Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of us, it’s the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were able to secure a bye into the next round, but if not, this week’s lineup decisions will be critical. With rookies being inconsistent by nature, there are only a few that I can fully recommend starting this week. That doesn’t mean those are the only rookies worth playing. Before we get into specifics, I just want to offer one piece of advice: Start your studs! You don’t want to be kicking yourself next week because you decided to sit T.Y. Hilton for a guy like Doug Baldwin or Jarvis Landry just because Hilton’s facing Joe Haden and the other guy has a plus matchup. Sure there’s a risk of a dud from T.Y., but he could also have a monster game. It’s much easier to live with the dud from T.Y. than T.Y. blowing up on your bench. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the outlook for the rookies in week 14…
Rookies to Start:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Sure, Crowell was awful last Sunday, but if you want to win this week you’ll look past his miserable week 13 performance and get him in there this week. Crowell is listed as questionable with a hip injury, but the Colts allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. I’m starting the Crow in both leagues that I own him in, and I think he’s in line for a big game.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Beckham failed to find the end zone in a dream matchup with the Jaguars last week, but he remains a must-start option as a borderline WR1. He has 6+ catches and 90+ yards in each of his past 5 games and is a great bet to find the end zone against a Titans’ defense that just let Ryan Fitzpatrick torch them for 6 scores. Rueben Randle’s recent disciplinary issues (benched due to tardiness to meeting) should only increase Beckham’s work.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 14: @NO): The Saints managed to contain KB in the first meeting between these teams, holding him to season-lows of 2 catches and 11 yards. Don’t expect a repeat of that game. The Panthers are still force-feeding the ball to Benjamin, and the Saints’ Keenan Lewis hasn’t been the same since injuring his knee against the 49ers a few weeks ago. I expect Kelvin to put up at least 60 yards and a TD, and those numbers should be in your lineup.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): Despite the tough matchup with the Lions, and the relatively weak outing last Sunday, Evans fits the idea of starting your studs. He has to be in the lineup. He’s got a pretty high floor, tallying at least 47 yards in every game except the season opener, and he’s got a ceiling that can win your week. I wouldn’t be able to sit him knowing what he is capable of.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): I wouldn’t necessarily say Bridgewater is turning the corner just yet, but he’s thrown just 2 INTs in his last 5 games and is coming off back-to-back 2 TD performances (his only 2 of the year). This week he’s home against the Jets, who have allowed a staggering 27:4 TD:INT ratio to opposing QBs. Given the matchup, Teddy is a passable QB2 this week, but his ceiling will be limited by what should remain a run-heavy game plan.
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mett left last week’s game with a shoulder injury, but he seems to have avoided any serious damage and the Titans expect him to start this week. He did lose his most talented downfield target in Justin Hunter to injured reserve, but he should again be a borderline QB2 with upside. The Giants D hasn’t been the same without Prince Amukamara in the secondary and Mett was on his way to what could have been a 300-yard game before getting hurt last week.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Hill was called out by offensive coordinator Hue Jackson after questioning Jackson’s game plan on Sunday. Hue said he needed to block better and break more tackles because, “that’s what running backs do.” I expect Hill to want to make a statement this week in a game that could really cement the Bengals’ claim to the AFC North crown. The timeshare with Gio limits his upside a bit, but a bit of inspired play should make Hill a borderline RB2 with upside.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 14: @Was.): Mason made good on my prediction of triple-digit yards last week, but I didn’t expect 3 TDs to go with it. You have to be kicking yourself if you didn’t start him. It was the breakout game we’ve been waiting for from Tre, but he should come back to earth a bit this week. The Redskins have been very stout vs. the run, but Mason’s volume isn’t going anywhere. He’s the engine that makes the Rams’ offense go, and he’s at least in the RB2 discussion this week, and would be a strong flex-play.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 14: @Ten.): This only applies if Jennings is out this week. He’s questionable with injury. Even though Williams is an unsexy option who runs like he’s stuck in mud, you could do worse than the lead back facing the second-most generous defense in terms of RB fantasy points. I’d much rather play Williams if he starts than a questionable option like Bishop Sankey, Chris Ivory or LeGarrette Blount.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Speaking of the Bishop, he faces yet another favorable matchup on the other side of the Giants-Titans game. This may be Sankey’s last chance to show that he can produce in a good matchup, but it would probably be best if that chance comes with him on your bench. He’s still got some appeal in really deep leagues, but he’s even been vulture at the goal line by Dexter McCluster. He should be good for about 50 scoreless yards. It’s worth noting that he’s been returning kicks over the past 3 weeks if your league gives points for that.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): The targets and production have been steady with Sanchez at QB, but the Seahawks’ defense allows the fewest WR points in the league and has been downright dominant as a whole over the past 2 games. Matthews should remain a big part of the offense this week, but his upside will be extremely limited in such a tough matchup. He’s more worthy of a play in PPR than standard.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Landry is going to be a safe WR3 this week for PPR leagues, but he should be on the WR3 radar in standard leagues as well. The Ravens allow as many WR points as any team in the league, and Ryan Tannehill just looks lost trying to throw downfield. Landry has been fantastic in the short passing game, and he should rack up catches again this week. The yardage should remain modest, but a TD is at least a 50/50 bet this week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 14: @Den.): I’d actually lean towards sitting Watkins this week. Kyle Orton has been pretty bad lately, and Watkins’s production has suffered as a result. I’m not really confident that he rebounds this week against Aqib Talib and the Broncos, even if there is ample garbage time. At best he’s a WR3 this week.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s somewhat frustrating that Brown didn’t take advantage of his plus matchup last week with the Falcons, but he’s averaged 61 yards per game over the past 4 games, and 64 yards per game in 6 home contests (just 31 ypg on the road in 6 games). He should be an okay WR3 in deeper leagues even if Fitz plays this week, and okay for standard leagues if Fitz sits.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Despite his monster game against the Patriots last Sunday, Adams is a risky play this week. He benefitted from the Pats’ focus on slowing down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and he still managed to leave 2 TDs on the field. This week he’s back to being a boom or bust option, and is a major roll of the dice this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): If you saw the news on Tuesday, then you probably know not to play Manziel, but even if something were to change between now and Sunday, I’d still keep him benched. There’s no way to really know what to expect. Crowell would get a boost if Manziel starts though.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): His numbers have been very poor this year, putting up far more turnovers than the Jags can be comfortable, and the Texans have 15 interceptions in 12 games. Multiple turnovers are likely again , and it’s not a good sign that he’s averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt over the past 2 games without Allen Robinson. Keep him benched this week.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Not much analysis needed here. The 49ers allow the 4th fewest pass yards in the league and Carr has failed to break 200 yards passing in 9 of his 12 starts. There is no reason to expect him to get to 200 this week.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Jerick was out last week, but I wouldn’t trust him even if he plays this week. He should slide back into his usual role after Joe Banyard badly blew a blitz pickup last week, but zero touchdowns all year? You can’t make just make the argument that he’s due. There’s no reason to expect TD #1 this week.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): West was clearly played 2nd fiddle to Crowell last week, and was blasted publicly Monday by head coach Pettine this week for his fumbling woes. As long as Crowell is good to go, West should be on the bench. He gets a bump up to an intriguing flex option if the Crow is out.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 14: @Jax.): As expected, Blue has been a non-factor with Arian Foster back, and that should continue to be the case this week. There’s no reason to consider him despite a plus matchup.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 14: @Mia.): There were reports this week that John Harbaugh insists that Taliaferro isn’t in the doghouse. The fact that the question would even be brought up shows just how little Taliaferro has factored in the Ravens’ offense. He has just 3 carries in the last 3 games since a fumble in week 10 put him on the bench. He should stay on your bench as well.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 14: @Cin.): It’s hard to say to avoid Bryant altogether after the way he exploded onto the scene, but the bottom has fallen out over the past 2 weeks. He had just 2 catches for 11 yards in week 12 and dropped a sure touchdown in the process. The really troubling number is the 4 targets he received last week. It’s troubling because the Steelers threw the ball 58 times. The Bengals’ defense is really good against WRs, and you’d be better off not relying on Bryant to bounce back.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Despite a really good matchup, I wouldn’t have the stones to trust Hurns with my season on the line. He could certainly blow up and have a big game against the defense that allows the most fantasy WR points in the league, but he’s much more likely not to. Hurns has done nothing to warrant a spot in the lineup, tallying less than 5 points (standard leagues) in 7 of his last 8 games. Why would you expect that to change this week?
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 14: vs. TB): Ebron has been a total disappointment this season. Lions’ fans have lamented the decision to draft Ebron over a guy like Odell Beckham Jr. for much of the season, and I can’t bank on the athletic rookie to pick it up this week. He’s been seeing a handful of targets each week, but has exactly 22 or 23 yards in each of his past 4 games. If you’re happy with 2 points out of your tight end, be my guest and start him.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Min.): Even if Amaro returns from the concussion that kept him sidelined in week 13, there’s no reason to expect a solid showing. The Vikings have allowed less than 5 points per game to opposing tight ends, and it looks like Rex Ryan and the Jets refuse to throw the ball as long as John Idzik forces him to play Geno Smith. Smith attempted just 13 passes on Monday night, with 5 coming on the final drive. The limited upside in the passing game means Amaro isn’t a realistic streaming option.
TE Richard Rodgers, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t overthink this. Despite scoring a TD in each of the last 2 games, Rodgers isn’t a real option for your lineup this week. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game this year, and the Packers’ stars should have no trouble piling up stats against the Falcons’ porous D. Pinning your tight end hopes to Rodgers on the chance he gets a 3rd TD in as many weeks isn’t a smart choice.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. KC): Andre Ellington is dinged up, and Grice is in line to get the start if AE can’t go. Grice doesn’t have overwhelming talent, but he’s a versatile player who could thrive in an offense that involves the running back in the passing game a bunch. Michael Bush and Stepfan Taylor should mix in a bit, but Grice will get the first carries against a defense that can be run on. Grice should be a solid flex option in PPR and deeper leagues if he gets the start.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Teams rarely lose by 50 in the NFL and then proceed to lay another egg the following week, but I still expect the 49ers to be playing from ahead of the Raiders all day. Hyde hasn’t gotten a ton of carries over the past few weeks, but game flow should work in his advantage this week. I’d expect 12+ carries from Hyde, and against the Raiders’ league-worst RB defense, that makes him worthy of flex consideration in deep leagues.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): Doug Martin came back from the dead last week to take over as the lead back for the Bucs, but Sims could have some really sneaky upside as a PPR flex play in deep leagues. The Lions’ defensive front is stout against the run, but they’ve allowed a league-high 75 receptions to opposing RBs. Sims’s role in the passing game gives him value in what looks like a brutal matchup on paper.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Moncrief was mentioned here last week, and he went off for 130+ yards and 2 TDs. He’s been great every time he’s been given a chance, and his snaps have increased each of the last 2 weeks. With Joe Haden likely shadowing T.Y. Hilton all day, there should be opportunities for Moncrief to make an impact again as he squares off with burnable Buster Skrine and K’Waun Williams. There’s some risk since Moncrief is just a part-time player, but you saw what he’s capable of last week.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): I mentioned that Hurns should be benched, but someone has to catch Blake Bortles’s passes, right? The polished rookie has been productive when given opportunities, and he should have plenty of them against a Houston defense that allows 27.4 points to opposing WRs per game. Lee should get the biggest piece of the Jags WR pie and makes for an intriguing WR3 in deep leagues, especially PPR.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): If ASJ suits up this week, he’s the best option among the rookie TEs. Tight end is the one position the Lions have been vulnerable against, and when he plays, Austin is in on almost every play. He’s done little to suggest he’s more than a TD dart throw, but he’s got a slightly higher floor that Richard Rodgers or Amaro.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully some of this info helps you into the next round. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome gamblers to another section geared towards winning the big $$$ on Fanduel. Taking a different approach this week by going with two high priced running backs vs. looking for the bargain backs with high volume potential. This may hurt my wide receiver selections, but I couldn't pass up on the running back matchups. Good luck to you all!
QB – Drew Brees, NO ($9,400): Brees should be up for a huge performance at home this week going up against a Carolina defense that averages 2 touchdowns allowed through the air per game. Expect Brees to top that average in what looks to be a high scoring affair.
RB – Arian Foster, HOU ($8,700): Foster is healthy coming into this dream matchup so I can't pass up on this one. Jacksonville gives up 129.4 rushing yards per game and at least 1 touchdown per game. Foster should hit those numbers on the ground and add to them since he is involved in the passing game as well.
RB – Eddie Lacy, GB ($8,500): Taking another high ticket RB this week since Lacy has a great matchup against a Falcons defense giving up 118.3 yards per game on the ground. As we start getting into more cold weather games expect the Packers to lean more on the ground game vs. their norm of airing the ball out.
WR – Kenny Stills, NO ($6,400): Great price for someone who has stepped up to be the number 1 receiving option for the Saints. I love pairing my quarterback with one of their receiving options for Fanduel tournaments as well.
WR – Robert Woods, BUF ($5,900): Should be a decent play for the price as Buffalo will inevitably need to be throwing for touchdowns to keep up or catch up to the Broncos. Throw in Orton returning to Denver where he had success and Sammy Watkins being banged up adds some more incentive.
WR – James Jones, OAK ($5,400): Breaking a rule of never playing anyone from Oakland, but going high on other positions this week makes the receiver selections limited. Strictly went off of who has been averaging the most fantasy points in this price range for this selection.
TE – Antonio Gates, SD ($5,600): New England has been shutting down opposing teams outside receivers but tight ends and slot receivers have had success. This game has potential for high scoring and if it does expect Gates to be involved in that.
K – Phil Dawson, SF ($4,800): Looked to be the best priced kicker not playing in a cold weather location. Oakland also gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing kickers.
DEF – Houston Texans ($5,300): I love playing any defense against the Jaguars and especially love playing an elite fantasy defense against them. Good chance for some touchdowns coming here.
The playoffs are here! This week’s waiver wire adds a different element. You might be playing defense to keep your opponents team weak or stashing some depth for your run at the championship. In any case this is a chess match and the waiver wire is your opening move. The second season starts in week 14.
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor, BUF – The multitalented Tyrod Taylor is the hot streamer pick heading into week 14. Admittedly more passing attempts on average would be preferred, but Taylor continues to add value through his work on the ground. In his last two weeks he has 6 passing TD’s and a rushing TD to cap off his 502 passing yards and 75 rushing yards. More impressive still are the defenses he went through. Kansas City and Houston both pose a larger challenge than any of his coming playoff matchups. Philadelphia is a cupcake matchup for week 14 and Taylor is wide open for the taking in 64% of leagues.
Running Backs
James White, NE – The Patriots have a “next-man-up” mentality. When Dion Lewis went down they clearly had to find a back capable of making plays out of the backfield. James White finally showed that value last week. There is very little to go on with White and I am not claiming he isn’t a risk. His upside is something to be excited about after scoring 3 times in 3 weeks. Last week was his best week statistically with 10 receptions, 115 yards and a TD. Three weeks ago he found the end zone twice, but was ineffective statistically. Either way the Patriots have started using White more often. Injuries on the offense are going to open up his role and the Patriots need to stop the losing streak down the stretch.
Darren Sproles, PHI – It is about damn time the Eagles feature Darren Sproles over Darren McFadden! Whether it remains that way is yet to be seen. Sproles had a great game with 66 yards on 15 carries and an additional 34 on 6 catches. His running style suits Chip Kelly’s offense and his success last week should lead to the same, if not more usage down the stretch. The Eagles play Buffalo next week who are surprisingly mediocre against the run this season. Sproles is only owned in 41% of leagues.
Wide Receivers
DeVante Parker, MIA – He is a very late bloomer apparently but DeVante Parker has come on as of late for Miami. His last two weeks have netted him 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. His 15 targets over those two weeks are definitely a huge positive too. Rishard Matthews continues to mend his broken ribs and his status remains uncertain. Miami has two favorable match ups coming up with games against the Giants 20th rated pass defense and the Chargers 27th rated pass defense. He is available in 70% of the leagues.
Markus Wheaton, PIT – Two weeks ago Markus Wheaton had 9 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. Grant it a large reason behind that was mostly due to Richard Sherman’s coverage on Antonio Brown. That is why I like Wheaton’s outlook over the next two weeks. The Steelers matchups include the 5th ranked Bengals pass defense and 2nd ranked Broncos defense. Neither of which have Richard Sherman, but both of which who are going to focus their efforts on Antonio Brown. This should force Wheaton into a larger role.
Tight Ends
Richard Rodgers, GB – This one is a bit of sore subject as I missed the playoffs in a league due to my benching of Richard Rodgers. His consistency leaves a lot to be desired but his size and play making ability can’t be ignored. His game winning Hail Mary catch highlighted his impressive game this past Sunday. He caught all 8 of his targets for 146 yards and a TD. Green Bay has continued to struggle without a consistent pass catcher. Rodgers won’t be Jordy Nelson, but if you are looking for Tight End help he is a promising option still available.
Kickers
Matt Prater, DET – Detroit has sort of figured out how to move the ball again, but only enough to improve Matt Prater’s value. Over the last 3 weeks our favorite lush has 37 points. Drinking beers and kicking field goals. What a life! The Lions have St. Louis and New Orleans coming up. Both those match ups favor the Lions. Then we all just rely on them committing some idiotic penalties in the red zone and watch Prater collect.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The fantasy playoffs are upon us. Hopefully you've managed to survive this long and are ready to roll your way to another victory. The rookies are taking over lately. Jameis and Mariota look like legitimate future stars, and week 13's top 7 RBs included 4 rookie backs. If you want to work your way to the title, the rookies should play a big role. Let's take a look at what the rooks have on tap this week...
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 14: vs. NO): Jameis put on a show in leading the Bucs to victory over the Falcons last week, particularly on a long 3rd down conversion run where he 'truck-sticked' several Atlanta defenders. What does he win for his efforts? A showdown with the worst pass defense in the league. The Saints have allowed 23 or more points (all point totals in ESPN standard scoring) to opposing QBs in 5 of their past 6 games and 4+ passing TDs in 4 of their last 5. On the season, the Saints have allowed 7 more TD passes than any other team in the league (only the Eagles are closer than 10 behind). The only thing to fear here is the Bucs' run-happy offense if the Saints don't score enough to force a shootout. Jameis should be a top-10 QB this week.
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Three straight starts, three straight games of at least 14 fantasy points and a touchdown. The Ravens are 14th in Football Outsiders' run DVOA stat (measures defensive efficiency), and in the two starts he's had vs. teams with a better ranking (Pittsburgh & Cincy), Rawls has tallied 230 yards and 2 TDs. You have to start him again this week, regardless of matchup. In his past 4 starts, he hasn't ranked lower than the RB8 in any week.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Jacksonville finally started using Yeldon in the red zone last week, and it paid dividends for his owners as TJ found the end zone and finished as the RB2 overall for the week. He has a flex-worthy weekly floor based on volume alone, and there is still an outside shot that the Colts start Charlie Whitehurst this week at QB, which should give Yeldon a very positive game script to work with. Even if Hasselbeck is able to start, the Colts have allowed over 250 RB rush yards in the past two weeks and Yeldon should provide RB2 value against them.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Johnson didn't disappoint in his first start, finishing right behind Yeldon as the RB3 for the week, and he faces a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in run DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA on throws to RBs. Minnesota is also struggling with injuries, as starting nose tackle Linval Joseph, starting linebacker Anthony Barr, and starting safety Harrison Smith will all miss this game. Johnson shouldn't struggle to finish as a top-20 RB this week.
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): Don't be afraid of the Jets' defense this week. On the year New York ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11th fewest QB points in the league, but Darrelle Revis might be out again and the Jets have allowed 330+ yards and 20+ points to QBs in 4 of their past 7 games. They've allowed those days to New England, Oakland, Jacksonville and Miami, not exactly all elite offenses. Mariota is really putting the pieces together lately, and the emergence of Dorial Green-Beckham will only help going forward. Don't expect another 87-yard TD run, but Mariota will be a solid QB2 this week and is a top-15 overall option at the position.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks are one of the toughest draws in the league for opposing RBs, allowing a league-low 10.8 fantasy points per game to them. With the way the Seahawks are scoring lately, this sets up as a game where the Ravens will be playing from behind, and Allen showed his pass game chops with 12 catches in week 13. The Seahawks allow 5.3 RB catches per game, and Allen should continue to see the heavy workload he's seen of late. That should be enough to get him into the lineup in leagues that have a flex spot rather than just 2 RBs, especially PPR leagues. In 2-RB leagues w/o a flex spot, you might have two safer options, but Allen should be in or near the top-20 PPR backs this week.
Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 14: @Chi.): I'm not going to pretend to know what to expect from Jones this week. Every time it seems like either Jones or Morris has taken a stranglehold of the early down role, the team seems to totally go the other direction the next week. It's about as frustrating as the Patriots' running backs from last season. This is a plus matchup, with the Bears ranking dead last in run DVOA and allowing at least 11 RB fantasy points in every single game this season, and Alfred Morris didn't play a snap for the last 3 quarters on Monday night. That points to Jones being a strong flex play this week, but there is always the risk that Morris gets right back in his way. Head coach Jay Gruden said Morris's disappearance was due to game-flow, and I doubt Jones sees 18 carries again, but he certainly has upside.
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): It's getting tough to trust Gurley as the offense crumbles around him. The Rams will go back to Case Keenum at QB this week, a move that brings with it the risk that the offense will implode once again. The Lions seem like an unimposing matchup on paper, ranking in the middle of the pack in both fantasy points allowed to RBs (15th most) and run DVOA (rank 13th), but over their past 4 games they've allowed just 48 RB rush yards per game. Gurley is probably best left on the bench this week despite the massive upside his talent brings with it. If you own him in dynasty, you should still be excited for the future.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 14: @StL): This is an interesting spot for Ameer. The Rams' run defense has been collapsing as his play has improved and his role has grown. Abdullah set a career-high in single-game rushing yards in each of the past 2 games, and the Rams have allowed at least 96 RB rush yards in each of the past 5 games, and 22 fantasy points per game in that stretch (they averaged allowing 14.6 prior to those games). The only concern here is that the Lions have a tendency to abandon the run even when the game script is positive and they are running well. They did it last week against GB, and hopefully they learned from that mistake. Abdullah is a flex option with solid upside this week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Revis questionable for this week, Dorial has a chance to build on his breakout game from week 13. What was especially promising was that Green-Beckham bounced back beautifully after making an early mistake that resulted in an interception. He showed all of the skills that make him such a tantalizing talent in piling up 119 yards and a TD on 5 catches. The Jets' pass defense has been gashed for 28+ points by opposing WRs in 5 of their past 6 games (35+ in 4 of them). It's hard to rely on DGB just because he showed us what he was capable of for one game when he's regularly disappointed this season, but the ceiling this week is huge, especially if Revis sits again.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Parker put up his second consecutive strong performance in place of the injured Rishard Matthews last week, and Matthews will be out again this week. The new offensive coordinator relied heavily on Lamar Miller and the run game against Baltimore, as Tannehill threw just 19 times, but 5 of them went in Parker's direction. That passing volume is scary low as a team, and you'd hope it comes up this week, but the matchup is a positive one. The G-Men have allowed the 2nd most WR yards in the league, and have given up 200+ yards to them in 4 of their past 5 games. There is a somewhat scary floor based on the pass game volume, but I think Parker is a strong bet to top 50 yards again and he should have WR2 upside this week.
TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Tye has been extremely steady over the past 3 weeks with Larry Donnell out, averaging 67 yards on just under 5 catches per game in that stretch, and there is a good chance he posts a similar line again this week. He's a reasonable low-end TE1 this week and a name to know in case Eifert is out again or you have a starter you don't trust.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Langford was finally kept out of the end zone in week 13 after scoring in 4 straight games prior to that. What’s more concerning is that Langford was out-touched 26-14 by Matt Forte and even ceded some of the backup work to Ka’Deem Carey, who scored a 4th quarter TD. He managed just 5 fantasy points in a very good matchup on 14 touches and this week gets to face a Washington defense that has allowed 97 RB rushing yards total in the last 2 weeks. The uncertain volume and tougher matchup make Langford a tough guy to trust in playoff matchups this week.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 14: @KC): Gordon was benched after fumbling yet again last week, and he's still failed to score a touchdown or put up double-digit fantasy points in any game this year. The Chiefs rank 7th in run DVOA and have allowed the 7th fewest RB fantasy points on the year. This isn't the week that Gordon breaks the 10-point barrier.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Johnson has a great matchup this week with the 49ers, who have allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing RBs in the league, and have been awful vs. RBs on the road (Allow 28.3 RB points per game on the road, 7.5 more than any other team averages for the season). The problem is that the quarterback merry-go-round in Cleveland is making the entire offense a wild card. Manziel gets the nod this week, and despite the great matchup there's a real chance that Duke doesn't hit 5 points. He's just too hard to trust for my liking in the playoffs.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): Cobb worked his way into a bigger role last week, garnering double-digit touches for the first time in his career, but he still averaged under 4 yards per carry and gets the best defense in the league in terms of run DVOA this week. Cobb is at best a TD dart throw this week.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): Not much explanation necessary here. Coleman went right back to being a backup to Devonta Freeman last week. Feel free to avoid him again. He only really has value if something happens to Freeman.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): With the new offensive coordinator in Miami, the team seems to have recommitted to Lamar Miller as the feature back. Ajayi played just 8 snaps last week, and while that number may go up this week, there's no reason to be confident it will. Ajayi is a Miller handcuff for now.
RB John Crockett, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Crockett led the Packers in rushing yards last week. It won't happen again. Eddie Lacy was benched due to issues off the field, but coach Mike McCarthy has talked up Lacy as looking 'rejuvenated' in practice this week. Expect a bounce back from Lacy and a return to obscurity for Crockett.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 14: @Den.): Sitting Cooper might sound like a terrible idea if you've been starting him every week, but this really could be a rough week for him. The Broncos have held 4 of the last 6 opponents they've played to 3 or fewer points from their entire WR groups. Cooper has failed to find the end zone in the past 4 games, and Denver has allowed just 1 WR TD all season long. There is a much lower floor than we typically see from Cooper. When he lines up outside he should see a lot of Aqub Talib. If they move him into the slot he gets Chris Harris. Either way he's facing one of the league's elite cover corners. If he tops 50 yards it would be a win for him this week.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Things aren't promising for Diggs right now. Even in a 31-point drubbing last week, the Vikings attempted just 28 passes. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson complained about not getting enough carries. I'd expect the Vikings to be committed to the run early, and the pass volume to be low again, even if they're playing from behind. Diggs has come up short of 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 outings, and the Cardinals rank 3rd in the league in pass DVOA. It's hard to bet on Diggs to top that 50-yard mark this week.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): I was surprised to see Funchess pushed back to the bench with the return of Corey Brown. He failed to come up big in a game with a lot of passing volume for Carolina (despite a TD), so I'd be hard pressed to trust him in a game that sets up to have a lot less of it. Funchess would need to find the end zone to be productive this week, and the Falcons have allowed just 4 WR touchdowns in 12 games. Betting that Funchess scores one this week isn't something I'm prepared to do.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Crowder made a few grabs and did a few positive things in an ugly Monday night loss for Washington, but 4-for-40 is pretty much his ceiling at this point with the Washington WRs all healthy. The Bears' real issue will be containing DeSean Jackson, not Crowder.
WRs Devin Smith & Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): The Titans have been shredded for 7 WR TDs in the past two games, and the Jets' pass attack is humming right now. There is sneaky shootout potential in this game, and there should be enough passing action to go around for more than just Marshall and Decker. That means there is a chance for Smith or Enunwa to have a nice game, but good luck guessing which one it'll be. Smith has the better shot at a TD, but Enunwa's volume is slightly more consistent. Your best bet is to avoid both.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 14: @Den.): Walford set his career bests in catches and yards in week 13, but I wouldn't bank on a repeat this week. The Broncos have struggled to contain TEs the past two weeks, but they faced Gronk and Antonio Gates. Prior to those two games, no team had put up more than 6 TE catches against Denver. Walford is best left on the bench this week.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 14: @Phi.): There is a ton of volatility to Williams. I wouldn't trust him in the fantasy playoffs, but he has some DFS upside as a punt play this week. The Eagles stunned the Pats last week, but they'd been collapsing for weeks prior to that, and this is a good spot for a letdown game. Philly has been forking over 27.5 RB points per game over the past 4 games, and while this has been talked up as LeSean McCoy's revenge game, if the Bills get way up Williams could get some garbage time carries against a collapsing defense. He still has scored TDs in 6 of the 8 games he's played. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure Williams is active before taking a shot on him, but there should be some opportunity for him and no one else is likely to be on him this week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Lockett could wind up on the PPR WR3 radar this week. His role seemed to increase last week with Jimmy Graham out for the season, and the Ravens rank 26th in pass DVOA. His efficiency has been insane this year. He's hauled in 35 catches on just 40 targets, including 7-of-7 in week 13. If he continues to see 6-8 targets, he should return borderline WR3 value in PPR leagues the rest of the way.
WR JJ Nelson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): As mentioned earlier, the Vikings' defense will likely struggle while missing an impact player at every level of the defense. The lack of Harrison Smith should make them more vulnerable to the deep ball than usual, and Arizona has been taking a couple deep shots to Nelson each week, even with the top 3 WRs healthy. Nelson has had at least 5 fantasy points in each of the past 4 games, and he could make an intriguing DFS punt play yet again this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions and advance in your playoffs. If you have any specific start/sit questions or feedback, or just want to yell at me about my opinions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.