middle of the first round (relative to their draft position). Anyway, just something to keep in mind. Let’s get back to it!

Undervalued RBs

Antone Smith - #52 on our rankings, ECR #75 and ADP #61. We value Antone more highly than a lot of our colleagues because he is a very dangerous playmaker on the field. Already 29 years old, Smith has never had a substantial amount of touches until the 2014 season and he ended the season with 366 yards and 5 TDs on only 36 touches. Unfortunately for Smith, he broke his leg toward the end of the season last year and finds himself striving for carries behind the split backfield of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but we know that when he gets the opportunity, he’ll make the most of it. Make no mistake, this is a flier or deep league pick only, but one that could pay off quickly should Smith see the field more than a few snaps per game.

Danny Woodhead - #25 on our rankings, ECR #42 and ADP #47. Woodhead is the little RB that could. He’s quick, scrappy and many people forget about the numbers that he put up during the 2013 season before he was injured at the beginning of 2014. In his first season on the Chargers, Woodhead rushed 106 times for 429 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TDs and put up 76 receptions for 605 yards and 6 TDs. Those numbers made him the #19 RB overall in standard scoring leagues in 2013. All signs point to Woodhead being healthy this year, and resuming his pre-injury role as a 3^rd down passing back and safety valve for Rivers which should lead to similar stats this year (although we will always plan for a regression from a career year).

Giovani Bernard - #18 on our rankings, ECR #28 and ADP #27. Bernard had a slight sophomore slump in 2014 and dealt with an injury toward the middle of the season. It seems that he is now firmly planted as the 3^rd down back behind Jeremy Hill, but even though we’re penciling Bernard in for less than 10 touches a game (down from the 16 that he averaged in 2014) he excels in the passing game and will certainly see more work in games where the Bengals fall behind on the scoreboard. At first glance it may appear that he is just a complementary back to Hill this season but the numbers say otherwise.

Chris Ivory - #20 on our rankings, ECR #27 and ADP #31. Ivory had some breakout performances in his first year with the Saints in 2010, but injuries held him back from being productive in subsequent years until he was traded to the Jets for the 2013 season. He has steadily improved there (putting up 7 TDs and almost 1000 all-purpose yards last year on 216 touches) and the other Jets’ RBs are underwhelming, to put it lightly (Bilal Powell, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley). With the recent news that Ivory may start being more active in the passing game and the current lack of quality depth at the position, we may see him in more of a 3-down role which more than warrants his position here.

Overvalued RBs

Rashad Jennings - #42 on our rankings, ECR #30 and ADP #24. Jennings had the #1 RB job for most of the 2014 season, with Andre Williams filling in at some spots and vulturing some carries as well. We’ve seen Jennings perform well, putting up 4.5 YPC in 2013 for Oakland and scoring 6 TDs that same year, but unless lightning strikes for Jennings it is likely he performs closer to his middling performance last year (only 3.8 YPC) and the Giants will form some kind of committee with Shane Vereen and Andre Williams preventing too much relevant production from Jennings this year.

Bishop Sankey - #56 on our rankings, ECR #38 and ADP #42. Sankey struggled mightily in 2014 despite being basically handed the job as lead back in Tennessee (3.7 YPC and only 2 TDs on 152 carries). With rookie David Cobb and scatback Dexter McCluster also on the squad, Sankey looks to settle in to a role as the 1a of a big committee. We’ve seen Sankey on sleeper lists and as someone to target in deep drafts but I don’t see any pluses here, especially as a part of such a young offense that has yet to prove themselves (and veteran talent Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas don’t exactly inspire trust).

Isaiah Crowell - #43 on our rankings, ECR #33 and ADP #33. Cleveland Browns.. need I say anymore? Alright, Crowell does have a little upside having scored 8 TDs last year and averaged just more than 4 YPC, but we haven’t seen either Crowell or Terrance West (both involved in a battle of irrelevancy last year for the lead back position in Cleveland) really show well on the field, which means that rookie RB Duke Johnson could just as easily find himself with the job. Seems that the overvalued RBs we’ve discussed are all having issues solidifying a role in their respective offenses.. Crowell is no different.

Carlos Hyde - #27 in our rankings, ECR #19 and ADP #17. Here’s another tough situation: although Hyde currently replaces Gore as the RB1 in that offense (which did add Reggie Bush as a passing-down back), it’s impossible to project Hyde as a top 20 pick based on his limited demonstrated skills in the NFL. Only rushing 83 times for 333 yards (4.0 YPC) last year does not tell us much, unfortunately. Even if Hyde does get the bulk of the early down work for the 49ers, though, their personnel list has been devastated in the off-season and those losses and the change to new team management does not bode well. No, it’s more likely that their offense has to pass the ball more because they fall behind in games without a dominant defense and Bush will probably factor more into that game plan than Hyde.

Over the years, many different kinds of draft strategies have come about for fantasy football leagues - I've tried to lay out the basics below for a few of the draft strategies that I see more frequently, and posed some questions that we try to answer on the podcast. Do you have any comments or insights to add? Feel free to leave them in the comments section!

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/11/15: 5 Draft Strategies to Consider) 

Best Available

It may seem perfectly obvious to some, but one very serviceable strategy during drafts is simply to take the best available player at any position that is available to you at that time. The main issue people run across when using this strategy is taking too many players at the same position. Say, for example, that the best player available on the draft board for 5 rounds in a row is a wide receiver. Should you simply continue to draft the best available player and hope to make trades later to make up any discrepancies at other positions? Should you compromise or bend your initial strategy to reach for another position that you have a bigger need at?

Zero RB
The prevailing strategy for a long time in Fantasy Football was to load up on RBs early. This was for a few reasons: RBs tended to be used as the focal point of the offense for a lot of teams (at least up until recently), RBs seemed to be more consistent than their WR counterparts on a week-to-week basis (at least up until recently) and there was a more severe drop off of talent at the position (since most teams had one particular RB that they fed the football. More recently, a lot of teams are favoring throwing the ball more consistently and using a RB-by-committee approach.
What does that information tell us? RBs are still an extremely valuable position for a fantasy football team, but recent changes to the game and to how the position is being used in the NFL have forced a shift toward WR value being closer to the top, or in some cases eclipsing the value of their more grounded counterparts. There are exceptions, and most of those involve either running backs that are also heavily involved in the passing game (Jamaal Charles & LeVeon Bell) or guys that still hold roles similar to those of the old days of smash mouth football (Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson).

Going with the Zero RB strategy asks you to forego the conventional fantasy wisdom that RBs are the most important assets to a team, and instead draft top-tier WRs, a TE and possibly a QB before dipping into the RB pool and selecting a variety of low to middle end situational guys with upside. Proponents of this draft strategy tell us that the top few tiers of RBs in the draft have the highest variance and therefore should be avoided. In other words, instead of high-risk picks at the beginning of the draft, you should be selecting guys that can offer a consistently good performance on the field while leaving some of that associated risk behind. Does this kind of strategy make sense even when you have the 1st or 2nd pick? Does the idea of Zero RB drafting get more enticing in a PPR league when WRs receive a rankings boost?

Value Based
Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a term that has been around since the 90’s. It refers to a particular strategy: by analyzing player’s past performances and calculating projections for them, and determining what the baseline player at each position is, you can determine the value of a player (which, using this strategy, is not simply how many points a player can score but rather how many more points he scores at his position than other players at the same position.

For example, although QBs score a large amount of points in most leagues, they are not usually among the most valued picks during the draft because in general they have low relative value compared to other positions at the same draft pick. That’s not to say that a player such as Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck will not score more fantasy points at the end of the year than other QBs, but the difference between their points and the QB baseline will be smaller than players like Marshawn Lynch relative to the RB baseline or Antonio Brown relative to the WR baseline. The problem is that these determinations rely on projected statistics, which are only estimations even if they are based on factual data.

Taking a look at the VBD data from 2014, for example, we can see that Rob Gronkowski was 40 points higher than the next best tight end in 2014 (Jimmy Graham). This tells us that if you can’t get Gronkowski in a draft, you should wait longer to select a tight end because their relative value decreases after Gronk. The same goes with Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. If unable to land one of these two QBs last year, you were better off waiting until later rounds and instead taking players at RB and WR that would be the difference needed to win games.

Guided Tour
A strategy that I see all too often but will always encourage people to avoid. Far too many times, people walk into a draft with a set strategy in their head – not a strategy based on player value or lack thereof, but with a strict plan of what positions to target and in what order. I used to do this too, when I first started playing fantasy football. I would look at the previous year’s performance, or what positions seemed to have the best players available at the top rounds and create a roadmap in my head for the rest of the draft. RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, QB.. or WR, RB, RB, WR, RB, RB, WR, etc.

It makes sense in a very shallow sense. This also applies to people that draft a starting lineup and then begin to select players for their bench. Regardless of which strategy you choose to adopt, you should never, ever have a preconceived idea of which rounds that you want to draft specific positions in. The draft itself should dictate that. Besides that, you’re more likely to succumb to picking a positional player at the end of a run if you are thinking in this way. Don’t do it!

Late-Round QB

The Late-Round, or “Zero QB” strategy has become a popular one recently as well. There are so many quarterbacks in this league that produce at a consistent level, that the drop-off after the first few is not very large. In this case, doesn’t it make sense to wait until later rounds when you get take someone like a Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning or Philip Rivers? Those guys all have top 10 potential but at a 9th or 10th round price in a standard league.

This is a bit of an offshoot of both VBD and Zero RB strategies, as the value in picking a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck is not deemed high enough and it makes more sense to fill those slots with players that provide more of an advantage in a match-up. Just for example, say that you’re playing against someone that took a QB in the 4th round (Drew Brees, for example). Well, instead of Brees there you could have had someone like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins. Signing on to this particular theory is as easy as saying that you would rather have DeAndre Hopkins and Ryan Tannehill than Drew Brees and Kevin White. I would. Would you?

Tips from 'Beer4TheBeerGod' – big contributor to the /r/fantasyfootball subreddit:

1. Know thy league. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his draft strategy. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings.

2. The level of risk you are willing to take should correlate with the round of the draft. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting guys like Darren McFadden or Toby Gerhart. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I'm also not a fan of taking rookies in early rounds for this reason.

3. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not travelled. In fantasy terms it's the value of the players you won't draft because of your choice, either because your positional need is decreased or because someone else will draft them. This is one of the core philosophies behind value based drafting, but it's more than just points. It requires you to not only know how you will draft, but ideally also your opponents. Will you drafting player X force your opponent to draft player Y, or will that guy still be around on your next turn? The greatest feeling in the world is when you make your pick and someone after you cries out in anguish.

4. Develop your own tools for draft day and practice with them. I started making BeerSheets because I wanted something I could print out, bring with me wherever I went, and know that I could follow it to create my team. It needed to be fast, easy to read, and provide enough information to make the right decision without overwhelming you with data. Some drafts let you bring computers, others are just yourself and your mind. Whatever the rules, make sure you have the tools available so that you can stay on top of the draft order and always get the most value.

5. Tiers are superior to rankings. There is no way to predict that player X will do better than player Y with enough fidelity to rank them before the season starts. This is why I'm such a fan of using tiers to determine the relative projections of players. Realistically if two players are ranked right next to each other then there probably isn't enough of a difference to matter and you should be considering other qualities such as historic performance, opportunity, injury risk, competition, and upside.

6. Don't be a homer, but it's okay to have multiple guys on the same team. Aside from bye weeks it's not that big of a deal. What you don't want to do is be predictable enough for someone else to exploit your tendencies. The other side of this is drafting players from your team's rival. Can you stomach having someone you hate on your team? If the value is there consider swallowing your pride. Moral victories are for losers.

7. Don't be afraid to reach. The best experts in Fantasy Football average a 60% accuracy. Remember that the numbers are just guesses, and if you have a gut feeling there's nothing wrong with going with it. In the end it's your team and you should be happy with it.

8. The less predictable a position, the later that position should be drafted. This means drafting kickers and DSTs very late unless your scoring rules are weird enough to require a special strategy. Unless your draft rules require that you fill out your roster then don't bother getting a kicker. Use that last pick on a total flyer and see if anything changes leading up to Week 1. Just don't forget to pick up a kicker off the WW before your first game.

9. The maximum value you will get for your trade bait is the draft pick you just wasted, so don't even bother. Some people exercise a strategy of picking someone up with the express purpose of trading them immediately. Remember, the four QBs you cleverly picked up even though you didn't need them were passed over by everyone else. You just sacrificed a team need for a lottery ticket that isn't likely to pay off. This is a particularly egregious mistake in the top half of the draft. This is different from drafting a late round flyer and hoping they turn out to be a sleeper, which is sound draft strategy.

10. You can lose your league in the draft, but you win it in the waiver wire. No matter how well or poorly you draft, that's only a part of the game. Once the draft is done the real game begins. Follow the waiver wire religiously, and don't be afraid to drop your late round scrubs for something more promising if you get more information. I'm less enthusiastic about preseason trades unless you have access to new information or you're fleecing a homer.

11. Mock until you can draft in your sleep. Mock drafting is a fantastic resource. Not only is it fairly fun, but it also helps you see how players will be taken and understand trends. If you can get to the point where you can instantly see a reach or a steal then when the real draft happens you'll be far more prepared.