Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

29.24 Fantasy Points

Once again, Derrick Henry led all RBs in fantasy points - this time it was a much more reasonable point total. Henry has a whopping 408 yards and 6 TDs over the last two weeks. If you started him these last two weeks, then you're probably looking at a championship matchup next week. Those numbers also account for basically half of his entire production in the 2018 season, so it's no surprise if he was riding your bench last week and you didn't want to chase points this week. Either way, it's been an impressive two weeks for Henry, and perhaps he's starting to live up to the potential he was touted to have coming out of college. This week, el "Tractorcito" will be taking on the Redskins, whom have fallen to the middle of the pack in rush defense after starting strong. Might as well fire up Henry and ride this hot streak while you still can.

142 Rush Yards

Steelers backup RB Jaylen Samuels put up a total of 172 yards from scrimmage in a tough win against the Patriots, a team that the Steelers haven't beaten since 2011. His 142 rush yards were the first time that the Steelers had a player cross the 100 rushing yard threshold since week 9 in Baltimore. Samuels' performance once again shows that it's the offensive line of the Steelers that is the real MVP here. It was the difference in a game that featured two perennial giants that have seen better days. Adding to the fun was Samuels' eligibility as a TE in Yahoo leagues. He was by far the highest scoring TE of the week, and only one of two players to hit double digits. The other player was Garrett Celek, owned in 0% of leagues. Now, the Patriots are in line to have to play during the wild-card weekend for the first time since 2009. Finally, someone else is getting a bye in the AFC.

4 of the top 8 TEs Owned in 0% of Leagues

OK, it's getting ridiculous at the TE position this year. Not only is it hard to get any kind of consistency at the TE position (the TE10 scored just 5.4 points), there are guys every week doing all the scoring instead of the ones in starting fantasy lineups. Week 15 saw Garrett Celek, Jeremy Sprinkle, Darren Waller and Lee Smith all wind up in the top 8 scoring TEs this week. All of those guys are basically rounding errors to us, as they're all owned in 0% of leagues. To look at this from another angle, all 6 TEs owned in 90% of leagues or more (we're throwing Jaylen Samuels out of this) scored a combined 18.6 points, good for a 3.1 point average. Might as well throw out the TE slot and just make it another flex position in order to take a bit of the sadness out of fantasy football.

4 of the top 10 WRs Owned in 51% of Leagues or Less

OK, it's not quite as ridiculous at the WR position, but it's not exactly full of guys you expected to be putting up big games. Starting off, you've got Mike Williams (51% owned) who scored 3 TDs and a 2 pointer for the win, led the week with 29.5 fantasy points. Then you've got Robert Foster (14%), Robby Anderson (27%) and Chris Hogan (28%) all scoring a touchdown and finishing in the top 10 WRs. Whatever happened to standards? You also had Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen combine for a whopping 6 points - all of those guys are owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. We've said it for a while now at drinkfive, but WR performances really get inconsistent when you near the end of the season, so here's hoping you turned some of those early stars into RBs at some point this season.

8 of the top 8 RBs Owned and Started Everywhere!

Now here's a position with some consistency, and let me elaborate. These top 8 guys are all owned in at least 88% of leagues, with the exception of Damien Williams (67%), who is being used in leagues that are paying attention, at least. Weather is a factor somewhere almost every weekend in the NFL, and bad or cold weather definitely favors the run game over the passing game, but there's something else to this trend of RBs being better than WRs this time of year. Later in the season, you wind up with teams that are able to improve their offensive line, since the only true way to practice a run game is to play real games. This is how you wind up with 8 players scoring at least 20 points at one position, and it being at least mildly predictable. Rounding out the top 10, honorable mentions go to Kalen Ballage (nice 75-yard TD) and Wendell Smallwood, both owned in 14% or fewer Yahoo leagues.

It’s hard to believe that we are just a few weeks away from the end of the season. Only a few more chances to lock down that top spot in your season long pool.

But, if you have been using our picks all year, you should be at the top as it is. And if you haven’t, well, you’ll learn for next season I guess!

Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

• 16 – BALTIMORE over New York Jets – The Jets have been looking solid lately…that will all come to a screeching halt this week.
  
  
• 15 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – Re-read what I just wrote but replace Jets with Bears.
  
  
• 14 – New England over CINCINNATI – Video taping…the Bengals? The Patriots are seriously just cheating for the fun of it at this point!
  
  
• 13 – SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta –The 9ers confirmed their NFC dominance in New Orleans last week – a home game against the Falcons will be a nice breather for them.
  
  
• 12 – Seattle over CAROLINA – At the beginning of the year this could have been a potential NFC Championship preview. Now…not so much.
  
  
• 11 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – It’s odd to have a little doubt in my mind that I have the Chiefs too high against the Drew Lock-led Broncos.
  
  
• 10 – TENNESSEE over Houston – This will be part one of the Titans assertion as this year’s AFC South Champions…
  
  
• 9 – NEW ORLEANS over Indianapolis – …and this is part two! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE TITANS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
  
  
• 8 – Minnesota over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – I would be more reluctant to put the Vikings so high in this road game…but with such a bad fan base, is there really such thing as a road game against the Chargers?
  
  
• 7 – OAKLAND over Jacksonville – It’s been a rough stretch for the Raiders which has taken them out of the playoff picture. This week, though, they’ll be pushed by the emotions of playing the last game in Oakland …well…until they move back in 15-20 years.
  
  
• 6 – PITTSBURGH over Buffalo – There are just so many reasons why this being a potential Game of the Week is a huge surprise – lucky for the Steelers the game is in Pittsburgh.
  
  
• 5 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – I honestly don’t know what to say about the battle of disappointment.
  
  
• 4 – ARIZONA over Cleveland – Speaking of disappointment, a season full of disappointment will soon end for the Browns.
  
  
• 3 – Tampa Bay over DETROIT – Tampa is playing like a team that knows their season is over, but they have pride. The Lions are not.
  
  
• 2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Miami – Eli almost pulled out a win in his return to the field last week. He’ll more than be able to handle it this week.
  
  
• 1 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – As we know, if we think the Redskins will win, we keep it on the one-point line.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8^th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10^th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9^th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12^th-most WR points per game and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3^rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4^th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13^th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17^th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.

WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18^th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.