Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

FACT:

In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.

What it means:

We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.

The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.

What it means:

Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.

A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.

FACT:

Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).

What it means:

If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.

FACT:

Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.

What it means:

The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.

Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.

What it means:

Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.

Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2^nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.

What it Means:

D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17^th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.

FACT:

The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.

The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.

What it means:

Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3^rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

What it means:

In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.

That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.