Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Another solid week as we draw closer to the midway point of the season.

If you’re like me, your fantasy season is pretty much shot, but at least we still have our confidence pool to give us…well…confidence for the rest of the season! (see what I did there?) No time to waste, another week is so close to kicking off!

Week 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

14 – NEW ENGLAND over New York Jets – The Pats have been running roughshod over the entire league to this point. Add in the fact that they love beating up on the Jets and this could get ugly.

13 – ARIZONA over Baltimore – The Cardinals have hit a bit of a slow spot on their way to the playoffs but apparently a game against the Ravens is something that every team in the league looks forward to – just ask the 49ers.

12 – INDIANAPOLIS over New Orleans – It seems like Andrew Luck may have just needed a little time off to heal his shoulder. I am back on the bandwagon…until viciously thrown off again like I was last time.

11 – SAN DIEGO over Oakland – Phillip Rivers threw for over 500 yards last week in Green Bay. Against the Raiders secondary, there is a legit chance that Rivers might reach 800 yards…ish.

10 – CAROLINA over Philadelphia – The Panthers showed last week that they are no fluke with a win in Seattle. Look for them to continue their momentum to roll over another division leader.

9 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Dallas – No Romo and possibly still no Dez for the Cowboys means no chance of winning in Jersey.

8 – Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO – The week starts with what was one of the hottest rivalries in the league just a few years ago. Now, while the rivalry is still there, its to try and stay out of the basement of the division.

7 – ST LOUIS over Cleveland – Todd Gurley is legit and has shown that he was worth the top 10 pick the Rams used on him. Look for Gurley to continue running over the league this week.

6 – Atlanta over TENNESSEE – Speaking of running over the league, his name is Devonta Freeman.

5 – Buffalo over JACKSONVILLE (in London) – The league continues to shove the Jaguars down the throats of Europeans. This year it is the Bills that try to make Jacksonville stay across the pond.

4 – WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay – Bringing back an old gem for this one – the Skins will pull this out simply because they are the home team.

3 – KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh – If Ben Roethlisberger returns for this game then flip this one around – the Steelers will win. But without him, the Chiefs will need to win this game and establish a new running game without Jamaal Charles. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that CHARCANDRICK WEST WILL HAVE THE FIRST 100 YARDS RUSHING GAME OF HIS CAREER. (even if it doesn’t happen, at least I still successfully typed Charcandrick)

2 – DETROIT over Minnesota – The Lions are off the schnide! No 0-16 season this year! One division win could provide the momentum needed to get another one.

1 – Houston over MIAMI – Two teams that have disappointed this year. Don’t let Miami’s big win last week fool you, it was against the Titans.

Around the NFL

Injuries:

Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – missed week 6 with an MCL sprain. Not guaranteed to start in week 7 but as he almost started last week according to some sources, he should be back soon. With both Percy Harvin (hip, may be out for a significant period of time) and Sammy Watkins (ankle sprain, could play next week but it’s an early game in London) possibly out, Taylor is in trouble even if he gets back on the field this week.

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) – we started the season under the impression that Sanders’ role would diminish a little in the Broncos offense, but he has been performing at a high level this year, and is the 5^th most targeted wide receivers, with 65 targets in 2015. Unfortunately, he sprained his AC joint last week, which can be a lingering injury. Thankfully, the Broncos have a bye in week 7 and we’ll have to wait and see if Sanders can get healthy leading up to week 8.

Marcus Mariota (TEN) – a grade 2 MCL injury could have Mariota sidelined for up to 3-4 weeks, so it’s very unlikely that he starts this week. Zach Mettenberger may be the Titans’ QB for a little while. If so, that doesn’t really hurt Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker.

Jeremy Maclin (KC) – A nasty looking hit resulted in a concussion for Maclin, and he is currently moving through the league’s protocol. After the loss of star RB Jamaal Charles for the season, the Chiefs may choose to play it safe and hold Maclin out a week. Make sure to watch for updates on this.

Top Performers for Week 6

QB - Matthew Stafford 405 Passing Yards, 4 Passing TD's, 37 Rushing Yards, 1 INT, 33 Fantasy Points

QB - Philip Rivers 503 Passing Yards, 2 TD's, 28 Fantasy Points

QB - Andrew Luck 312 Passing Yards, 3 Passing TD's, 35 Rushing Yards, 27 Fantasy Points

RB - Devonta Freeman 13 Carries for 100 Yards, 8 Catches for 56 Yards, 2 Total TD's, 27 Fantasy Points

RB - Chris Ivory 20 Carries for 146 Yards and 1 TD, 3 Catches for 50 Yards, 25 Fantasy Points

RB - James Starks 10 Carries for 112 Yards, 1 Catches for 5 Yards, 2 Total TD's 23 Fantasy Points

WR - DeAndre Hopkins 15 Targets, 10 Receptions for 148 Yards and 2 TD's, 26 Fantasy Points

WR - Martavis Bryant 8 Targets, 6 Receptions for 137 Yards and 2 TD's, 25 Fantasy Points

WR - Calvin Johnson 9 Targets, 6 Receptions for 166 Yards and 1 TD, 22 Fantasy Points

TE - Greg Olsen 11 Targets, 7 Receptions for 131 Yards and 1 TD, 19 Fantasy Points

TE - Benjamin Watson 12 Targets, 10 Receptions for 127 Yards and 1 TD, 18 Fantasy Points

TE - Gary Barnidge 9 Targets, 3 Receptions for 39 Yards and 2 TD's, 15 Fantasy Points

Player Transaction Trends (Yahoo)

ADD – Blake Bortles, 13k leagues. Duh! Surprised to see he was still not owned in so many leagues.. even against BUF this week, Bortles should perform well.

DROP – Sam Bradford, 9k leagues. Bradford is our QB, says Chip Kelly. Well, things are improving slowly over there but Bradford’s performance is still sub-par.

ADD – Stefon Diggs, 24k leagues. Wow, looks like a breakout here.. 19 targets for over 200 yards in the last 2 games.

ADD – Brandon LaFell, 9k leagues. Will he play this week? That’s up for grabs.. but if he does he’ll immediately be a WR2 and a stud in PPR.

ADD – Christine Michael, 12k leagues. So many sources close to the team are saying that Michael will get his chance this next few weeks to show he can be the starter in Dallas.

DROP – Charcandrick West, 10k leagues. Whoops. Looks like Jamaal Charles can’t be replaced so easily. A committee will likely form in KC.

The conclusion of week 6 means we are halfway through the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This is also around the time where fantasy teams will start to fizzle out if their managers haven't been adding depth from the wire throughout the season. Don't be that manager! Two teams are on bye this week; Panthers and Cowboys. Good luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Alex Smith (KC) - 28% owned - Well Alex Smith ended up being a bust last week as the Chiefs went full rushing attack with a lead against the Raiders all game. I still like him as a streamer for week 7 as he goes up against the Saints where he will need to pass to try and keep up with Drew Brees.  Smith should easily be a QB1 this week.

Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (BAL) - 29% owned

Running Back

Jay Ajayi (MIA) - 31% owned - With Arian Foster limited this week, Ajayi took advantage with a breakout performance against the Steelers putting up 204 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries and added a catch for 3 yards. He will have definitely earned himself more playing time going forward and I think at worst case he will split carries with a healthy Foster.

Devontae Booker (DEN) - 27% owned - Booker makes the list for the second week in a row after he continues to out produce C.J. Anderson on limited carries. On the season Booker sports a 4.7 yards per carry average compared to Anderson's 3.5. At the moment he is still a bench stash until we see an uptick in volume from him.

Honorable mentions: Dion Lewis (NE) - 25% owned, Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) - 22% owned (must grab if Doug Martin sits this week)

Wide Receiver

Ty Montgomery (GB) - 1% owned - Montgomery should be heavily involved in the Packers offense on Thursday night against the Bears as he will get snaps both at running back with James Starks out and Eddie Lacy hobbled as well as snaps at receiver with Davante Adams most likely out with a concussion. He played this dual role in week 6 and ended with a stat line of 10 catches for 98 yards and 3 rushes for 6 yards. Considering Montgomery a WR3 with a lot of upside this week.

Kenny Britt (LA) - 11% owned - Britt has quietly been performing very well this season as he is the 15th best WR in standard scoring and has the 8th highest receiving yards compared to other WR so far. With his numbers this season he should be considered a go as a WR3 until we see otherwise.

Honorable mentions: Robert Woods (BUF) - 22% owned, Corey Coleman (CLE) - 39% owned

Tight End

Hunter Henry (SD) - 35% owned - Henry appears to be a fixture of the Chargers pass happy offense as he has put up 290 yards and 3 touchdowns over his past four starts. He's currently the number 3 TE in standard scoring and has a great matchup against the Falcons coming up.

Honorable mention: Eric Ebron (DET) - 46% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens (BAL) - 33% owned - The Ravens defense has put up consistent fantasy points all season and they have a great matchup against a NY Jets team that can't get anything going on offense. There's also upside here that the Jets may start Geno Smith who is a proven turnover machine. Easily my streaming defense for the week.

Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks? Make sure to check out the podcast to find out which side we take on each player.

Quarterbacks:

Marcus Mariota (TEN)

Week 4 @ HOU – 13/29, 202 yds, 1 INT, 9.08 pts

Week 5 @ MIA – 20/29, 163 yds, 3 TD, 1 rush TD, 30.52 pts

Week 6 vs CLE – 17/24, 284 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 28.76 pts

Mariota has exploded the last two weeks, throwing for 6 touchdowns against just one interception. Mariota is still only owned in 61% of yahoo leagues, but he’s the #8 overall QB so far this season. Mariota has a very favorable schedule ahead of him, with 5 of his next 6 games against bad teams before going into his week 13 bye. Mariota has finally found some receiving targets and could easily finish the season as a top 10 QB. We’ll start the line on him at 22 points this week, at home vs IND.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Week 3 vs DET – 15/24, 205 yds, 4 TD, 26.40 pts

Week 5 vs NYG – 23/45, 259 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 17.86 pts

Week 6 vs DAL – 31/42, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.46 pts

Anyone who follows us tracking trends knows that this one was coming. Rodgers is traditionally the gold standard for fantasy football consistency, but this year, especially the last few weeks, he has looked like fool’s gold. So far this season, Rodgers looks much like he did last year in completion percentage and yards per passing attempt, two categories that he used to excel in. Now Rodgers has a short week at home vs the Bears, but he’s likely to be without both Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Will the Bears be just what he needs to get his mechanics corrected, or do his struggles continue? We’ll start the line at 19 points.

Running Backs:

James White (NE)

Week 4 vs BUF – 4/12 yds, 5 rec/50 yds, 6.20 pts

Week 5 @ CLE – 5/26 yds, 4 rec/63 yds, 8.90 pts

Week 6 vs CIN – 7/19 yds, 8 rec/47 yds, 2 TD, 18.60 pts

James White is trending up in both points and touches, mostly thanks to the return of Tom Brady. Everyone knew that the focus of the offense would be much more towards passing once Brady returned, so White’s uptick is to be expected. The biggest question with the Patriots backs has always been – How long will this last? Dion Lewis is waiting in the wings to return, though it may not happen until after the Week 9 bye. With White playing better, do you keep starting him, or offer him up as trade bait? This week, the Patriots go to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers without Big Ben. We’ll start his line at 11.

Isaiah Crowell (CLE)

Week 4 @ WAS – 16/120 yds, 1 TD, 20.20 pts

Week 5 vs NE – 13/22 yds, 4.00 pts

Week 6 @ TEN – 9/16 yds, 3.60 pts

Isaiah Crowell started out the season like he was fired from a cannon. He put up just shy of 400 yards and 3 TDs in his first four games and looked like he was headed towards top-10 RB status for the season. Then it’s like he suddenly remembered what team he plays for, and promptly saw his production drop like a rock. This is partly due to the uptick in touches for Duke Johnson Jr, but when your yards per carry goes from 6.45 (Wk 1-4), to 1.72 (Wk 5 & 6), it’s hard to keep giving him the ball. Crowell is still 90% owned, and started in 51% of Yahoo leagues last week. This week he faces the Bengals in Cincy, and we’ll set his line at 9 points, and ask, would you start him this week?

Wide Receivers:

Jamison Crowder (WAS)

Week 4 vs CLE – 3/2 rec, 21 yds, 2.10 pts

Week 5 @ BAL – 3/3 rec, 35 yds, 1 Return TD, 9.50 pts

Week 6 vs PHI – 4/3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts

Jamison Crowder has a larger role on the Redskins offense with Jordan Reed out with a concussion. It’s not settled if he’s coming back this week, but Reed is often out multiple weeks when he has a concussion. Crowder has made some big plays helping the team win each of the last two weeks. With the decline of DeSean Jackson, can Crowder step up to start filling some of that role? We’ll start the line for Crowder at 7 points for his matchup against the Lions, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing WRs.

Antonio Brown (PIT)

Week 4 vs KC – 5/4 rec, 64 yds, 2 TD, 18.40 pts

Week 5 vs NYJ – 11/9 rec, 78 yds, 1 TD, 13.80 pts

Week 6 @ MIA – 8/4 rec, 39 yds, 4.50 pts, 4.50 pts

Antonio Brown was the consensus #1 pick going into the 2016 season, and he already has 2 games where he’s scored under 5 points. It’s not time to panic with Brown, but this week looks like it’s about as tough as matchups get. His starting QB will be Landry Jones and the opposing team will be the New England Patriots. It seems like this so-called juggernaut of an offense can never get going because of injuries and/or suspensions. Brown is the only consistent part, but even this week you may consider benching him. We’ll start our line for Brown at 12 points.

Tight End:

Hunter Henry (SD)

Week 4 vs NO – 7/4 rec, 61 yds, 1 TD, 12.10 pts

Week 5 @ OAK – 4/3 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD, 13.40 pts

Week 6 vs DEN – 8/6 rec, 83 yds, 1 TD, 14.30 pts

Now those are some numbers that are just screaming consistency. Hunter Henry is easily the most impressive rookie TE this season (there were only 3 drafted, after all). Having scored a TD in each of the last 3 games, he’s also drawn 19 targets and is 2^nd in scoring over the last 4 games at the TE position. With Antonio Gates hobbled and on the way out anyways, Henry is in a perfect position to continue his breakout rookie season on a team that is always starving for pass catchers. This week, Henry faces the Falcons, who have given up the 5^th most points to opposing tight ends. Can he continue his impressive streak? We’ll start his line at 13 points.