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Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Moving into the playoffs now (in most fantasy leagues), it's important to balance consistency and upside on your roster as well as looking ahead to the match-ups over the next few weeks. Listen up for some big tips on players that are not owned by the majority of teams out there (50% owned or less).

QB:

Johnny Manziel (vs. IND, 13% owned)
First, understand that you should not be switching up your QB in most situations: this is only really a viable strategy if you have been streaming QBs in a deep league, or some catastrophic injury has occured to your #1 guy. Second, there is not yet a guarantee that Manziel starts over Hoyer or that - even if he does - he plays the whole game. Yes, you should be starting at least 15 or 16 guys over Manziel including such stunners as Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Andy Dalton. All of that said, Manziel is the type of player that can score multiple touchdowns while still racking up the rushing and passing yardage. Like him or not, that means fantasy points.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@JAX, 8% owned)
Fitzpatrick could be the smartest guy in football, but I don't believe that he has suddenly figured it all out. His success last week (358yds, 6TDs) had a lot to do with momentum and timing but you can't discount such a good performance with out wondering what happens next. Personally, I feel like Fitzpatrick can make some good throws but his team has never really clicked on all levels before like Houston is starting to. We all know about J.J. Watt's sudden emergence as a pass-catcher and have seen Hopkins break out this year the way he was supposed to in 2013. Not to mention such targets as Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are still very much Houston Texans. I don't think Fitz will be able to keep up the numbers, but I do think he'll throw for 200+ and at least 2 TDs against the Jaguars this week.

WR:

Charles Johnson (vs. NYJ, 18% owned)
We've been patiently waiting for someone on the Vikings to develop as the #1 WR and supplant Greg Jennings. It looked for a little while that Jarius Wright would be the guy and while he did perform well for a time, he never really developed a great sense of chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater and was too undersized (5'10") to succeed in some match-ups. The 6'2" Johnson runs a 4.39 40 and his other measurables are up to par as one of the new prototypical WRs in the NFL. He has played almost every snap over the last two weeks and has led the Vikings in targets. He hasn't had a true breakout game yet (best was 6 receptions for 87 yards in Week 11 @CHI), but I can see one coming with week against the Jets. Stick him in your lineup as a WR3! This is probably a one-game production, though, since the Vikings next two games are against Detroit and Miami.
Stedman Bailey (@WAS, 2% owned)
Another player trending up toward the end of the season is Stedman Bailey. Here is a deep sleeper that has woken up over the past three games with 15 receptions for over 200 yards and a TD when he had only caught the football 5 times prior to that in the season. With fellow Rams Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin only catching 2 or 3 balls per game, Bailey has no signs of slowing down against a Redskins' defense that gives up almost 24 points per game to WRs. Keep in mind that the #1 WR on the Rams this year has switched as many times as their QBs, but obviously this pick does not come without risk. In a standard scoring league this week I would rank Johnson over Bailey in Week 14, but Bailey higher over the rest of the season.

RB:

Daniel Herron (@CLE, 48% owned)
Trent Richardson has been treading water since late last year - this season he has scored a few TDs but has never rushed for more than 79 yards, despite enjoying two games with upwards of 20 carries. With Ahmad Bradshaw out for the season, Daniel "Boom" Herron moved in and has already outshined Richardson in his performances over the past two weeks. Look for Herron to continue starting at RB with a good chance to score each week. The Trent Richardson situation is an unfortunate one, but now is the time to jump on Herron for the rest of the year - as we have learned from Denver, a decent RB in a great offense will produce fantasy points, more often than not.

Johnathan Stewart (@NO, 27% owned)
The latest news is that DeAngelo Williams may not play this week with a fratured finger, and if so Johnathan Stewart should get the majority of the carries for the Panthers against the Saints. With the Saints giving up over 21 points per game to opposing RBs, this match-up looks pretty attractive on paper. Stewart has been almost flexworthy in the past 3 games, averaging almost 10 points per game in standard scoring leagues. If ever was the time to roll the dice on Stewart, it would be this week. As long as Williams doesn't play this week, Stewart is looking at between 12 and 15 carries, several receptions and a high possibility of a TD.

TE:

Jordan Reed (vs. STL, 50% owned)
At the upper end of our spectrum, Reed is owned by 50% of Yahoo leagues mostly because of the people that help onto him after drafting him high at the beginning of the season. A physically gifted TE, Reed has shown last season that he is great when healthy and being targeted by his QB. Finally, he showed up again in Week 13 @IND, putting up 9 receptions for 123 yards. Reed hasn't hit paydirt yet, but the situation is likely with McCoy targeting him heavily and the Redkins going up against a Rams' defense that can stick it to the QB. Look for at least 7 or 8 receptions again in this one.

Tim Wright (@SD, 34% owned)
This one is a special mention - it's undeniably difficult to predict when some of the talented offensive players on the Patriots will have big games. The Patriots play the Chargers in Week 14, who are one of the best teams against TEs in the entire league.. but because I think most of the coverage will be centered around Gronkowski, I'm betting that Wright has several receptions and a sneaky TD. This is a dicey play though, make no mistake - Wright either scores more than 10, or less than 2.

Defense / Special Teams:

MIN (vs. NYJ), STL (@WAS), NO (vs. CAR)

Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Now that we're in the midst of the 2014 fantasy playoffs, every point counts. This week's edition of waiver wire pickups will offer up a few of the players that have the most upside possible while hoping to avoid any fantasy fool's gold.

QB:

Johnny Manziel (vs. CIN, 23% owned)

Once again, it is really only in deep leagues, 2 QB leagues and/or dynasty/keeper leagues that we need to talk about picking up QBs on the wire - and in order to get to this point, you must have had at least a serviceable QB for most of the way. Anyway, Manziel finally looks to be getting a crack at the starting QB gig in Cleveland and for what could be a very tough divisional game with the Bengals no less. Normally I would avoid playing a QB against the Cincy defense here, who have not given up many points to opposing signal callers this year.. I love new, unpredictable QBs, however.. and the Bengals have not had much success keeping opposing RBs under control. The gameplan here will probably be to maintain a run-heavy offense and keep the defense on their toes with a mobile QB and Josh Gordon, to boot. I can see the Bengals winning this game, but not without getting burned 2 or 3 times by JFF.

Alex Smith (vs. OAK, 36% owned)

I was wrong about Fitzpatrick last week, I'll admit - sometimes it's too easy to get caught up in the implied momentum that a player may have.. generally I'll call that Fantasy Fool's Gold - that is, where a player performs very well for 1 or 2 games in a row and then falls flat on their face. Andre Holmes, Allen Hurns and in some respects Branden Oliver all belong to that category of player this year as well as many others. There's a reason why we talk about and dig into trends on the show - and that is players are much less likely to disappoint when you need them to perform if they are on a longer trajectory of successful production. Alex Smith has put up consistent, above average points over the past 3 weeks and the Chiefs visit to Oakland should provide more of the same. That's right, Alex Smith is officially above the Andy Dalton line (which is about 15 points, I think. Jason?) for the remainder of the season.

WR:

Charles Johnson (@DET, 20% owned)

We recommended Johnson last week and he certainly paid off for those of you that may have slotted him into Week 14 lineups. 4 receptions for 103 yards and 1 TD on 8 targets tells us that Johnson is going to stay the WR1 on the Vikings (over Jennings and Patterson), and enjoy the lion's share of the work each week. Here's a guy who has great measurables and would have had his breakout game last week but fumbled a 2nd possible TD at the goal-line. The tough question becomes, do you play him against the Lions? Minnesota has looked better recently but even far more prepared NFL clubs have been made to look silly by the Detroit defense. That said, he's still going to get the most targets in this game, and is still playable as a WR3 or FLEX against the Lions.

Marqise Lee (@BAL, 4% owned)

With Cecil Shorts generally unproductive and the impressive rookie Allen Robinson on injured reserve, the bright spots in the Jags' receiving core are some combination of Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns. Of those two, Lee has been more productive recently. Over the past 3 games, he has put up 14 receptions for 194 yards and 1 TD. The Ravens are actually giving up the most points of any team to opposing WRs due to some major injuries in their secondary, so I would advise Lee as the sneakiest play out there this week. Almost guaranteed to be available in redraft leagues, Lee could easily put up great numbers in garbage time.

Fool's Gold:

Donte Moncrief, Stedman Bailey

RB:

Chris Johnson (@TEN, 48% owned)

What is this, 2009? With Jonathan Stewart and Chris Johnson both performing at a higher level than normal, it's easy to forget that they have too often been a fantasy wasteland in the past. Still, all that matters in these last few games of the season is their production NOW. Johnson meets back up with his previous team and may have a little more motivation than normal to perform well. We've been watching him climb back up to a full split with Chris Ivory and a couple of his runs over the past two weeks looked really nice. I'm tempted to call Fool's Gold on Johnson but I won't - I think he continues his recent production for one more game against the Titans' awful rushing defense. Mark him down this week for what will only be his 3rd TD of 2014.

Jonathan Stewart (@TB, 41% owned)

Talk about trending up - Stewart is one guy (along with Daniel "Boom" Herron) that we were really pushing in Week 14. Really the only thing that could get in his way at this point is if DeAngelo Williams does end up playing - Rivera doesn't care what Stewart's statline looks like and [as we all should know by now] you don't play a RB if they're part of an active 3-headed monster. But they do play Tampa Bay this week and Cam Newton may or may not be playing depending on the speed of his recovery from a car accident earlier today.. both things that slightly tilt the scale in Stewart's favor.

Fool's Gold:

James Starks, Montee Ball

TE:

Mychal Rivera (@KC, 24% owned)

After the top few tight ends, it just gets messy. At this point, you really need to take a look at the scheme that you're going up against in order to pick the right guy. Guys like Coby Fleener, Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce have really taken a step up in consistency but if you're reading this section of the waiver wire pickups.. you probably can't get one of those guys from the wire. Mychal Rivera has not been consistent but the Raiders play the Chiefs in Week 15, who have one of the league's best passing defenses. What does this mean? Derek Carr is going to dink and dunk his way to a good game this week for Rivera. Definitely more valuable in PPR leagues, though.

Fool's Gold:

Jared Cook

Defense / Special Teams:

BAL (vs. JAX), KC (vs. OAK), CAR (vs. TAM), NYG (vs. WAS), NYJ (@TEN)

The end of the road for most fantasy teams is this week's championship game. Listening to the right advice can make or break your team and I'd like to try to help you across the finish line by providing you with a few great plays for Week 16. As always, quite a few guys that may have been helping you throughout the season are probably headed to IR or underperforming at this point in the season. So who do we turn to? Let's find out..

QB:

The drop-off for QB ownership is a steep one. Right around Andy Dalton, QBs are either quite a bit better or quite a bit worse. Actually, let's include Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in that.. we can call it the 'QB Triangle'. If one of these guys is your starter (in 1, or 2 QB leagues), you've got serious problems to address. Although I think that Johnny Manziel (37% owned) will have a good performance eventually, he looked sufficiently bad for me to avoid him for the remainder of the season at least. Alex Smith (37% owned) on the other hand, had a great game with 297 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders. Smith has been a consistent member of the drinkfive waiver wire list and should continue to do well against the Steelers pass defense which is still susceptible to big plays on the outside.  Smith has more points this season than Kaepernick or Dalton and almost as many as Newton and Romo. If you need help at the position, don't sleep on him.

WR:

Much like the 'QB' triangle, we have a similar collection of players that should not be owned in Cordarelle Patterson, Denard Robinson and We Welker all hovering around the 50% mark. But can we find some real talent at the position if we dig a little deeper? Well, once more, Charles Johnson (32% owned) had a good game and put up 5 receptions for 72 yards against the great Lions pass defense. Remember that he's a rookie, but with this year's draft class.. why not another standout receiver? Clearly the Vikes' #1 guy at this point, look for a similar performance but with a great chance of a TD against a slipping Dolphins pass defense this week. Harry Douglas (27% owned) is an interesting pickup if he's still available in your league, because he had a great game and Julio Jones may be out again this week. Although Coach Mike Smith says he expects him to suit up - he is not to be trusted. I keep hearing Cecil Shorts (41% owned) and Stedman Bailey (14% owned) but I don't believe it and you shouldn't either. Both guys are too unpredictable this year and on teams that are equally difficult to predict.

RB:

Now that we're comparing what players exist around that 50% mark at each position, let's look at RBs. Got any guesses? Due to dual-eligibility, Denard Robinson is here again of course, but not including Robinson we have Doug Martin, Ben Tate and Terrance West. What a great collection of running backs that is! The decline in ownership is much less steep but we can definitely pull some talent out of the pool here. Carlos Hyde (35% owned) was running very well last week before hurting his back on a play. Looks like he'll play ahead of Gore at this point, though. He is worth a pickup in every league, even if you're not going to start him.. just so your opponent can't start him against you. With Gore likely out with a concussion, Hyde will monopolize the carries if he plays. Kerwynn Williams (18% owned) was an unlikely candidate to perform well last week due to a committee backfield and good Rams' rushing defense, but he still went off for 75 yards on 15 carries and caught 2 passes for 11 yards. Grice looks to be a non-factor and Stepfan Taylor will split the carries but Williams is the better bet for a TD. Bad news? Seattle. And they've been playing well. I like Williams but would stay away from this situation unless you're desperate.

TE:

Yeah I know, you just can't wait.. ok, I'll tell you. The 50%'ers at TE this season are Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph and Charles Clay. Wow, a couple of those guys were definitely taken pretty high up in drafts this preseason. Moving on, Mychal Rivera (26% owned) is still not owned in many leagues this year and presents a good option about 1/2 of the time. Better in PPR leagues because of the volume he gets, Rivera is still a good bit better than the TEs owned less than him. Jermaine Gresham (9% owned) just scored a TD last week and has been getting consistent targets all year. Also, he plays against Denver who has given up quite a few points to opposing TEs. Unfortunately, he was inactive for last week's game against the Browns even though he was warming up on the field. Apparently some kind of toe injury, reports say that Gresham should be starting again against the Broncos in Week 16. I actually like him a lot here if you think he'll be a go.

Defense / Special Teams:

Here I like  Carolina (vs. CLE), Miami (vs. MIN), Green Bay (@TB) and Jacksonville (vs. TEN)

It is no wonder the NFL is the most popular sport in America. Week 1 is fresh in the books and the drama and excitement is still a buzz around the water cooler. Seattle goes down in St. Louis where we are never surprised to see a shootout, Indianapolis was the first casualty of the stout Rex Ryan coached Bills Defense and Peyton Manning has to be wondering “why he came back one more year” (read to the jingle of his Nationwide commercials). Fantasy owners are already feeling the pain too after injuries brought down players like T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Andre Ellington and Ladarius Green. Fear not fellow fantasy family! The early weeks of the football season bring with them a wealth of waiver wire potential.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF – The Bills shocked the heartland with a week 1 win over the visiting Colts. At the helm was first year starter Tyrod Taylor. He went 14-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards on the ground. The Bills were obviously cautious with Taylor only having 19 passing attempts; however he showed confidence with a 51 yard bomb to Percy Harvin. Taylor is only owned in 10% of leagues. Next week he has a favorable match-up against a questionable New England secondary. His dual threat talents reduce the risk associated with his lack of passing attempts.

Alex Smith, KC – Alex Smith is only owned in 20% of leagues right now. He completed 22 of 33 passes for 243 yards with 3 touchdowns in week 1. Alex Smith’s value is increased this year with an upgrade in weapons like Jeremy Maclin and the return of Travis Kelce. Kelce was on full display in week 1 with huge yards and 2 of the 3 Smith touchdown passes. Smith has a good week 2 match-up hosting Denver on Thursday night. Thursday games tend to be sloppy; however Alex Smith excels at protecting the football so he offers limited risk.

Other players to consider are Andy Dalton (owned in 26%) who, like Alex Smith, has a big Tight End target in Tyler Eifert. Nick Foles (owned in 13%) with an average of 11 yards per pass in week 1 and favorable match-ups against Washington, Pittsburgh and Green Bay in 3 of his next 4 games.

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, PIT – The Pittsburgh at New England season opener feels like it was a long time ago after the excitement of Sunday. One of the standouts I remember from that game was DeAngelo Williams. He gained 127 yards on 21 attempts and looked very fresh with surprising bursts of speed. Andre Ellington owners should look to Williams for a week 2 start against San Francisco. It’ll be his last game with any value as LeVeon Bell is due back in week 3, but featured backs are limited in the NFL these days. Williams is only owned in 37% of leagues.

Chris Johnson, ARI – Andre Ellington didn’t even make it through one game before making his fantasy owners pay the price. While it appears to be good news that he isn’t lost for the season his owners will be looking for a replacement for a few weeks. Owners don’t have to look far as Chris Johnson will be the guy stepping in. Bruce Arians is likely to lean on the veteran over the rookie David Johnson. Chris Johnson is long removed from his CJ2K season but he does have a favorable match-up against Chicago in week 2.

Other players to consider Bishop Sankey (owned in 47%) because of his ownership percentage he wasn’t a featured waiver pick up but if he is available in your league you should jump on that immediately. Danny Woodhead (owned in 50%) is another guy who doesn’t make the cut as a waiver feature but should be owned, proving to be the touchdown vulture in week 1.

Wide Receivers

Donte Moncrief, IND – The Colts got some positive news today regarding T.Y. Hilton however he is still likely to miss at least week 2. Moncrief proved to be a highly targeted option for Andrew Luck in the week 1 disappointment. He had 6 receptions on 11 targets for 46 yards with a touchdown. The week 2 match-up is tough against the Jets secondary but the Colts offense is designed to be high flying. The fact that Moncrief had so many targets points to a trust between him and Luck. In week 2 Moncrief will have more opportunities to make an impact. He is only owned in 11% of leagues.

James Jones, GB – When Jordy Nelson went down for the season there were question marks regarding who would step up. The late James Jones signing only added intrigue but week 1 answered any questions as to who would complete the Packers receiving core. Jones caught 2 touchdowns against the Bears in week one and caught all of his four targets for 51 yards. I expect to see Cobb and Adams seeing a bulk of the targets, but Jones proved his worth in the red zone and that simply cannot be ignored in fantasy formats. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are also known to spread the ball around so Jones solidifying that WR3 role on the team makes him a legit WR3 in fantasy too. He is only owned in 31% of leagues.

Terrance Williams, DAL – Dez Bryant is lost for 4-6 weeks and Terrance Williams will step up as the #1 in Dallas. In week 1 Williams saw 8 targets coming down with 5 of them for 60 yards. He had a chance at a TD too but dropped it. Williams is my favorite WR pick up this week simply because of the role he is moving into. He is owned in 57% of leagues so if he is available you need to act fast prioritize him high. Terrance Williams and Dallas has a very friendly next four weeks as they face Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans and New England; All with suspect pass defenses.

Other players to keep an eye on are Percy Harvin (owned in 41%) who caught all 5 of his targets in week 1. Tyler Lockett (owned in 30%) has more to prove before being used regularly but his special teams play this week makes him a good pick up for teams looking to add depth early in the season.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, PIT – Play-making tight ends are very limited but week 1 proved just how valuable they can be in fantasy football. See Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert or Rob Gronkowski for proof. If you are finding yourself in a disappointing jam heading into week 2 look at Heath Miller. He caught 8 of his 11 targets in week 1 for 84 yards. Miller was a chain mover for Roethlisberger and will see an increased roll while Martavis Bryant finishes his suspension. Miller is only owned in 49% of leagues.

Other players to look for are Ladarius Green (owned in 20%). If you have the room on your roster you might want to make this move as he looked great in week 1 with 5 receptions for 74 yards and touchdown.

Kickers

Brandon McManus, DEN – It is tough to go wrong with a Denver kicker in the thin air. McManus nailed two 50+ yarders in week 1 on top of a 40+ and 30+. A good start for a guy with accuracy concerns. Next week Denver leaves the thin air for KC on Thursday night. I expect to see the Denver offense bounce back and move the ball, but Thursday night games are interesting as shorter prep time can often lead to stalled drives. Good for kickers. At the very least you’re picking up a guy who has 7 more games in Denver. He is only owned in 19% of leagues.

Josh Brown, NYG – Fantasy strategy allows for the kicker position to often time be shifted by match up. If you follow such strategy than Josh Brown is your guy to pick up this week. He was perfect in week 1 that included 40+ and 50+ field goals. His upcoming schedule is favorable against the weak defenses of Atlanta and Washington. He is owned in 14% of leagues.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens defense kept Peyton Manning and the Bronco’s out of the end zone all day. They pressured Manning all day sacking him 4 times and disrupting 6 more pass attempts. Losing Suggs is going to hurt a little bit but as a unit the Ravens looked good and should manage to overcome the loss. They have a very favorable week 2 against Oakland with favorable match-ups in weeks 3 and 4 against Cincinnati and Cleveland too.