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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 9
09
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 9

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

252 Yards from Scrimmage

 

For the second week in a row, Dalvin Cook reached 200 yards from scrimmage in another dominating performance. This time around, he only needed 22 carries to hit 206 rushing yards, but he still added 2 catches for 46 yards for good measure. He did “only” find the end zone twice, but it was enough to be the top scorer for the second week in a row with 38.2 points. Most weeks I wonder if someone will turn in a performance on Monday night that makes one of my entries a moot point. This week is not one of those times. Cook is now the RB1 on the season with a 10-point lead over Alvin Kamara, who turned in a mere 49 yards from scrimmage in a game where his team put up 38 points. Cook has 13 touchdowns in just 7 games and is basically single-handedly dragging his team out of the basement of the NFC North. An honorable mention goes to Christian McCaffrey, who did not skip a beat and put up 32.1 points in his return, continuing his average of scoring 2 TDs per game. Unfortunately, it sounds like McCaffrey is headed to the bench with another injury.

 

2% Ownership in Fleaflicker Leagues

 

There were a number of familiar names on the top WR list of the week, but the one above all the others was definitely new to me. Richie James, who is owned in just 2% of Fleaflicker leagues, and was started in zero leagues that you or I are in, had 3 receptions over 40 yards, including his 41-yard touchdown in what can only be described as garbage time while the 49ers were down 34-10 late in the 4th quarter. Fantasy football, however, does not care what the score is on the field, so James gets credit for all the 28.9 points that he earned last Thursday night. James just barely edged out Tyreek Hill, who put up his first 100 receiving yard game of the season and caught the 100th (and 101st) touchdown pass of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Hill has been around for all of them – he also caught Mahomes’ first TD pass back in 2018. Mahomes is the fastest QB to 100 passing TDs, beating Dan Marino’s mark by 4 games.

 

3rd Week as the Top TE

 

Travis Kelce has been the top TE on a weekly basis for 1/3rd of the season so far. Not too bad when you consider just how volatile the position is in fantasy football. Kelce is basically a lock for the top spot when he reaches the 20-point mark. This week, and last’s, 20.9-point performances were good for the lead, and it wasn’t even close. He also put up 20.8 in Week 5 and led the league. On the season, Kelce is just dominating the position and is in tier 1 all by himself and it’s not even close. You might say that tier 2 is his as well, considering he has 139.9 points on the season and the next closest player is over 50 points behind him. Darren Waller has quietly been the TE2 on the season without ever finishing in the top 2 of any given week. Waller leads his team in both receptions and receiving yards, though being 8 games into the season and not having a single receiving leader over 400 yards is nothing to write home about.

 

8th Most Rushing Yards in the League

 

Kyler Murray did all he could on Sunday to win but lost to a very surprising Miami team that is playing way beyond any level that people expected this season. Murray added another 106 rushing yards to his already gaudy numbers this season. For the year, he has the 8th most rushing yards of any player in the league. He’s averaging 7.14 yards per carry. If he never threw a pass, he would be the RB13– 102.3 points come from his rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. As it stands, Murray is the QB1 on the season with 240.5 points in 8 games. He leads a tier 1 of QBs that include 3 other players, all of whom deserve MVP votes so far this year. Patrick Mahomes got a shout out earlier, but really the major props go to Josh Allen who shut up his critics for a week with his 44-34 win over the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was the only one of the group to struggle, turning the ball over 4 times and scoring his second-lowest total of the season, 24.1 points.

 

8 Rushing Yards

 

Tom Brady suffered the worst defeat of his career (35 points) last night and everybody was invited to watch it on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers combined for just 8 total rushing yards in a game where none of their players reached double-digit fantasy points. Brady had just 209 passing yards and 3 INTs as he could only muster a late field goal for his team to keep them from being shut out. On the other side, Drew Brees was the only one with a good fantasy game, despite his team putting up 38 points. Brees found the end zone 4 times reaching 22.68 fantasy points, nearly 10 more than the next highest player on his team. Of note in this game was the fact that it contained the two all-time passing touchdown leaders in the NFL. Brees and Brady keep trading the top spot, but this week it was all Brees. He’s now in the lead 564-561.

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 12
30
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 12

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

1 Pass Completion

 

A trio of position players completed passes this week. Perhaps, I should be more specific that they each completed one pass to their own team, but more on that in a moment. On Thursday, we saw Logan Thomas, a TE on a Football Team, hit Terry McLaurin on a 28-yard completion in the first quarter, the longest pass play of the day for Washington. Washington only really needed Antonio Gibson on Thursday, but we’ll get to him in a little bit. Cole Beasley joined in the fun on Sunday, throwing a 20-yard pass to Gabriel Davis in the Bills’ victory over the Chargers. Which brings us to the more infamous player who completed only one pass on Sunday. This, of course, needs a qualifier, because Kendall Hinton did complete two passes to the wrong team, and only one to his own team. A stat line of 1 for 9 with 2 INTs is not something I thought I would see in the NFL in a game that didn’t include some sort of blizzard or hurricane. Here we are, in 2020, where a practice squad player gets to start at QB because he was a backup QB in college.

 

51.4 Fantasy Points

 

We’re not here for tiny numbers, generally speaking, though sometimes they can be fun. Let’s break down the top fantasy performance of the season. Tyreek Hill did most of his damage in the first quarter, coming just a few yards shy of the all-time record for receiving yards in a single quarter. Hill started off with a 34-yard completion on the very first play of the game. He added another 23 yards on the same drive and had 57 yards total before 2 minutes had elapsed in the game. Two drives later, Hill got loose behind the defense and caught a 75-yard touchdown, his 6th receiving TD from Patrick Mahomes of 50 yards or more. A good quarter, you say? There was still 7 minutes left to go! On the next Chiefs drive, Hill caught 3 more passes, capping it off with a 44-yard TD reception. Hill ended the quarter with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. In comparison, Hill slacked off the rest of the game and finished with “only” 13 receptions for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

3 Touchdowns on the Ground

 

Tyreek Hill wasn’t the only player to find the end zone three times in Week 12. A pair of running backs managed that feat. First, on Thursday, Antonio Gibson was all the offense that Washington needed to defeat the Cowboys in their annual “why do the same teams always play on Thanksgiving?” afternoon naptime entertainment. Gibson started the game just fine, scoring early to put fantasy owners at ease. It was his finish that was truly impressive. He had fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 23 and 37 yards to turn his average day into the best game of his rookie season. A pick-six by Washington on the play following Gibson’s last touchdown put away the game for the Football Team and also buried the Cowboys' last playoff hopes for this year. Gibson was outdone on Sunday by Derrick Henry, who did almost all of his damage in the first half against the Colts. Henry finished with 178 yards and 3 more touchdowns. This brings his season totals to a league-leading 1,257 rush yards and 12 touchdowns, just one behind Dalvin Cook.

 

1 WR Over 1,000 Yards

 

We’re 12 weeks into the season, so while almost every team has played 11 games, we have just one wide receiver averaging 100 yards per game, Davante Adams at 100.9 yds/gamee – a definite departure from the high-flying passing numbers that we’ve seen in recent years. Tyreek Hill is the only WR who has cracked the 1,000-yard mark (1,081) and it took a monster game from him on Sunday to do so. His teammate, Travis Kelce, who is the TE1, 2, and 3 is second in the league in receiving yards with 978. On the rushing side, we have two players averaging 100 yards per game – the aforementioned Derrick Henry with 114 yds/game and Dalvin Cook just behind him at 113 yds/game. The lack of a truly dominant top end in fantasy football has probably prevented teams from running away with it and made waiver wire moves and starting the right guys in the right matchups even more important in this chaotic football season.

 

23 Fantasy Kicker Fantasy Points

 

In a surprise to no one, kicker ownership is completely off track. This week’s top kicker was Younghoe Koo of Atlanta who went 5/5 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points for a whopping 23 points, second on his team to only the D/ST, who put up 28 fantasy points on their own. Of course, the Raiders turning the ball over 5 times helped, but I digress, this is about the ridiculous ownership numbers of kickers. Going by our drinkfive writer’s league, Koo is the only kicked owned (by yours truly) of the top 12 kickers this week. In fact, only 5 of the top 20 are on a team at all. The average ownership in Fleaflicker of the top 12 kickers is only 34.5%. So have fun picking a kicker for next week, I suggest that whatever you do, just swap out the kicker you have for someone at random!

 

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 1
14
September

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 1

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

8-0

It’s good to be a team out west. Following Monday night’s victory by the Raiders, both the NFC and AFC West divisions are a perfect 8-0. They stand in stark contrast to the NFC North, which started 0-4. The Raiders certainly had the most exciting victory of the bunch, but honorable mentions go to Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes kept his perfect September streak alive while moving to 35 TDs and 0 INTs during September. Kudos also go to the Chargers, who sit in last place after a very tough victory over the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks share their last-place standing, after having a ho-hum victory over a non-conference team in Indianapolis. 



3 Rookie WR Touchdowns

The three wide receivers who were taken in the first round of the 2021 draft all had an immediate impact on their respective teams. Devonta Smith started off the scoring for the Eagles, finding the end zone on an 18-yard pass from Jalen Hurts halfway through the first quarter. It would up being all the scoring the Eagles would need against an anemic Falcons team. Not to be outdone, Ja’Marr Chase caught a 50 yard TD from his former (and current) teammate Joe Burrow as time was running down in the first half of their game against Minnesota. Chase caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, so clearly, the “lines on the ball” thing was a bit overblown. We should all cut rookies some slack when they’re accidentally candid with a reporter. Based on the public’s reaction, we don’t have to worry about him being candid any time in the near future. In the afternoon slate of games, Jaylen Waddle got in on the fun, scoring from 3 yards out early in the second half. All of these rookies’ teams won on Sunday.


0 TDs

Week 1’s top scoring fantasy RB managed to score the most points of the week and didn’t even find the end zone. Of course, it’s a familiar name - Christian McCaffrey put up 23.2 fantasy points, a low total for the top scorer of the week. He had 187 yards from scrimmage, or 49% of his team’s total offense. Add 9 receptions to that, and he had enough points to lead a week where only 4 other players managed to top the 20 point mark. Most notable in that group are Jamaal Williams and De’Andre Swift, who were avoided like the plague in most drafts and seemed to fall pretty far until being picked late. Both Williams and Swift had 8 receptions, over 100 yards from scrimmage, and scored a touchdown in the Lions’ opening day loss to the 49ers.


12-100 Yard Receiving Games

The NFL truly is a passing league in 2021. There were 12 wide receivers who hit the 100-yard mark, versus only 5 running backs who hit 100 rushing yards. Leading the way was one of the top WRs picked in the draft, Tyreek Hill, who put up a massive 197 yards on 11 receptions and 15 targets. He also found the end zone in the Chiefs' comeback victory, and thus assuring the Chiefs multiple mentions in this column, as is tradition. One rookie joined the group over 100 yards, the aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, squeaking by at 101 yards. An old favorite also found himself in the group - Antonio Brown, who put up 5 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in his best opening day performance since 2017. Finally, an honorable mention must go to Darren Waller, who cracked the 100-yard mark on his game-tying TD in the 4th quarter of last night’s game and managed to be the only tight end to hit the century mark in week 1 of this season.


5 Passing TDs

...And 148 passing yards. What? The Jameis Winston era in New Orleans (via Jacksonville) has begun with a stat line that the NFL has never seen. Never before has someone thrown for 5 TDs on less than 150 passing yards. Along with zero INTs, I suppose that Lasik surgery worked wonders. Winston had 14 completions on 20 attempts, totaling 29.62 fantasy points, good for the QB4 on the week. He is currently owned in only 56% of Fleaflicker leagues. The QB3 on the week, Jared Goff, is only owned in 40% of leagues! The wire is going to be hot this week. But I digress. The story of this game was the Packers scoring only 3 points. I don’t think that there’s much to worry about on the offensive side for Green Bay, but I do think their defense can be exploited in fantasy matchups all season long.

 

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Week 6 Injury Apocalypse
13
October

Week 6 Injury Apocalypse

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Bring out your dead! It's one of the worst weeks in recent memory in the NFL for injuries (please don't count them on me), so let's have a not-so-quick roundup of all of the fantasy relevant guys who we need to monitor going in to Week 6.

 

Quarterbacks

 

  • Russell Wilson - Wilson’s injury on Thursday night prevented him from completing the game. He has a torn tendon as well as a fracture/dislocation of his middle finger on his throwing hand. He had surgery to repair it and is expected to be out until Week 10 at the earliest. Seattle has a bye in Week 9. In relief, Geno Smith immediately led the Seahawks on a 98 yard scoring drive, so that was encouraging. The Seahawks fantasy players remain startable, but get a bit of a downgrade across the board. Geno Smith should be picked up in superflex leagues as bye weeks are going to start hitting everybody.

 

  • Daniel Jones - Jones suffered a concussion and was visibly woozy/dazed/stumbling on the field after the play. He was later carted off the field and Mike Glennon finished the game. Glennon finished the game with enough passing action to encourage you to start Kadarius Toney, and possibly Sterling Shepard if he returns. Jones did not practice today but is apparently “on track with everything” according to head coach Joe Judge. Jones returning is a bump for Toney, Booker and Shepard, the only likely fantasy starters on the Giants.

 

  • Trey Lance - Lance suffered a sprained knee on Sunday. So far, his timeline is very murky because the 49ers have a bye this week, so are not required to report any injury statuses. Jimmy G could return based on Lance’s play as a passer this year so far, so this situation is clear as mud. Pay attention to who’s practicing with the ones next week to see who the starter will be in Week 7.

 

  • Tom Brady - Oh if wishing could make it true. But seriously, Tom Brady hurt his thumb and has a quick turnaround on Thursday night. All reports indicate that he’s not 100% but will be starting tomorrow. Right now that offense is working at nearly peak efficiency, so even 75% of Tom Brady should result in plenty of fantasy production from the normal guys.

 

Running Backs

 

  • Saquon Barkley - Barkley had a sprained ankle that swelled up pretty quick and was on display for TV on Sunday. Nice camera work, guys. He apparently dodged any major injury and we do not have a timetable for his return. Since this is the case, you should go into Week 6 assuming that he will not play and it will be Devontae Booker in his place, who scored 2 TDs in relief in Week 5.

 

  • Damien Harris - Harris exited Sunday’s game twice with a chest injury. He also fumbled on the goal line, but was still given work, showing just how much Belichick thinks of the other RBs on his roster. Harris did not practice today but is day to day at the moment, so he will probably be fine to go on Sunday since he avoided a significant injury. Keep an eye on his practice status, and he’s an RB2/Flex option if he starts on Sunday against the Cowboys.

 

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire - CEH has been put on the IR list already with an MCL sprain, so he’s out for at least 3 weeks. Darrel Williams should be the main RB in his place, getting almost all of the work going forward. Jerick McKinnon is also available for the Chiefs, but he only has 4 total touches on the season, so he is firmly a backup to Williams for now.

 

  • Christian McCaffrey - CMC was practicing last week and came down to a game time decision and ultimately he did not play on Sunday. This week was his originally targeted return time, so I like his chances to return in Week 6 against the Vikings. He practiced again today. If he goes, he’s going to get his normal workload. If he doesn’t, then you can safely roll Chuba Hubbard out there for one more week. Keep an eye on the inactives ahead of gametime before making the final decision on this one. 

 

  • Chris Carson - Carson missed Week 5 with a neck injury, but avoided the IR which should mean that he’s back soon. He did not practice today, but Pete Carroll said that the plan is for him to return to practice tomorrow. With Russell Wilson out for a while, it’s a great spot for the Seattle RBs to get even more carries than normal. If Carson cannot go, it’ll be Alex Collins for another week - he received 15 carries last week and has Flex value against the Steelers on Sunday night.

 

  • Joe Mixon / Samaje Perine - These two split carries in Sunday’s game 12/15 with more of a 60/30 snap percentage split. However, after the game, Perine was placed on the covid list and that sets up Mixon to have a full workload on this Sunday against the lowly Lions. If you have Mixon, it should be back to normal for him. Perine is droppable in most leagues.

 

  • Dalvin Cook - Cook missed the game in Week 5, and Alexander Mattison proved once again to be the best backup RB in fantasy football. Cook did practice all week before being ruled out, so even though he practiced today, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be starting this week. The Vikings are on bye in Week 7, so it might be that they hold him out through the bye week just to be sure.

 

Wide Receivers

 

  • Tyreek Hill - Hill was reported to have a knee injury which turned out to be a quad contusion. He is not practicing today, and obviously a leg injury on this speedster is something that needs to be treated seriously. Keep an eye on his status through the week. If he does not practice, I do not expect him to play on Sunday. Their matchup against Washington is juicy though - they’re giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs, so I would start him if he is going to play. If he does not, Mecole Hardman, who was second on the team with 12 targets last week, should be the main beneficiary. Travis Kelce will be heavily involved as usual and Darrel Williams should see plenty of targets. It’ll be up to one of the many other targets on the team to step up - 6 other players saw 2 or fewer targets on Sunday. Perhaps a place for Josh Gordon to step up? Unlikely, but it’s fun to feed into the hype.

 

  • Kenny Golladay - Here’s our token Giants entry for this position as well. They really got battered on Sunday. Golladay suffered a hyperextended knee, and he was finally getting warmed up this season on the Giants too. He’s expected to miss at least week 6, but was not placed on the IR. Kadarius Toney is the new hotness on the team, and Sterling Shepard could be coming back with Darius Slayton, this muddling the target share for the Giants. Daniel Jones’ status is also an issue for the WRs.

 

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster - You know an injury is serious when the team immediately signs whoever is on the top of the free agent pile - this time it was Anthony Miller. Juju is going to have shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of 2021. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool will continue to operate as the 1-2 on that offense. Juju was not contributing much this year, and was not fantasy relevant anymore, anyways.

 

  • A.J. Brown / Julio Jones - A.J. Brown returned last week and was on the field for 64% of snaps. He didn’t have any setbacks, so he should be back above 80% next week. Julio missed his second straight game last week and it was a hamstring injury, the typical kind of injury he’s had all his career. He is practicing today, so he might be back, but I’m not enthusiastic about starting him immediately once he returns. For now this team is all Derrick Henry and there’s not enough production for two starting WRs anyways.

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