Well Week 1 is in the books and I survived to pick again this week, albeit with significantly shorter finger nails after the slow start from the Philadelphia Eagles in their 34-17 victory at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Others in the Pool however were not so lucky with 279 of the 889 entrants eliminated in the very first week. The majority of the victims suffered at the hands of the Chicago Bears 23-20 overtime loss to the Buffalo Bills, which claimed 195 entrants. Gotta love gambling against a bunch of homers!
Week 2 has three very safe options to go with, but one team stands out above the rest. You could go with the heavily favored Denver Broncos, fresh off an impressive performance on Sunday night vs the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos are favored by 13 over the Kansas City Chiefs at home and should get the job done, but I would like to save them for later on in the season. Another good option is the New Orleans Saints to take care of business on the road against the Cleveland Browns. Luckily for the Saints the Browns do not have the firepower that the Falcons have and should score enough to win this game. The team I will be picking is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The St. Louis Rams made the Vikings look like a Super Bowl contender last week and it looks like Austin Taylor is going to get his first ever NFL start Sunday in Tampa. The Bucs will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Carolina in Week 1. Josh McCown should enjoy the extra time he will have to throw the ball with Chis Long out for 8-10 weeks for the Rams and that Tampa defense should be able to shut down the Rams' mediocre offense.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Adrian Peterson and the games other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider.
Carson Palmer QB Arizona – Carson Palmer might be dealing with a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder, but it didn’t stop him from throwing over 300 yards with two touchdowns against San Diego last week. Palmer should find similar success this week, albeit on the road, when Arizona takes on the New York Giants who surrendered 341 yards in the air to Detroit in Week 1. Palmer has a big play weapon in Michael Floyd and don’t discount Larry Fitzgerald just yet. The good news for Palmer is that RB Andre Ellington seem like he will be able to play through his foot injury, giving Palmer another dangerous passing option. Monitor his status, but it sounds like he will be ready to go. Start Palmer as a high end QB2.
Frank Gore RB San Francisco – Chicago just gave up 193 rushing yards at home to Buffalo in Week 1. With QB Colin Kaepernick expected to get his running yards, Gore and rookie RB Carlos Hyde should also see significant rushing yardage in the team’s home opener. Gore only tallied 66 rushing yards in Week 1, but he should not have too much trouble eclipsing the 110-yard mark in Sunday night’s Week 2 showdown. Gore is 31 years old and was expected to slow down last season, but still managed to put up 1,128 rushing yards with 9 rushing touchdowns - the second highest in his prolific career. Start Gore with confidence as your RB2 with expectations of 100+ rushing yards and a score.
C.J. Spiller RB Buffalo – Spiller’s timeshare with Fred Jackson will continue throughout the 2014 season barring injury. Still, both can be effective options with Spiller having much more potential due to his powerful burst and electrifying speed. This week Buffalo goes up against a Miami defense who held New England to just 89 rushing yards and 226 passing yards. But Miami is on the road in Week 2 and has a slew of defensive players battling injuries – though most should end up on the field Sunday. Buffalo is coming off a big upset where they manhandled Chicago on the road in Week 1 and will be looking to carry that momentum into Week 2 against Miami. Spiller can be dangerous when he finds a hole and is always a candidate for a big play. Big play of not, Spiller should still put up serviceable numbers this week, enough to qualify as a decent RB2 option.
Kelvin Benjamin WR Detroit – Kelvin Benjamin was much of a secret by the time your league had its draft, but he still probably didn’t go as high as his worth this season will dictate. The 6’5” 240 pound rookie receiver wasted no time in making his name known in the NFL churning out a 6-catch, 92-yard performance with a touchdown to boot. And this was on the road against a should be tough Tampa Bay defense with back up QB Derek Anderson at the helm. This week Benjamin plays at home against Detroit and starting QB Cam Newton is expected to return. Newton will often be hurried by Detroit’s aggressive D-line, but Benjamin is a big target that has speed and the ability to get open in a hurry. I fully expect Benjamin to put up similar numbers to what he did in Week 1 with the potential to haul in his first 100-yard receiving game. Benjamin is a very nice WR2 option and maybe even a lower end WR1 for Week 2.
Reggie Wayne WR Indianapolis – Reggie Wayne was drafted in the latter rounds of so many fantasy drafts this year – much lower than receiving counterpart T.Y. Hilton. The thought process was that the Wayne is now 35 years old, had ACL repair surgery last season and that Hilton has taken over as the big go to option for QB Andrew Luck. Well, as we all saw in Indy’s Week 1 opener at Denver, Wayne is back and better than ever. He is obviously the guy that Luck entrusts catching 9 of 13 targets and seemed to get open at will. Hilton will still be a major part of the Indianapolis passing game, but Wayne looks to be a bigger part. Yes, it was only one game, but Wayne sure showcased himself as a top league receiver in Monday night’s battle with the AFC champs and showed zero indication that he plans to slow down. As long as Wayne’s big-time play holds up, he should hold borderline WR1 status and that especially goes for this week’s matchup at home against Philadelphia that let Jacksonville’s Chad Henne pass for two first quarter touchdowns. Wayne will light it up in Philly, especially in PPR leagues). Expect 7 or more catches, lots of yards and Wayne’s first score of the year.
Larry Donnell TE New York Giants – Larry Donnell is separating himself from the TE pack. QB Eli Manning has always liked hitting his TEs and this year should be no different. Donnell, a 6’6” 265 pound target, had preseason completion from Daniel Fells and Adrian Robinson, but has established his starting role in Week 1 by catching 5 or his 8 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown grab against Detroit. Coach Tom Coughlin had mentioned a committee attack at TE but Donnell is certainly Manning’s go-to guy. New York has a tougher defensive matchup in Week 2 against Arizona, but they are at home and Donnell should still have plenty of opportunities. In leagues that start two TEs, Donnell is a nice play this week, but can even be useful in one TE leagues as a replacement for injured players like Jordan Reed or Jordan Cameron.
Hot Pick Up Bust of the Week
Terrance West RB Cleveland – New Orleans can give up the rushing yards – especially on the road, where they find themselves in Week 2 at Cleveland. The question is, how much Cleveland will be running the ball. In Week 1 New Orleans was on the road battling Atlanta where they gave up 123 rushing yards. Of course, Atlanta has a much more potent offense and not only kept up with Drew Brees and company but pasted them with 445 passing yards. West, who is starting in place for the injured Ben Tate, may find his team unable to keep up with New Orleans’ high flying offense and not getting as many run opportunities, most likely trailing early on. Plus, he has fellow backfield mate Isaiah Crowell to contend with. West has been a popular pick up this week, but it’s just not in the cards for him to put up fantasy relevant numbers in Week 2. Hold onto him and hope he starts at home in Week 3 vs Baltimore where it will be much more of a smashmouth type game that could offer plenty of run opportunities. Unless you are desperate for RB help this week, West should be on your bench.
It’s always best to get off to a strong start!
If you followed my picks last week, then you should be sitting pretty towards the top of the standings of your confidence pool. Getting 12 out of 16 right in week 1 is something to pat yourself on the back about…(excuse me while I pat myself on the back).
But as the old saying goes, this is a sprint, not a marathon…though you may have won the weekly payout for the week 1 sprint :). We have a bit of an understanding of what the 2015 version of each team looks like, but there is still room for adjustments. We are still looking for that elusive perfect week of picks…maybe it will be this week!
Week 2! … HERE WE GO!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – INDIANAPOLIS over New York Jets – The Colts came into the 2015 campaign labeled by some as favorites to win the AFC Championship this season. Losing in week 1 doesn’t help that case. Lucky for them they get a home game against the Jets to help the recovery process.
15 – PITTSBURGH over San Francisco – The season started off with an unexpected bang for the 9ers with a big win on a national Monday night stage. They should be brought back down to Earth pretty quickly in the Steel City.
14 – NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay – Last week the Saints were my lock to lose. This week they are on the winning side of the 14-point line … ah the fun of the NFC South.
13 – GREEN BAY over Seattle – Last week in Chicago, the Packers gave up a late TD to the Bears which led to an onside kick on the ensuing kickoff. How many Packer fans were brought back to a similar situation seven months ago in Seattle? This week they get their chance at proper retribution – and to put the Seahawks in an 0-2 hole to start the season.
12 – Miami over JACKSONVILLE – The Dolphins got off to a slow start but still pulled off the road win. Look for the same this week…with the probably exception of Miami starting off slow.
11 –Baltimore over OAKLAND – The Raiders proved last week that they are still a work in progress. Add in injuries to key players, including quarterback Derek Carr, and it’s really hard to see the Raiders pulling one out here either.
10 – CINCINNATI over San Diego –The announce team for the Bengals/Raiders game last week made it sound like the Bengals were on their way to the Super Bowl. That game was against Oakland, this is different – but the result won’t be.
9 – CAROLINA over Houston – Doctors in Houston are rushing trying to figure out how the bring Arian Foster back as soon as possible – won’t be this week though!
8 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – After edging the Ravens at home and a very not-Peyton like performance from Peyton Manning, the Broncos are in “Show-Me Mode.” Show me you can pull out big road games like this and I’ll have more confidence in you.
7 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – Both teams are coming off of a rough start to the season. Look for this one to be a shootout – an aerial assault from both teams. If for no other reason, the Vikings are the home team so they get the edge here.
6 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Atlanta – Apparently Eli told Rashad Jennings to NOT score at the end of the Dallas game last week … to NOT score! To NOT put points on the board! The Giants won’t make that mistake again.
5 – Arizona over CHICAGO – Carson Palmer looked like the Carson Palmer of hold. Expect to see more of the same on the lake this week. Arizona is looking solid enough to say that this week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that THE CARDINALS WILL OVERTAKE THE SEAHAWKS AND WIN THE NFC WEST.
4 – Tennessee over CLEVELAND – The scheduling Gods live in Nashville apparently. The Titans start the season with two road games…but those games are in Tampa and Cleveland. Johnny Manziel will be under center for the Browns this week. All Titan fans hail the scheduling Gods!
3 – BUFFALO over New England – Nothing motivates Rex Ryan more than a game against the Pats. Now he gets to go against New England with more talent than he has had in the last few years. I don’t think he will let this opportunity fall.
2 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – The Cowboys leading rusher a year ago will be on the other sideline. Their all-everything receiver will still be on their own sideline…but he won’t leave the sideline. Philly will just have too much firepower for Dallas to handle.
1 – St. Louis over WASHINGTON – Washington used their run game to keep it close against the Dolphins last week. They won’t have the same success against the strong Rams defensive line.